stevenkesslar

Yeah. Poor Joe. Lichtman, who has always been right, says Biden will probably win unless a lot of really big things change quickly. And he will win based on reliable fundamentals, like economic growth and getting laws passed. Poor Joe. What a mess! Your strategy, @EmmetK, is simple. Be demented. I mean, you are not really demented, I don't think. But you act demented, in that you deny reality. Lichtman has been right every time. Even Trump, personally, in writing, acknowledged that. But your strategy is basically, "I'll just put my head deep up my ass like I am some crazy fuck and pretend facts are not facts." By the way, polls are not facts. Except on the day they come out. Maybe. So the fact that Trump and Biden are about 1 % apart in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in the RCP average should tell us this race is close. And either could win. I think that is a fact. You don't really want to believe that fact, do you? Here's another set of facts that is interesting and relevant. If you are interested in facts. In Arizona, Democrat Gallego leads Lake by 6 % on average. In Nevada., Democrat Rosen leads her strongest opponent by 5 % on average. In Michigan, Democrat Slotkin is statistically tied with her strongest opponent. (Slotkin, like Trump, has a statistically insignificant 1 % lead). In Wisconsin, Democrat Baldwin leads her opponent by 7 % on average. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Casey leads his opponent by 5 % on average. Those are all states you are assuming Trump will win, based on the current POTUS polls. Even though the Trump/Biden poll averages clearly show Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are toss ups. If Biden wins all three, Trump is toast. Lichtman is strongly suggesting Biden will win all three. But, again, what does he know that you don't? 😉 Now let's talk about two states Biden will almost certainly lose. In Ohio, Democrat Brown leads his opponent by 5 % on average. In Montana, Democrat Tester leads his opponent by 5 % on average. See the pattern? Here's the thing. Since Trump entered the picture and played his "divide and conquer" card, the nation has been very divided. The only Senator that won in a state that did not match with the POTUS result in 2022 was a Republican win in Wisconsin, which Biden won in 2020. In 2020, the only non-match was a Republican win in Maine, which Biden won. In 2018 there were a few more non-matches, including Democrats Brown and Tester above winning in what are now seen as strong red states. But, generally, states that vote for Biden vote for Democratic Senators. States that vote for Trump elect Republican Senators. Even in Maryland, where anti-Trump Republican Hogan was a very popular Guv, the latest polls show voters just won't elect a Republican, even an avowed anti-Trumper, if it helps tilt the country to Trump. Does this tell you anything? Of course not! Silly question. Facts just don't matter. Too complex. There are three possibilities. First, this could be 1980. In May 1980 Carter led Reagan by 8 points. He even led Reagan by eight points in October 1980. So much for polls, as Lichtman says. (But, hey, what does he know?) Not only did Reagan win. He also took out Democratic Senators that were not even seen as particularly vulnerable. So maybe a red wave is building, like in 2022. Maybe all these Democratic Senators who appear to be headed to victory are actually headed to extinction. Egads! Except there are no signs of a red trickle, let alone a red wave, like in 2022. By the way, did anyone ever find 2022's AWOL red wave? 😉 Second, maybe the fever has broken. And we are going back to compromise and bipartisanship and ticket splitting as a governing strategy. I personally would vote for that. Maybe Trump will win all the states I cited above. Even as they elect Democratic Senators and a Democratic Senate majority. Possible, but unlikely. I see the MAGA minority's embrace of a law breaker and wannabe democracy destroyer like Trump as evidence that the fever has not broken. It is more heated than ever. Everything you post here in anecdotal evidence of the same. You're into fever, not facts. So as much as I would like a more bipartisan Congress, I don't hold my hopes up. And, if people want a POTUS who is good at getting bipartisan laws actually passed - infrastructure, CHIPS, Ukraine/Israel - that's a reason to vote for Biden. How many bipartisan tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans did Trump get passed, anyway? Third, and most likely, the reason most Democratic Senators outpoll Biden is that most people do not like Joe Biden. It's now pretty clear that won't change between now and election day. Mostly because Biden won't stop aging. Nor will the majority of Americans suddenly decide they like Donald Trump. Mostly because he won't get any less crazy. So in all these states where Democratic Senators have strong leads, is it possible that the underlying trend says that people will vote Democratic? Even though they have serious problems with the guy at the top of the ticket? Yes, it's quite possible. I just described about how half my nieces and nephews feel. It's back to that old South Park episode, about the choice between a douche and a turd sandwich. So the idea that people who tend to vote Democratic and say they will vote for a Democrat for Senate will ultimately see Biden as the lesser of evils seems possible, and even probable. The thing that is funny about you, @EmmetK, is that you are deeply committed to ignorance on two very important points. You see them as Trump's greatest strengths, when they are in fact much more likely to be his greatest weaknesses. And his reasons for probably losing again. The first point is the five party race. You keep citing polls that show Biden is further behind Trump in polls that count RFK, Stein, and West. True. But that is Trump's problem, not Biden's. He has a lead that is built on quicksand. It's a fact that every four years, to the degree there is any third party that even registers, you can take whatever they are polling now and divide it by at least half. People just do this, literally every four years. They shop, but don't buy. In October or November they decide it is a wasted vote. With Stein and West, those are mostly younger or non-White voters who lean toward Democrats. That said, we also know for a fact that Jill Stein alone was capable of handing the election to Donald Trump in 2016. Which every single American who doesn't want Trump will be reminding Stein supporters this Fall. What you are essentially arguing is that a house built on quicksand is as good as a house built on cement. A Trump victory premised on the idea that these polls are right about how RFK or West or Stein will do is just bullshit. That's a fact. It literally never works out that way. Literally every four years. The second point has nothing to do with any argument you make. It is the whole Trump/MAGA philosophy that ignorance is not only bliss. It is a ticket to victory and power. As a conniving brand huckster, Trump needed poorly informed people to go to Trump U, or buy Trump crap. So of course he loves "poorly educated" voters. Because, as this study showed, if you read newspapers or websites or watch networks news, you're probably voting for Biden. The people who Trump does best with, by a whopping 26 point margin, are not cable news viewers, like Fox. They people who follow no political news at all. What does it tell us when a political leader's success (meaning he won one very close election, one time) is based on people who are committed to being ignorant about politics? It tells us mostly bad things, in my opinion. But that's me being anti-Trump. One thing it tells us for a fact is that these are absolutely the least reliable voters ever. If Trump's poll lead, such as it is, is based on people who don't follow politics, because they mostly don't care about it, those polls are particularly unreliable. That's true in two ways. Trump clearly knows he has this vast army of "poorly educated" voters who are pissed off. And to the degree that tune in at all, they want to be thrown red meat about how the Deep State ... [name something about a conspiracy or how Democrats drink the blood of children]. Trump could win in 2024 in part because these occasional voters did turn out in 2016. And they gave him just enough votes in enough states so that Trump could lose by millions of votes, but still somehow win. Trump actually got millions more of them to vote for him in 2020, when he lost by 7 million votes. So this is a politics built on quicksand. Ignorance is not bliss if you want to win. This is also true for Biden, way more than in 2020. Mark Penn's polls are particularly detailed and interesting. Trump always does better than average in those Harvard/Harris polls. Like right now Penn says Trump is leading Biden by 5 points, compared to Trump's statistically insignificant 1 % lead in the RCP average. One big reason is that Penn shows young voters are split on Trump/Biden. Whereas most polls show young voters overwhelmingly for Biden, like they actually voted in 2020. And why Biden won. So Penn's polls could just be fucked up. Or they could be right. But if they are right it is because he taps into young voters whose political views are vaguely based on Tik Tok rants about how inflation sucks and Biden sucks and the cost of living is out of control. And that's it. Gaza? What's that? Trump's tax policies? Huh? So who knows? Maybe this young Tik Tok/You Tube contingent, which is not the same as the equally uninformed and older MAGA cult, will actually vote for Trump. Or maybe they just won't vote, even though they are the demographic that sealed Biden's victory in 2020. Nobody knows. Nobody can know. Anyone who believes polls that are based on this kind of quicksand make sense should also believe that Carter actually beat Reagan by eight points in 1980. The thing we do know is that the more people read newspapers or websites, the more reliable they are as voters. Reliable both in terms of the fact that they know who they will vote for, which is more likely to be Biden. And they know they will actually vote. So the idea that the least reliable voters, who know and care the least about politics, are somehow going to be the vanguard of a Trump victory is more than shaky. It could work again, like in 2016. Lightning can sometimes strike twice. Just don't count on it. These are Trump's greatest weaknesses. Which helps explain why Lichtman is probably right about reliable benchmarks, Like how Biden will win based on how he has governed. You see Trump's greatest weaknesses as strengths.

