stevenkesslar

Note: Dan Crenshaw is a Republican U.S. House member. From a Politico article on negotiations over an immigration compromise and Ukraine/Israel aid. Again, I am not making this argument. Compromise-oriented Republicans are making this argument. I noted in a different thread that RFK, Jr. has some interesting arguments on this issue. Politically, he is playing for the middle. He takes most of Trump's "secure the border" goals, but defines illegal immigrants in a humanitarian way. I find that helpful. My point is that if Crenshaw is right and hundreds of thousands more people cross the border illegally, at least we can say they are people fleeing for their lives in many cases. So this level of illegal immigration is clearly unpopular and a massive pain in the ass. But I don't feel like it's evil to give people a chance to live and prosper. Even if they are a huge pain in the ass. This all fits with Reagan's vision of a shining city on the hill, and his immigration compromise law. That comes way closer to my definition of evil. And traitorous. And definitely murderous. What some Republicans are saying is we would rather give Biden a political loss, even if it makes it easier for Murderous Vlad to kill women and children in Ukraine. I think it is fair to call that murderous. In outcome, if not intent. And possibly traitorous as well. My World War II veteran Reagan Republican Dad, who lived long enough to be disgusted by President Trump, would be shocked that his Republican Party would throw democracy and Ukraine under the bus. Why? So that Trump can win and cut a deal with Murderous Vlad.

That is correct. It is all that really matters TO YOU. You are a zealot. You drank the Koolaid. So of course you'll believe whatever you want. And whatever Trump says. The hostages had every right to break the bones and crush the skulls of the cops who were trying to stop Trump's patriots from saving democracy. Whatever! Name one election where the polls on third parties turned out to be accurate? I won't repost what I did in a different thread. But there's lots of proof that many voters, Gen Z and Blacks in particular, are saying they will vote for RFK Jr. or West now. It's a bit less than a year from when they vote. Right now they are pissed at Biden (Palestinian baby killer!) or disappointed (high prices!). Trump took the lead right around when Israel starting bombing the shit out of Palestinian women and children. But all evidence from all past elections suggests something like half of the RFK/West crowd will switch back to Biden once they actually have to choose between Biden and Trump. But "all evidence from all past elections" is simply not a concept that interests you. If I want to discuss why cops should be beaten savagely to protect democracy and glorify Trump, that would interest you. Doug Schoen, whose most recent claim to fame is that he advised Mike Bloomberg on how to blow a part of his fortune making an ass out of himself in 2020, recently suggested that maybe 2024 will be like 1980. Reagan, deemed unelectable, wiped Carter's ass over inflation. Maybe Trump is the new Reagan? Sure. Just like Bloomberg was the new Reagan in 2020. Whatever! Fun concept. Especially for fact free thinkers. But Trump is actually the new Carter. He did lose in 2020, just like Carter lost in 1980. That's just a fact. But don't tell that to the hostages who beat the living shit out of cops because Trump won. Whatever! If we are dealing in facts, not lies and cruelty, we know this. In Nov. 1980, when Reagan kicked Carter's ass, his core argument was that the misery index (inflation plus unemployment) was 20.1. In Nov. 2016, when Trump won, the misery index was 6.4. In Nov. 2020, when Trump was fired, the misery index was 7.9 - higher than when Trump took office. Today, the misery index is 7.0, lower than when Biden took office. So there was more misery when Trump ended than when he started. Which helps explain why he lost. And why cops had to be savagely attacked based on Trump's democracy-killing lies. Which created more misery. At least for the cops. And for democracy. There is less misery today than when Biden took office. That's a fact, if we want to use Reagan's argument correctly. So, again, Trump is actually the old Carter. He lost in 2020 because under him misery went up. Trump is a loser. That is just a fact.

