stevenkesslar

There are a lot of smart people, both R and D, who say this is why Trump will lose in 2024. That, when push comes to shove, he is just so much of a big awful smelly piece of shit that people won't be able to vote for him. As much as they don't really want four more years of Biden. You can probably put Biden himself at the top of the list of people who feel this way. He has never said running against Trump gives him his best shot at winning. But everything he has said and done makes it seem like he wants to run against Trump. Who wouldn't want to run against a big awful smelly piece of shit? I know what the polls say. Mostly, they say the election is close, with Trump in the lead. But every election is about a decision to throw the bums out. The only time that really worked in Trump's favor is 2016. When people had no idea what he would actually be like as POTUS. Once that became clear - that he CAN NEVER BE TRUSTED - "throw the bums out" worked against Trump in 2018. And 2020. And 2022. People didn't really want what Trump and his devoted cult were offering. So it's not hard to imagine 2024 could end up the same way. I don't think it's something the polls can predict. Because people don't quite know whether Biden, who is unpopular, is worse than a big awful smelly piece of shit. The ace in the hole the MAGA crowd think they have is that the Biden economy sucks. I'm reading more and more articles about how Trump is the new Reagan. And Biden is the OLD and SENILE Jimmy Carter.. And all Trump has to keep asking is, "Are you better off than four years ago?" This confirms to me that MAGA types truly are fact free. And that they can't be trusted with truth, and ideas. The fact is, people are better off than four years ago. When Reagan asked that question, in 1980, the misery index peaked at 22. By the time Trump beat Hillary in 2016, it was a measly 6.4. By the time Biden beat Trump in 2020, it was a little higher, 7.9. Now it is 7. So the misery index is about one third of what it was when Reagan used it to club Carter to death. And it is lower than it was when Trump lost. And yet, somehow, a big awful smelly piece of shit who brought America more misery and CAN NEVER BE TRUSTED is still better? Somehow? Oh. And home prices and stock markets and average middle class net worth are at an all time high. Meanwhile, what Trump excels at is fleecing fools and giving tax breaks to rich people, including himself. So we're going to throw the bums out to get back a big awful smelly piece of shit we fired in 2020? Who we know for sure CAN NEVER BE TRUSTED? It doesn't make sense. MAGA folk are believing their own fact free bullshit, I suspect.

Okay. They're fucked. It was a heavy lift. But I did my job for 2024. Can we maybe just move on to 2028 and skip the ugliness of 2024? Maybe Kamala v. Nikki? That would be fun. By the way, thanks for being the long-winded one here. It takes pressure of me to have to write something verbose yet brilliant.. 😉

You completely missed the point. But then, that's predictable. Trump did three things with the border. First, he failed. Second, he failed. Third, he failed. Why bring back failure? Your argument is that a doubling of drug deaths is failure I agree. Trump failed. No matter how many lies Trump tells about winning elections or securing the border, he failed. There are broken cop bones and over 100,000 dead Americans from drug overdoses to prove it. All thanks to Trump. Trump is a loser. Trump failed. We need a bipartisan immigration deal. Republicans want it. Democrats want it. Centrists like Jon Tester are preparing for a big fight to win it. That is the best hope of stopping the fentanyl and stopping the drug deaths. And what does liar loser Trump want? He wants a "perfect" law, or no law at all. Just like his perfect Wall and perfect infrastructure bill and perfect ............................. NOTHING. The man failed at leading, and failed at getting laws passed. He opens his mouth and spreads hate and lies. But he can't get laws passed to deal with the border. Bringing this failed loser back simply means fentanyl deaths will double again. Just like they did when he was POTUS for four years AND GOT NOTHING DONE to stop the drug overdoses and fentanyl from flooding in. If Trump wants less fentanyl and less drug overdoses, he ought to get behind a bipartisan bill to deal with the problem now. Instead, all he wants to do is spread his own hate and lies and failure.

Exactly. And you are right that Biden doubled it again. We need bipartisan compromise on immigration to solve a problem that grew under both Presidents. The MAGA crowd ignores reality and believes in magical solutions. And breaking the bones of cops. Trump wants to block bipartisan immigration reform. Just like hard right Republicans have for a decade. Trump is saying Republicans should oppose any bipartisan compromise unless it is "perfect." Just like Mexico was going to pay for a perfect border wall. And instead fentanyl poured in and overdose deaths DOUBLED under DONALD TRUMP. Trump would rather have more drug overdoses than compromise and solutions. He is a failed leader who was fired.

