stevenkesslar

Hey, Genocide freak! Congratulations. I'll say it again. Vlad Putin, Genocide Man, won an extremely important battle he toiled hard for last night. Congratulations. That is how we do it in democracies. We don't jail people, or poison them. But you are still a Genocide Freak. You still come here to promote division, and rationalize Putin's death machine. It is who you are. It is what you do. Genocide, genocide, genocide. If you think Americans voted for Putin or genocide, you are not racist. You are just really fucking stupid. I can't find that quote you attributed to me. But, basically, you are saying Ronald Reagan and Susie Wiles are racists. Please debate that with them, okay? Reagan and Wiles both identified a specific racial group, Latinos, and made efforts to attract them to the Republican Party. Mostly by playing off their grievances about an economy that they feel is not working well for them. Teixeira, a Democrat and architect and author of The Emerging Democratic Majority, thinks Democrats should do the same. I emphatically agree with him, and think last night proved he is right. I don't think that is racist. If you do, call Susie Wiles. It just proves, yet again, that you are here to promote division and death. And you are stupid. And you are losing. You will always be a Genocide Freak, okay? I wonder what would happen if a Russian ethnic group, the Chechen people, changed the outcome of any fake Russian election by unseating Genocide Man? Would Genocide Man congratulate them, and try to understand why they voted the way they did? Duh! Of course not. He would kill them all. In fact, he already did. That is the difference between America and Genocide World. That has not changed. But calling me a racist for trying to understand why Latino men voted for Trump is funny. Keep doing that. It's stupid, but less cruel than promoting genocide. Chechen genocide Personally, as an American, I think it is great that Latino men can vote as they wish, without fear of being the victims of Genocide Man's murderous whims. The challenge for America now, as @reader said, is to resist Trump's efforts to inch America further into authoritarianism and oligarchy.

Exactly! That's not a theory. That's a fact. There's been lots of polling on that. It's not black and white, pun intended. But Latinos generally identify as "White". Including in Mexico, I'd argue. Turn on a telenovela and it tends to be handsome "White" looking men and women. Not Black looking Mexicans. But that is a whole separate thing. I think the positive way to say it is that America is a melting pot. And there is definitely backlash against what people see as extreme versions of identity politics, where they are reduced to their race. I am not saying Democrats do that, or Harris did it. I think she did a great job of NOT doing that. The better example is what I viewed as the complete fucking nonsense about "Latinx." It was wildly stupid. And probably a good example of "woke" college-educated idiots who speak no Spanish trying to make some stupid fucking cultural statement. Polls said almost all Spanish speaking Hispanic Americans did not like the idea. That said, I don't think "Latinx" was why Latino men voted for Trump. And they did not vote for Trump because they want more tax cuts for billionaires who funded Trump's campaigns. What we learned about Latinos and immigration is that it is very complicated. I will not repeat the whole anecdote. But my Mexican American immigrant hair stylist was not buying what some White Gay guy who was the customer before me was selling about how Trump is a monster who attacks all Mexican immigrants as rapists. She said some Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. I think Harris did a very good job of taking a conservative line on immigration. Turns out it was too little, too late, I think. I'm actually more worried about one of my friends who I just got off the phone with. The discussion now is, "Do I cut off friends who voted for Trump? Do I cut off family members?" That was the question he was asking. For me the answer is NO. I'll congratulate them. It's still a democracy, and they won. If Trump overreaches and does fascist things, the resistance will be immediate and fierce and unrelenting. That said, @reader was absolutely right. Can America withstand Trump's fascist tendencies? Check back with me in 2026. The one who comes out of this smelling like a rose is Mark Halperin. He is the person I have listened to the most, for months. In part because he has his 2Way daily. I posted that when Dan Turrentine, his Democrat co-host, said Republicans would win 54 Senate seats a few days before the election, I was shocked. But he was close to correct. Thankfully, as of now, maybe it is more like 52? I feel sorry for Alan Lichtman and Ann Selzer. They are both highly respected experts, who always get it right. Or at least are only off by a little bit, when it really matters. They were both WAY OFF on 2024. Why that is could be a thread in itself. But as I posted repeatedly, I had every reason to think they were right. This is splitting hairs, but I will say this. Selzer was not wrong about older White women. Trump won them by 11 points in 2020, and 5 points in 2024. If that was the ONLY change, Harris would have won. So we really do need to talk about Latinos, who drove Trump's victory. The part of Lichtman's analysis I have wondered the most about was the economy, stupid. In 1992 he counted one key against Bush 41, because he said the economy was in recession in early 1992. Technically, that is true. His key literally says that if the economy is in recession for one week in the year of a Presidential election, you lose that key. I think the 1991 recession technically ended in January 1992. Technically, there was no recession in 2024. But the overwhelming reality that we all heard ad nauseum is that lots of Democrats - LIKE LATINOS AND BLACK MEN IN PARTICULAR - felt like this was a recession, even if it wasn't. So that gets you into an obscure debate about whether Lichtman misjudged his own Keys. Once the dust settles, I'll be curious what Lichtman says. Last night he was just stunned. He literally almost could not speak. I just spent a few minutes clicking through hours of him just being stunned and useless. He lost a lot of his cache last night.

