stevenkesslar

You always manage to think of something that trashes The Gays, and endorses the rapey, slimey, "just put your dick in the bitch and shut her the fuck up" gross underbelly of Trump and Trumpism. Why are you so cruel? Hey, at least you are not a war criminal, though.

Sadly, yes. I took it as an encouraging sign that there are still adults in the room. Or, more precisely, in the Republican caucus in the US Senate. Sen. Cornyn said it would be "Kavanaugh on steroids." Ya think? Thanks, Republicans, for sparing us of that.

And as of now Democrat Derek Tram is leading by 400 votes in CA-41, which would be a Democratic pickup. Incumbent Republican John Duarte is leading by 350 votes in the other uncalled race, CA-13. But his winning margin went from 3000 votes one day to 2000 votes the next day 350 votes yesterday. At least so far the trend with the final ballots being counted is they favor Democrats. There are an estimated 5000 votes left to count. The outcome in 2022 was 222 Republicans, 213 Democrats. At the time, the idea was that Democrats escaped a red wave. At the very least, even if Democrats lose both of these California races, we did no worse than in 2022. We might pick up a few seats. Some Republican landslide! It's still a very big defeat. But as it has sunk in, I hope that is good in the long run. Either Democrats have to embrace economic populism and the multi-ethnic working class, or they continue losing. It is not really a difficult choice. What I think we know for sure is that in 2026 and 2028 Democrats won't have a massive wall of lava coming at them, called inflation and higher costs.

BLAH BLAH BLAH I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT ALMOST HALF OF YOUNGER AMERICAN JEWS THINK I SUPPORT RACISM, APARTHEID, AND GENOCIDE. I WILL NOT READ THAT! MY MIND IS CLOSED IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT FOMER IDF HEAD AND PM BARAK SAYS BIBI THE BABY KILLER NEEDS TO CONTINUE THE WAR AND SLAUGHTER BECAUSE HE IS EMPOWEWRED BY RACIST ALLIES! I WILL NOT READ THAT. PALESTINIAN LIFE HAS NO VALUE. IT IS ANTi-SEMITIC TO WHINE ABOUT HOW BIBI THE BABY KILLER SLAUGHETERED TENS OF THOUSANDS OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN. THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT TO BE BELIEVED WHEN THEY COMPAIN ABOUT BEING KILLED. AND EVEN IF THEY WERE SLAUGHTERED, WE TRIED VERY HARD NOT TO KILL THEM. MY MIND IS CLOSED. I WILL NOT READ! ANYONE WHO DOES NOT SUPPORT BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS ANTI-SEMITIC. ICC issues arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over war crimes in Gaza BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN 120 COUNTRIES BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN UNITED KINGDOM BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN THE NETHERLANDS BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN BRAZIL BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN NIGERIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN FINLAND BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN AUSTRALIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN COSTA RICA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN KOREA ALL OVER THE WORLD, BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS A WAR CRIMINAL THE WHOLE WORLD IS ANTI-SEMITIC! HOW SMART TO HAVE A MURDEROUS LEADER THAT THE WHOLE WORLD SEES AS WAR CRIMINAL! I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! TRUMP2024 MAGA STARVE WOMEN AND CHILDREN KILL WOMEN AND CHILDREN ETHNIC CLEANSING FOR WOMEN AND CHILDREN

BLAH BLAH BLAH I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT ALMOST HALF OF YOUNGER AMERICAN JEWS THINK I SUPPORT RACISM, APARTHEID, AND GENOCIDE. I WILL NOT READ THAT! MY MIND IS CLOSED IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT FOMER IDF HEAD AND PM BARAK SAYS BIBI THE BABY KILLER NEEDS TO CONTINUE THE WAR AND SLAUGHTER BECAUSE HE IS EMPOWEWRED BY RACIST ALLIES! I WILL NOT READ THAT. PALESTINIAN LIFE HAS NO VALUE. IT IS ANTi-SEMITIC TO WHINE ABOUT HOW BIBI THE BABY KILLER SLAUGHETERED TENS OF THOUSANDS OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN. THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT TO BE BELIEVED WHEN THEY COMPAIN ABOUT BEING KILLED. AND EVEN IF THEY WERE SLAUGHTERED, WE TRIED VERY HARD NOT TO KILL THEM. MY MIND IS CLOSED. I WILL NOT READ! ANYONE WHO DOES NOT SUPPORT BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS ANTI-SEMITIC. ICC issues arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over war crimes in Gaza BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN 120 COUNTRIES BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN UNITED KINGDOM BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN THE NETHERLANDS BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN BRAZIL BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN NIGERIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN FINLAND BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN AUSTRALIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN COSTA RICA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN KOREA ALL OVER THE WORLD, BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS A WAR CRIMINAL THE WHOLE WORLD IS ANTI-SEMITIC! HOW SMART TO HAVE A MURDEROUS LEADER THAT THE WHOLE WORLD SEES AS WAR CRIMINAL! I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! TRUMP2024 MAGA STARVE WOMEN AND CHILDREN KILL WOMEN AND CHILDREN ETHNIC CLEANSING FOR WOMEN AND CHILDREN

