Ukraine war

[stevenkesslar]

8 hours ago, Moses said:

If elections were held today, Zaluzhny would win against Zelensky

You're funny.   You are such a lying hypocrite.

This is rich coming from you.

Quote

According to an interview with The Washington Post, in 2019, Zaluzhnyi was detained at the airport in Brussels, where he had arrived to participate in the NATO summit. The reason was that he was put on the international wanted list at the request of the Russian Federation. During his detention by Interpol, he managed to call Ukraine's ambassador to NATO, who subsequently resolved the situation.^[18][19]

Getting Zaluzhny, a popular general, is like stepping out of the frying pan into the fire for Putin.

He is pro-NATO, as that anecdote above explains.  If you are looking for another corrupt Friend Of Vlad's this guy is not who you want.  Vlad knows that, which is probably why Vlad put him on a "wanted" list.  Too bad he can't kill him, like he does all his domestic political opponents.

The main reason Ukraine can't have an election now is also thanks to Vlad.  They are in a war.

I'm sure Zelenskyy, like any politician, would prefer to win any election he is in.  But he did appoint and promote Zaluzhny.

What this makes obvious is that Vlad has also made Ukraine a very militarist society.  They have to be, because their lives and existence are on the line.  I don't know Ukraine at all.  But it might be a bit like the US in the 1950s, when we had a very popular General as President. I don't think this is good for Russia.

On a similar note, I read this today:

Quote

At another point, Trump declared himself “in the middle,” seeming to formally break from years of American support for Ukraine. He went on to deride Zelenskyy’s “hatred” for Putin as a roadblock to peace.

Quote

Zelenskyy added that Ukraine won’t enter peace talks with Russia until it has security guarantees against another offensive.

“Everybody (is) afraid Putin will come back tomorrow,” Zelenskyy said. “We want just and lasting peace.”

“It’s so sensitive for our people,” Zelenskyy said. “And they just want to hear that America (is) on our side, that America will stay with us. Not with Russia, with us. That’s it.”

I think that is a great summary of the basic conflict, and the motivations.

I am pretty certain Zelenskyy is speaking genuinely from the heart.   Ukraine hates Putin.  Ukraine hates Russia.  The only good Russians are dead Russians.  And Ukrainians have killed a lot of them.   I don't think this is what Putin had in mind when he invaded. 

I don't think Ukraine was a CIA-designed trap for Putin.  It is obvious how Ukrainians feel without any help from the CIA.  But if you want to to believe this was a CIA trap, Putin was a fool to walk into it.

I will repeat the basic principle of Brzezinski, which played out exactly as he hoped in Afghanistan for the USSR, and then for the US.  It played out the same way for Poland, his beloved homeland, as well as the rest of the Warsaw Pact.

His point was that even when Poles more or less accepted the USSR as an inevitable reality, and didn't mind it all that actively, it was still only a matter of time.  It was easy to pick the threads of the alliance apart, with zero actual weapons.  Sending in a beloved Polish Pope really put that on steroids.

In Ukraine, you have deep and active and daily hate of Russians.  I've been in Europe a lot, and know that many Europeans know more about the US political system than Americans do.  So I'm guessing many Ukrainians know that this is a war in the US between two political parties.  And even between two factions in the Republican Party.  It will not last forever. 

But what will last forever, or at least a century, is the deep hatred for Russia Genocide Man has now created in Ukraine.

Good luck with that.  

[stevenkesslar]

I know I am in full rant mode with long posts.   But I am learning a lot of new things.  And I assume everyone who is not interested just ignores what I post.

Top Republicans say they want Ukraine deal 'back on track'

That was completely predictable.   

Again, Mike Johnson spoke for most Americans when he said we want Putin to be defeated.  But most Americans are sober, and realize for now he can't be.  Sorry we feel that way.  Couldn't happen to a nicer genocide maker.

I don't think JD Vance speaks for most Republican Senators.  I think most of them want the US to keep arming Ukraine.  They probably also want to offer Zelenskyy the security guarantees he wants.  But they know they have to blow smoke up Trump's ass constantly.