I answered the question already. But now that it has happened, I will answer it again. I will resist. I will repeat several other things I said above. This is obviously a big win for Putin. Congratulations, Genocide Man. That said, winning the battle is not winning the war. Trump will not end the Ukraine War in the next 24 hours. In fact, it's hard to imagine Trump will agree to the terms Putin and Ukraine will want. We'll see. As I said above, Putin and his foreign policy staff all understand this quite well. Trump's win, which had almost nothing to do with Ukraine or Putin, does not change the fact that NATO is stronger and Russia is despised. It further ensures the question of whether Ukraine joins NATO now becomes frozen, for years or decades to come. Genocide Man does not want Ukraine in NATO, and Ukraine does not want to be part of Genocide World. So at best there is a cold peace. The economy of Genocide World is still everything I said it is. Putin was running out of money, and Russian men to process into meat. So there is no question that he just won a huge battle. Probably the most important thing is he exposed America as an unreliable ally. Congratulations. But that still isn't going to stop Genocide World from collapsing of its own rot, death, and stench. Sorry.

I'm going to just cut and paste the first comment on Ruy Teixeira's essay above. Anyone who wants to understand why Donald Trump was elected thanks to Hispanic men should read this: David Gonzales Oct 3 Just wanted to add that I'm second generation Hispanic, and always voted Democratic until I voted for Trump in 2016, the first Republican I ever voted for. I did so because when I taught English in Mexico, I learned that Mexico has very stringent rules on obtaining an employment visa. When I complained to my supervisor, he said that "every country has immigration laws and we have to obey them." What a joke!!! So I came back and voted for Trump. I also liked that the wanted to bring back manufacturing jobs to America. But the main reason I will vote for Trump in 2024 is that I hate all that woke nonsense: racializing everything, allowing transgender "females" to compete against real women, DEI, cancel culture, defund the police...Anyway, I'm ready to vote for Trump, and if for some reason Trump isn't the candidate, I'll readily vote for JD Vance.

