Trump could determine future of Pattaya

[reader]

NOTE -- I think Barry is giving Trump far too much credit. Pattaya will survive quite well and sea will remain blue--well, brown.

From Pattaya Mail

By Barry Kenyon

The first reaction in Bangkok to Trump’s new international tariffs was to assume they were an April Fool’s joke delivered a day late. The United States is Thailand’s biggest export market and, if a deal can’t be reached, billions of cash income in any currency you care to mention is at potential risk. The 36 percent tariff on imports to the US was much bigger than the Federation of Thai Industries predicted, but China, India, Vietnam and Cambodia amongst other Asian countries were also singled out.

One consequence, if the world chooses to retreat into 19th century trade wars, will be to send shocks to Asia’s international travel ecosystem which leaves tourist cities such as Pattaya exposed. If world trade shrinks, business travel declines as reflected in Thailand’s MICE conventions and exhibitions initiative which has to date been very successful in Pattaya. Then global mobility is suppressed as airlines reduce routes, the market for longterm visas becomes smaller and hotels see vacancies mushroom.

The worldwide holiday market also shrinks as it depends on discretionary income, that is what people have to spend after paying their bills. Tariff wars are usually accompanied by both unemployment and inflation, both of which discourage vacations abroad. Travel and Tour World is already predicting a negative impact on Asian beach resorts in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia as international numbers shrink. Cruises are another likely victim as cabins become harder to fill.

Pattaya may not be an industrial hub, but it is adjacent to the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), the advanced manufacturing and export base with infrastructure designed to attract international investors from many countries. In the past, the United States and the EEC have been linked through US investment in areas such as renewable energy and other strategic industries. US vice-president JD Vance has already ruled out that kind of international cooperation in future.

Continues at

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/news/donald-trump-could-determine-the-future-of-pattaya-496453

[bkkmfj2648]

5 minutes ago, reader said:

Pattaya will survive quite well and sea will remain blue--well, brown.

And please don't ask why the Pattaya sea has a coffee brown tinge to it. But, every day I see many tourists swimming in it.

Note that there is a nearby alternative where you can experience true beautiful white sand beaches with transparent turquoise seawater.

 

If you still insist on coffee brown water, they do serve hot or cold coffee at the Koh Larn beach - but it is served in a civilized cup.

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, reader said:

US vice-president JD Vance has already ruled out that kind of international cooperation in future.

 

him and his boss are changing mind more often than most people underwear

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, reader said:

 

The worldwide holiday market also shrinks as it depends on discretionary income, that is what people have to spend after paying their bills. Tariff wars are usually accompanied by both unemployment and inflation, both of which discourage vacations abroad. Travel and Tour World is already predicting a negative impact on Asian beach resorts in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia as international numbers shrink. Cruises are another likely victim as cabins become harder to fill.

 

hope that negative impact will also be reflected in reduced Long Time prices in Bangkok and to lesser extend , in Pattaya

[bkkmfj2648]

6 minutes ago, vinapu said:

hope that negative impact will also be reflected in reduced Long Time prices

Perhaps not, as per @macaroni21 excellent thread regarding tariffs on the equalization of MB prices globally - especially in the USA, where he states that the MB price could be driven down to match the Thailand price.

[jason1975]

1 hour ago, vinapu said:

hope that negative impact will also be reflected in reduced Long Time prices in Bangkok and to lesser extend , in Pattaya

Fingers crossed! I miss the days of 2k ST and 3k LT which was just 3 years ago

[spoon]

1 hour ago, bkkmfj2648 said:

Perhaps not, as per @macaroni21 excellent thread regarding tariffs on the equalization of MB prices globally - especially in the USA, where he states that the MB price could be driven down to match the Thailand price.

 

How i wish that would be true. 

[10tazione]

3 hours ago, reader said:

If world trade shrinks, business travel declines as reflected in Thailand’s MICE conventions and exhibitions initiative which has to date been very successful in Pattaya.

I didnt know that. Is that so because Pattaya is such a family friendly destination and business people love to bring their families along or is it because ...

[reader]

No business person inright mind would bring family  to sin city.

[vinapu]

11 hours ago, jason1975 said:

Fingers crossed! I miss the days of 2k ST and 3k LT which was just 3 years ago

with careful selection it still can be had 

[jason1975]

1 minute ago, vinapu said:

with careful selection it still can be had 

Possible to find on Grndr. But cannot get such prices from bars in Bangkok

[vinapu]

6 minutes ago, jason1975 said:

Possible to find on Grndr. But cannot get such prices from bars in Bangkok

I wouldn't take even most attractive guy from Grindr for overnight unless I knew him from somewhere else already.

[PeterRS]

On 4/5/2025 at 7:47 PM, vinapu said:

hope that negative impact will also be reflected in reduced Long Time prices in Bangkok and to lesser extend , in Pattaya

I suspect that is merely wishful thinking. Isn't the Thai way of coping with reduced income to raise prices, not reduce them to encourage more  business?

