stevenkesslar

Yup. True. Biden sure fucked up the infrastructure bill. Trump got infrastructure bills passed every week. Biden doesn't even know what infrastructure is. Biden sure fucked up the CHIPs Act. All those factories being built in Arizona are due to the bipartisan bills Trump got passed. I could go on. Because it doesn't matter. You are immune to facts. What you can't wrap your mind around is reality. It is really that simple. In context, you HATE facts and you really HATE the truth. You are faced with the reality that this guy who predicted the winner of every POTUS race since 1984 is saying as of now Biden is likely to win. You HATE this fact. You have to deny it and even deny that the God you worship, Trump, was smarter than you and recognized Lichtman was right. And even personally congratulated him. But that is a fact you HATE. So what you need is a direct line of 100 % pure bullshit being fed into your brain nonstop. You have to be told that Biden can't even tell whether there is a chair where he is about to sit. You love the lies. You love the hate. You love the contempt. What you can't deal with is the FACT that Biden sat down in a chair. Which he is able to do perfectly fine on his own. Your brain is so addicted to bullshit and lies and hate that you are hopeless. If you and I can't agree about something as simple as Biden sitting in a fucking chair, of course we can't agree about important facts. Like who got an infrastructure bill passed, who got a CHIPs bill passed, who presided over an economy where average wealth went up 30 %, and who won the 2020 election. You are an addicted lost cause. Addicted to lies. Addicted to bullshit. Again, it is if you want us to know how ignorant you are and how little you care about facts and truth. The most important fact right now is that these polls are mostly irrelevant as a guide to who will win. You can't handle that fact. But if we go with your premise that these polls today are actually predictive, they still predict nothing. Right now, Trump is up 0.3 % over Biden in the RCP national polling average. He is up 0.1 % in Wisconsin. And 0.3 % in Michigan. I suppose you can say he is "leading" if you want. But statistically you can not get closer to a tie than 0.1 % . Maybe 0.0000000000000000000000000001 %. I mean, you just HATE facts. You HATE truth. In Pennsylvania Trump is up 2.3 % in the RCP average. But even there what you said is total ignorant bullshit. The margin of error in those polls is 3 to 6 %. So even if you want to believe those polls predict what will happen in November, the poll still tells us nothing. As Lichtman said, which is a fact you HATE, these state polls are particularly unreliable because they have no clue who will actually vote. Which is why in many races in the last few years Democrats outperform the polls by significant margins, as Lichtman said. Because informed Democratic voters are more likely to vote than less educated Trump voters. Your cult's whole path to victory is built on bullshit, hate, and lies. It is a FACT that if the people who vote in November are ONLY the best educated voters who actually voted in both 2020 and 2022, Biden will win in a landslide. It is a FACT that if the people who vote in November are ONLY the least educated voters who did not vote in either 2020 or 2022, Trump will win in a landslide. These are the same people who are cynical, they do not believe in democracy, they mistrust any institution and only believe in their cult, they think unemployment is at a 50 year high, and they think the S & P is down for the year. What does that tell us about Trump, and his cult? Lies. Bullshit. Hate.

Like our resident bullshit artist @EmmetK, who is full of lies and bullshit, it is just another example of the willful lies, the willful deceit, the willful bullshit. They know they are lying. They know it is bullshit. Thet don't care. Lies. Bullshit. Hate. It is what they do. It is who they are.

Yes, Biden sure blew it in 2020 debate. That's why he lost the election by 7 million votes, right? My fact free friend. Trump will spew all kinds of nonsense words, lies, and hate. At least he won't be spewing virus this time.

