stevenkesslar

Yup. You are in The Cult. In the eyes of The Cult, most Americans are sick and wrong. Is that what you believe, @EmmetK? That most Americans are sick? What did facts do to you? Why do you hate facts? Majority Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Federal Criminal Charges Linked To 2020 Election Nearly two-thirds of Americans think Jan. 6 charges against Trump are serious 51% of voters say convicting Trump of a ‘serious crime’ would be a ‘fair outcome’ And. from Bloomberg, who you don't think is fake news: Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous Again, the headline doesn't say it. But the overwhelming majority of voters who are not in The Cult say Trump is too old, too. By killing Nikki Haley, you just killed the candidate more likely to be Biden. As a Democrat who knows Trump is dangerous and wrong, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. So does Joe.

Biden Can Still Win — If He Runs Like Harry Truman Great article. I'm surprised there haven't been more stories like this. Although one thing that is true about most media talking heads, left of right, is they usually go for the lazy and obvious analysis. Trump leads! Biden should quit! So thinking about Harry Truman may be above their pay grade. There have been endless variations of "2024 is 1980, and Joe Biden is Jimmy Carter" in right wing media. God bless them and their denial of facts. Here's the most important fact about why Biden is more like Truman than Carter. In 1976, Carter beat Ford in part by saying the misery index was way too high. In 1980, Reagan slaughtered Carter by saying it was now even higher. Over 20 percent! Right now the misery index is 6.8 percent, which is one point LOWER than the last day Trump was POTUS. Trump may have a hard time explaining why the economy was great under him, after all. Repeal Obamacare, anyone? Cut taxes for billionaires, anyone? Wouldn't it be way more swell if our homes and stocks were worth less? That argument just won't hold up. Of course, Trump doesn't understand RISING net worth. His is phony. And about to go way down! The "economy sucks" argument probably holds up best for Gen Z and some Millennials. Who don't own homes or stocks, and are perhaps suffering relatively more from higher prices and interest rates. And they mostly hate Trump. They'll vote for Trump so that he can make abortion illegal everywhere, and make sure there can never ever be student debt relief? Give me a break! Biden does need to Give Em Hell. It turns out that when you are Giving People Hell, you do not look old and senile and feeble. So one good reason for Biden to model himself on a populist like Truman is he won't look so God damn old. Biden is in better shape than Truman, if we go by objective facts. In both 2024 and 1948, most people said they did not like the incumbent President. And Reason # 1 was higher prices. In 1946, inflation peaked at 20 % just as people were voting. The midterms were a wipeout for Democrats. Which fed the idea that Democrats will have their heads chopped off in 1948. In 2022 inflation peaked under 10 %, and was on the way down by November. Which may be why Democrats did better than expected. People of course don't like higher prices. It's not clear that will stick on election day, though. Just ask Harry Truman. That's especially true if Biden runs a campaign based on economic populism, like Truman did. Trump actually did cut taxes for billionaires like himself. Biden actually did say working class women with kids should get tax credits so their kids can afford to play team sports. It lifted half of the children in the US out of poverty for one year. People can understand the differences. In 1948 it was early days of The Cold War. And no one could predict who would win. In 2024 we have won the Cold War. And Biden wants to keep Russia contained and help Ukraine. Ronald Reagan would agree with Joe Biden, not Donald Trump. The majority of people agree we should help Ukraine and not be weak and feeble with Putin. I'll keep repeating that Biden has a "Genocide Joe" problem with his base. But as this article suggests, if and when Biden demands a ceasefire (Kamala Harris just did) that will help. Biden needs to start giving Bibi hell, too. If he wants to be POTUS in 2025. As a lifetime Israel supporter, I strongly believe it is better for Israel. Bibi is turning Israel into Apartheid Land, at best, and Genocide World, at worst. It is not in the interest of Israel or the US to keep sliding into that abyss. More dead Jews, anyone? The one thing that was a little bit of a revelation to me in that article above is that as much as Stein and West are a curse, they are also kind of a blessing. And Biden knows this, if anyone does. In 2020 he won mostly because he religiously clung to the middle of the road, as best he could. Yeah, 2020 was the most liberal Democratic primary ever. But Biden always wanted to be the guy closer to the center. He will do the same thing in Fall 2024. And it will probably work, too. He will attack his "dangerous" opponent on the right, Trump, and also his dangerous opponents on The Left. Election Polls; 1948 and Today That's a boring and long-winded look at 1948. But, hey. What am I if not boring and long-winded. And, often, correct. I do like facts. Lots of them. Truman's approval was 38 % around now in 1948. All year long Dewey was beating him in the polls. It's risky to compare 1948 polls to today. But at the time Gallup and Roper and a few others were viewed as very credible pollsters. To the point that the media at the time was saying we don't even need to hold an election. Dewey won. Kind of like @EmmetK insists Trump won already. Poor thing! There is one big difference between Trump and Dewey. Trump is seen as far more dangerous. I don't think @EmmetK and The Cult get that. Democrats like me are partisan. Duh! But we can see facts. The polls are telling us right now that most Democrats and Independents agree that both Biden and Trump are too old. independents and Democrats also agree that Trump is too dangerous. The Cult can't see that. That is, of course, because they are in The Cult. There is one fact in that 1948 poll that I think does suggest why Biden could lose. And why he needs to run a Harry Truman campaign. In 1948, by a 2 to 1 margin, people said the New Deal policies had done more good than harm. People may have voted less for Truman, and more for FDR. In 2024, as @EmmetK has correctly pointed out, Trump is winning the issues. So far. On the economy, people say (today) that Trump's policies did more good than harm. And Biden's policies have done more harm than good. And they don't mean lower prescription drug costs, or child tax credits. They mean higher prices. Biden needs to Give Trump Hell. Do we really want more tax cuts for the rich? Do we really want to try to repeal Obamacare, again? Do we really want more trade wars that will - what do tariffs do? - RAISE PRICES ON THE WORKING CLASS. Is it better to have more billionaires with lower tax bills and twice as many poor Hispanic children? Do we really want abortion illegal everywhere? Do we really want a government policy of climate change denial? Do we really want to let Bibi pave Gaza over with the blood of Palestinian women and children? Do we really want Murderous Vlad to win in Ukraine? Do we really want Trump governing from a prison cell, not the Oval Office? Or, when Congress does something Trump doesn't like, should he just send his thugs over to break some more cops' bones? That debate has not even begun. I won't be surprised if Biden and Democrats win it. Again. Like in 2018. And 2020. And 2022. And 2023. And so far in 2024.