BLAH BLAH BLAH I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT ALMOST HALF OF YOUNGER AMERICAN JEWS THINK I SUPPORT RACISM, APARTHEID, AND GENOCIDE. I WILL NOT READ THAT! MY MIND IS CLOSED IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT FOMER IDF HEAD AND PM BARAK SAYS BIBI THE BABY KILLER NEEDS TO CONTINUE THE WAR AND SLAUGHTER BECAUSE HE IS EMPOWEWRED BY RACIST ALLIES! I WILL NOT READ THAT. PALESTINIAN LIFE HAS NO VALUE. IT IS ANTi-SEMITIC TO WHINE ABOUT HOW BIBI THE BABY KILLER SLAUGHETERED TENS OF THOUSANDS OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN. THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT TO BE BELIEVED WHEN THEY COMPAIN ABOUT BEING KILLED. AND EVEN IF THEY WERE SLAUGHTERED, WE TRIED VERY HARD NOT TO KILL THEM. MY MIND IS CLOSED. I WILL NOT READ! ANYONE WHO DOES NOT SUPPORT BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS ANTI-SEMITIC. ICC issues arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over war crimes in Gaza BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN 120 COUNTRIES BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN UNITED KINGDOM BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN THE NETHERLANDS BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN BRAZIL BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN NIGERIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN FINLAND BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN AUSTRALIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN COSTA RICA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN KOREA ALL OVER THE WORLD, BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS A WAR CRIMINAL THE WHOLE WORLD IS ANTI-SEMITIC! HOW SMART TO HAVE A MURDEROUS LEADER THAT THE WHOLE WORLD SEES AS WAR CRIMINAL! I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! TRUMP2024 MAGA STARVE WOMEN AND CHILDREN KILL WOMEN AND CHILDREN ETHNIC CLEANSING FOR WOMEN AND CHILDREN

Rand Paul breaks with Trump on using military for mass deportations: ‘Huge mistake’ GLOBALLY BELOVED CLOWN EMMA CRUELTY DECRIES MARXIST EXTREMIST FOR DEFYING MANDATE TO ROUND UP THE VERMIN FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: 202-IAM-BOZO Today universally beloved clown Emma Cruelty denounced "vermin lover" Rand Paul for defying the biggest mandate in human civilization. "After having the 2020 election stolen from him, President Trump fought back and won the biggest mandate since God gave Israel to the Jews," Emma Cruelty said. "America voted overwhelmingly to round up the vermin and get rid of it. Immediately." The pro-cruelty clown dismisses Paul's statement that Trump's plan to have armed soldiers round up housekeepers, farm workers, construction workers, and children to bring to armed camps is extreme. "These are extremists who want to protect vermin and defy Trump's overwhelming mandate. No one in this great country has ever won by 49.9 % of the vote," the clown said. "Even George W. Bush, the last Republican President who used his mandate to do really unpopular shit and lose, could only win 50.7 % of the popular vote. Trump left that loser in the dust," Emma Cruelty stated. The Cruelest Clown Ever also called out "MAGA fucker" Rand Paul for extremist and Communist ideas like "compromise" and "moderation." "This is treason, pure and simple. And we need purity right now. Pure American blood," stressed Clown Cruelty. "Paul is sticking up for vermin. He should be thrown in the camp as well." Emma Clown also warned patriots. "Don't be fooled by so-called "polls" by un-American so-called "news" organizations, like Fox News," the most beloved clown in all human history warned. "These people hate President Trump, and hate losing," Cruelty said. "He could win 99.9 % of the vote, like he did in 2020. And they would still cheat, and say he doesn't have a mandate to sweep up the vermin and get rid of it. We should deport these extremist Americans, too. Let's send them to Gaza, where justice will soon be unleashed!" Emma Cruelty also stated that she will not comment on the rumor that President Trump will nominate the globally revered clown for Attorney General if Rep. Matt Gaetz's nomination fails. "Frankly, no one is a bigger clown than Matt Gaetz," she said. "Plus, he plays well with children." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Note: Emma Cruelty is a fictional character. Any resemblance to asshole blowhards on any website is purely coincidental.)