If Trump wins, that is why. So you have a point. But you're of course NOT factually correct. You never are. More than half of voters say they are worse off under Biden: poll According to that poll, 55 % feel worse off and 45 % feel better off. That's not good for Biden. But it's not horrible. Compared to polls a year ago, when inflation was peaking and scary, I think Biden is in a slightly better position. If inflation stays down, interest rates start to go down, and the stock market keeps going up, he'll be better off still in November. What we don't know is whether voters will feel better or worse off under Trump fascism, Trump cruelty, Trump lies, Trump rape, and Trump wanton criminal behavior. Cops might feel better that lots of their bones will be broken by Trump supporters freeing "hostages." And other fun democracy-building activities like that, which make me want to cry. My read of 2018, 2020, and 2022 is that somehow this factors in to voter decisions. And it hurt Trump. A lot. Here's proof. If it was just about feeling better off, Trump would have won in 2020. It is why he won in 2016. There's a mystery of polling in 2020 no one really talks about, or maybe even knows. But it does not bode well for Trump in 2024. In 2016 31 % of people said they were better off than four years ago, 27 % worse off, and 41 % the same. In 2016, when Trump won, the people who felt better off voted 3 to 1 for Clinton. And the people who felt worse off broke roughly 3 to 1 for Trump. Makes sense. And that happens every 4 years, based on CNN exit polls. If people feel better off, they vote overwhelmingly for the incumbent party. In 2016, and almost every year going back to 2000, the people who feel the same as four years ago tend to split their vote about 50/50. In 2016 47 % of the "same as four years ago" voters went for Clinton, 45 % for Trump. In 2020 41 % felt better off than four years ago, and only 20 % felt worse off. Once again, better off went about 3 to 1 for Trump, the incumbent. Worse off went about 3 to 1 for Biden. But compare the percentage that felt better off to 2016. With so many more people feeling better off than 2016, and so many fewer feeling worse off, Trump should have won, right? The inexplicable thing is that in 2020 the 39 % who said they were the same as four years ago DID NOT split 50/50. They broke about 2 to 1 for Biden. That was very different than the pattern going back at least 20 years. That alone explains why Trump lost. People who felt no better or worse off preferred Biden 2 to 1, for some reason. Why? Those are facts. But my theory is that all the other stuff about Trump just felt wrong to people. And that was BEFORE the Jan. 6th cop bone breaking. That was before all the indictments over trying to steal an election and shit all over democracy. Of course, we all got the memo that Donald Trump Hillary Clinton is so far ahead in the polls that of course she MUST win, right? 😯 Remember that? Right now Trump is ahead of Biden 1.6 % in the RCP average. Hillary led Trump by at least that much for most of 2016. Biden was only half a point behind Trump as recently as Jan. 10. And before the "bomb Palestinian kids" stuff Biden had a small lead over Trump in the averages. So who is saying it's inevitable the raping fascist cop bone breaker has to win? Give me a break!

One of the most beautiful parts of how God Made Trump is that the rape is not limited to Trump himself. Granted, Trump is bar none the most sexually enticing human being in the entire universe, for all eternity. But even Jesus himself could make only so many loaves of bread. Even Trump, with his enormous cock and virility, can't feed his entire flock. No. Trump has created a rape culture party. So that all God's creatures can rape each other. Let's say it's Make America Rape Again. Johnson flails as Republicans demand consequences for conservative hijacking This is a sex-oriented website. I used to be a paid whore. So can I just be blunt? Marjorie Taylor Greene is going to rape Mike Simpson while Speaker Johnson, a true friend of the LGBTQ community, watches. And if Johnson doesn't like it, Greene and pals will just shove it right down Speaker Johnson's throat. That is what the rape party is. That is what the rape party does. Not only do they rape women, and democracy. The rape each other. Simpson, an old school fool, does not understand this. He's about to get raped and learn. And since Taylor is a woman, that means Simpson can expect to get a new budget deal shoved up his ass, basically. Or maybe she can get a strap on budget deal. Speaker Johnson himself will flail while Trumpy Republicans rape and rape and rape each other. And maybe break the bones of more cops, just to keep it all interesting. This is why we're all happy God Made Trump. Then again, this is why the House will be Democratic in 2025, and Biden will beat Trump. Most people don't like rape, extreme politics, and chaos.

Duh! But seriously, @EmmetK. You're going after the low hanging fruit here. Biden supporters have to be almost as senile as he is. Why bother? Trump is the stable genius. On the first day, he ends the Ukraine War. On the second day, he prevents World war III. On the third day, we all notice our penis has grown 3" larger. On the fourth day, we get to rape whoever we want. Quickly, and very easily. And that's not even near Sunday, when we celebrate how God Made Trump. The Second Coming will be a hoot. But, again, why am I stating the obvious? These are just a few of the reasons why Trump won in a landslide in 2020. The real subtle and stunning beauty of it all is the level of sophistication of Trump's cult especially when it comes to foreign policy and stuff.

The video nailed it. I said in a different thread I find Trump to be extremely sexually enticing. This is why. I came twice watching that video. I can't help myself. Who can? If I were to make the smallest of critiques, I don't believe the video gives Melania the credit she deserves. Even the strongest of leaders needs a partner (meaning a woman, not a queer and definitely not Mike Pence) by his side. On April 26, 1970 God made Melania. She completes Trump. She makes him his best. Thank you God!

