stevenkesslar

Actually, there is technical term for this. "Tax reform." Coming soon to a Republican Congress near you. Every night, every legal Latino in America prays to the Blessed Virgin Mary for tax cuts for Elon Musk. Let Earth receive her King. Glory to Trump forever!

I think this is a big miscalculation by the Bozo MAGA types, and also to a great degree the press. I think it's partly because they both like the "landslide" drama. The big question that gradually bubbled up in Trump's first term was collusion with Russia. Last I checked, Bob Mueller was a Republican, working under the authority of a Republican AG. He indicted Russians and laid out Trump's potential collusion and actual obstruction in detail. Even so, Trump and MAGA have insisted ever since that it was a big Democratic nothingburger. And, in fairness to Trump, no crime was proven Now the issues are way more serious. January 6th showed the whole world what Trump is really capable of. Will he be a dictator on day one? Will he try to jail or kill his political opponents? What other democratic norms will he try to demolish? There might be an assumption that since Trump won by a few million votes, all these issues just went away. The polls, which actually did a pretty good job of predicting Trump would win by a point or two, make it very clear that many voters simply voted against the Biden economy. They are hoping Trump is different this time. I hope they are right. So all we have to do is just let Trump be Trump. He certainly has won the right to do that. Maybe he will be kindler and gentler, and shower child tax credits on Latino and Black Moms and Dads. And cut child poverty in half. I sure hope so. But I ain't holding my breath. 48 % of America - at least - is simply hoping what we fear won't come to pass. I don't think that is being calculated in. I've loved watching Mark Halperin's 2Way. To his credit, he has tried really hard to get Trump voters and Harris voters to talk to each other, and understand. I think it works because the people he attracts are mostly not the true believers. They mostly were able to be clear about their deep reservations about both Trump and Harris. I think one thing Halperin just deeply misreads is this notion that Harris supporters are now going to have the biggest "mental health crisis in US history" - Halperin's words. It's silly, really. Because we know how this already played out from 2017 to 2021. We're not going to go crazy. We're going to resist if and when Trump actually does what we fear he is going to do. Stan Greenberg wrote about this already, as Trump 1.0 was growing more and more distrusted and unloved. In fairness to Trump, none of this applies if who we elected is the kindler and gentler Trump, who wants nothing more than to shower child tax credits on the working class. And end child poverty. If Trump instead showers tax cuts on billionaires, "protects" women against their will, and crushes democratic norms to get his way, that's a whole different thing. Just as we can't say the election shocked us, the resistance that follows won't be shocking, either.

Yes, Genocide Man offered Ukraine peace by invading their country. It's just obvious, isn't it? This is the hard part for Russia. The polls showed very clearly that before the invasion Ukraine was more or less split down the middle. They were quite open to Russia, and candidates that wanted to ally with Russia. Now they all hate you. They want you dead. And they are killing hundreds of thousands of Russians. The hatred has nothing to do with the US, or Europe, or NATO, who they respect and want to be allies with. It has to do with Genocide Man, and genocide. Nothing you can do will change the fact that they hate you. Blame it on yourselves, and your genocide.

Duh! We don't even have to guess with you. You are a fascist, and you yearn for fascism. We read it here first. No doubt, the millions of people who voted their pocketbook for Trump will cheer and worship him when he throws the Jews the illegals in camps. And remember. They're only vermin poisoning our blood because Goebbels Trump said so. Every King knows the illegals are our misfortune! How do you say that in German, by the way? And why are you so cruel?

Like I said, enjoy your cruelty while it lasts. When Trump starts deporting the parents of legally American kids, or the kids themselves, cruelty won't look so good anymore. And Lichtman will still have his hair. 😉 You can keep beating Lichtman up all you want. I still like The Keys as an explanation for why people vote the way they do. What he clearly got wrong this year was the economy, stupid. He needs to change that key to reflect the fact that, just like in 1992, when it feels like a recession - or when inflation hits hard like in 1980 - it is horrible news for incumbents. That is the obvious thing that I think almost everyone agrees on. @Moses is definitely on to something with this idea that about 10 million Biden supporters did not vote. We know some of them shifted to Trump. But as @Moses said, it's not really that Trump improved on his 74 million votes. As of now he has added 500,000 votes from 2020. It's that Harris didn't get something like 10 million votes (probably more like 8 to 9 million when the counting is done) that Biden got in 2020. If the 2024 electorate was the same as 2020, I'm pretty sure Harris would have won. It will be really interesting to learn who those 10 million people are, and why they did not vote. But comparing the CNN 2024 exit polls to the 2020 exit polls gives us some clues: In 2020, voters aged 18-29 were 17 % of the electorate, but only 14 % of the electorate in 2024. In 2020, Blacks were 13 % of the electorate, but only 11 % in 2024. In 2020, Latinos were 13 % of the electorate, but only 12 % in 2024. So that has to be millions of votes missing right there. The big winner was voters 65 and older. There were probably more of them, and Harris did better with them than in 2020. It makes sense. They own more stocks, and homes. So they were the big winners in the huge leap in net worth, home prices, and the stock market under Biden. Young people, Blacks, and Latinos faced with soaring rent were not happy. Trump voters should be more than a little concerned that in 2024 you won what was not a landslide mostly because something like 10 million young voters, Blacks, and Latinos stayed home. What happens if they vote in 2026 and 2028, and favor Democrats like they usually do? Although there is some great news for Trump and the working class. We all know what Blacks, Latinos, and young people demand more than anything else: tax cuts for billionaires. Oh, and corporations, too! When Trump passes his hog feed tax cuts and the young, Latinos, and Blacks who are not rich get crumbs, that will no doubt make them want to vote Republican for the rest of their lives!!!!!!! But just to be 100 % sure, Trump really needs to cut their health care, too. Not being able to afford health care is even more revered than MLK by most Blacks.

