The latest in Ukraine March 2025

[bucknaway]

[bucknaway]

[bucknaway]

[Bingo T Dog]

2 hours ago, bucknaway said:

109 billion,  NOT 300 billion.  Can republicans count?  are they a result of the poor education system in the USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bingo T Dog]

16 minutes ago, bucknaway said:

HOW WILL TRUMP GET BIBI TO END THE TROUBLE IN ISRAEL??????????????????

[bucknaway]

39 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

HOW WILL TRUMP GET BIBI TO END THE TROUBLE IN ISRAEL??????????????????

I won't be surprised if Trump brings peace to the Middle East before he is out of office 🤔

[Bingo T Dog]

30 minutes ago, bucknaway said:

I won't be surprised if Trump brings peace to the Middle East before he is out of office 🤔

Wasn't he supposed to get the hostages back on DAY ONE???????????

[bucknaway]

12 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

Wasn't he supposed to get the hostages back on DAY ONE???????????

Create a new topic this one is about Ukraine

[Bingo T Dog]

22 minutes ago, bucknaway said:

Create a new topic this one is about Ukraine

WHY DO YOU KEEP RESPONDING THEN?

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, bucknaway said:

I won't be surprised if Trump brings peace to the Middle East before he is out of office 🤔

but rest of world will be surprised , rest assured. Specially that USA is not unbiased broker in that part of world clearly siding with one side of conflict.

[bucknaway]

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[bucknaway]

[Moses]

How it may be.

Four Scenarios for the Development of Events

First Scenario: Zelensky receives guarantees of retaining power after the war from Trump and Putin and signs everything (or almost everything) that the U.S. and Russia propose. In this case, the war would end rather quickly. However, whether Zelensky will actually be able to rely on these guarantees and remain in power remains an open question.

Second Scenario: The U.S. finds a way to force Zelensky to accept the terms for ending the war without guarantees of his staying in power. This would also lead to a quick end to the war (through a ceasefire declaration), followed by elections that would most likely result in a change of government in Ukraine.

Third Scenario: Zelensky and the "war party" in the West convince Trump to change his stance and continue military aid to Ukraine while increasing sanctions against Russia. This would mean the war continues, and even more, there would be a risk of escalation up to a direct NATO-Russia confrontation, with the threat of nuclear war.

Fourth Scenario: An inertia-driven scenario. The war continues, and U.S. aid to Ukraine ceases. The course of events in this case largely depends on whether Europe can increase its support and on the internal situation in Russia (whether stability is maintained or whether social and political unrest begins due to the prolonged war). However, in any case, this scenario presents enormous risks for Ukraine, including a radical deterioration of the situation on the front and, consequently, worsening conditions for ending the war.

 

What ChatGPT think on it (it predicts the second scenario, in case you are lazy to open quote in full):

Quote

Based on recent developments in U.S. policy under Trump, here’s how they align with the four scenarios you previously mentioned:

First Scenario (Zelensky accepts a deal with U.S. and Russia in exchange for power guarantees):

This scenario is partially in play, as Trump and Putin have started peace negotiations, but there are no indications that Zelensky has received or will receive personal guarantees for retaining power. In fact, tensions between Trump and Zelensky suggest that the U.S. may not support his continued leadership.

Second Scenario (Zelensky is pressured to accept peace without guarantees of staying in power):

This scenario appears highly relevant. Trump’s administration has reportedly expressed frustration with Zelensky, and some U.S. officials have openly called for his resignation. If U.S. pressure increases, Zelensky might have to accept terms that result in his political exit.

Third Scenario (Zelensky and Western "war party" convince Trump to continue military aid and sanctions against Russia):

This scenario is becoming less likely. Trump has distanced himself from Biden-era policies, signaling a major reduction in U.S. military support for Ukraine. Instead, he is focusing on negotiating directly with Russia and shifting the burden of support to European allies.

Fourth Scenario (Inertia: war continues, U.S. aid stops, European response determines the outcome):

If negotiations stall or fail, this scenario may emerge. Trump's reluctance to back Ukraine militarily means that European countries will need to decide whether they can fill the gap. The internal stability of Russia will also be a key factor, as prolonged conflict could lead to unrest.

Overall, the second scenario (pressuring Zelensky to accept peace without guarantees) seems the most relevant to current events, while the first scenario (Zelensky securing a deal to stay in power) appears unlikely. The third scenario (increased U.S. support) is almost ruled out, and the fourth scenario (prolonged war with reduced U.S. involvement) remains a possibility if negotiations fail.