You still refuse to say whether you think half of younger American Jews are "anti-Semitic" or Jew haters. About half of younger (under 40) American Jews say your positions are racist, and/or pro-apartheid, and/or committing genocide. Are half of younger American Jews "Jew haters"? Are they correct that you are a pro-Genocide Jew? TRUMP2024 MAGA NO! NO! NO! I WILL NOT READ FACTS! UNLEASH BIBI THE BABY KILLER JEW HATER! IF YOU DON'T SUPPORT GENOCIDE AND RACISM YOU HATE JEWS.

Trump lost the majority of the vote. Right now he is at 49.9 %. And it is going down. His mandate? In the new Harris poll 68 % of Americans say their top priority is they want him to "end inflation and price increases. Inflation had pretty much ended. Even conservative economists agree his tariffs plan will RAISE prices on the working class. Most Democrats and half of Independents say their worst fear is "Trump behaving like a dictator". 53 % of all voters and 55 % of Independents still want to see Trump tried on criminal charges. Trump does not have a mandate for lawlessness and dictatorial behavior. But he doesn't care. Just ask Matt Gaetz TRUMP2024 MAGA NO! NO! NO! I WILL NOT READ FACTS NO! NO! NO! TRUMP HAS A MANDATE FOR CRUELTY NO! NO! NO! TRUMP HAS A MANDATE FOR LAWLESSNESS

There is another answer, to give the devil his due - so to speak. Policy. Poll after poll reveals that they like Trump's conservative policies. They would love a national abortion ban. When asked whether they are voting for the person, or the policies, they usually answer the policies. If we are talking evangelicals, these are also the people who would like to repeal same sex marriage, if they can. They are happy to make a deal with the devil, so to speak. We could care less about Trump's crimes and infidelities. We just want our conservative policies. And judges. And they got them.

Sweetie. That was 2016. Get with the times. Trump has moved on from scapegoating Muslims. Now he is scapegoating The Illegals and some of the The Gays. And the proper word for them is "vermin".

Thanks for your expert advice. People all over the world look to Russia for advice on how to make democracy genocide work. Your point is both 100 % right, and 100 % wrong. Here's where you are 100 % wrong. This election was a referendum first and foremost on inflation and immigration, as it turned out. The polls of actual voters were incredibly clear about that. Had there been zero inflation after COVID, Harris would have won. Biden would have won if he did not drop out, probably. I've read at least a dozen conservative pieces saying the Democrats "blew it" because of inflation. Not one of them is realistic, or even vaguely logical, about how the world was supposed to stop either COVID, or the inflation that followed. One reasonable estimate I read is that Biden's liberal, and popular, pro-working class legislation - like stimulus checks and child tax credits - added something like 0.3 % to the inflation rate experienced in the US and all over the world, anyway. So in practical terms it works out this way for a Latino working class family. Their grocery bill is $300 more a month, due to inflation. And maybe $15 of that is the stimulus effect of Biden's working class programs. You get a $300 a month child tax credit to offset it. If that's the deal, the Latino working class family is way better off having 9 % inflation, rather than 8.7 % inflation, and a $300 tax credit. Even when inflation goes away, as it has, the child tax credit stays. That was the plan. The problem is Democrats did not have the votes. The expanded tax credits died after one year of cutting child poverty in half. And lots of other things - like child care promises - did not get close to being met. Again, Democrats did not have the votes. There is a word for this: democracy. I can personally relate, since all my tenants - nine in total - are working class families, almost all with kids or grandkids. And they are about half White families and half Black or Brown families. The expanded child tax credits helped them. Not a lot, but a little. When they went away, after one year, it made their lives a little harder. If Joe Biden was fighting like hell for them, they did not get the memo. In Genocide World, the solution is simple. Genocide Man can kill his opponents, send them to jail, or send them to be processed into meat in Ukraine. Even in Genocide World Putin has to spend the nation's wealth paying off poor families to send their men to be processed into meat. We don't do that here. The child tax credits paid poor children to not be poor, basically. Which leads us to the flip side, where you are 100 % right. Many Democrats wanted to ignore Democrats like Ruy Teixeira, saying you need to focus on the moderate, patriotic and diverse working class. Now they no longer can. Our coalition problems with the working class are now obvious. So Democrats will need to figure that out. More than anything, what Latino men - and all men and women - want to do is work hard and get ahead. That said, ideas like Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare, Medicaid, child tax credits, and government help for schools and child care are wildly popular. As are tax increases on billionaires to pay for it. So either Democrats fight like hell to win working class votes, or they don't. A lot of my more affluent Gay friends don't care about most of these pocketbook issues, except for Social Security. So they will have to decide whether they want to be part of a coalition that absolutely needs Latino working class men, who are mostly quite tolerant of LGBTQ rights. Or whether we would rather have them vote for Trump. This should not be hard. First, inflation will not be the issue in 2026 or 2028. Hopefully. Maybe it will be, if Trump tries the crazier versions of his tariffs. Which will punish the working class he says he wants to help. Unless Trump gets more graceful rather than more senile as he ages, the issue in 2026 and 2028 will be Trump. And he has basically promised tax cuts for billionaires. Oh, and maybe he won't tax tips. As this plays out, I am more and more pleased that Trump won a narrow trifecta and will barely have the votes to get what he wants. That way, whatever happens is on him. Maybe peace will break out in Israel. Maybe Trump will decide child tax credits and child care for working class Latino parents trumps tax cuts for his billionaire donors. And himself. And Elon Musk. But probably not. He'll unleash tax cuts for billionaires, and Bibi The Baby Killer's genocide, more likely. We'll see. I hope I am wrong again.

