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The latest in Ukraine March 2025

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

HOW WILL TRUMP GET BIBI TO END THE TROUBLE IN ISRAEL??????????????????

I won't be surprised if Trump brings peace to the Middle East before he is out of office 🤔

Posted
30 minutes ago, bucknaway said:

I won't be surprised if Trump brings peace to the Middle East before he is out of office 🤔

Wasn't he supposed to get the hostages back on DAY ONE???????????

Posted
12 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

Wasn't he supposed to get the hostages back on DAY ONE???????????

Create a new topic this one is about Ukraine

Posted
1 hour ago, bucknaway said:

I won't be surprised if Trump brings peace to the Middle East before he is out of office 🤔

but rest of world will be surprised , rest assured. Specially that USA is not unbiased broker in that part of world clearly siding with one side of conflict.

Posted

How it may be.

Four Scenarios for the Development of Events

First Scenario: Zelensky receives guarantees of retaining power after the war from Trump and Putin and signs everything (or almost everything) that the U.S. and Russia propose. In this case, the war would end rather quickly. However, whether Zelensky will actually be able to rely on these guarantees and remain in power remains an open question.

Second Scenario: The U.S. finds a way to force Zelensky to accept the terms for ending the war without guarantees of his staying in power. This would also lead to a quick end to the war (through a ceasefire declaration), followed by elections that would most likely result in a change of government in Ukraine.

Third Scenario: Zelensky and the "war party" in the West convince Trump to change his stance and continue military aid to Ukraine while increasing sanctions against Russia. This would mean the war continues, and even more, there would be a risk of escalation up to a direct NATO-Russia confrontation, with the threat of nuclear war.

Fourth Scenario: An inertia-driven scenario. The war continues, and U.S. aid to Ukraine ceases. The course of events in this case largely depends on whether Europe can increase its support and on the internal situation in Russia (whether stability is maintained or whether social and political unrest begins due to the prolonged war). However, in any case, this scenario presents enormous risks for Ukraine, including a radical deterioration of the situation on the front and, consequently, worsening conditions for ending the war.

 

What ChatGPT think on it (it predicts the second scenario, in case you are lazy to open quote in full):

Quote

Based on recent developments in U.S. policy under Trump, here’s how they align with the four scenarios you previously mentioned:

First Scenario (Zelensky accepts a deal with U.S. and Russia in exchange for power guarantees):

This scenario is partially in play, as Trump and Putin have started peace negotiations, but there are no indications that Zelensky has received or will receive personal guarantees for retaining power. In fact, tensions between Trump and Zelensky suggest that the U.S. may not support his continued leadership.


Second Scenario (Zelensky is pressured to accept peace without guarantees of staying in power):

This scenario appears highly relevant. Trump’s administration has reportedly expressed frustration with Zelensky, and some U.S. officials have openly called for his resignation. If U.S. pressure increases, Zelensky might have to accept terms that result in his political exit.


Third Scenario (Zelensky and Western "war party" convince Trump to continue military aid and sanctions against Russia):

This scenario is becoming less likely. Trump has distanced himself from Biden-era policies, signaling a major reduction in U.S. military support for Ukraine. Instead, he is focusing on negotiating directly with Russia and shifting the burden of support to European allies.


Fourth Scenario (Inertia: war continues, U.S. aid stops, European response determines the outcome):

If negotiations stall or fail, this scenario may emerge. Trump's reluctance to back Ukraine militarily means that European countries will need to decide whether they can fill the gap. The internal stability of Russia will also be a key factor, as prolonged conflict could lead to unrest.


Overall, the second scenario (pressuring Zelensky to accept peace without guarantees) seems the most relevant to current events, while the first scenario (Zelensky securing a deal to stay in power) appears unlikely. The third scenario (increased U.S. support) is almost ruled out, and the fourth scenario (prolonged war with reduced U.S. involvement) remains a possibility if negotiations fail.

 

Posted

The British are urgently teaching Ukrainians good manners and explaining that they have no leverage against the US. Probably showing how to bow and curtsey correctly.

Quote

Jonathan Powell, Sir Keir Starmer’s national security adviser, travelled to Ukraine over the weekend to brief Zelensky before his country’s representatives attend the talks with the USon Tuesday, to avoid a repeat of the disastrous Oval Office row with Donald Trump.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britain-takes-key-role-to-help-ukraine-in-peace-talks-fgvxlklkg

 

Meanwhile, Russian troops effectively surrounded the Ukrainians in the Kursk region, divided them into two parts, and blocked by drones the only road through which Ukrainian troops were supplied and reinforcements arrived. 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers are under threat of capture.

Zelensky has lost his only leverage in future negotiations with the Russian Federation.

Instead of Ukraine's leverage, it will now be Russia's leverage - under what conditions will Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region be allowed to leave there.

https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/world-news/ukraine-forces-likely-to-pull-out-of-russias-kursk-region-within-two-weeks-sources/

(blue Russian-Ukrainian border)

image.thumb.png.5e6fc46304f5ffe65cc1fe9c6fd7234b.png

Posted

During the offensive in the Kursk region, Ukrainians blow up Russian Orthodox churches just like the Nazis did in 1943. In a modern photo - a church in the village of Pogrebki.

2025

image.thumb.png.94a8c5b788e4e470890438f732cbff22.png

 

1943

image.thumb.png.a580a29618da79d978a0b4209440b3ea.png

Posted
10 hours ago, Moses said:

During the offensive in the Kursk region, Ukrainians blow up Russian Orthodox churches just like the Nazis did in 1943. In a modern photo - a church in the village of Pogrebki.

