stevenkesslar

Okay love. Here ya go. Problem solved. Piece of cake! Thank God Israel listened to John and Yoko back when this was filmed. And there has been nothing but love and peace between Israelis and Palestinians ever since. I just fucking hate history and complexity. Let alone ambiguity. It's so unnecessary! Any other global crisis we need to solve with a bumper sticker? This was fun! I'm free tomorrow. Are you guys up for solving things between Vlad and Xi and Joe? I have a few great bumper stickers in mind. 😉

Thanks for pushing back. I'm intentionally saying some things to provoke debate. As I suspect other people posting are. It would be a very good thing if there were a long and deep debate right now. Among Israelis and Palestinians especially. But also among the world who will be held hostage by whatever Israel and their enemies decide. Sorry if you don't want anything more than sound bites. If sound bites win, I'd bet on "Hamas = Hitler = Bomb Them Into Oblivion" being the winner. Which would be a tragedy. I actually believe more is more. That's a five minute summary by Fareed that pretty much sums up how I feel about the current situation. Sorry if listening to someone for more than a sentence or a paragraph is too exhausting for some people. But this longer 45 minute conversation with Fareed gets even deeper into ambiguities, and I think adds a lot. Less is not more. Sound bites are not policy. Sorry if I'm offending Trump lovers or Twitter lovers who prefer simple sound bites. You did seriously misrepresent what I said about what I believe motivated the US. Which was not revenge. National building is more like the opposite of revenge. In sound bite terms, building a nation is much more difficult than bombing a city into a parking lot. I did say the immediate goal was to "get rid of the Taliban." I still think that was the right thing to do. In that regard, Americans are seemingly very much like Israelis - both in 2001 and today. The principle I agree with, and I think most people agree with, is that terrorists and acts of terror need to be punished, so they don't occur again. I don't think that is the same as "revenge." Part of the reason I think toppling the Taliban in 2001 and then leaving Afghanistan shortly afterward might have made more sense is that even if the Taliban eventually returned to power, whether in 2011 or 2021, the experience of being removed from power - or killed - might have taught them not to try that again. Hopefully that is still true of the Taliban today. Israel clearly has the same thing in mind with Hamas. And I agree with that policy. They talk as if they think they will destroy Hamas. They won't, of course. But it makes sense to let Hamas and the world know that beheading Jewish babies is a very bad idea, and will result in the certain assassination of Hamas leaders. I stand 1000 % behind Israel on that. "Nation building" is pretty much the opposite of "revenge," I think. Sorry if thinking things through irritates some people here. But a conservative Republican friend who loved posting on Daddy's site and I pretty much correctly predicted 20 years of tragedy within months of 9/11. He argued that we need to just bomb the living fuck out of Afghanistan. But, he predicted, W. will fuck it all up by putting US boots on the ground. I asked him what happens if we bomb the fuck out of Afghanistan, and what rises from the ashes is even worse? He said, verbatim, "That's easy. Then we just go bomb the fuck out of them again." I think that five minute conversation pretty much nailed 20 years of tragic American history. Especially when you add Iraq to the mix. And how we bombed the fuck out of a country we had no right to invade. And instead managed to create ISIS. "Nation building" in Afghanistan was not a "revenge" motivation. You can argue it was liberal. And you can certainly argue it was naive. And expensive, in treasure and blood of the US and our allies. I think the record is clear that the agenda was to make Afghanistan a better place, and a democracy. Not to blow it to shit and turn it into a parking lot. And that is precisely where I part ways with Israel. And I think lots of moderate people who abhor violence do. Sorry to believe more is more. But Fareed mentions in his 45 minute conversation that past Israeli PMs, like Barak and Olmert, offered Palestinians a state that they were dead wrong not to take. Because whatever deal future Palestinians could possibly get as they grow weaker and weaker, and more of the occupied lands are settled by Israelis, will only be worse. So you could argue Israel used to be for at least accepting a Palestinian nation. If not actual nation building. As Fareed argues, I think the Netanyahu Doctrine was basically "nation denying." The one thing Bibi and his right wing supporters could not tolerate was the idea of a Palestinian state. It's perhaps a stretch to argue, as Fareed does, that Bibi was essentially for "Hamas building." Because having them around as bad guys made it easier to suppress peaceful and moderate Palestinian voices. But I agree with Fareed on that. I lay the blame at the feet of Netanyahu. I'm glad many Israelis do, too. I don't think you can compare a 20 year nation building project in Afghanistan that promoted democracy, womens' rights, and economic development with the idea of systematically turning Gaza into an open air prison. And then turning off their lights and water when they do something hawks in Israel don't like. If your point is that Afghanistan was a 20 year failed effort, we agree. If your point is that Americans spent 20 years of blood and treasure because we wanted revenge, plain and simple, I think you are just wrong. There's one more complicated and ambiguous point Fareed makes that is vital. As fucked up, and as predictably fucked up, as the Iraq invasion was, it's not like the withdrawal of US power in the Middle East has resulted in a utopian society anchored in tolerance and peace. It created a power vacuum that is clearly being filled by bad players doing bad things. So I don't think "it's just that America sucks, stupid" is a useful bumper sticker. I was loud that America sucked for starting a war in Iraq. I don't think America did or does suck for what we tried to do in Afghanistan. As Biden said, explicitly, these are exactly the things Israelis should be debating and reflecting on if they want to avoid 20 more years of tragedy. I hope they listen to him.

I think that is true of Biden. I'm not sure I would say that about the US, in general. There are lots of warmongers in both political parties. And lots of people say this is black and white. Hamas is Hitler, and they need to be exterminated. Period. Read some of the posts above. I used the pronoun "we" to generally refer to the 88 % of Americans who supported an invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, at least in one poll. I don't think there is as clear a "we" - meaning a vast majority of Americans - on Israel and Gaza now. A much better example would be the Iraq invasion, which I deeply opposed and which was bitterly divisive in the US from the start. Not to mention the world. I've maintained that the US no longer has a pro-Israel majority. Meaning a majority of Americans who will back Israel, "whatever it takes." I think many, and perhaps a majority, of Americans see deep moral ambiguity. And they lean toward peace, not war. That is particularly true of younger Democrats. All that said, everything I see, read, and hear leads me to believe that most Palestinian Americans feel Biden has stabbed them in the back. He is sending weapons to Israel, and dismissing their concerns. That is part of what makes this both poilitically and morally fraught. ‘The man broke my heart’: Biden’s Arab-American boosters begin to leave his side These Arab-Americans were among Biden’s biggest fans. Now they’re warning they — and others — could abandon him in 2024. If Trump beats Biden by 100,000 or so votes cast in a few swing states in 2024, like he beat Clinton in 2016, it could be blamed on about 1,000 different things he did. But this would be one at the top of the list. If it is another thing that makes young voters especially feel like Biden's moral compass is off. With Trump, at least we don't have to worry about it. He has no moral compass. ☹️ If Trump beats

I agree. This time, I'll be brief. There is a sort of moral certainty, one could even say moral superiority, in saying that these people are like Nazis. And we simply have to wipe the vermin out. And the guy who is talking in that interview I posted above ran Israeli intelligence, and knows way more than you and I about practical methods for wiping out vermin. He's very good at it, and rational in his plans for the eradication he supports. He clearly believes what he says. And the moral justification of it. Therein lies the tragedy. As you said, it is a noble undertaking. But impossible. And it will lead to even more extremes.