Proving yet again that you are immune to facts. You will take any load of shit Trump and the cult leaders feed you and devour it. Which "Republicans and Democrats" were quoted? Let's see. There's Kevin McCarthy. And Mike Johnson. Oh, and Kevin McCarthy. And Kevin McCarthy, too. Oh, and they did quote Mike Johnson. And I think Mike Johnson, too. Plus, they quoted Kevin McCarthy a lot. What party are they? The only Democrat I saw named was Anthony Blinken. But he was not quoted. The basic idea, as I said above, is Biden is demented because he called Xi a dictator. Among the cult, telling the truth is demented. Saying an election was stolen when you lost by 7 million votes is the truth. The thing Trump and the cult obviously has going for you is lots of young, Black, and Brown voters who tend to vote Democrat have been pained by inflation. The fact that inflation was higher in Mexico or Europe doesn't really matter to them. Since they don't have lots of wealth in stocks or homes with fixed rate mortgages, inflation stings in a way it simply does not when you don't have to worry about rentflation and your assets have grown by six or seven or eight figures under Biden. The Trump strategy is to hope they will open their mouths wide so you can shove this fact-free bullshit and hate and lies down their throat. Oh, plus tax cuts for the rich, take their health care away, and pretend climate change is not real. Oh, and abortion. I just don't think young people, Blacks, and Browns are that stupid. I don't think it's going to work. But you are a cultist. So you have unconditional faith in the bullshit, lies, and hatred.

Funny. I thought it was all the bipartisan legislation. And the fact that everyone's wealth has grown about 30 % since he was elected. Then again, we have to factor in Trump Math, which is about as factual as Trump Facts. The Trump bullshit argument is that a 30 % increase in the average American's net worth under 3 years of Biden is meaningless, because meanwhile prices went up 30 %. So if my net worth went from $3 million to $4 million, because of the huge gains in the stock market and home price appreciation, I'm really no better off because I have to pay $1 a gallon for gas. Go figure. Of course, what I just said is Einstein level for Trump cult members who think the S & P is down for the year, and unemployment is at a 50 year high. Fact's don't matter. It is 100 % cult for MAGA. It is 100 % worship. Biden's cognitive decline: Washington DC insiders reveal worrying new details The WSJ article is behind a paywall. So I don't need to pay to read their propaganda. And my bet is most of the Trump cult doesn't even bother to read. Unless maybe if it is on Truth Social. I assume the Daily Mail takes the same mild WSJ propaganda and just tries to blow it into scandal. So the "facts" about "DC insiders" are interesting. The two prominent "DC insiders" mentioned are Republicans Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson. Shocking I say! Shocking! I mean, we know Johnson has a distaste for The Gays. Or at least he used to. But who would ever have guessed that McCarthy or Johnson had anything "worrying" to say about Joe Biden? The fact the WSJ and Daily Mail have to build their case based on partisan attacks on Biden proves that, unlike with Trump, there is simply no case. Speaking of Kevin McCarthy, there is absolutely nothing insane or demented or crazy or simply fucked up about douchebags like MTG and Matt "I Fuck Teens" Gaetz deposing Kevin McCarthy in a tortured shit show. But when Biden reads from notes or defers to staff and gets laws passed, that is full blow dementia. And they have a point. Trump would never read from notes, try to speak in a thoughtful manner, or defer to staff. He is God. His followers are a cult. He simply needs to be worshipped. The truly funny thing is that, having just argued that Biden is demented because he reads from notes and defers to staff, they then call him demented for doing the exact opposite: calling Xi a "dictator", despite diplomat Blinken's attempts to not state the obvious. Since when is telling the truth demented? Oh, that's right. DJT never tells the truth. But this is the same bullshit they tried with Obama, which failed. They could not call Obama senile, but they did call him ineffective. And then they turned around and said he ruled like a King. So we are to believe that Biden is crazy both for often deferring to staff, which Trump would never do, but also for calling out Xi bluntly, even if it drives diplomats on his staff like Blinken crazy. This is just more fact free bullshit from the cult. What a surprise!

Well, if that is what Gay porn is today, I'm turning str8. 🤢

I don't think we should judge Trump harshly, just because he slept with Mike Pence. 😉

