stevenkesslar

You're getting my drift now. 😉 Actually, I was thinking of digestive congenitalitis. It's a rare disease mainly afflicting former escorts who now have less cock to suck. I don't think it is Biden's problem. But how would I know. Anyway, enough for the cocky humor. We now return you to your regularly scheduled bloodbath.

I'm glad you included the words "probably" and "some". The fact is we have no idea what those Governors said to Biden. We have no idea what most party leaders are saying in private. I think the only thing we know for sure is that opinion is all over the map. Here's one thing I view as bedrock. Nancy Pelosi knew it was important to avoid a party bloodbath replacing her last year. She was successful in choreographing a transition free of division and conflict. Both Trump and Biden knew it was in their interest to avoid a divisive primary bloodbath. Both Republicans and Democrats rallied around their leaders, both of whom are or have been POTUS. Again, everyone in the big boy's and girl's room knew a bloodbath would hurt their chances. My point is that I am 100 % sure Democratic party leaders are right now focused on one thing: how do we stop this from turning into a bloodbath? I am confident they will solve this problem. As Lichtman said, they have a good Plan A and Plan B, if they want to avoid Trump and chaos. In my view it was the luck of the draw whether Biden stumbled in a debate, or Trump had a stroke. Either, or both, are disasters just waiting to happen. So the idea that we somehow know that Biden is about to be diagnosed with dementia or Trump is about to have a stroke doesn't make any sense to me. The day after the debate I was with three family members, and we all agreed there was maybe a 5 % chance that Biden would have to bow out. I'd now say it's maybe 25 %. I personally think that this was a godsend. Even though the debate went exactly the opposite as planned. Sometimes it makes sense to circle the wagons and suppress dissent. But when 80 % of Americans say this guy is just too old, the strategy is simply not working. Never Trump Republican pollster Frank Lutz said months ago that the party that will win is the party that does not have Biden or Trump as their nominee. Since both are unpopular symbols of a stinky status quo. The fact that Michelle Obama somehow beats Trump by double digits mainly speaks to the fact that a majority of people want hope and change again. I think the wisest Democrats in the room are now quietly trying to figure out what that means. And I don't think anyone knows the answer yet. True. It's an odd slip. I of course meant congenital heart failure. I think it's because, as much as I love to talk about genitals, I tried to avoid doing so around Mom and Dad 😲

Sorry to be a total bitch, my dearest and most darlingest Sister In Cock. But you know me. Some political pundit was on TV last night saying that, for the first time, Trump is approaching 50 % in polls. The figure the pundit used was that, previously, Trump was limited to 46 % or so of the vote. To be precise, he "won" with 46.1 % of the votes in 2016, compared to 48.2 % for Hillary. He lost with 46.8 % of the votes in 2020, compared to 51.3 % for Biden. Those percentages of course depend on a shifting turnout base, that increased by close to 20 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Regardless, so far it has been an axiom of US politics that a majority of Americans reject Trump, his lies, his narcissism, and his gross old pawing and molesting and pussy grabbing hands. That has not changed. In the current RCP average, which includes lots of post-debate polls, Trump is still stuck at exactly 46.7 % of the vote. Try as they might, Team MAGA can't spin a gross old pussy grabbing asshole as anything other than a gross old pussy grabbing asshole. Voters are smart. They just don't like gross old pussy grabbing assholes. The Democrats' biggest problem now is Biden's age. That is part of what is holding Biden down to 43.8 % of the vote. Their second biggest problem is voters don't like inflation (problem solved) or higher prices (problem unsolvable) either. So what we don't know is whether switching out Harris for Biden will help or hurt. Either way, we need someone who can argue passionately that the solution to 2022 inflation is NOT 2025 tax cuts to billionaires, skyrocketing deficits that will result, and a war on women and their bodies. Trump, as felon, is not getting any more popular. A majority of Americans reject his old pussy grabbing hands. Ugh! The problem is that Biden is getting quickly and alarmingly less popular.