Boy do I wish you were right! Remember, I was in the minority saying the Iraq War was a huge mistake. And I'd go along with calling THAT a genocide, too. The US lost tremendous amounts of good will. And Iraq opened the door for Genocide Man to say, "Okay. I can do the same. Genocide or bust!" I'll be broken record about this. If Democrats had spent more money on child tax credits to Latino and Black families and less on weapons, Harris might have won. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump and Republicans will spend more on the poor, like child tax credits, is delusional. They will cut taxes for billionaires and corporations that price gouged. That is what working class Latinos want, of course. Every night working class Latinos pray for tax cuts for billionaires. LOL. There you have it again, delusional Genocide Freak. Americans despise Genocide Man and Russia. Americans are warmer to NATO than about anything else. That poll predicted some of what just happened. Democrats like enviro groups. But they also like US natural gas and US nuclear power. Now is a time for us Democrats to face facts and shift. The poll that is from is Stan Greenberg, who more than any pollster knows what might work better with the working class. His wife, Rosa DeLauro, is a member of Congress and was champion of the child tax credits. When Manchin killed them, she said this was a "big mistake" for Democrats. She was right. So now what we have instead is Trump, who is not going to favor the poor. They will get some crumbs with the billionaire tax cuts. But that's all. Pop quiz: Which US President decided to send weapons to Ukraine? Answer: Donald Trump So, yes. Trump plays everything both ways, including Ukraine. Genocide Man of course knows this. Trump will be constrained by America's commitment to NATO, and to Ukraine. If he hands Ukrainian women and children over to Genocide Man on a platter, to rape and kill, it will not go down well. Ukraine is adamantly opposed to being part of Genocide World. Get out of your delusions! As of right now Harris would be President if 130,000 people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had voted for Harris rather than Trump. Or, if 250,000 Biden supporters in 2020 voted in those three states in 2024 instead of staying home, she would have won. 250,000 is a lot of people. But not much when you compare it to how many Russians Genocide Man has processed into meat in just a few years, in a much smaller and weaker and failing country like Genocide World. So don't overestimate the nature of Putin winning one very important battle. I agree with you that fewer dead Ukrainians and Russians would be a mercy. Funny that a Genocide Freak like you, who backs the sadistic mass murderer who started the war, comes here to preach about peace and mercy. Go preach about mercy to Genocide Man and see how that goes.

You're obviously spending lots of time pulling up quotes about Lichtman. Why do you get so much pleasure out of being cruel? Enjoy it while it lasts. Absolutely! You're not gonna get a debate from me on that. I already posted a lot about it. Here's more, focusing on what we can learn from the success of our "Latino working class" neighbor. While turnout was bad for Democrats, Harris also got over 5 million more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016. 2020 turnout was record breaking. So it's no surprise overall turnout went down. But your point is correct. Trump supporters got out and voted. A lot of Democrats, or maybe they should be called soft 2020 Biden supporters, didn't bother. And the most concerning trends were Latinos and young voters, especially men, who moved heavily to Trump. The only nice thing about it is that it's so clear and obvious from the Votecast polls that no one can be confused about it. It obviously had mostly to do with the economy, stupid. Every Democrat is now talking about "working class" and Latino. This is part of a global trend. Almost everybody who ruled during COVID+inflation is being punished at the polls. Except for Genocide Man, of course. Russia doesn't have real elections. Kind of weird for a Genocide Freak like you to be lecturing me about elections. But go ahead. Rub it in if you want. It was a failure. Team MAGA is already overreaching. Biden won by 5 million votes and about 4.5 % in 2020. When the votes are all counted Trump will win by a little over 2 million votes, and maybe 2 %. Hardly a landslide or a mandate. So we'll see how it goes. But it's almost certain Trump will want tax cuts for oligarchs like Elon Musk and corporations. Mexico is the interesting exception to the rule. I knew Sheinbaum won big. But your point about 10 million less US voters made me curious. So I checked. AMLO won in 2019 with 30 million votes, That was just under 55 % of about 57 million Mexican voters. Sheinbaum won in 2024 with 36 million votes, which was 62 % of about 60 million votes. So it was the opposite of the US. Higher turnout. And a huge mandate to a Latino working class party for more of the same. Plus they elected their first female leader. And inflation in Mexico was as bad as in the US, peaking at 9 %! I want the US to be more like Mexico, and less like Genocide World. Trump will do the opposite. He'll buddy up to Genocide Man and oligarchs like Musk. It won't be popular. That's not what Latinos voted for. What worked in Mexico? Lots. But I'll state three big things. First, social pensions for seniors and lots of other things to boost the working class. Including a guy who personifies working class sensibilities. Second, defend the police rather than defund the police. A book can be written about AMLO's "hugs, not bullets" policy. But he made a big show of hiring cops and paying them more and reducing violent crime, which did go down in Mexico after the pandemic. He also stressed energy independence. So he is the poster child for a style of "Latino working class populism" that worked better than what Biden did. Every time I talk about this I will repeat that if Democrats had fought like hell for the expanded child tax credits, which helped tens of millions of Latino, Black, and White working class families and cut child poverty in half, Democrats might have had a result more like what AMLO and Sheinbaum pulled off. Anyway, Mexico did a better job than the US, where Harris lost by a few points. And both did better than Genocide World, where political opponents to Genocide Man are jailed and killed. And where he sends his people off to be processed into meat. You must be pretty jealous! I'm not jealous of all the Russians Genocide Man is sending off to be processed into meat. Or of all the Ukrainians he is slaughtering. By the way, as the polls I've posted before show, Americans love NATO, and despise Russia. Despite voting for Trump, they don't want to end support for Ukraine. If Trump tries to appease his pal Genocide Man by moving against NATO, there will be tremendous backlash.

You know, you did say the same dumb shit in 2016. And we know how that ended. Trump lost. It is natural that clowns overreach. You are overreaching. But, hey, enjoy your cruelty while it lasts. You earned it. The polls made it clear Americans oppose mass deportation. Including ones who voted for Trump, holding their nose. So when the glorious Trump trains of Freiheit und Arbeit come to round up innocent children, or their Latino parents, America will resist. Especially Latinos. Did you miss that in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020? Poor cruel thing! You really should know better. But you're cruel. So you don't.

You're for genocide. So why not, slavery, too? Genocide Man's people are essentially slaves, being sent off to be processed into meat. The electoral college is a remnant of slavery. You should like talking about that. You come here to bring division and hate. So of course you should relish the America of slavery, which was a form of genocide. I actually think it is cool that young Black men are sent to Ukraine to be processed into meat are now welcome into the Republican Party, rather than being told they can't vote. Up with America! Down with Genocide World! In terms of the popular vote, Harris is now losing by half the margin Trump lost by in 2020. Trump is just a liar who lies. In 2020, when he lost by twice as much as Harris, he denied that he lost and brought hate and division to America. Now that he won by half as much as Biden - size matters! - he wants to say it is a huge landslide. Poor thing. So small! He may just barely get 50 % of the vote when they are all counted. The interesting thing is that in most of the swing states, Trump won by a small margin, and meanwhile most Democratic Senators won by a small margin. So yes, it is trench warfare. Something you and all the hundreds of thousands of Russians, especially minorities, that Genocide Man is processing into meat should understand. The war is being won or lost by inches.

Because you don't want to engage in a discussion about all the cruel things you say. Why are you so cruel? Neither does Trump, it seems. So he will probably do many cruel things, just like in his first term. A relatively small slice of voters overlooked the cruelty because they voted based on their pocketbooks, and are hoping that Trump's tariffs raise prices 10 or 20 % and he cuts their health care subsidies and Medicaid. Oh, wait. They are hoping Trump does NOT do those things. They are hoping for tax cuts for billionaires and mass deportations of American children. Oh wait. They are hoping he brings prices down and is not cruel. We'll see. This was NOT a mandate for cruelty. Why are you so cruel?