Do you have any proof of that? All the proof suggests the exact opposite. I post a lot of facts, because I care about facts. So here is one. Republicans have been comparing Joe Biden to Jimmy Carter for years. And they have a point. Carter had a 37 % approval rating when he lost in a massive landslide in 1980. Democrats lost 12 Senate seats and 34 House seats. That landslide defined a political generation, and also led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Peace through strength. Joe Biden's party just lost in a close race. Democrats lost no House seats. We may still gain one. We lost no Governor races. We won four Senate seats in states Trump just won, narrowly. Which breaks the pattern that Democrats can't win in states that vote for Trump. So, yes, it was a bitter defeat for Harris. People, including me, are feeling the pain. But the idea that it was a landslide is ridiculous. Carter's losing margin was 9.7 %. Harris lost (so far) by 1.7 %. If Trump's win is a landslide, then Joe Biden's win in 2020, when he won by 7 million votes, was the biggest landslide in human history. Instead, the lying and anti-democratic core of MAGA is still saying the 2020 election was stolen. They are deeply unprincipled. I have a niece who feels this way, who I love going to nice places with. She is wrong, and unprincipled. But I still love her. All the polls taken of voters - CNN, Fox/Votecast, Edison - show that people very concerned with US democracy and Trump's authoritarianism voted overwhelmingly for Harris. There was another group - about 10 % of voters - who said democracy and authoritarianism were big concerns, but the economy was a bigger concern. They leaned to Trump, hoping he will "fix" the economy. Whether it makes sense that tax cuts for billionaire Trump donors will "fix" the economy is irrelevant. They voted based on the economy, stupid. That group, which we know has lots of Latinos and/or younger voters, handed Trump his narrow win. Was it a realignment? Give me a fucking break! It was one election. This is also clear in a brand new Harris poll by Mark Penn, taken after the election. (Penn, by the way, was exactly right in his polling: it was a close election that Trump won.) 68 % of voters say their greatest hope for Trump 2.0 is "end inflation and price increases." That is why he won. When asked to name their top fear of Trump 2.0, 78% of Democrats and 49 % of Independents fear "Trump acting like a dictator." Trump won the Independent vote. So that means many Independents had to vote for him based on the economy, stupid. Despite their fear of his dictatorial tendencies. 53 % of all voters and 55 % of Independents say Trump's criminal trials should continue. They won't, of course. But there was no mandate for lawlessness and dictatorship in this election. There is a mandate to make things more affordable. So it's impossible to prove that all the campaigning about democracy and dictatorship moved the dial with 100 % certainty. But there is already a Mount Everest of facts suggesting it did. We now know polls taken right before Biden dropped out suggested he was so unpopular he would lose in a landslide, with Trump getting 400+ electoral votes. That is not quite as horrific as what happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980, who also had high inflation and a very low approval rating. Democrats were on track to a brutal shellacking that never happened. I think it was because Harris did a good job making the case against Trump. The fact that the argument against Trump did not work quite enough is not the same as saying it did not work at all. There is unlimited data coming in that lots of people voted for Trump despite their fears of what he will do. And he still could not get a majority. He is now at 49.9 % of the vote. Again, I know this thread is about @EmmetKruelty. He is a symbol for the hate, the cruelty, and the over reach of Trump. He wants to be as cruel as possible to Palestinians, to The Illegals, to The Gays who are transgender, and to anyone else that he wishes to be close-minded and cruel to. He could give a flying fuck that the polls say this is NOT what Americans voted for. And it is not what they want. He is happily ignorant. He says this clearly. "NO! NO! NO! I WILL NOT READ A THING! JEW HATER!" He is happily and gloriously spewing division and cruelty.