In Trump 1.0, the grown ups in the room were in the White House.  One very clear indicator that the insolent pig has the brain of a child seeking retribution is that he made sure all the people he appointed are loyal to him. 

But I think this proves that he just can't do that with Republicans in the Senate and House.  Johnson will blow smoke up Trump's ass, and then make pro-Ukraine deals.  Thune seems to not even have to bother blowing smoke up Trump's ass.  He just does what the majority of Republican Senators want.  Which is his job.  This confirms that the majority of Republican Senators want to defend Ukraine.  Despite Trump's affection for Genocide Man, his mafia crony.

 

Quote

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, said that he had a one-on-one conversation with Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, and “we are 100 [percent] getting this train back on the tracks.”

 

Quote

“This mineral deal will be signed in short order, which will lead to a strong long-term economic partnership between the United States and Ukraine, and which will ultimately and naturally lead to security assistance,” Fitzpatrick wrote in a lengthy statement on X.

 

If I had to bet, I'd bet that statement is wishful thinking.   Trump runs the administrative branch.   And he wants it his way.  There is a silver lining on that cloud.  In theory, Trump can keep Putin defanged for four years.  Meanwhile, the EU can get organized around its own defense against Putin.  If a Democrat wins in 2028, the bipartisan consensus is back on track.  That is far from perfect.  But it is probably good enough.

 

 

I haven't read much about Zaluzhnyi until you mentioned him.  But I can see lots of advantages in him beating Zelenskyy in an election.

1.  If there is an election, it means there is at least some kind of fragile truce.

2. As you said, he is wildly popular.  Ukrainians love him.

3. He is pro-NATO and effective at killing Russians, by all accounts.  Vlad does not like him.  NATO and US hawks love him.

4. He dresses better than Zelenskyy.  Hopefully, he can tell stories about how Trump, in every war he has fought in, felled thousands of enemies with his erect penis alone.  He will tell Trump stories about how Ukrainians read books to their children about how wise and powerful Trump is.  And how handsome.  If only Trump could be King of Ukraine!

The fourth part may be the most important to Ukraine's future, sadly.  That is how stupid and narcissistic our insolent pig is.  And now we are stuck with him.

[bucknaway]

[bucknaway]

[Bingo T Dog]

6 minutes ago, bucknaway said:

Trump has the money.

[stevenkesslar]

On 4/4/2025 at 3:36 PM, bucknaway said:

 

Bonus question for 25 Trump Lies And Hate and Racism points

Which Fake News DEI leader, who was only respected because he was a DEI Black piece of shit loser, sold Zelenskyy the platinum mine?

A.   Nelson Mandela

B.   Desmond Tutu

C.  Martin Luther King

D.  Any other useless stupid incompetent Black appointed by Joe Biden, such as DEI Veep Kamala Harris.

 

The lying barking dog only comes here to spew lies and hate.

 

[Moses]

 

[Suckrates]

2 hours ago, Moses said:

 

Trump WON simply because RACIST , misogynistic Americans WOULDN'T vote for a BLACK woman,  and HID behind the excuse of high EGG prices.   🐔🐔🐔

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

 

How appropriate you defend the lying barking dog. 

You at least appear to be defending the lying barking dog by posting thread titles that didn't quite nail what actually happened.   Okay, mea culpa.  I am less than perfect.   But I was not spreading lies like the lying barking dog comes here to do.

It is ironic.  Genocide Man is a fountain of lies.   Starting with his dismissal of any notion that he kills all his political opponents in Russia.  And his lie that Ukrainians he mass murders actually want to be part of Genocide World.   And his lie about stealing the children of Ukraine after murdering their parents.   Although I must admit George W. Bush gave Murderous Vlad a run for his money with his WMD lies.  Oh, the good old days!

In fairness, I think most of what you say is factually correct.  Or at least debatable.  Even if it is mostly intended to support genocide, and attacks on democratic institutions and alliances.