I'll say this ad nauseum. Be careful hat you wish for. Trump lost by millions of votes in 2016. He was President solely due to a quirk in our election system - the electoral college - that was in large part designed to support slavery. It was a legal victory, for sure. But hardly a mandate. He spent his term showering wealth and tax cuts on billionaires like himself. And seeking retribution by gutting a now popular health care law that keeps millions Americans from being sick and broke. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2018. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2020. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2022. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2023. The one bright exception was Kevin McCarthy's smart and disciplined effort to recruit and elect non-White and non-male conservatives to the US House, which helped him achieve the slimmest of Republican majorities. That happened despite Trump's frequently racist and sexist bile. And his inability to keep his gross old disgusting hands off women and their pussies. Ugh! So go ahead and continue to be brilliant, @EmmetK. You have a perfect track record of hating facts, and backing losers who lead you to more losses. Just be careful what you wish for.

Sorry you had to go through that with your mother. I'll never forget when a doctor approached me in a hospital and told me my mother had vascular dementia. I sent a fact sheet I found on the internet out to my Dad and siblings, which opened a discussion about what to do about it. My Mom subsequently spent five years in a nursing home. And it was painful to watch her completely lose herself. My Dad, on the other hand, lived to be almost 100 and died of cognitive heart failure. He visited his wife in the nursing home almost every day, for years. He remained sharp as a tack, mostly. But in his 90's my brothers and I would keep track of his assets for him, put his bills on autopay, arrange for in-home care for things he could no longer do on his own. Therein lies the problem for Biden, and Democrats. Nancy Pelosi summed it up nicely by saying we don't know whether this is an "episode, or a condition." It would be good for both Biden and Trump to take the most rigorous cognitive function tests out there, since that might help answer questions. It won't surprise me if one outcome of this shit show is Congress passing an age limit on Presidents, just like we have a two term limit. For now, we just don't know. Nor do we know if Trump is demented, as well as a narcissistic liar incapable of speaking the truth who has dictatorial tendencies. If there is "deafening advice from almost everyone to quit for the good of the country," I am not hearing it. What I heard yesterday is pretty much every Democratic Governor in America defending Biden - albeit with big reservations. The quiet part is mostly NOT being spoken out loud. At least not yet. Allan Lichtman just answered what I viewed as the $1 million question: how do Democrats get out of this shit show and defeat Trump? I think he's spot on that Democrats have to choose between Plan A and Plan B. Otherwise we get Plan C 🤢: four more years of Trump and MAGA, in all their flaming and hideous glory. Plan A is hold the line and argue this is an episode. If I think about my Dad, that could very well be correct. When my Dad was 81 he was still sharp as a tack, and would be for another decade and more. Even though he was clearly slowing down physically. Plan B is recognize that what happened to your Mom and my Mom could be starting to happen to both Biden and Trump. Again, we just don't know. I'd like them both to take several cognitive tests. If party leaders and donors force Biden out - it now seems clear he will have to be forced out - I think he should simply resign. Let America have a preview of Cackling Kick Ass Kamala. Biden's deputy campaign manager was on TV last night spelling out why, legally and functionally, the Biden/Harris campaign juggernaut is really the only game in town that can defeat Trump. The Wisconsin Democratic chair was on TV talking about how last weekend 1500 or so Biden/Harris volunteers door knocked. You can't replace that infrastructure overnight. If Biden himself can't lead the Biden/Harris ticket, which Democrats chose in the primary overwhelmingly, Harris then has to. Lichtman's Keys are all based on common sense. It makes common sense that if Biden is not the nominee, we do not want a party bloodbath. We want to project order, reason, transparency, and change. We want the nation to see Kick Ass Kamala in action, calling out Trump for his lies and stupidity. And demanding he keep his gross old hands off womens' bodies.

I don't think whoever wrote this has run a national campaign, or talked with anyone who has. This is basically saying, "Let's make extra sure Donald Trump wins. The #1 job of Democrats is to make absolutely sure Trump wins." There is a huge battleship at sea called the Biden/Harris campaign. Right now, even after an awful debate (by Biden, not Harris, who shone in her own interviews) that warship is still pretty close to beating Battleship Trump. To replace a juggernaut with a toy boat would be truly suicidal. That's what replacing Biden or Harris with (name a human being other than Biden or Harris) would do. Some lawyer would likely think of ways to skirt campaign finance and other laws. But it would put any Democrat not named Biden or Harris at a huge disadvantage. All the people who have worked on Presidential campaigns are saying this. Even people like Jim Clyburn, who is talking about a sort of pseudo-primary, are making it clear they think Harris will win the delegates, no doubt with Biden's help. While it would be a bridge too far for Biden, if he is going to step aside Biden should resign. Kamala would be President, and it would be a done deal without a party fight. By voting for Biden in the primary, Democrats actually did vote for Kamala as the #2 that would replace him if needed. If party leaders now decide it is needed, and Biden agrees, Kamala is the one. More important, if the problem to be solved is beating Trump, she would be better off being able to run as an incumbent. Lots of Republicans are saying Biden should resign. They should be careful what they wish for.

