stevenkesslar

You wandered around two issues in your post. The impact of Israel's war on the 2024 election. And broader Democratic Party turnout issues. So I'll do the same. Politics is fickle. I had high hopes for Abrams. And her voter registration work was, and is, incredible. It got Warnock elected. That said, she ran for Guv twice and lost twice. The second time by a wider margin than the first. In that same 2022 election where she did worse than she did in 2018, Warnock won again. There's lots of factors that went into that. But, at the end of the day, your point is about being about to win in 2024. And Abrams was not able to win. In Michigan, on the other hand, Whitmer is a huge winner. The rhetoric in Fall 2022 was that she might be a victim of the red wave. What red wave? Instead, she clobbered her opponent, took over the legislature, and has followed through with all kinds of legislative wins. So, again, politics is fickle. Biden is clearly in trouble. And the war in Israel does not help. Steve Kornacki helpfully contributed that right now his favorability rating is lower than any POTUS entering an election year in polling history. Even if he surges in his election year, like Obama and Clinton did before him, will it be enough? I think one thing we can safely bet on is that this will be one of the most negative campaigns ever. Some recent poll said that a majority of people who plan to vote for both Trump and Biden view it as a vote against the other guy, rather than for their guy. Biden will have to paint Trump as what one anonymous Biden aide called "full on Hitler." That said, it complicates matters when Biden is the one selling bombs to Bibi. I guess Biden's argument will be that, at the end of the day, Trump loves Bibi better. Ugh! Anyone who has a big problem with Bibi should also have a big problem with Trump, given how he favored Bibi as POTUS. Trump, Kushner and Netanyahu are hellbent on destroying the two-state solution Biden, of course, is doing the exact opposite. And saying the end goal must be a two state solution. There's a lot of prognosticating about how a lot of people who are turned off just won't vote. On the Biden side, that would include lots of young voters who feel like he's on Team Bibi The Baby Bomber. I don't have a clue. Biden will try to make it a referendum on the future of democracy and civilization. I would not be surprised if it is another huge turnout election. And, if it is, I have no clue whether that would favor Trump or Biden. Biden's stance on Israel won't help. Inflation has been his biggest problem. But, in theory, Israel or immigration or impeachment could all be seen as final nails in the coffin if he loses. There are a few things I find somewhat encouraging. There's been a lot of talk about how Biden is bleeding support among base voters. Especially young, Black, and Hispanic voters. This November Quinnipiac poll addresses that dynamic, I think. When you add RFK Jr. and West, Biden is in fact bleeding support in those three base groups: 41 % of voters under 35 say they'll vote for RFK or West. 35 % of Blacks and 41 % of Hispanics say the same. That's huge. And of course bad news for Biden. That said, in the same poll Trump has the support of 9 % of Blacks, 26 % of Hispanics, and 27 % of voters under 35. In all three cases, that is WORSE than he did with each group in 2020, based on exit polls. So the issue is NOT that Trump is winning over young voters, or Blacks, or Hispanics. It's that Biden is losing them to "anybody but Trump or Biden." But when it actually comes down to either Trump or Biden, and both sides argue their opponent will destroy America, who knows where young voters, Blacks, and Hispanics will go? Or whether they vote at all? That's probably what will determine who wins. If I had to bet, if they voted for Biden in 2020 they are mostly likely to hold their nose in 2024 and vote for him again, though. Which is mildly encouraging. That's another reason for mild encouragement. As this article notes, Biden has been very consistent in rebuilding the DNC "one team, one fight" party machinery that Obama basically left bankrupt. Will that help? Probably. We know when Obama was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012, his star power and Obama-focused grassroots organizing worked well. In 2010 and 2014 turnout sucked, and it was a disaster. One reason some people think Democrats beat the red trickle in 2022 is because they did a good job on party machinery and turnout in swing states and districts. That said, I don't think anyone knows yet what kind of wave will form in 2024. Israel, and how people feel about the bombing of innocent Palestinians, will not help. West has already said he'll use this in Michigan to win votes of Palestinians. Any wave that forms to help Biden will have to lift him from crappy 40 % favorable ratings. That's much worse than Obama and Clinton were in January of their re-election year. And such a wave will be based way more on fear of Trump than on warm fuzzies for Old Joe. To paraphrase the OP, out of context: THIS IS SCARY!