Thanks for confirming you're intently and happily divorced from reality. Dream on! And speaking of dreaming and denial: Stefanik pre-emptively declines to commit to accepting 2024 election results Every time one of the fervent cultists says something like this this, and says they will happily overturn an election if they don't like the results, it reinforces the toxic horror the majority of Americans feel. I hope the cultists keep saying it. We will only accept the results of democracy when we win. Women of color are welcome in our party. But only if they pledge fealty to our cult leader. Otherwise, we will tear them down. If a House Speaker comes up with a plan to bring right of center Blacks and Hispanics into our party, and get them elected to the House, we will not only refuse to thank him. We will tear him down and destroy him and drive him to resignation for not being fervently obedient to the White right wing cult compliant Freedom Caucus. Next thing on the agenda: kill the very compromise immigration bill they claim they want. You heard it here first. Please. Just keep telling America who you really are. And what you really believe. And how deep your contempt for facts and democracy really goes. Democrats have been very clear. In any other country on the planet called a democracy, Gore won by over 500,000 votes in 2000. In any other country on the planet called a democracy, Clinton won by almost 3 million votes in 2006. The electoral college is a legal gerrymander, originally used to support slavery, that Americans oppose by a 2 to 1 margin in poll after poll. So if we want to talk about what it means to have to live with the outcome of an election that a Republican POTUS lost, based on majority rule, FOR TWELVE YEARS, Democrats know a lot about that. Again, it's a fact that the electoral college is a legal gerrymander. So Democrats just sucked it up in the name of democracy. The cultists refuse to suck it up, or deal with reality. If they can't have it their way, they will destroy democracy instead. Trump has made that incredibly clear. He has employed violence to get his way. And then tried to blame the cop beating and bone breaking on everyone but him. And the cult is obediently lining up behind him.

That's the part that is so pathetically tragic. Even a 12 year old understands that facts can't just be what you want them to be. And democracy can't only work when you win. What is it about this MAGA minority that breeds contempt for basic facts, and deep and enduring hatred for democracy? Even a 12 year old is better than that. Seriously. Why the contempt? Why the hatred for America? This is NOT funny. It is hatred. It is contempt. That's a good example of the casual disdain for anything that doesn't fit in the universe of lies Trumps constantly spews. It's unfortunate you believe whatever bullshit he feeds you. Because it will just feed more disappointment, hatred, and contempt from the cop beating MAGAttes. Just like in 2018. Just like in 2020. Just like in 2022. People see and feel the contempt and hatred. People are on the side of the cops whose bones were broken by Trump's thugs. You don't see it, because you believe in the cult. Trump is up about two points against Biden in the RCP average. It's not good news for Biden, for sure. But Biden was up two points in January 2023. And Trump was up two points in May 2023. And Biden was up one point in September 2023. And Trump was up one point in October 2023. So enjoy it while it lasts. Because it won't. The only good guess we can make is that the election will be close, just like in 2016 and 2020. What I find most encouraging, and you don't even get, is that people who voted for Biden in 2020 and view him unfavorably right now are completely disgusted by Trump. And they are not likely to vote for Trump in 2024. What we don't know is whether they will hold their nose and vote for Biden to avoid the re-contamination of US democracy with Trump's contempt for facts. And his hatred of The Constitution. My personal guess is they will hold their nose and vote for Biden and Democrats, just like in 2020 and 2022. I'm glad Trump voters don't really want to see reality. Because it will help Democrats win again. What the poll you cited shows is that lots of 2020 Biden supporters are saying we'll vote for RFK or West or Stein instead. So, yes. When you move 2020 Biden supporters to that column, Trump's margin grows. It's bullshit. But, please, believe it. Believe Blacks and Hispanics and young voters are flocking to Trump's lies and contempt for democracy. Believe whatever you want. Spew hate. Spew lies. It will just help Democrats win. Trump is actually doing WORSE among Blacks, Hispanics, and young voters than in 2020, when you bother with actual facts. This Quinnipiac poll is typical of all the ones I have seen that really dig in to facts. When you add RFK and West, Trump gets 9 % of the Black vote, 26 % of the Hispanic vote, and 27 % of voters aged 18-34. In all three cases, that is WORSE than he did in 2020. Not better. So believe the bullshit. But what's happening is that voters who are pissed about the fact that prices won't go back down or Biden is supporting Israel or the SCOTUS thwarted him on student loan forgiveness are camping out with RFK or West for now. Will they vote for Trump? Of course not. Trump disgusts them. Trump's lies disgust them. Trump's hatred for democracy disgusts them. What Trump might be hoping for is these voters just stay home. But as soon as Trump and his cultists like you open their mouths, everybody else gets very scared. That is exactly what happened in 2018. It happened again in 2020. It happened again in 2022. You don't want to see it, or believe. You only believe in facts you like. You only believe in democracy when you win. Everybody outside the 25 % MAGA minority is really sick of the bullshit. Thank you for reminding us of how sick of the bullshit we are. Republicans cast doubt on whether Biden can win legitimately in 2024 This is why Haley would probably beat Biden, if Republicans nominated her. But, instead, the Trump cult will do everything they can do to destroy Haley. The overwhelmingly White MAGA cult loves women of color. But only when they vote for Trump. Otherwise, they are vermin. In destroying Haley, the democracy haters will help destroy any chance Trump has of winning. You just can't see or believe that this is deep toxic horror to the majority of Americans. Just like Jan. 6th was. You are deeply committed to hate, lies, and contempt for democracy. All of this is why Biden will probably win. I still think the key variables are that inflation continues to subside, real wages increase as pay raises surpass inflation, and the economy keeps growing. People won't love Biden. But they won't hate him for a growing economy and all time high home values and stock prices. They will hate Trump, deeply and permanently, for his lies and contempt for democracy. Even a 12 year old understands these things about America and democracy better than you do. It's sad.