True, and false. Figuring out who will win The Presidency is complicated. I spent way more time watching Mark Halperin's 2Way than Lichtman this Fall. In retrospect, I know for sure I wanted to believe Lichtman. At one point a few months ago Halperin basically trashed Lichtman and his rigid "data in, data out" system. Meanwhile, for the last few weeks of the campaign Halperin was saying the Trump people seem to be pretty confident they will win. He predicted days before the election that Republicans would win 53 Senate seats and the House. In this case an exceptionally good reporter beat Nostradamus. But the idea that any of this is simple or easy to predict is just a bad idea. I'm now going to post two of my favorite analysts, both of whom Democrats should listen to very closely right now. Ron Brownstein and Ruy Teixeira. Because I follow both of them closely, I can say with certainty this election was a big disappointment, but not a big surprise. I don't know that anyone is really surprised. We have been hearing about inflation and immigration and Biden's low favorability rating endlessly for years. How could anyone who's been paying attention say they are shocked? Brownstein is the gold standard for this election, and any election. Bill Clinton, who Halperin says is the most canny politician of our age, bar none, agrees. This is at least the fourth Bill Kristol interview with Brownstein I have watched since 2018, breaking down the electorate. One concept that stands out above all others is that this is narrow trench warfare. Both sides live in a "calcified" political system. So you win by inches. Democrats won by inches in 2020 and mostly held their ground in 2022. But we did lose the House by inches in 2022. Trump won by inches in 2024. In Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and probably Arizona the Democratic Senate candidate won. Casey lost by inches. Right now there is a net change of one seat - ONE SEAT - in the US House. So journalists are calling this a landslide. Give me a fucking break. As of right now, Trump won by about half of Biden's winning margin in 2020. Reagan won a landslide in 1980 and 1984. 2020 and 2024 are not landslides. They are winning by inches. When the other 25 % of the vote is counted, Trump will have just over or under 50.0 % of the vote, and Harris will have over 48 %. Landslide? Here are the two most important things Brownstein says, in my view. First, this was a national performance review, and Biden and Harris failed. I do think it is sufficient to say that almost every incumbent in the world who presided over COVID+inflation has faced hell from voters. Brownstein argues if Biden were at the top of the ticket, it would have been worse. I don't think it's even a question. Harris brought in enthusiasm, volunteers, and money that saved lots of Democrats who narrowly won, including the ones I mentioned above. He argues there is no precedent in US history for an incumbent party winning in these circumstances. Meaning when the incumbent is NOT running (Truman, LBJ, W) and the country is in a bad mood, their Veep or successor is going to face enormous headwinds. The shift was uniform all over America. So I think Brownstein is right. This was a performance review, and Biden and Harris failed. Second, Brownstein cites a ton of exit poll data that shows lots of voters elected Trump despite their misgivings about both his fascist sounding behavior, and his policies on issues like abortion. A majority of Americans, including some who voted for him, think his views are too extreme. They don't support his anti-democratic words and behavior. So both Susie Wiles and the American voters have our fascist wannabe on a tight leash. If @EmmetK thinks this is a mandate for cruelty, Trump crime, and tax cuts for billionaires, he may be surprised. Enjoy your cruelty while you can, @EmmetK. I'll reinforce one key point. Carter lost in a landslide in 1980, while winning 56 % of the Latino vote. The final number is out, but Harris probably lost with a slightly smaller share of Latinos. And they were the key group that turned massively against Democrats, based on pocketbook issues. The seepage that occurred with Black men happened for the same reason. So it is at best premature to say there is any realignment here. In 1992 Latinos turned against another incumbent, Bush 41, because of a weak economy. This is how it works in America. The idea that Democrats are now doomed forever is at best premature. If Trump starts deporting legally American kids of "the illegals" Latinos will go nuts. You read it here first. If the TRUMP WE FEAR is the one that shows up in January, there will be a massive shift back in 2026. This is a war that is being fought by inches, not by landslides. The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition It’s time to face the facts. Ruy Teixeira Nov 07, 2024 Teixeira has been warning Democrats for years. The irony is that decades ago when he and John Judis wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority they were viewed as wildly liberal. And they were. And are. When that book came out Democrats were in the political wilderness. Now we just had the most liberal and pro-union President ever, arguably. Trump 2016 was anti-union. Dan Osborne ran a great race blasting "millionaires run by billionaires" but siding with Team Trump on immigration. Democrats just lost a huge battle by inches. So what? This election was not a mandate for more tax cuts for billionaires and corporations that profited by price gouging. But that is exactly what we are going to get. Anyone want to predict how popular that will be? The counterfactual I would most like to run is what would have happened if Democrats had fought like hell for those child tax credits? In effect, the tax credits did this to tens of millions of working class families with kids: "Inflation took 25 % out of your pocketbook. Here are tax credits that put it back." Plus it cut Black and Hispanic child poverty in half. Given a choice between more of that, or "we will cut your health care and cut taxes for billionaires", which might America have chosen? This is exactly the kind of stuff AMLO did in Mexico. Not just words. Policies and actions that economically helped the Mexican working class during hard times. AMLO and his party beat the wall of lava that took down most incumbents, including Biden and Harris. So Teixeira has been right twice now, about massive historical trends. I think Lichtman probably has a harder time being objective about it than Teixeira. I wanted to believe Lichtman. But Teixeira turned out to be closer to the truth. Brownstein didn't really get too deep into the cultural issues that Teixeira focuses on. Did Democrats really lose because of what Harris said years ago about prisoners getting sex changes using taxpayer money? Probably not. If Latinos felt they were getting ahead economically under Biden and Harris, she probably would have won. But that would have been because lots of moderates overlooked the fact they feel Democrats went too far on "defund the police" and similar cultural hot buttons. Just like they overlooked all their fears about Trump and his disdain for democracy. And his lies and chaos. This is going to be hard for Democrats. But I think Teixeira is right that the "woke" moment is over. "LatinX" was a bad idea that is now thoroughly discredited. Democrats now have to think very hard about what we can do to help working class Latinos. I know! Let's cut taxes for billionaires! 😨 This moment is so clear that it helps guys like Teixeira and Judis who have been screaming for years that Democrats need to get back to their working class roots.

Moi? Why are you so cruel? I mean, yeah. I had the time of life being a hooker. For about two decades. Is there a problem with it? It's just a funny - but cruel - thing to say on a website like this. But then, we all know you're as good at being cruel as I was at being a hooker. You thrive on hate. I made a ton on sex and fun. I'd rather be me than you. We could talk about why I was such a successful hooker, and landlord, and investor, if you want. Or we could just talk about why you are cruel. Why are you so cruel? You already seem to be excited about this next go round of separating kids from their parents, or deporting legally American kids. Why are you so cruel?