You may be genocidal, but you ain't stupid, @Moses. You're right. You know shit about democracy, and care even less. Let's talk about gerontocracy, which you know a lot about. It's true that both Biden and Trump fall in that category, just like the old communists above. I'll stretch the comparison. In some ways the US is a lot like the USSR of that period. And in some ways it is the exact opposite. I think the similarity is we are going to have our own period of perestroika. Most Presidents since 1992 have been Baby Boomers. The exceptions have been Obama, who was a bit younger. And Biden, who is too old to even be an aging Boomer. When Clinton and Gore were elected, having a Boomer POTUS was young and fresh. Now it is old and stale. The country does want change, but also is not quite ready for it. If we were, we could have dumped Biden and Trump, of course. We didn't. It does have this feeling of clinging to the past. Because at least we know what that is politically. One side even has an appropriately backward looking motto: Make America Great Again. Poor old things. Demographically, at some point Millennials and Gen Z will simply take over, like the Boomers did in the 1990's. I can't wait. Some of the outlines are already clear. It will be more progressive. And it may be a wild ride, at least politically. In the case of the USSR, it was also the beginning of the end. Or, arguably, the end of the end. The political and economic systems were so fucked up that they simply could not be saved. Poor Vlad. Somehow he is trying to restore the rot. Wonder why he is having such problems? But I get how people all over the world can look at the US shit show (although similar trends are happening in Europe, and most democracies) and draw comparisons. Like the US is in decline. And maybe democracy is even nearing collapse. Wouldn't you love it, @Moses? Long live Genocide Man and autocracy! May a million Ukrainians die! 😲 Then again, maybe not. This is where the US is the exact opposite of the Gerontocracy Russia of old. As well as Putin's Genocide Russia of today. We have the most dynamic economy in the world. China will catch up to us ........................ never! Economically, or politically. Poor Vlad. His best hope to grow at the same rate as the US (which is like saying a tiny parasite is technically growing at the same rate as a tiger) is to be extremely efficient at building a regional war economy. To work optimally, Genocide Man needs to get better and better at using millions of Russian men as fuel, to be turned into fertilizer. At some point you may find ethnic minorities less willing to do that, even for the nice pay the families of the human fertilizer get. That won't help when it is time for Russia to go away and break up. People don't forget this shit. You should know, @Moses. People in [name any country in Europe or Eurasia] sure didn't want to be part of the USSR when it fell apart. Meanwhile, the problem the US has is too many people are trying to get in. But that's not the biggest problem. We have the best educated young generations ever. Making more than ever because they have more skills than ever. Granted, Vlad has some very talented engineers working hard to build better bombs. But that only gets you so far. Many of the young people in Russia who could be building the tech companies listed in ETFs like SOXL and FNGU are getting the fuck out of Russia. They want to rich. Not fertilizer. So at some point - not actually too long from now - someone not named Biden or Trump will be POTUS. And she will leading the most powerful economy, military, and political system in the world. You can't have that @Moses. You get genocide, a war economy, and rot. But look on the bright side. There is money to be in turning your people into fertilizer.