Is this the right GIF for, "We fucked ourselves"? ☹️ I stand by that question. It's a good question. What the fuck were we supposed to do in response to brutal and unprovoked terrorism that killed thousands of Americans? So I'll turn it around. What the fuck was the US supposed to do? Say, please, come fly more airplanes into our skyscrapers to punish us for being imperialist pigs? Should we have said, "We deserve to die, because we are hopeless murderous mother fuckers. Please, kill us." Is that the right response? Should Israel say, "You stupid assholes. You did not behead and burn enough of our babies. We are all genocidal monsters, and our babies all deserve to die. Come finish the job, quickly!" I cited a poll above that said after 9/11 most of the world thought the US should have pursued legal mechanisms rather than military ones. So that is one obvious answer of what we could have done instead. That said, how would taking the Taliban or bin Laden to court have worked out? Not very well, I'm guessing. Another answer is a different version of a military response. We should have invaded, overthrown the Taliban, and left. The good news is it would have taught the terrorists a lesson, and got the US military and our allies out of a mess that instead lasted for decades. The bad news is an invasion probably still would have created a mess that lasted for decades. Whether it would have been a worse mess than the mess the Taliban had already created is a question that can't honestly be answered. That certainly makes more sense with 20/20 hindsight. There's two big differences that I think put the US in a better position globally after 9/11 than Israel is now. Other than the obvious thing, which is the US's overwhelming military might. Of course, Israel has overwhelming military might, too. First, it was hard to argue the US somehow did something to provoke 9/11. Yes, we will always have Paris, and US imperialism. But we didn't occupy Afghanistan. The argument that was made at the time was that our benefactors actually turned on us. It's not like we had spent decades turning Kabul into an "open air prison," like Gaza is referred to. Second, while the immediate goal was to get rid of The Taliban, which we did (for a while), the broader goal was to national build. Which, with hindsight, now looks like the biggest mistake. But that's likely why public support lasted as long as it did. The main priority of the US wasn't to blow the shit out of lots of buildings and people in Kabul in order to take out terrorists. We spent a huge amount of money to develop Afghanistan. There are still many people who think we abandoned women and girls to the Taliban when we left. Meanwhile, nobody is arguing that Israel somehow protects Palestinian women and girls from Hamas, or any other Palestinian organization. I'm not stating either point to defend what what the US did, or how we did it. I am stating them to underline how we underestimated how difficult it was going to be. And, yes, it's easy to argue in retrospect that Afghan History For Dummies was all anyone needed to read. I personally don't regret that we invaded, even with the benefit of hindsight. If we had a do-over, I would support a short-term invasion to topple the Taliban, drive al Queda into the hills, and then get the fuck out. Then watch them like a hawk to try to prevent them from regrouping and doing it again. Which is basically the position that Israel is in. They can't get rid of Hamas, even if they do turn Gaza into a parking lot. Part of the reason I feel this way is that the idea of using legal mechanisms to bring the Taliban or al Queda to justice seems like a joke. I'm curious if anyone wants to suggest how a legal approach to 9/11 could have worked. Sue bin Laden in Afghan courts? Or, for that matter, how is Israel supposed to bring Hamas terrorists to justice in - what? Palestinian courts? Instead, to paraphrase you, @Latbear4blk, I think it makes sense to "target the terrorist leaders" with bullets. I don't regret that bin Laden was turned into fish food in an ocean. I doubt many Americans feel sorry for the guy. ‘Netanyahu Got All the Warnings,’ Says Former Head of Israeli Military Intelligence Former chief of Israeli military intelligence Amos Yadlin on where the war goes from here. I was going to post that anyway. It fits in here as one respected Israeli hawk's answer to the question, "What the fuck else are we supposed to do?" That article has a certain kind of moral clarity to it, that goes like this: Hamas = Nazism = Holocaust = They Are Evil And They Must Be Destroyed. Whatever It Takes. It's just that simple. And that's the only way it can be. Given who the guy is, and how many people he has probably ordered killed, there is a clarity to saying we really just have one priority. "We are going to destroy Hamas, as Nazi Germany was destroyed," to quote Yadlin. No worries about whether Israel did anything to provoke Hamas. Or whether what Israel is doing now may provoke terror in the future. No worries about Palestinian nation building. The point is this: we will kill a lot of Nazis, and build really good defenses. That is what matters now! And that is what we will do! I'm guessing Yadlin is right that most Israelis, as well as perhaps most Jews across the world, see things this clearly. Or this black and white, if you prefer. Netanyahu won't be replaced by a dove. Yadlin is interesting because he was a Labor candidate. And he is a self-proclaimed "dove" on supporting a political two state solution. But what he makes crystal clear is that the real priority isn't a political settlement. In fact, any political settlement just got a lot harder, he says. The real priority is to destroy Hamas. Period. Just like the Nazis were destroyed. For that reason, I can't imagine this is going to work out better for Israel than it did for the US in Afghanistan. Part of the US's "what the fuck were we supposed to do?" is we tried for a few decades to develop a political solution. In retrospect it's easy to say it was doomed to fail. In part, of course, because of all the human rights abuses that were tolerated along the way, as one article I posted above argued. In the short term it will probably help Israel - and certainly the IDF - that they have the moral clarity of feeling, "They are evil, and they must be destroyed." But the lesson of the US 9/11 is that it's not that simple. The moral clarity many people feel now will dissipate. And so it's going to lead to a lot more destruction. I hope Yadlin is right that the scope of the war can probably be contained. Which is what Biden clearly wants to do.

So a question to legal eagles out there. Kenneth Chesebro, an architect of Trump’s fake elector scheme, pleads guilty in Georgia Chesebro’s plea comes one day after another close Trump adviser, Sidney Powell, entered a plea deal. Both have agreed to cooperate with prosecutors. Is it correct that this means the legal noose is almost certainly tightening around Trump? I'm not a lawyer or judge. But it seems like if Chesebro and Powell are guilty, and if they are presumably willing to cooperate with prosecutors, it is going to be hard to find Trump innocent. The main argument I can think of is that he didn't know about it. Or that it doesn't matter, because he has immunity, anyway. But both of those seem unlikely. The idea that he is simply innocent because nothing criminal happened seems to be drifting further and further away as a legal strategy.

I'm going to keep posting thoughtful and verbose content on the subject that I think connects lots of dots. Speaking of which: The Rise and Fall of Suicide Bombings in the Second Intifada Yoram Schweitzer Schweitzer headed the IDF's international counter-terrorism unit in the 90's and has been an expert on the subject ever since. The period this paper covers focuses on the period during 2001-2003 when suicide bombing terrorism spiked. Which former PM and Jerusalem Mayor Olmert spoke about above. There are in fact always choices. Many, many choices. I quoted Olmert because I generally agree that the choices made at the time were smart, and limited in scope. They prioritized defense - like walls - and avoided killing women and children. Arguably, that is why they were mostly viewed as successful in putting down a few years of suicide bombing escalation. The whole essay is great. And I think even-handed and objective in exploring the motivation of terrorists and youth, and how that fed from and reinforced the overall Palestinian public mood at the time. Here is the most significant part regarding what Schweitzer thinks worked: A few general comments relevant to the choices Netanyahu faces. And how and why he will likely fuck them up and simply provoke more terrorism and baby killing. Even back then, 30 years ago, when Oslo and peace had much more cache, Hamas and Islamic Jihad were the known bad actors. Their specific goal was to undermine the idea that peace was the solution. And instead promote the idea that armed struggle was the solution. The reason their pioneering slaughter activities did not catch on for years is that people wanted peace, and it seemed achievable. This adds substantial evidence to the idea that Hamas is way smarter than Hitler. Hitler thought he could win. But he did lose. Hamas makes Hitler look like a rookie. All the evidence suggests they know they can't win. And they haven't won. But they also know they can't lose. And they haven't lost. In fact, if you compare the Hamas of 2023 to the Hamas of 1993, Hamas is bigger and more powerful. So right out of the gate, terrorism is all about undermining peace and promoting armed struggle. Any response to terrorism that also undermines peace and promotes the idea that armed struggle is the path to victory inherently favors Hamas, and helps them grow. Which they have done, for decades. The Netanyahu Doctrine is a fundamentally pro-Hamas strategy in that it blocks peace and promotes armed struggle. For decades this has consistently helped Hamas grow and become more powerful in their capacity to wage terror and armed struggle. If Bibi Netanyahu did not exist, Hamas would have had to invent him. Without being able to predict the future, Schweitzer foreshadowed this in his conclusions: And, almost prophetically: Ya think? There are some parts of this that are just objective facts. Hamas is bigger and more powerful than they were when they pioneered suicide bombings 30 years ago. They did win political power in part because they were viewed as the bad asses that actually fought hard for Palestinian rights. They have now brought the idea of making Israel pay for its occupation to a whole new and terrifying level. 94 % of Israel feels unsafe. And a majority of them right now blame it on Netanyahu, at least according to one poll. You can say all we have to do is put this down, just like we did the suicide bombers 20 years ago. Fine. But look where that led. It would be incorrect to say Israel won the battle, but lost the war. I think the correct idea is that because the worst actors on both sides are growing in power, that means both sides are losing the war. Not to mention the rest of the world is losing the war. $100 a barrel oil, anyone? Maybe $150 if we really let the hawks loose? The definition of insanity is when you keep doing the same things that don't work again and again. What is even more depressing is that the things that make the most sense don't even make sense. Like targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders. As Schweitzer notes, the Second Intifada was set off by the targeting killing of a Palestinian activist. During the wave of suicide bombings, as Schweitzer notes in his conclusions, Israel started to target and kill Palestinian organization leaders. One can conclude, as Schweitzer does, that it was one tool in the counter-terrorism tool box that was effective. Certainly right now I think most people would agree that the IDF should focus on killing Hamas leaders, not innocent women and children. Unfortunately, if that is the main tool in the toolbox, I think we already know what the outcome is. Not as a guess. As an objective fact. Hamas vows suicide bombings, ‘unprecedented response’ if Israel targets its leaders Terror group threatens ‘regional earthquake,’ massive rockets attacks if Sinwar, other leaders hit; Egypt reportedly mediating between Jerusalem, Gaza to prevent escalation 7 May 2022, 8:27 pm Note the date on that article. Is there any way in which anyone can argue what just happened in Israel was the least bit surprising? There's only one type of article about the terror attack I quit reading after a paragraph or two. It's the "They Are Evil And Must Be Destroyed" articles that the hawks are pushing. It includes all kinds of nasty undertones. Like if I don't think Hamas being evil and being destroyed is the only thing that matters, it means I am evil and I supported The Holocaust. Which doesn't explain why so many Jews, in the US and Israel, don't agree with the Netanyahu Doctrine, either. Nor does it explain why the hawks, if they are so smart, failed to notice this evil shit for the last half century or so. I've read article after article based on the ridiculous premise that somehow Hamas fooled Israel. And now we've just come to find out all along they were wolves in sheep's clothing. It's total and almost laughable bullshit. Perhaps it's the only way Israeli hawks can rationalize how badly they fucked up. Hamas was incredibly clear to Israel and the IDF. Fuck with our leaders and we'll burn your babies alive. Fuckers! Go ahead, fuckers! Fuck with us. Go ahead. We will kill your fucking babies. With glee. Fuck with us. Go ahead. They almost goaded Netanyahu that clearly, and bluntly. Do I support the policy of killing Hamas leaders? Yes, of course. Did I mention that I'm glad bin Laden is dead at the bottom of an ocean? But if this is all Israel can do, I think we don't even have to guess what the outcome is. We have 30 years of experience on how and why it leads to more terror, and more armed struggle. Israel and Netanyahu have lots of choices on how to respond to Hamas. If Israel continues to kill peace and promote armed struggle, the certain outcome is more terror. If Israel wants less terror, they need to make better choices and have stronger leaders than Netanyahu. I've mentioned several times I hope Arafat is burning in hell for killing peace. Now that I went into a treatise on terrorism I will add one more hypothesis. Bill Clinton has said, even to this day, he does not understand why Arafat would not take a peace deal which former PM Barak agreed to which would have left Palestinians, and I think Israelis, way better off than they are today. And probably stopped the rise of Hamas, period. Clinton must be willfully ignoring what Arafat actually said, publicly. Arafat argued that had he signed the peace deal, Hamas - or some other terror faction - would have killed him. Which might have been true. Hamas knows that the one thing that will fuck up armed struggle is peace. So maybe they would have killed Arafat. That said, it still makes Arafat a moral worm of a leader who failed his people, miserably. Rabin was assassinated because he fought for peace. If Arafat had been assassinated for peace, at least he would have a legacy like Rabin. And not one as a weak and failed leader of his people.