Duh! Like that wasn't obvious already. Here's what is less obvious. How much does he pay them to throw themselves at him? And how much does he have to pay to shut them up then? And do I have to throw myself at Michael Cohen to get paid? Trump is extremely sexually enticing. But that Cohen dude is like Mike Pence. He just kills my hard on instantaneously. Anyway, if it's $130,000 or so, I'd throw myself at Trump, just like Stormy. But I don't have a pussy. So I'd give him a discunt.

Goodie goodie goodie!!!!! You know, Trump totally fucked up Christmas 2020 and New Years 2021. I hate losers! I hate losers who lose elections! Pence and a Christmas call star in Trump indictment I hate honest people. And I really hate losers. So as far as I am concert honest losers like Pence should be hanged or something. Give that honest loser a gallows or something. So for Christmas 2024 I was kind of hoping Trump would call and berate me and call me a loser. Then again, I'm no Mike Pence. Can Trump at least get some of his people to go break the bones of some cops or something? Or maybe fuck up The Constitution or something?

The appropriate thing for Joe Biden to do is get his drug addict son into treatment. Which he did. Question: What is the appropriate thing for victims of the Trump cult who spent months in prison because of Trump's lies to do? Answer: Just tell the truth. Convicted Jan. 6 participant: Trump is a 'dangerous' cult leader

Nice try, @EmmetK. But, sadly, you are no Donald Trump. Trump learned well from Roy Cohn. Take everything bad and criminal about you, and accuse other people of being that. So of course Trump is going to attack Biden for being a criminal, a liar, bankrupt, a rapist, whatever. Trump does it more persuasively than you, though. Here's a simple question: Hunter Biden is a total money whore, who took millions from Chinese Communists. Donald Trump is a total money whore, who took millions from Chinese Communists. What is the difference between these two men? Hunter Biden may be a money whore. But he was not President, or even the drug addict son of a President, when he did it. Trump was President when he did it. He whored up as much money as he could get from Chinese Communists. As did his daughter. The money whoring of President Trump and his family was staggering in dimension. The deep and unethical cover up by Republicans like Comer is staggering, too. If Comer wants to go after the drug addict son of Biden for being a money whore, great. But then he needs to go after Donald and his crime family for being way bigger money whores, too. Instead of leading a cover up of Trump's money whoring. Being a drug addict who peddles influence is not a violation of The Constitution. Being a money whore President like Trump who proudly sucks up millions from Chinese communists is. But, hey, Trump's been very clear that he is proud to violate The Constitution. His money whore son Eric says it's a "joke" to even bring up the fact that the Trumps took way more money from the very same Chinese communists bureaucrats they attack Hunter for money whoring around with. Pot, meet kettle. Money whore, meet drug addict. And that is not even mentioning billion dollar Jared, and that whole money whoring thing with Saudis with bone saws. Jared's even a bigger money whore than his criminal father was. And, unlike Hunter, he was working in The White House while he was being a billion dollar money whore. Money whores, money whores, money whores. The whole Trump money whore family never met a Chinese communist with money, or a Saudi dictator with a bone saw, that they didn't like. Money whores! Wrong. This may be the first Presidential election in my lifetime where it boils down to Joe Biden holding a sign says, "That's malarkey!" Politico is on it. This is their top story today: Why Jan. 6 is a problem for Trump’s campaign Views of the attack have shifted among Republicans, but it remains toxic with the rest of the electorate. So Democrats, former Democrats, Independents, and former Republicans overwhelmingly agree. Trump did something either illegal, or unethical but not illegal. In one typical poll, almost half say "illegal". A little more than a quarter say "unethical, but not illegal". This poll, like many others, was taken several years after the "illegal" or "unethical" election lies and election stealing violence took place. So people are not changing their minds about what they saw on Jan. 6th that disgusted them about Trump. That does leave about one quarter of Americans, mostly the MAGA crowd, who are happy to overlook "illegal" and "unethical" behavior, lie about it, or blame it on Hunter or Joe Biden. Roy Cohn would love ya, @EmmetK. Toxic is still toxic, no matter how much you lie about it. But at least you get an A for effort.