Why did DONALD TRUMP let this happen? Answer your own question. Why did DONALD TRUMP let fentanyl deaths spike while HE was President? Why did DONALD TRUMP, failed POTUS who hates democracy and compromise, let this happen? Fentanyl deaths spiked in the US to the tens of thousands while this evil, lying, spiteful. democracy-hating brute was leader. Why did DONALD TRUMP let tens of thousands of Americans die of fentanyl death every year on his watch? Why does DONALD TRUMP hate democracy and bipartisan compromise? Factual notes to people who have problems with facts: In 2017, when about 28,466 Americans died of fentanyl, a huge spike from Obama days, Trump was POTUS In 2018, when about 31,335 Americans died of fentanyl, Trump was POTUS In 2019, when about 36,359 Americans died of fentanyl, Trump was POTUS In 2020, when about 56,515 Americans died of fentanyl, Trump was POTUS Trump, all talk and no action, let the problem get completely out of control. He sucks at leading, he sucks at compromise, and he hates democracy. Trump is a loser. He did nothing but spew hate and lies while tens of thousands of Americans died thanks to his horrific mal-leadership. Why would we want this hateful loser back? Trump is against the one thing that can improve the situation: bipartisan compromise from the top down.

No. Donald Trump did. Tens of thousands of Americans died of drug overdose thanks to Trump's ineptitude and failure. God made Trump. And then, right after God made Trump, God made fentanyl. And Trump let the fentanyl pour in from Mexico and kill the Americans God made. That's an old chart. But I posted that to highlight that fentanyl deaths went through the roof under Trump. If having Trump as President was a solution, the problem would have been solved. Instead, both fentanyl smuggling and American fentanyl death skyrocketed when Trump was POTUS. Nobody knew stopping fentanyl was so difficult, it turns out. Certainly not Trump. Trump knows one thing: how to make democracy fail. He is good at taking democracy and turning it into the black hole he lives and thrives in. Everything Trump touches dies. The obvious version of how Trump makes democracy fail is this. When you lose an election, what you do is break the bones of cops. That is what you do under Trumpocracy. You send your mob to the Capitol, try to stop an election, and beat the living shit out of as many cops as you can. That is how Trump obviously makes democracy fail. On border control, Trump stands within a longer right wing tradition of how you make democracy fail. Obama kept a tight border. And all the numbers show it. Obama had an immigration compromise that passed the Senate 2-1 in 2014 and almost became law. It was killed by right wingers in the House. So, since then, there has been no compromise. Trump for sure sucked at compromise. Trump for sure was helpless to do anything as fentanyl flooded in and killed Americans when he was POTUS. All Trump excels at is killing democracy. Biden is now close to a compromise, again. And the danger, once again, is right wingers in the House. And now we can add Trump who, by all accounts, wants to block compromise on immigration that most Americans want. Trump would rather have more fentanyl and more dead Americans than have bipartisan compromise that would make Biden look effective. Just like Biden was able to get the infrastructure law and gun control and health care and other popular compromises that Trump sucked at. Trump urges GOP against compromise on border That is because all Trump is good at is making democracy fail. And not knowing who Nancy Pelosi is, of course.

Oh, the good old days. Now we are down to, "Nobody knew remembering who Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama are could be so difficult." 🤪 5 times Trump showed signs of possible mental decline & isn't fit for the White House

And therein lies the problem. Almost a third of Americans still believe the 2020 election result was fraudulent So the idea is that we can make up any shit we want and tell lies until they sound like truth and be mean and cruel. And if you try to ban us or shut us up you are Nazi oppressors. And we will whine our little billionaire ass off like a cry baby because YOU are the bad Nazi. Of course, only Trump is a billionaire. Everyone else is a sucker who sends him money and believes his lies. Even though they get nothing but whining out of the deal. And he tries to take their health care away. We have been here and done this before. Anyone watch Fellow Travelers? Roy Cohn and McCarthyism come to mind. Let the lies, the pus, the cruelty, the meanness expose itself. Whether it is the extreme - like Hitler - or just banal lies and cruelty - like Cohn, it eventually becomes clear that these people just fester in their own lies and pus.

Neither can I. Just to be clear, on the issue of immigration and borders, I quoted a Republican House member saying he would be a "traitor" to not to accept a political compromise around uncontrolled borders. Neither he, nor I, argued that opposition to uncontrolled borders implies treason. His point was that opposition to political compromise on the issue implies treason. I agree. (Kevin) McCarthyite Rep. Patrick McHenry made the same point without talking about treason. Of course, who woulda thunk that being a member of the US House had anything to do with principles, sound policy, and compromise?