That was an eloquent summary. My emotional reaction is that the biggest disaster here is the thing the election had NOTHING to do with, really. Putin wins. Ukraine loses. And America is now an unreliable ally. We can't just walk that back in four years. I'm not sure I agree this is the worst possible outcome for democracy. Is it bad for democracy that we are a melting pot, and Latino men voted for Trump? That's hard to argue, I think. The second part of what you said is very true. Whether America can withstand Trump's fascist tendencies remains to be seen. I'll double down on what I said yesterday. The resistance will be massive, and it starts today. I think Trump is way more likely to prioritize tax cuts to billionaire donors than jailing his political opponents. Time will tell. This was NOT a vote for oligarchy. But we are one step closer to oligarchy, whether we voted for it or not. It may be slightly more accurate to say Ronald Reagan knew the electorate better than Dems. Trump, an idiot with feral political instincts, just stumbled into it. Susie Wiles is the mastermind. She did it in Florida. Now she did it in America. Whether they can make it last is a whole different question. But the blueprint is being tested in Florida, and it sure held in Florida yesterday. It took close to half a century. But Ronnie turned out to be right. 2024 is when Latinos, especially men, got the memo. Here's one way to address whether Dems know their own party. In 2002 Ruy Teixeira and John Judis, both quite leftist, wrote a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority. Nobody believed it at the time. For years now, Ruy Teixeira has been warning the Democratic Party, particularly about Latinos. Add Bernie's guy, Chuck Rocha, who argues Democrats need to focus on economic populism and pocketbook issues, and moderate on or downplay culture war issues. The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem Deepens It really is getting worse. That was written one month ago by Teixeira. So we can not say we did not see this coming. Teixeira, who loves his Democratic Party, has been screaming it for years. Here's a thought. Let's listen to him and debate what he is saying. He is a liberal patriot who loves America. The good news is that we really don't have to waste time on understanding what happened, or what horrible thing Democrats or Harris did. Harris ran a great campaign. Way better than Biden would have. And Democrats didn't do any horrible thing. This all boils down to a roughly 3 % swing in the electorate. Which can be completely explained by one thing: Latinos. Especially Latino men. Last night David Axelrod and Van Jones both tried to do "racism" on CNN. I get it. Because I feel the same gut level anger they obviously displayed that we could not see fit to elect a Black woman. Karl Rove absolutely clocked Juan Williams on Fox when he tried to do a version of "Black men are racist." I agree with Rove. It makes absolutely no fucking sense to argue that Whites, who voted for Harris more than they did Biden, are "racist" or "fascist" for doing so. Are Latino men "racist" or "fascist" for making a massive swing to Trump, that handed him his victory? I think that is a losing argument for Democrats. If we make that argument, we will make Reagan's wish a permanent reality. Let's not do that. Let's face facts. America is a vibrant democratic melting pot, just like we were two days ago. On this one, Latino men had their say and changed the outcome of the election. I'll respect that, even if I disagree. Pendejos! 😉 It is much easier for me to respect it when I try to understand why it happened. And I think the explanation is incredibly obvious and undeniable. Never Trump Republican Mike Murphy summed this up best when he said a month or so ago that Kamala Harris had a "wall of lava" coming at her. And the wall of lava was all the stuff we have been hearing for several years about inflation, higher rent, unaffordable homeownership, high interest rates. Ironically, that is objectively worse today BECAUSE TRUMP WON. Because long term interest rates on bonds just went up A LOT because everyone knows Trump will massively increase America's debt. Mortgage rates, which were bad yesterday, are a bit worse today. This is NOT what Latino men voted for. Was this a wise decision? No. I feel fine saying it was a stupid decision, that was all knee jerk and reactive. But I still have to respect it. It sets up Trump to overreach, just like it set up Biden to overreach. Latino men did NOT vote for tax cuts for billionaires. They voted for help. What they will get is tax cuts for billionaires. Game on. The resistance started last night. Mike Murphy was not saying that Harris was doomed. Two days ago he predicted she would win. Like me, he got caught up in the enthusiasm of a campaign Harris ran really well. To me, it just proves his original point. This has happened to almost every leader or incumbent party that presided over COVID+inflation. It is ironic as hell that America fired Trump due to COVID in 2020. And then hired him back in 2024 due to the inflation COVID caused. But it is what it is. The one notable exception is Lopez Obrador, who like Biden tried to shuffle the deck (in Mexico, for constitutional reasons) and let a woman create an image of change. And she won. AMLO is a Trumpy, but lefty, populist. If America had a Democratic AMLO, which we really don't, would Latino men have voted for him instead of Trump? Maybe. But mostly I think a "wall of lava" is what it is. Harris was way more agile than Biden could be. I don't blame her for not being able to outrun it. I see it as a tragedy for America and the world. Trump is going to overreach. For sure, he will have a hog feed tax cut for billionaires that will be yet another Trump bankruptcy. This time he will bankrupt America, for a billionaire hog feed no one voted for. "Tax cuts" were almost the only policy he mentioned last night. The resistance is on. It is principled resistance, based on deeply American values. Latino men did not vote to enrich billionaire Trump donors. Get ready for THAT fight. I went to bed thinking we would lose Democratic Senate seats in all the swing states. Today it looks way less bad. Maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona are saved. Will Rollins, the Gay lawyer in Palm Springs who is the only House candidate I fought for and donated to, may still eke out a narrow victory. It was a very bad night. But it sets up Democrats to finally listen to smart liberals like Teixeira and Judis. Who have been warning us for a long time.

Ann Selzer's canary in the coal mine turned out to be a hologram. Neither race has been called. But the Republican incumbents are leading in the two Iowa House races her poll showed the Democrats would take, in one case by double digits. Iowa of course has been called for Trump.

What's your number, @Moses? I'm gonna have Kamala call you. Maybe you can vote for her. Oh, that's right. You're stuck with Genocide Man. At least maybe you two can figure out what to do with the losing felon after he is convicted.