I know. I know. I know. Facts! Fucking facts! You just hate them, don't you @EmmetK? Especially when they involve analysis. Granted, it is a very bad sign in March of an election year when a candidate is like five points behind. Facts are facts. Obviously they are going to lose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's take March 5, 2016 as an example. In the RCP average, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5 points. By late Match 2016, she had a 10 point lead. For a guy like @EmmetK, facts are facts! Hillary Clinton was obviously going to win. And she did win, in a landslide. Facts are facts. It's just that simple! It may help to compare those two charts, Mr. Facts. What's obvious visually is that in 2020 Biden was ahead of Trump the whole time. And in the end he won by 7 million votes. 2016 was a pretty close race. Most people did not think that way at the time. A lot of people thought of course Trump couldn't win. But at least in retrospect if you look at the polls there were lots of times when Trump was close - like within 2 or 3 points - and even a teeny bit ahead. What no one really imagined well enough is that Clinton could win the popular vote by millions of votes, but lose the electoral college by hundreds of thousands of votes. That's where we are right now. What should be visually obvious even to you, @EmmetK, is that this is a very close race. Much closer than either 2020 or 2016. But, hey. I get it. You're in The Cult. The Cult just sends money to Trump and repeats his lies and bullshit. The Cult is NOT supposed to think. Facts suck, huh? But if you think having a 10 point lead in March wins you the election in November, go ask Hillary Clinton about it. The polls are saying correctly that Biden has an age problem. And an economy problem. And an immigration problem. And especially an Israel/"Genocide Joe" problem. There is no question that Trump opened up a lead when US bombs were being used to kill tens of thousands of Palestinian women and children, with Biden's tacit okay. But I'm with Trump on one thing. Trump actually wrote a note to Allan Lichtman saying, "Good call" when he predicted Trump would win in 2016. I'm guessing Trump did no such thing when Lichtman predicted Trump would lose in 2020. Point is that Lichtman has been stunningly correct that people ultimately vote on fundamentals, not polls. People are not stupid. (Well, there is The Cult). So they don't like Biden's age. And they don't like higher prices. And they want a less open border. And young voters and Independents who are turning against Biden in the last few months overwhelmingly want a Gaza cease fire. None of that means Biden is going to lose. Let alone in a landslide. That is just you, The Cult, and an aversion to facts, @EmmetK. What did facts do to you? Here's a few other facts in that poll that The Cult really needs to overlook. Trump is also too old, according to most voters. And, unlike Biden, he is "dangerous" to most voters. Right now what people are saying about Biden is mostly, "He's old." Right now what people are saying about Trump is mostly, "He's winning." Don't count on that to stick when the fight gets underway. People may focus more on how and why Trump is dangerous. Speaking of Trump sweeping those primaries and winning, did you notice how the Fox News (not fake news!) poll said in a general election today Haley would beat Biden by 8 points, whereas Trump would beat Biden by 2 points? That's definitely not good news for Biden. But it is not great news for Trump, either. Thanks to people like you, @EmmetK, The Cult is beating to death a younger candidate who would have a much better chance of beating Biden, based on every poll out there. When it comes to Biden and Trump, though, most people (but not The Cult) agree both men are too old to be POTUS. Biden is not senile, and he is a realist. I'm 1000 % sure he'd rather run against Trump than Haley. So what The Cult just accomplished is taking out a candidate who would have a much better shot at taking out Biden. Woo hoo! No one ever accused you of being a genius, @EmmetKdid they? Meanwhile, there are ZERO polls showing [name a Democrat other than Biden] would do better against Trump than Biden. The Cult, and the lazy media, have this weird conspiracy fantasy that somehow Democrats will replace Biden with Michelle Obama or Kamala Harris or some Black woman The Cult despises. But that is all Cult weirdness, with a tinge of racism. It has nothing to do with facts. What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Why are you having such problems with facts? Yes. Biden is old. So is Trump. You really don't get why a majority of Americans see Trump and The Cult as dangerous, do you? The part I am looking forward to is when people roar in approval when Trump says, "I want to cut taxes for billionaires and corporations that charge higher prices!" And when he says, "Let's make both abortion and health care illegal, everywhere!" people will elect him overwhelmingly. 😉

That is a fact. Nothing else does matter to you. You are 1000 % in with the Cult. That is all that really matters to you.

Good for you dear. That is a fact. Woo hoo! Here's another fact. Trump lost by 7 million votes in 2020. Why did that happen if people "overwhelmingly" fell Trump helped them personally? The inflation thing is interesting. There is no question if you read all these polls that higher prices is THE thing. I think it is probably true with younger voters as well. Even though for a lot of them it's Gaza that was the bridge too far that led to Trump's lead starting last October. Will inflation kill Biden at the end of the day? It sure could. But I wouldn't count on it. I'm much more worried about young voters just giving up on Biden because of things like Gaza. Because that is out of Biden's control, unless he becomes Prime Minister of India. On the economy, assuming we keep avoiding the recession that has been predicted for years, Biden has not really fought back yet. in fact, there is no fight yet. People are just remembering how prices were lower when Trump was POTUS. So, yeah, wasn't Trump's economy the best? I mean, prices were lower. Hot damn! When he cut taxes for billionaires, everyone practically creamed in their pants . Life was so hard for all those corporations that raised prices, and overwhelmingly people said, "Yeah. Let's give them tax cuts." But it was even better for the economy and working class pocketbooks when Trump said, "Hey. Here's a thought. How about I take all those health care protections away, and you can go broke again when you get sick?" People erupted in applause! God did people love having their health care repealed by Trump. Or almost. That really helped people. Overwhelmingly! You get my point. There is clearly nostalgia for a time when prices were lower. And people clearly blame it on Biden, with help making the case coming from Trump and Republicans. Will that stick when Biden reminds people why they fired Trump in the first place? Don't count on it. Especially if the economy keeps improving. Wages have been surpassing inflation for about a year now. Global leader approval index Here's another fun fact. Almost every "Western" leader who presided over the inflation spike after COVID has low approval ratings. Mostly lower than Biden's. On that list Biden is at 37 in the Morning Consult poll. The RCP approval average for Biden is 41 right now. But let's go with 37. Sanchez is at 38, Trudeau at 35, Kristersson at 33, Sunak at 27, Macron at 24, Yook Seok-youl at 20, and Scholz at 20. Inflation got even higher in most of those countries. So every leader that presided over inflation in most of "the West" is viewed as bad or worse than Biden. The leaders who were elected more recently, after inflation peaked and started to decline, are mostly viewed better: Berset at 57, Tusk at 50, Lula at 47, Albonese at 45, Meloni at 44. Maybe that's just because they are newer and fresher. Or maybe they escaped voter ire for the inflation that DID NOT happen on their watch. The two big exceptions are Modi, at 77 % approval, and AMLO at 64 %. They did preside over big inflation spikes in their countries. US inflation is 3.1 %, compared to 5.1 % in India and 4.9 % in Mexico. Why did Modi and AMLO escape the wrath of voters, at last in opinion polls? Who knows. But my guess is they have been particularly good at painting themselves as populists who care about the little guy. Which is obviously what Trump is going for. Trump stands for THE LITTLE GUY AND GAL. Unless they are cops, of course. Then he has his mob break their bones for taking hostages and shit like that. But, mostly, Trump is a working class kind of guy. Will it work well enough to get Trump elected? It could. Trump kind of rode that populist wave in 2016. The problem now is basically everything he did between January 2017 and January 2021. Including that whole thing about breaking cop bones and stuff. So will this wonderful nostalgia for "the Trump era" and how great things were stick? Will people say, "Fuck yeah! We want big corporations who raised prices on us to get more tax breaks! And who needs health care, anyway? Give the money to corporations!" They might. But don't count on it.

Facts have been very bad to you, I know. Nuance and humor has been even worse to you I guess. I don't think Bloomberg is fake news. You're the fact-free cultist saying polls you don't like are fake news. So let's try this again. These are very simple facts. Try hard, buddy. Try hard. That is from Bloomberg News, which YOU cited. LMFAO that you are so hostile to facts that you can't even absorb facts from the websites and polls YOU cite. But since YOU cited this website and YOU cited this poll, try to believe it, buddy. Try hard. Facts won't hurt you. The race is "almost evenly split" in Wisconsin and Michigan, according to Bloomberg. That's means tied, buddy. Not a landslide. Not a victory. A tie. Here's another fact from the website YOU cited and the poll YOU cited. LMFAO that you can't absorb facts from polls YOU post. Again, that is from the Bloomberg poll YOU cited. Like Biden, a majority of voters think Trump is too old to run. The difference between Biden supporters like me and The Cult is Biden supporters, and in fact most Democrats and Independents, agree both Biden and Trump are too old. The Cult can't admit that even to itself. Let alone that a majority of voters think Trump is dangerous. If you want to believe Trump has already won in a landslide, just like you want to believe he won in 2020, go ahead. It won't change anything when he loses. The numbers that explain the messy Michigan primary results The fact that there's a poll right now that says Biden is "almost evenly split" is actually relatively good news for Biden, given how pissed a lot of his base voters are with him now over Gaza. If Biden does lose Michigan, this will be why. Trump and Netankillyu would be fine with paving over Gaza with the blood of Palestinian women and kids. So it's far from clear how this plays out once that becomes clearer to voters who are pissed at Biden. But if his base continues to say "Fuck you, Genocide Joe," which is what over 100,000 of them said on Tuesday, that could be fatal. Bloomberg and all the polls have ZERO clue how that will turn out. That's mostly up to Biden at this point.

From your fake news website: From your fake news website: By the way, the vast majority of voters think Trump is too old - and dangerous - to be POTUS But if it makes you feel better to post this stuff, go ahead. It won't change the outcome of the election.