First, there are no reports of his dementia. Second, you are false in saying their are reports of his dementia. It is true that lots of people, including me, think Trump is a demented narcissist. Psychologists have written articles about Trump's narcissism. But there is no actual medical or neurological report saying the Felon In Chief is diagnosed with dementia. We do know Trump is a convicted felon, though. That's just a fact. If there is a medical or neurological report stating Biden has dementia, please share it. Otherwise, you have yet again documented your contempt for facts.

Are we talking about the election, or a bath house, Sis? 😲

Thanks for confirming my point.

Ugh! Racism and sexism all rolled into one. The Republican argument is always the same. If she's a woman, a Black, and a Democrat, she is an unqualified loser. How fucking stupid can MAGA dolts be? They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2018. They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2020. They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2022. They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2023. It's not possible that all White male Republicans are that stupid, is it? They can learn from failure after failure, right?

Actually, if you cared about facts rather than lies and insults, you would know the answer. Kamala Harris is the winner. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the losers. Biden for sure lost the debate. He looked old and weak. That said, Obama blew the first debate with Romney by even bigger polling margins. Not to mention Reagan's senile moments in his first debate in 1984. So Biden now has to get up off his ass and prove he can fight, or die. If he dies, Kamala takes his place. I would not call her a loser. If you cared about facts (which you don't ... lol) you might have read Tim Ryan's essay, "Kamala Harris Should Be The Democratic Nominee For 2024," which voices what lots of Democrats are saying in private I think Nancy Pelosi just delivered what could be considered the official response of the Democratic Party elite, now that Team Blue has had a week to talk to each other and think about it: Pelosi does nothing without a plan of how she will win. She never let votes come to the House floor when she did not know the outcome. So that statement above already hints at the plan that is in moving into place. Maybe this was just a bad episode of The Joe Show. Or maybe it is a condition. And, by the way, what about that crazy narcissistic liar - Donald Trump - who just said he doesn't know how electricity works and how planes fly? Which is worse? Trump lies, Trump stupidity, or Trump failure? Trump failed in 2018. Trump failed in 2020. Trump failed in 2022. He is a liar, a criminal, and a narcissist. I think Nancy Pelosi is on to something. She is an expert at figuring out how to do three things: 1) lead Trump to failure, 2) lead Trump to failure, and 3) lead Trump to failure. If there is anyone particularly capable of ushering Joe Biden to the side, it is the respected House Speaker who stepped aside herself. And who choreographed a seamless and unifying transition of power in the US House. Here is another fact @EmmetK is unconcerned about. We don't know whether Joe Biden has a condition called dementia. We also don't know whether Donald Trump has a condition called dementia. Pelosi, as an aging leader who wisely stepped aside, is the right person to ask a great question: are EITHER of these old men fit to be our leader? In a CNN poll released today, 75 % of all voters said Democrats have a better chance of winning WITHOUT Biden. That's up from 53 % in January. Even among Democrats, 56 % now say their party has a better chance of winning WITHOUT Biden. By contrast, 60 % of all voters and 83 % of Republicans say they have a better chance of winning with Trump. That may seem like great news for Republicans, and bad news for Democrats. But here's a cool Jedi mind trick. Imagine Kamala Harris is the nominee, and not Joe Biden. Suddenly all that reverses. And then Donald Trump is unquestionably the old stinky narcissistic liar. Voters seem to be beginning to imagine just that. In the new CNN poll, Trump beats Biden 49 to 43. That's essentially unchanged from before the debate, and for most of this year. Meanwhile, Trump beats Harris 47 to 45, which is a statistical tie. In every recent poll I have seen, Harris does as well or better than Biden in a horse race against Trump. Meanwhile, Trump beats Newsom, Buttigieg, and Whitmer by either 4 or 5 points each. It's clear Democratic leaders are not ready to throw Biden under the bus .. yet. But if that moment comes, and it could, Harris is the only realistic replacement. Now is a good time to start talking openly about what that would mean. And especially what it means for a MAGA movement that is stuck with the smelly old narcissistic liar and loser and felon they happily fell in line behind. Check out Kamala talking to voters on the night Joe Biden floundered. It's one night. But I think she defended the accomplishments and vision of their Administration better than he did. David Axelrod is right. Republicans who are calling on Democrats to dump Biden should be careful what they wish for. They may not like the outcome in November if we do.