I'm just going to post videos I find particularly inspiring. Happily, I think we can solve this problem right here. Having due process in the US, we first have to wait for Trump to be sentenced for all his crimes. Like leading an insurrection to beat the shit out of cops and steal a federal election. Or to steal a state election in Georgia. Once the felon is found guilty, @Moses can put in a good word to Genocide Man. And we can send Trump to Russia. Let them all be failing losers together. As long as Genocide Man promises us not to process Trump into meat, like so many Russians are being processed into meat. I mean, it makes sense. Who the fuck would want to eat a Trump steak anyway? 😲

Thank you for at least being honest. For Genocide Man to even have a hope of making his mass slaughter work, he needs to divide America and fuck up democracy. That is the plan. Here is the thing, you genocidal freak. Like all genocidal freaks, you really can't think clearly. I guess you have too much blood or genocide in your brain. So let me help you out here. First, when 700,000 Russians are sent to be processed into meat by Genocide Man, they are dead. That which kills us ................ kills us. They are dead. And you have a whole fucking corrupt and crumbling nation of people who fear Genocide Man and don't want to be turned into meat and would love to not be in Genocide World. in America, that which does NOT kill us .............makes us stronger. You can't understand this, because you are a weak genocide freak. But it is true. We will have record turnout today. People will vote Republican. People will vote Democrat. E pluribus unum. Whereas in Russia, it's more like, "Out of many, we are processed into meat." So Democrats and Republicans want your corrupt, rotten, genocidal nation to fall apart under the rot of Genocide Man. We are united enough on that. And your genocidal freak of a mass murderer united us. Thank you. Genocide Man wanted less NATO. He got more. Genocide Man wanted to weaken America. He made us stronger. You are a genocide freak. Or maybe a Genocide Bot. You are failing. You can't see it, or admit. Please go ahead and let your murderous nation disintegrate. The Soviet Union was a better nation. Whatever follows after your murderous shit hole crumbles will be better. Good fucking riddance.

Eat your heart out, genocide freak. We have freedom. We have debate. We have compromise. We have a growing economy that The Economist says is "the envy of the world." You have Genocide Man. You have a rotten economy. And your national wealth is being spent to send 700,000 Russians off to be processed into meat. We have millions of Americans voting for Republicans today, who they feel speak for them. You have millions of Russians being sent off by a corrupt genocidal sadist to be processed into meat. Why do you think people want to live in America, not Russia? You have little freedom. You have lots of death and genocide. This is why your rotten economy and your corrupt political system is going to collapse. The Soviet Union was a great nation compared to Putin's genocidal shit hole. PLEASE do the world a favor and collapse soon. We all can not wait! P.S. In fairness I should mention the economy and political system in Russia is better than in North Korea as long as Genocide Man does not send you off to be processed into meat.

Are you kidding? I am a total political whore. This is like the orgy of the century!

Excellent point. Listen to what Russian diplomats say. Listen to what the foreign policy leaders of Genocide World say. They get it. They obviously read the polls, and know that under either Trump or Harris WE ALL DESPISE GENOCIDE MAN. WHO LIKES A MASS MURDERING GENOCIDAL FREAK? Russia's foreign policy leaders know that even if Trump wins there won't be a one day peace deal. Genocide Man will still have to slaughter women and children every day. Genocide Man will sends tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of Russians, maybe millions of Russians to be processed into meat. This is why nobody wants to be you. Nobody wants to live in Genocide World. Your point is that absolutely desperate people in the slaughter factory Genocide Man created in Ukraine will flee to Russia where bombs are not dropping on them. What a sick genocidal freak you are. My point is that Russian foreign policy leaders understand all this. They know what Genocide Man, their boss, is like. They know that they are stuck, even if Trump wins. I'll repeat. The Soviet Union was a much stronger and better nation than your shit hole of a rotten, collapsing federation. Genocide Man will run out of bodies, and money. Your foreign policy leaders know they are playing against time. Please hurry up and let your shit hole collapse. America, and the world, can't wait. Time is on our side. And if Harris wins, we have a dynamic younger leader who can rally the world behind her. And is younger and smarter and more unifying than your dumb fuck Genocide Man.

Genocide means never having to say you are sorry. Here's what Wikipedia says: So this is just sick and murderous. You are just confirming you are sick genocide freak who comes here to defend genocide. You start a genocide in Ukraine. Genocide Man slaughters women and children. He blows up maternity wards of hospitals. People are desperate not to die in parts of Ukraine that are slaughter factories. Where every single fucking day Genocide Man sends Russians, and soon North Koreans, to be processed into meat. People who are innocent and do not want to die flee to Russia, because they can, and there are not bombs dropping on them. And then you act like they actually want your genocide? And they want to live in your shit hole, and want to have to flee for their lives? At least those people flee for their lives voluntarily. But in other cases Genocide Man just steals their children to populate his shit hole nobody wants to live in. You are a sick genocide freak. If you are living under the genocidal delusion that this is somehow good or noble, you are just deeply sick. This is like saying Hitler was kind to give Jews a home and a job in concentration camps. You are a sick genocidal freak.