Agreed. But perhaps the point here is that there are ways to make their voices heard BY breaking the law. I have no idea how far they are willing to go. There is certainly a growing chasm between young Democrats who see Netanyahu as Mr. Apartheid, and Israeli Jews who support Plan Netanyahu. Even as they blame the bloodbath that is a predictable result of Plan Netanyahu on Netanyahu. Even though they want Bibi to go bye bye, polls show most Jewish Israelis agree with Netanyahu's rejection of a two state solution. And most Palestinians have lost faith in a two state solution, or pretty much any road to peace. So time will not heal this wound. It will deepen it. There have been a few loud resignations of diplomat/State Dept. types who said it's worth losing my job over this. I think the road is more likely to get bumpier than smoother. Like it or not, which I don't, it seems to me that a majority of Israeli Jews are committed to an apartheid state as the de facto solution. Which, unfortunately, involves killing lots of Palestinian women and children. Like ir or not, which I don't, Palestinians are becoming more and more committed to the idea that the point of a permanent war with Israeli Jews is to kill Israeli Jews. It's ugly. Predictable, but ugly. The other question is whether any of these walk outs or protests are even effective. In general, without singling out any particular event or tactic, I think the answer is clearly YES. 49 % of Democrats now say the US does not support Palestinians enough. Only 14 % say we support Palestinians too much. Among Independents, 34 % say we support Palestinians too little, and 28 % say we support them too much. All these numbers are a big shift from when the bloodbath started. Although it probably has less to do with US political protests. And more to do with what people read about the the death toll of Palestinian women and children.

Note: Dan Crenshaw is a Republican U.S. House member. From a Politico article on negotiations over an immigration compromise and Ukraine/Israel aid. Again, I am not making this argument. Compromise-oriented Republicans are making this argument. I noted in a different thread that RFK, Jr. has some interesting arguments on this issue. Politically, he is playing for the middle. He takes most of Trump's "secure the border" goals, but defines illegal immigrants in a humanitarian way. I find that helpful. My point is that if Crenshaw is right and hundreds of thousands more people cross the border illegally, at least we can say they are people fleeing for their lives in many cases. So this level of illegal immigration is clearly unpopular and a massive pain in the ass. But I don't feel like it's evil to give people a chance to live and prosper. Even if they are a huge pain in the ass. This all fits with Reagan's vision of a shining city on the hill, and his immigration compromise law. That comes way closer to my definition of evil. And traitorous. And definitely murderous. What some Republicans are saying is we would rather give Biden a political loss, even if it makes it easier for Murderous Vlad to kill women and children in Ukraine. I think it is fair to call that murderous. In outcome, if not intent. And possibly traitorous as well. My World War II veteran Reagan Republican Dad, who lived long enough to be disgusted by President Trump, would be shocked that his Republican Party would throw democracy and Ukraine under the bus. Why? So that Trump can win and cut a deal with Murderous Vlad.

That is correct. It is all that really matters TO YOU. You are a zealot. You drank the Koolaid. So of course you'll believe whatever you want. And whatever Trump says. The hostages had every right to break the bones and crush the skulls of the cops who were trying to stop Trump's patriots from saving democracy. Whatever! Name one election where the polls on third parties turned out to be accurate? I won't repost what I did in a different thread. But there's lots of proof that many voters, Gen Z and Blacks in particular, are saying they will vote for RFK Jr. or West now. It's a bit less than a year from when they vote. Right now they are pissed at Biden (Palestinian baby killer!) or disappointed (high prices!). Trump took the lead right around when Israel starting bombing the shit out of Palestinian women and children. But all evidence from all past elections suggests something like half of the RFK/West crowd will switch back to Biden once they actually have to choose between Biden and Trump. But "all evidence from all past elections" is simply not a concept that interests you. If I want to discuss why cops should be beaten savagely to protect democracy and glorify Trump, that would interest you. Doug Schoen, whose most recent claim to fame is that he advised Mike Bloomberg on how to blow a part of his fortune making an ass out of himself in 2020, recently suggested that maybe 2024 will be like 1980. Reagan, deemed unelectable, wiped Carter's ass over inflation. Maybe Trump is the new Reagan? Sure. Just like Bloomberg was the new Reagan in 2020. Whatever! Fun concept. Especially for fact free thinkers. But Trump is actually the new Carter. He did lose in 2020, just like Carter lost in 1980. That's just a fact. But don't tell that to the hostages who beat the living shit out of cops because Trump won. Whatever! If we are dealing in facts, not lies and cruelty, we know this. In Nov. 1980, when Reagan kicked Carter's ass, his core argument was that the misery index (inflation plus unemployment) was 20.1. In Nov. 2016, when Trump won, the misery index was 6.4. In Nov. 2020, when Trump was fired, the misery index was 7.9 - higher than when Trump took office. Today, the misery index is 7.0, lower than when Biden took office. So there was more misery when Trump ended than when he started. Which helps explain why he lost. And why cops had to be savagely attacked based on Trump's democracy-killing lies. Which created more misery. At least for the cops. And for democracy. There is less misery today than when Biden took office. That's a fact, if we want to use Reagan's argument correctly. So, again, Trump is actually the old Carter. He lost in 2020 because under him misery went up. Trump is a loser. That is just a fact.