Poor thing. Granted, you get 24/7 bullshit from your butcher leader. Who has to explain why he's turning hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer. Even so, you are human. Humans have the power of critical thinking. Even in Russia. So it must just be very difficult to believe your own bullshit. But, hey. Congratulations! You do it gracefully. Zelenskyy is wildly popular. In fact, thank your sadist murderer for that. One of the many ways your sadist fucked himself, and Russia, is he made a not too popular leader of Ukraine before 2022 (49/50) into a wildly popular war leader. The more anti-Russia Zelenskyy is, the more popular he becomes. Woo hoo! Some victory for your sadist butcher. Barring some unforeseen change, Zelenskyy will be re-elected handily. Quite a change from the idea that Putin would either kill him or force him to flee within a week of invading Ukraine two years ago. It's interesting that Zelenskyy is most popular, 91 %, among younger Ukrainians. Who are of course most likely to be drafted. That tells us a lot about the future, I think. They hate Putin. They want Putin to no longer exist. They want Russia to no longer exist. Some victory for Russia! Woo hoo! Putin has managed to irrevocably make Ukraine hate Russia, forever. If the many analysts who say Russia has a good chance of breaking up in the next decade are right, Ukrainians will dance on Russia's grave. Woo hoo! Couldn't happen to nicer butchers and sadists. The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture. The headlines say it all. If the New York Times and Politico are both saying it, it is probably true. So, for purposes of debate, let's call this a big victory for Putin. What is the nature of the victory? After suffering a massive humiliation in 2022, when his invasion turned into a disaster, Putin recovered. He has proven a much smaller and weaker country can not completely drive him out of their country. And everybody in the world now hates Putin. Woo hoo! Awesome victory. Even if some deal is made that is called "peace," it won't be peace. What will be interesting to see is how Ukraine sets about to undermine Putin and Russia permanently. The history of every one of these invasions - VietNam, both the USSR and US editions of Afghanistan, Iraq - is that territory is easier to seize with overwhelming force than to hold. So Ukraine will do exactly the same, and permanently bleed Putin as dry as they can. Lots of Russians will die in occupied territories for many years to come. Assuming Putin can actually hold them, which won't be easy. Are you for or against Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? That's an amazing shift, that more than any other single graphic defines Putin's strategic defeat. And why Russia is fucked. As recently as a decade ago, a plurality of Ukrainians were opposed to joining NATO. Now an overwhelming majority want protection from their sadistic neighbors. It will take years. Ukraine will have to focus on defense. And build lots of walls and ditches and weapons. But it will have to happen. Because it is the only practical way for Ukraine to rebuild with security. That's the other reason Ukraine will have to join NATO eventually, and NATO will have to accept Ukraine. Poland could take off once it was free. Because it wanted and got security from the sadistic butchers that enslaved it. If we go back to 2021 and Putin's treatise about why Ukraine and Russia should be one, politically and culturally, he lost the debate. Ukraine wants to be prosperous, like Poland. It does not want to be a mess, like Russia. Game over. Putin lost. That will also help consolidate Ukraine's turn to the EU and NATO. I feel very sorry for the people in the blue areas that are now part of Russia. For a while, at least. It will be interesting to see whether there is some kind of Afghanistan-like guerilla warfare. Where Russians just get blown up a lot, or have their throats slit. But the long view of this is that the parts of Ukraine that identified with Russia the most, and spoke Russian the most, will now be part of Russia. Even though they mostly don't want to be. Ukraine will gradually rid itself of as much of its historic Russian identity and Russian sympathy as it can. Exactly the opposite of what Putin wanted. Woo hoo! Some victory! If Putin were smart he would shift as quickly as he can from his unsustainable butchering budget. He would try to be the nation that builds out AI, or manufactures electric cars. But that goes to the core of why Russia is fucked. The IT specialists fled. Electric cars are being made in China. AI is being built out in the US. Putin will need a big butchering budget just to defend what he took. Turkey is now close to letting Sweden join NATO. So the noose around Putin just keeps getting tighter and tighter. Russia's war/sadism economy will have to be focused first and foremost on just keeping Putin and his kleptocrats alive and in power. It's not a pretty future for Russia. But it is the future Putin fucked you with. Sorry @Moses.