I'll post these brand new polls about delivering weapons to Israel as an addendum to the post above. I find these results encouraging. First, America is not actually that divided on these questions by party. Both Republicans and Democrats sympathize with both Israelis and Palestinians. There is enough of a debate in each party that there is plenty of room to meet in the middle. If that is what we actually want to do. (Spoiler alert: that is what Biden actually wants to do, as he just said on TV.) Here's the three poll questions I found most revealing: The first poll reinforces my belief that Israel has now lost a pro-Israel US majority. What I mean by that is NOT that we don't sympathize with Israel right after the worst terrorist attack in their history. I mean that, even in a moment like that, you don't have 50 % of Americans - let alone a huge majority - saying we should send arms to Israel. Whether it works in Israel or not, the Netanyahu Doctrine has failed in America. While all three partisan groups are internally divided, I take it as good news that a majority of Democrats and Independents tend to lean away from sending arms to Israel as the right response, and toward focusing on the humanitarian issues - both for Israel and Palestinians. Biden is, as on all things, a transitional figure. Certainly a President Sanders, and probably even a President Harris, would be prioritizing the 70 % of Democrats and 59 % of Independents who want to focus on things like humanitarian aid to Palestinians. This poll is also a particularly good example of why Biden is suffering from a sort of Goldilocks polling principle. Probably not by coincidence, the percentage of people who who approve of Biden's handling of the conflict (44 %) is exactly the same as the percentage who think our response is just right (44 %). Everyone else is split between too little or too much support for Israel. This helps explain why on most issues Biden's approval rating is low. Even though Trump and Biden have been essentially tied in the horse race polls all year. Trump clearly has a mostly unified MAGA Party behind him. But they can't agree on much else. Meanwhile, Biden has constant incoming fire from both the left and the right. This issue is a great example. As long as the economy and his health holds up, this is why Biden will win in 2024, I think. People will vote for moderation and compromise over crazy and impasse.

I thought this interview was spot on. When I first read this State Dept. bureaucrat resigned, I thought of it as political grandstanding. Which it is. But it is interesting to hear why he did what he did in his own words. Of course, we are talking about the State Dept., not the Defense Dept. So a bias toward diplomacy is probably baked into the cake. But this is a guy who has a pragmatic perspective on what it means to send US arms to countries who are far from perfect for decades - like Israel and Egypt. ‘There Are Options for Israel That Do Not Involve Killing Thousands of Civilians’ He also addresses what @Latbear4blk is saying. Not his words, but how we are essentially feeding the beast. It's an excellent point. There's no reason to think that arming a country to the teeth somehow incents them to rush toward peace. Paul raises another excellent point. Which is that people in the State Dept., among others, have a pretty good idea of who the better players and worse players are. The US knows which Israeli military units have a track record of civilian casualties, and could make decisions to arm on that basis. That said, in this instance I don't agree with Paul, for all the reasons he cities about politics. Again, spot on. Everything he is saying is pretty obvious to anyone being a realist. If Republicans ran the show right now, there would be choruses of "whatever it takes." Even though Paul is right that this is the policy that probably guarantees more Jewish babies will be beheaded and burned alive. At least we showed those fuckers! Speaking as a Democrat, there is no reason Democrats need to have a huge internal fight about Israel right now. Any more than they need to have a huge internal fight about who the 2024 nominee should be. Biden is proving in real time he is perfectly capable of handling a crisis. I thank God Trump is not in charge. Even moreso, I thank God George W . Bush is not in charge. Bush 43 is the one who has a Netanyahu-like track record of sending in the cavalry with guns blazing. But no long term plan for peace. Mostly, the reason I disagree with Paul is this is not America's decision to make. It is Israel's, which is a democracy. And for now they've chosen the terrorist trainer, Netanyahu. Who maybe now polls say they want to get rid of. Because maybe they are getting the idea that the more Netanyahu they have, the more terror they have. But this is the debate Israelis and Palestinians need to have. Meanwhile, I'm fine with Biden doing the same kneejerk thing we have done for decades that hasn't worked. Paul himself said, correctly, his views are being expressed "too soon." Whatever real opportunities for peace there are come after Netanyahu is gone. And probably after the world recoils, yet again, from what Netanyahu is about to do.

If you are talking about the various Netanyahu governments, I agree. I'll ramp up the rhetoric. Netanyahu deserves to burn in hell for eternity. Why? Because, to quote Bill Clinton, he killed peace. And Clinton, as much as any US POTUS, can say he tried as hard as he could to fight for peace in Israel. So I trust Clinton on this one. Netanyahu killed peace. I'd take it further and say Netanyahu wrecked Israel. Whatever the best hope is, it won't happen with Netanyahu in charge. For the record, I hope Arafat is burning in hell for eternity, too. I think he killed peace. Burn in hell, Yasser. I would not say the same for all Israeli governments, for all time. I give Biden credit for making a few very basic things very clear. First, Israel has the right to defend itself. Period. Second, that does not mean they can do whatever it takes. I quoted former Israeli PM Olmert above, talking about the challenge of terrorism when he was Mayor of Jerusalem. There's a word that I would say characterizes him. And it is not "soulless." My word would be "conscience." Right now the big challenge of many US mayors is too many poor immigrants. But that basically means people left some place they saw as a shithole to work and find a better life. They are not suicide bombers. So maybe NYC or Chicago needs more shelters. But it is not a bad thing that poor people see the US as a refuge. Olmert talks about how in Jerusalem on his watch Palestinian poor people wanted to blow themselves up and take Jews with them. On an almost daily basis. That is a much bigger moral and pragmatic challenge for a Mayor. Olmert says, correctly, they did smart things to deal with a challenge no Mayor wants. And what they did worked most of the time to reduce terror. And 20 years later Olmert is saying the same things as before. The only solution is peace, in the form of a two state solution. To me there is a word for that. Conscience. Biden is a moral and religious man. My personal view is that he went to Israel to hug them, and to appeal to their conscience. It was the right thing to do. Good for him. That said, Netanyahu is the leader of Israel So I ain't holding my breath for acts of conscience. What is interesting about that poll that says almost all Israelis feel insecure, and the majority feel the Netanyahu government failed them, is this question: what does it mean for Israel to defend itself? If the body count of dead Palestinians is higher than the body count of dead Israelis, does that mean they are secure? I hope Israelis really debate that question. Because I think Netanyahu wrecked their country. He has been a horrible leader, that has now reaped what he sowed. Apparently many Israelis agree. So I am hating on Israel by saying that. One reason I like Luttwak, the Jewish hard liner who is good at military strategy who I also quoted above, is that he is blunt and honest. So he says that the game is basically for Israel to grow. And they have grown. They went from a fragile state after the Nazi Holocaust to now being a sort of fortress nobody can penetrate. What used to be a potential Palestinian state is now a checkerboard of Jewish settlements. Luttwak is right, on his own terms. And at least until last month, at least half of Israelis - including most of their own recent more conservative immigrants - agreed with Luttwak. So it is a moment of conscience for Israel. If I had to bet, based on recent elections, i'd bet that the majority will say fuck these animals. They are vermin. Kill them. Whatever it takes. That is Netanyahu's legacy.

I agree with both posts. I think that one word is the key difference. Hamas intentionally terrorized and slaughtered innocent civilians in the most intentionally brutal ways. I don't think the IDF does that. For that matter, there was not that much evidence the US Army intentionally slaughtered innocents in places like Afghanistan. And the ones that did were punished. That is a key difference. I'm glad Biden went, and helped underscore that difference. One small difference he made, for what it is worth, is he forced at least a temporary delay of any invasion to force more attention to humanitarian measures for innocent Palestinians. The polls say, among Democrats, Biden is facing more pressure from people who say Israel's response is "too harsh" (25 %) than "not harsh enough" (9 %). The plurality of Democrats says Israel's response is "about right" (32 %). (Question is on page 92). Among Republicans, the plurality says Israel's response is "not harsh enough" (40 %) and only 8 % say "too harsh". Independents are almost equally split. I think it is safe to say that if Trump were POTUS Netanyahu would feel more empowered to do "whatever it takes." Biden will put more stress on the humanitarian issues that helped make Gaza and the West Bank open-air terrorist training camps in the first place. It's also a good bet that if there is an invasion that causes mass casualties among Palestinians, the balance among Americans will shift further against Netanyahu's harsh terrorist training adventures. Poll: 94% of Israelis say gov’t failing to protect them Survivors of kibbutz attack turn their ire on Netanyahu A massive security failure and antagonism toward Palestinians means many Israelis think Netanyahu has to answer for Hamas’ attack. Those poll results really surprised me, and deepened my sympathy for Israel. At least in one important regard, this may be the opposite of America's 9/11. Public support immediately rallied behind George W. Bush, and stayed there for a long time. He was the hero, or at least the protector. Not the villain. It wasn't until Trump ran in 2016 that Republicans in particular could begin to tolerate, let alone agree with Trump, that perhaps Bush did not keep us safe on 9/11. My assumption is that the most likely knee jerk response is that Israel will make all or at least some of the same mistakes the US did after 9/11. Which Biden thankfully cautioned Israel not to do, in person. Maybe they will actually listen. It's not clear yet how much of this Israeli response is that Netanyahu was not tough enough, and now we need to pave Gaza into a parking lot. And how much is a belief that Netanyahu's great achievement as a horrible leader is killing peace and turning both Gaza and the West Bank into terrorist training camps. There is no way that approach will change as long as Netanyahu is leader. So for the time being my guess is the basic trend doesn't change. Sadly.