If Trump wins, that is why. So you have a point. But you're of course NOT factually correct. You never are. More than half of voters say they are worse off under Biden: poll According to that poll, 55 % feel worse off and 45 % feel better off. That's not good for Biden. But it's not horrible. Compared to polls a year ago, when inflation was peaking and scary, I think Biden is in a slightly better position. If inflation stays down, interest rates start to go down, and the stock market keeps going up, he'll be better off still in November. What we don't know is whether voters will feel better or worse off under Trump fascism, Trump cruelty, Trump lies, Trump rape, and Trump wanton criminal behavior. Cops might feel better that lots of their bones will be broken by Trump supporters freeing "hostages." And other fun democracy-building activities like that, which make me want to cry. My read of 2018, 2020, and 2022 is that somehow this factors in to voter decisions. And it hurt Trump. A lot. Here's proof. If it was just about feeling better off, Trump would have won in 2020. It is why he won in 2016. There's a mystery of polling in 2020 no one really talks about, or maybe even knows. But it does not bode well for Trump in 2024. In 2016 31 % of people said they were better off than four years ago, 27 % worse off, and 41 % the same. In 2016, when Trump won, the people who felt better off voted 3 to 1 for Clinton. And the people who felt worse off broke roughly 3 to 1 for Trump. Makes sense. And that happens every 4 years, based on CNN exit polls. If people feel better off, they vote overwhelmingly for the incumbent party. In 2016, and almost every year going back to 2000, the people who feel the same as four years ago tend to split their vote about 50/50. In 2016 47 % of the "same as four years ago" voters went for Clinton, 45 % for Trump. In 2020 41 % felt better off than four years ago, and only 20 % felt worse off. Once again, better off went about 3 to 1 for Trump, the incumbent. Worse off went about 3 to 1 for Biden. But compare the percentage that felt better off to 2016. With so many more people feeling better off than 2016, and so many fewer feeling worse off, Trump should have won, right? The inexplicable thing is that in 2020 the 39 % who said they were the same as four years ago DID NOT split 50/50. They broke about 2 to 1 for Biden. That was very different than the pattern going back at least 20 years. That alone explains why Trump lost. People who felt no better or worse off preferred Biden 2 to 1, for some reason. Why? Those are facts. But my theory is that all the other stuff about Trump just felt wrong to people. And that was BEFORE the Jan. 6th cop bone breaking. That was before all the indictments over trying to steal an election and shit all over democracy. Of course, we all got the memo that Donald Trump Hillary Clinton is so far ahead in the polls that of course she MUST win, right? 😯 Remember that? Right now Trump is ahead of Biden 1.6 % in the RCP average. Hillary led Trump by at least that much for most of 2016. Biden was only half a point behind Trump as recently as Jan. 10. And before the "bomb Palestinian kids" stuff Biden had a small lead over Trump in the averages. So who is saying it's inevitable the raping fascist cop bone breaker has to win? Give me a break!

One of the most beautiful parts of how God Made Trump is that the rape is not limited to Trump himself. Granted, Trump is bar none the most sexually enticing human being in the entire universe, for all eternity. But even Jesus himself could make only so many loaves of bread. Even Trump, with his enormous cock and virility, can't feed his entire flock. No. Trump has created a rape culture party. So that all God's creatures can rape each other. Let's say it's Make America Rape Again. Johnson flails as Republicans demand consequences for conservative hijacking This is a sex-oriented website. I used to be a paid whore. So can I just be blunt? Marjorie Taylor Greene is going to rape Mike Simpson while Speaker Johnson, a true friend of the LGBTQ community, watches. And if Johnson doesn't like it, Greene and pals will just shove it right down Speaker Johnson's throat. That is what the rape party is. That is what the rape party does. Not only do they rape women, and democracy. The rape each other. Simpson, an old school fool, does not understand this. He's about to get raped and learn. And since Taylor is a woman, that means Simpson can expect to get a new budget deal shoved up his ass, basically. Or maybe she can get a strap on budget deal. Speaker Johnson himself will flail while Trumpy Republicans rape and rape and rape each other. And maybe break the bones of more cops, just to keep it all interesting. This is why we're all happy God Made Trump. Then again, this is why the House will be Democratic in 2025, and Biden will beat Trump. Most people don't like rape, extreme politics, and chaos.