And Biden duly noted what I refer to as the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating as well. After all, what could be more patriotic than breaking the bones of police officers? Biden: "By Trying To Rewrite The History Of January 6, Trump Is Trying To Steal History The Way He Tried To Steal The Election" I thought his speech was great. Yes, he looks old. Yes, he stumbles over words even more than he has normally stumbled over words for decades. But he clearly showed fire and passion. I think calling out Trump as a fascist wannabe is a necessary but not sufficient part of his re-election strategy. The most effective thing Biden did was to just quote Trump. About how he wants to be a dictator, kind of. And how I'm vermin because I oppose him. Who knew? People call me verbose. But not vermin. 😯 If 2024 is solely a referendum on Biden, I'd say he has at best a 50/50 chance. Too many people are too pissed off that higher prices won't go back down. Even if their net worth and the stock market and their home value is at an all time high. Biden needs to make it a referendum on Trump as well. Which he has now clearly demonstrated he can and will do. The thing Trump can't escape is that he did try to steal an election. His lies about 2020, and what he told his thugs to do, are despicable. Most people other than loyal Trump supporters know this to be true. Biden needs to keep reminding them. People will sort out whether they care more about democracy, or how much more a Big Mac costs than four years ago. One more paragraph on Biden and what he needs to do to win that goes beyond Jan. 6th. Kudos to Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, who just unintentionally did a great job of making a self-defeating argument about why Biden must step aside. Schoen's latest claim to fame was advising Mike Bloomberg on how to spend $1 billion getting nowhere in the 2020 Democratic primary. Oops. Schoen points out what we all know: Biden's poll numbers suck. So he must be replaced. But by who? How about Kamala Harris? Nope. Her numbers are worse. Okay. How about Hillary Clinton? Nope. She lost in 2016, remember? The only "okay, but who else?" Schoen can come up with is Gavin Newsom, who polls the same as Biden. Somehow Schoen thinks that Trump being a little ahead of Biden in January 2024 is awful. But Trump being a little ahead of Newsom in January 2024 is promising. Huh? So his argument is Democrats should somehow dump an incumbent President to replace him with someone else, somehow, who polls just as badly. Huh? Again, this may explain why Schoen's advice led Bloomberg to spend $1 billion to win nothing. I trust Biden's political judgment on how to win more. He managed to be Senator, Veep, and POTUS for over half a century so far. Give 'em hell, Joe!

You wandered around two issues in your post. The impact of Israel's war on the 2024 election. And broader Democratic Party turnout issues. So I'll do the same. Politics is fickle. I had high hopes for Abrams. And her voter registration work was, and is, incredible. It got Warnock elected. That said, she ran for Guv twice and lost twice. The second time by a wider margin than the first. In that same 2022 election where she did worse than she did in 2018, Warnock won again. There's lots of factors that went into that. But, at the end of the day, your point is about being about to win in 2024. And Abrams was not able to win. In Michigan, on the other hand, Whitmer is a huge winner. The rhetoric in Fall 2022 was that she might be a victim of the red wave. What red wave? Instead, she clobbered her opponent, took over the legislature, and has followed through with all kinds of legislative wins. So, again, politics is fickle. Biden is clearly in trouble. And the war in Israel does not help. Steve Kornacki helpfully contributed that right now his favorability rating is lower than any POTUS entering an election year in polling history. Even if he surges in his election year, like Obama and Clinton did before him, will it be enough? I think one thing we can safely bet on is that this will be one of the most negative campaigns ever. Some recent poll said that a majority of people who plan to vote for both Trump and Biden view it as a vote against the other guy, rather than for their guy. Biden will have to paint Trump as what one anonymous Biden aide called "full on Hitler." That said, it complicates matters when Biden is the one selling bombs to Bibi. I guess Biden's argument will be that, at the end of the day, Trump loves Bibi better. Ugh! Anyone who has a big problem with Bibi should also have a big problem with Trump, given how he favored Bibi as POTUS. Trump, Kushner and Netanyahu are hellbent on destroying the two-state solution Biden, of course, is doing the exact opposite. And saying the end goal must be a two state solution. There's a lot of prognosticating about how a lot of people who are turned off just won't vote. On the Biden side, that would include lots of young voters who feel like he's on Team Bibi The Baby Bomber. I don't have a clue. Biden will try to make it a referendum on the future of democracy and civilization. I would not be surprised if it is another huge turnout election. And, if it is, I have no clue whether that would favor Trump or Biden. Biden's stance on Israel won't help. Inflation has been his biggest problem. But, in theory, Israel or immigration or impeachment could all be seen as final nails in the coffin if he loses. There are a few things I find somewhat encouraging. There's been a lot of talk about how Biden is bleeding support among base voters. Especially young, Black, and Hispanic voters. This November Quinnipiac poll addresses that dynamic, I think. When you add RFK Jr. and West, Biden is in fact bleeding support in those three base groups: 41 % of voters under 35 say they'll vote for RFK or West. 35 % of Blacks and 41 % of Hispanics say the same. That's huge. And of course bad news for Biden. That said, in the same poll Trump has the support of 9 % of Blacks, 26 % of Hispanics, and 27 % of voters under 35. In all three cases, that is WORSE than he did with each group in 2020, based on exit polls. So the issue is NOT that Trump is winning over young voters, or Blacks, or Hispanics. It's that Biden is losing them to "anybody but Trump or Biden." But when it actually comes down to either Trump or Biden, and both sides argue their opponent will destroy America, who knows where young voters, Blacks, and Hispanics will go? Or whether they vote at all? That's probably what will determine who wins. If I had to bet, if they voted for Biden in 2020 they are mostly likely to hold their nose in 2024 and vote for him again, though. Which is mildly encouraging. That's another reason for mild encouragement. As this article notes, Biden has been very consistent in rebuilding the DNC "one team, one fight" party machinery that Obama basically left bankrupt. Will that help? Probably. We know when Obama was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012, his star power and Obama-focused grassroots organizing worked well. In 2010 and 2014 turnout sucked, and it was a disaster. One reason some people think Democrats beat the red trickle in 2022 is because they did a good job on party machinery and turnout in swing states and districts. That said, I don't think anyone knows yet what kind of wave will form in 2024. Israel, and how people feel about the bombing of innocent Palestinians, will not help. West has already said he'll use this in Michigan to win votes of Palestinians. Any wave that forms to help Biden will have to lift him from crappy 40 % favorable ratings. That's much worse than Obama and Clinton were in January of their re-election year. And such a wave will be based way more on fear of Trump than on warm fuzzies for Old Joe. To paraphrase the OP, out of context: THIS IS SCARY!