By the way, @Mavica, since you're the boring type who shies away from insults and loves deep analysis, how bout we turn the spotlight back to Vlad's War/Butchering economy? Because, unlike me, I think our Russian sadist is NOT an idiot. Putin quietly signals he is open to a cease-fire in Ukraine Now, the one huge caveat is that we don't know whether that article, which is New York Times reporting, is true. That said, if it is even remotely accurate it is deeply consistent with my analysis of @Moses's favorite murderous pit bull throughout this thread. The article suggests that Putin was open to a deal last Fall, at the same time Joint Chiefs Of Staff Gen. Milley was saying the same. Milley's point, right after Ukraine kicked Russia's ass and took back lots of occupied territory, was that this may be as good as it gets for Ukraine. So far, he was right. And Putin may have felt something was better than nothing. Now Putin is in the same position. If he's as smart as he is sadistic, he may realize this is as good as it gets for Russia. If Russian soldiers go on offense, they walk right back into a meat grinder. The fact that Putin developed an unsustainable one year butchering budget itself implies he may be open to a deal. Even for a sadist, maybe he is reluctant to turn many more hundreds of thousands of Russian men into fertilizer. This puts a different spin on the United States and Europe's internal debates about aid to Ukraine. I doubt many Republicans who oppose aid really want Ukraine to lose, and Ukrainians to be slaughtered. I doubt their first priority is Ukraine, period. But they may be thinking this puts pressure on Ukraine to make a deal and live for another day. Part of the tragedy of this is that even if Putin is open to a deal, which would at best be fragile, I doubt Ukraine is. And that's not Zelenskyy. That's the Ukrainian public. I did consult with @Mavica, who is a global expert on idiots. And he confirmed that only idiots would be open to making territorial concessions to a butcher who slaughters their men, rapes their women, and either blows up or kidnaps their children. The most recent polls suggest Ukrainians, no doubt demoralized by the lack of recent victories, are more open to a deal than before. Meaning 75 percent of the country is still AGAINST making any kind of deal with Putin. They hate him. I'll repeat. He is fucked. And Russia is fucked. My own guess is that Putin knows that Russia is fucked. With Perma-War, all he has to offer is, at best, a permanent low growth butchering economy that specializes in creating weapons. And lots of good Russian fertilizer. But he may now be stuck in the horror he created. Then again, I'm an idiot. So what would I know?

Technically, no. I voted for Biden/Harris in 2020. I received my PhD in Being An Idiot in 2021. I have been on medication since 2022. So I can be an idiotic Biden/Harris supporter on medication. Or, I can be a medicated Biden/Harris supporter with idiotic tendencies. Or, for a warm and funny and thoughtful guy like you, it's okay if you say, "Steven, you're just another super fucked up Biden/Harris supporter." But I can't just be an idiot. I am so much more than that. 😉

Which problem? The border? Or my mental illness? Anyhoo, thank you. I forgot to take my medication today. So after reading your thoughtful post I took my pills. Bad Nazi Steven went away. At least for the next 12 hours. Good Steven is back. That addresses my mental illness. Here's one way of thinking of how to address the border problem: In a recent Harvard Harris poll 70 % of Americans answered that we need stricter policies. 55 % of Democrats, 71 % of Independents, and 85 % of Republicans now agree. So one good thing about Biden's policies, even if you think they suck, is that they paved the way for bipartisan agreement. The sooner Congress passes a bipartisan compromise immigration bill, the better. Back to my mental illness, you will understand this next point better than anyone, @Mavica. I'm a Biden/Harris supporter. That alone confirms that I am both mentally ill, and stupid. For that reason alone, I'm not a big fan of the RFK campaign. Simply because the most likely outcome is it helps get Trump elected. So if RFK runs a great campaign that elects Trump, it's still a shitty campaign to me. That said, I love what RFK is at least trying to do. Which is run a positive and thoughtful Independent campaign. His strongest constituency is young voters. Because he is proposing things like 3 % fixed rate government mortgages to help make homeownership affordable again to a segment of America (young people) who feel screwed. He's doing the same thing on immigration. He denies playing politics. But he is of course playing politics, by mixing the compassion talk of liberals with the tough border talk of MAGA folk. It actually is a great contribution to the debate. Especially because he's pushing the idea of compromise, compassion, thoughtful debate, and sticking up for the average American. Since you are the most thoughtful poster here, @Mavica, always informing us with facts and deep analysis, I know you agree. So here's a great 20 minute video on RFK's take on the border. If 2024 is about debates like this, it will be good for America. As well as for border policy. Again, I'm a mentally ill Biden/Harris supporter. But I welcome RFK's contribution to the debate. He's explicitly calling out Biden's unpopular border policies. Implicitly, he is calling out Trump's Nazi-like language and utter lack of compassion as well. Plus, his Spanish sucks about as bad as my Spanish and German. But if he wants to focus us on the bad ass coyotes who are getting rich off un desmadre of their own cruel creation, I'm all for it. RFK BORDER POLICY

Thank you. At least we can be honest here. I am just getting sick of it. It's not just the illegal aliens. All these un-American woke sissies at Harvard should just be deported to their respective shitholes. And I know. The Woke ACLU will say they were born here. I don't give a fuck. Just build a fucking wall around Harvard and let the sissies and Jew haters stay in their fucking woke wonderland. I am tired of hearing all this fucking whining about Palestinian women and children. There is nothing morally wrong with wiping 20,000 terrorists off the face of the earth. In fact, it is anti-Semitic to whine about blowing those 20,000 terrorists up. It's just less immigrant filth to poison our blood. There is only only leader whose people march FOR Jews and FOR Israel. Donald "My Son-In-Law Is The Best Jew Ever" Trump! We need a strong leader who has the back of the Jews! There is nothing wrong when the people the country belongs to want to make it great again and decide to rid their country of filth. We're not haters just because wir wollen reines Blut!