The AI blowhard is probably not AI. If @EmmetK were an AI creation, he would be able to get facts right. But the real @EmmetK is completely incapable of making factually correct statements. All he can do is insult and say things that are factually incorrect. Factually Wrong @EmmetK just drinks that MAGA KoolAid and believes whatever lies the ex-Felon In Chief spouts. In this post-debate poll, Harris is now seen as significantly stronger than Biden, and more fit to lead the country. What is stunning and sad is that in the new Harris poll Trump beat Biden on EVERY one of 10 debate performance measures: Trump seemed more Presidential. Trump seemed more electable. Trump was a better communicator. Trump had better policy ideas. Trump knew the issues better. This is victory by default, since Biden was incapable of prosecuting the case against Trump. If a lie is not challenged, it becomes the truth. The good news is that in that new Harris poll, Trump leads by ONLY 4 points. The Harris poll has been one of the most consistently pro-Trump polls all year, and usually shows Trump doing a few points better than the RCP average of polls. So it makes two things very clear: 1. The race is close, and either side could win. 2. The biggest drag on Democrats and Biden in particular are concerns about the economy and inflation. To win, Democrats need to win the argument about how they want to grow the economy for the middle and working class - not the rich guys like Trump who want more Republican tax cuts to billionaires. That's the other post-debate poll that Factually Wrong @EmmetK doesn't care to be bothered with. Harris is just as strong, or weak, as Biden in the horse race polls. There is no magic bullet. The main reason it makes no sense to even seriously consider any race on that list other than the top two - Biden OR Harris against Trump - is that any other candidate would have to start raising money and building a campaign from scratch. The only person that could take over the Biden/Harris campaign - and Presidency - if Biden were to drop out or resign is Vice President Harris. It would be political suicide for Democrats to pick someone else who polls no better and has to start from scratch. Not to mention the massive intraparty bloodbath overlooking Kamala Harris would unleash. The good news in this to me is that MAGA is led by an unpopular cult leader who about half of America sees as a criminal and unfit lying narcissist. The Democrats are not a cult. They are a mostly well organized team that had many significant achievements in the last four years. Most of which Joe Biden personally fathered. And many of which required some bipartisan deals on infrastructure or gun control or LGBTQ rights (legal same sex marriage), to name three of many examples. Meanwhile, Republicans want to wage a holy war against the uterus and the most vulnerable members of the LGBTQ community. There was supposed to be a bloodbath when Nancy Pelosi resigned and the various progressive and centrist Democratic factions went to war. Instead, there was unity and a calm and professional transition. There was supposed to be a bloodbath when Joe Biden announced last year he would not run again., Media bed wetters kept saying the knives would come out and Team Harris and Team Newsom and Team Whitmer would start attacking each other. Never happened. If the Joe Biden of 2024 were even the Joe Biden of 2022, let alone 2012, this debate would not be happening. However it is resolved, party leaders know the last thing Democrats need is a bloodbath. And the first thing they need is unity. David Axelrod said on CNN right after Biden's miserable debate that Republicans better be careful what they wish for. Because if they get their wish, and Biden steps aside, that probably won't work well for Republicans, he said. He's right. If the problem to be solved is that we have an old leader who is unpopular, particularly among Blacks and minorities and young voters that Democrats need to win, replacing that leader with a younger Black and Asian American woman who is a prosecutor by training is one logical solution. If all the powers that be - Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, donors - decide Biden simply has to go, I would bet money they will tell him he has to resign and let Kamala run as the incumbent President. That is extremely unlikely to happen, because Biden will say no. But if the next month or two shows a continuously floundering Biden who is incapable of prosecuting the case against Trump, it may be the best solution to Biden's growing age problem.

Exactly!