What happened to the rule of law in America? America is ruined. The rule of law is broken. Billionaire CEO, real estate investor on impact of Trump verdict: 'Nobody wants to do business' in NYC And it's not just New York. The whole world is aghast at America. The whole galaxy! This is the biggest injustice done to anyone, ever, in all human history. And it is Joe Biden's fault! It only starts in New York. When the verdict was announced people in California started committing mass suicide. There were mental breakdowns and thousands of fatal car crashes within minutes of the verdict. In my own neighborhood, I could hear deep human wailing. "The rule of law! The rule of law! What happened to the rule of law!" Back in the day, you used to be able to have extramarital sex with porn stars and pay them off when you ran for President. Now, with the breakdown of the rule of law, the Dementia Joe mob will come after you unmercifully if you do that. Back in the day, you used to be able to steal elections you lost by seven million votes. Now, thanks to Democratic Marxists who are destroying democracy, you can't steal elections anymore. What the fuck happened to America? It makes me cry and shit on myself. Speaking of which, I have personally shit on the desk of Bob Dole. I have personally peed all over the carpet of Tom Foley, when he was House Speaker. In the 1980's and 1990's I think I broke the arms, legs, or hands of at least half a dozen Capitol Security officers, and ransacked the desks of dozens of Senators. Now that we have this huge injustice in America, and the breakdown of the rule of law, you just can't do these things anymore. What happened to Mom, the flag, and apple pie? This is bipartisan cruelty. Whether it is Nancy Pelosi getting all riled up about her liberal carpet, PAID FOR BY US TAXPAYERS, or Kevin McCarthy verbally assaulting Donald Trump because patriots visited the Capitol, America has just gone pure apeshit. Let's not even get into calling some worthless RINO bureaucrat just to ask him to find thousands of votes so you can steal a state election. You can't even do THAT anymore, thanks to the breakdown of the rule of law. America is ruined. We need a Fuhrer. We need to restore the blood of the Reich.

Thanks for being honest. You don't care. You for sure don't care about your genocidal monster. Or the genocide of Ukrainians. I thought you might care about The Gays. Guess not.

Yup. Traditional values. Speaking of which. I know bigotry and hate is small ball compared to genocide. But it is another thing about your genocidal piece of shit monster that I just don't care much for. Russian court bans ‘LGBT movement’ as ‘extremist’ Russia’s Supreme Court has issued a ban on the activities of the ‘international LGBTQ movement’ in the latest crackdown on gay, lesbian and transgender rights in the country. Who knew genocide and the murder of women and children were traditional family values? And you wonder why the world looks at Russia with contempt and horror?

Oops. Now we're in the 18th Century. I know you are trying really hard to make the best of the horror that is Russia today, sweetie. But please try to be less pathetic.

Yes, the reason the whole world hates the US is because of things that happened in 1945, long before most of us were born. Or was it things that happened in 1865? Let me ask Kamala Harris and get back to you. Silly. Because Genocide Man has to sell all kinds of stuff to countries like India for real cheap to have enough money to turn Russians into fertilizer. Yeah, it's a fucked up way to run a country. But who ever thought Genocide Man was a good leader? I think China likes Russia pretty much, too. Everyone likes to buy stuff for cheap. And they can use your sadistic little pit bull for all kinds of geopolitical mischief. So as long as Master Xi needs his pit bull and can get cheap stuff, you're good with them. Woo hoo! Personally, I have no problem if Russia makes lots of money selling its resources for cheap as the world world looks at this genocidal piece of shit country and decides whether we just hate it, or want to buy cheap stuff from it, as it turns it people into fertilizer. It is good for the US. And good for China, too. As long as Master Xi can keep his sadistic pit bull under control. Ukraine suffers horribly. But you could fucking care less, since you're for genocide. You're good at Murder Math. By any ranking US GDP is about 10 times that of Russia. So every year that the US and Russia grow 2 or 3 %, it means we are ten times bigger than you to start with, and we grow ten times bigger and faster. Every year. And this is the money Genocide Man desperately needs to pay for his people being turned into fertilizer. You sure got a genius of a monster running your sad little country. Last I checked, people are kind of not cool with being turned into fertilizer. So Ukrainians want to kill Russians. And lots of Russians want to kill Putin, if they could. Not to mention the whole world looks down on Russia with contempt and horror. This is why so many experts think Russia as a federation will be history in a decade or two. Do you ever wonder which parts of Russia will be China in the future? Meanwhile, have fun making money selling your stuff for cheap, and turning Russians into fertilizer. Btw, do you guys think you can ramp up this thing so that maybe 1 million Russians a year or so can be turned into fertilizer? I know you have only so many prisons, even though your murder rate is sky high. And even with Genocide Man being a monster and all, there are only so many ethnic minorities that want to be paid to become grass. When Biden is re-elected there may be a problem in terms of this whole turning Russians into grass thing. I guess we have time to figure it out, though. By the way, none of this sadism and genocide is happening in 1945, or 1865. This is the horror happening in Russia today. Let's at least stick with the 21st Century, okay?