Yeah. Kind of like how Genocide Man is paying Ukraine back. And showing how Putin loves Ukrainian women and children. But speaking of genocidal monsters, let's talk about Bibi The Baby Killer. It's the best window into the soul of our pro-genocide Jew @EmmetKruelty. @EmmetKruelty openly and proudly says he does not care about facts about Israel's genocide. He will not read facts about Israel's genocide. And he could give a flying fuck what young American Jews think. He wants Bibi The Baby Killer unleashed. He says this openly, and proudly. If Palestinians don't like the slaughter of their women and children, who cares? They're Palestinians! We try very hard not to kill people who have no right to object to us killing them. And if Jews don't like Bibi's mass slaughter, that is anti-Semitic Jew-hating propaganda. Anything that does not support Bibi The Baby Killer unleashing his genocide is Jew-hating propaganda. Anyone who does not support Bibi The Baby Killer unleashing genocide is a Jew hater. Sure makes Judaism sound like a great religion, doesn't it? It's Roy Cohn. It's Goebbels. It's Putin. Surely, coming from Genocide World, these all must sound like familiar arguments. Anyway, this is what somebody @EmmetKruelty must think of us a total Jew hater thinks This dude actually calls Bibi The Baby Killer and his extremist supporters "racist". Ugh! How anti-Semitic is that? So who is this anti-Semitic and Jew hating asshole, who @EmmetKruelty in all his close-minded lust for genocide could give a flying fuck about? Ehud Barak, former Israeli Prime Minister, Chief of Staff of the IDF, and Defense Minister. Jew hater! Anti-Semite! The makings of a grand Trump deal in the Middle East Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak says it’s possible the new U.S. administration may enter into interconnected talks with Putin about Ukraine, Iran and the Middle East. Since this thread is about @EmmetKruelty, I will only say things about that article that help shine a light into @EmmetKruelty's dark, cruel heart. First, Barak is a man of peace. He and Clinton came close to delivering peace decades ago. I will always blame Arafat for rejecting that peace deal, which would have left Palestinians immensely better off than they are today. That said, rejecting peace is not the same as asking Israel to elect a genocidal monster, and keep him in power. Second, if what that article lays out is even possible, it is certainly worth a try. The Russian Federation will eventually collapse of its own rot and weakness and corruption, anyway. Just like the Soviet Union, which was a far stronger and better nation than Genocide World. I am a pragmatic whore. If we could call a truce and stop the slaughter in two parts of the world, most pragmatic and humane people would like that. Third, there is always this view of Trump that he is going to be the opposite of what he always is. It's true that Trump and Jared Kushner are always happy to enrich themselves by getting into bed with rich and autocratic Arab leaders. No questions asked. Putin of course asks no questions, either. And Bibi The Baby Killer and Trump share pollsters, and rich right wing Jewish donors. But the idea that Trump can force Bibi The Baby Killer to make peace with the targets of his genocide is kind of ridiculous. I have deep admiration for Ehud Barak. But this sounds let desperate people saying desperate things. I sure hope I am wrong, like I was about Harris winning the election. The main reason I don't think I am wrong, as the article notes, is Bibi The Baby Killer is absolutely committed to his genocide. And for political reasons he has to be. That is why his racist team of haters keeps him in power. It's a bit like Genocide Man, although there is no democracy in Russia. How could Putin run Genocide World if he were not Genocide Man? Indeed. Where does @EmmetKruelty fit into this mess? Duh! BRING ON GENOCIDE! UNLEASH BIBI THE BABY KILLER! FACTS DO NOT MATTER! ANYONE WHO OPPOSES BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS A JEW HATER! EVEN JEWS! EVEN THE FORMER HEAD OF THE IDF! It's deeply sick, cruel, and genocidal. But coming from Genocide World, surely you can understand, @Moses.