One thing I really appreciate about @Moses and @EmmetK is that, even if we disagree about policy, they are always factually correct. For example, there was no caravan crisis when Trump was President. Had there been, he might have been fired. But this caravan crisis that exists under Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden just didn't exist under Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump. That's just a fact. Migrant caravans restart as pandemic deepens the humanitarian crisis at the US-Mexico border Published: October 6, 2020 One of the truly remarkable things about Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump's leadership of the US was that everything was calm at the border. There were rules, and everyone followed them. People just need to be reminded that in October 2020, as that headline says, there were no caravans. There was no border crisis. Even Mexicans, especially Moms with kids, praised the fair and compassionate way Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump managed the border. This is why Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump won re-election overwhelmingly in 2020. Only lying and unethical Democrats (and a few demented Independents) buy this bullshit about how Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden won. Trump won by more votes than any leader on any planet in the entire universe ever. That's just a fact. Once fairness and compassion is restored under Donald "I'm A Genius, Again" Trump, there is an obvious solution. First, we need the biggest mass deportation of illegal aliens, ever. Second, all these lying and un-American Democrats should be deported, too. And sent back to the shit holes they came from. What disgusts me even more is that these un-American Democrats don't even care about how raping, murdering Mexicans are killing our own kids with fentanyl. Under Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump, there was no drug problem. A fair and compassionate leader like Trump wouldn't let an ounce of that killer drug into the US. Much less the truckloads and barges that Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden practically waves in. People just need to be reminded that before that senile old fart and his ignorant Black female Veep were in charge, we had no fentanyl problem in America. As that chart shows. That's just a fact. Just like we had no border crisis and no caravans in 2020 until the senile fart was elected. That's just a fact.

It's fun to watch how you deny every fact from every poster. including by posting graphics that mean nothing. Obviously this is not the place for a factual debate But here's an idea. Lets' swap places. Just for fun, I'll be you and defend the sadist butcher! Look! Every country in world love Russia. Every country in world buys oil from Russia and glorious economy. US love glorious leader of Russia. UK loves glorious leader of Russia. Germany loves glorious leader of Russia. This is a fact! Why do all these countries love glorious Russia and want to be like Russia? Because they love glorious Russian leader and want to be like vibrant and most powerful economy of whole world- Russia! it is a fact!

True, I wouldn't either. But Russia is a special place as far as being super fucked up. It is definitely where I'd want to live if I wanted to fall out of windows; fly in airplanes that explode; be tortured, jailed, or killed for having an opinion; or simply be turned into fertilizer. Nobody is a better butcher than you, Vlad! P.S. If I wanted to live somewhere that chops me into pieces I'd definitely want to like in that MBS dude's country though.

You should add Africa to your list of continents that thinks Putin is a butcher. At least Africa is where De Nile is. You should like it there. African sentiment is favouring Ukraine What part of "Africa doesn't like Russia and thinks Putin is a butcher" do you not understand. Most of the world does not want Russia to exist. Your unloved sadistic nation is probably going to fail and disintegrate.

We got facts. You've got dreams. Let's see. Is South Africa in Africa? I think so. They don't like you. The one country on that list that likes Russia in India. Because you sell them cheap shit. And Master Xi does not like his sadistic pit bull. HE LOVES HIM. Master Xi will buy as much cheap shit as his desperate little sadistic pit bull will sell. No doubt. The little murderous pit bull will no doubt survive for years as he weakens Russia. As long as he stays on Master Xi's leash, and doesn't fuck things up too much. Master Xi could give a shit how many hundreds of thousands of Russians die. We all know Master Xi looks down on his mongrel pit bull and his people, anyway. He's just using you. If you like being on Master Xi's leash and being used, good for you. I'm happy for you.

You can pick any number you want, @Moses. But this is the point of that poll. This is why the world views Russia as this awful place they want to go bye bye, with this sadistic butcher they wish were dead. They want your country to not exist. And it's probably about a 50/50 chance that Russia won't exist in a decade. Enjoy it while it lasts. Nobody admires Russia for wanting to butcher men, woman, and children and depopulate a country. They want Russia to go bye bye as quickly as possible. That is Putin's legacy for all time. You're fucked. Yeah, you can kill lots of men, women, and children in the meantime. And sit back and gloat as hundreds of thousands of Russians die. But Russia is fucked in a way it does not even begin to understand. You are doing a great job giving voice to the desperation and denial.