That is where it gets interesting. And, again, why everybody wants to live in the US and nobody wants to live in piece of shit Russia. We have freedom, you don't. And the free press is more free than ever. It is funny that a pro-Trump asshole like Elon Musk, oligarch wannabe, can buy Twitter, ruin it, be an asshole, say whatever stupid shit he wants, and then say we don't have freedom in America. What a stupid fuck. Honestly, I wish we could send Elon Musk to Russia, so Genocide Man could turn him into meat. Or poison him. Genocide Man excels at killing his own people. Elon will want too much power. And Genocide Man will feed him to his dog. I mean, Musk is really stupider than Putin. He owns X, is the richest man in the world, says stupid shit constantly, and somehow thinks America is run by a Deep State. Except for Elon Musk, I guess. It is just stupid shit, endlessly. That's what freedom of speech means, I guess. So we Americans have very different views of whether we should help Ukraine more. MAGA folk who watch Tucker Carson think we help Ukraine too much. Did I mention Tucker excels at sucking Vlad's cock, in public? I watch MSNBC and former Republican Joe Scarborough and think we don't help Ukraine enough. There is no doubt that Genocide Man wants Trump to win. Even though he is the world's worst liar when he says he loves Kamala. Nobody believes Putin. Nobody wants to live in his murderous rotting shit hole. Will Genocide Man win his bet on Trump today? Check back with me later. But I think Genocide Man has already lost the whole fucking ball game. He is a stupid murdering genocidal freak. He has turned ALL of America against him. There are people who would rather see America dump Ukraine. There are people who want America to help Ukraine more. But we all agree. NATO is good. Russia is bad. We simply can not wait for your rotten murderous corrupt Federation to collapse, just like the Soviet Union did. You deserve it. You are genocidal freaks. You deserve to have the whole fucking world against you. Which you do. You deserve it. Believe me, America has been there and done that. Forget about Japan. That was before I was born, after Japan attacked us. They are now our ally. Get in the fucking 21st Century, you genocidal freak. In the century we actually live in, we had our own disaster, Iraq, and our own stupid dumb shit, W, who led the charge into Iraq. So, yeah, America was dumb as fuck. I think W and Iraq is one of the causes of Trump. I don't like forever wars, either. But this is not 2008. This is 2024. And nobody in the whole fucking world likes or respects Genocide Man, or wants to live in Genocide World. Everyone wants out of Genocide World. Genocide World has a huge shortage of people to work in the Russian tech industry, and even the Russian defense industry. Good paying jobs. But Genocide Man is sending Russians to be processed into meat, so everybody who is smart just can't wait to escape Genocide World. Meanwhile, everybody desperate for freedom and prosperity wants into America. Do you understand the difference, Genocide freak? Freedom wins. You lose. You deserve it. Even the most MAGA and Trump of folks don't want to live in Russia. They don't like Russia. They don't want to be you.

And a BIG shoe drops. The smartest Democrats who have been most freaked out about the early vote numbers cite one name, and one name only .............. Jon Ralston. he's the dean of Nevada politics, who like Ann Selzer has gotten it right every time in a state where statewide elections are always close. Ralston has been beating the drum for weeks that there has been a flood of Republican early votes. And that looks bad for Democrats. Like Karl Rove, he says it's very hard to reach conclusions because we just don't know what the new normal of voting is. But he now says Democrats will catch up. So the dean of Nevada politics who always gets it right says Kamala Harris and Jacky Rosen will win in Nevada. If Ralston is right - one last time, like he always is - it's already one strike against Team Halperin. I like this game.