Duh! But seriously, @EmmetK. You're going after the low hanging fruit here. Biden supporters have to be almost as senile as he is. Why bother? Trump is the stable genius. On the first day, he ends the Ukraine War. On the second day, he prevents World war III. On the third day, we all notice our penis has grown 3" larger. On the fourth day, we get to rape whoever we want. Quickly, and very easily. And that's not even near Sunday, when we celebrate how God Made Trump. The Second Coming will be a hoot. But, again, why am I stating the obvious? These are just a few of the reasons why Trump won in a landslide in 2020. The real subtle and stunning beauty of it all is the level of sophistication of Trump's cult especially when it comes to foreign policy and stuff.

The video nailed it. I said in a different thread I find Trump to be extremely sexually enticing. This is why. I came twice watching that video. I can't help myself. Who can? If I were to make the smallest of critiques, I don't believe the video gives Melania the credit she deserves. Even the strongest of leaders needs a partner (meaning a woman, not a queer and definitely not Mike Pence) by his side. On April 26, 1970 God made Melania. She completes Trump. She makes him his best. Thank you God!

Thanks for confirming you're intently and happily divorced from reality. Dream on! And speaking of dreaming and denial: Stefanik pre-emptively declines to commit to accepting 2024 election results Every time one of the fervent cultists says something like this this, and says they will happily overturn an election if they don't like the results, it reinforces the toxic horror the majority of Americans feel. I hope the cultists keep saying it. We will only accept the results of democracy when we win. Women of color are welcome in our party. But only if they pledge fealty to our cult leader. Otherwise, we will tear them down. If a House Speaker comes up with a plan to bring right of center Blacks and Hispanics into our party, and get them elected to the House, we will not only refuse to thank him. We will tear him down and destroy him and drive him to resignation for not being fervently obedient to the White right wing cult compliant Freedom Caucus. Next thing on the agenda: kill the very compromise immigration bill they claim they want. You heard it here first. Please. Just keep telling America who you really are. And what you really believe. And how deep your contempt for facts and democracy really goes. Democrats have been very clear. In any other country on the planet called a democracy, Gore won by over 500,000 votes in 2000. In any other country on the planet called a democracy, Clinton won by almost 3 million votes in 2006. The electoral college is a legal gerrymander, originally used to support slavery, that Americans oppose by a 2 to 1 margin in poll after poll. So if we want to talk about what it means to have to live with the outcome of an election that a Republican POTUS lost, based on majority rule, FOR TWELVE YEARS, Democrats know a lot about that. Again, it's a fact that the electoral college is a legal gerrymander. So Democrats just sucked it up in the name of democracy. The cultists refuse to suck it up, or deal with reality. If they can't have it their way, they will destroy democracy instead. Trump has made that incredibly clear. He has employed violence to get his way. And then tried to blame the cop beating and bone breaking on everyone but him. And the cult is obediently lining up behind him.