You're so predictable. Just like your genocidal monster. I of course knew you'd attack me that way. Which is my point. I don't have to be an expert. And this isn't rocket science. Everybody in the world now wants Russia to fail. Except Master Xi, who will use his sadistic pit bull and happily let Russia become weaker as his own economy flails. And India, who can get cheap stuff from Russia as it heads down the hell hole to breaking up. Your country is not even your own anymore. You are a product of China. Woo hoo! Everyone in the world can see clearly your genocidal sadist is flailing around as he pays Russians to kill and be turned into fertilizer. Your brightest people flee, and your poorest people become grass. Nobody wants to be Russian. Not even most Russians, probably, if they could speak honestly. Have fun with that while it lasts. Hope you're at least one of the ones making money off misery, death, and cruelty.

Michelle Obama’s mother, Marian Robinson, dies at 86 I love this "Gal's Interview", in which Gayle King really captured the love and respect between Mom and daughter. Marian Anderson: "My saying is, when I grow up I want to be like Michelle Obama." Who was whose rock?

And here is Lichtman in a new interview, answering your question directly. Trump’s guilty verdict will have ‘cataclysmic’ impact on election outcome I'm not sure that YouTube poster's headline accurately reflects what Lichtman said. I guessed above that the correct technical answer is it doesn't matter. Lichtman said it falls outside the context of his 13 keys. But he reiterated that a lot would have to change for Biden to lose. And there is every reason to think this helps Biden, not Trump. If it helped Trump, why would he be in whining loser bitch mode? We know that whenever Trump whines like a losing bitch, it is because he knows he is losing. Perceptions of Trump Guilty Verdict - HarrisX Overnight Poll - 31 May I think that documents why this is bad news that will keep being bad news for Trump. To put it in context, 538 posted two new polls today. Both of which presumably measure reactions after the verdict. In one (Ipsos) Biden is ahead by two points, and in one Trump is ahead by two points. That is the definition of tossup. This Harris poll is the one in which Trump is up by two points. So if this particular poll has a bias, it would probably be slightly favorable to Trump. It's also probably worth noting that in one version of the horse race question in this poll there was a 50/50 split. Trump only gets to a 51/49 lead when you add leaners. So this is very fragile. It's also worth noting that in this Harris poll, which is more favorable to Trump than the other poll, 86 % of Republicans will vote for Trump, and Independents split narrowly for Biden 51/49. So any small erosion this causes among Republican and Independent Trump supporters over the next five months will matter. That reinforces what Lichtman says in that interview. This is a tossup. 57 % of all voters, and 60 % of Independents, say Trump is "mostly guilty" in this Harris poll. Only 19 % of Republicans agree. 54 % of all voters, and 60 % of Independents, believe Trump received a fair trial. Only 16 % of Republicans agree. 56 % of all voters, and 62 % of Independents, think the 12 person jury was fair to Trump. Only 22 % of Republicans agree. My point is that this is kind of MAGA v. everyone else. All this anti-US and anti-judicial system nonsense he is spouting about a "rigged trial" and how this is a Biden witch hunt just doesn't resonate for most voters. Most voters think Trump got a fair trial from 12 ordinary people. And he is mostly guilty. The MAGA/Reichpublican line is that this is rigged, America is broken, and extraordinary measures are needed for our Fuhrer to restore the Reich, or whatever. That shit just scares most people. We are going to be talking about this for months. And it is not going to help mein Liebling. Oops. As much as I love him, I mean mein Fuhrer.