So here's my inner data geek at work. One of the best criticisms against Lichtman for a long time has been that you could do just as well predicting who will win the Presidency by simply looking at the horse race polls. That's kind of true. But only if we are talking about the final horse race poll average right before the election. There were cycles - Obama in 2008, Reagan in 1984 - where we knew they were going to win a week before people voted. The problem with this approach is we also knew Clinton was going to win a week before the election in 2016. Except Lichtman predicted Trump would win in September 2016. My one line on Lichtman moving forward is that he got one key badly wrong: the short term economy. And I don't blame him, since the entire Democratic Party got that wrong. We mostly all thought that Kamala Harris could outrun the "wall of lava" which was spewed out by the economy, stupid. Turns out we were mostly all wrong. Or were we? Another truism about polling that is stated a lot is that no President, or incumbent party, has ever been re-elected with approval ratings like Joe Biden had in the year of the election. That's absolutely true, as I will show below. We kind of lost track of that when Biden stepped aside. Turns out that that there is a simple rule you can use to predict who will win. In 16 out of 16 cases, the incumbent party won when the incumbent President's approval rating was 50 % or higher, and lost when the incumbent party's approval rating was under 50 %. But in a total of 19 races, there are three exceptions. And all 3 of 3 cases involved a very specific situation: when the person running on the incumbent party ticket is not the sitting President, and is going for a third incumbent term (Nixon in 1960, Gore in 2000, Clinton in 2020). Biden’s polling said Trump would win at least 400 electoral votes before president quit the race, Obama’s aide claims Harris actually did way better than the historical math would suggest, based on Biden's 39 % approval rating. I have no idea what Team Biden knew right before he stepped aside. But what lots of Republicans and Democrats were saying at that moment sounded like the headline above. There was a belief on both sides that Trump could win in a Reaganesque landslide. Instead, as of now we lost ZERO House seats, and narrowly held on to 4 of 5 Senate seats in swing states that voted narrowly for Trump. I think one reasonable take away is that the "wall of lava" was mostly aimed at one person: Kamala Harris. She was running on behalf of Biden, and made a point of not even trying to distance herself from him. It now seems obvious she was going to be the one held accountable. As Ron Brownstein argued, there has never been an example where an unpopular President was able to keep his party in power by not running again. There are now several examples where it was tried, and almost worked. Harris and Humphrey both came close. Here are every President since Truman, ranked by their approval rating when the election was held, followed by the margin of victory or defeat of the incumbent party candidate. There are 19 races, and the three exceptions to the rule are in boldface. 75 % approval - LBJ in 1964 - Incumbent party (LBJ) wins by 32.5 % 69 % approval - Ike in 1956 - Incumbent party (Ike) wins by 15.4 % 62 % approval - Ike in 1960 - Incumbent party (Nixon) loses by - 0.2 % 61 % approval - Nixon in 1972 - Incumbent party (Nixon) wins by 23.2 % 60 % approval - Reagan in 1984 - Incumbent party (Reagan) wins by 18.2 % 60 % approval - Clinton in 2000 - Incumbent party (Gore) wins by 0.5 % but loses electoral college. 59 % approval - Clinton in 1996 - Incumbent party (Clinton) wins by 8.5 % 55 % approval - Reagan in 1988 - Incumbent party (Bush 41) wins by 7.8 % 54 % approval - Obama in 2012 - Incumbent party (Obama) wins by3.9 % 52 % approval - Obama in 2016 - Incumbent party (Clinton) wins by 2.2 % but loses electoral college. 50 % approval - W. in 2004 - Incumbent party (W) wins by 2.4 % 44 % approval - Ford in 1876 - Incumbent party (Ford) loses by - 1.9 % 42 % approval - LBJ in 1968 - Incumbent party (Humphrey) loses by -0.7 % 42 % approval - Trump in 2020 - Incumbent party (Trump) loses by -4.8 % 41 % approval - Bush 41 in 1992 - Incumbent party (Bush 41) loses by - 5.6 % 39 % approval - Biden in 2024 - Incumbent party (Harris) loses by -1.7 % 37 % approval - Carter in 1980 - Incumbent party (Carter) loses by -9.7 % 30 % approval - Truman in 1952 - Incumbent party (Stevenson) loses by -10.9 % 26 % approval - W. in 2008 - Incumbent party (McCain) loses by -7.2 % That is a remarkably clean list. In 16 out of 19 races, you could predict the winner of the election based on whether the incumbent President had an approval rating of 50 % or higher. In 18 out of 19 races, you could predict the winner of the popular vote based on the incumbent's approval rating. The only exception - Nixon in 1960 - was 0.2 % away from winning the popular vote. This is an example of why I still think Lichtman's Keys make lots of sense. What these three exceptions strongly suggest is that, most of the time, incumbency helps. The incumbent party probably would have won in all three exceptions if Ike, Bill Clinton, and Obama could have run for a third term. And that is how Lichtman's keys work. He doesn't argue one variable is right all the time. He argues that if you take these 13 variables and blend them, they give you the right answer even if one variable is off. Again, I think the variable that was way off in 2024 was the short-term economy. That is what did Harris in. Period. This way of looking at it strongly suggests that Democrats helped themselves in 1968 and 2024 by getting an unpopular incumbent out of the way. Had Biden resigned earlier, like LBJ did, and Harris had more time to win a primary and stage a campaign, things might have worked better. We'll never know. But we do know for a fact that Biden in 2024 was close to being as unpopular as Carter was in 1980. In 1980, Reagan won 489 electoral votes, 12 Senate seats, 34 House seats, and 4 Governor seats. If this were 1980, we would have lost every Democrat that won in a swing state. Plus perhaps a few other "shockers" as well. Like Tim Kaine in Virginia, or Martin Heinrich in New Mexico. Given how unpopular Biden was, mostly due to inflation and immigration, Harris did no worse than we should have expected, and arguably way better. Republicans are having fun trashing the $1 billion boondoggle. As one of an army of small grassroots donors, I'm proud of the fact that we held the line. Zero losses in the House and Governor races. Those Governor seats will be the foundation of the resistance to the craziest things Trump will try to. It sucks that we lost 4 Senate seats. But 4 losses are better than 12. And given that Democrats are going to be uncompetitive in red states until we fix our White working class problem, we now should simply understand that states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are out of reach for the time being.