Another part of what is going on that makes no sense is the idea that what happens in Gaza stays in Gaza. The conservative realists are at least saying that there is no way that a massive terrorist network like Hamas is going to be wiped out. Especially when the horrific environment that breeds them is actually made more horrific. It's common to refer to Gaza as an "open-air prison." After this terrorist attack, it might be more useful to think of Gaza as an "open-air terrorist training camp." If Netanyahu thinks he can stop that by turning it into a parking lot, he should consider the possibility that it will only make it worse. (See: Iraq, US invasion, rise of ISIS). A few charts from Mr. "I Love Charts." I found that helpful. Because it helps to explain why both Israel, on the one hand, and Palestinians and the Arab world, on the other, feel outraged. I won't post the other chart, since it would literally be overkill. But Forbes says that between 2008 and 2020 the death toll from the Israel-Palestinian conflict was 5,592 Palestinians versus 252 Israelis. So for Israel losing five times as many people in one day compared to how many were lost in years of an entrenched conflict has to be a huge shock. Whereas for Palestinians it's mostly just the same old same old. It's a weird thing about human empathy. I can easily understand one group feeling, "Oh my God. This is so horrible. I feel so sorry for you." And the other side feeling, "Now you know how we feel." There are plenty of reliable news reports of how dozens of entire Palestinian families have been completely wiped up by Israel's bombing in Gaza just this month. As Pandora's box is opened, there ought to also be a big debate about the West Bank. The Danger of Violent Escalation in the West Bank Note that was written in June 2023. To oversimplify, the sound advice of the author is that Israel should be doing whatever it can to defuse this situation. Invading Gaza is of course going to detonate the West Bank. The author notes the usual suspects, like Hamas, and the usual networks, including Gaza and Beirut. So I guess the least bad scenario is that rising terrorism in the West Bank is mostly because local thugs are just being local thugs. The more likely scenario is that of course the known and well organized bad players will use public sentiment in the West Bank and the Arab world to set that powder keg off, too. It won't be hard. There's a great interview with former PM Ehud Olmert, who laid out that the only solution is political: a two state solution. What he said about being Mayor of Jerusalem is worth noting: I'm sure Olmert knows way more than me about what it took to stop terrorism when he was Mayor of Jerusalem. But whatever worked then, terrorism is on the rise now. And there's every reason to think what has already been happening in the West Bank recently is about to get a hell of a lot worse, if the invasion of Gaza moves forward and goes like it is probably going to go. I'd be interested in Olmert's thoughts about how you "sometimes reduce" terrorism in a "big war." The first example that comes to mind for me is Hitler. Hitler did start a war that he couldn't win, and he did lose. And beating the Nazis did stop Nazi terror. And it was very costly. This is why I think Hamas should be thought of as evil geniuses, even compared to Hitler. It seems very clear that they want to start a war that they know they can't win. But they also know they can't lose. Even trying to make them lose would involve a regional war that inflames not only Gaza, but the West Bank. And God knows where else as well.

That's correct. You don't know about Kevin Spacey. Thanks for being honest. You are doing a good job of revealing your ignorance on the issue of his predatory behavior. Despite there being a whole thread documenting and debating it. If your point is that you don't want to comment on Kevin Spacey, but instead want to defend the right of his attorneys to try to discredit people who sought justice, go ahead. Or, if you are defending the right of all sexual predators to claim they were only doing consensual things, great. It's a fair point. They have the right to defend themselves. Now back to Spacey. As I cited repeatedly above, and you appear to be ignorant of, the people who have looked at the evidence were convinced. Spacey was fired for being a serial sexual predator. Many people came forward and told stories about his sexually predatory behavior. When he went to court and played innocent, he ended up having to pay $30 million. His career is over, because it should be. In case you missed it: Kevin Spacey must pay over $30 million to "House Of Cards" makers, judge rules Spacey's predatory behavior that led to this was well documented. It was not consensual. The individuals he preyed on did not brag about it later. They went to court. If you have any evidence to support what you are saying, about how his victims enjoyed it and bragged about it, please post it. Mostly you are acting like a bad defense attorney. You're just making shit up that you can't support at all with facts. If there is a movie about this, I will nominate you to play Kevin Spacey. You clearly have the basic idea. When lots of people come forward and accuse you of sexual harassment, the best approach is for you and your attorneys to claim you are so hot that of course they couldn't resist flirting with you. And even if no real person did actually brag about how Spacey raped or groped them, we could cast a well known actor's kid in the movie to be the guy who told jokes about being groped by Spacey. That would be worth a laugh. And if you don't want to play Spacey, you could definitely play his defense attorney. Although then, if you are really doing your job, you'd have to figure out how to discredit Richard Dreyfuss and his son. That might be a little challenging for you. Are you ready for your close up, doc? Maybe we can make up some lines about how Harry was flirting with Kevin, really. Which is exactly the kind of thing an 18 year old would do in front of his Dad, after all. 🙄

Good news, bad news. U.S. intel indicates Israel didn’t bomb Gaza hospital Since I'm the one who posted the headline, which did attribute the claim to Hamas, I'll walk it back. I think it is good news that Israel did not turn a hospital into a parking lot. And it is also good news that Biden showed up and said he has Israel's back. As opposed to saying he supports Netanyahu's policies. Bad news is it still shows what happens when you open Pandora's Box. And I get that if we are going to blame someone for starting it, that goes to Hamas. But this is exactly what people have been saying so far through this thread. A lot of innocent people are going to die. And even a right-winger like Luttwak admits that taking out Hamas leadership through an invasion is a completely unrealistic goal.

They are already paving the parking lot, sadly. Hundreds killed in Israeli airstrike on hospital, Hamas-run health ministry says If confirmed, the attack would be by far the deadliest Israeli airstrike in five wars fought since 2008. I'm guessing it was a terror attack from Iran, killing innocent Palestinians? Certainly it could not have been Israel, since they are always and only the victim. Since Israel wants the world to think of this as their 9/11, I think it is instructive to reflect on some of what happened after the US 9/11. How US-Funded Abuses Led to Failure in Afghanistan As one of the 88 % of Americans who supported an invasion of Afghanistan, I get it. What the fuck else were we supposed to do? But this is the diagnosis for Israel, too. The point is that this is not the least worst solution. It is more like the worst solution. And it is what Israel is setting itself up for. We can not possibly know what horrors will flow out of Pandora's box. But anybody wise at least knows this is opening Pandora's box. At least the US (and women and children in Afghanistan who were victims of The Taliban) got to enjoy a period of "liberation" before the human rights shit show started. We didn't start the military campaign by turning a hospital full of innocent and wounded people into a parking lot. Being against the Iraq War was very unpopular when it started. I know I am equally in the minority in thinking it was an act of moral courage for Joe Biden to finally pull the plug on the failed debacle in Afghanistan. Which, by the way, was set up WITH THE TALIBAN when Trump was POTUS. People want to focus on the dozens of military killed by terrorists at the airport, and blame that on Biden. Fair enough. Had Obama listened to Biden and pulled the plug at the start of Obama's Presidency, instead of trying a surge, it would have prevented the vast majority of the 2,465 US military who died in Afghanistan. Not to mention the deaths of allies and very large numbers of innocents due to human rights abuses. Two different wars. Call me an American, but I believe the US invasion of Afghanistan after our 9/11 was actually much more morally justified. I do think our intentions were good, and our military was honorable. The simple and profound moral similarity is that you shouldn't start a war you can't win, and that will only lead to more terrorism and more human rights tragedies. I hope that is what Biden tells Netanyahu and his war allies, privately.

Holy shit, Batman. Is this even possible? Why a Gaza Invasion and ‘Once and for All’ Thinking Are Wrong for Israel by Thomas Friedman I have to admit I have really mixed feelings about Friedman's article. On the one hand, Friedman is spot on. He succinctly stated all the best reasons this is probably going to be a disaster for Israel, and US global interests. Especially if it's based on the Netanyahu Doctrine, which is basically "whatever it takes." On the other hand, Friedman is my go to guy for being wrong about pretty much everything that really matters. He was wrong in advocating for the Iraq War. He was wrong about "the world is flat." He missed that whole thing about the revolt against globalization. Which led to, among other things, the rise of MAGA and Trump. He was wrong about how if we could just bubble wrap seniors for a year or two COVID wasn't gonna be such a big deal. So Friedman being against Israel invading Gaza is actually the first thing I've read that makes me think maybe an invasion actually makes sense. 🙄 On balance, I'd say maybe Friedman is like the broken clock that is at least right twice a day. Luttwak at least acknowledges that taking Hamas out is impossible. Building on that, Friedman is right that any war plan premised on invading to take Hamas out is going to be a disaster. Too many tunnels. Too much time. His argument for "more surgical means to eliminate or capture Hamas's leadership" is an argument made right on time. Even if his clock is still broken. 😉