Russia is the most fucked place on the planet. Most people don't even want it to exist. Most people don't want Putin to exist. Most people wish this whole part of the world called Russia could just be flushed down the toilet. Putin's legacy is that people all over the world will think of Russians and Russia as this fucked up murderous mess. Nobody needs it. Nobody wants it. Everyone wants Putin dead and Russia to no longer exist. Will people buy real cheap shit from Russia? Sure. So we have the US stock market at all time highs, racing to lead AI. We have a China that is economically weak, but still leading in many technological areas, like from supersonic fighter jets to electric cars. Russia is leading the world in guns, butchering people, and turning their men into fertilizer. Putin has distorted and warped their economy. Russia's economy now depends on selling cheap shit and killing hundreds of thousands of Russians. If they grow 3 % for a year, so what? We all still think they suck, and we want them to be weak or dead. They're fucked to a level they do not even realize. RUSSIA Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years Most people on the planet want Russia to go bye bye. This is an extremely harsh verdict that is reserved for few countries in history. But Russia is there. People all across the planet want Putin dead, and Russia dead. They literally want Russia not to exist. And it is quite likely that in the next decade that will happen. You can already see this in the difference between the invasions of Iraq by the US and Afghanistan by either the US and USSR. In all three of those cases, it at least looked like the invader won for a while. They did take over the government and the army, for a while. Putin has been humiliated from Day One. He can't take over the government, army, or people of Ukraine. Sure, he's a big strong guy. His soldiers can rape women and kill children before they are killed themselves. But that's not winning a war. Putin's big victory right now is that Ukraine could not make him lose in 2023. That's it. If anyone thinks that a ratio of 3 Russians to 1 Ukrainian makes it inevitable Putin will win, why didn't that happen in Afghanistan or Iraq? Putin is fucked, and Russia is fucked. What is happening right now is NOT why Putin will win. It is why the future breakup of Russia is accelerating.

That's all true. The worst case scenario is no funding for Ukraine from the US, for a while at least, and Trump wins in November 2024. I agree. That said, I stand by what I said. I don't think Ukraine will give up. I guess the furthest I would go is that Putin is able to take a few more provinces. But the bad news for Putin is that any "win," just like in Afghanistan and Iraq, sets the stage for more bloodbath. I just down see Americans say, "Geez, wouldn't it be nice if a butcher like Putin ruled the world and killed us." The action is always in the reaction. Just like when Putin invaded Ukraine in the first place. I think the US, and especially Trump, can help Putin by making it easy for him to be a sadistic butcher. But no matter how fucked up the US is, and how awful Trump is, I don't think the US or Trump can make Putin win or Ukraine lose. No matter what, Ukrainians will be doing everything they can to kill as many Russians as they can. And this will continue to warp Russia's economy. EU vows Ukraine will get its money — with or without Orbán’s support Leaders are willing to bust Europe’s hallowed unity if that’s what it takes to send cash to Kyiv. If it were up to me, I would say of course the US will be Ukraine's biggest funder. That is the image I would want the US to have in the world. But if it turns out even Biden and McConnell can't get their way, it is not the worst thing in the world that Europe has to lead the effort to stand up to Putin, at least for a while. Vast majority of Europeans see Russia as an adversary, poll finds On average, two-thirds of the people polled across 10 European countries consider Russia as a rival to their own country. That's a massive change from a decade ago. Europeans see Putin as a butcher and Russia as a country the want to weaken. The country in the world most likely to implode in the next decade is Russia. They're fucked. Support for US Commitment to NATO at 48-Year High That poll is a year old. But I don't think much has changed. 90 % of Democrats and 3 in 4 Independents and Republicans support maintaining or increasing support for NATO. The notion that NATO or the US or the EU are just gonna roll over and let Master Xi's pit bull win is ridiculous. Ain't gonna happen. Even if Trump is elected. Which I don't think is gonna happen, either. That

Ukrainian corruption? That's a good one!

