RockyRoadTravel

I think you have a little crush on Halperin. I was listening to a podcast of Ezra Klein's today. Laying in bed with his soft voice, if it wasn't so interesting I would have masturbated. Perhaps too much information.

Looking back, and the impact of the not working the voter turnout/pandemic campaigning of 2022, that Wisconsin seat that Ron Johnson won by 1% is sure going to come back and bite America in the ass.

Not to be completely pedantic, and for the public record, I believe it was eating dogs, and skinning bears. Even after an assassination attempt Trump's approval didn't reach 50%. He has a high floor and a low ceiling, as many people have already noted.

I think some of the difference from poll numbers and eventual election results is from the Democrats not working the vote and having a pandemic (non) turn out strategy (as I said before). I don't think Trump voters have the same embarrassed about talking to pollsters more than they did in 2016, and polls are likely more accurate now. Also, there are more right-wing pollsters in the mix this election cycle - look at the difference between 538 and Real Clear Politics polling averages. The right leaning Rasmussen refused to clarify their methodology to 538, so 538 dropped them. If you look back at the 538 predictions for 2020, they had North Carolina going to Biden, before Georgia would. I think it's the same this year.

I remembered the third thing that makes me positive about a potential re-defeat of the defeated former President. (The Georgia and North Carolina point was just a filler because I knew I had three points, but couldn't remember the third one.) 3. The "who do you want to see controlling Congress" polling numbers have been trending up for the Democrats, with now a 1.7% lead over the Republicans according to 538. This, to me, indicates a general positive political environment for the Democrats and gives them more of a home game advantage (let's be a little Walz-ey) for Harris and team.

Beyond the polling numbers, I think enthusiasm and the campaign turn out the vote operations are, so far, the sleeper issue in terms of discussions on the election outcomes. Maybe it's just early for that discussion. From what I've read there is more of a Harris ground game than with the Trump campaign.

I I listened to as much of his speech as I could stand without getting completely irritated. His speech could have been written by Trump. It was another old privileged white guy whining about how unfair the world is to him, its was all "me, me, me." He couldn't even get over himself to withdraw from the race completely, he still needs to see his name on a ballot. He's partially withdrawing - we all know how partially withdrawing works - in the swing states only. In the event of an Electoral College tie RFK still wants to be considered for President. God he was irritating with his self-serving rationalizations.

I think movements and political parties fit into different categories. There may be a movement for reproductive rights, and the Democrats may have a policy on reproductive rights, and those are different things. In my opinion. There are three things which give me optimism about the Harris campaign. 1. In 2020 Biden's results didn't live up to the polling. I think this was partly to do with how they were campaigning, and not working the vote for turn out. They were observing pandemic protocols, remember "Biden campaigning from his basement", and the GOP was working the vote. That's not happening this time. 2. Unlike 2016 people are no longer embarrassed to support the former defeated President, and so the polls are probably more accurate. 3. I'm thinking - in spite of all the experts - that North Carolina is more likely than Georgia for the Harris campaign, and a maybe a Democratic governor might help with minimizing election interference by the MAGA element of the GOP.

Bill Clinton is speaking tonight. Bill Clinton's response to the Reagan revolution of voodoo economics [as described by George H W Bush] was to take the Democratic Party to the right. Biden's response to the chaos and greed of Trump was to tact back into the center of American politics, with feelers out to the left. Clinton and Biden had presidencies going in opposite directions. Is Clinton speaking to appeal to non-MAGA Republicans and Independents?

Most of the memes and news clip of Michelle Obama's speech are about "maybe the job he's [Trump] running for is a black job." However, the quote that I thought really nailed the state of the nation was calling out "the affirmative action of generational wealth." Yes, sister.

EmmetK this post is top-tier for you. Made me laugh. A short cut to the delusions being peddled in the MAGA fever swamp. Please tell us more news from the echo chamber @EmmetK. Your Coles Notes to the whining/name-calling/lying saves us all time.