Poor thing. Granted, you get 24/7 bullshit from your butcher leader. Who has to explain why he's turning hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer. Even so, you are human. Humans have the power of critical thinking. Even in Russia. So it must just be very difficult to believe your own bullshit. But, hey. Congratulations! You do it gracefully. Zelenskyy is wildly popular. In fact, thank your sadist murderer for that. One of the many ways your sadist fucked himself, and Russia, is he made a not too popular leader of Ukraine before 2022 (49/50) into a wildly popular war leader. The more anti-Russia Zelenskyy is, the more popular he becomes. Woo hoo! Some victory for your sadist butcher. Barring some unforeseen change, Zelenskyy will be re-elected handily. Quite a change from the idea that Putin would either kill him or force him to flee within a week of invading Ukraine two years ago. It's interesting that Zelenskyy is most popular, 91 %, among younger Ukrainians. Who are of course most likely to be drafted. That tells us a lot about the future, I think. They hate Putin. They want Putin to no longer exist. They want Russia to no longer exist. Some victory for Russia! Woo hoo! Putin has managed to irrevocably make Ukraine hate Russia, forever. If the many analysts who say Russia has a good chance of breaking up in the next decade are right, Ukrainians will dance on Russia's grave. Woo hoo! Couldn't happen to nicer butchers and sadists. The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture. The headlines say it all. If the New York Times and Politico are both saying it, it is probably true. So, for purposes of debate, let's call this a big victory for Putin. What is the nature of the victory? After suffering a massive humiliation in 2022, when his invasion turned into a disaster, Putin recovered. He has proven a much smaller and weaker country can not completely drive him out of their country. And everybody in the world now hates Putin. Woo hoo! Awesome victory. Even if some deal is made that is called "peace," it won't be peace. What will be interesting to see is how Ukraine sets about to undermine Putin and Russia permanently. The history of every one of these invasions - VietNam, both the USSR and US editions of Afghanistan, Iraq - is that territory is easier to seize with overwhelming force than to hold. So Ukraine will do exactly the same, and permanently bleed Putin as dry as they can. Lots of Russians will die in occupied territories for many years to come. Assuming Putin can actually hold them, which won't be easy. Are you for or against Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? That's an amazing shift, that more than any other single graphic defines Putin's strategic defeat. And why Russia is fucked. As recently as a decade ago, a plurality of Ukrainians were opposed to joining NATO. Now an overwhelming majority want protection from their sadistic neighbors. It will take years. Ukraine will have to focus on defense. And build lots of walls and ditches and weapons. But it will have to happen. Because it is the only practical way for Ukraine to rebuild with security. That's the other reason Ukraine will have to join NATO eventually, and NATO will have to accept Ukraine. Poland could take off once it was free. Because it wanted and got security from the sadistic butchers that enslaved it. If we go back to 2021 and Putin's treatise about why Ukraine and Russia should be one, politically and culturally, he lost the debate. Ukraine wants to be prosperous, like Poland. It does not want to be a mess, like Russia. Game over. Putin lost. That will also help consolidate Ukraine's turn to the EU and NATO. I feel very sorry for the people in the blue areas that are now part of Russia. For a while, at least. It will be interesting to see whether there is some kind of Afghanistan-like guerilla warfare. Where Russians just get blown up a lot, or have their throats slit. But the long view of this is that the parts of Ukraine that identified with Russia the most, and spoke Russian the most, will now be part of Russia. Even though they mostly don't want to be. Ukraine will gradually rid itself of as much of its historic Russian identity and Russian sympathy as it can. Exactly the opposite of what Putin wanted. Woo hoo! Some victory! If Putin were smart he would shift as quickly as he can from his unsustainable butchering budget. He would try to be the nation that builds out AI, or manufactures electric cars. But that goes to the core of why Russia is fucked. The IT specialists fled. Electric cars are being made in China. AI is being built out in the US. Putin will need a big butchering budget just to defend what he took. Turkey is now close to letting Sweden join NATO. So the noose around Putin just keeps getting tighter and tighter. Russia's war/sadism economy will have to be focused first and foremost on just keeping Putin and his kleptocrats alive and in power. It's not a pretty future for Russia. But it is the future Putin fucked you with. Sorry @Moses.