Here's an interesting thought. I'm hearing a lot that this is the worst year for Democrats since ................. whenever. The dinosaur age? And as those poll results I posted show, it actually is the worst year for Democrats on the Presidential vote since there has been polling on how Hispanics voted. That said, we went into election 2024 with 212 Democrats, 220 Republicans, and 3 vacancies. As of right now, if every House candidate who is leading in a close race wins, we will have 212 Democrats and 223 Republicans. So the Republicans get the 3 vacancies. And they have one more House seat than the 222/213 split in 2022, when Democrats escaped the "red wave". If this is as bad as it gets, what happens when it gets better? Other than being bummed that Will Rollins probably will not win in the Palm Springs House district (but it ain't over yet), I'm honestly hoping Republicans win the House. I think I can bet what they will do. But I hope I am wrong. If I am right, in two years no one will be thinking of how the Democrats went too far. Because we will be living with how the Republicans went too far. Speaking of which: https://x.com/KFILE/status/1854546388417188101 Every county in California voted for a "tough on crime" measure. In some ways you could say it is a symbol of how "woke" is overridden. On every ballot measure I first decided how I wanted to vote. Then I read the list of Democratic ballot measure recommendations. Every one matched my preference, except for tough on crime. So I voted for tough on crime. If this is the horrific lesson Democrats need to learn in California, where we are the supermajority, I think Democrats will manage just fine. And if I had to name one way Harris screwed up, this would be it. She could have made a point of endorsing the measure, and talking about how she is tough on crime. She didn't. More broadly, she never had a "Sister Souljah" moment. She needed it, being a California liberal. But it would not have changed the outcome.

Duh! I'm very aware that I'm way more interested in this stuff than most people. But I do think Lichtman was just way off message and wrong when he said "disinformation" is why his Keys were wrong. It's pretty close to saying, "My Keys are fine. The problem is you fucking stupid Trump supporters, who are ignorant and don't understand what I think is good for you." Flip side, since I just watched one hour of Team Halperin, is they think it is condescending and delusional for Democrats like me to think many Trump supporters may end up regretting what they voted for. Remember how in 2016 Trump supporters on Obamacare said there was no way he would cut Obamacare without replacing it with something better? Until he almost did cut it, but for John McCain. So I'm happy knowing too much, just like many Trump supporters are happy not knowing enough.

If you have not watched this interview between Chris Cuomo and Morgan, you should like it. I watched it a while back. But if I call right I think he mentioned Beshear as the kind of Democrat who can win. Of course, you and Morgan will not see eye to eye on Pelosi. He adores her, because she is so effective. Again, I think if Biden were the nominee he would have lost by a much bigger margin. We know for a fact that Harris raised a ton of money and recruited volunteers that saved the asses of many, many Democrats, compared to how things looked the day before Biden dropped out. Credit Pelosi for that. Morgan was right. He calls Pelosi "Little Bo Peep with razors." If you don't believe him, ask Joe Biden. 😨

Really Steven, why would anyone think that any poll is right after this election? Was it Mark Twain that said; There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Polls are nothing more than statistics. Mr Twain is laughing from his grave this week. First, thanks for reading my very long post. I cited so many polls in it that it should be clear that I read polls, and respect them. Even when they are wrong, which they often are. Second, as regards Jan.6th, I'll just cut and paste three: I'll make an intentionally simplistic and false statement. For the good of the Democratic Party, the very best thing that could happen is that Trump ignores all that. If I am being crude and partisan like Trump is, I hope he acts like a dictator on day one. And starts to arrest political opponents, or just any American who protests. And encourages MAGA guys with guns to attack cops in blue cities who actually defend Americans' right to protest. Let's just throw in that he starts rounding up, caging, and deporting the legally American children of "illegals". The resistance will make what happened from 2017 to 2021 look like child's play. That would help Democrats, just like it did in 2018 and 2020. For the good of the country, I think all this future would be horrible. I hope Trump does not go there. But he may. He almost promised to. And, like I said, this was a simplistic and false statement. I don't think this is what most Democrats or Independents want. I do think it is what they fear. I'm a California liberal who would be happy with either Harris or Beshear. Ask me who I would rather have as President, and I will say Harris. Ask me who is more likely to win, and I will say Beshear. I genuinely admire and respect both of them. So this is a debate I welcome. So let me turn this around and ask you a question. Why did Harris do so much better than Biden, who did so much better than Clinton, among voters who felt they were about the same financially as they were four years ago? The answer to that question matters immensely, simply based on math. Because in 2020 it is why Trump lost. If 2020 were like any year from 1976 to 2016, and that group split their vote, Trump would have won in 2020. And not by a small margin. Conversely, if people who felt the same as they did four years ago voted in 2024 the way they did from 1976 to 2016, Harris would have lost in a real landslide. Somehow, she managed to win among people whose financial situation was the same as four years ago by 43 points. That is unprecedented. Why? Just to be extremely clear, the exit polls said that in 2024 24 % of voters felt better off, 30 % felt the same, 45 % felt worse off. Again, my bumper sticker for the whole 2024 election is that 45 % was the "wall of lava" that Harris could not outrun. Not unlike Romney's 48 %, which is why he lost an election he should have won if it were only about the economy. Unfortunately at some point years ago CNN got rid of their exit polls from many past elections. So you will have to take my word for it, since I am obviously a poll geek. As a rule of thumb, from 2000 to 2016, at least 2 in 3 people who felt better off consistently voted for the incumbent party. At least 2 in 3 people who felt worse off consistently voted against the incumbent party. And people who said they are the same split their vote. In many years - How that breaks down in a good or bad economic year largely determines who win. That is why so many pollsters and pundits focused so heavily on the right track/wrong track question. This Gallup poll reinforces the point. The two years in which people who felt worse off vastly outnumbered those who felt better off were 1992 and 2024. Is it a shocker that the incumbent party lost? But look at 2020. Trump should have won in a landslide. 55 % of voters felt better off, even in the depths of COVID lockdowns. So what explains his loss? I think it was all the stuff about unhinged, narcissist, crude, sexist, racist, liar, etc. Some of this is anecdotal. My Republican brother who voted for him in 2016 detested him by 2020 and called him a "megalomaniac." My centrist brother, who I think of as a Bloomberg Democrat, literally kept saying somebody should shoot Trump in 2020. The two US Senators I knew best were Paul Wellstone and Jeff Merkley. So I know some pretty far out there liberals. I am amazed how many moderate people Trump radicalized. That is my explanation for why so many moderate people who felt they were either better off in 2020, or the same as four years ago, fired him anyway. It was the opposite in 2012. This Gallup poll used slightly different wording. In 2012 45 % said they were better off. 52 % said they were worse off. Team Obama knew they had a problem. Their solution was to portray Romney as a fat cat who didn't care about the 48 %. It worked. But in 2020 61 % said they were better off, and only 31 % said they were worse off. 2016 to 2020 was mostly the tail end of the economic recovery and stock market boom that started in 2010 or so. Trump should have won handily with numbers way better than any other incumbent in this century. Why didn't he? How would this sound: Kamala Harris loses to Trump 55 to 43? Over ten points. Imagine how bad that would have been. But if this were 1976, or 1992, or 1996, or 2004, voters who felt the same as four years ago split their vote almost 50/50. In 2024, Kamala won that group -which was 30 % of the electorate - by a 69/28 margin. Again, totally unprecedented. If that group split their vote 50/50, like they did in almost every Presidential election polled before Trump, she would have lost in massive landslide. Michael Steele said something that was in the ballpark of your point on TV this week, but in a much softer way. He said Trump voters have obviously stated they are "good with" all this stuff about Trump being unhinged or a fascist or whatever. I think that is a good phrase. If I were an elected Democrat I would presume that Trump voters will be "good with" some racist insult. Or some joke about Puerto Ricans being garbage. Would they be good with Trump arresting Nancy Pelosi, or watching Trump loyalists beat up cops who are defending some other institution that Trump is attacking? I don't think so. Trump was tailor made for Saul Alinsky's phrase, "the action is in the reaction." What I honestly hope he does is moderate. And try to figure out how to build a right of center working class conservative party. Sadly, I think Trump is clueless on how to do that. He didn't even try in his first term. Tax cuts for billionaires? One person I genuinely like is Susie Wiles. She claims to be a moderate, which is backed up by the fact she worked on John Huntsman's campaign. If there is hope for Trump's working class party, it is with people like her. If Trump is left to his own hatreds and narcissism and cruelty, this will go down the same or worse as his first term. Beshear, or whoever Democrats nominate, will clean the clock of JD Vance, or whoever tries to replace him. Beshear in particular excels at just being the nice down to earth guy you want your daughter (or son 😍 ) to marry. But this is the debate Democrats should be having. Is 50 % of America (I think that will be close to Trump's final vote total) all in for authoritarianism or fascism or racism or sexism? Or did they vote for Trump because they felt worse off, and are hoping he just makes the economy work better for them? I clearly think it's the latter.