At one point in response to something I wrote, you said I don't really understand Russia. That is largely true. I don't claim to understand Russia. I don't really want to understand Russia. Because thinking about it makes me sad. Who really wants to think about how the families of poor ethnic Russians are paid a lot to send a husband or son to Ukraine, to be processed into fertilizer, so that corrupt Putin cock suckers in Moscow can get rich in a crooked war economy? It's sad. That said, I understand Putin is a product of the USSR. And that he will be viewed by history as one of the corrupt leaders who presided over the breakup of the Russian Federation. I think history is going to teach your genocidal leader a lesson. Just like the USSR learned a lesson. You don't understand the US. Don't pretend to. If you think 75 % of Independents will vote for either Biden or Trump, you are basically saying, "I'm one of those totally ignorant people who just says stupid shit on the internet." However this breaks, Independents will make a huge difference at the margin. But it will be statistically small. So you don't know WTF you are talking about. Can't blame you, really. About half of Americans - mostly Trump supporters - think unemployment is at a 50 year high. (It's at a 50 year low.) And that the S & P 500 is way down for the year. (It's way up.) So join Club Ignorance. Trump supporters - at least the MAGA sect - seem to like Genocide Man, and his genocide. You'll fit right in. Independents will break one way or the other, but it will be by narrow margins. And in this toss up race (it is a tossup today, around the start of June) that narrow margin may be determinative. In 2008 Obama won Independents 52/44 in a landslide victory. But he narrowly lost them to Romney in 2012, including in most swing states. Trump won Independents 46/42 in 2016. Biden won Independents 54/41 in 2020. So no candidate will get 75 % of the Independent vote. And I think the best explanation for why Obama won in 2012 despite losing the Independent vote is that Blacks and young voters turned out in droves and supported him. Same as they did for Biden in 2020. Increasingly, at least among voters under 40, "Independent" usually means I do not align with any political party, but I tend to vote Democratic. Or, at least, used to. Which is why the Black vote and the youth vote matter so much. No one knows who will actually turn out, and which way they will break. None of this matters in Russia, of course. Elections for Putin are rigged, the judicial system is rigged, murder rates are higher, and journalists and political opponents who give Putin trouble often end up dead.

Aw! How sad! A new poll shows Biden two points ahead of Trump. But that's within the poll's margin of error. I'm sure Dementia Joe is stilling losing. Or is it Genocide Joe? Whatever. Biden sucks und mein Hauptman is going to win. Exclusive: One in 10 Republicans less likely to vote for Trump after guilty verdict, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Lying scumbag media! See how they all try to cover Dementia Joe's ass! This is bullshit. These are America hating lies. This is a conspiracy. Mein Fuhrer Leader God Donald J. Trump and his Reich are what everyone wants and needs. Not Genocide Joe! Real patriots love chaos! Real patriots love it when NOTHING GETS DONE! God bless eight Reichpublican Senators for saying they will agree to NOTHING and do NOTHING with Democrats because of their hateful deceptive America destroying abuse of justice with this verdict. Americans HATE IT when there is all this bipartisan nonsense about gun control or building chip factories or whatever. Americans love DO NOTHING Reichpublicans, unless what they are doing is cutting taxes for rich victims like Mein Fuhrer Donald J. Trump or cutting Obamacare for the illegal Black and Brown scumbag filth. I mean the illegals, who are taking our jobs and housing, not the Blacks and Hispanics we need to vote for the least racist Fuhrer in America. This is bullshit!

Damn! That was quick! Thanks Randy.

One asshole, two questions, three videos, four verdicts. Question one. Now that a jury has confirmed that the whiny ass lying scumbag asshole is guilty, like we all knew he was, can't we just speed dial the other three verdicts? I have to believe even his cult tires of the whining lies. Question two. When do we get the third "DJT Does Crime The Best! " version of Randy Rainbow's Cell Block Tango?