I just posted the interview of Lichtman in a different thread before I read this. Here it is again. I think he is right, like every other time since 1984. (Abby Phillips below says "9 out of 10". In 2000 Lichtman predicted Gore would win. Which he did if you look at popular vote. Since 2000 he has stated that his predictions are based on the electoral college system, not the popular vote.) The hypothetical question I would like someone to ask Lichtman is this: what would happen if Biden resigned as President now, and by August President Harris was nominated near unanimously at the convention? Lichtman's argument is that by dumping Biden Democrats lose 2 of his 13 keys: incumbency, and no divisive party contest. Biden stepping aside as a candidate and having an open convention would potentially recreate 2016. He argues not having an incumbent and having a bitter party feud were two of the six keys that led to Hillary's downfall and Trump's win. A bitter bloodbath is almost a given if you start with the assumption that Harris has to go, too. Many Blacks and women would disagree. Probably with fatal consequences like in 2016. If Biden resigned now, it would seemingly avoid at least one of these two negatives. It would avoid a bitter party fight. Harris would be the incumbent, who actually led her potential Democratic primary opponents in almost every poll taken this year. A new poll shows her leading Newsom in a primary 39 to 18, with everyone else left in the dust. The same poll says voters view her as stronger than Biden, and more fit to lead the country. If Biden released all his delegates to the new President, there would be no fight. Harris also would seemingly meet the standards Lichtman sets for the advantages of incumbency. She could set the national agenda, which would be a continuation of what Biden and her have done so far. The media spotlight would shine on her, not Biden or Trump, as our new President. Arguably, she could defend the Biden/Harris agenda - and go after Trump's lies and macho bullshit - more forcefully than Biden now can. I am not arguing Biden should do this. And he almost certainly will NOT do it. But if the point of this exercise is stopping Trump from winning in 2024, it is the only alternative that makes any sense if the rare chance that Biden resigns under pressure actually comes to pass. If I believe what I read, the emerging plan is to put Biden in front of more one on one interviews and interactive town halls to prove the debate was just one bad night. That makes sense to me. Trump and Biden should both be given lots of rope. And lots of opportunities to hang themselves.

If someone is to blame for this, I blame the people who voted for Biden in the 2020 primary. It was obvious then he was old. That said, it was also obvious the #2 choice, Sanders, was also quite old. Anyone who thought it through could have predicted that almost every President runs for a second term. And the few who can but don't (Truman in 1952) or who quit (LBJ in 1968) usually help bring about defeat for their party. All of this was an argument for nominating someone like Harris or Buttigieg in 2020, so we had a younger incumbent in 2024. We didn't do that. So the circling of wagons around Biden now makes sense. Just like the circling of wagons around another old man, Trump, does for Team MAGA. Oh well. It's not a shocker that in 2020 people were more focused on beating Trump in 2020 than gaming out 2024. So, really, no one is to blame. Speaking of beating Trump, what the media bed wetters seem to ignore is that the magic bullet they want simply does not exist. A post-debate poll showed both Biden or Harris losing to Trump by 3 points (48 to 45). But every other potential candidate (Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, Shapiro) also loses to Trump by 2 to 3 points. So the argument is we should dump Biden and Harris, who have a massive campaign infrastructure in place, and replace them with someone who has no campaign infrastructure and is no more popular than Biden or Harris. Huh? There's a reason why the media bed wetters are media bed wetters, and not campaign strategists. Should Democrats replace Biden? Hear what historian thinks There's my buddy Allan Lichtman saying that the debate will have "zero" impact on the outcome. Just like Romney thrashing Obama by an even larger percentage in the first 2012 debate had "zero" impact on Obama winning. I think he is right. What's obvious is that Democrats are facing headwinds in keeping the White House in 2024. All year long polls have shown that is true regardless of who we nominate. I think we can mostly thank post-COVID global inflation for that. Almost every incumbent party (AMLO being a huge exception) in democracies across the world are facing the same problem. But it makes common sense that having an incumbent who got a lot of stuff done, and avoiding a party bloodbath, are probably wise ideas. The media bed wetters don't seem to get this. They seem to just want drama. What the bed wetters also don't seem to get is that all roads that involve dumping Biden lead to Kamala Harris. That poll I cited above says in a primary Harris would beat her closest opponent, Newsom, 2 to 1. Trashing a Black female Veep for a White male invites civil war among Democrats that would make the current bed wetting, or the bitter feelings between Clintonites and Sandernistas in 2016, look like child's play. If Democrats want to win in 2024, and they don't want Biden, they have to embrace Harris. The idea that we instead go in a smoke filled room and a rich White guy like Newsom or Pritzker somehow emerges makes no sense. It makes Democrats look like authoritarians. All that said, if the powers that be really have the power to dump Biden against his will, I would be very excited about a Harris/Whitmer ticket. Two strong women running against Trump would be energizing in exactly the way Biden is not. Whitmer on the ballot would help lock down Michigan, and probably other Midwest swing states as well. The way to do it would be for Biden to simply resign "for the good of the country" and let Harris run as an incumbent. I am not sure if that would meet Lichtman's incumbency key. But if Harris were suddenly President and Biden released all his delegates to her at the convention, it would avoid the party bloodbath that an open convention would invite. That is the best argument for dumping BOTH Biden and Trump now. Both are old men. And voters have good reason to think neither will be fit to govern in 2028. At age 82 in Jan 2025, Biden would have an over 1 in 3 probability of dying in office. At 78, Trump would have over a 1 in 4 chance. They would go into second terms with life expectancies of 7 and 8 more years, respectively. Kamala Harris would have a life expectancy of 24 more years. Biden resigning would immediately reverse the dynamic and make Trump the crazy old guy, while allowing both Harris and Biden to defend a good four year track record. The chances of Biden deciding to do this under pressure seem to be about 1 in 10, at best. To end where I started, the smart way to prevent this current bedwetting would have been to nominate Harris, or anyone younger, in 2020. Democrats did not do that. But just like in 2020 I think we have several good options to keep Trump from winning a second term. Lichtman's reading of his own Keys, which have been right every time since 1984, suggest either a President Biden or a President Harris would be likely to win in November.