When is he going to run for Congress? He sounds more qualified than his Mom. 😉

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After looking at 200 pages of crosstabs on that poll, I agree with you that Democrats should be freaking out. But not for the reasons you say. This is another long and boring detail-oriented post. But any Democrat who cares about winning in 2024 should care about the details of how Biden's loss is starting to shape up. The clear fact staring us in the face today is that 14 % of Michigan Democrats, or about 100,000 voters, just said "fuck you" to Biden over Gaza by voting "uncommitted". However you slice it, that's more than enough nails to pound Biden's coffin shut in November. Probably even worse is that Biden got 562,000 votes - although something like 20 % of the vote is uncounted. In the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary, Sanders got about that many votes. Meaning he got wiped off the map by Biden, who got 840,000 votes. Yes, you can argue it is not a "real" primary. But in a year when lots of young voters are saying I didn't know I was voting for "Genocide Joe" in 2020 and I won't vote for him again, this is a big problem. "Uncommitted" got 1.2 % of the vote in Michigan in 2020. So getting 14 % in 2024 is a big problem, too. If you are a Jew, a Palestinian, or a Democrat, it's time to freak out. Because on the track we're on things are going to get more divisive and more deadly. And Jews and Palestinians and Democrats are the losers. The winners, as of right now, are Bibi Netanyahu, Donald Trump, and Republicans. Bibi is unpopular, for sure. But as of today he is getting to bomb the fuck out of Gaza, kill tens of thousands of Palestinians, and stir up deeper hopelessness about the possibility of peace. That's been his agenda as long as he has been in power. He's winning, as of today. The bombing continues. It's easy to imagine that in a year Trump is POTUS, and Bibi survives somehow. And then the goal really is to turn Gaza into a parking lot, paved with the blood of women and children. After all, what else are we supposed to do with Hamas? To take it to its logical conclusion, Gaza changes in status from an open air prison to an open air concentration camp. Whether you get bombed to death, starved to death, or dehydrated to death is simply a matter of details. To the degree that there are Jews or Republicans that want that, you're a winner. And OF COURSE it's not that we really want that. It's just that Hamas gave us no choice. Why would anyone want most Palestinian babies born prematurely to die stuffed in an incubator with other babies, like they are today? That line I cited in the Harvard/Harris poll above that claims voters 18 to 24 support "support Israel over Hamas" is at best deceptive. What's surprising to me is that young voters now view Israel itself net unfavorably. And they actually view the Palestinian Authority more favorably than Israel. This is unprecedented. It's the opposite of the reality I knew when I was an 18 to 24 year old Democrat. Back then South Africa was the apartheid state. Israel had a problem with the PLO. But most Democrats I knew felt Arafat was the one rejecting peace deals. I despised Arafat, and thought he was failing his people. I still feel that way. Even moreso now that I get to see how it played out for innocent Palestinians. But I also see very clearly how Israel is headed to being the new apartheid state among young Americans. Except it's worse. There was never a point where South Africa killed 30,000 Blacks. The Soweto uprising was a big nail in the coffin of apartheid. That killed maybe 700 people, which is a high estimate. Among all voters, Israel is viewed 51 % favorably and 28 % unfavorably. Among voters 18 to 24, Israel is viewed 43 % unfavorably and 38 % favorably. Among voters aged 24 to 35, it's a little better for Israel. Israel is viewed 43 % favorably, and 33 % unfavorably. Older voters overwhelmingly view Israel favorably. (The crosstabs are on Page 77.) Tell a young Democrat she is anti-Semitic, and these days she'll tell you she is against apartheid and genocide. She may also add that she is Jewish. Those numbers are for all voters. If they broke it down by age and party, there would be a large margin of error. But some of those young voters are Republicans, who are likely more favorable to Israel. (Although even with young Republicans, that's a question.) So it's rational to guess that all young Democrats under 35 now have a net unfavorable view of Israel. This opens up a massive policy fight in the Democratic Party that we are now just feeling the early tremors of. If you are an American or Israeli Jew who likes the idea of the strong bipartisan support Israel has enjoyed my entire lifetime, this is very bad news. We are headed into a policy war over arming and supporting Israel. Republicans will be mostly unified. Democrats will be deeply divided. Mostly be age. Guess how that plays out. Among Americans in general, 18 % view the Palestinian Authority favorably, and 48 % view it unfavorably. Among voters 18 to 24, 39 % view the Palestinian Authority favorably, and 35 % view it unfavorably. With 24 to 35 year olds, 31 % view the Palestinian Authority favorably, and 37 % view it unfavorably. But, again, it's rational to conclude that young Democrats under 35 now generally are on the side of the Palestinian Authority more than Israel. Which explains why so many young voters feel they could not live with themselves if they voted for "Genocide Joe" again. That is what they are saying. The most frightening thing I read in lots of stories about how young voters feel is this: The reason I find that terrifying is I agree with it, mostly. If I were 20 and pissed at Biden, I would probably feel exactly that way. Fuck him. Lose and go away, Genocide Joe. We'll deal with the consequences later. But no one will ever forget who nailed Joe Biden's coffin shut, and why. So if you ever want power again, Democrats, read the fucking memo. If Biden loses in 2024, no Democrat running in 2028 (assuming we still have elections) will be able to wholeheartedly embrace Israel. If it's four more years of Trump and Bibi, we'll probably have hundreds of thousands of dead Palestinians at that point. Mostly women and children. But, hey. What else were we supposed to do? Any Democrat who sympathizes with that point of view will be disqualified by young Democrats. In fairness, my guess is for most young voters turning against Biden it's the economy, stupid. They're not thinking long term strategy and world peace. They are thinking grocery bills, and gas prices. Many young voters are low information voters. One young Democratic activist interviewed said, correctly I think, that a lot of this problem will go away when a real campaign starts. Trump and Bibi are the ones who would gladly push Gaza into the sea if they could get away it. When young low information voters who are repulsed by "Genocide Joe" figure that out, which they will, some feelings will change. But, all that said, all it will take is 100,000 Democrats in Michigan (or a fraction of that) who feel like the voter I quoted above. And as of today we know for a fact there are at least that many Democrats who will gladly pound Joe Biden's coffin shut in Michigan to make a point. it's actually far worse than that. Nobody knows what the fuck is going on with polls that show Trump actually winning among the youngest voters. And, as recently as December, The Economist put out a poll showing voters under 30 favored Biden over Trump 53 to 24. But this Harvard/Harris poll is, to quote Biden, "over the top". It shows voters aged 18-24 (meanings ones mostly unable to vote in 2020) supporting Trump over Biden 55 to 34. (Page 102 in the crosstabs.) What the fuck? It's possible to dismiss it, since we're talking about a group of 134 people in one poll. But there are now so many polls and interviews of young voters that all point to a willingness to fire Biden for cause that it has to be taken seriously. I'm not arguing that Democrats should dump Biden. I completely agree with Allan Lichtman that would just make the problem worse. Then the splits in the Democratic Party would really come out. And I suspect The Economist poll is correct in this sense: if Democrats try very hard, we maybe could get a double digit margin against Trump among young voters, like in 2020. But Michigan just sent a huge message to Biden: we have the votes to fire you and your party if you don't give a shit how we feel. I've already started to put in my mind four more years of hell with Trump. The Israel part looks like this. The Arab world, who already has very negative views of the US, is already much worse. We are overwhelmingly viewed as Israel's partner in genocide. So forget about Trump and Bibi (or a successor who is worse) making any peace deals with Arabs. They'll instead focus on "containing" Hamas. All the demographic forces in Israel pushing it to be more and more far right will prevail. Whatever small space there is to make peace with Palestinians will be slammed shut, intentionally, by both the Israeli right and the US right, with Trump's blessing. Especially on what to do with those darn Palestinians. Which means the bloody and deadly siege Jon Stewart talked about in his piece this week. It's very easy to imagine over 100,000 dead Palestinians, deeper hate, deeper hopelessness. The idea that the IDF can somehow keep that from eventually exploding in the West Bank seems very unrealistic. So too does the idea that the Palestinian Authority will somehow become the IDF's surrogate in keeping the "bad Palestinians" in line. Because they are pretty much all "bad Palestinians" now, who - very predictably - have given up on peace. Too much hate, too much death, and too much time to dwell on it. So that will blow up, some way and some how. If I had a crystal ball and saw this as the future, which I think is a sober and realistic view, I would rather have it happen on Trump's watch. Then Democrats could organize and win the majority of Americans who will recoil against it in 2028. If most Democrats and Independents are recoiling against it under "Genocide Joe", it is almost certain that they will will recoil under the Bigger and Bloodier Trump 2.0 version. The young voter who said Trump winning in 2024 is the beginning of an even larger fight may be prescient.