So you just know I gotta go long on this one. Here is an interesting psychobabble answer to your question. If Trump wins, Mark Halperin has been arguing for months we will have the "biggest mental health crisis" in US history. It's a serious statement. He thinks tens of millions of Americans really won't understand how this could happen. They won't feel they recognize the country they live in. I disagree with that prognosis. If Trump wins, it will be like 2016 to 2020 on steroids. There will be enormous Democratic resistance, starting immediately. I'll make it worse, then better. I've watched Halperin's 2Way channel regularly for months. The good thing about it is he has brought both Harris and Trump supporters together to talk in respectful, informative ways every day. That is why I watch it. Halperin clearly feels empathy for both sides. For Harris supporters like me, he thinks what we miss is that lots of Trump supporters simply think the Left has gone too far. And lots of Trump supporters deeply feel the Establishment, meaning most institutions and definitely government, is broken and needs to be disrupted. I don't actually miss that. I get all that. Harris is a California liberal who embodies all these fears and is seen as too far Left. Regardless of who wins, those are real problems we need to fix. And if Trump wins, that will be why. So these are things Democrats better pay attention to, even if we win. What really surprised me is Halperin and his R (Sean Spicer) and D (Dan Turrentine) co-hosts picked who they think will win the House and Senate. All three agree Republicans will take the House. All three agreed Republicans will end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats. The latter really surprised me. Turrentine is a lifelong moderate Democrat who has worked for Jared Polis, Joe Manchin, Hillary Clinton. So is he no Sandernista. But that might give him a clearer and more centrist view of what is really happening. When I heard that, I immediately thought, "Oh my God! Am I blind? Am I really missing something?" Or, all three of them could just be wrong. So now it gets better. I do think Harris will win. I've cited Lichtman, who is never wrong. The stock market has performed exactly like it does in years when the incumbent party wins. The poll averages have Harris slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, and only 0.3 % behind in Pennsylvania. So the polls are tied, as well as unreliable. But there is no bad news for Harris in what I just said. And Halperin is one of a chorus saying Trump's last few weeks were awful. He sounded just like the unhinged menace Harris has painted him to be. So the most interesting thing at the moment is Ann Selzer. She was the canary in the coal mine in 2016 and 2020. Both times she said the country is more for Trump than the polls are telling us. Both times she was right. Now she is saying the exact opposite. Older women in particular are sick of it, and abortion is a huge driver. If Selzer is the canary in the coal mine a third time in a row, it means the surprise tonight will be that the polls modeled themselves too much on 2016 and 2020, for fear of underestimating Trump again. And Harris and Democrats will do better than expected. Selzer's poll shows 2 Democrats in Iowa CD 1 and 3 clobbering their incumbent Republican opponents in what Cook Political Report call toss ups. So if Selzer is right, as she almost always is (she was wrong about Kerry in 2004, but only by a few points) it is going to be a surprisingly good night for Democrats. Democrats will take the House. Basically 2022 redux, but slightly better for Democrats. I watched several interviews yesterday of the data geeks who understand the early vote stuff inside out. That is the best argument Republicans are making now. The early vote is a wave of Republicans voting in record numbers. But the Democratic numbers guys - Tom Bonier, Joe Trippi - say Republicans simply got their core voters to vote early. They have no turnout machine. Meanwhile, Democrats have a massive turnout machine. And we got new voters to vote early. And women are voting is record numbers, way more than men. So the Democrats who understand the math best say Elon Musk, who is screaming that MAGA is crushing it, is an ignorant fool who has no fucking idea what he is talking about. I definitely buy that. They predict a red mirage (which we already have in the early vote numbers Musk cites) followed by a blue wave. If Team Halperin is missing something, it boils down to one word: resistance. To Halperin's credit, he wants to play nice and be empathetic to both sides. In part, I suspect, because his business model depends on it. What he may be missing, that Selzer is picking up, is deep principled bipartisan resistance. Kamala Harris PLUS Liz Cheney. And rage that this whole Trump thing is just NOT okay. If what Selzer is saying is true, MAGA is about to get flushed down the toilet by America. And Team Halperin just missed it. Or, they saw it and discounted it. Halperin actually had a great interview with Ann Selzer a few days ago. But he obviously doesn't quite believe her. Neither, by the way, does Newt Gingrich. How shocking is THAT, LOL? I'll add Michael Moore one last time. He speaks for me. He has been a pretty good canary in the coal mine, too. He is not even pretending to base his prediction on polls. He has a deep gut feeling for the working class, and resistance movements. His Spidey sense tells him we are going to see a wave of women. And it will boil down to RESISTANCE. So I will let him say it in his own moving words below. The part I am quoting is at 7:00 Hope Moore and Selzer are again the canaries in the coal mine, who understand the heart of America more than most.

The issue is nobody believes you. And nobody supports your defense of genocide and Genocide Man. I wonder whether you believe your own defense of genocide. Or whether you are even a person. Can I call you Genocide Bot? Russian disinformation accelerates toward the election You do know you are failing, right? The only reason you have not failed in Ukraine yet is you've had to reorient your shitty corrupt economy around turning 700,000 Russians into meat. The wrecked economy and cost on Russian human life only accelerates all the internal forces in the Federation that will lead it to collapse. You are a shit hole. No one wants to be you. Or to live in your shit hole. Meanwhile, Americans are having a good old food fight. We're voting more than ever. So we may be divided. But we are definitely democratic, and strong. Check back with me tomorrow. I was reading an old article by Stan Greenberg, the pollster, about how Democrats should deal with inflation and cost of living issues, And I ran across this: Again, that article is from 2022, when higher food prices and gas prices were peaking. So Greenberg was discussing ideas of what Democrats should do about it. The article isn't about foreign policy. For whatever reason, he includes NATO and Russia in his survey. And it is telling. What are Americans warmest to? NATO. What are Americans ice cold to? Russia. We despise Genocide Man. Go ahead and turn 1 million more Russians into meat, if you are committed to genocide and murder and killing Russians. It is why the whole world thinks Russia is a shit hole. Putin did this. Genocide Man is why NATO is stronger than ever. And why we despise Putin, and his genocide and failing attacks on democracy. He is as stupid as he is genocidal. What a miserable mess he has made. Thank you for making the US tougher and stronger. Please hurry up and disintegrate, as the Russian Federation is destined to do. Just like the Soviet Union, which actually was a great nation compared to Putin's miserable and murderous Genocide World. No one believes you. No one respects you. No one wants to be you. You are failing.