That's the part that is so pathetically tragic. Even a 12 year old understands that facts can't just be what you want them to be. And democracy can't only work when you win. What is it about this MAGA minority that breeds contempt for basic facts, and deep and enduring hatred for democracy? Even a 12 year old is better than that. Seriously. Why the contempt? Why the hatred for America? This is NOT funny. It is hatred. It is contempt. That's a good example of the casual disdain for anything that doesn't fit in the universe of lies Trumps constantly spews. It's unfortunate you believe whatever bullshit he feeds you. Because it will just feed more disappointment, hatred, and contempt from the cop beating MAGAttes. Just like in 2018. Just like in 2020. Just like in 2022. People see and feel the contempt and hatred. People are on the side of the cops whose bones were broken by Trump's thugs. You don't see it, because you believe in the cult. Trump is up about two points against Biden in the RCP average. It's not good news for Biden, for sure. But Biden was up two points in January 2023. And Trump was up two points in May 2023. And Biden was up one point in September 2023. And Trump was up one point in October 2023. So enjoy it while it lasts. Because it won't. The only good guess we can make is that the election will be close, just like in 2016 and 2020. What I find most encouraging, and you don't even get, is that people who voted for Biden in 2020 and view him unfavorably right now are completely disgusted by Trump. And they are not likely to vote for Trump in 2024. What we don't know is whether they will hold their nose and vote for Biden to avoid the re-contamination of US democracy with Trump's contempt for facts. And his hatred of The Constitution. My personal guess is they will hold their nose and vote for Biden and Democrats, just like in 2020 and 2022. I'm glad Trump voters don't really want to see reality. Because it will help Democrats win again. What the poll you cited shows is that lots of 2020 Biden supporters are saying we'll vote for RFK or West or Stein instead. So, yes. When you move 2020 Biden supporters to that column, Trump's margin grows. It's bullshit. But, please, believe it. Believe Blacks and Hispanics and young voters are flocking to Trump's lies and contempt for democracy. Believe whatever you want. Spew hate. Spew lies. It will just help Democrats win. Trump is actually doing WORSE among Blacks, Hispanics, and young voters than in 2020, when you bother with actual facts. This Quinnipiac poll is typical of all the ones I have seen that really dig in to facts. When you add RFK and West, Trump gets 9 % of the Black vote, 26 % of the Hispanic vote, and 27 % of voters aged 18-34. In all three cases, that is WORSE than he did in 2020. Not better. So believe the bullshit. But what's happening is that voters who are pissed about the fact that prices won't go back down or Biden is supporting Israel or the SCOTUS thwarted him on student loan forgiveness are camping out with RFK or West for now. Will they vote for Trump? Of course not. Trump disgusts them. Trump's lies disgust them. Trump's hatred for democracy disgusts them. What Trump might be hoping for is these voters just stay home. But as soon as Trump and his cultists like you open their mouths, everybody else gets very scared. That is exactly what happened in 2018. It happened again in 2020. It happened again in 2022. You don't want to see it, or believe. You only believe in facts you like. You only believe in democracy when you win. Everybody outside the 25 % MAGA minority is really sick of the bullshit. Thank you for reminding us of how sick of the bullshit we are. Republicans cast doubt on whether Biden can win legitimately in 2024 This is why Haley would probably beat Biden, if Republicans nominated her. But, instead, the Trump cult will do everything they can do to destroy Haley. The overwhelmingly White MAGA cult loves women of color. But only when they vote for Trump. Otherwise, they are vermin. In destroying Haley, the democracy haters will help destroy any chance Trump has of winning. You just can't see or believe that this is deep toxic horror to the majority of Americans. Just like Jan. 6th was. You are deeply committed to hate, lies, and contempt for democracy. All of this is why Biden will probably win. I still think the key variables are that inflation continues to subside, real wages increase as pay raises surpass inflation, and the economy keeps growing. People won't love Biden. But they won't hate him for a growing economy and all time high home values and stock prices. They will hate Trump, deeply and permanently, for his lies and contempt for democracy. Even a 12 year old understands these things about America and democracy better than you do. It's sad.

Duh! Like that wasn't obvious already. Here's what is less obvious. How much does he pay them to throw themselves at him? And how much does he have to pay to shut them up then? And do I have to throw myself at Michael Cohen to get paid? Trump is extremely sexually enticing. But that Cohen dude is like Mike Pence. He just kills my hard on instantaneously. Anyway, if it's $130,000 or so, I'd throw myself at Trump, just like Stormy. But I don't have a pussy. So I'd give him a discunt.

Goodie goodie goodie!!!!! You know, Trump totally fucked up Christmas 2020 and New Years 2021. I hate losers! I hate losers who lose elections! Pence and a Christmas call star in Trump indictment I hate honest people. And I really hate losers. So as far as I am concert honest losers like Pence should be hanged or something. Give that honest loser a gallows or something. So for Christmas 2024 I was kind of hoping Trump would call and berate me and call me a loser. Then again, I'm no Mike Pence. Can Trump at least get some of his people to go break the bones of some cops or something? Or maybe fuck up The Constitution or something?