No, silly. Not at all. cult /kəlt/ noun a misplaced or excessive admiration for a particular person or thing. "a cult of personality surrounding the leaders"

Funny. Republicans painted themselves into a corner when they nominated Trump. Wanna bet 100 shares of DJT over this? The reason I say let's bet DJT stock is it will be worthless soon, anyway. So it's a gentleman's bet. Trump will lose, because the MAGA cult nominated the worst candidate they could. If the goal was to beat Biden. Your problem is the exact opposite. About 70 % of Republicans will stand behind Trump regardless of indictments, idiocy, or shooting someone on 5th Ave. Why not? It's a cult. The problem with this approach is that 70 % of Trump adoring Republicans are maybe one-third or so of Americans. Which is why you folks are moving further and further down the slippery slope of wanting lies fascism Reich-like rule authoritarianism minority rule. But thank you for confirming a point I have made repeatedly. There is no evidence in any poll that Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, or any Democrat who wants to be POTUS would do any better than Biden. So all this nonsense about how Biden should drop out or be ditched so that someone who can win can replace him is just that ............... nonsense. Team MAGA is doing Biden another kindness, which I deeply appreciate. It's becoming clearer and clearer to me that the reason (name any Democrat running for Senate in a swing state, plus Brown, plus Tester] are ahead in polls is because people prefer the populist working class politics they articulate. It is equally clear that the reason Biden can't close the deal is a lot of voters, especially young voters, are feeling the pain of rentflation and high mortgages rates, especially. It's quite possible that absolutely nothing Biden can do will give them a reason to vote FOR him. So what Biden needs is for Trump to give young voters a reason to vote AGAINST him. Trump is doing that exceptionally well, as always. In some polls up to 10 % of young voters say they won't vote for Trump if he is found guilty. We'll all know soon enough. That is one I would not bet on, and am curious to see how it plays out. Thank you for also confirming that it is just stupid to expect anyone associated with Trump or MAGA to demonstrate any logic, whatsoever. First, Trump was behind in the polls almost all the time in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Yet he won in 2016. And you guys want to push the cop-abusing lie that he won in 2020. So it's just illogical to argue that being 1 % behind in the poll averages in May means you will lose. The even dumber as shit thing is that it does make common sense that if you are 20 % behind, you will probably lose. But if the idea is that if you are 1 % behind, you should drop out or be kicked out, it literally means that any candidate who is not winning - including Trump in 2016 and 2020 - should have been ditched. It just makes no fucking sense. Why am I not surprised?

Skyrocketing rents and home prices may be pivotal in the 2024 election And there you have it. I'm glad Democrats and the left-of-center media have finally caught on. It is telling. Most politicians and reporters probably own homes. If not, they certainly make decent incomes. So if there were a poll of politicians and reporters, I doubt they would say housing is their personal "pain point". But as this argument documents very nicely, it is for lots of working class and young Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Whites. They don't really say why they picked Las Vegas to profile. Other than it has a particularly bad housing supply shortage. It's also the swing state Biden won in 2020 that he is now usually furthest behind in, in polls. It is kind of the perfect storm. As the article says, the workforce structure in Vegas is such that many of the most common jobs don't pay enough for the people who work them to be able to afford rent. Which is going through the roof. Ouch! There is some part of me that feels if the Democrats, my party, is so fucked up that they can not figure this out, they deserve to lose. The only problem with my idea is that Trump and Republicans won't solve the problem, ether. This is an interesting issue for Trump, who is a real estate guy and builder. To me, it really exposes what an absolute and total fraud and piece of shit he was and will be as a leader. There was a brief moment in late 2016 and early 2017, right after Trump won, when all kinds of lefty journalists were freaking out. The narrative went like this: Oh my God! What if Trump is secretly a centrist? What if he is secretly competent and effective? What if he can actually get an infrastructure bill passed? I thought, Geez. That would be a nice problem to have. My point is that, had any of that been true, the most obvious thing in the world is The Smartest Builder In The Galaxy, Ever surely could have figured out how to get the federal government to stimulate massive affordable housing development. By Spring 2017 all the bed wetting journalists figured out that Trump doesn't exist, and never did. He is a narcissistic old gas bag and TV star and con man. Democrats have been there and done this before. Black homeownership was higher than it has ever been in 2000, thanks to Clinton taking all this public/private partnership stuff grassroots CDCs had been building gradually for decades and putting it on steroids through a federal focus on affordable and fair and sound mortgage lending. Black and Latino and working class White homeownership rates - and net worth - soared. The right wing loves to blame Clinton for subprime and 2008. But they are completely ignorant. Clinton left office in 2001. The mortgages made on his watch had nothing to do with subprime, which started in earnest when W. was POTUS and the Republicans ran everything. Most important, the built in reality check was the 2001 recession. If all these crappy mortgages had been made in 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000, the 2001 recession was the perfect time for them to go belly up. It didn't happen. My point is that the federal government, under Clinton, did what Republicans always say they want. It used capitalism and the free market, with a push from the federal government and community groups, to build wealth and economic stability among aspiring working class people of every race. If Democrats can not figure out how to do this now, they are stupid and lack vision. And they deserve to lose. Yes, this is complicated. But so was taking out Hitler. So was putting a man on the moon. So was Trump himself pushing for a vaccine that, in record time, took out a virus that killed 1 million Americans. Compared to those three things, and many more, this is a piece of cake. People love construction jobs. Home Depot loves selling building supplies. What is the problem? I think the sad diagnosis, which is why so many Americans don't like their choices, is that neither Trump nor Biden will get this done. Trump has proven he lacks the political skills. What surprises me a little, as a builder with grand ideas, is that he doesn't have the vision to do this. Call me biased. But I think it is because his main vision is of him being The Big Guy who sits behind the desk and is adored as he lies and pats himself on the back. Biden definitely has the political skills, as he has proven time and again. I doubt he has the vision. I hope if he wins a second term I am wrong. Because he should be able to do something like what Clinton did 30 years ago. My best guess is that Biden will turn out to be right, that he is a transitional figure. Nobody young really sees him as their leader. Even if they are the ones who elected him, and will re-elect him. That Youth Vote survey of top issues - all about kitchen table economics - screams for a new vision that is more like Bernie Sanders than Donald Trump. And at some point Millennials and Gen Z will be the predominant voting bloc in America. So even if Biden wins my guess is the pressure will just build for some new post-Trump and post-Biden leader and vision to come along in 2028.