Death 43,000. Let's keep track of Bibi The Baby Killer's death count as well, and see what the woman and child death toll looks like 100 or 409 days from now. You are literally salivating in your pit bull, Roy Cohn heart. Bibi The Baby Killer is going to be unshackled! It's just fucking awesome! This Palestinian terrorist deserved to die. And Bibi The Baby Killer tried very hard not to kill her before he planned to kill her. Terrorist! Why are you for genocide? Why are you for explaining away the death of Palestinian children? Why do you look forward to killing children?

Why are you denying that about half of American Jews believe you support racism, and/or apartheid, and or genocide? Why do you explain away your support for genocide by arguing that the only Palestinian voices around are extremists or terrorists? So therefore we really don't have to worry about Palestinians. Palestinians inherently disqualify themselves, both from having a voice and having a life, because they are Palestinian. You really don't care that this ideology of genocide is exactly what Goebbels said. The voices and lives of Jews don't matter, precisely because they are Jews. You are spouting Goebbels quality hatred. And you really could give a shit. Why are you so cruel?

The multi-ethnic, multi-racial House Republican leadership met today. Their #1 priority is shocking. Wait for it .........................................................continuing the Trump tax cuts for BILLIONAIRES! How does this build the Republican's multi-ethnic, multi-racial coalition? Where is the poll saying Latino men and women voted for MORE TRUMP TAX CUTS FOR BILLIONAIRES! ALL ABOOOOOOOOoOOARD! TRUMP2024 MAGA TAX CUTS FOR (OVERWHELMINGLY WHITE) BILLIONAIRES CUT SOCIAL PROGRAMS THAT HELP LATINO MEN CUT SOCIAL PROGRAMS THAT HELP LATINO WOMEN CUT SOCIAL AND HEALTH PROGRAM THAT HELP BLACK MEN CUT SOCIAL AND HEALTH PROGRAMS THAT HELP BLACK WOMEN THIS IS WHO AMERICA IS! JUMP ON BOARD! MAKE BILLIIONARES RICH AGAIN! The Trump landslide keeps getting bigger! He's now gone from 50.0 % of the vote, to 49.9 %, and 1.7 % more than Harris got. Sooner it will be even bigger: like a 1.5 % margin. That is a massive landslide. Far bigger than the Obama landslide in 2008, or the Reagan landslides in 1984 or 1980, or the Nixon landslide in 1972. Everyone in America is screaming, "Free Elon Musk! Let him speak! Cut his taxes" Join this landslide victory now, before YOU are crushed.