 

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, Moses said:

 

I'm happy to take a hit for being less than perfect in backing Lichtman, until he was proven wrong this time.   It's off topic.  But the question of why a smart guy like Lichtman was wrong this time is interesting 

I still think his theories make sense.  Of the 11 elections he predicted in advance, Lichtman got 9 right.   The 2 he was wrong on - Gore in 2000 and Harris in 2024 - were both close races.   His retrospective predictions going back to the Civil War of who should have won, based on his Keys, were also wrong twice: 1876 and 1888.  The 1888 race is interesting because it also involved tariffs.  And the only other incumbent POTUS to lose re-election, Grover Cleveland, who then came back from the dead to win a second term four years later. 

Remember, the co-author of the Keys theory was a Russian expert who loved peace and democracy.  Oh, the good old days!   When Vlad was a good guy!

Vladimir Keilis-Borok

Where I really part company with Lichtman is his own very defensive analysis of why he was wrong in 2024.   He's essentially arguing voters were stupid, and they fell for all kinds of disinformation by Trump.  Kind of like Old Joe arguing voters didn't understand how great Bidenomics was for their pocketbook.

What I like the most about his Keys is that they argue democracy matters, and voters are smart.  (Not really something that has ever been proven in Genocide World, I know.)  

So I would argue that in 2024 voters were smart.  They recoiled from inflation and high prices.  So I think Lichtman got his short-term economy key wrong.  Technically, there was not a recession.  But poll after poll showed that people felt like there was one.  Lichtman split the difference on his foreign policy keys by calling Gaza a military loss for Biden but Ukraine a military victory.  That is debatable, of course.  Change those two keys and it would have predicted a narrow Trump victory instead.

Or, in short, history is complicated.

None of this bodes well for Trump.

1.  If the election were held today, Trump would do even worse on the short-term economy key.  He promised to lower prices.   Smart voters understand that he will instead raise prices through unpopular tariffs.

2.  Americans started out unified behind Ukraine, but by 2024 were divided on partisan lines.  We can thank our lying traitorous Donald "Judas" Trump for turning Republicans against Ukraine and the defense of democracy, in the US or elsewhere.  But as much as Americans were gradually divided on the Ukraine War, they are already unified in their repulsion of Trump's global trade war.  It is a disaster that hurts democracy, hurts capitalism, and only helps Xi and Genocide Man.

3.  Democrat Cleveland won the popular vote in 1888 by defending consumers and explaining that tariffs hurt them.   But he lost the electoral college, because Republican Harrison had the strong backing of pro-tariff industrialist fat cats.  Sound familiar?  Four years later Democrat Cleveland came back to win, still arguing - with plenty of evidence - that Republican tariffs that helped people like Elon Musk and other rich donors hurt the working class.   Sound familiar?

The insolent pig Trump is a stupid, stupid, stupid pig who understands neither the economy nor history.

[Moses]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

and the defense of democracy

Why you call country, where are more forbidden parties and medias than in Russia, "democracy"?

By ChatGPT:

TV channels banned personally by Zelenskiy, 5 of 8 were banned before conflict, in 2021:

[stevenkesslar]

3 hours ago, Moses said:

Why you call country, where are more forbidden parties and medias than in Russia, "democracy"?

By ChatGPT:

TV channels banned personally by Zelenskiy, 5 of 8 were banned before conflict, in 2021:

Talk about blaming the victim!   May as well go back to Trump claiming Ukraine started the war with Russia.   How long did Trump's lame ass pro-authoritarianism lie last?

You fail to mention that the banning of political parties occurred in March 2022.   Geez, what happened then?   Let me think.   Hmmmmm.

Oh,  that's right.   GENOCIDE MAN STARTED A GENOCIDE IN UKRAINE.   Your murderous leader started killing Ukrainians.  Shocking how Ukraine tried to defend itself from Genocide Man, isn't it?