Can we just first address your cruelty in victory? It's not a good look. Lichtman said another thing that makes this election different is he has had more hateful bile thrown his way by MAGA true believers than ever before. He says he had to get the police involved. You know, those people that defend us, that you think it is patriotic to beat up? What is your problem,? Why are you so cruel? Lichtman also said for some reason people attack him for having a Jewish nose wearing a toupee. What is the problem with having a Jewish nose wearing a toupee? He proudly proclaims he does not wear a toupee, and it is his own hair. But if he did, what is your problem? It's like saying he's vermin because he has a Jewish nose. No one would ever refer to people as "vermin", would they? Why Trump's authoritarian language about 'vermin' matters Oh. Wait. That is so October 2024. We're past that. Go ahead. Call me vermin. And accuse me of being anti-Semitic again. Your lies are not a good look, either. If you think this election was a mandate for violence, or the deep patriotism of beating up cops, or America's tolerance for hate and cruelty, you are dead wrong. I mean, not dead in the sense that people have guns pointed at your face. Just dead wrong. Trump won despite his cruelty and unhinged statements. You better get clear on that. What I like about The Keys is it gives us an optimistic and even wise way to think about why people vote the way they do. It's not because people said, "Oh, that man is Black. That man is a Jew." Obama won twice. Kamala's Jewish husband was not a problem. I don't need The Keys to tell me this election was either going to be a referendum on the economy and inflation, or on how unhinged and crazy and mean Trump is. People voted on both. Trump won because the economy and inflation were more important. I would argue that is wise. Democracy don't mean shit when you can't feed your family. It's Bill Clinton's "strong and wrong" thing. I think Lichtman is having a bad month. His explanation dug his hole deeper. His main explanation was that Democrats attacked our incumbent President. So the "party mandate" Harris got was at best a mixed blessing. That is true enough. I will always believe Biden screwed up by having to be forced out. Had he not stepped aside, all that Kamala money and Kamala enthusiasm that basically made everything but POTUS a tie would have been gone. I am pretty sure Biden would have taken Tammy Baldwin, Elissa Slotkin, Jacky Rosen, and Ruben Gallego down with him, to name four. Gallego is now a symbol of how Democrats can win in a "red state" by being fierce defenders of the working class. Jon Favreau claimed that Harris lost by about 1.5 % in the swing states, and 4 % on average everywhere else. I have not fact checked that. If it is even partly true, that means all those volunteers and all that money and "joy" kept it from being a lot worse. I will always think that the key mistake Democrats made was in 2020, not 2024. By nominating Biden, who some would argue was already in cognitive decline by 2020, we set 2024 in motion. So what worked as a political Band Aid in 2020 did not look so good in 2024. I think Biden was a good President. But he is definitely old. And he should never have run for a second term. I think it is fair to say that in 2024 incumbency is not a plus. This has been true all over the world. So one explanation is that what is true most of the time isn't true all of the time. Incumbency killed the Democrats. So that basically was a strike against Harris in 2024. Sorry, Alan. But beyond that, it simply was the economy, stupid. This is splitting hairs. But in 1992 Lichtman predicted Clinton would win, because Bush 41 had six keys against him. One of those was a recession. Lichtman was being very lawyerly. He argued that the 1990 recession technically ended in 1991, but the NBER did not declare it over until 50 days after the 1992 election. Whereas in 2024 we have not had a recession. I just think that is way too clever. In 1992 Carville argued, "It's the economy, stupid." I have watched an interview of Lichtman in 1992 when he argued that people feel like we are in a recession. So what Carville and Lichtman proved is that it is very hard to be objective. They of all people should have known that 2024 was a lot like 1992 in that sense. Not coincidentally, Bush 41 was one of the few incumbents who did worse with Latinos the second time around. Now Biden and Harris join the club, for the same reason. My explanation is that incumbency and inflation hurt Harris. That is the big and almost obvious picture. I think Lichtman was not as objective as he tries to be. Oh well. But that would place six keys against Harris, and explain her loss. A lot of Democrats will disagree with me on this. But I think the 2024 election shows voters are wise. Latino men put their pocketbooks and families above all this other stuff. Including racist jokes and horrific cop beatings that most Americans detest. You would be wise to figure out this election was NOT a mandate for any of those things. Or anything, other than that inflation and so-called "open borders" suck. Let's see how much Latino men go wild for tax cuts for Elon Musk and their favorite, Mark Zuckerberg. What we don't know yet is what these Latino men read that made them think tax cuts for billionaires are better. But they probably don't think that. I'm eager to learn more about what they do think. Lichtman is essentially arguing that "disinformation" spoiled The Keys. Because too many people were influenced by guys like Trump and Musk who just lie all the time. The latter is true. But that's not new. Come on, Alan. It is a reason to be concerned about the growing oligarchy in America, with Trump and Musk as poster children. But insulting voters is NOT the way to address that. Democrats have to listen to Latinos and come up with someone and something better. Sorry, but I don't think that is rocket science. In 2020 Biden won by 7 million votes, and about 4.5%. Most of the votes out still are in liberal bastions of California. By the time all those votes are counted, Harris will probably lose by about half of what Trump did in 2020. And for the most part the money and enthusiasm and joy she brought saved lots of Democrats who won or are winning narrow races. I am proud that I backed a lot of good moderate candidates like Jon Tester who lost. We're now in a place where Democrats can and should back moderation and compromise. And play to the better angels of people like Susie Wiles, who seems to be able to keep her pit bull on a leash. At least some of the time. We need to push hard for things like child tax credits that millions of Latino Moms and Dads want. But if Trump takes this as a mandate for cruelty, hate, lies, legal crime for oligarchs, cop beating, and "dictatorship on day one", the resistance will be massive and immediate. As it should be. Why are you so cruel?