Jon Stewart on Israel - Palestine | The Daily Show I would never underestimate the power of grassroots and spontaneous action in both Israel and the United States to force change. In Israel, there is this: The reason that could work is this: Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election People are ready to dump Bibi The Butcher. If an election were held today, Gaetz would win a commanding plurality. He could likely form a coalition with Lapid and a few other minor parties, if these numbers hold up. As that chart indicates, time may once again be working in Netankillyu's favor. Support for Likud plummeted, but appears to have hit bottom and may be starting to come back. Bibi is a master at dancing and pausing and saying whatever the fuck he has to say in order to keep surviving until tomorrow and eventually get much of what he wants. He has managed to block any real attempt at peace that way for about a generation. So the people demanding immediate change and an immediate election are smart. Nothing can get better under Netankillyu. He brought Israel to this point. He empowered Hamas. There is overwhelming support in Israel for an election "as early as possible." Israel Hayom poll: Overwhelming support for early election, Right loses majority Whether they actually intend to or not, polls of young voters in the US are basically starting to say this: "Either Bibi goes, or Biden goes, Your choice." Bibi wants a permanent occupation and siege. As Stewart says, that's not peace. It means next time they'll try to kill 30,000 Jews, even if they have to do it with kitchen utensils. The idea that Hamas, or the ideas that empower Hamas, are somehow going to go away is idiotic. Especially after the IDF just killed 30,000 Palestinians, with the body count growing by the day. The idea that more and deeper hopelessness and hatred - not for days, or weeks, or months, but for years to come is somehow going to end with "peace" is ridiculous. The most idiotic thing many Israelis are saying is that somehow seeking peace now rewards Hamas. Killing 30,000 Palestinians and counting, mostly women and kids, punishes Hamas. Whether Palestinians or the world like it or not, it just happened. Killing tens of thousands more Palestinians and creating as much hopelessness and hatred as possible is what rewards Hamas. Netankillyu has been an expert at doing that. Which may be why Israel is finally ready to fire him. Stewart may be older. But he is the adult in the room now, calling on the adults in the room to act. He's right.

It's an interesting poll. I'll be boring and detailed-oriented. Sorry. This particular poll - Harvard/Harris - always manages to come up with a result that skews toward Trump. That's not a criticism. But I'd factor in that this polling leans one way and not the other. I think it's partly because of how they phrase the questions. Asking people to choose "Israel v. Hamas" as a way to gauge support for Israel is like asking people to choose between "Jews v. Hitler". Of course I would choose Israel, and Jews. Hopefully everyone would. By framing it that way, the pollsters state that 82 % of voters support Israel over Hamas. That tells us nothing about how and why Biden might lose Michigan and the Presidency in November, thanks to Bibi Netanyahu's adamant opposition to peace with Palestinians. I still think the Biden Presidency is in mortal danger because since October young voters are disgusted, repulsed, and deeply angry about Biden on Gaza. Will young voters who lean Democratic vote for a POTUS who repulses and disgusts them? What to do about that is way more helpful to focus on than some bullshit measure of "support for Israel" if Democrats want to win. We all know Trump has opened up a slight lead in the polls. We all know it is because of Democrats and some Independents abandoning Biden. Not Trump Republicans, who never supported him. The statement that probably hurts Biden the most in that poll is this: Immigration matters, too. But if you just go by the numbers 71 % of voters being concerned about prices is about the biggest majority in that poll. There's no way to prove it. But when people say they approve of the Trump Presidency, they are clearly not talking about Jan. 6th, after they fired him. Or his handling of COVID, which is partly why they fired him. They are talking about this, probably, which I posted in another thread and will repost here: Why Americans pine for the Trump economy Again, to be boring and technical, that headline is not quite right. There is no poll that says Americans "pine" for the "Trump economy" because prices were lower. But it makes sense that if they were given a choice between gas prices going up 33 % or 10 %, voters would rather have cheaper gas. Duh! If this election is a referendum on Bidenflation, Trump will win. That survey says that people see lower prescription drug prices as one of Biden's biggest accomplishments. Trump tried and failed to repeal Obamacare, and the support it provides for affordable health care and not denying people insurance when they get sick. Where is that debate? When we have that debate, these poll numbers may change. I actually take that as great news for Biden and Democrats. And it helps explain why Democrats, despite all the pessimism, are mostly winning actual elections and doing at least okay in polls. The 45 % of Americans who say things are getting worse are heavily skewed to MAGA Republicans. Some of whom are probably doing very well, but who are ideologically committed to the idea that the sky is falling, anyway. The fact that almost 20 % of Americans no longer feel they are doing worse is very significant. To be even more detailed, in the cross tabs 59 % of Republicans say right now their personal financial situation is getting worse. Is that true? Probably not. Should anyone care? Not really. What that probably tells us is they think Biden sucks. What a shocker! More concerning is that 48 % of Independents say their personal financial situation is getting worse, versus 52 % who say it is improving or staying the same. Pew says Biden won 52 % of Independents in 2020, compared to only 42 % who voted for Hillary in 2016. If the economy keeps growing, these numbers do not preclude 52 % of Independents from voting for Biden again. Even if it is simply because he is less of a crook, and there will be less chaos. A recent Fidelity survey found that 2 in 3 Americans think their personal financial situation will be better in 2024. 2024 certainly seems to be turning out that way so far. The stock market keeps reaching new highs. Wages have now been outstripping inflation for about a year. So when you factor out a MAGA minority that is committed to pessimism under Biden, it's not at all clear that most people feel the Biden economy sucks. But denying that people legitimately miss lower gas prices or lower grocery bills doesn't make any sense. Trump will beat that to death. He should. Here's another key finding of that poll that should worry Trump, and that Democrats will beat to death: Most political commentators see that New York case as the weakest link in the chain. Even Jeb Bush wrote a piece in the WSJ saying this judge's ruling was horrible. Apparently most Americans disagree, Jeb! The strongest link, which polls have proven for several years now, is that the vast majority of Democrats and Independents - plus maybe 20 % of Republicans - are absolutely appalled by what Trump did on Jan. 6th. And his lies and undermining of democracy. To my point, in the 200 pages of crosstabs 59 % of Independents say "Trump has committed crimes for which he should be convicted." That whole legal thing has yet to play out. But the majority of Independents already think Trump is guilty. So you can argue this one either way. Despite the fact that a majority of Americans agree with a judge that Trump is a crook, and in general they think Trump committed crimes, they still say they approve of his Presidency and will vote for him. Is that real? Probably, as a way people feel. Can we count on it to stick when the campaign gets going and people are focused on whether they really want Trump back, as Democrats are reminding voters what that really means? And as he is on trial for Jan. 6th? Those are very different questions. I also think part of how people feel right now is they are mostly hearing this about Trump: TRUMP IS WINNING. Donald Trump is a God, who is kicking the shit out of his opponents without even lifting a finger. TRUMP IS LOVED. TRUMP IS ADORED. TRUMP WINS. TRUMP WINS. TRUMP WINS. That's not even an opinion. That's a fact. Everybody likes a winner. Once this is an actual fight between Biden and Trump, and we learn Joe Biden can and will fight, and we talk about how Trump cut taxes for billionaires like himself while he tried to kill Obamacare, things may change. I'm way more worried about progressive Democrats and centrist Independents turning against Biden than I am about the MAGA minority. MAGA has always viewed Biden as an illegitimate President who didn't even win. On the question of progressive Democrats dumping Biden, mostly by just not voting, the polls and outcomes could not possibly be clearer. We know for a fact that Hillary lost in 2016 because a lot of Democrats who hate Trump would not vote for Hillary. In Michigan. Where, right now, the same people are saying they can't stomach Biden. We know for a fact that Trump is now leading in the polls because lots of young Democrats and some Independents are saying they can't stomach Biden. If Democrats don't focus on that, we will lose.