That sounds way too complicated. The nice thing about Trump, other than how he is perfect and infallible, is that he has created a GOP 4 Dummies. Everyone can see what the rules are. And they are simple. If you break any bone of any cop claiming to defend the integrity of the 2020 election, which was stolen, you will be beatified. All the glorious patriots who defended democracy on January 6th will be known as Saints a century from now. If you don't like Trump, and especially if you say anything bad about him, you will burn in hell forever. Nikki Haley will be barbeque in hell for eternity. Mike Pence, too. Even God can't help him on that one. Liz Cheney? Cunt! That's simple, too. Strong women who don't like Trump are cunts. Of course, suburban women who voted for Haley in the primaries and are STILL voting for Haley in primaries because they detest Trump have a different belief system, and what not. It is a big part of why Trump will lose in November. But that's getting way too complicated. Let's just go with the part about how Trump is infallible, okay?

Democracy must really annoy you.

Quite honestly, I am shocked. Who knew that Trump had an "edit" function? Call me slow. But I had not figured that out during four years of him being POTUS. And call me crazy. But is it too much to hope that Trump and MAGA have a "delete" function as well?

Good for you. 😀 I missed that. I went off your original post, which talked about how Trump turns lemons into lemonade and is great at losing elections and lawsuits making a fortune. When you posted that on March 26th DJT was selling for $70 to $80 a share. Now it's in the mid 50's. Mostly seems like a lemon so far. But the point is buy low and sell high. So you are half way there.

Silly! Not you. Genocide Man - meaning your mass murdering leader - is the one that constantly threatens nuclear war whenever he feels like he is losing. That's just what Genocide Man does. He's a mass murdering genocidal asshole, after all. Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war See. This is who Genocide Man is. This is what Genocide Man does. He is losing, and he hates to lose.

Great. You're in denial. That's very human. I might be in denial too if I had a losing genocidal leader like Genocide Man. At least denial is better than constantly threatening nuclear war when the world stands up against genocide.

Congratulations on making "billions". So I am curious. What is your cost basis? When you posted how Trump turns lemons into lemonade on March 26, good, decent, and God-loving MAGA folk were buying his shares for between $65 and $80 a share. So I assume you did NOT pay that much for them. Despite your telling us at the time how selling stock for $80 a share made Trump a genius, and what not. I suck at math. But $53 is less than $80, right?