That's a no brainer. Did you watch the video above? What I will do, and what happens if Trump wins, is actually the same reason Harris will win. "STAND UP." Oh! So sorry! I forgot. You can't do that in Genocide World. You have no idea what it means. You just come here to defend genocide. Full List of Putin Critics Who Have Died in Mysterious Circumstances In Ukraine, a city grieves for a family killed in a deadly Russian missile attack.

That's my point. Genocide freak. You just don't get it, do you? For all our flaws, the United States is a democratic capitalist country that is resilient and strong. In one day we will elect our first Black Asian American female President, a symbol of the strong and prosperous multi-racial liberal capitalist democracy we are becoming. What was the Soviet Union? A failed state. It collapsed of its own rot. What are YOU becoming? GENOCIDE WORLD. A piece of shit country with an economy that processes its own people into meat and invades the neighbor you claim to love. And slaughters the women and children you consider your own. Genocide freak. What do you have? A sadistic mass murdering authoritarian leader nobody wants to be ruled by. No freedom. Oppose Genocide Man and you get prison or poison. And you come here to deny genocide, and pretend it does not exist. Genocide freak. I'm grateful to your sadistic mass murdering awful piece of shit leader. You are stuck with Putin. You are stuck with how he is trashing your economy and destroying your wealth and prestige and processing his own people into meat. He has been a big part of the noise and conflict in America. A Republican, Bob Mueller, proved this and documented the interference of Russia in our elections. That which does not kill us makes us stronger. So what happened? More people vote than ever. Democracy, while in conflict, is alive and well. We are having a free and passionate democratic fight about who we want to be, and what we stand for. Putin, a sadistic corrupt piece of shit monster, has made America stronger. And forced us to fight for what we want to be. Sadly, he has created a genocide in Ukraine. Monster! That is who he is. That is what he does. You are stuck with your monster and rot and death.. We're winning, you're losing. Because your leader is Genocide Man, and he is turning your country into Genocide World. Nobody wants to be you. Nobody wants to live in your hell hole. Seemingly everybody wants to live here. In the United States of America. Yes, it creates some problems. But tomorrow we will elect the child of immigrants, a symbol of the multi-racial liberal democratic society we have fought for, and are becoming. Eat your heart out, genocide freak.

Now be nice. Here's Tim again, interviewing Ann Selzer. Please .... no comments about Tim's choice of hair products. It gets better. It sounds like two of four Iowa districts may flip from red to blue. One by a large margin. Unless her polls are just totally off. My take away is this may be a classic case of "the action is in the reaction." As Selzer notes, a six week abortion ban dropped in Iowa this Summer. She thinks that is one factor driving a shift. It certainly fits with the broader narrative that reaction against abortion bans has been underrated. This also reminds me of Super Tuesday 2020. There was really no logical explanation for how Biden's broken down campaign won in states like Minnesota and Massachusetts where he had no campaign, and sitting US Senators were his opponents. But sometimes organic waves just happen. We'll see soon. The other interesting question is whether any of this is a canary in the coal mine for other states. Selzer gives the smart professional answer: who knows? This is about Iowa. But Texas and Florida are the other two states that come to mind. Texas had an abortion ban drop in 2022. Florida's dropped this year. There's really nothing in either state's polling that suggests some wave of women who are reacting to abortion bans are about to deliver a shock Senate win. But it would explain why both Senate races seem to be at least a bit closer than they should be. In 2018 when Beto was hot, the final RCP polling average showed Cruz leading by 6.8 points. The closest Beto was in any individual poll was 3 points behind. The final results were Beto lost by 2.6 %, significantly outperforming the polls. Right now the three most recent polls in Texas all show Cruz 4 points ahead. It seems nuts to think there will be a blue wave in Texas, kind of like in 2018. Even though it fell short of taking out Cruz. If anything Texas and Florida have been ground zero for Latinos moving to Trump. At the very least, this suggests that while there may be long term movement of Latinos to the GOP, or Trump, in Texas and Florida, there are also powerful countertrends in both states.