I already posted this in a different thread where you posted the same betting odds. So I will repeat it here. In 2016 the same betting odds gave Hillary an 88 % chance of winning and Trump a 13 % chance of winning. They were wrong ................... by a landslide. In 2016 Lichtman predicted Trump would win. He was right. If you want to believe Trump will win by a landslide, @EmmetK, I would suggest you go with these facts: Why Americans pine for the Trump economy That's a great recent article on why people may be feeling nostalgia for the "Trump economy". Here's a comparison of their first three years: Gas prices up 33 % under Biden and 10 % under Trump. Groceries up 21 % under Biden and 2 % under Trump New vehicles up 19 % under Biden and down 1 % under Trump. Case closed. If I wanted to make an argument for why Trump will win, I'd go with this. Forget about impeachment or immigration, mostly. I'd just make the election about inflation. And Trump is the best Republican to make this case. Since he actually was the President when prices were so much lower. And therein lies the problem that smart Republicans understand and keep talking about. How likely is it that Donald Trump can make the election about anything other than Donald Trump? Are there betting odds for that, @EmmetK? Because, if there are, my guess is that it is 100 % likely Trump will make the election about Trump, and not inflation. He has some very disciplined campaign managers now who I am sure will keep him on message. Except on most days, where he goes off message and talks about how Putin can attack NATO allies. And he wants to win so he can get revenge. And that's before he's pressed by Biden and the media on whether he will push for a national abortion ban and an official federal policy of climate change denial. Whether Trump is on message or not, Dementia Joe and Democrats will be on message about democracy, abortion, and all the good economic news that counters the Republican message that the economy sucks. Assuming people believe that record middle class net worth, record stock markets, record low unemployment, and now 3 % inflation are all actually good economic news. If I were betting I would definitely double down on Lichtman's ideas that voters are smart. And ultimately the fundamentals matter most. In addition to Trump's inability to not make an election he is in about Trump, here's something else to worry about, @EmmetK. If inflation and higher prices are going to drive the election and lead to a Republican landslide, why didn't that happen in 2022? Inflation was 7.1 % in November 2022, double where it is today. Most of that big increase in gas prices and groceries had happened by November 2022. And yet Republicans won 9 House seats. Democrats gained one Senate seat. If 7 % inflation wasn't high enough or intense enough to deliver a Republican red wave in 2022, how exactly does 3 % inflation deliver a Republican landslide in 2024? If you add the whole misery index, CPI + unemployment, it is lower today than the month Trump left office after losing. Why rehire the guy who delivered more misery? I think there is definitely nostalgia for the "Trump economy". Which basically means lower prices. Not Trump's all around psychodrama and lies. But when Trump makes the election about Trump, and Biden makes it about democracy and abortion and taking the good economy with the bad, how does 3 % inflation lock in a Trump landslide? Help me out here. I actually do think right now Israel is a bigger problem for Biden than inflation. That is close to being an objective fact. When inflation was at its worst, Biden and Trump were in a dead heat. That started to change in October 2023. While it may not be 100 % about Israel, that makes a lot more sense than saying the problem is Nov. 2023 was soaring inflation. And the polls make it crystal clear the people who shifted in the last months of 2023 were mostly younger voters, who identify mostly as Democrats. Plus some Independents. That's who Biden has to worry about most.

Sorry to hear that. I assume you're talking about Donald Trump, of course. 😉 Actually, by coincidence, I had a lovely dinner last night with a sister-in-law who was born in Canada but is now a dual citizen, and her (still) Canadian brother and his wife who are escaping the Canadian cold . And so I got a first hand account of some of Canada's version of the culture war backlash. Sadly, MCGA just doesn't have the ring of MAGA. In some ways I take it as a compliment. It amazes me still, and makes me very proud of my community, that during our lifetimes we won these huge victories like same sex marriage that really did overturn the way things have been .............. well ................. always. So the fact that some people want to turn things back is to be expected. Buckle your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy ride. The good news is the overwhelming majority of young people, including conservative young people, aren't going back. I hope. But that hasn't stopped Republicans from passing a slew of anti-LGBTQ laws in red states. To bring it back to All Of Us Strangers and its director, Andrew Haigh, one of the interesting questions in some interviews is whether Gen Z Gay men would even get a movie like this. Since so much of it is based on the ghosts of the past - AIDS being a death sentence, being Gay still being a crime basically. Haigh said it's a very personal film, since that was the world he grew up Gay in. One way that surfaces in the movie is the older Adam uses "queer" and his young lover uses "Gay." Because when Adam was a kid "Gay" was always meant as a put down. But for the reasons you say I have to imagine life still isn't a bowl of cherries for Gay kids in Canada and the US. And it's certainly not for trans kids.

A long article and a long interview, both of which I found very on target about whether Joe Biden is a drag on the Democratic Party. The Brokered Convention That Could Break the Democrats Those who want to replace Biden on the 2024 ticket are glossing over the brutality and chaos that would ensure. I was both nodding and laughing when I read that article. Because the author gets it. I could argue that he is only painting one side of the picture: the bad things that could happen if Biden stepped aside (or just died between now and November. But I feel the way he does. The bad things he goes through are almost certain to happen. If Democrats suddenly picked someone other than Biden it would tear the party apart. And no poll in any state, country, or part of the universe suggests [put in the name of any Democrat] would do any better against Trump. Dumping Biden would be lots of guaranteed pain for little or no gain. Like the author, I think it would probably leave Democrats in worse shape. And Lichtman would certainly agree. It would be two more nails in the coffin - no incumbent and party food fight - out of his 13 Keys. Hunter Walker's and Luppe B. Luppen's "The Truce: Progressives, Centrists and the Future of the Democratic Party" That book, which is brand new, is mentioned in the first article. It adds lots of depth to an argument about why hoping Joe Biden goes away could be a death wish for Democrats who care about unity and winning in 2024. I just learned about the book. But there's a great 27 minute podcast interview in that hyperlink that goes over some of the main points with the authors. I think pretty much everyone does underestimate Biden's ability to knit people in his party together - whether it comes to passing laws, or winning elections. As the authors argue, 2016 was a complete disaster for Democrats. In large part because of the unresolved food fight between Hillarycrats and Sandernistas. Biden was able to do a better job of unifying the party in 2020. It of course helped that Trump is the great unifier of Democrats and (sometimes) Independents who want anyone but Trump. But Biden did a lot of work, as the authors argue, to bring progressive and centrists together and turn compromise ideas into laws. If you take Biden out of the equation, would unity among Democrats be harder to achieve? Probably, I think. For sure, the risk of trying it in 2024 doesn't make much sense to me. No matter how old Biden is. It's just very hard for me to believe that if you give voters the words "chaos" and "stability" and ask them to pick who stands for what, most voters would say Trump and Speaker McCarthy/Johnson/Maybe Some Other Guy would be the poster children for "stability". This also puts Gaza and "Genocide Joe" in a somewhat different light. It is an indicator that, at any minute and for any reason, "the truce" could end. And progressives and centrist Democrats could be in open war. There is a bit of that with Gaza already. But it makes sense that this is something that was not really in the control of Biden, or the United States. The things that were under Democrats' control - like replacing Pelosi with a new leader and recovering from the debacle of Build Back Better - actually did work in a relatively unified and low conflict way. Gaza, and the bombing of it, has mostly been in the control of Bibi Netanyahu and Hamas. That is not a good place for Biden, or anyone, to be. It would be an even greater tragedy if Bibi and Hamas, in addition to fucking up peace in Israel, also manage to fuck up the truce Biden did help build among Democrats. Call me an optimist. But I at least hope that lots of Millennials and Gen Z will view it this way by November. Not all young voters are progressive. And not all progressives are young. But these authors are right that younger progressives were able to actually win some of what they wanted by having Biden (and Obama) build political and legislative coalitions that could do it. If they elect Trump, in large part by just not voting or voting third party, that all goes bye bye. That's exactly what happened in 2017. Or, to put it in the even bleaker terms the author of the first article uses:

Glad you liked the film. I read several interviews with the director, Andrew Haigh. He wanted to leave what really happened open to interpretation, so that people talked about the movie after the movie. He succeeded! He also said one of the sub-plots he wrote into the movie is that Adam, thanks to Harry, was finally able to get out of his lonely world and find love - with Harry. You can imagine that however you want to. But ending the movie with "The Power Of Love" wasn't subtle. Of the maybe half dozen articles/interviews I read, this interview with Haigh, and this article in Empire which quotes Haigh on key points, were the most helpful in elaborating what Haigh's intentions and subtexts were. There's spoilers in both articles for anyone who hasn't seen the film. I'll quote what Haigh said in the Empire article about whether most of the movie existed inside Adam's head: So you can choose to view it however you want. The feeling that resonated for me is that whether you think some of the people we meet in the film are really ghosts, or this is all just happening in Adam's head, Haigh said he wanted to make a "ghost story". So Adam is haunted, one way or the other. In a different interview he said he could have had a much happier and simplistic ending. But he preferred a more difficult ending, because that is how life actually is most of the time. That resonated for me, too. Certainly for someone like Adam. That New York Times article I hyperlinked above talked about how this film, like many other recent LGBTQ films, provide a form of "emotional reparations" for Gay men who grew up in a world that was a lot less tolerant to Gay men than the one we live in today. That works for me. Andrew was a deeply wounded guy. The point Haigh clearly wanted to make is that, in the end, there was healing and moving on for Adam. He was able to find love. But in a difficult way. For me, the final plot twist with Harry wasn't the most interesting part of the movie. I would have been fine with the simpler happy ending Haigh did not choose. What resonated the deepest for me were the scenes with Adams parents. Because that is a form of haunting I feel, and I think many if not most Gay men feel. I think what you said is correct: you can share nothing with your parents, and then it's too late. But I think Haigh made it more complicated than that. Even if you do get to share, in the ghostly way Adam got to, it's still not ever going to be quite right. Here's what Haigh said, which I'll quote extensively. Because I think he really nailed it. I was sobbing during that scene. Because it brought up all the feelings with my own Mom and Dad, when I came out to them as an adult. My Mom was textbook correct, in saying, "We love you any way you are." Then she asked me if there was anything else I needed to tell them. Which I'm pretty sure meant, "Are you telling us this because you are dying of AIDS?" All I said is, "I'm fine. I'm healthy." My Dad took having a Gay son very hard. He read and thought and came around. Sort of. So my point is that is was definitely okay, and maybe even good. But it was never great. And, like Haigh, it was easy for me to be in an empathetic space, even though I was still the kid that was strange and seeking acceptance. I don't think my parents, lifelong Catholics, could every completely embrace the idea of having a Gay son. But that was okay. Like Haigh said, it's complicated and messy. One of the best sets of experiences I had with my Dad was the last five years or so of his life, when my Mom was in a nursing home with dementia and he deeply missed his lifelong partner in crime. I spent a lot of time with him, just bullshitting. And the nice thing is at that point it had nothing to do with being Gay, or sexuality. It was just about love and caring between a father and son. Even if there were elements of it that were better left unsaid. Haigh said in one of those interviews that his own Dad, who died of dementia, at one point forgot that his son was Gay. Haigh said that didn't really matter to him at that point, either. I can relate. It was a really beautiful, wise, and deep movie that captured a lot of my experience about growing up Gay.

Two long articles that go in different directions. Both of which - or all of which - are probably partially true. You don't have to read either, @EmmetK. We all know facts and analysis are not your thing. The GOP Is Burning Bridges With Young Voters for Generations—Thanks to Trump That rings true. The main reason it rings true is simply an objective fact. Young voters proved by voting that they are repulsed by Trump, MAGA, and the ideas they represent. Put abortion and climate change at the top of the list. They not only proved that in November 2020. They have proved it in basically every election at every level of government since. The young Wisconsin voters who changed the state's Supreme Court because of abortion don't seem likely to suddenly want Trump in office . So he can try some kind of national abortion ban by executive decree. So it seems unlikely that young voters who carried Biden to victory in 2020 and are now pissed at him, in particular for being "Genocide Joe" to Bibi Netanyahu's mad bomber, are going to vote for Trump. But this goes to the heart of all your incorrect thinking about polls, @EmmetK. There are two different but related things happening. In Biden/Trump matchups, Trump is now winning. Why? In large part because young voters are either not supporting Biden, or saying they will support Trump. Then when you add more names - RFK, West, Stein - it's the same thing. The polls that add all the names make what is really happening the clearest. When they are given five choices, not two, young voters in particular don't support Trump any more than exit polls say they supported him in 2020. Which is to say, young people are wildly opposed to Trump, as the author above says. At the same time, it's becoming clearer and clearer that young voters don't like Joe Biden and what his administration is doing. The destruction of Gaza and the killing of 30,000 Palestinians has clearly been a tipping point. Polls are now screaming it, consistently. So they say they will vote for RFK, or West, or Stein. When you subtract Biden's vote, it makes Trump's lead bigger But, either way, there is no question that Trump is now slightly leading in national polls for the first time. And there is no question that it is specifically because of young voters who specifically wanted to get rid of Trump in 2020. But are now either sour with Biden, or simply done with Biden. The big thing we don't know is exactly how deep the animosity toward Biden and his policies goes among young voters. It seems very likely that is a work in progress. And Democrats should be deeply worried. This second article is long and all over the map. But it is probably mostly correct for that reason. Whatever is happening in the polls right now, it is complicated. And probably no one knows or can predict what it actually means for November. What Democrats’ panic over young voters misses It is shocking that since October there's been a series of polls saying Trump is now tied or even slightly ahead of Biden with the young voters who nailed Trump's coffin shut by huge margins in 2020. As the article notes, such huge swings among particular voting cohorts rarely happen. And need to be viewed with skepticism. It is easy for me to get my mind around why young voters are repulsed by Biden's support for what they see as genocide in Gaza. It's harder for me to believe that the same voters would elect Trump. Who will give Bibi a blank check to kill as many Palestinians as he wants. The fact that many of the young voters who elected Biden have shifted from being disappointed in him to being repulsed by him doesn't make Trump any less repulsive to them, as the Gen Z author above argues. I think there are three things that are relatively certain at this point. First, the levels of support currently shown for RFK, Stein, and West are not going to hold. That was my point above. That Vox article basically says that every polling expert who knows anything about polling knows that third party support in the early stages of election cycles NEVER translates to as much support when people actually vote. So that will mostly help Biden. Many, but not all, voters who moved away from him to some other name will move back. In part because they will decide they are even more repulsed by Trump. It still could be enough to nail Biden's coffin shut, though. Just like Stein nailed Hillary's coffin shut in 2016. Thanks, Jill! Asshole! Second, this is incredibly bad news for Biden, no matter what you make of both articles. As a Democrat, I can rationalize this away easily enough. Two of my nephews expressed this view of Biden recently. They understand why Democrats are better off running with an incumbent. But they just DO NOT want this incumbent! They almost shouted it. But, as an example of low information voting, they had no idea who John Kasich is. Or why compromise-oriented Democrats like me like him. And these two are very smart college graduates. So I can only imagine what young voters who get their information off Tik Tok know. Or, more importantly, don't know. So it is very easy for me to believe some pollster calls some Gen Z voter (if they ever answer their phone) who is pissed at "Genocide Joe". And they say they will vote for RFK or Stein or West - or even Trump. But once Biden reminds them that Trump's SCOTUS killed his student loan cancellation plan, and that Trump would be better to Bibi and worse to Palestinians, and that Trump mostly wants tax breaks to billionaires and abortion bans, that may change. Who the fuck knows, really? Nobody knows, really. But it is a monumental roll of the dice on the part of Biden and Democrats to assume young voters don't really mean it. Because they do really mean it. They did nail Trump's coffin shut in 2020. In 2024 they could take the nails out of the coffin and make him President again. They don't even have to vote for Trump, which I think is unlikely. They just have to vote third party. Or, most likely, not vote at all. Third, this is exactly why I think Allan Lichtman will once again be right in the end. One of his main messages is that the polls are fickle. And that what matters is the fundamentals. This is a textbook example of it. We know for a fact that in every election since 1984 polls at one point or another showed either the Democrat or Republican winning. Including in 2016, when a few polls on a good day did show Trump with a tiny lead. And yet somehow Lichtman got it right every time - with a small caveat about Gore in 2000, who did win the popular vote and lost by a handful of votes in one state that are still kind of an historical black hole. If I go with Lichtman's correct bets so far, and I had to bet $100,000 today, I'd bet it on Biden. Mostly because, as of February 2024, it seems like the fundamentals - as Lichtman outlines them - are on Biden's side. Another way of saying it is that polls based on low information young voters who get their news off Tik Tok probably are very fickle. They could easily change again six months from now. Both articles are right that the election hasn't really started. When we get to the part where we talk about how Trump killed Roe v. Wade, and how he wants abortion bans and a firm policy of climate change denial, that may change how many young people feel. But both articles seem spot on about young voters who are not at all enamored of EITHER political party. As a Democrat, I mostly view this as a good wake up call. And Gaza is a perfect example. It's understandable that Biden making vague statements about caution while 30,000 Palestinians, mostly women and kids, are slaughtered is just not going to cut it as policy. Either Democrats decide they're willing to take one for Bibi. Or they have to pay attention to why young voters have a deepening feeling of repulsion from Biden. Even if it is mostly based on what they see on Tik Tok. The repulsion over Gaza is a fact. But it's also a symbol for all the other ways Democrats (or Republicans, but not Trump) are going to have to work harder to win and keep the votes of Millennials and Gen Z. By coming up with policies and accomplishments that they actually like, and are not repulsed by.