59% Say Trump Should Not Be Allowed To Hold Office In Future Got it. 59 % of people say in 2021 they could never vote for Trump again. Until some of them do. Which just shows us the value of the polls you cite. But if you want to bet on them, like on DJT, know yourself out. Just don't complain to us when you lose. Meanwhile, I'll stay with FNGU and SOXL and soaring US technology funds. Sadly, I did not buy DJT at $80 a share. But my stock account hit a new all time high today, anyway. Who knew we could flourish without Trump? You may not be as smart as The Donald. But your arguments are every bit as self defeating.

Your sadistic butcher is sure having a bad month, isn't he? First, lots of money from the US to defend Ukraine and democracy. Second, lots of money from Europe to defend Ukraine and democracy. Third, Putin fires some of his own top defense leaders for being corrupt, as well as genocidal. The genocidal part is okay with Genocide Man, of course. It's the corruption part that sucks. Poor thing! What does Genocide Man do when things suck? Duh! He threatens nuclear war. Point is, it sucks to be Russian, I know. When things go bad, Genocide Man says let's have nuclear annihilation and turn everyone in Moscow into dust. Which is even worse than turning millions of Russian men into fertilizer in Ukraine. At least their wives and families get paid by Genocide Man when he steals Russia's future by turning so many Russian men into grass. Of course, it'll suck even worse when Biden wins. Then Trump can't trade Ukraine away for money from Putin's allies for his next failing IPO, or whatever. Exclusive: Trump Media saved in 2022 by Russian-American under criminal investigation Evil, corruption, genocide. Evil, corruption, genocide. Evil, corruption genocide. No matter how many times you repeat it, it still sounds like nasty shit. Of course, Trump and his bud Vlad, being arrogant monsters and what not, think they have it figured out that Trump will win because the polls show .................... wait for it ............... the race is tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not that anyone from Genocide World who openly supports genocide like @Moses does understands or gives a shit about democracy. And of course no arrogant prick like Genocide Man or Trump would believe some academic like Allan Lichtman saying a lot would have to go wrong - like in Ukraine - for Biden to lose. After all, Lichtman was clearly wrong when he predicted every POTIS who won in advance since 1984 .... including Trump in 2016. (Here's what Lichtman just said about polls, by the way.) And Genocide Man was clearly right when he started his genocide in Ukraine, thinking it would be easy. Turns out evil fucks often turn out to be dumb fucks as well. At least in the US we get to vote against them. 😉 It will sure suck when Biden wins and he spends lots more, like Europe will, to defend Ukraine from Genocide Man and his blood and murder and sadism. Wonder how many more nuclear wars Genocide Man will threaten then, as Russia slowly goes broke?

My line about myself is that I have always been a whore. First I was a political whore. And then I just became a whore. So your standards are higher than mine. What I would sort of expect of the Matt Gaetz/MTG House clown show is that they will whine like bitches about the border and then kill a bipartisan border deal as soon as it becomes possible. So basically Johnson scores points with me for simply not being a reckless, cynical clown. He is acting like an adult in the room. Which is not easier since he has the biggest man baby in America lording over him. The scary part of this, of course, is that if Trump wins and manages to carry the House and Senate, Johnson will be just as effective in getting conservative things I really dislike done. If Biden wins, at least Johnson is the kind of person who lives in the grown up political world. I really don't think Trump does. Mostly, I don't think Trump gives a shit about policy. If there is something that is the opposite of a policy wonk, Trump is it. Jared Kushner said it best, comparing Trump to the Cheshire Cat Alice In Wonderland. If you don't know where you are going, any path will get you there. Which leads me to a few Wellstone stories. It took him a while to figure out where he was going, too. I remember early in my college career Paul jokingly tore into one of my best friends, and asked him something like, "When are you going to realize electoral politics is bullshit?" Paul was basically a protest politics guy at the time. The irony is that a decade later the friend he teased ended up being his campaign manager. And they won. Meanwhile, in 1990 I happened to be a low-income lobbyist putting together a $1 billion program for low-income homeowners with Fannie Mae and a bunch of mortgage lenders. One of the guys I worked closely with had been a Reagan political operative. He told me something like, "Your friend has no chance in hell of beating Boschwitz (the incumbent Minnesota Republican Senator). Boschwitz is great at constituent services, and that is all that matters in the Senate." So much for constituent services. A little trip down memory lane is in order.