There's a double entendre there. Trump is nuts. But if Biden starts talking to an empty chair, I don't think it's possible for him to stumble and mumble more than Clint Eastwood did. Or, here's a thought. If Trump is a no show, let Obama sit in the empty chair and talk to Trump's empty podium?

Our fact free friend not only has ZERO appreciation for facts. @EmmetK also seems to have no appreciation for political nuance, or irony. Most people who work on Capitol Hill have both. So @EmmetK just absolutely fails to get it. What a shocker! I suspect @EmmetK has not read the article, either. Facts are not something he requires to think he knows anything. That WSJ article is behind a pay wall, and I am not going to pay to read their bullshit. The UK Mail version I posted seems to hit all the main points. I'm guessing in more melodramatic terms than the staid WSJ. The irony is that the two main sources of this article are either dead, politically. Or they are alive thanks to Biden's Democrats. Kevin McCarthy can say Biden has one foot in the grave all he wants. But that is rich in irony. McCarthy has both feet in the grave. McCarthy is dead, politically. He is a loser, just like Trump will be in November. McCarthy, the loser with two feet in the grave, literally had to call Trump and bellow at him to call his MAGA attack dogs off before they literally killed McCarthy, or any of the cops they were beating the living shit out of. So who the fuck is loser Kevin McCarthy to talk? This is a joke. Mike Johnson is the other main source of the WSJ story about Biden being senile. Johnson has turned to be far more pragmatic than I would have guessed, seeing as how he was an anti-LGBTQ ideologue as a back bencher. Part of what I like about Johnson is he can cut deals with Biden on things like Ukraine aid. And when the MAGA radicals like Marjorie "I Am Bat Shit Crazy" Greene and Matt "I Fuck Teen Girls" Gaetz try to kill Johnson politically, Biden and the Democrats save his ass. So, again, who is Mike Johnson to speak about Biden being senile? But for Biden and his well organized team, Johnson would also have both feet in the grave by now. Who is he to pontificate about Biden? What a joke! All of this is rich in irony. The politically dead or near dead, thanks to MAGA radicals who like to beat the shit out of cops, are the ones saying Biden has two feet in the grave. And lets not even talk about DonaldTrump having one foot in a prison cell, unless his right wing SCOTUS ideologues bail his felon ass out.