2025

image.thumb.png.94a8c5b788e4e470890438f732cbff22.png

 

1943

image.thumb.png.a580a29618da79d978a0b4209440b3ea.png

Interesting comparison. For perspective, 100s of Ukrainian churches have been damaged or destroyed by Russian bombing.  If you are going to start a war, you have to be ready for war. 

https://www.oikoumene.org/news/500-churches-and-religious-sites-destroyed-in-ukraine-during-the-war

Posted
11 hours ago, Moses said:

 

Meanwhile, Russian troops effectively surrounded the Ukrainians in the Kursk region, divided them into two parts, and blocked by drones the only road through which Ukrainian troops were supplied and reinforcements arrived. 

Russia just keeps on underestimating the Ukraine. And they will continue to pay the price for that. "Effectively" isn't a word I would associate with Russia's efforts so far. 

Posted
4 hours ago, KeepItReal said:

Russia just keeps on underestimating the Ukraine.

"Underestimating" is here https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/09/russia-is-bombing-bridges-to-cut-off-10000-ukrainian-troops-in-kursk/

Quote

The 10,000-strong Ukrainian garrison in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast is in trouble.

Relentless strikes by an elite Russian drone group have destroyed hundreds of vehicles along the main road into Kursk to the town of Sudzha, the anchor of the shrinking Ukrainian salient in the oblast.

and here https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/08/an-elite-russian-drone-group-is-hunting-ukrainian-vehicles-in-kursk-itll-take-more-than-a-few-mig-29-raids-to-blunt-the-russian-edge/

Quote

More importantly, the Kremlin has pushed one of its best drone groups, the Rubicon Center of Advanced Unmanned Systems, into the Kursk fight—blunting Ukraine’s main advantage: its superior drones. 

With well-made drones and radio control systems that can apparently rapidly switch frequencies, Rubicon has managed to fight through Ukrainian jamming, which normally has the effect of grounding most Russian drones.

As a result, “Ukrainian logistics in Kursk have suffered severe damage from drone attacks,” Perpetua explained. Rubicon has knocked out hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles—mostly supply trucks, but also precious M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and MaxxPro armored trucks.

They will be very lucky, if 50% will survive and reach Ukrainian territory.

They trying to run from Kursk region, but have no chances.

On the photo: 

A column of Ukrainian armored vehicles is trying to break through home along the only road. Right in front of the column, a bridge was destroyed and all armored vehicles, starting with the last one, were destroyed by Rubicon drones.

These drones were developed by the Russian Federation, autumn 2024. They are not suppressed by modern electronic warfare systems, and communication with them cannot be jammed.

image.png.3e5321dd80390e61ec8d147bca3c59b9.png

image.png.3108f55a751b32e18b5677f80c58408f.png

image.png.63a78ff63c44442c906b50309c6363c6.png

Posted
19 minutes ago, Moses said:

"Underestimating" is here https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/09/russia-is-bombing-bridges-to-cut-off-10000-ukrainian-troops-in-kursk/

and here https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/08/an-elite-russian-drone-group-is-hunting-ukrainian-vehicles-in-kursk-itll-take-more-than-a-few-mig-29-raids-to-blunt-the-russian-edge/

They will be very lucky, if 50% will survive and reach Ukrainian territory.

They trying to run from Kursk region, but have no chances.

On the photo: 

A column of Ukrainian armored vehicles is trying to break through home along the only road. Right in front of the column, a bridge was destroyed and all armored vehicles, starting with the last one, were destroyed by Rubicon drones.

These drones were developed by the Russian Federation, autumn 2024. They are not suppressed by modern electronic warfare systems, and communication with them cannot be jammed.

image.png.3e5321dd80390e61ec8d147bca3c59b9.png

image.png.63a78ff63c44442c906b50309c6363c6.png

We shall see - how many times have we heard "Russia is about to crush the Ukraine - it will be over by week's end" in the past 3 years?  I am not a betting man, but if I was, I know where I would place my bet.

Posted
1 minute ago, KeepItReal said:

We shall see - how many times have we heard "Russia is about to crush the Ukraine - it will be over by week's end"

Could you please cite even one Russian official with such words? Any one?

But I can show you another quote:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
2022:
— Russia's days are numbered. The Russian army is pathetic, it is forced to collect chips from stolen washing machines

2025:
— Russia is an imminent threat of an unprecedented scale in our lifetime, Europe can mobilize 800 billion euros in military spending to protect Europe from Russia

Posted
5 minutes ago, Moses said:

Could you please cite even one Russian official with such words? Any one?

But I can show you another quote:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
2022:
— Russia's days are numbered. The Russian army is pathetic, it is forced to collect chips from stolen washing machines

2025:
— Russia is an imminent threat of an unprecedented scale in our lifetime, Europe can mobilize 800 billion euros in military spending to protect Europe from Russia

I would provide a citation...but I am afraid that if I do the source may "fall out a window" 🪟  like so many others. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, KeepItReal said:

I would provide a citation...but I am afraid that if I do the source may "fall out a window" 🪟  like so many others. 

So you have no sources.

I can easy provide my sources 

Quote

 

Russia's financial sector is on life-support. We have cut off three quarters of Russia's banking sector from international markets.

Nearly one thousand international companies have left the country.

The production of cars fell by three-quarters compared to last year. Aeroflot is grounding planes because there are no more spare parts. The Russian military is taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware, because they ran out of semiconductors. Russia's industry is in tatters.

 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/ov/speech_22_5493

Since then Russian GDP grew more than 9% (accumulated in 2 years), while German GDP fell 0.9% (also in 2 years).

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