I agree that it was unbalanced in the sense that it just let Johnson spell out his world view, without really challenging his assertions. But that was what I liked about it. It was an interview format. So for something like that I am okay with just giving him the mike. Johnson came out of nowhere when McCarthy was crucified by his own party's whacko wing. So this is the first thing I've read that really just let Johnson tell us how he sees the world. And reading it did help me understand why he was chosen, and why he has been somewhat effective. The thing that delighted me is the Ukraine vote. And I think that probably speaks to the underlying political dynamics. At least half of Republicans in the House probably think we should fund Ukraine, because it makes us look weak in the world if we don't. Again, speaking to this in family terms, it just explodes my brain that my Dad's Reagan Cold War "Tear Down This Wall" Republican Party would say let's just hand Ukraine to Putin. And the political irony is the Republicans make an okay argument that Biden can't be POTIS because he is very old and very weak and we just can't have an old and weak fuck like Biden be POTUS. Because, face it, he's fucking old and so fucking weak everyone can see he is just a weak old fuck. And, in fact, the polls make it very clear most Americans do see Biden pretty much that way. So the Republicans have what could be a winning argument. And then they turn around and say, "We Republicans gave out testicles to Putin, and we are happy to let him fuck us in the ass and take whatever he wants." Sorry about the colorful language. But I have no idea where this Republican Party came from. And everyone around the world looks at the Republicans and says, "This is weakness. This is hypocrisy. America is a paper tiger." So I give Johnson credit for figuring out how to work with that and do what, in his mind, Reagan would have done. The story about Tip O'Neill, as you say, is probably bullshit. I've read in several places that the supposed love affair between Tip and The Gipper was mostly a myth. But that in itself tells us something. Because Reagan clearly wanted to be seen as someone bipartisan who would compromise. Johnson has now played his cards enough to reveal he is like Reagan in that sense. The contrast I would make to Johnson is Newt Gingrich. I think Gingrich is an ideological flame thrower who likes ideological war and is not a big fan of compromise. I think he should get credit as one of the main architects of that wing of the Republican Party. There was a long interview I read of Leon Panetta about the Clinton days and the government shutdown. Panetta said that there was a key moment in private negotiations where POTUS Bill Clinton told House Speaker Gingrich something like, "Newt, I know what you want. But I just can't give it to you." The polls showed Republicans were being blamed for the shutdown. So Dole, who wanted to run for POTUS in 1996 and knew this would hurt his chances, stepped in and cut the pragmatic deal with Clinton that ideologue Newt was not willing to compromise on. All of that said a lot to me about the kind of pragmatist Dole was, and the kind of ideologue Gingrich is. My takeaway from that interview is Johnson really wants Republicans to win the House in 2024, so he can still be Speaker. I would bet money that when Johnson talks to Trump privately he says, "We can let Ukraine lose. But it will be blamed on Republicans and it will hurt your chances of winning in 2024. Is that what you want?" As much as I despise Trump and pray he loses in 2024, I am actually glad that someone with more nuanced political skills like Johnson perhaps can make pragmatic arguments about issues like Ukraine that Trump may actually listen to.

Mike Johnson Told Us What He Really Thinks About Joe Biden, Hakeem Jeffries and Donald Trump I thought this was a fascinating interview with Mike Johnson. It's long, but it is worth a read. It explains a lot to me about why he has turned out to be surprisingly effective. And there is less gridlock and shit show than I thought there might have been after the House Republican leadership explosion. I will say this as a caveat. Johnson's views of The Gays have been repugnant and hateful. I'll repeat that three times. Repugnant and hateful. Repugnant and hateful. Repugnant and hateful. There. So that's out of the way. That said, one of the biggest legislative victories of my organizing career was a bill that funded $10 million a year, annually and permanently, to low income energy programs carried by an anti-Gay Republican in the Oregon legislature. That's politics. if you want to be effective. Which is what the interview is all about. I'll single out a few parts that really resonated for me: That resonated both professionally and personally to me. Professionally, I spent a huge amount of time on Capitol Hill as a liberal low-income activist when Reagan and Bush 41 were President. It sure helped to have a Democratic populist ally like Bill Proxmire as chair of the Banking Commmittee. He was not captured by bank money, like Democratic Banking Chair Chris Dodd (not to mention most Republicans) was further down the line. But anything that got done in the 80's had to be bipartisan. Especially if you were a liberal. So these ideas are music to my ears. This is how lots of important shit got done in the 1980's and 1990's. In the 90's I did the same thing in the Oregon legislature. My most fun happy warrior gig was annihilating Enron and getting a huge and permanent fund for renewable energy set up that has made Oregon a renewables leader ever since. (Sorry, Gavin.) Again, it had to be bipartisan and coalition building. Personally, I have been a lifelong Wellstone liberal Democrat (he was my college professor who turned me lefty). And my Dad, who almost lived to be 100, was a lifelong Reagan Republican. So I learned early that we had to respect each other, and be able to agree to disagree. Most of my family is left of center. A few of my nieces and nephews are pretty hard core Trumpy Republicans. The line that works with them is that my Reagan loving Dad and I disagreed on a lot of things. But we could always talk, and respect each other, because we shared the same principles - good principles. Which, of course, I got from him. It is a line that works great with the Trumpers in my family. And it works great because it is true. The thing I liked most about Kevin McCarthy, as I stated before, is he is the White Republican conservative from a fairly Hispanic area who more than any other national elected official worked hard to bring Black and Hispanic and Asian American conservatives into the US House. That was actually not good for the Democratic Party. Since I would rather be able to go after Republicans for being the All White Male Party. But what McCarthy did was good for the country, I think. There will be less racism thanks to Republicans being more inclusive. This spirit may be Johnson's hallmark, no matter how long he lasts. He obviously believes deeply in the things he is saying, about loving - or, more importantly - respecting and finding common ground with - your enemies. And it's working. Maybe someday he'll even show some respect to The Gays! 😉