Agreed. Just to be clear, when I cited the Powell Doctrine I'm not advocating a ground offensive. But it sounds like IDF has 300,000+ reservists on top of their regular forces getting ready to go in. A bunch of them are probably going to die. My point with the Powell Doctrine is the least bad outcome if they are going to go in is that they define achievable objectives and then get out. If they instead think they are actually going to obliterate Hamas, which is what the hawks are all screaming for, we're probably going to all learn that finding terrorists in tunnels is as easy as finding terrorists in caves. My guess based on everything we know about Netanyahu is that he will plan to stay permanently with the intention of turning Gaza into a parking lot. It seems to me like this comes right out of the bin Laden playbook. Yeah, bin Laden got taken out eventually. But it took the better part of a decade. Good luck, Netanyahu. I'm being broken record about "the action is in the reaction." But a favorite line from the civil rights movement is that if MLK didn't have Bull Connor, he would have had to invent him. It's a weird idea, I know. But a true one. Images of a racist Southern bigot cop attacking innocent Black people with dogs just because they wanted to vote helped MLK. And MLK knew it, and methodically planned on it. I've always thought the equivalent was this: if bin Laden did not have George W. Bush, he would have had to invent him. When I say that, I am specifically talking about the Iraq War, not Afghanistan. There were theories that bin Laden's end game was to let the US be the bad guy and use the reaction to whip up revolution in the Middle East. Some version of that played out. It didn't help keep bin Laden from being dead at the bottom of an ocean. But it birthed ISIS. Part of my point is that we have no idea what horrors will emerge years from now after Hamas and Netanyahu conspire to open Pandora's box. But it was not hard to predict that the Iraq War would open Pandora's box and measurably weaken the US's stature in the world. It did. Another reason I dredge up bin Laden is that Afghanistan was the war I and most Americans supported. And yet even that ended badly. In part because Bush 43 forgot or ignored what Bush 41 and Powell taught us about effective military campaigns. The idea that we could occupy Afghanistan for decades and turn it into something completely different sounded good at the time to many. It doesn't look so smart in retrospect. In my eyes, Hamas looks like the true evil genius, compared to blundering bin Laden. Bin Laden never ruled Afghanistan. His fallback was always a cave or a safe house in Pakistan. Hamas actually rules Gaza. It's perfectly fine to say they promised to turn it into the Hong Kong of the Middle East, and they didn't do that. But it completely misses the point. They now have Gaza set up to spend years blowing up Israeli soldiers. Or using them for target practice with snipers. And they will. Meanwhile, Hamas leaders will be hiding and living in tunnels while the UN deplores the horrific conditions in the parking lot Gaza is being turned into. Whatever the polls say today, they won't get more favorable to Israel if that is what happens. I'm pretty sure that is exactly what Hamas is planning on, just like bin Laden did. To underscore the point, I'll cite a particularly interesting Israeli hawk, who has written widely respected books on military strategy and actually killed enemies fighting in Israeli wars, Edward Lutwak. The whole long essay is thoughtful, but here's the part most relevant: The last line is probably the most important one. This at least suggests some achievable objectives that don't sound like "kill Palestinian women and kids and pave them into the parking lot." But Lutwak is a realist who acknowledges that Hamas is as dug in as they can be. Another point he makes in that essay is that Israel will quickly revert to having 30 guards at every checkpoint, rather than one or two who are easy to take out. That will help. The scariest thing he says, in my mind, is in a different essay: That's all well and good. Part of me is proud of Israel, in the way I am proud that 88 % of Americans said after 9/11, to be blunt, "We have to take these fuckers out." I'm not complaining that bin Laden is dead at the bottom of an ocean. But it still doesn't change the fact that Israel is opening Pandora's box, just like the US did. It's fine for Israel to be unified around the idea that "Hamas has to be destroyed," just like the US was about bin Laden after 9/11. But Lutwak is sober enough to state "there are no guarantess that any lasting result will be achieved." Ya think? And that's coming from a hard core hawk who pretty much has the worst possible view of Arab and Palestinian leaders. Wait til the UN and the EU chime in. I think Hamas is the evil genius who is counting on the fact that no lasting result will be achieved. Good luck, Netanyahu. You might want to consult with George W. Bush. Unity is awesome. But this may not turn out as planned.