The appropriate thing for Joe Biden to do is get his drug addict son into treatment. Which he did. Question: What is the appropriate thing for victims of the Trump cult who spent months in prison because of Trump's lies to do? Answer: Just tell the truth. Convicted Jan. 6 participant: Trump is a 'dangerous' cult leader

Nice try, @EmmetK. But, sadly, you are no Donald Trump. Trump learned well from Roy Cohn. Take everything bad and criminal about you, and accuse other people of being that. So of course Trump is going to attack Biden for being a criminal, a liar, bankrupt, a rapist, whatever. Trump does it more persuasively than you, though. Here's a simple question: Hunter Biden is a total money whore, who took millions from Chinese Communists. Donald Trump is a total money whore, who took millions from Chinese Communists. What is the difference between these two men? Hunter Biden may be a money whore. But he was not President, or even the drug addict son of a President, when he did it. Trump was President when he did it. He whored up as much money as he could get from Chinese Communists. As did his daughter. The money whoring of President Trump and his family was staggering in dimension. The deep and unethical cover up by Republicans like Comer is staggering, too. If Comer wants to go after the drug addict son of Biden for being a money whore, great. But then he needs to go after Donald and his crime family for being way bigger money whores, too. Instead of leading a cover up of Trump's money whoring. Being a drug addict who peddles influence is not a violation of The Constitution. Being a money whore President like Trump who proudly sucks up millions from Chinese communists is. But, hey, Trump's been very clear that he is proud to violate The Constitution. His money whore son Eric says it's a "joke" to even bring up the fact that the Trumps took way more money from the very same Chinese communists bureaucrats they attack Hunter for money whoring around with. Pot, meet kettle. Money whore, meet drug addict. And that is not even mentioning billion dollar Jared, and that whole money whoring thing with Saudis with bone saws. Jared's even a bigger money whore than his criminal father was. And, unlike Hunter, he was working in The White House while he was being a billion dollar money whore. Money whores, money whores, money whores. The whole Trump money whore family never met a Chinese communist with money, or a Saudi dictator with a bone saw, that they didn't like. Money whores! Wrong. This may be the first Presidential election in my lifetime where it boils down to Joe Biden holding a sign says, "That's malarkey!" Politico is on it. This is their top story today: Why Jan. 6 is a problem for Trump’s campaign Views of the attack have shifted among Republicans, but it remains toxic with the rest of the electorate. So Democrats, former Democrats, Independents, and former Republicans overwhelmingly agree. Trump did something either illegal, or unethical but not illegal. In one typical poll, almost half say "illegal". A little more than a quarter say "unethical, but not illegal". This poll, like many others, was taken several years after the "illegal" or "unethical" election lies and election stealing violence took place. So people are not changing their minds about what they saw on Jan. 6th that disgusted them about Trump. That does leave about one quarter of Americans, mostly the MAGA crowd, who are happy to overlook "illegal" and "unethical" behavior, lie about it, or blame it on Hunter or Joe Biden. Roy Cohn would love ya, @EmmetK. Toxic is still toxic, no matter how much you lie about it. But at least you get an A for effort.

And Biden duly noted what I refer to as the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating as well. After all, what could be more patriotic than breaking the bones of police officers? Biden: "By Trying To Rewrite The History Of January 6, Trump Is Trying To Steal History The Way He Tried To Steal The Election" I thought his speech was great. Yes, he looks old. Yes, he stumbles over words even more than he has normally stumbled over words for decades. But he clearly showed fire and passion. I think calling out Trump as a fascist wannabe is a necessary but not sufficient part of his re-election strategy. The most effective thing Biden did was to just quote Trump. About how he wants to be a dictator, kind of. And how I'm vermin because I oppose him. Who knew? People call me verbose. But not vermin. 😯 If 2024 is solely a referendum on Biden, I'd say he has at best a 50/50 chance. Too many people are too pissed off that higher prices won't go back down. Even if their net worth and the stock market and their home value is at an all time high. Biden needs to make it a referendum on Trump as well. Which he has now clearly demonstrated he can and will do. The thing Trump can't escape is that he did try to steal an election. His lies about 2020, and what he told his thugs to do, are despicable. Most people other than loyal Trump supporters know this to be true. Biden needs to keep reminding them. People will sort out whether they care more about democracy, or how much more a Big Mac costs than four years ago. One more paragraph on Biden and what he needs to do to win that goes beyond Jan. 6th. Kudos to Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, who just unintentionally did a great job of making a self-defeating argument about why Biden must step aside. Schoen's latest claim to fame was advising Mike Bloomberg on how to spend $1 billion getting nowhere in the 2020 Democratic primary. Oops. Schoen points out what we all know: Biden's poll numbers suck. So he must be replaced. But by who? How about Kamala Harris? Nope. Her numbers are worse. Okay. How about Hillary Clinton? Nope. She lost in 2016, remember? The only "okay, but who else?" Schoen can come up with is Gavin Newsom, who polls the same as Biden. Somehow Schoen thinks that Trump being a little ahead of Biden in January 2024 is awful. But Trump being a little ahead of Newsom in January 2024 is promising. Huh? So his argument is Democrats should somehow dump an incumbent President to replace him with someone else, somehow, who polls just as badly. Huh? Again, this may explain why Schoen's advice led Bloomberg to spend $1 billion to win nothing. I trust Biden's political judgment on how to win more. He managed to be Senator, Veep, and POTUS for over half a century so far. Give 'em hell, Joe!