Yup. When you wrote that a little over a month ago DJT was at $66. So it has, as of today, lost one third of it's value. Some lemonade! Trump is unique at knowing how to lose. Not him, personally. I mean he excels at turning his MAGA cult into losers. Lose, lose, lose! DJT in consistent. When he didn't lose as bad as people thought he would in 2020, he called it "winning." That led to lots of cops having their heads beat in. Festive! Now that his stock is down only one third, not two thirds, that is "winning" too. That's the DJT we know, and don't love. Or even respect. Loser!

I'd buy SOXL instead. It's an ETF with NVDA, AVGO, all the tech powerhouses. My nephew was recently up close to 10x on the $7 shares he bought in Fall 2022. I made the mistake of listening to the doom and gloom recession mongers in late 2022 and waited until Fall 2023 to jump into SOXL. But as Jim Roppel said recently, the "real money" started to be made starting Fall 2023. And he thinks about half of the money made on this bull will be in AI/tech related investments like SOXL and FNGU. Doesn't it shock you, @EmmetK, that real smart and rich traders and investors are not screaming, "Buy Trump! Buy DJT!" Anyhoo, SOXL just had the inevitable freefall correction from $58 to about $30. I actually sold half of mine in the 40's, at like a 100 % profit, thinking there would be a correction and I'd take some profits and buy back later. And now I will. A LOT. I think by the end of May it may be the $20's. As will DJT. Again. One stock is a big winner. And one is a big loser. Which do you think is which?

Nah. I'll just post the two words that you hate: Allan L:ichtman. And the one word you hate even more: FACTS. Fact is, Lichtman is saying polls now have almost no predictive value, and a lot would have to change for Biden to lose. Fact is, Lichtman has predicted every race correctly, in advance, since 1984. Fact is, Trump is smart enough (unlike you) to personally write Lichtman in 2016 and say, "Good call, professor," when he predicted in Sept. 2016 that Trump would win. Fact is, Trump did not congratulate Lichtman when he predicted, again correctly, in 2020 that Trump would lose. Because Trump is a loser and liar and a wannabe autocrat who grabs women by the pussy but won't let them get abortions. Even a moral scumbag like Trump is right some of the time, though. Cue the response: "Ha ha ha! Lefty losers! Look at me! Look at me! I invested in DJT and in about a month it has gone down one third from what I bought it for. And that's after it plummeted by two thirds, had a failed rally, and is now headed down again. Ha ha ha! I'm a winner. Look at me! Look at me! Look at how smart I am!" Ha ha ha, indeed. Trump, Moral Scumbag In Chief, enriches himself while his fervent cult loses. Why am I not surprised? There is a positive side to DJT. At least now when you talk about losing, we know you know what you are talking about.

Now, come on. Let's be realistic. I'd be happy if he just lost a little weight, and stopped acting so humble. 😉

Funny you should mention platforms at conventions. One of the turning points of when the Republican Party became a cult is in 2020 when it subordinated all ideas and policies to one God that is to be worshipped: Donald Trump. Who needs a platform to run on, when you have a God? Why Republicans didn’t write a platform for their convention this year The party’s true priority is supporting Donald Trump. The party has only one true God, The Almighty: Donald Trump. He can rape, he can lie, he can try to steal elections, he can bow down to Putin. There is no policy debate. There is no disagreement, or you will be banished like Liz Cheney. There can only be one true God, most holy, most high, the perfect dictator, perfect forever. Thank you God, Donald Trump, Most Holy.

You are always so honest. You don't care about immigrants who die building the country. Your death cult only wants to focus on murder propaganda. "Here's one woman who died! Here's one woman who died! It's Joe Biden's fault." The Trump crime cult doesn't care that murder is down over 10 % last year. The Trump crime cult doesn't care about immigrants who build America. The Trump crime cult doesn't care about facts.