False, my fact free friend. You just make statements with zero factual support. Trump is the MURDER candidate. MURDER surged 30 % under Trump in 2020 alone. Murder declined 13 % in 2023 under Biden, after declining in 2022 as well. You have no facts. The cult-like people who believe this bullshit, who are a significant minority of Americans, also believe the S & P is down for the year, and unemployment is at a 50 year high. It is not fact. It is a MAGA cult belief system. FBI data shows that violent crimes in the U.S. decreased in 2023

But he's God. Why would he need to? 😉

Then why in God's name would Gay voters want Donald "Murder" Trump? Please stop with the fact-free bullshit. I don't know if you are intentionally are spreading outright lies here, or whether you just like to fully and deeply ingest Trump's bullshit. Probably the latter, since you will buy his crap stock and believe his divisive lies. Trump is the Murder Candidate. Murder SOARED under Trump. A 30 % increase in murder rates in 2020 alone. Why would any Gay, or anyone, want more murder, more lies, more hate? Trump is a disgusting pro-murder, pro-gun liar. If you like to deeply and fully ingest his lies and bullshit, good for you. But don't expect us too. Murder rates dropped 6 % in 2022 according to the FBI. The initial estimate is a 13 % drop in the murder rate under Biden in 2023. So this is very simple. If you want a lot more murder, Trump is your guy. If you want a lot less murder, Biden got that done. Trump pays lip service to ideas that he knows 70 % or so of Americans now support, like same sex marriage. But he viciously and hatefully uses LGBTQ people who don't have 70 % approval to spew hate, spew lies, and create division and bile against LGBTQ people. Saying Trump is pro-LGBTQ is like saying he won the 2020 election. Or saying murder rates went down under Trump. If elected Trump will spread more hatred and division against the LGBTQ community, more lies, and more murder.

Duh, my fact free friend. That's a no brainer. If you are for death and murder and guns killing people, vote Trump. TRUMP IS THE CANDIDATE OF DEATH. IF YOU WANT MORE DEATH, VOTE TRUMP. TRUMP IS THE CANDIDATE OF BLOOD, MURDER, AND HORROR. IF YOU WANT BLOOD, MURDER AND HORROR, VOTE TRUMP. IF YOU LOVE GUN RAMPAGES AND INNOCENT DEAD PEOPLE, VOTE TRUMP. Donald "Death" Trump presided over a huge spike in murders in 2020. Donald "Lies" Trump wants us to believe his divisive bullshit about how he won the 2020 election. But it is a fact that blood, death, murder, and horror surged under Donald "Death" Trump in 2020, when he was POTUS. This is partly true because gun sales went through the roof in 2020, when COVID hit. That is not Trump's fault. But Donald "Death" Trump is one of the most loyal NRA whores to ever live. He loves pushing guns, and he loves pushing tax cuts for rich people like himself, while fools like @EmmetK buy his stock and his total bullshit and lies. Who would have ever guessed (other than guys like Mayor Eric Adams) that a "river of guns" (Adams' words) leads to a surge in gun death? This is the legacy of Donald "Death" Trump in 2020. DEATH. MURDER. HORROR. What happened under Biden, after Donald Trump's HISTORIC SURGE IN MURDER AND DEATH? The murder rate was UP 29.4 % in 2020, the last full year Donald "Death" Trump was POTUS, according to the FBI. The murder rate was UP 4.3 % in 2021, the first year Joe Biden was President, according to the FBI. The murder rate was DOWN 6.1 % in 2022 under Joe Biden's first full year, according to the FBI. The murder rate was DOWN an estimated 13 % in 2023, under Joe Biden, which is a historic reduction in murder. 'It is historic': US poised to see record drop in yearly homicides despite public concern over crime Which is a worse crime? The massive 29 % surge in murder, and guns, the last year Donald "Felon" Trump ruled America? Or the historic reduction in murder rates under Joe Biden? If you prefer more murder, more lies, more division, and more tax cuts for billionaires, you want to wire your brain and your pocketbook to the MAGA cult bullshit, for sure.