Duh! The Ukrainians. That's obvious. Except to you, meathead. But there is more good news for you, my dear. Hannibal can't eat your brain, either. Because I have made the point about manpower several times. And either you're in deep denial. Or you are maybe kind of brainless. 🤪 1979: Soviet Union invades Afghanistan. Afghan population: 13 million. USSR population: 262 million Population ratio: 20 to 1 favoring Soviet Union Winner of conflict: Afghanistan 1994: Chechen war begins Chechnya population: 1.2 million Russia population: 148 million Population ratio: 125 to 1 favoring Russia Winner of conflict: Russia 2001: United States invades Afghanistan Afghan population: 20 million US population: 285 million Population ratio: 14 to 1 favoring United States Winner of conflict: Aghanistan 2003: United states invades Iraq Iraq population: 27 million US population: 292 million Population ratio: 11 to 1 favoring United States Winner of conflict: Iraq 2022: Russia invades Ukraine Ukraine population: 44 million Russia population: 143 million Population ratio: 3 to 1 favoring Russia Winner of conflict: Take a guess? You are so deeply in denial and so allergic to any fact that forces you to confront reality that you had to misrepresent population. Just like you totally misrepresented Putin's budget, to hide how he is bleeding your economy, your schools, and your hospitals dry. But even if I give you the 6 to 1 ratio implied by your bogus Ukraine population of 25 million, you are still deeply fucked. Even when Putin really got going in 1999, it took a couple years and mass slaughter and bombardment to mostly pacify Chechnya. And that was a separatist conflict in your own country, where Chechnya was basically on its own. The Afghanistan conflict is much closer to this bloodbath. But all the metrics say Russia should be doing worse. And it is. It's much more of a fair fight, just in terms of manpower. Ukraine turned into a quagmire for Russia much quicker. Almost immediately. So you're up to your old sadistic tricks of massive bombardment and slaughter and depopulation. But it ain't working any better. In Afghanistan, you didn't have 50 or so well organized nations arming a standing national army. Now you do. Which explains why it is vastly more effective to turn Russians into fertilizer. Whether they are some poor schmuck who got drafted, or an honored Russian general. No wonder Putin is desperate to bleed Russia dry, in every way, to at least try to appear to win. Or just have a stalemate. The person who makes your argument best - better than you - is Mearsheimer. His argument is that the country with more soldiers and more weapons win. But it is obviously not that simple. If there is any simple formula here, it's that if you are going to invade another country, or even put down a separatist rebellion, you better have a 100 to 1 force ratio. And a lot of time and money. And a lot of men who either want to fertilizer, or have no choice. Good luck, dear. You'll need it. And try to be safe out there.

You're welcome. You keep making my argument. My point is that kind of thinking in the US led to four things: 1) dead Americans, 2) dead Iraqis, 3) global humiliation and weakening of the US, 4) Donald Trump, as a reaction. So that was all very, very, very bad news for the US. And the world, I think. And as an opponent of the Iraq War from Day One, I completely agree with you. I'd even give you a hug. Or let you spank me. Except I'm afraid you might turn me into fertilizer. 😯 What's remarkable is that even though Russia has a smaller population than the US, a weaker military, and about 50 nations are flooding arms to Ukraine, somehow you think you are going to outperform the US. You're in total denial. Russia's fate will be the same, but far worse. But Putin's overconfidence and reckless spending is good news. It's just a set up for Russia to lose. I'd say Putin is spending like a drunk sailor. But it's more like he's spending like a dead sailor. I'm sorry so many Russians will have to die, thanks to Putin's sadism and overconfidence. And Putin has far outperformed W. on sadism, rape, torture, child killing, and every measure of horror imaginable. Maybe even cannibalism. As of 2021 4500 US and allied troops were killed in Iraq. Russian "meat" is at least 10 times that number, in your own words. Probably in the hundreds of thousands, if your butcher was honest about how many Russians he has gotten killed so far. And even if we take the number 500,000 dead Iraqis over the course of a few decades, Putin is doing a much better job of killing Ukrainians. There's another huge difference that is very bad news for Russia, even if we assume Putin "wins." Remember, the US "won" the Iraq War. Before it all went to hell. The number of Iraqis actually killed by US and allied troops is, at most, in the tens of thousands, by every count Wikipedia lists. So the vast majority of civilian deaths in Iraq were caused by criminal gangs or terrorists like ISIS. You can blame the US for opening Pandora's box. But we didn't burn people on alive on video. Russia has definitely opened Pandora's box. But Ukrainians won't be killing each other. They'll be killing Russians, happily, forever. As long as Russians are in Ukraine, including Crimea, they now basically all have a sign that says "I am fertilizer" hanging over their heads. Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks Pullout represents painful setback for the Kremlin, which seized Crimea in 2014 I think the majority of Americans, like me, will follow the lead of Ukraine. But at least to me it would be good news if the battle lines froze. And Ukrainians stopped being slaughtered trying to make some Hollywood movie style breakthrough. It's clear that for every Russian in occupied Ukraine, there is at least one, and maybe as many as five, Ukrainians who will gladly kill them when they have a chance. Although if they are Russian big wigs, they'll have a cruise missile with their very own name on it. Imagine what ISIS could have done if 50 nations in North America, Europe, and Asia were flooding weapons to them to kill Americans? I think John Mearsheimer is probably right that Putin wouldn't want Kyiv or Lviv even if he could take it. It would make it so easy to kill so many Russians. Even a sadistic butcher like Putin might have a problem at home. Not to mention how much it would cost him. Which is clearly money Putin does not have. So even if Putin can explode his war/butchering budget and hold all his lines, it's just a question of whether Russian soldiers are bled out quickly, or slowly. And whether the Russian economy is bled out quickly, or slowly. Master Xi can keep his pit bull on a leash. And buy his cheap shit. But he can't stop that from happening. Not unless Master Xi really wants World War 3. Which he clearly doesn't. Unlike Putin, Xi doesn't seem to think it makes sense to kill lots of his own people. So I don't think you've even begun to realize the magnitude of how fucked Russia is. Enjoy your overconfidence, while it lasts.