By the way, @Mavica, since you're the boring type who shies away from insults and loves deep analysis, how bout we turn the spotlight back to Vlad's War/Butchering economy? Because, unlike me, I think our Russian sadist is NOT an idiot. Putin quietly signals he is open to a cease-fire in Ukraine Now, the one huge caveat is that we don't know whether that article, which is New York Times reporting, is true. That said, if it is even remotely accurate it is deeply consistent with my analysis of @Moses's favorite murderous pit bull throughout this thread. The article suggests that Putin was open to a deal last Fall, at the same time Joint Chiefs Of Staff Gen. Milley was saying the same. Milley's point, right after Ukraine kicked Russia's ass and took back lots of occupied territory, was that this may be as good as it gets for Ukraine. So far, he was right. And Putin may have felt something was better than nothing. Now Putin is in the same position. If he's as smart as he is sadistic, he may realize this is as good as it gets for Russia. If Russian soldiers go on offense, they walk right back into a meat grinder. The fact that Putin developed an unsustainable one year butchering budget itself implies he may be open to a deal. Even for a sadist, maybe he is reluctant to turn many more hundreds of thousands of Russian men into fertilizer. This puts a different spin on the United States and Europe's internal debates about aid to Ukraine. I doubt many Republicans who oppose aid really want Ukraine to lose, and Ukrainians to be slaughtered. I doubt their first priority is Ukraine, period. But they may be thinking this puts pressure on Ukraine to make a deal and live for another day. Part of the tragedy of this is that even if Putin is open to a deal, which would at best be fragile, I doubt Ukraine is. And that's not Zelenskyy. That's the Ukrainian public. I did consult with @Mavica, who is a global expert on idiots. And he confirmed that only idiots would be open to making territorial concessions to a butcher who slaughters their men, rapes their women, and either blows up or kidnaps their children. The most recent polls suggest Ukrainians, no doubt demoralized by the lack of recent victories, are more open to a deal than before. Meaning 75 percent of the country is still AGAINST making any kind of deal with Putin. They hate him. I'll repeat. He is fucked. And Russia is fucked. My own guess is that Putin knows that Russia is fucked. With Perma-War, all he has to offer is, at best, a permanent low growth butchering economy that specializes in creating weapons. And lots of good Russian fertilizer. But he may now be stuck in the horror he created. Then again, I'm an idiot. So what would I know?

Technically, no. I voted for Biden/Harris in 2020. I received my PhD in Being An Idiot in 2021. I have been on medication since 2022. So I can be an idiotic Biden/Harris supporter on medication. Or, I can be a medicated Biden/Harris supporter with idiotic tendencies. Or, for a warm and funny and thoughtful guy like you, it's okay if you say, "Steven, you're just another super fucked up Biden/Harris supporter." But I can't just be an idiot. I am so much more than that. 😉

Which problem? The border? Or my mental illness? Anyhoo, thank you. I forgot to take my medication today. So after reading your thoughtful post I took my pills. Bad Nazi Steven went away. At least for the next 12 hours. Good Steven is back. That addresses my mental illness. Here's one way of thinking of how to address the border problem: In a recent Harvard Harris poll 70 % of Americans answered that we need stricter policies. 55 % of Democrats, 71 % of Independents, and 85 % of Republicans now agree. So one good thing about Biden's policies, even if you think they suck, is that they paved the way for bipartisan agreement. The sooner Congress passes a bipartisan compromise immigration bill, the better. Back to my mental illness, you will understand this next point better than anyone, @Mavica. I'm a Biden/Harris supporter. That alone confirms that I am both mentally ill, and stupid. For that reason alone, I'm not a big fan of the RFK campaign. Simply because the most likely outcome is it helps get Trump elected. So if RFK runs a great campaign that elects Trump, it's still a shitty campaign to me. That said, I love what RFK is at least trying to do. Which is run a positive and thoughtful Independent campaign. His strongest constituency is young voters. Because he is proposing things like 3 % fixed rate government mortgages to help make homeownership affordable again to a segment of America (young people) who feel screwed. He's doing the same thing on immigration. He denies playing politics. But he is of course playing politics, by mixing the compassion talk of liberals with the tough border talk of MAGA folk. It actually is a great contribution to the debate. Especially because he's pushing the idea of compromise, compassion, thoughtful debate, and sticking up for the average American. Since you are the most thoughtful poster here, @Mavica, always informing us with facts and deep analysis, I know you agree. So here's a great 20 minute video on RFK's take on the border. If 2024 is about debates like this, it will be good for America. As well as for border policy. Again, I'm a mentally ill Biden/Harris supporter. But I welcome RFK's contribution to the debate. He's explicitly calling out Biden's unpopular border policies. Implicitly, he is calling out Trump's Nazi-like language and utter lack of compassion as well. Plus, his Spanish sucks about as bad as my Spanish and German. But if he wants to focus us on the bad ass coyotes who are getting rich off un desmadre of their own cruel creation, I'm all for it. RFK BORDER POLICY