Around 12 years ago on this forum, I extolled the virtues and products of the British Pie Shop not far from Sathorn. It even made Green Curry pies (very tasty) and a host of sinful dessert pies. A year or so later it had to close in that location when the landlord upped the rent. I frequently pass that area and noticed yesterday that in all the time since the Pie Shop had to leave, it has remained completely vacant! It is not in a section of the soi that would be redeveloped for condos or whatever. So the property owner has lost roughly 11 years of rent when the Pie Shop could have remained at least for a few years more. That's the Thai way!

There are still various pie shops around when searching the internet. But all different from the one I used to patronise. I assume it must have gone out of business.

[macaroni21]

In response to the title of this thread, it is probably true, albeit in an indirect way, that the Trump administration's actions will impact tourism in Pattaya.

But certainly not only in Pattaya.

More and more forecasts are coming about the likelihood of a global recession. Some countries will of course suffer more severely than others, but recessions depress travel and tourism.

 

[macaroni21]

On 4/5/2025 at 9:00 PM, bkkmfj2648 said:

Perhaps not, as per @macaroni21 excellent thread regarding tariffs on the equalization of MB prices globally - especially in the USA, where he states that the MB price could be driven down to match the Thailand price.

Wait! 

You're reading too much into what I wrote. I was using the rentboy scenario to show how (almost) impossible it would be for the US to restore trade balance through re-industrialisation. I wasn't predicting cheap rent boy prices in the US.

US products in many industries just aren't competitive in the global markets at current exchange rates. To become competitive, the USD has to fall dramatically (the rentboy example), but such a dramatic fall will have  a zillion consequences in a zillion areas, not least of which is the total loss of credibility of the USD as a reserve currency.

Having said that, in history, sometimes the impossible happens and the USD may one day be as much a joke as the Nigerian naira.

Short of that...

My point was that Trump's hope of reviving domestic manufacturing in the US can only go so far: substitution of now-highly-taxed imports. But the made-in-USA products won't be competitive in world trade (like the American rentboy) due to wage levels , cost of living, etc, and so domestic manufacturers in the US will face upper limits in terms of their economies of scale. This in turn means they may not be able to get their cost-per-unit down. Then vicious cycle: not viable for exports.

Under such a scenario where US manufacturers can't export much, how will the US get trade balance? It has to make permanent the restriction of imports.

Also, American consumers will pay more for the the US-made product than consumers elsewhere pay for the Chinese/Korean/Brazilian/Romanian-made product.

Coming back to the rentboy business, we see Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, Philippines and even Madagascar "exporting" their rentboys to meet Thai import demand. Based on reports here, we've even heard of Russian and Ukrainian rentboys. The Big Tool bar in Pattaya has Russian and Brazilian dancers. I have heard of Pakistani and Nepali rentboys in Malaysia, and Chinese, Filipino and Vietnamese boys in Singapore.

Is the US rentboy prepared to "export" himself to Thailand, Bali, Rio or Medellin to work for local levels of pricing? I think the answer is no. And that's why I see how improbable it is for US industries to become major exporters. Like rentboys, Trump's re-industrialisation idea, and getting foreign countries to buy American manufactures, has serious limits.

Currently the US has a trade deficit in rentboys. Americans go to Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Thailand, etc, but sex tourists from the non West don't go to the US. Can't afford it. Another way to put it: American sexwork is not competitive enough to be exported.

How can any US government restore trade balance? Very simple: tax every American who buys sex abroad. The tariff must be big enough to deter outbound sex tourism, thus redirecting these Americans' sex buying to the American rentboy. Then trade becomes zero export and zero imports. Balanced!

[bkkmfj2648]

54 minutes ago, macaroni21 said:

Is the US rentboy prepared to "export" himself to Thailand, Bali, Rio or Medellin to work for local levels of pricing? I think the answer is no. And that's why I see how improbable it is for US industries to become major exporters. Like rentboys, Trump's re-industrialisation idea, and getting foreign countries to buy American manufactures, has serious limits.

Currently the US has a trade deficit in rentboys. Americans go to Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Thailand, etc, but sex tourists from the non West don't go to the US. Can't afford it. Another way to put it: American sexwork is not competitive enough to be exported.

How can any US government restore trade balance? Very simple: tax every American who buys sex abroad. The tariff must be big enough to deter outbound sex tourism, thus redirecting these Americans' sex buying to the American rentboy. Then trade becomes zero export and zero imports. Balanced!

Wow @macaroni21 where were you when I was in university learning Economics 101 ?

Your example of substituting "widgets" with "rent boys", is so much more interesting, than what I was taught at university with widgets.

[floridarob]

11 minutes ago, bkkmfj2648 said:

what I was taught at university with widgets.

I always think of the movie, Back to school with Rodney Dangerfield when I hear about classes and widgets....


 

 

1 hour ago, macaroni21 said:

Is the US rentboy prepared to "export" himself to Thailand

Australia already has, albeit on an occasional basis with @Olddaddy 🤷‍♂️