Bot related. But speaking of old US ex-Presidents, this guy doesn't sound crazy. He sounds prescient.

Thank you. That's my point. It's easy for me to see why Biden has a problem with younger voters who view Trump as anathema. I have a lot of nieces and nephews. The oldest ones are Gen X. And while they tend to be more conservative, like the generation that grew up under Reagan (and the dismantling of the USSR), they don't like MAGA and old people bickering. The Millennial and Gen Z cohort can't wait for generational change. And I just keep repeating I can't wait, either. One could argue Trump and Biden look like the last leaders of the Soviet Union. That's fair. But what's interesting is those leaders did actually symbolize a corrupt Communist economy that was aging and about to collapse. That's hardly the United States today. I just wish I had bought even more semiconductor stocks. I'm up almost 100 % since last Fall on FNGU. Biden may be having a hard time getting his ideas across. The US stock market, and American-led technological innovations, are speaking with a roar. One of my nephews said it best recently. This food fight in the US will end when Baby Boomers age out. Trump is a Boomer, as was Bush 43 and Clinton. Biden is too old to be a Boomer. Happily, the resilience of the US economy, and the global capitalist economy, does not really depend on Biden or Trump. Russia will only be a tiny part of it. Enjoy your time out. Eat some vegetables. Tragic, isn't it? Which is why as a Gay man and American I am grateful that we have Vladimir Putin's Russia to offer the world light and hope. Plus decency, kindness, and fairness.

It's Taiwan, actually. That's the point. Master Xi is tolerating his sadistic and genocidal lapdog because it tests whether Master Xi can get away with a bloodbath in Taiwan. So far, survey says, "no". And somehow Dementia Joe managed to get a huge bill on US semiconductor factories passed. Let's check back on that in a decade. This is one reason why millions of Russians will be turned into fertilizer in Vlad's Glorious Wartime Fertilizer economy. Republicans have a hard on for confronting or containing China. So even if the MAGA folks don't give a shit about Ukraine and democracy, the bipartisan consensus on NATO and alliances will hold. Because Republicans, despite Trump, won't want to to encourage Master Xi to go after Taiwan like Murderous Vlad is going after Ukraine. Democrats, and the rest of the planet, seem to understand that a war between China and the US would be a global disaster that must be avoided. Whereas a regional war that primarily turns Russians into fertilizer is tolerable. We know this because Vlad's Glorious Wartime Fertilizer Economy is seemingly working well for Russia. Have fun! That's not a prediction, or a hope. It's a tragedy. Why would a country want a genocidal sadist as a leader who intentionally turns his people into fertilizer? But, hey, you guys have a free and fair election coming up. As it happens, just read a new article on the topic in one of our best sources of lies and US genocide propaganda, Politico The West tried to crush Russia’s economy. Why hasn’t it worked? Great article that nicely summarizes most of the main reasons why. I had no idea what to expect when all the sanctions hit. I don't think anyone did, really. Partly because it's never been done before. But just think about that. One thing about the Cold War is it was all about the US and USSR not fucking with each other. So now we're in a situation where most of the leading economies in the world have agreed, "Let's just let Murderous Vlad go to economic time out for the rest of our lifetimes." If you think that says something good about Russia, or is good news for Russia, go ahead and believe it. Master Xi will still buy your oil. India will buy your weapons, even as they form strategic alliances with the US. Everyone likes cheap shit being sold by a desperate sadist. Personally, I think this is pretty good news for the world. Russia is in economic time out for a very long time. If Russia wants Vlad's Glorious Wartime Fertilizer Economy, it's your choice. Since Russia is one of the few democracies in the world, of course. 😉 Like I said, there is money to be made turning Russians into fertilizer. And Vlad and his kleptocrats will make it. You are right that the US imprisons more people than Russia. But at least we don't turn them into fertilizer. 😲 But if it works for you, your choice. The long term consequences are the same. Historians will debate what ended the USSR forever. But US technology was one of the big reasons. In two ways. Directly, we won an arms race that was in part based on superior technologies. Vlad now thinks he can win that game. Ha ha. Second, the overwhelming force of US and Western technology was just financially too much for the USSR. The Soviet Union actually did a good job at industrialization and factories. GDP growth in the 50's and 60's was great for you. But the digital economy didn't work so well for the USSR. And it isn't working so well for Russia, it seems. Funny, since Russia is all about democracy and open information and innovation. But, hey, you will always have fertilizer and oil and weapons from North Korea and Iran. If you think that's how you win in the end, good for you. Might want to read some history, though. By the way, that article above confirms everything you are saying about how all US journalism is propaganda designed to promote US genocide, US hegemony, and Mostly Super Bad American Shit all over the planet. Wheras Vlad's Russia and "news" is docile, decent, and kind. Obviously the headline screams that US propaganda will do anything it takes to make it seem like US and Western policies against Russia are working perfectly. As it happens, I went to college with the co-founder of Politico and we worked on the student newspaper together. So I can confirm that he is deeply committed to US propaganda, and the overarching goal of US genocide. We used to sit around and drink beer as college students and speculate about how to create crappy stories that deceive people and promote mass murder. Which is obviously what Politico does. It's just that Americans and the rest of the world are too stupid to figure it out. That said, the plan worked. When I went to college the Cold War was still raging. So you had the USSR and Pravda, promoter of kindness and decency. And the US and the New York Times, promoter of genocide. Obviously, genocide won. The USSR is history and the US/NATO doctrine of genocide and lies won. Democracy is of course just a lie that billions of people have been fooled into. Which is why Vlad is the best. In addition to figuring out how to turn Russians into fertilizer, he's one of the few leaders left that will tell you the truth! Other than Trump, of course.

That picture is a great example of my point about Russia being outside the cultural mainstream for the rest of our lifetimes. First, @Moses, thanks for being honest about Russia's "strong" homophobia. And your point about Poland makes sense. Russia is certainly not the only place in the world with a conservative and homophobic government. But who the fuck wants to live in Zakrzówek? It's not exactly Ibiza or Puerto Vallarta. I don't think we're missing much, really. Apparently, two groups that do not want to, or can't, live in Zakrzówek are Poles, and Jews. I say Poles because the population of Zakrzówek declined from 7,212 in 2002 to 6,243 in 2021. At least you can't blame that on The Gays! IMHO I think we should let them have their homophobic sign. At least it adds a hint of color to a boring place no one wants to live in anymore. Jews may have wanted to live there at one point. But they didn't really have a choice, either. So it's an extreme example of everything that is backward and indecent and cruel. And has been for a long time, it seems. Moscow is an explosion of Gay culture compared to Zakrzówek, I suspect. But the LGBTQ movement there is still fucked. Like Jews in Poland in 1942, unfortunately you are on the wrong side of history. It is a tragedy . Especially because, these days, most of the rest of the world is on the right side of history.