Well, there is good news, @Moses. If Hannibal Lecter is Russian, he won't have many brains to eat. Because, thanks to Putin, there won't be many left. Come to think of it, if Putin is ever held accountable and loses his job, he could play an aging Hannibal in the sequel.

Again, everyone else has tuned out. And I am starting to. I get it. You want to blame "the West" for the fact that Ukraine wants to be free and democratic. You want to blame "the West" for the fact that Ukrainians don't want peace with a sadistic butcher. Because they don't trust a sadistic butcher who has raped their women, killed their children, and tortured and slaughtered their men. When a sadistic butcher invades Ukraine and creates a bloodbath, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians, it is very important for you to insist that my hands are bloody. You may as well blame all 49 nations who are arming Ukraine. It is their fault for not wanting to make peace with a sadistic butcher. That is your argument. Thank you for illustrating what denial means. You of course don't understand this is why I know you will lose. I can tell you how this worked in America. But you won't get it. I remember a conversation with my own father, a World War 2 veteran, when the Iraq War was going really badly. He insisted we should keep fighting, so the Iraqi people had a chance at democracy. It was our version of the propaganda I am sure you (and now the Chinese) see on the news every day. I wasn't going to tell my Dad, "So, basically, you think we should continue the bloodbath, so that more Iraqi children are slaughtered." I loved and respected my Dad. So that was something I just wasn't going to say. But it helps explain why the US lost. Any why it took us a very long and bloody time to lose. So if you want to say the US has blood on our hands because of Iraq, help yourself. I agree. Now you are in the same position. if you want to be smug and overconfident about what a good job Russia is doing killing and raping and imposing hell on Ukraine, go ahead. Believe me, I get it. I watched my country do a version of this in Iraq. And we had way, way, way more military power than Putin has. So be overconfident. Be convinced you will win. Be proud of creating an unprovoked bloodbath. Celebrate all the raping and torturing and murdering. Rejoice at how many children your sadistic butcher has killed and kidnapped. I predicted that is why the US would lose. And we did. Although we were nowhere near as sadistic. We didn't kidnap children, and intentionally bomb shelters where children were trying to survive. This is why Russia will lose. It's only a matter of how much time and death and horror it takes.

Thank you for confirming my point. This is sick. This is sadism. Putin will lose. If you had the vaguest clue how democracies and free nations work, you would understand this is precisely why the entire world will buy Putin's cheap stuff even as they organize his defeat. I feel very sorry for the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians who have been and will be turned into meat. But that's the point. Russia is not a democracy, and it is not free. So your sadistic butcher will turn as many Russians into meat as he needs to. And you seem to be proud of it.

Gotcha. I've actually learned a lot from this back and forth, since I am fact checking what you say. So thanks. But this debate is having diminishing returns. You basically want to take any marginal fact that is favorable to Russia you can find, like what Slovakia does, and argue that means you are winning. And then ignore everything else. What's more recent and far more important than Slovakia is what Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania just did to strengthen the NATO coalition. But I get it. You want to ignore all that and just pretend that what happens in Slovakia determines the outcome. In my country, we call it "grasping at straws." Go ahead. Dream. Deny.

Again, you want to have it both ways. Did the US completely fuck up in Iraq? Absolutely! I personally thought it would be a disaster. And it was a disaster. I'm more than willing to admit that and learn from it. You are in complete denial. But this explains why Putin will eventually lose. However long it takes. Ukraine is like Iraq on steroids. There were countries, like Germany, that pushed back against W's stupid idea of invading Iraq But they did not put together a global coalition to arm Iraqis to kill Americans. And yet, America - the strongest military power in the world - got its ass kicked anyway. Why? Because Iraqis hated Americans and wanted US and allied soldiers dead. There ya go. That's the before and after pictures of 4 dead Americans in Iraq who were turned into roasted meat. So if you follow your own logic, @Moses, this is what Putin's war/butchering economy is paying for. His butchering economy is paying to turn his own people into meat. You admit this yourself. You're almost proud of the fact that lots of Russian soldiers, who attacked Ukraine, are turning Ukrainians into meat and fertilizer before they are turned into meat and fertilizer themselves. This is why nobody likes Russia. This is why anyone who can get out of Russia is leaving. You have noticed Russia and the US have the opposite problem, right? The US has too many people trying to get in. In Russia, people are desperate to get out. Ever wonder why? The only good news for many of Russia's best and brightest - maybe up to 1 million - is they were able to get out before they were turned into barbeque. And this is something you're proud of?