Quote

The country’s national security and defence council took the decision to ban the parties from any political activity. Most of the parties affected were small, but one of them, the Opposition Platform for Life, has 44 seats in the 450-seat Ukrainian parliament.

Quote

The Opposition Platform for Life, Ukraine’s biggest opposition party, is led by Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Moscow oligarch with close ties to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

Quote

The list of parties banned on Sunday also included the Nashi (Ours) party led by Yevhen Murayev, as well as a number of smaller parties not represented in the parliament. Prior to the start of the war, unspecified British intelligence claimed that Russia was considering installing Murayev to lead a Kremlin-controlled puppet government in Kyiv, claims that Murayev strongly denied.

Good luck sorting your way through that.   Who knows what is true and what is lies made up by spies on one side or the other?

What we do know is that Putin's whole life is about spies, deception, killing opponents, and now genocide.  I can see why Ukrainians would be concerned about political parties aligned with the country and leader that started a genocide against them.

If you are so concerned about democracy, why not call off the war, let Ukraine have an election to join NATO and the EU, and let Russia have an election where all the real political opponents of Putin are not all killed or jailed?

[Moses]

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

You fail to mention that the banning of political parties occurred in March 2022. 

So what?

These parties had people behind them, people who voted them on elections. Ban of these parties means censorship in interests of Zelenskiy and his party.

It's like Trump decided to ban the US Democratic Party right now because it threatens the Republican Party, and explained the ban as a "threat to US national security and sovereignty." Would you buy that?

[stevenkesslar]

10 hours ago, Moses said:

So what?

These parties had people behind them, people who voted them on elections. Ban of these parties means censorship in interests of Zelenskiy and his party.

It means protection of Ukrainian men, women, and children from Putin's genocide.

Something you could obviously give a flying fuck about, in your own words.   Trump could give a flying fuck about it to. 

Nor could you give a flying fuck about the absence of democracy in Genocide World.

You come here to support genocide, and the mass murder of Ukrainian men, women, and children by Genocide Men.   You attack efforts by Ukraine to defend itself from genocide.

You are Putin's Genocide Fan.  

[Moses]

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

protection of Ukrainian men

Yeah... so selective protection, huh? You will protect one part of population and discriminate another part of population? Own population, Ukrainian citizens.

It is exactly in my example: protection of American people who prefer Reps and discriminate population who prefer Dems... right?

[Suckrates]

"I will END the Ukraine war within 24 hours of my 2nd Presidency"

                                                           

 

So here we are, almost 100 days into his 2nd term, and the war is still raging,  and now the US is preparing to walk away from negotiations because Zelentsky REFUSES to be crushed and trampled by Putins demands, and Putin is saying FUCK YOU to Trumps intervention.

"Only I can FIx it "

OK Trump, we hear ya, but its just another LIE you tell.   You are a FAILURE. 

[KeepItReal]

20 hours ago, Suckrates said:

"I will END the Ukraine war within 24 hours of my 2nd Presidency"

                                                           

 

So here we are, almost 100 days into his 2nd term, and the war is still raging,  and now the US is preparing to walk away from negotiations because Zelentsky REFUSES to be crushed and trampled by Putins demands, and Putin is saying FUCK YOU to Trumps intervention.

"Only I can FIx it "

OK Trump, we hear ya, but its just another LIE you tell.   You are a FAILURE. 

And no one is surprised. A zebra can't change its spots and a fake is a fake even when it wears a red tie.

 

[Suckrates]

Trump is once AGAIN lying to the public.  He does NOT want to negotiate with Ukraine he wants them to SURRENDER !

A negotiation would be if " Ukraine would suck Putins cock, and then be allowed to SPIT"

But Trump wants something different.  He wants Ukraine to "suck Putins cock, and SWALLOW ".... a much different scenario.

So dont buy the bullshit Leavitt and the talking MAGA's are feeding you.  Trump has built a TRAP for Zelentsky and is prodding him to step into it.    Trump doesnt want PEACE, he wants SURRENDER, and a BIG kissie from Putin !  