Since I am on a roll, one more and then I will stop. In 2006, everyone said home prices never go down. They were wrong. In 2010 people said home prices will never go up again. I bought homes. In 2008 people said the Republican Party was dead. In 2010 people said the Democratic Party was dead. Now people are saying Latinos and Blacks will soon all be Republicans. Give me a fucking break. So one report says Harris got 53 % of the Latino vote. That is slightly worse than Jimmy Carter did, in another inflation election. Note that in 1980 Reagan did win in a landslide. Trump won by about half of Biden's winning margin in 2020. Older White men and women like me did very well in the Biden/Harris years, and our net worth and often incomes soared. That is why Harris came close to winning despite a working class, disproportionately non-White, that struggled because of inflation. It also particularly impacted younger voters who rent and want to buy homes. Is this the new normal? Probably not. The two Democrats who did best above were Clinton and Obama running for a second term, who could talk about how they fought for Latinos. This is despite the fact that Obama was attacked as "Deporter In Chief." So Democrats need to think about whether child tax credits that help Latino Dads and cut child poverty in half are worth fighting for, I think. Unless we want to argue that tax cuts for billionaires lift everyone's boat, so let's just make Elon Musk richer. That's one other piece of evidence that "cultural liberalism" was a problem for Harris. It definitely did not help with Hispanic Catholics. I think before Democrats train our rifles on the faces of transgender people, or "the illegals", we need to remember that it really was the economy, stupid. But I will end by hyperlinking a few of Ruy Teixeira's awesome articles. He and lefty John Judis, who have been fighting for a liberal working class populism for decades, have nailed this topic. The Democrats’ Common Sense Problem Voters Think They’ve Abandoned It Election 2024 The Progressive Moment Is Over Four reasons their era has come to an end. 1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it. 2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it. 3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it. 4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it. The two conservative policy ideas that voters said were mostly likely to get them to vote for a candidate were a crackdown on immigration and more domestic production of natural gas and oil. The two liberal policy ideas that voters said were most likely to get them to vote for a candidate were raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations and restoring the child tax credits. Anyone who has read Teixeira or his Democratic colleague in crime Stan Greenberg for decades would not be surprised.

Thanks, Alan. I'm referring to Alan Lichtman of course. His main explanation for why he called this one wrong is that it is historically unprecedented for a party to attack their own nominee. It makes sense. Democrats threw Biden under the bus. And then had to say, "But vote for his Vice President." Who his staff spent three years trashing. That sure didn't help. We can argue any counterfactual we want. But I think it is almost obvious that Biden would have done far worse. I think Pelosi was smart to stab him in the back, in the interest of her party. The House as of right now has almost NO change. The fact that Democrats could still take back the House, or at least basically have a tie, is not an indicator of a landslide against Democrats. I strongly agree with you that this was mostly about the economy, stupid. And Biden and Harris were always going to lose an election that was a referendum on inflation. I disagree with you about January 6th. I think the polls actually prove it. This is my interpretation of facts. Not a fact. There has been a very clear pattern in these exit polls for 24 years. People who are better off vote about 2 to 3 for the incumbent party. People who are worse off vote about 2 to 3 against the incumbent party. People who feel they are the same as four years ago split their vote. You can see that pattern in 2016. But it has been the same pattern going back to 2000. Almost every time people who feel the same as four years ago split their vote. That pattern changed in 2020. In 2020 people who felt the same as four years ago voted overwhelmingly against Trump. I think that is why he lost. In 2020 almost twice as many people said they were better off than worse off compared to four years ago. Despite that, Trump lost. Most people who felt the same as four years ago voted against him. That had never happened before, going back to 2000. The one exception was "compassionate conservative" George W. Bush in 2000, who was way better liked than Gore. So that time Bush won the "same as four years ago" voters by almost 20 points. That was why W. won a very close race. My John McCain loving brother, who voted for Trump in 2016 and says he would have voted for Trump in 2020 if he voted on the economy, voted against him in 2020 because he decided Trump was a "megalomaniac." He voted for Harris in 2024. He's not going to change his mind. If Trump does act like a dictator on Day One, as he promised, it will send my moderate Republican brother around the bend. I hope I am wrong. But I think Trump is going to alienate people, just like he did from 2017 to 2021. Why did the normal pattern from 2000 to 2016 change so dramatically in the last two cycles? Compare how Harris did in 2024 to Clinton in 2016 among people who felt the same financially as four years ago. I think it is because people do see Trump as a liar, a felon, a sexist, a racist, and unhinged. That's really just a fact. The polls all say it. He won by about half of Biden's margin in 2020. If Trump is smart, he will reach out to these people, and not be a dictator on Day One. Don't hold your breath. Why did Harris lose? I think Never Trump Republican Mike Murphy nailed it a few months ago when he said Harris has a "wall of lava" coming at her. Meaning all the anger and pain about inflation, higher costs, high rent, high mortgage rates. 45 % of voters said they felt worse off financially than four years ago. You can see above they broke very hard against Harris. That was a wall of lava. Or, a wall of Latino men who care about their pocketbooks. She tried hard to outrun it. But I think Murphy was right. Would Biden have run faster and smarter? I very much doubt it. I'd love to see Andy Beshear be the Democratic nominee in 2028. If Harris were the 2024 nominee, after a primary, and she came out swinging for how the Biden/Harris tax credits cut Latino child poverty in half, she may have won. If a Latino man like AMLO were the nominee, he would have won. His party did hold power in Mexico precisely because he did all kinds of stuff to help the Mexican working class, despite COVID. Beshear has done all kinds of stuff to help Kentucky's working class. If she had picked him rather than Walz it would have probably helped a little. But I am glad she didn't, actually. It leaves a wide opening for him in 2028. That is a debate Democrats are now open to, I think. By the way, here's another prediction that failed. Everyone thought that because Democrats did well in 2023 and 2024, before Tuesday - like Beshear winning in Kentucky - it was a good omen. But maybe the better lesson is that if Democrats want to win, we need to realize that a lot of cultural moderates were turned off by Harris, but would vote for Beshear. That's going to be a very hard discussion, because it goes to racism. I am a California White liberal who voted for Harris every time her name has been on my ballot. I was really looking forward to her being our first Black female President. But it is just a fact that immigration drove people nuts, including lots of Democrats. She said and did all the right things by saying we worked with conservatives on a conservative immigration bill. But it was too little, too late. More generally, what did the ads that ran all over the swing states attack Harris for? Being a liberal from San Francisco who supported what lots of moderates simply see as an extreme cultural agenda. That's a fact. There are plenty of women and Black moderates out there. Obama managed to navigate around these issues almost flawlessly, even though he is a liberal. But right now is a very good time to think about why a White guy like Beshear might be a great candidate, if Democrats want to win. And I gotta say. If Democrats had fought like hell a few years ago to keep that child tax credit, so Harris could win a primary and campaign on cutting the rate of child poverty among Blacks and Latinos in half, would Latino Dads have voted differently? Probably. It was not about Harris. She was a good pop up candidate with very little time to push back against an economy that left lots of Americans struggling. Especially Latinos and Blacks and the white working class. I am proud of the race she ran.