That's actually part of the tragedy. I feel as bad for the families of hundreds of dead IDF soldiers killed by Hamas as I do for the women and children killed. Of course, I think a bunch of the IDF soldiers killed by Hamas were women. I read somewhere that a lot of female soldiers guarding checkpoints were among the first taken out by Hamas. Authorities name 291 soldiers, 51 police officers killed in 2023 terror clashes Col. (res.) Lion Bar, 53, a senior officer in the Judea and Samaria Division, from Gedera. Lt. Col. Sahar Machluf, 36, the commander of the 481st Signal Battalion, from Modiin. Lt. Col. Yonatan Tzur, 33, the commander of the Nahal Reconnaissance Battalion, from Kedumim. Commander (Navy equivalent of Lt. Col.) Eli Ginsburg, 42, a Shayetet 13 officer, from Dovrat. Lt. Col. Alim Abdullah, 40, the deputy commander of the 300th “Baram” Regional Brigade, from Yanuh-Jat. Maj. (res.) Noy Shush, 36, a local security officer, from Be’eri. Maj. (res.) Uri Shimon Russo, 44, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Maj. Benjamin (Benji) Tarkinsky, 32, head of operations in the 7th Armored Brigade. Maj. Chen Buchris, 26, the deputy commander of Maglan, from Ashdod. Maj. Amir Skuri, 31, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Maj. Ariel Ben Moshe, 27, a Sayeret Matkal commander. Maj. Avraham Hovlashvili, 26, an officer in Carcal, from Ashdod. Maj. Ido Yehoshua, 27, an Israeli Air Force instructor. Maj. (res.) Omri Michaeli, 35, a Duvdevan soldier, from Nes Tziona. Maj. Peleg Salem, 30, a logistics officer, from Netanya. Maj. Ido Yisrael Shani, 29, the deputy commander of the Nahal reconnaissance unit, from Ramat Gan. Maj. (res.) Ram Negbi, 57, a local security officer, from Ein Hashlosha. Maj. Roi Chapel, 25, a Nahal commander, from Zichron Yaakov. Maj. Tal Cohen, 30, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Ganei Tal. Maj. Mordecai Shamir, 29, an officer in the Infantry Corps, from Yakir. Maj. (res.) Eitan Menachem Naeman, 44, a combat medic in the 551st Brigade, from Tene. Maj. Uriel Bibi, 30, a Paratrooper officer, from Shlomit. Maj. Ilay Zisser, 27, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Givat Olga. Maj. Ido Huvra, 37, a soldier in the 401st Armored Brigade, from Sufa. Cpt. (res.) Adi Bahrav Rabinovich, 62, a local security officer, from Netiv Ha’asara. Cpt. (res.) Yaakov Nadlin, 36, a combat soldier in the Samaria Brigade from Or Akiva. Cpt. (res.) Elhanan Meir Klemenzon, 41, an officer in the Judea and Samaria Division, from Otniel. Cpt. Adir Ovadi, 23, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Modiin. Cpt. Sagi Golan, 30, a Lotar commander, from Raanana. Cpt. Yotam Ben Bassat, 24, a commander in the Multidomain Unit, from Bat Hefer. Cpt. Arye Shlomo Ziering, 27, an Oketz officer, from Raanana. Cpt. Tal Grushka, 25, a Nahal officer, from Kfar Saba. Cpt. (res) Roi Nagri, 28, a Lotar unit commander, from Tel Aviv. Cpt. (res.) Meir David Haim, 31, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpt. Raz Peretz, 24, a Golani commander, from Afula. Cpt. Hadar Kama, 24, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Givat Shapira. Cpt. Ben Bronstein, 24, a Duvdevan soldier, from Holon. Cpt. (res.) Yuval Halibani, 30, a soldier in the 551st Brigade, from Ramat Gan. Cpt. Shilo Har-Even, 25, a Golani soldier, from Almon. Cpt. (res.) Amir Naim, 27, a Combat Engineering officer, from Erez. Cpt. (res.) Avraham Hananel Hindi, 37, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Cpt. Guy Admoni, 25, an intelligence officer, from Kfar Aza. Lt. Dor Sade, 22, a Givati soldier, from Arugot. Lt. Or Moses, 22, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Ashdod. Lt. Yiftah Yaabetz, 23, a commander in Maglan, from Ramat Hasharon. Lt. Menashe Yoav Maliev, 19, an officer in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Kiryat Ono. Lt. Amitay Zvi Granot, 24, a commander in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Tel Aviv. Lt. Or Yosef Ran, 29, a commander in Duvdevan, from Itamar. Lt. (res.) Ido Edri, 24, an infantry officer, from Givaton. Lt. Shilo Cohen, 24, a Shaldag soldier, from Sderot. Lt. Shoham Tomer, 23, a Nahal officer, from Srigim. Lt. Itay Maor, 23, a Golani officer, from Rosh Haayin. Lt. Rom Shlomi, 23, a Shalgad officer, from Ganot. Lt. Itay Cohen, 22, a Yahalom commander, from Rehovot. Lt. Nitai Omer, a Combat Engineering officer 22, from Alumim. Lt. Alina Pravosudova, 23, a Home Front Command officer, from Haifa. Lt. Eden Nimri, 22, a commander in the Artillery Corps’ drone unit. Lt. Dekel Suisa, 21, a Golani commander, from Bar Giora. Lt. Ori Mordecai Shany, 22, a Golani commander, from Kiryat Arba. Lt. Ron Tsarfati, 22, an officer in the Air Force’s air traffic control unit, from Hadera. Lt. Sahar Saudin, 21, an instructor in the air defense array, from Rosh Haayin. Lt. Eyal Klein, 22, a Nahal soldier, from Kfar Harif. Lt. Amir Tzur, 23, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Lt. Ilay Adani, 21, a Maglan soldier, from Tel Mond. Lt. Shilo Rochberger, 23, a Golani commander, from Eli. Lt. Idan Baloy, 21, a Golani signals officer, from Rishon Lezion. Lt. Shir Eilat, 20, a Unit 414 commander, from Kfar Shmuel. Lt. Roi Nahari, 23, a Paratroopers officer, from Ora. Lt. Omer Wolf, 22, a Golani commander, from Givat Haim. 2nd Lt. Adar Ben Simon, 20, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Neve Ziv. 2nd Lt. Yanai Kaminka, 20, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Tzur Hadassah. 2nd Lt. Yonatan Guttin, 20, a signals officer in the Multidomain Unit, from Modiin. 2nd Lt. Yuval Yafe, 21, an officer in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Tzofit. 2nd Lt. Yohai Duchan, 26, a Golani commander, from Kiryat Arba. 2nd Lt. Sahar Tal, 20, an intelligence officer in the 7th Armored Brigade, fro Tzora. Warrant Officer Ido Rosenthal, 45, a Shaldag soldier, from Beit Shean. Warrant Officer (res.) Avraham Fleischer, 63, a local security officer, from Magen. Warrant Officer (res.) Gil Boyum, 55, a local security officer, from Be’eri. First Sgt. (res.) Yiftah Gurni, 51, a local security officer, from Be’er Milka. First Sgt. (res.) Abraham Gabriel Korin, 56, a local security officer, from Holit. First Sgt. Ibrahim Kharuba, 39, a tracker in the Gaza Division, from Maghar. First Sgt. Aharon Farash, 36, a logistics NCO, from Ofakim First Sgt. Salman Ibn Marai, 41, a tracker in the Gaza Divison, from Segev Shalom. First Sgt. (res.) Reuven Shishportish, 36, a local security officer, from Shlomit. First Sgt. (res.) Ilan Fiorentino, 38, a local security officer, from Nahal Oz. First Sgt. (res.) Aviad Gad Cohen, 41, a soldier in the Etzioni Brigade, from Shlomit. First Sgt. Gil Avital, 56, a local security officer, from Yesha. Master Sgt. (res.) Shachar Aviani, 56, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Master Sgt. (res.) Aviv Baram, 33, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Master Sgt. (res.) Tal Maman, 38, a local security officer, from Mivtahim. Master Sgt. (res.) Lior Ben Yaakov, 44, a local security officer, from Yesha. Master Sgt. (res.) Yuval Gabai, 35, a commander in the Border Defense Corps. Master Sgt. (res.) Israel Amichai Witzen, 33, a local security officer, from Kerem Shalom. Master Sgt. (res.) Yaron Victor Shahar, 51, a local security officer, from Nir Yitzhak. Master Sgt. (res.) Behor Sweid, 32, a local security officer, from Shlomit. Master Sgt. (res.) Liran Mons Almosnino, 42, a soldier in the Paran Regional Brigade, from Kmehin. Master Sgt. (res.) Noam Slotaki, 31, a combat medic in the Carmeli Brigade, from Jerusalem. Master Sgt. (res.) Saar Margolis, 37, a local security officer, from Kissufim. Master Sgt. (res.) Shachar Tzemach, 39, a local security officer from Be’eri. Master Sgt. (res.) Dan Asulin, 38, a local security officer, from Mivtahim. Master Sgt. (res.) Shachaf Bergstein, 33, a local security officer, from Kfar Aza. Sgt. First Class (res.) Haim Yeshurun Katzman, 32, head of a local security team, from Holit. Sgt. First Class Amir Fisher, 22, a Duvdevan soldier, from Tel Aviv. Sgt. First Class Vitaly Shipkevich, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Ariel. Sgt. First Class (res.) Tomer Dolev. 34, a Home Front Command soldier, from Ashkelon. Sgt. First Class Imri Belkin, 25, a Lotar instructor, from Ramat Hasharon. Sgt. First Class Yosef Malachi Guedalia, 22, a Duvdevan soldier, from Jerusalem. Sgt. First Class Jawad Amar, 23, commander of firing zone 150, from Hurfeish. Sgt. First Class Gilad Molcho, 33, an Egoz soldier, from Tel Aviv. Sgt. First Class (res.) Avichai Amsalem, 30, a soldier in the 551st Brigade, from Hadera. Sgt. First Class (res.) Yedidya Moshe Raziel, 31, a local security officer, from Kerem Shalom. Sgt. First Class Adam Agmon, 21, a commander at the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders, from Kamon. Sgt. First Class (res.) Itay Shlomo Morenu, 24, a Maglan soldier, from Aderet. Sgt. First Class Yishai Slotaki, 24, a soldier in the Oded Brigade, from Beersheba. Sgt. First Class (res.) Daniel Kastiel, 24, a Maglan soldier, from Bet Shemesh. Staff Sgt. Itay Avraham Ron, 20, a Golani soldier, from Nes Tziona. Staff Sgt. Daniel Bezgodov, 22, a Nahal soldier, from Afula. Staff Sgt. Itamar Ben Yehuda, 21, a Golani commander, from Rehovot. Staff Sgt. Ofek Arbiv, 21, a Paratrooper, from Bat Yam. Staff Sgt. (res.) Matanya Elster, 22, a soldier in the Carmeli Brigade, from Sde Ilan. Staff Sgt. Neta Bar Am, 21, a Unit 414 soldier, from Hadera. Staff Sgt. Ofir Tzioni, 21, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Yokne’am Illit. Staff Sgt. Omri Niv Feirstein, 20, a Home Front Command soldier, from Givatayim. Staff Sgt. Yuval Ben Yaakov, 21, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Kfar Menahem. Staff Sgt. Aner Elkim Shapira, 22, a Nahal soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. (res.) Ofek Arazi, 28, a local security officer, from Nir Yitzhak. Staff Sgt. (res.) Omer Nissim Bitan, 22, a soldier in the 5th Brigade, from Binyamina Staff Sgt. Shlomo Rashtnikov, 20, a Golani soldier, from Haifa. Staff Sgt. Ido Harush, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Mitspe Ramon. Staff Sgt. Roi Weiser, 21, a Golani soldier, from Efrat. Staff Sgt. Adir Gauri, 20, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Guy Simchi, 20, a Paratrooper, from Gedera. Staff Sgt. Or Mizrahi, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Petah Tikva. Staff Sgt. Ilay Gamzu, 20, a Paratrooper, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. Ohad Cohen, 20, a Shaldag soldier, from Idan. Staff Sgt. Orel Moshe, 21, a Golani soldier, from Rechasim. Staff Sgt. Yosef Itamar Beruchim, 20, a paratrooper, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. Tshager