Duh! Me! I'm LMAO. First, the basic and core stupidity here is that Trump is gonna lose. You don't believe a guy who has been right on every POTUS race since 1984. Who Trump personally congratulated. That's just very stupid. Lichtman is clear about the things that could change that would hurt Biden. Losing Ukraine is probably #1 on the list. The criminal rapist you support knows this. He'd rather support genocide and weaken the US and NATO than allow Biden and the US to help Ukraine. It's weak, and sick. So I'll laugh my ass off when he loses. Second, you don't understand or believe short sellers. This puppy is being set up for a fall. If you want to see how it works, check out SOXL. Went up 15x during the COVID sugar high, then down 90 % in 2022, and is now up about 7x off its Fall 2022 low. It will probably peak about 10x above what it was worth in Fall 2022, I'm guessing. That is how short sellers work. DJT is small ball in this game. I tell you this in the hope that you will get out before you lose at musical chairs, like much of the cult will. Third, as I said above, I doubt that Leticia James seizing Trump's assets would create a backlash that would help Trump win. About 54 % of America consistently views DJT as a lying criminal rapist who deserves punishment. And anyone who feels Trump is above the law probably ain't gonna change their mind, anyway. But I am delighted that the world now knows DJT has plenty of money - out of the pockets of the cult - to pay the woman he raped and any and all other judgments. Fourth, the real beauty is that if Trump needs the money, he'll have to get his nepo board to change the rules so he can sell soon, instead of waiting six months. By which time the short sellers will most likely shred DJT, anyway. Thus rapist criminal Trump will legally undermine the stock, creating the very conditions the short sellers are waiting for. And raping his loyal followers, like he does every time. This you can't blame it on Leticia James, the Deep State, or the Satanic child blood drinkers. The stupidity is brilliant! Bravo, and thanks.

Well, at least Trump has a loyal cult. And good spelling skills.

Genocide Fan # 2 wants to prove his genocide-diseased mind can not function, I guess. Even if we go way way way deep into the rabbit holes of unproven conspiracy theories, what the diseased brain of Genocide Man # 2 is saying is that any US politician that "does not serve the ruling political families of the United States" will be taken out by Soviet fighters, or the Russian mafia. Huh? When did the Soviet Union and Russian mafia start serving the interests of "the ruling political families of the United States"? The shit filling the brain of Genocide Fan # 2 is so thick that he can't form coherent thoughts. He's for genocide, he's for death, he's for Putin, and his brain is diseased with shit. This makes no fucking sense. Why would Soviet fighters and the Russian mafia kill Senator Paul Wellstone, Rep. Sonny Bono, or Rep. McDonald? Rep. McDonald was killed by Soviet fighters when the Korean plane he was flying on entered Soviet air space. So what shit for brains Genocide Fan # 2 wants to believe after his genocide indoctrination is that back in 1983 the Soviet Union killed a U.S. Congressman on behalf of the ruling families of the United States because that Congressman wanted to investigate the Trilateral Commission. It makes no fucking sense. But all Genocide Fan # 2 wants to do is repeat completely illogical bullshit in defense of genocide. What a sick fuck. This one is a whopper. First, you have to believe that people who know how to ski well never die in ski accidents. His wife said the cause of death is the 15 to 20 pain killers he took a day that she thinks messed with his judgment. Shit for brains Genocide Fan # 2 apparently believes good skiers never have accidents. Then you have to believe the Russian mafia killed Bono to cover up drug trafficking by the CIA. Huh? How much sense does that make, other than to our genocidal sick fuck? The cop who found Bono dead after he hit a tree has said this is another piece of bullshit cooked up on the internet. But the internet version of the murder theory is that Russian drug traffickers killed Bono because he was co-sponsor of the Methamphetamine Elimination Act of 1997, which did crack down of Russian drug traffickers. Who, by the way, are tied to Genocide Man. Even if you want to believe the Russian mafia killed Bono, it wouldn't be to cover up for CIA drug trafficking. This is what happens to a diseased brain when it is trained by Genocide Man to believe any bullshit and evil in the defense of genocide and death. Paul was my college professor and mentor as a community organizer, when I was a student at Carleton and before a bunch of my Carleton friends ran the campaign that shockingly got him elected to the US Senate. Genocide Fan # 2 again displays he knows a lot about genocide and death, but nothing about democracy. The majority of Democrats in the House and Senate opposed the Iraq War. They were not all killed. Genocide Fan # 2 apparently thinks all politicians who die in small plane crashes in bad weather are targets of political assassinations. Maybe this is because Genocide Man has proven he is good at killing people flying in planes, which he shoots out of the sky. Genocide Fan # 2 of course has no idea in his sick brain what it takes to run a David v. Goliath grassroots campaign for the US Senate. Because people like Paul who do that in Genocide World are killed, like Navalny. Genocide Fan # 2 just keeps demonstrating he is a brain-diseased sick fuck who defends genocide and death. But in his defense, he's just doing what Genocide Man does. Putin spent a few days trying to make the ridiculous argument that Ukraine ordered Isis-k terrorists to kill Russians, before he finally admitted the truth Some genocidal lies are so stupid that not even Genocide Man can get away with them.