You're sick. Deeply cruel. You are. What a mean-spirited jerk. You and @Moses belong together. He comes here to defend genocide and divide people, You come here to say beating the shit out of a cop defending democracy is patriotism. That is cruel and sick. Susie Wiles would be ashamed of having to explain away cruel, sick statements like you make all the time. What will you guys do this inauguration day? Kill some cops and call it patriotism? This is cruel and sick. You are already over reaching. At least you are not promoting genocide - yet. When Trump and Bibi The Baby Killer start levelling Gaza, you'll be the Genocide Clown, no doubt. Explaining away mass slaughter. The part of this that feels worst is that Trump got away with being a felon and criminal. Lots of people, especially Latinos, overlooked that. As well as his racist and sexist jokes and behavior. The polls say that loud and clear. Because they were pissed about inflation and immigration. It doesn't change the fact that Trump unleashed his mob on cops at the Capitol. Or that the Republican Secretary of State in Georgia and his wife were getting MAGA death threats because Trump tried to steal the 2020 election. Trump won by way less than Biden did in 2020 - maybe about half, when all the votes are counted. Democrats have grace, and care about democracy. You say that beating the shit out of cops defending democracy is patriotism. That is cruel and sick. I'll think of how cruel and sick you are when I'm having wine in LaJolla with my Trump supporting niece. She is a conservative who doesn't like the immigration and inflation. She's a kind person, and I love her. You represent the cruel wing of the MAGA party. Congratulations! You are an embodiment of how and why Trump will probably repulse people very quickly, just like he did from 2017 to 2020. Enjoy your cruelty while you can. If and when Trump unleashes his cruelty, like by deporting the legally American children of "the illegals", the cruelty will repulse the majority of America. Especially Latino men and women, who oppose the idea. Savor your cruelty while you can. And this is not an ad hominem attack. It is cruel and sick to defend beating police to overturn an election Trump lost in 2020 by twice as much as Harris just did in 2024. Cruel Sick YOU! The part of this election that feels best is that Democrats like me got what we wanted - a vibrant multi-racial liberal democracy. There is no question Latino men changed the outcome of this election. There is no question they did it based on their pocketbooks. Biden and Harris now join almost every Western leader in the world who COVID+inflation got fired. Including Trump, ironically, who got fired in 2020 because of COVID. So if we want to talk about winners in this election, and not just be cruel sick fucks, can we give a shout out for Latino and Black men? And let's start by applauding Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. The Republican Party used to the be the White guys who said Blacks can't even vote. Now one of Trump's pals is Black conservative House member Byron Donalds. That's change! When Democrats elected Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi engineered a massive wave of women who rejected Trump in 2018 and brought in Democratic House members of every race and gender, that was change! And this is not me saying it. Kevin McCarthy said repeatedly he realized the Republican Party could not survive as a party of old White men. So he went out and recruited guys like Donalds. And then McCarthy got fired by his own team. LOL. Talks about losers! So I'm happy to lose this one, to the extent it means we have a more vibrant and fair multi-racial liberal democracy. Trump has never proven he actually cares about that, with his crimes and cruel sexism and racist jokes and vicious cop beatings. Let's see whether he can change. I ain't holding my breath. But I do know what every Latino in America wants is more tax breaks for billionaires, and a mass deportation of legally American children - or at least their parents! Cruel. Sick. If we want to talk about why Trump won, I encourage everyone to watch the clip above from 34:00 to 40:00. There is something cool about watching a Black Democrat ask a sitting Black conservative US House member to explain what Trump and MAGA offer Black (or Latino) men. This is not the America of Strom Thurmond and George Wallace! It is not the "Make America Sick And Cruel Again" Party! Donalds is eloquent, and hard not to like. His answer is great, as far as it goes. The key line is that lots of Black men remember making money when Trump was POTUS. And with higher prices and ESPECIALLY higher rent they have been struggling. Clearly, for Black men who voted for Trump, that trumped their concerns about Trump the racist landlord and Trump and the Central Park Five. That pretty much says it all, I think. That said, Donalds gives us a litany of how a growing economy is good for Black men, more US energy production is good for Black men, and higher prices are not good for Black men. Great! But isn't this the same "a rising tide lifts all boats" policy that Democrats have repeated for decades, that Black men and women said doesn't really speak to them? Maybe that's why Black men and women voted overwhelmingly for Harris. There's no question that if the 2028 election is about a red hot economy with low inflation and the lowest poverty among Black and Latino children ever, that's good for whoever runs after Trump. Here's the thing. We cut Black and Latino child poverty in half when Biden and Harris were President. That's a winner! Harris's proposal to restore that child tax credit for Black and Latino working class families was wildly popular. It helped tens of millions of working class families get through a period of high inflation allover the world. If Democrats want to win Black and Latino votes in 2028, that is exactly what we have to fight like hell for when Trump proposes and wins more tax cuts for himself. And his billionaire cronies and oil company CEOs. While Donalds says "But, hey, a rising tide lifts all boats." This is democracy at work. I'm lovin' it. America wins! Beating cops to steal an election is cruel and sick. @EmmetK comes here to promote cruelty, sickness, and division.

Great. Unexpected trip. My niece who is the all in Trumper emailed me and said she's making an unexpected business trip to the coast. Fun in LaJolla with a swell gal who is happy her MAGA dude won. We have fun here in America. We're not about slaughtering women and kids like you are, Genocide Freak. But Trump is doin Putin's dirty work already. You and your genocide freaks should be happy!

Yup. By losing an election to Vlad's crony dictator wannabe by about half the number of votes Biden won by in 2020, we are almost as bad as your mass murdering Genocide Man, I guess. Thanks for making me laugh, Genocide Freak!

