Thank You, Nancy Pelosi. Twice.

stevenkesslar · February 28

DOGE is now dramatically raising the potential for a government shutdown

Adding Musk’s cuts to spending talks could help satisfy hard-liners but alienate Democrats whose votes will be needed to fund the government.

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The strategy would also be responsive to demands Speaker Mike Johnson is facing from his right flank to slash government spending in the funding bill.

I think in the fantasy world of some Republican House hard liners, they will be able to position the Democrats as the party that is for Government Waste and Abuse.

Good luck with that, guys. Because it ain't gonna happen. And I largely thank Nancy Pelosi for that. She did more than anyone to try to make the House a firewall against the worst Trump can do.

In theory, Republicans could manage to make all the harsh cuts to health and food programs the Republican hard liners are considering. While also canonizing Elon Musk as a saint. They did eek out a 217-215 House win last week.

There are several problems, though. House Republicans in swing districts know it would be suicidal. Many Senate Republicans oppose about $800 billion in health cuts, for the same reason. But the most important obstacle to super-sized cruelty right now is that Democrats came very close to a tie in the House. We actually picked up one House seat.

What Republican landslide?

When I read these articles about all the brutal firings and cuts, I keep thinking about Nancy Pelosi. I think she had a strategy for both the House and the Presidency. Both came close to working. And, had Democrats been better at executing her strategy, I think both would have worked.

We'll probably never know with 100 % certainty what Pelosi said or did. But like most people I buy the narrative that Pelosi forced Biden out. Pelosi has said repeatedly that she hopes Biden will get over it. And both Jill and Joe Biden seem to be just as clear that they will never forgive her for stabbing a lifelong friend in the back.

I also buy the now conventional wisdom that Democratic losses in both the House and Senate would have been worse with Biden leading the ticket. It could have been a landslide.

The polling on generic House races backs this up. Republicans led for most of 2024. From the moment Biden dropped out on July 21 until the middle of October, the generic Democratic vote just kept going up: from 44 % when Biden dropped out to a peak of 48 % in October. For most of that period Democrats were one or two points ahead of Republicans. And Democrats ended up getting 48 % of the House vote.

It's not hard to imagine that with Biden on the ticket, the lack of enthusiasm and money and momentum would have taken up to a few more dozen Democrats in close House races out. As well as several Democratic Senators that barely won. And hardline conservatives who are insisting on being particularly cruel to the working class, to pay for Elon Musk's tax cuts, could have told a handful of moderate Republicans who are not interested in political suicide to just go fuck themselves. With a 20 seat majority, their votes would not be needed.

There's a second thing Nancy Pelosi insisted on that I think almost worked. No one else worked harder to make the point, constantly, that Trump is out of control. And he has to be stopped. She more than anyone called out his recklessness as POTUS. She impeached him twice. She put together the J6 committee. And used it to choreograph the message that Trump is out of control. And he can never be entrusted with power again. Almost half of America, including me, believes this.

Republicans gloat that Pelosi failed. Which is true. I'm grateful that she actually had a strategy that almost worked. Joe Biden sure didn't.

Part of what motivated this rant is all the blaming going on that Democrats are not doing enough. Maybe. But when you are in the legislative minority, there ain't much you can do. Nancy Pelosi of course knew that.

But I also watched that video above again, which I posted in October. Especially in retrospect, it seems like the best explanation for why Harris lost a narrow race she could have narrowly won. And why Pelosi's strategy almost worked.

Republican pollster Doug Stripple, who was doing work for the centrist Cook Political Report, is the star of the show in my mind. He keeps coming back to the same point. Which he says most clearly from 20:50 to 23:00 if you only want to hear a few minutes of his main point. Three weeks before the election, he said it would be decided by a small percentage of undecided voters who are largely independent and working class. If it's a referendum on the economy, Trump wins. If it is a referendum on Trump being out of control, Harris wins.

Here is what seems like the fatal nail in Kamala's coffin, to quote Stripple directly in mid-October 2024: "What I thought was the biggest strategic error for her ...... She wins the debate, right? And instead of trying to message on that track from then on, she goes and tries to talk about how great she is on the economy. Which of course goes right back and plays into Donald Trump's hand."

To paraphrase the political axiom, in 2024 when Harris was talking about the economy, she had to be losing. Because these independent working class voters were convinced the Biden economy sucked for them. All Harris could do was try to convince them that Trump was too insane and out of control to be President again.

This of course runs directly counter to the idea that Harris needed to talk about the economy more. But I think Stripple has the facts on his side. Trump knew he could win and election focused on inflation and prices. And so he focused on that.

In some alternative universe, which actually exists and is called Mexico, Biden might have been seen as a champion of the working class, like AMLO was. In that same alternative universe, which is actually called Mexico, his working class champion successor might have led in the polls all through the campaign. Quizas, quizas, quizas.

Harris did not have such choices. I think Stripple is right. She had to prosecute the case against Trump. Fiercely, and non-stop. The polls back up what Stripple says he heard from working class voters in focus groups directly. When she was attacking Trump, she was winning. When she shifted to how good she'd be on the economy, she started to lose. The exact same thing was apparent on Mark Halperin's 2 Way channel, which was basically a months long focus group with lots of undecided voters.

In the end, "it's the inflation, stupid" might have been inevitable, anyway. The other phrase that sticks with me from the election is Never Trump Republican Mike Murphy. At some point around September, when Harris was leading and strong, he pointed out soberly that Harris had a "wall of lava" coming straight at her, called inflation. He was not the only strategist who said that. But he said it the most colorfully. Harris did not and could not have the teflon AMLO had in Mexico. Because his whole life has been about being a working class fighter. Who actually enacted sweeping reforms for the working class in Mexico.

I do think Nancy Pelosi called it all right. And she will have the last laugh. Florida major donor John Morgan, who adores and fears her, calls her "Little Bo Peep with razor blades." Now even Joe Biden has wounds from her. Because she tried and failed, we now have to go through four more years of the out of control insanity she railed against. It will of course have the effect she predicted, just like it did the first time around.

I'm glad Pelosi tried. Even if she failed. I'd rather have a not quite majority, that can block some of the cruelty, than the landslide I think we could have had if she had done nothing.