[a-447]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

Trump doesnt want PEACE, he wants SURRENDER, and a BIG kissie from Putin !  

I think he wants the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

[Suckrates]

4 minutes ago, a-447 said:

I think he wants the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

He's taking over every other institution, (Kennedy Center, Smithsonian, etc)  so he may just issue the Nobel to himself.., and claim its the BIGGEST Nobel ever awarded.  ?

[Moses]

6 hours ago, Suckrates said:

So dont buy the bullshit Leavitt and the talking MAGA's are feeding you.  Trump has built a TRAP for Zelentsky and is prodding him to step into it.    Trump doesnt want PEACE, he wants SURRENDER, and a BIG kissie from Putin ! 

Well... it still will be peace, you know?

Trump knows that he holds all the cards: if the US stops supplying weapons to Ukraine, then Ukraine will not last even 3 months, and in another 3 months the front line will run along the Dnieper from north to south. Zelensky has empty hands and has nothing to answer Trump with.

Zelensky's problem is different - if he agrees to these conditions, he will have to flee Ukraine, because the right and nationalists will not forgive him for this. Europe is ready to declare "thoughts and prayers", but even the NATO Secretary General says that Ukraine is not only incapable of winning, but even of resisting for any length of time.

[Suckrates]

12 minutes ago, Moses said:

Well... it still will be peace, you know?

Trump knows that he holds all the cards: if the US stops supplying weapons to Ukraine, then Ukraine will not last even 3 months, and in another 3 months the front line will run along the Dnieper from north to south. Zelensky has empty hands and has nothing to answer Trump with.

Zelensky's problem is different - if he agrees to these conditions, he will have to flee Ukraine, because the right and nationalists will not forgive him for this. Europe is ready to declare "thoughts and prayers", but even the NATO Secretary General says that Ukraine is not only incapable of winning, but even of resisting for any length of time.

 

It will Only be peace until Putin decides it isnt..... He is a Power hungry, dictatorial war monger, and wont be satisfied with a Ukraine deal for very long...  There are certain people you just cant TRUST, and Putin and Trump are at the top of that list. 

[Moses]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

He is a Power hungry, dictatorial war monger, and wont be satisfied with a Ukraine deal for very long...  There are certain people you just cant TRUST, and Putin and Trump are at the top of that list. 

Putin was president and had power 14 years before coup in Ukraine, he was president and had power 21 year before Ukraine added way to NATO into constitution. And there were no war with Ukraine... you know?

So who is warmonger here? Putin? Or crazy Western leaders who provoking Russia, who promised in 1989, what NATO will be not extended to the east?

And most funny thing is what citizen of country, which had no one day in XXI century without messing in military conflicts, telling here about "war mongers".

Do you really think I trust to politics?

The difference btw Trump and Biden is just in methods:

[stevenkesslar]

10 minutes ago, Moses said:

So who is warmonger here? Putin?

In a word, yes.

Although in some alternative reality, I suppose it is possible that Ukrainians parachuted into Moscow on Feb. 24, 2022. And started sadistically and genocidally slaughtering innocent people in the suburbs of Moscow.  Maybe that is what Genocide Man wants you to believe.

It's the same as saying that Trump won by 60 % of the vote in 2020, or whatever.  And instead of certifying his landslide win Democrats sent a mob to the White House and trashed it and shit on the Oval Office desk and forced Trump to flee.  Total bullshit.

Genocide Man is still Genocide Man, and Trump is still a felon and a liar.  Facts don't change.

Buy enjoy playing Goebbels.  Even if you suck at it.

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

And most funny thing is what citizen of country, which had no one day in XXI century without messing in military conflicts, telling here about "war mongers".

Good point.

Since my theme of the day is that W. was actually far worse than Trump, so far, there are a few very important facts we agree on in relation to your argument.

If you want to somehow blame Ukraine or the US or NATO for Genocide Man starting a war in 2022, I think your best argument is how W. and the US started the Iraq War.  That's the main thing we seemingly agree on.