Glad you are modeling the grace that Mark Halperin is hoping Donald Trump exhibits. Which Trump basically did last night, like when he won in 2016. We'll see how long that lasts. Here's two reasons you shouldn't be such a graceless clown. Which means nothing, of course, since you are what you are. Just like Trump. Trump did not win by a 5 million vote landslide, as you stated on another thread. Harris is beating him by about 2 million votes in California, with about half the vote there in. So I'm guessing Trump wins by maybe 3 million votes when it is all counted. And probably just under 50 % of the vote. Which is a very nice symbol of the fact that the country is split in half. Just like the swing states, and the Senate races in them, have flipped back and forth on the edge of a knife for three election cycles in a row. The nice part about Trump winning a clear electoral college and popular vote victory is we don't have to go through four years of lies and psychodrama about a "stolen election". Not that anyone would ever do that. 😲 Congratulations, and enjoy your celebration. For what it's worth, I did send an email to a niece who is all in on MAGA, congratulating her. It was sincere. And the kind of thing I've done a lot in my life. My only hesitation in offering congratulations is that it was inherently also a critique of her, as well. Since she, like most MAGA folk, could never accept the fact that Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020. She of course won't see it that way. You won't see it this way either. But it is kind of funny that when Biden wins 51 % of the vote, and a 7 million vote margin, it's a stolen election. When Trump wins by 3 million votes, it's a landslide. It would actually be very funny. But for the fact that Trump's lies were a threat to democracy, and did result in the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating. I'm hoping Trump just stays focused on his priority, which is delivering tax cuts to himself and his billionaire donors. But if we do get to the stuff about Cheney and guns pointed at her face or Pelosi and arrest, all your grace and warmth will have been for naught. So sad. And thanks for the compliment on my money well spent. Lots of Republicans, including Team Trump analysts and consultants, have been saying that with so many people saying the country and their personal finances are worse off, any other Republican would have won a race like this by five or ten points. A real landslide. They have a point. But for Kamala Harris and all the money and volunteers she brought in, I do think this could have been a lot worse.

Thank you. I'm going to just keep ranting. There was a brief period of time between Nov. 2016 and Jan. 2017 when there was a palpable fear among Democrats that Trump would turn out to be a secret moderate. He was a right of center Democrat at least for some period of time. Maybe just because he lived in New York. By Jan. 2017 we had "American carnage". Then tax cuts for billionaires, and let's just kill Obamacare. And that was the easy part. Jan. 6th and patriotic cop beatings were just a vision of love off on the horizon. So Trump 2024 is older, more tired, and way more unhinged than Trump 2016. He failed to do most of the shit he promised in 2016. Which is why he was fired. On immigration, he did not build a wall. Fentanyl deaths went right through the roof while Trump was President. Over 100,000 dead - American carnage - thanks to Trump's incompetence at stopping the flood of fentanyl. So the idea that Trump will fix immigration policy is probably a delusion. But let's just be good Americans for a minute and say, "Hey, maybe he can." Maybe Trump will stop calling Harris a stupid bitch and instead focus on immigration policy. Republicans now have a very good reason why. They now know if you want to be President, better listen to those Latinos. I actually do believe that in itself is good for democracy. So let's put this is context. Trump is 1000 % certain to do dumb authoritarian and fascist shit. He can't help himself. He is older, and more unhinged. Biden's age problems may look like child's play compared to this unhinged narcissist felon three years from now. So I think the optimistic way to think about it is that if we are ONLY thinking about mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, and maybe we just throw in a million or so legally American Latino kids to deport for kicks, that's good for America. Because it actually could be a lot worse. Maybe he really tries to arrest and jail every Democrat in Congress. He really is THAT unhinged. So I'll just focus on deport all those criminals. He did say that last night I think. That may go down well. If he just does that, Democrats are not against getting rid of rapists and murderers, are we? Obama, aka "Deporter In Chief, did that. Best of luck to Trump fixing the fentanyl crisis, which absolutely blew up and killed over 100,000 Americans under Trump 1.0. Trump has never been accused of being good at policy, or governing. So Pew says 33 % of Hispanics are for increasing deportations, compared to 55 % of non-Hispanics. But that understates the massive difference between Republicans and Latinos. This poll says 79 of % of Republicans favor what Trump has proposed: rounding up the illegals - or their legally Americans kids, or whatever - and putting them in militarized camps. 22 % Democrats, and fewer than half of Independents favor this. And how many Hispanic Catholics favor this? 33 %. Hispanics are way closer to Democrats than Republicans on one of the centerpiece ideas of Trump 2.0. And that is BEFORE the separation of parents and children begins. My guess is Trump will go for some low hanging fruit, and shit can the mass deportation rhetoric now that he has won. But if he doesn't, he's going to send lots of Latinos running, literally, into the night. Since it's Trump, without the guard rails, it is probably going to be a cruel unhinged ugly mess. But one can hope. When Obama tried to do immigration reform, the Republican Party position, especially in the House, was "just say no" to compromise. All those Republicans in mostly White rural districts have constituents who are riled up. They want to round up the illegals and put 'em in camps. @EmmetK is already salivating, like Pavlov's dog. Or is it Trump's pit bull? If Trump proposes, let alone wins, a compromise immigration bill, I'll be shocked. He'll mostly focus on tax cuts for billionaires. Which is pretty much what every Latino Mom and Dad with some undocumented relative wants. So I think barely winning 50 % of the vote, thanks to young Latino men who like Joe Rogan or the "bro" vibe, is probably about as good as it gets.

Here's a weird thing, which is probably just overthinking. Because, in the end, none of this matters now. Trump won the people who decided in the last week of the election. If it was up to everyone who decided BEFORE the last week, meaning 93 % of the electorate, Harris would have won. The best month for Harris was September. Of the 7 % who say they decided in September, she won them 55/42. The reason I bring that up is that some people will say she spent too much time attacking Trump, and not enough talking about the economy. I just disagree. I'd argue the opposite. If she spent more time ripping Trump a new asshole, like she did during the debate, she might have barely eked out a victory. Claire McCaskill made an utterly sensible argument on Morning Joe the morning of the election. She said the people who decide at the last minute are "feel" voters. They are not really looking into, or even aware of, what Trump or Harris say about the economy. McCaskill arguably knows more about how to win in a red state than anyone else alive in America today. She said that Trump blew it, because he looked like a gloomy old nut compared to Harris's optimism and positive energy. Except Harris lost because of the people who broke for Trump in the last week, if the exit polls are right. Why? Trump won the last week vote 52/44. So McCaskill may be partly right. Maybe some voters, especially women, liked how Harris felt. Or maybe Trump's sexist ranting and crude dildo pumping was designed to appeal to the "bro" vote. Maybe it was designed to simply deter people from voting at all, by saying Harris is a stupid "b----". Maybe it was just Trump being the crude idiot he is. Who knows? I think we know this. Trump's base decided they were with Trump a long time ago. And they are not a majority. I keep coming back to Never Trump Republican Mike Murphy's "wall of lava". We will never know. But it makes sense to me that a lot of people who don't follow debates about tariffs or child tax credits, or have a clue what Trump did to shower tax cuts on billionaires in his failed first term, just thought Trump would somehow make things better for them after years of inflation and higher prices. As much as I am a fan of policies like child tax credits, precisely for this reason, I find it very hard to believe Harris could have changed the outcome if she had just focused more on policy in the last week. And all that excellent turnout work that happened in the swing states was just not enough. And, again, name leaders in the West - other than AMLO - who were NOT punished for inflation that happened on their watch? So I think the wise thing for Democrats is to think long and hard about a pro-working class policy. And use Trump's pro-billionaire policies to actually show we FIGHT for the working class. So we are hopefully never in this position again.