Yup. True. Biden sure fucked up the infrastructure bill. Trump got infrastructure bills passed every week. Biden doesn't even know what infrastructure is. Biden sure fucked up the CHIPs Act. All those factories being built in Arizona are due to the bipartisan bills Trump got passed. I could go on. Because it doesn't matter. You are immune to facts. What you can't wrap your mind around is reality. It is really that simple. In context, you HATE facts and you really HATE the truth. You are faced with the reality that this guy who predicted the winner of every POTUS race since 1984 is saying as of now Biden is likely to win. You HATE this fact. You have to deny it and even deny that the God you worship, Trump, was smarter than you and recognized Lichtman was right. And even personally congratulated him. But that is a fact you HATE. So what you need is a direct line of 100 % pure bullshit being fed into your brain nonstop. You have to be told that Biden can't even tell whether there is a chair where he is about to sit. You love the lies. You love the hate. You love the contempt. What you can't deal with is the FACT that Biden sat down in a chair. Which he is able to do perfectly fine on his own. Your brain is so addicted to bullshit and lies and hate that you are hopeless. If you and I can't agree about something as simple as Biden sitting in a fucking chair, of course we can't agree about important facts. Like who got an infrastructure bill passed, who got a CHIPs bill passed, who presided over an economy where average wealth went up 30 %, and who won the 2020 election. You are an addicted lost cause. Addicted to lies. Addicted to bullshit. Again, it is if you want us to know how ignorant you are and how little you care about facts and truth. The most important fact right now is that these polls are mostly irrelevant as a guide to who will win. You can't handle that fact. But if we go with your premise that these polls today are actually predictive, they still predict nothing. Right now, Trump is up 0.3 % over Biden in the RCP national polling average. He is up 0.1 % in Wisconsin. And 0.3 % in Michigan. I suppose you can say he is "leading" if you want. But statistically you can not get closer to a tie than 0.1 % . Maybe 0.0000000000000000000000000001 %. I mean, you just HATE facts. You HATE truth. In Pennsylvania Trump is up 2.3 % in the RCP average. But even there what you said is total ignorant bullshit. The margin of error in those polls is 3 to 6 %. So even if you want to believe those polls predict what will happen in November, the poll still tells us nothing. As Lichtman said, which is a fact you HATE, these state polls are particularly unreliable because they have no clue who will actually vote. Which is why in many races in the last few years Democrats outperform the polls by significant margins, as Lichtman said. Because informed Democratic voters are more likely to vote than less educated Trump voters. Your cult's whole path to victory is built on bullshit, hate, and lies. It is a FACT that if the people who vote in November are ONLY the best educated voters who actually voted in both 2020 and 2022, Biden will win in a landslide. It is a FACT that if the people who vote in November are ONLY the least educated voters who did not vote in either 2020 or 2022, Trump will win in a landslide. These are the same people who are cynical, they do not believe in democracy, they mistrust any institution and only believe in their cult, they think unemployment is at a 50 year high, and they think the S & P is down for the year. What does that tell us about Trump, and his cult? Lies. Bullshit. Hate.

Like our resident bullshit artist @EmmetK, who is full of lies and bullshit, it is just another example of the willful lies, the willful deceit, the willful bullshit. They know they are lying. They know it is bullshit. Thet don't care. Lies. Bullshit. Hate. It is what they do. It is who they are.

Yes, Biden sure blew it in 2020 debate. That's why he lost the election by 7 million votes, right? My fact free friend. Trump will spew all kinds of nonsense words, lies, and hate. At least he won't be spewing virus this time.

Proving yet again that you are immune to facts. You will take any load of shit Trump and the cult leaders feed you and devour it. Which "Republicans and Democrats" were quoted? Let's see. There's Kevin McCarthy. And Mike Johnson. Oh, and Kevin McCarthy. And Kevin McCarthy, too. Oh, and they did quote Mike Johnson. And I think Mike Johnson, too. Plus, they quoted Kevin McCarthy a lot. What party are they? The only Democrat I saw named was Anthony Blinken. But he was not quoted. The basic idea, as I said above, is Biden is demented because he called Xi a dictator. Among the cult, telling the truth is demented. Saying an election was stolen when you lost by 7 million votes is the truth. The thing Trump and the cult obviously has going for you is lots of young, Black, and Brown voters who tend to vote Democrat have been pained by inflation. The fact that inflation was higher in Mexico or Europe doesn't really matter to them. Since they don't have lots of wealth in stocks or homes with fixed rate mortgages, inflation stings in a way it simply does not when you don't have to worry about rentflation and your assets have grown by six or seven or eight figures under Biden. The Trump strategy is to hope they will open their mouths wide so you can shove this fact-free bullshit and hate and lies down their throat. Oh, plus tax cuts for the rich, take their health care away, and pretend climate change is not real. Oh, and abortion. I just don't think young people, Blacks, and Browns are that stupid. I don't think it's going to work. But you are a cultist. So you have unconditional faith in the bullshit, lies, and hatred.