Absolutely. The potential good news here is that if Harris wins Iowa, not only does it put the election in the bag for her. It throws a curve ball at all the election denialism that is already baked into the cake if it is a close race. This poll was the canary in the coal mine in 2016. I remember that well. It tore into the narrative about Hillary cruising to victory. This poll tears into the narrative that it is a close race. There have been concerns raised here that I am drinking Mark Halperin's Kool Aid. I'm wondering whether Halperin is drinking the Kool Aid. He recently trashed his media colleagues for buying David Plouffe's assertion that late breaking voters were going to Harris by 10 points or more. He quoted Chris LaMAGA or whatever his name is in Trump World saying all Harris has now is a losing "bullshit machine." Halperin has been asserting that Harris's path to victory in the Sunbelt is seemingly closed, perhaps. While he cities "insiders" on both sides, he mostly sounds like he is a voice for Trumpers these days. I'll start a different post on this, because it's both interesting and funny, I think. Halperin has been going off about how unfair the media has been to Trump recently. Like how they handled the "shooting Liz Cheney" thing. Aw. Poor Donald Trump! Don't ya hate how everybody bullies him? Then again, there is growing evidence that lots of women don't like male bullies. Iowa confirms that Independents, especially women Independents, may be breaking for Harris in a huge way - enough to maybe create a shock win. Here's happy Gay boy Tim Miller talking about the new NYT/Siena poll, which is another established heavy lifter. They show Harris has a 16 point lead among people deciding in the last few days. Which explains why Harris leads in North Carolina and Georgia in their poll. By the way, @Pete1111, we found the secret weapon to tone Tim down. Daylight savings time!

Proof of concept, as we discussed. Sam Stein literally had to tell Tim Miller to take it down from here to here. Gotta love out happy Gay boy!

A few really important parts of this: This is double bad news for Trump. He is losing women. And women are the ones who are most likely to vote. More evidence that the wave of women is growing, and can not be stopped.

I'm not denying any facts whatsoever. You are. The problem with the US right now is that everybody wants to get IN. The problem with Genocide World is that everyone wants to get OUT. Genocide World is a rotting murderous piece of shit country that is going to collapse. You are a shit hole. Sorry. You don't have freedom. You have a shit economy. You turn your people into meat. These are just facts. Yes, too many poor people desperately want into the US because it means freedom and prosperity and hope. Even first generation immigrants, Mexican Americans, are pissed off that it is just TOO MANY PEOPLE who want IN. Meanwhile, anyone with talent in Russia wants OUT. Because they don't want to be processed into meat by Genocide Man. These are just facts. Genocide Man has to get Crazy Kim to send his people over to be processed into meat. And we know that Crazy Kim is not sending his best. 😉 So you can trash wealthy Americans all you want. Because it is what undemocratic authoritarian Russia WILL NEVER HAVE. Eat your heart out, you genocide freak. Your piece of shit country is going to collapse. And you deserve it. Because you are the land of genocide, rot, and death. The problem in the US is there are far too many rich Americans in states like where I live, California, who are fabulously wealthy because right now, as The Economist said, the US economy is the envy of the world. So even liberal Democrats like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are timid about raising taxes to help the working class. So some of the US White working class is having a nice little failing peasant's revolt with Trump. The Democrats could solve this problem by raising taxes on the rich to help the working class. Trump won't do it because he is a lying selfish piece of shit. Harris is afraid to do it, too, because her donors are Silicon Valley fat cats. So this is a problem. And you are right. When she wins, and if she has the votes to raise taxes on billionaires, some of these rich Americans who have little or no real loyalty to America will leave. Boo hoo! These are facts. Meanwhile. you live in Genocide World. You can't even think of having a peasant's revolt, because Putin would kill them all. All he has to do is send them to the front to be processed into meat. These are facts. Everyone knows it. You have no democracy. You have no freedom. Even your murderous sadist leader is afraid of having to force his own people into going to the front to be slaughtered. And your economy, which is running out of wealth, now depends completely on the slaughter of Russians. You have to kill or injure something like 700,000 Russians just to keep the piece of shit Russian economy from collapsing. So eat your heart out, genocide freak. Go ahead and try to convince me that it is a problem that some rich Americans, who are free to do what they want, want to go live in Antigua or San Miguel or wherever. Because they sure as fuck don't even want to set foot in your worthless shit hole of a country, which is drenched in blood and going to collapse. You deserve it, genocide freak. Eat your heart out that you will never have our wealth, our power, our freedom, or our prestige. Because your sadistic leader is Genocide Man.