de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Alexei Navalny Age: 47 Date of Death: February 16, 2024 Cause of Death: Alexei Navalny died in prison. The Russian prison service reported that he felt unwell after a walk and lost consciousness. Biography: Alexei Navalny was a prominent critic of Vladimir Putin. He gained global attention in 2020 when he survived a poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok. Navalny willingly returned to Russia from Germany in 2021, where he had received treatment for the previous poisoning. Upon his return, he was promptly arrested. Navalny was known for exposing corruption, investigating Putin's inner circle, and leading anti-Kremlin opposition movements. His death is likely to be seen by fellow opposition members as a political assassination attributable to Putin, but is as yet unexplained. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Mikhail Lesin Age: 57 Date of Death: November 5, 2015 Cause of Death: Mikhail Lesin was a former Russian press minister and media executive. He fell out of favor with Putin and faced scrutiny for his wealth. Lesin was found dead in a Washington, D.C. hotel room. The official cause of death was ruled as accidental blunt force injuries, but questions persist about the circumstances. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Boris Nemtsov Age: 55 Date of Death: February 27, 2015 Cause of Death: Boris Nemtsov was shot dead on a bridge near the Kremlin. His murder remains unsolved, but many believe it was politically motivated. Nemtsov was a vocal critic of Putin's government, advocating for democracy, human rights, and transparency. He served as a deputy prime minister under President Boris Yeltsin and later became a prominent opposition figure. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Boris Berezovsky Age: 67 Date of Death: March 23, 2013 Cause of Death: Boris Berezovsky was a wealthy businessman, oligarch, and former ally of Putin. However, he became a vocal critic and fled to the U.K. Berezovsky was found dead in his home in Berkshire, England. The official cause of death was ruled as suicide, but suspicions remain due to his high-profile opposition activities. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Sergei Magnitsky Age: 37 Date of Death: November 16, 2009 Cause of Death: Sergei Magnitsky was a lawyer and auditor who exposed a massive tax fraud scheme involving Russian officials. He was arrested, imprisoned, and denied medical treatment. Magnitsky died in custody following severe beatings and medical neglect. His death led to the passing of the Magnitsky Act in the United States, which sanctions Russian officials involved in human rights abuses and corruption. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Stanislav Markelov Age: 34 Date of Death: January 19, 2009 Cause of Death: Stanislav Markelov was a human rights lawyer and journalist. He was assassinated in Moscow by a gunman who also killed journalist Anastasia Baburova. Markelov had represented victims of human rights abuses and criticized the Russian government's actions in Chechnya. His death raised concerns about the safety of those opposing the regime. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Anastasia Baburova Age: 25 Date of Death: January 19, 2009 Cause of Death: Anastasia Baburova, a journalist and activist, was shot dead alongside human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov in Moscow. She had reported on neo-Nazi groups and political violence. Her murder remains unsolved, but it is believed to be connected to her activism. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Natalia Estemirova Age: 50 Date of Death: July 15, 2009 Cause of Death: Natalia Estemirova, a human rights activist and journalist, was abducted in Grozny, Chechnya, and found dead later that day. She had documented human rights violations in Chechnya and criticized the government. Her murder remains unsolved, but it is widely believed to be connected to her activism and criticism of the Chechen authorities. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the world" Anna Politkovskaya Age: 48 Date of Death: October 7, 2006 Cause of Death: Anna Politkovskaya, an investigative journalist, was shot dead in her apartment building in Moscow. She had reported extensively on human rights abuses, corruption, and the war in Chechnya. Her work was critical of Putin's government, and her murder sparked international outrage. Despite investigations, the masterminds behind her killing have not been brought to justice. de·moc·ra·cy /dəˈmäkrəsē/ noun a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. "capitalism and democracy are ascendant in the third world" Yuri Shchekochikhin Age: 53 Date of Death: July 3, 2003 Cause of Death: Yuri Shchekochikhin was a journalist, writer, and member of the Russian State Duma. He investigated corruption, organized crime, and human rights abuses. Shchekochikhin suddenly fell ill and died from an unknown cause. Some suspect poisoning, but the circumstances remain unclear.

You are definitely on to something. Trump makes everything interesting. Why not stock analysis, which is totally boring? Instead of 30 day and 60 day moving averages, we could track DJT with 30 and 60 day moving indictments. My guess is the way it works is the more new indictments, the more DJT pops. Since the cult will visit the site heavily to find out why Trump is innocent and persecuted, as always. And to donate money, of course. Then instead of relative strength index, we could have relative scam index. If he gets elected, that could explode. I mean, in the traditional sense of RSI 30 means oversold. I think Trump could easily get well over 30 scams a month going to fleece the cult. Instead of oversold, we just call it overscammed. I don't think we'll ever have to worry about being underscammed with this crowd. They'll always donate money, of course. This is off to a great start. DJT opened at $70.55, peaked at $79.38, and closed just under $58. So everybody who bought today lost, except for Donald J. Trump. How much more perfect could a stock named after Donald J. Trump be?