Thanks. You are confirming all my points. This is why people hate Putin and Russia. This is why they would love it if someone turned Putin into fertilizer. This is why the whole world is organizing itself against Putin and Russia. This is why Russia is fucked. Is any part of what those people are saying, "We want to be like Russia. We want to be under the control of a sadistic butcher?" Nope. First, you are quoting marginal players. The Czech Republic is sending tanks and arms to Ukraine. That statement is vague. But he's basically saying, "Yup. Putin is a sadistic butcher. Ukraine taking on a sadistic butcher who is willing to sit back while hundreds of thousands of Russians are killed won't be easy." Blame that on Putin, not Ukraine. Fico has not been on Team Ukraine since long before the war started. Slovakia is not a major player. He doesn't want to send any arms to Ukraine. So he has a marginal position within the EU and NATO. So your argument is that one weak link in a strong chain determines the outcome. It's very weak logic, @Moses. But you are a desperate man and a desperate nation in denial. So go ahead. Dream on. Believe you are somehow winning. What we have for sure learned is that, in war, overconfidence will bite you in the ass. Russia learned that in 2022, and Ukraine learned that in 2023. So go on. Dream big, @Moses. Be overconfident. Go on the offensive. Its a good way to maximize the number of Russians that are killed, while your sadist butcher and his pals get richer and richer. Woo hoo! The top five suppliers of arms to Ukraine are the US, Germany, the UK, the EU, and Norway. You want to have it both ways, @Moses. You complained earlier in this thread that Boris Johnson encouraged Ukraine to fight. But that is exactly the point you are in total denial about. It's true. Ukraine wants to be a democracy free of your sadistic butcher. And the UK wants to help them. Boris kind of said, "Yes. Kill as many Russians as it takes." You do understand that, right? You're not blaming Ukraine for wanting to be free of your sadistic butcher, are you? Ukrainians are overwhelmingly ready and willing to kill as many Russians as it takes to be free and democratic. You do not understand that. You do not respect that. You are in denial. Russia is fucked. Ukraine is not alone. Look at this massive list of countries that are sending massive amounts of arms to Ukraine to kill Russians. You are surrounded by nations that are ready, willing, and able to see Russian soldiers killed - hundreds of thousands, millions - if that is what it takes to be democratic and free. You do not understand this. You do not respect it. You are in denial Russia is fucked. Why are 49 nations sending thousands of specific weapons systems - artillery, tanks, missiles - to Ukraine to kill as many Russian soldiers as it takes? Because they all hate Putin. ESPECIALLY the nations like Poland that used to be under the control of the USSR. The last thing they want is a sadistic butcher like Putin raping their women, killing their children, and turning their men into meat. So, yes. Please. Quote the head of a small European nation, who is at the very margin of the debate. All it proves is that you do not understand democracy. You do not understand everyone hates you. Everyone is committed to supporting Ukraine. Everyone will let Putin throw as many Russians into the meat grinder as needed if he insists on doing so. And eventually Putin will lose. And his war/butcher economy will be fucked. If you think Ukraine is going to make peace with a sadistic butcher, dream on. Putin himself has convinced the world that NO ONE wants to be his partner, or make peace with him. Except his Master, Xi, who keeps his pit bull on a leash. And everyone else, like India, will gladly buy cheap Russian stuff. As long as your sadist butcher is desperate for any money he can get to turn his own people into meat. It's sick. And he will lose.

You don't understand democracy. You don't understand free people don't want to be under the control of a sadistic butcher. So you would not even understand your question is the wrong question. The correct question is, "What was Ukraine thinking?" Ukraine was thinking they want democracy. Ukraine was thinking they want to be part of the EU. Ukraine was thinking they want to be part of NATO. Ukraine was thinking they don't want to be part of Russia. All those oblasts except Crimea and Sevastopol City voted overwhelming (over 80 %) that they don't want to be part of Russia. But you don't understand democracy and freedom, do you? You understand turning Ukrainians that resist your sadistic butcher into meat. Ukraine was thinking the same thing as: Czech Republic Hungary Poland Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania Romania Slovakia Slovenia Albania Croatia Montenegro North Macedonia Finland Sweden (soon) See the pattern, @Moses? No one wants to be part of Russia. Everyone wants security from Russia and the butcher sadist who runs it. They are looking at what your butcher sadist is doing and all saying, "That is horrible. We do not want anything to do with that butcher sadist. We want to be part of NATO. We want security from the butcher sadist. We want freedom. We do not want to be turned into fertilizer." So I agree with you that Ukraine may not be able to take back their country anytime soon. So the good news for Russia is that they get to have lots of their people turned into fertilizer if they want to fight. Woo hoo! While your weak economy manages to survive and grow a little bit by turning your men into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Yup. Everyone in the world sure wants to be like Russia. You obviously have a superior economic and political model. 😉 But, hey. As long as your sadistic butcher stays on Master Xi's leash and sells Master Xi stuff for cheap, China will think you are inferior and stupid while they benefit. It's a great deal for China. Not for Russia. Sorry.