Thanks, Allan. 😉 Speaking of which.

So I will add a poll, a quote, and of course another long rant. The survey: Harvard Youth Poll The quote: I bold-faced that last quote, because that is probably what the 2024 election turns on. If you are not a policy wonk like @EmmetK and I, Della Volpe is the guy who everyone talks to about the youth vote. So in 2022 Stephanie Ruhle had him and his young partners in crime on TV all the time. He predicted that young voters would turn out, and have something to say about this hypothetical red wave. Everything he said in 2022, and 2020, pretty much turned out to be spot on. I would not dismiss him when he says the choice between Trump and Biden "isn't necessarily close." So if you ask me why Biden won in 2020, I'd say, "Young voters." If you asked me who stopped the red wave in 2022, I'd say, "Young voters." If you ask me why Biden is hurting in the polls now, I'd say, "Young voters." If you ask me why Biden will win in 2024, I'd say, "Young voters." If I am wrong and Biden loses in 2024, why might I be wrong? Young voters. We don't have a crystal ball about what young voters will do in five months. But we do have "facts" about what they are saying now. And those "facts" are just plain fucked up. So if anyone understands the facts, can you please explain them to me? The Harris Poll says that Trump is beating Biden by 5 points. It also says that among 18-24 year olds Trump is beating Biden 40/39, with 16 % going to RFK. 25 to 34 year olds are also split, 42/41 for Biden, with 13 % going for RFK. So are we saying a young cohort that voted 2 to 1 against Trump or Trump/MAGA candidates or policies in 2018, 2020, and 2022 are now evenly split? I just don't believe it. In that hyperlink above Della Volpe says a lot of these polls now talk to a sample size of maybe 200 young voters and think they got it right. Harris has a sample size of 277 voters aged 18-24. Call me a skeptic. You Gov's most recent poll says Trump is beating Biden by 1 %. So, basically, a statistical tie. They say 18-29 year olds are for Biden over Trump 41/27, with 5 % for RFK. A 13 percent margin is small compared to the whopping pro-Democratic youth vote margins of 2018, 2020, or 2022. But it seems closer to the reality of what happened during those recent elections. YouGov says 30-40 year olds are for Biden are for 43/32,with 6 % for RFK. The difference between these two sets of "facts" about young voters pretty much explains the difference between whether Trump is leading Biden by something like five points, or the race is a toss up. And none of this is about some prediction Lichtman is making about November. This is simply about the "facts" of what young voters say they plan to do right now. In one reality, all these young people who were firmly against Trump, his candidates, and his policies by up to 2 to 1 margins for three elections in a row are now split, and have fond memories of how well Trump governed. In the other, they are still against Trump by pretty wide margins. Huh? So what does Della Volpe say, since they do this "more robust" poll of young people every year, that he says is more accurate? That's all over the map, too. Again, I'd read the whole report. But this chart shows why nobody knows what is going to happen: You can have your reality any way you like it. If we are talking about all young people, the results look more like what Harris is saying: they are nearly split between Biden and Trump. And by double digit percentages they plan to vote for someone other than those two. But these are the ones who get their politics from rants on TikTok and think the S & P is down for the year and unemployment is at a 50 year high, not low. If we are talking about likely voters, the 43/30 split for Biden is a lot like the 41/27 split for Biden YouGov is reporting. Again, unless what happens in every single election in my lifetime changes, at least half the voters who