Taka, 21, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Nave Eliezer Lex, 21, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Lod. Staff Sgt. Alexander Masli, 21, a Combat Engineering technician, from Afula. Staff Sgt. Tal Levi, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Moshe Danino, 21, a Golani soldier, from Haifa. Staff Sgt. Yaad Ben Yaakov, 20, a Golani soldier, from Petah Tikva. Staff Sgt. Max Ravinov, 21, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. David Retner, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ashdod. Staff Sgt. Jonathan Golan, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Yehud. Staff Sgt Yogev Aharon, 20, a Golani soldier from Pardes Hana. Staff Sgt. Amit Peled, 21, an Egoz unit soldier, from Haifa. Staff Sgt. Adi Tzur, 20, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Staff Sgt. Michael Ben Hamo, 21, a Golani soldier, from Rehovot. Staff Sgt. Elad Michael Shushan, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Motza Illit. Staff Sgt. Yonatan Savitsky, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Modiin. Staff Sgt. Roi Bareket, 20, a Golani soldier, from Modiin. Staff Sgt. Dolev Amouyal, 21, a Golani soldier, from Netanya. Staff Sgt. Dvir Zakai, 20, a Golani soldier, from Tiberias. Staff Sgt. Tomer Yaakov Mizrahi, 21, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Hoshaya. Staff Sgt. Aviel Malkamo, 21, an Egoz soldier, from Kiryat Ata. Staff Sgt. David Yerhi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Rishon Lezion. Staff Sgt. Ofek Russo, 21, a Shayetet 13 soldier, from Kadima Zoran. Staff Sgt. Daniel Kasavchuk, 21, a technician in the air defense array. Staff Sgt. Shoham Bar, 21, a logistics NCO in Golani, from Ahuzat Barak. Staff Sgt. Yishai Fitoussi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Talmon. Staff Sgt. Dor Lazimi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Kfar Tavor. Staff Sgt. Nadav Biton, 20, a Kfir soldier, from Ofakim. Staff Sgt. Nehorai Levi Amitai, 20, a Golani commander, from Rinatya. Sgt. Yam Goldstein Almog, 20, a commander in the Computer Service Directorate, from Kfar Aza. Sgt. Ofir Shoshani, 20, a commander at the Mifrasit Base, from Kfar Aza. Sgt. Daniel Rashed, 19, a Golani soldier, from Shefa-‘Amr Sgt. Adi Landman, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Yokne’am Illit. Sgt. Imri Peretz, 20, a commander at the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders, from Elyakhin. Sgt. Roi Haim Guri, 21, a Golani soldier, from Ofakim. Sgt. (res.) Adi Odaya Baruch, 22, a soldier in the Judea Regional Brigade, from Kiryat Netafim. Sgt. Or Mizrahi, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ramat Gan. Sgt. Benjamin Blai, 20, a driver in the Gaza Division, from Rehovot. Sgt. Maoro Alam, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ashkelon. Sgt. Adir Ishto Bogla, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ariel. Sgt. Gali Roi Shakotai, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Tzofar. Sgt. Yarin Ma’ari Peled, 20, a medic in the Gaza Division, from Be’eri. Sgt. Neria Ben David, 22, a Combat Engineering commander, from Haifa. Sgt. Or Asto, 21, a logistics NCO in Golani, from Beersheba. Sgt. Ofek Rosental, 20, a Maglan soldier, from Kfar Menahem. Sgt. Eden Alon Levi, 19, a commander in the Home Front Command, from Nirit. Sgt. Itay-El Marciano, 20, a Paratrooper, from Shoham. Sgt. Ben Rubenstein, 20, a Lotar unit instructor, from Hod Hasharon. Sgt. Yaron Uri Shay, 21, a Nahal soldier, from Kadima Zoran. Sgt. Rotem Dushi, 20, a Paratrooper, from Shimshit. Sgt. Or Malka, 21, a COGAT soldier, from Acre. Sgt. Yakir Levi, 21, a Golani soldier, from Moreshet. Sgt. Benjamin Loeb, 23, a Paratrooper, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Amichay Yaakov Vaninu, 22, a Maglan commander, from Katzrin. Sgt. Itay Nahmias, 20, a Multidomain Unit soldier, from Yesha. Sgt. Tomer Barak, 20, a Golani soldier, from Petah Tikva. Sgt. Evyatar Ohayon, 22, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Noam Elimelech Rotenburg, 24, a soldier at the Training Command, from Beersheba. Sgt. Brando David Flores Garcia, 21, a driver in the Gaza Division, from Beersheba. Sgt. Amit Mosat, 20, a Golani soldier, from Modiin. Sgt. Sahar Midani, 20, a Golani soldier, from Kiryat Ekron. Sgt. Avraham Neria Cohen, 20, a soldier in the Gaza Division, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Bar Rosenstein, 20, a Golani soldier, from Rishon Letzion. Sgt. Nehorai Saeed, 21, a Kfir soldier, from Ofakim. Sgt. Ofir Melman, 21, a Sayeret Matkal soldier, from Nir Yitzhak. Sgt. Regev Amar, 20, a Paratrooper, from Sde Nehemia. Sgt. Aviad Rivlin, 23, a soldier in the Technological and Logistics Directorate, from Otniel. Sgt. Eliasf Ben Porat, 21, a cook in the 282nd Artillery Regiment, from Safed. Sgt. Naor Siboni, 20, a Golani soldier, from Gilat. Sgt. Daniel Shaferber, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Yehud. Sgt. Shimon Elroy Ben Shitrit, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Beit Shean. Sgt. Noa Price, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Mevoim. Sgt. Valentin (Eli) Gancia, 22, a Paratrooper, from Jerusalem. Sgt. Barak Ben David, 19, a Golani soldier, from Dimona. Sgt. Itay Ofek Glisko, 20, a Golani soldier, from Yokne’am Illit. Sgt. Dvir Chaim Ressler, 21, a Golani soldier, from Kedumim. Sgt. Shahaf Nisani, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ashkelon. Sgt. Ori Carmi, 20, a Golani soldier, from Rishon Lezion. Cpl. Kamay Achiel, 18, a Snapir sailor in the 914th Patrol Squadron, from Rosh Haayin. Cpl. Tomer Leibovitz, 19, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Tel Aviv. Cpl. Rotem Kutz, 18, a commander in the Computer Service Directorate, from Kfar Aza. Cpl. Osher Simcha Barzilai, 19, a soldier in the Gaza Division, from Mazkeret Batya. Cpl. Nahman Dekel, 20, a Nahal soldier, from Holon. Cpl. Yotam Hallel, 19, a Nahal soldier, from Bareket. Cpl. Shoham Shlomo Nidam, 19, a technician in Golani, from Kiryat Shmona Cpl. Boaz Menashe Yogev, 19, a technician in the Gaza Division, from Talmon. Cpl. Amir Eyal, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Haifa. Cpl. Habib Keyan, 21, a Golan soldier, from Hura. Cpl. Yael Leibushor, 20, a Unit 414 soldier, from Ge’a. Cpl. Nativ Kutzro, 21, a technician in the air defense array. Cpl. Dvir Lisha, 21, a Golani soldier, from Nitzan. Cpl. Guy Bazak, 19, a Golani soldier, from Givatayim. Cpl. Netanel Young, 20, a Golani soldier from Tel Aviv. Cpl. Adi Gurman, 19, a Unit 414 soldier. Cpl. Ariel Eliyahu, 19, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Mitspe Yeriho. Cpl. Danit Cohen, 19, a soldier in the IDF Southern Command, from Sderot. Cpl. Amit Guetta, 21, a Maglan soldier, from Rehovot. Cpl. Itamar Ayish, 19, a Home Front Command soldier, from Kiryat Gat. Cpl. Ori Looker, 19, a Golani soldier, from Pardes Hana-Karkur. Cpl. Yaron Zahar, 19, a Golani soldier, from Kiryat Ata. Cpl. Adir Tahar, 19, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Amit Tzur, 19, a Golani soldier, from Elyachin. Cpl. Ilay Bar Sadeh, 19, a Golani soldier, from Ramat Gan. Cpl. Idan Raz, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ein HaMifratz. Cpl. Lior Azizov, 20, a Golani soldier, from Kfar Silver. Cpl. Roi Peri, 19, a Golani soldier, from Shoham. Cpl. Shir Biton, 19, a medic in the Gaza Division, from Ashdod. Cpl. Osher Shmia, 19, a soldier in the Gaza Division, from Beersheba. Cpl. Shir Shlomo, 19, a Home Front Command soldier, from Netanya. Cpl. Ofir Testa, 21, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Ariel Ohana, 19, a Paratrooper, from Revadim. Cpl. Hallel Shmuel Saadan, a Nahal soldier, from Barkai. Cpl. Erez Ariel, 19, a Golani soldier, from Amka. Cpl. Sivan Simcha Asraf, 20, a signals soldier, from Ashkelon. Cpl. Ram Meir Batito, 19, a Golani soldier, from Netanya. Cpl. Amir Lavi, 19, a Nahal soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Uriel Segal, 19, a Golani soldier, from Petah Tikva. Cpl. Shay Ashram, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Rehovot. Cpl. Bar Yankelov, 19, a Paratrooper, from Karmiel. Cpl. Tomer Nagar, 20, a Golani soldier, from Jerusalem. Cpl. Lavi Bouchnik, 20, a Paratrooper, from Peduim. Cpl. Natan Chai Lior, 20, a Kfir soldier, from Netanya. Cpl. Shalev Baranes, 20, a Golani soldier, from Kfar Baruch. Cpl. Ido Binenstock, 19, a Golani soldier, from Ramat Gan. Cpl. Itamar Cohen, 19, a Golani soldier, from Carmiel. Cpl. Emil Smoylov, 22, a guard in COGAT, from Haifa. Cpl. Amichai Shimon Rubin, 23, a Golani soldier, from Acre. Cpl. David Mittelman, 20, a Golani soldier, from Rosh Tzurim. Cpl. Shirel Mor, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Raanana. Cpl. Ilay Ben Mucha, 20, a Golani soldier, from Ashdod. Cpl. Aviv Hajaj, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Galit. Cpl. Karin Schwartzman, 20, an Air Force technician, from Holon. Cpl. Shimon Lugasi, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Acre. Cpl. Benjamin Gavriel Yona, 19, a driver in the air defense array. Cpl. Or Avital, 20, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade. Cpl. Matan Malka, 19, a Paratrooper from Gesher Haziv. Cpl. Matan Abarjil, 19, a Golani soldier, from Hermesh. Cpl. Ofir Yeruhin, 19, a Golani soldier, from Givat Shmuel. Pvt. Maya Vialovo Polo, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Givatayim. Pvt. Yonatan Elazari, 19, a Paratrooper, from Alon Shvut. Pvt. Ilay Azar, 18, a soldier in the Gaza Divison, from Shefayim. Pvt. Neria Aharon Nagiri, 18, a Home Front Command soldier, from Talmon. Pvt. Naama Buni, 19, a soldier in the 7th Armored Brigade. Pvt. Ofir Davidian, 18, a logistics soldier in the Home Front Command, from Patish. Pvt. Lior Levy, 19, a soldier in the Home Front Command, from Dimona. Pvt. Noam Abramovitz, 19, a Unit 414 soldier, from Givat Brener. Pvt. Shirat Yam Amer, 18, a Unit 414 soldier, from Kiryat Ono. Pvt. Lirod Makayes, 19, a COGAT soldier, from Ofakim. Pvt. Hadar Miryam Cohen, 18, a Unit 414 soldier, from Zeitan. Pvt. Idan Baruch, 20, a soldier in the Education Corps. An updated list of the slain soldiers and further details can be found at the following [Hebrew] link. And then there are the IDF soldiers who were prisoners in Gaza bombed by Israel I'm a huge fan of the Powell Doctrine. Have a defined and achievable military objective. Get in. And get out. Keep soldiers who are serving us alive. That is why Gulf War I (Bush 41/Powell) worked well, and kept soldiers alive. And Gulf War II (Bush 43/Cheney) didn't. I have no idea how you do the Powell Doctrine in a situation like Gaza. I strongly suspect Hamas, evil but not stupid, knew this when they planned the attack.