And I would NOT include Afghanistan.  The USSR invaded Afghanistan unprovoked.   But the US was provoked by 9/11.  You can argue whether or not the war made sense, especially after decades of grinding stalemate.  I think Vice President Biden was right that Obama should have pulled the plug on Afghanistan in 2009.  But whatever anyone wants to argue, Afghanistan harbored terrorists who killed thousands of innocent Americans.  And however fucked up it got, I think one good outcome - which Putin himself supported at the time - was to show that acts of terrorism against big powerful nations means you will end up being fish food at the bottom of the ocean.  Like bin Laden did.

The Iraq war, on the other hand, was based on total bullshit.  It was an unprovoked imperialist war.  Putin and some European leaders, like Schroeder, tried to stop it.  So the US arguing that Putin had no right to invade Ukraine after we decided to invade Iraq, unleashing a similarly unnecessary bloodbath, has always been a weak point.  Putin simply decided to do what W. did, with his coalition of the willing limited to North Korea, Iran, and kinda sorta China.

And, at the most basic level, Trump is seeking to end a war.  Not start one.  In the context of everything that happened, I personally view it as a massive betrayal of democracy and US institutions.  As well as of Ukraine and NATO and Europe and other allies.  But even viewed that way, Trump seeking peace is a lesser evil than W. starting a war in Iraq, in my view.

I've thought about this one a lot, since it is how I get around the problem of dealing with family members I love, but deeply disagree with.

My Dad was a WWII veteran and Reagan Republican who fully supported the Iraq War.   So I just avoided the topic.  I could still admire his patriotism.  Even if it seemed very misguided.  I think the long brutal impact of the Iraq War has a lot to do with why Republicans eventually turned against the idea of intervening in places like Ukraine and adopting "America First."   Although the same "America First" Republicans still want to arm up for a war with China.  So has anything really changed?

These days, I have a niece and nephew I am close to who are pro-Trump.  Even though I love her, it is easy to dismiss my niece as ignorant and reactionary.  She watches Gutfeld and has no idea who Kevin McCarthy is, or what forces in the Republican Party drove him from power.  Or why.  My nephew is much smarter.  He can talk fluidly about the discussion he had with W. about subprime when he and his partners at the big firm he works at paid Bush for a private discussion when he was in his post-Presidency "give a speech" days.  But when my rich conservative nephew lets his guard down it is clear that he is naive about Congress, and politics.  He mostly thinks they all suck.  So it kind of makes sense that he'll just embrace a knee jerk notion of "America First."

In my mind, it's pretty simple.  And it fits very well with how the world and nations have always worked.  My Dad, not necessarily by choice, happened to be born into the generation that, more than any other one, built the American century in the blood of WW II.   Russians know even more than Americans about how awful that was.  Along with his other children, I got the benefit of that global US leadership.  But also witnessed some of the excesses like Iraq.  And now some of his grandkids are embracing "America First", and saying we really don't want the American Century after all.  Or maybe they do.  But in some naive and poorly thought out way.   Trump has no idea what he is doing.

Whatever it is my beloved conservative family members are thinking, I still love them.  Even though I know by voting for Trump they set America on the path to managing its own decline.  Which Trump will do, ineptly.  It's not the worst thing in human history.  I'd argue the Iraq War was worse.  

I am hoping Ukraine is relatively safe as long as Trump is in power.  Trump is a fool, but Genocide Man is not.   So he'll try to appease Trump with praise and gestures, even as he concedes nothing.  But Putin would be a fool to piss off Trump, who whether by design or accident is a remarkably good asset for Putin and his cronies and their interests.

Europeans are not fools, either.  So this means they hopefully have four years to seriously prepare for Genocide Man, Unleashed, after Trump is gone.  Or whatever comes after Genocide Man.  Russia is still a far weaker country than the US.  And the Ukraine War cost Russia a lot, and the US pretty much nothing.  This is not a strategic win for Russia.  At least not yet.

But congratulations!  You don't deserve it.  But congratulations, anyway.