RockyRoadTravel

Devin Nunes DJT CEO just dumped 25% of his DJT stock. @EmmetK what's the MAGA echo chamber have to say about DJT stocks getting dumped by their own? It's always good to know what other people are hearing. Thank you.

I haven't previously read Diane Francis on things Russian so I'm not aware of how her thoughts on this topic have evolved or remained the same. In general, she is an consistently very right-wing pundit, so this might be of note given the support Putin has amongst right-wing pundits in the USA. She's base out of Toronto, Canada.

The Underdog label. She's the sitting Vice-President and ahead in the polls. Democrats are the underdogs because of the unfairness of the system, recognizing that the candidate with the most votes might not win. Democrats need to win by 3-4% just to be even in the Electoral College I believe (correct me if I go that estimate wrong). Under the current election rules Democrats are always the underdogs. But I also I think that the underdog label she is embracing for the Democratic ticket is that of the underdog middle class candidates against the plutocrat born into wealth, who's never worked a day in his life for anyone else. So far I think it's a subtle and effective message.

If Trump won - God help us if that were to pass - I could see the States rights mantle being morphed into more regional coordination by liberals and leftists as a rear guard action against an authoritarian federal government. For example, there could be more coordination at a State level amongst California, Oregon and Washington, to salvage social and economic gains and protections.

There are reasons he's the least popular Senator amongst his constituents currently serving in the Senate.

Even as a poor candidate Hillary only lost by 80,000 votes across three swing states, her VP candidate was also safe/boring. Harris is a much better candidate, with a better strategy (so far) and a better VP running mate. There are also more Democratic governors in those swing states now, and I think that makes a difference.

He kind of slow jams the news and opinions. It's not for everyone. He'd have to go home after we were finished.

I heard this somewhere, sorry I don't remember the source, Hawley is the least popular Senator currently serving in the Senate. It's a big lift but maybe there's some Cruz factor there to exploit, with having both sides of the aisle hate you.

I've heard a couple of non-Trump Republican commentators, Jennifer Rubin being one of them, speculate that Trump might replace JD Vance with Kennedy as a running mate. Beyond the historical mind-fuck that would be, I don't buy it. Even Trump has to know that he's conspiratorial enough for the slate, and best not to double down with two old privileged white men whining about how unfair the world is to them. Does anyone know what the mechanics are to replace an already nominated candidate?

In a second term there would be no adults in the room, no guard rails, or however one wants to describe his disinterest/opposition to institutions and norms, or the rule of law.

I think you have a little crush on Halperin. I was listening to a podcast of Ezra Klein's today. Laying in bed with his soft voice, if it wasn't so interesting I would have masturbated. Perhaps too much information.

Looking back, and the impact of the not working the voter turnout/pandemic campaigning of 2022, that Wisconsin seat that Ron Johnson won by 1% is sure going to come back and bite America in the ass.

Not to be completely pedantic, and for the public record, I believe it was eating dogs, and skinning bears. Even after an assassination attempt Trump's approval didn't reach 50%. He has a high floor and a low ceiling, as many people have already noted.

I think some of the difference from poll numbers and eventual election results is from the Democrats not working the vote and having a pandemic (non) turn out strategy (as I said before). I don't think Trump voters have the same embarrassed about talking to pollsters more than they did in 2016, and polls are likely more accurate now. Also, there are more right-wing pollsters in the mix this election cycle - look at the difference between 538 and Real Clear Politics polling averages. The right leaning Rasmussen refused to clarify their methodology to 538, so 538 dropped them. If you look back at the 538 predictions for 2020, they had North Carolina going to Biden, before Georgia would. I think it's the same this year.

I remembered the third thing that makes me positive about a potential re-defeat of the defeated former President. (The Georgia and North Carolina point was just a filler because I knew I had three points, but couldn't remember the third one.) 3. The "who do you want to see controlling Congress" polling numbers have been trending up for the Democrats, with now a 1.7% lead over the Republicans according to 538. This, to me, indicates a general positive political environment for the Democrats and gives them more of a home game advantage (let's be a little Walz-ey) for Harris and team.

Beyond the polling numbers, I think enthusiasm and the campaign turn out the vote operations are, so far, the sleeper issue in terms of discussions on the election outcomes. Maybe it's just early for that discussion. From what I've read there is more of a Harris ground game than with the Trump campaign.

I I listened to as much of his speech as I could stand without getting completely irritated. His speech could have been written by Trump. It was another old privileged white guy whining about how unfair the world is to him, its was all "me, me, me." He couldn't even get over himself to withdraw from the race completely, he still needs to see his name on a ballot. He's partially withdrawing - we all know how partially withdrawing works - in the swing states only. In the event of an Electoral College tie RFK still wants to be considered for President. God he was irritating with his self-serving rationalizations.

I think movements and political parties fit into different categories. There may be a movement for reproductive rights, and the Democrats may have a policy on reproductive rights, and those are different things. In my opinion. There are three things which give me optimism about the Harris campaign. 1. In 2020 Biden's results didn't live up to the polling. I think this was partly to do with how they were campaigning, and not working the vote for turn out. They were observing pandemic protocols, remember "Biden campaigning from his basement", and the GOP was working the vote. That's not happening this time. 2. Unlike 2016 people are no longer embarrassed to support the former defeated President, and so the polls are probably more accurate. 3. I'm thinking - in spite of all the experts - that North Carolina is more likely than Georgia for the Harris campaign, and a maybe a Democratic governor might help with minimizing election interference by the MAGA element of the GOP.

Bill Clinton is speaking tonight. Bill Clinton's response to the Reagan revolution of voodoo economics [as described by George H W Bush] was to take the Democratic Party to the right. Biden's response to the chaos and greed of Trump was to tact back into the center of American politics, with feelers out to the left. Clinton and Biden had presidencies going in opposite directions. Is Clinton speaking to appeal to non-MAGA Republicans and Independents?

Most of the memes and news clip of Michelle Obama's speech are about "maybe the job he's [Trump] running for is a black job." However, the quote that I thought really nailed the state of the nation was calling out "the affirmative action of generational wealth." Yes, sister.

EmmetK this post is top-tier for you. Made me laugh. A short cut to the delusions being peddled in the MAGA fever swamp. Please tell us more news from the echo chamber @EmmetK. Your Coles Notes to the whining/name-calling/lying saves us all time.

If Tester doesn't win in Montana, how does the Harris campaign convey how completely obstructionist and insane a MAGA Senate is going to be, while sticking to their positive future vibes message? It's a criticism I have of the Democrats in Congress, not that I have an answer, it seems to me that they've never really been able to articulate how obstructionist the GOP has been for the last 14 years. In 2010 the Tea Bagging crazies took over the GOP agenda - and created chaos in government to distract from the Supreme Court legislating from the bench, with their life time appointments and their Christian Sharia law outlook.

Polls. Real Clear Politics includes junk polls in their averages, unaccounted for, in a way that 538 doesn't. Hence the difference between their voting averages and RCP. This election cycle there seems to be more hunk polling being done. I've brought this up in a previous post. HarrisX and Rasmussen seem to be churning out a lot of polls, and they are the best of the right wing biased agencies. Has anyone seen any actual documentation of this? It's just an anecdotal impression I have at this point. But, to your point, this feeds into the defeated former President pointing to some poll some where that showed he should have won.

There's some connection beyond the Louisiana Purchase.

What has Venezuela got to do with anything? The only candidate proposing a dictatorship is Trump.