say they are going to vote for RFK, Stein, or West in polls in May will actually not do so in November. How likely is it that people who prefer West or Stein in May, and voted against Trump or his candidates in 2018, 2020, or 2022, will vote for Trump in 2024? I ain't gonna hold me breath for that. If you read the full survey above, in a two way race Biden had a 19 point lead over Trump among 18-29 year old voters. So a lot of RFK/Stein/West voters today will probably be Biden voters in November, even if they're holding their nose. The reason I am gonna hold my breath is that issue poll above. It confirms everything Ramit Sethi said in the interview on inflation I posted above. Trump might win. And the reason he might win is complicated. Young voters are not happy about inflation, or housing, or the economy. In their own eyes, it's clear they have better reasons to vote against Trump than they have to vote for Biden. If you are young and Black, the #1 issue is housing. Which probably means the rent is too high. If you are young and Hispanic, housing is the #2 issue, tied with affordable health care. The only priority that is slightly higher is gun violence. Young White voters do say inflation is their #1 issue, with healthcare #2 and housing in the middle of the list. I'm really curious what "inflation" means to young White voters who say it is their top issue. The part about rent and sky home home prices, I get. But, like Sethi said in the interview, I doubt most young voters or any voters really know what they paid for milk or bread in 2020 or 2016. And they are still somehow managing to buy the same milk and the same bread. This is why every poll between now and November could be wrong. Who knows what these voters will actually do? Including whether they will actually vote? My main reason for thinking Lichtman will be right again, other than his perfect track record, is that I do agree with him that elections really are about governing. And not just bullshit There is no evidence most young people, at least those who actually have voted, actually liked how Trump governed. More important, it's early days. But I see no evidence that Trump is offering young voters reason to think he will govern in a way they like in 2025, if they elect him. Blacks interested in affordable health care? Hispanics interested in reducing gun violence? Give me a break. Let's not even get started on women and abortion. Even by Trump standards, it seems rich to go to New York City, where he started his real estate career by being sued by the Justice Dept. for racial discrimination in rental housing, to tell people it doesn't matter if you are Black or Brown. We're all Americans. But let's give him a break. People change. Or, at least, young voters don't know, or care, what the fuck he did in 1973. So is Trump, a builder, proposing to build millions of units of affordable housing, like Biden did in Build Back Better and Sethi thinks young people want and need? Is he, like RFK Jr., saying that if banks can't offer you affordable 3 % fixed rate mortgages, the government will - at no expense to taxpayers? Nope. He's saying Black and Brown Americans should vote for him, because Black and Brown immigrants are trying to take your housing and jobs away. And they need to be deported. Man, woman, and child. Okay, he did not literally spell out that most of the immigrants he wants to deport happen to be Black or Brown. But they are. So I'm not sure how well that resonates as housing policy for young Black and Hispanic voters who actually see it as their top issue. And are not happy about rentflation and mortgage rates under Biden. Right wing Goebbels wannabe Mollie Hemingway just called this "Trump's unbridled multi-ethnic optimism", as opposed to Biden's "race-baiting rhetoric." I do think this is a debate Biden wants. Because I don't think Trump wins this debate with young Black and Brown voters. We'll see.