You and I of course view polls differently. But in this case I would say there's a very long term trend established. And you don't need polls to understand it. Bill Clinton wrote one of the best essays I've read about what changed Israel. Two of the main factors he identified were immigration and demographics. Meaning the increasing percentage, both through immigration and birth rates, of religious conservatives who are like a US version of MAGA. Bill Clinton: Netanyahu killed the peace process I could not find the longer Bill Clinton essay I was looking for. Which is a shame, since everyone here loves verbose essays. 😉 But I did find that article, which summarizes Clinton's views. Note that it is from 2011. I think it helps explain why there has been less peace and more shit show ever since. Another thing I don't need a poll to tell me is that Alinsky was spot on when he said "the action is in the reaction." Clinton lets Arafat off easy in that essay. There were polls at the time that document that when Arafat said "Fuck peace," Israelis basically did, too. Goodbye, Barak and Labor. Hello, hardliners. While there is no justification for terrorism, period, the fact that Hamas is a reaction to everything Netanyahu stands for is simply a fact, I think. So if you believe the action is in the reaction, like I do, you can see where this is going. It won't be pretty, for anyone. You don't have to be an Einstein, or even a Netan-yahoo, to figure out that if the reaction can't be peace, somehow sooner or later it's going to be war. And here we are.

Israel Only Western Country to Prefer Trump Over Biden, Pew Finds I know I already used my bandwidth. But that headline deserves to be singled out. It makes perfect sense to me that Israel prefers Trump. Since he will generally support Netanyahu's longstanding "whatever it takes" battle plan, in practice if not in political rhetoric. Meanwhile, pretty much the rest of the world thinks Biden, like Obama, more often stands for the things people actually respect about America. I can live with that.

I think most Americans over 65 would generally agree with that statement, based on polls. Here's the thing. If turning Gaza into a parking lot involves turning thousands of innocent Palestinian women and kids into scraps of flesh and blood and brain, isn't that kind of like what Hamas just did? And can someone explain how this is the only course of action that will prevent a Palestinian Hitler from taking over and sending all the Jews in Israel to Palestinian extermination camps? That seems pretty unlikely to happen. Why? For starters, there's the entire history of how Israel always wins the body count when it comes to how many Palestinians have to die to avenge Israeli deaths. Israel has, by the way, already won the body count on this war, which hasn't even started. Holocaust II is an argument one can make. We know that, because many slightly less unrealistic arguments like this are being made. Regardless, many young Americans in particular see Israel as an apartheid state. They don't see this as preventing another Holocaust. They see it as apartheid. The idea that turning Gaza into a parking lot is okay seems to be what confirms their feelings. As far as the polls, since I'm the poll nuance guy, it is 1000 % clear that an overwhelming majority of Americans (and I think people in most countries, where polls have been taken recently) feel the US should "support" Israel after what can legitimately be called their 9/11. I'd also already read the CNN poll saying that about half of Americans feel a military response to a Hamas terrorist attack is "fully justified." My simple and I think correct interpretation of that poll is that if you ask people whether it's okay for terrorists to slaughter women and kids, most people will so no. Emphatically. And they'll say such a slaughter has to be responded to, probably with military force. Once you get beyond that, it gets very murky. Pro-Israel Democrats like Mellman can read what they want into the polls. But they are on shaky ground I think. For example, take a guess what people would probably say in response to this poll question: "Should Gaza be turned into a parking lot, even if it involves the mass extermination of Palestinian women and children, in order to protect Israelis regardless of whatever it takes?" I think most people would be against the mass extermination of Palestinian women and kids. Just like they are against terrorist attacks on Israeli women and kids. I stand by what I said. I think Israel has lost a pro-Israel US majority. What I mean is that there is broad and deep horror about a terrorist attack. And a feeling that it can't just be ignored. But is the US behind Israel, "whatever it takes?" No way. On the right, Trump is articulating the antipathy to the US being a global cop that seems to be at the heart of Trump's MAGA movement. On the left, people look at Israel and see an apartheid state. That doesn't make terrorism right. But it doesn't make apartheid right, either. A lot of what happens to US public opinion next will depend on what Israel actually does. That ABC poll you cited above, @EmmetK, actually supports my argument, not yours. It says a "plurality" - not a majority - in the US back what Israel is doing. There are as many different shades of that answer as their are nuances in poll questions. I think the thing that is very clear is that for Americans over 65, the bumper sticker "whatever it takes" does actually work well. That's the present, and past. For Gen Z, who grew up under the Israel of Netanyahu, "apartheid state" is a bumper sticker that works increasing well. That is the present, and future. If Israel does turn Gaza into a parking lot, I'll predict both US and global opinion about Israel will shift even more to "apartheid state." Good luck with that, Netanyahu. That said, it is all very fluid. I would not bet on how this plays out, either in terms of the war itself or US public opinion. I agree with @JKane that it probably means more violence, life gets shittier for Palestinians, and that lays the seeds for even more and worse horror and terrorism. I checked to see how polls turned out in similar situations in the past, like the US 9/11. I find this history instructive. Israel might want to worry about their 9/11, if they reflect on how the US 9/11 played out in the long run: The important distinction I will make is that Americans overwhelmingly agreed that our 9/11 was an unjustified horror, and something had to be done. I think the US and the world pretty much feel the same about Israel. Empathy, and support. When you just left it at that, polls at the time showed the world overwhelmingly sympathized with and supported the US. Where things got dicey, as the above polls document, is once you started to talk about a military invasion. Let alone its consequences years or decades later. And this was the GOOD war that most Americans agreed about. Once you get to Iraq, it was a divisive shit show right out of the gate. Overall, I think Iraq was the single worst US policy decision in my lifetime. Many commentators on both left and right would agree with me. Iraq set the stage for a weak and floundering US that is globally viewed as a hypocrite. Again, all that played out over years and started with the sympathy of the entire world on the side of the US right after 9/11. With the benefit of hindsight, if there is a lesson for Israel it is that a focus on legal mechanisms makes sense. Like kill the Hamas leaders or bring them to justice - if possible. And any military invasion (like Afghanistan) should have limited objectives and a clear exit strategy. That said, if I had to bet, Netanyahu's right-wing Israel will want to turn Gaza into a parking lot, permanently. It will play out as well as the US invading Afghanistan did. You heard it here first. So Israel has a lot to worry about when that sympathy fades and the new horrors of an invasion play out. Good luck, Netanyahu.

In this thoughtful Politico article pro-Israel Democrat Mark Mellman argues this is a "redefining moment" in which Americans will now side with Israel more, out of sympathy. As evidence there's a poll that 42 percent of Americans side with Israelis more than Palestinians, which is up 11 points since the attack. I think what is most interesting is the opposite. This is a redefining moment because Israel no longer has a pro-Israel American majority. If 42 % is the best they can do after an unimaginably horrific and unjustifiable rampage, Israel has a problem. US voters over 65 overwhelming (60 %) say Palestinians are more to blame for the violence. Gen Z is as likely to side with Palestinians than Israelis, even after the attack. They also are as likely to blame Israel as Palestinians for the violence. And the plurality blames both sides equally. I can remember a time when if you gave me a gun and a get out of jail free card to kill one global leader, I would have taken out Arafat. The context was he had just shit all over the Clinton/Barak effort to make peace. That was the last significant effort. And it would have left Palestinians far better off than they are today. It also was Israel's last Labor government. Times have changed. I think young Americans look at Israel and say, "It's an apartheid state, doing what apartheid states do. Why act surprised? It won't end well for anyone." One positive thought I had, big picture, is that the US dodged a bullet. Back when Golda Meir was PM of Israel most people would say the chance of having a Palestinian PM of Israel is about as great as the chance of a having a Black President of the US. The US has had a Black Democratic POTUS. And the party most associated with redneck racism (once the Democrats gave up their Jim Crow White supremacist history) now features a dynamic melting pot of Presidential candidates like Haley, Scott, and Ramaswamy. We have fully incorporated the "outsiders" into the US political system. I'm proud of that when I look at the deepening horror of Israel.

You're welcome, doctor. But I am surprised. To think, all of this time, I thought doctors were know it alls. Especially you. 🙄 Not sure if you are defending Spacey, or his lawyers. Or just being a know it all who has something important to say. Even though you don't seem to be saying anything. I stand by my point. Spacey hired lawyers who would make Trump proud, by being attack dogs trying to tear apart accusers to deflect from his serial disgusting and indefensible behavior. That quote of mine is from early in the thread. Subsequent to that I posted lots of thorough documentation of Spacey's chronic habit of being a predator.

No. Actually, it wouldn't. Why buy a symbol of neighborhood blight? Obama has much better taste than that. 😉

First, thanks for laughing at my dry sense of humor. Second, it could have been worse. I was actually thinking of posting this brand new interview between Bill Kristol and Jim Carville. Now you gave me an excuse to do it. The reason I started this thread is to talk about the reasons Biden might lose. The economy, stupid is definitely #1 on my list. But Biden's age and alleged senility is clearly #2. And that is what this interview focuses most on. I really like Kristol and Carville. That said, I was really conflicted watching this. It made me think about college Poli Sci classes with Paul Wellstone and the debate between "armchair political theorists" and quantitative data that actually proves something. These days Kristol and Carville are both armchair theorists, who may just be old and full of shit. That said, Carville in particular outs himself as a poll "bed wetter." (Poor Mary!) He sounds suspiciously like someone who cares a lot about winning. And therefore really cares about polls and focus groups that tell us what voters think. Weird, huh? So he is definitely wetting the bed about what polls and focus groups are telling us about Biden's age and perceived inability to serve for what would be more than five more years. That said, my sage Alan Lichtman basically uses objective quantitative analysis to determine who will win the Presidency, and why. And he's been right every time so far. He says age is not going to be an issue, unless Biden gets a lot worse. He says losing an incumbent is definitely a minus, history shows. And opening the possibility for a bloody internal party fight might not play out well, other than in the minds of armchair theorists like Carville and Kristol. I do think fate will decide. Not to sound harsh, but I won't be shocked if Biden just dies in the next year. Trump could, too. And if Biden's approval rating is 35 % in January, or if RFK comes close to beating him in some early primary like New Hampshire, there is going to be clamoring for others to jump in the race. If Plan Biden works and we dodge the recession bullet and inflation stays where it is now and the Fed starts cutting interest rates, that is a very different picture. One other thing jumped out at me, which echoed another recent interview Kristol had with another Clintonista political strategist, Doug Sosnik, which I cited. Sosnik argued that if Trump can make 2024 about which POTUS managed the economy better, Biden might lose. If the 2024 election is instead about whether we want more crazy, Biden will win. He predicted it will likely be the latter. While Carville is definitely wetting the bed, in his rambling and verbose Cajun common sense way he kind of made the case that most people don't want more crazy. In particular, he pointed out that the progressive woke police is a small faction in the Democratic Party. And they are losing the argument. Whereas MAGA is the Trump majority now among Republicans. And no matter what Trump does, you can never have enough craziness. If Biden and Trump are both alive and running against each other in November 2024, I would not be surprised if that determines who wins. Right now I would not bet on which way it will go.