A statement like that reflects your ignorance, or perhaps I should say inexperience, of the fabric of democracy and social change And it also is a great example of the price people will pay in Russia for Murderous Vlad's genocide. At least the price LGBTQ people will pay. On an issue like LGBTQ rights, it's just a given that almost every government everywhere will be behind the curve - 100 % of the time. This was certainly true in the US. We're an easy minority to target and discriminate against. We know this because it has actually happened for almost all of human history. It was a disappointment, but not a surprise, that when Obama was running in 2008 he was against same sex marriage. Same sex marriage lost a key vote in California the same night Obama won in 2008. Biden actually was more ahead of the curve than most politicians. He has survived in politics as long as he has by being cautious. And never getting too far ahead of the curve. But on same sex marriage, I think the fact that he came out relatively early showed what has always been in his heart. Regardless, it took decades of fighting politicians like Biden to even begin to get into the edges of the political mainstream on same sex marriage. Vlad is of course doing the opposite. Appeasing the conservative values of his base. And gaining support by doing it. I can hardly blame him for that, compared to the genocide in Ukraine for example. Again, we're such an easy target. And always have been. How could a genocidal sadist resist? At least he's not rounding The Gays up and throwing them in prison. Yet. Russia is, by Vlad's choice, now out of the Western economic, political, and cultural mainstream for decades to come. And it's fine if a lot of Russians, even the majority, say, "Good riddance." Vlad will do a great job with his kleptocrats of building an economy that relies on weapons, fossil fuels, and turning millions of Russians into fertilizer. There's money to be made in doing so, as you noted. Good for you. I made 15 % in one day on Thursday on SOXL and FNGU, which are exchange traded funds of all the big semiconductor and digital economy names. We now have an economic divide where the US leads the development of many of the most important technologies of our time. And Vlad increasingly excels at turning Russians into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Gays will pay a price because this not only limits Russian exposure to high end technology and free trade. It also limits and in fact pretty much ends the grassroots and personal cultural exchanges that have done a huge amount for the LGBTQ movement all over the world. Gay tourists are probably #1 on the list of Gay ambassadors. Except tourists don't want to visit Genocide World anymore. Let alone Gay tourists. One of my organizing partners in crime took what worked in the US on same sex marriage and brought it to Ireland and made it work. On a national referendum. In one of the most Catholic countries in the world. So that's the kind of thing that probably would NOT have happened in Russia a decade ago, anyway. But it sure as shit won't happen now. Thank your sadist for that. Not Grandpa Joe. Of course, most Russians don't view this as paying a price, at all. They view it as Vlad's noble defense of traditional Russian values. You can have the 20th century and genocide, if you prefer. Or the 19th century and genocide, even. America, and the global LGBTQ movement, can and will build the 21st century without you. Maybe you can catch up in the 22nd century. But that's for another lifetime. For now, you're just out of the mainstream for decades to come. But enjoy your beer.

We're back to square one. What did facts do to you? Why does it seem to hurt so deep and so bad? Fact: Ross Perot polled in June 1992 at 39 % Fact: Ross Perot got 19 % of the vote in November 1992. Fact: Ross Perot polled 19 % in May 1996 Fact: Ross Perot got 8 % of the vote in November 1996. You can do the same with any election/ Every independent polled way better than the vote share they actually got. That's even more likely to happen this year given how people feel about Trump. The good news for Biden is a lot of those West and Stein voters, in particular, are going to end up voting for Biden. The bad news for Biden is even if that's true, he looks like he is in serious danger of losing Michigan, anyway. Whether people pissed at him about "genocide" vote for RFK, or West, or Stein, or just don't vote is a question of slight variations in the size of the nails in the coffin. Biden needs a committed base that will get out to vote. He had that in 2020. He has a serious base problem in 2024. And it is showing in Michigan, in particular. The other good news for Biden is it's early in 2024. So he has time to do something about it. Or maybe the people who obviously turned against Biden will change their mind. But that seems like a very hollow hope. Particularly when the most likely scenario between now and November is that Bibi will just keep dropping bombs and the death toll will keep rising, while nothing else happens. As predicted, it's turning into a long term quagmire for Israel. And it looks more and more like a potential death sentence for Biden.

Actually, Trump has Netanyahu. It's hard not to read the polls and think the issue is not Dementia Joe. If there is a Joe Biden that is a disaster for Democrats, it is "Genocide Joe". 2024 ELECTIONS Michigan may soon show just how badly Biden’s cease-fire stance is hurting him The polls, picture, and quote all speak for themselves. Biden has a huge Michigan problem. And he can thank Bibi Netankillyu for it, more than Trump. Something happened in October. As you can see from the RCP poll above, for most of 2023 the race was a toss up. There was endless talk about inflation, and immigration, and Biden's age all through 2023. And the polls were stable, with either Biden or Trump with a slight statistical lead of maybe one percent. Then it changed after October. Trump built a lead of close to three percent at one point in the RCP average. All this may be coincidence. But Oct. 18th, when Biden actually was in Israel, right after the attack, was the last time he was tied with Trump (43.9 % each) in the RCP national average. Then as the 2,000 pound bombs started to drop and the headlines became about thousands and then tens of thousands of dead innocent Palestinians, Biden's poll numbers just kept getting worse. Again, maybe it is a coincidence. But that period from mid-October to late November when Trump opened up a lead over Biden nationally is when the news was all about the endless slaughter of innocent Palestinian women and children. The more Palestinian children Bibi Netanyahu kills, the better Trump does in US polls. Especially in Michigan. I'm not sure how Biden stops Bibi, or Israelis, from the indiscriminate slaughter of Palestinian children. That is now a huge problem for him. Biden's problem is particularly clear in Michigan. And as that story above suggests, a lot of it has to do with young voters who are hardly MAGA supporters. And Palestinian voters, or their friends and allies, who feel this is genocide. Many Palestinian Americans have family members being killed in Gaza. The RCP Michigan polls are very clear. RCP cites nine Michigan polls taken before the October 7th Hamas attack. Biden led in five, Trump led in one, and three were tied. The three polls taken in August, September, and early October 2023 all showed Biden leading slightly in Michigan. There are eleven polls taken in Michigan since Oct. 7th, most of which are counted in the current RCP average. Trump leads in nine of them, Biden in only one, and one is a tie. The current RCP Michigan average is Trump +4.6 %. There's only one pollster on that list where you can do a clear comparison of polls by the same pollster before and after Oct. 7th. In an August 2023 poll EPIC-MRA showed Biden with a one point lead in Michigan. By late November 2023 Trump led by five points, according to the same pollster. In a Feb. 2024 poll just out by EPIC-MRA Trump leads by four points in Michigan. This is no doubt why Democrats in Michigan are freaking out. Again, the shifting polls themselves seem to be clear about why this is happening. If this does not change, Trump will win. Allan Lichtman will be wrong for the first time since 1984. Although, as I said in that thread, he has NOT made a formal prediction yet. And he made clear what happens with these wars is part of the reason why. It is a fact that Biden was leading in the Michigan polls before Bibi starting dropping the bombs. Once Bibi lashed out, Biden started to lose Michigan. If he loses Michigan, he loses the Presidency. Maybe Trump should make Bibi his Veep. Since Bibi as much as anyone will get him elected. And Bibi is wildly unpopular in Israel. Biden currently has a 0.6 % lead in Pennsylvania, according to RCP. If you look at those polls, they also confirm something happened in October. There were three polls in Pennsylvania in the 60 days before October 7th. Biden led in two of them, with the average of the three being Biden +0.7 %. There were three polls taken in late October and early November in Pennsylvania. Trump led in all three, with the average being Trump +3.7. In Pennsylvania the race has now flipped back to Biden, ever so slightly. Trump currently has a 0.6 % lead in Wisconsin. There are not enough polls to reach any conclusion on trends. But Biden's last poll lead in Wisconsin was in late October 2023. Biden's poll numbers in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are all worse than Michigan. So if Biden loses those three but keeps Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he has 255 electoral votes. Michigan has 15. So it's the tipping point to a Biden victory. One final extremely lopsided polling result. Among Democrats, 32 % say Biden is being "too supportive" of Israel. Only 1 % of Democrats say Biden is "not being supportive enough" of Israel. A plurality of Democrats, 43 %, say what Biden is doing is "about right", and the rest are unsure. The problem for Biden is that 2024 is clearly going to be a base election. People in the middle don't want either candidate. So if a third of Biden's base is open to the idea that he is Genocide Joe, he has a very serious problem with his base. My hope, like most Democrats, is that as inflation went down and the economy grew Biden's poll numbers would grow, too. So far, nothing about the economy has changed that calculus. But if the calculus has changed to include the body count of dead Palestinian women and children, that can seemingly only get worse. There is no plan for Gaza, and no plan for the West Bank. Other than vague talk about a two state solution, which the leader of Israel opposes, as the bombs keep dropping. The way this may be hurting Biden the most is by reinforcing the sense that he is old and not in control of events. If Trump wins, that problem solves itself. Trump would seemingly do fine among the MAGA base if he held up a sign saying, "Duh! Drop more bombs. Kill more Palestinians, stupid!" It could be like 2016 all over again in Michigan. Back then it was the factory jobs, stupid. Now it seems like it's the genocide, stupid.