Thank you. At least we can be honest here. I am just getting sick of it. It's not just the illegal aliens. All these un-American woke sissies at Harvard should just be deported to their respective shitholes. And I know. The Woke ACLU will say they were born here. I don't give a fuck. Just build a fucking wall around Harvard and let the sissies and Jew haters stay in their fucking woke wonderland. I am tired of hearing all this fucking whining about Palestinian women and children. There is nothing morally wrong with wiping 20,000 terrorists off the face of the earth. In fact, it is anti-Semitic to whine about blowing those 20,000 terrorists up. It's just less immigrant filth to poison our blood. There is only only leader whose people march FOR Jews and FOR Israel. Donald "My Son-In-Law Is The Best Jew Ever" Trump! We need a strong leader who has the back of the Jews! There is nothing wrong when the people the country belongs to want to make it great again and decide to rid their country of filth. We're not haters just because wir wollen reines Blut!

One thing I really appreciate about @Moses and @EmmetK is that, even if we disagree about policy, they are always factually correct. For example, there was no caravan crisis when Trump was President. Had there been, he might have been fired. But this caravan crisis that exists under Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden just didn't exist under Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump. That's just a fact. Migrant caravans restart as pandemic deepens the humanitarian crisis at the US-Mexico border Published: October 6, 2020 One of the truly remarkable things about Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump's leadership of the US was that everything was calm at the border. There were rules, and everyone followed them. People just need to be reminded that in October 2020, as that headline says, there were no caravans. There was no border crisis. Even Mexicans, especially Moms with kids, praised the fair and compassionate way Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump managed the border. This is why Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump won re-election overwhelmingly in 2020. Only lying and unethical Democrats (and a few demented Independents) buy this bullshit about how Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden won. Trump won by more votes than any leader on any planet in the entire universe ever. That's just a fact. Once fairness and compassion is restored under Donald "I'm A Genius, Again" Trump, there is an obvious solution. First, we need the biggest mass deportation of illegal aliens, ever. Second, all these lying and un-American Democrats should be deported, too. And sent back to the shit holes they came from. What disgusts me even more is that these un-American Democrats don't even care about how raping, murdering Mexicans are killing our own kids with fentanyl. Under Donald "I'm A Genius" Trump, there was no drug problem. A fair and compassionate leader like Trump wouldn't let an ounce of that killer drug into the US. Much less the truckloads and barges that Senile Stupid Corrupt Lazy Joe "Piece Of Shit" Biden practically waves in. People just need to be reminded that before that senile old fart and his ignorant Black female Veep were in charge, we had no fentanyl problem in America. As that chart shows. That's just a fact. Just like we had no border crisis and no caravans in 2020 until the senile fart was elected. That's just a fact.

It's fun to watch how you deny every fact from every poster. including by posting graphics that mean nothing. Obviously this is not the place for a factual debate But here's an idea. Lets' swap places. Just for fun, I'll be you and defend the sadist butcher! Look! Every country in world love Russia. Every country in world buys oil from Russia and glorious economy. US love glorious leader of Russia. UK loves glorious leader of Russia. Germany loves glorious leader of Russia. This is a fact! Why do all these countries love glorious Russia and want to be like Russia? Because they love glorious Russian leader and want to be like vibrant and most powerful economy of whole world- Russia! it is a fact!

True, I wouldn't either. But Russia is a special place as far as being super fucked up. It is definitely where I'd want to live if I wanted to fall out of windows; fly in airplanes that explode; be tortured, jailed, or killed for having an opinion; or simply be turned into fertilizer. Nobody is a better butcher than you, Vlad! P.S. If I wanted to live somewhere that chops me into pieces I'd definitely want to like in that MBS dude's country though.

You should add Africa to your list of continents that thinks Putin is a butcher. At least Africa is where De Nile is. You should like it there. African sentiment is favouring Ukraine What part of "Africa doesn't like Russia and thinks Putin is a butcher" do you not understand. Most of the world does not want Russia to exist. Your unloved sadistic nation is probably going to fail and disintegrate.

We got facts. You've got dreams. Let's see. Is South Africa in Africa? I think so. They don't like you. The one country on that list that likes Russia in India. Because you sell them cheap shit. And Master Xi does not like his sadistic pit bull. HE LOVES HIM. Master Xi will buy as much cheap shit as his desperate little sadistic pit bull will sell. No doubt. The little murderous pit bull will no doubt survive for years as he weakens Russia. As long as he stays on Master Xi's leash, and doesn't fuck things up too much. Master Xi could give a shit how many hundreds of thousands of Russians die. We all know Master Xi looks down on his mongrel pit bull and his people, anyway. He's just using you. If you like being on Master Xi's leash and being used, good for you. I'm happy for you.