If Tester doesn't win in Montana, how does the Harris campaign convey how completely obstructionist and insane a MAGA Senate is going to be, while sticking to their positive future vibes message? It's a criticism I have of the Democrats in Congress, not that I have an answer, it seems to me that they've never really been able to articulate how obstructionist the GOP has been for the last 14 years. In 2010 the Tea Bagging crazies took over the GOP agenda - and created chaos in government to distract from the Supreme Court legislating from the bench, with their life time appointments and their Christian Sharia law outlook.

Polls. Real Clear Politics includes junk polls in their averages, unaccounted for, in a way that 538 doesn't. Hence the difference between their voting averages and RCP. This election cycle there seems to be more hunk polling being done. I've brought this up in a previous post. HarrisX and Rasmussen seem to be churning out a lot of polls, and they are the best of the right wing biased agencies. Has anyone seen any actual documentation of this? It's just an anecdotal impression I have at this point. But, to your point, this feeds into the defeated former President pointing to some poll some where that showed he should have won.

There's some connection beyond the Louisiana Purchase.

What has Venezuela got to do with anything? The only candidate proposing a dictatorship is Trump.

The "red" states, plus Alaska and South Carolina, minus Illinois, Colorado and Minnesota.

Today's thought. All the "red" States are in the Missouri/Mississippi drainage basin, the rest of the country is "blue". (The blue exceptions being Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, and red exceptions South Carolina, Florida, Alaska and Maine 2.)

Today's thought. The peaceful transition of power, is one of the arguments for Washington DC to be recognized as a State. Coordinating security between, City police, National Guard and other federal agencies is currently needlessly complicated. The simplest and most efficient policing response in defense of democracy against the right-wing extremist threat to the peaceful transition of power is now, in the Trump era, a reality we have to face.

This next phase, you call it, with her talking issues and agenda. While she is doing that, Trump will criticize and complain about her platform, while running away from providing one of his own. It'll be irritating, as he always is.

I'm not sure what thread this fits under. Harris current bump in the polls is raising her to the levels that the Senate Democratic Party candidates were already polling at, they were always ahead of Biden's numbers against Trump. If there is any further growth in the numbers, this phase is going to be harder to achieve.

Further on this previous post of mine. Trump is almost to the point where he is not going to be campaigning on issues anymore. (He's always attempted to wiggle free of being held to specific promises.) At the point that he decides, and believes, that he's behind in the polls I think he will stop fighting the election campaign, and focus on fighting the election itself. He gave himself away at his unhinged press conference last week, "taking care of Clinton" and the creepy "the things we could have done to her." (You may have missed that with the focus on Walz using the preposition "in" instead of "of" about weapons of war.) If you can't play the game and win, the sore loser complains about the field conditions, and rules and the referees and ... whatever other excuse that creates an alternate narrative to the truth - you got beat. What does the Harris campaign do about that? It can't be a focus of the campaign because then they are playing on Trump's unhinged field. At the same time they can't ignore the defeated former President's attacks on the democratic process setting up who knows what next December/January. Does Harris continue to focus on values and policies, or try and weave the Trump threat to democracy into their freedom message? I do like the focus on freedom rather than democracy - it's seems more tangible and less theoretical to me, as well as the historical resonance. In summary, soon the defeated former President will soon be campaigning against the election, rather than campaigning in the election.

I know this isn't the point that Trump was making, but I think there is a point in life where maybe one does "turn black". Turn black in the sense that one becomes aware of racism. Not everyone is treated the same way and that some folks are not only physically white but also sociologically white, and some folks are not only physically black but also sociologically black and othered. I think that happens with gay kids too. The realization that we aren't all the same (of course we have to do it alone and not in solidarity with our families of origin). Trump's comments of course had nothing to do with empathy and how and when folks become aware of the differences there are in society.

What's the Dominica bank connection? I haven't heard of that part of the scam.

O'Donnell keeps begging Trump to sue him, it's a hilarious through line with him.

Fourth. In hindsight it might be a good thing that Biden did SO badly in the debate that he had no choice but to step down as the candidate. What America needs is an Italian mother. Hearing Nancy Pelosi on the interview circuit for her book, she is on point all the time. She ran Congress like she must have run a house of five kids. With love and precision. She probably spoke to Biden in the same manner, "we love you Joe, it's time to go, to cement your legacy."