You wandered around two issues in your post. The impact of Israel's war on the 2024 election. And broader Democratic Party turnout issues. So I'll do the same. Politics is fickle. I had high hopes for Abrams. And her voter registration work was, and is, incredible. It got Warnock elected. That said, she ran for Guv twice and lost twice. The second time by a wider margin than the first. In that same 2022 election where she did worse than she did in 2018, Warnock won again. There's lots of factors that went into that. But, at the end of the day, your point is about being about to win in 2024. And Abrams was not able to win. In Michigan, on the other hand, Whitmer is a huge winner. The rhetoric in Fall 2022 was that she might be a victim of the red wave. What red wave? Instead, she clobbered her opponent, took over the legislature, and has followed through with all kinds of legislative wins. So, again, politics is fickle. Biden is clearly in trouble. And the war in Israel does not help. Steve Kornacki helpfully contributed that right now his favorability rating is lower than any POTUS entering an election year in polling history. Even if he surges in his election year, like Obama and Clinton did before him, will it be enough? I think one thing we can safely bet on is that this will be one of the most negative campaigns ever. Some recent poll said that a majority of people who plan to vote for both Trump and Biden view it as a vote against the other guy, rather than for their guy. Biden will have to paint Trump as what one anonymous Biden aide called "full on Hitler." That said, it complicates matters when Biden is the one selling bombs to Bibi. I guess Biden's argument will be that, at the end of the day, Trump loves Bibi better. Ugh! Anyone who has a big problem with Bibi should also have a big problem with Trump, given how he favored Bibi as POTUS. Trump, Kushner and Netanyahu are hellbent on destroying the two-state solution Biden, of course, is doing the exact opposite. And saying the end goal must be a two state solution. There's a lot of prognosticating about how a lot of people who are turned off just won't vote. On the Biden side, that would include lots of young voters who feel like he's on Team Bibi The Baby Bomber. I don't have a clue. Biden will try to make it a referendum on the future of democracy and civilization. I would not be surprised if it is another huge turnout election. And, if it is, I have no clue whether that would favor Trump or Biden. Biden's stance on Israel won't help. Inflation has been his biggest problem. But, in theory, Israel or immigration or impeachment could all be seen as final nails in the coffin if he loses. There are a few things I find somewhat encouraging. There's been a lot of talk about how Biden is bleeding support among base voters. Especially young, Black, and Hispanic voters. This November Quinnipiac poll addresses that dynamic, I think. When you add RFK Jr. and West, Biden is in fact bleeding support in those three base groups: 41 % of voters under 35 say they'll vote for RFK or West. 35 % of Blacks and 41 % of Hispanics say the same. That's huge. And of course bad news for Biden. That said, in the same poll Trump has the support of 9 % of Blacks, 26 % of Hispanics, and 27 % of voters under 35. In all three cases, that is WORSE than he did with each group in 2020, based on exit polls. So the issue is NOT that Trump is winning over young voters, or Blacks, or Hispanics. It's that Biden is losing them to "anybody but Trump or Biden." But when it actually comes down to either Trump or Biden, and both sides argue their opponent will destroy America, who knows where young voters, Blacks, and Hispanics will go? Or whether they vote at all? That's probably what will determine who wins. If I had to bet, if they voted for Biden in 2020 they are mostly likely to hold their nose in 2024 and vote for him again, though. Which is mildly encouraging. That's another reason for mild encouragement. As this article notes, Biden has been very consistent in rebuilding the DNC "one team, one fight" party machinery that Obama basically left bankrupt. Will that help? Probably. We know when Obama was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012, his star power and Obama-focused grassroots organizing worked well. In 2010 and 2014 turnout sucked, and it was a disaster. One reason some people think Democrats beat the red trickle in 2022 is because they did a good job on party machinery and turnout in swing states and districts. That said, I don't think anyone knows yet what kind of wave will form in 2024. Israel, and how people feel about the bombing of innocent Palestinians, will not help. West has already said he'll use this in Michigan to win votes of Palestinians. Any wave that forms to help Biden will have to lift him from crappy 40 % favorable ratings. That's much worse than Obama and Clinton were in January of their re-election year. And such a wave will be based way more on fear of Trump than on warm fuzzies for Old Joe. To paraphrase the OP, out of context: THIS IS SCARY!