Because I am selfish, and I am learning new things. I'll take the issue at hand. I've been familiar with the fact that polls show most Palestinians and a significant majority of Israeli Jews believe Israel is an apartheid state for a long time. But I had never bothered to research what American Jews say about these issues before. It turns out most American Jews are actually like the American Jews I know, and have known. Liberals, basically. They voted for Harris. They hold Bibi The Baby Killer in contempt. And they recognize that what Bibi is doing is undermining the long-term legitimacy of Israel. I'd actually argue that the American Jews who are full on "go Bibi, go" and "kill, Bibi, kill" are anti-Israel. That's just a fact. The Democratic Party for my whole life has essentially been pro-Israel. If I go back to 2000 or so I was saying I want Arafat to burn in hell forever. Because he turned down the best deal for peace Israel was ever going to get, offered thanks to Clinton and Israeli Labor's last Prime Minister. So I have now updated myself to the 2024 view of Israel, and how American Jews feel about it. Young American Jews look at Israel and often see racism, apartheid, and genocide. And that's Jews speaking. When you get to non-Jews, it gets far worse. It helped cost Harris the state of Michigan. And it just gets much worse now. The nice thing in a way is that now that Trump will unshackle Bibi The Baby Killer, opposition to Bibi The Baby Killer does not get confused with opposition to Harris or Biden anymore. They are gone, thanks in part to Bibi The Baby Killer. It's a tragedy, both for Jews and Palestinians, I think. And it is about to get much, much worse. And @EmmetKruelty loves the genocide. He can't wait for Bibi The Killer to be unleashed. Kill, Bibi, kill. I could give a shit what @EmmetKruelty says, or does. He's sick and cruel. Because he loves expressing his cruelest thoughts online. So he's a cruel loser. Trump won a very important election. Now @EmmetKruelty wants as much cruelty and genocide as possible. He's our very own Roy Cohn. A Gay and Jew who looks down on Gays and Jews, and will throw them under the bus in a heartbeat. I can live with that. I assume he can, too. What matters to me is I did what I could, and sent money to a lot of Democrats who lost, starting with Harris and ending with Will Rollins. That's what mattered. Not anything said here. I'm proud of the fact that I sent money to losers. I guess I could say maybe I would feel better if I sent the money to Gallego and Slotkin, rather than Tester and Brown and Rollins. But I intentionally targeted the people I thought needed the money the most. Since the first two barely won, and the latter three I sent money to lost, I think my decisions were sound. I thought about going door knocking for Rollins, who is right next door to my district. Right or wrong, I decided this was going to be a wave election. Either Harris would win in a wave, which is what I incorrectly thought was likely. Or she would lose in a wave, which she did. Rollins lost by enough that I don't think any number of volunteers would have helped. That said, it was not a big wave. And it was mostly aimed at Harris, standing in for Biden. I think Never Trump Republican Mike Murphy's idea of a "wall of lava" coming at her - inflation and higher costs - was exactly right. But there is massive evidence that the Democratic ground game in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada - and almost Pennsylvania - put four Democratic Senators over the top. In the long run, that's what matters. If there is anyone who set the model for how a Democrat runs and wins with the support of the Latino working class, it is Ruben Gallego. By sending more money to Harris than anyone else, I helped fund the ground game in all those swing states. I'm proud of that. I'm proud of what Harris did. If she runs for Guv, I look forward to voting for her. To sum up, this forum has nothing to do with the real world. I view it as a place where I can write shit and learn things. If anyone else learns something, great. If it's boring as shit, great. Don't read it. I assume few if any people do. I'm fine with that. Mostly, what people like to do here is post JPGs about the smelly shitty Trump train, or some funny joke about the stupid shit Trump said today. Great! @EmmetKruelty mostly likes to vent his cruelty and extreme views. Great! So I don't feel like I am lowering the standards by trying to learn some new things and be thoughtful.

Of course not. You completely dismiss what younger American Jews say. Let alone Palestinians. Duh! The very fact that they are Palestinian disqualifies them from expressing concerns about the mass slaughter of their women and children. No, there is absolutely nothing genocidal about that. You could give a flying fuck what younger American Jews think. You are close-minded, and clearly expressing your close-minded pro-Genocide views right now. You have no interest whatsoever in what half of younger American Jews think. You just want to cling to your close-minded belief in genocide. And attack anyone who does not support your opinion as "Jew-hating". Including about half of younger American Jews. Why do you think half of younger American Jews are "Jew-hating"? Because I think you are wrong. I think they are deeply offended when they hear your guy, Trump, call people VERMIN. Because they are 1000 % clear about who said that word in the 20th Century, and what it meant for Jews. But instead of being honest and just saying, "Yes. I am for genocide against Palestinians," you do a very poor and cheap impersonation of Roy Cohn. Turn my words around and accuse me of being anti-Semitic when I'm attacking anti-Semitic language. It fits. You've always been the cheap, close-minded clown anyway. Why do you attack about half of younger American Jews who express these views? It's all right here. A nice 39 page analysis of American Jewish opinion by the Jewish Electoral Institute. Which you, a pro-Genocide Jew, can't be bothered reading. You are close minded and hateful. You do not want your support for genocide challenged by anyone. Why are you so cruel? Why don't you speak out against Trump calling people VERMIN? When he said it, he was not attacking the use of the word. He was using the word to say PEOPLE are VERMIN. Why do you support Trump using what is arguably the most anti-Semitic word in history against people? NO! NO! NO! I WILL NOT READ FACTS! I WANT TO BE CLOSE MINDED! WHEN BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS UNSHACKLED AND KILLS MANY MORE PALESTIANIAN WOMEN AND CHILDREN, IT IS ALWAYS THE RIGHT THING TO DO. I AM ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED TO BEING A PRO-GENOCIDE JEW!

What's that based on? According to close to half of younger American Jews, you, my pro-Genocide Jew, are supporting policies of Israel that are RACIST an/or APARTHEID and/or GENOCIDE. This is not my opinion, my dear pro-Genocide Jew. This is what American Jews are saying, through the work of the Jewish Electoral Institute. Are they "Jew-hating" when they say YOU support genocide? Do you think almost half of younger American Jews are "Jew-hating" or anti-Semitic? What is your definition of "Jew-hating"? Someone who does not want to see Bibi The Baby Killer up his game and slaughter hundreds of thousands of Palestinian women and children, with Trump and Huckabee being silently complicit? You clearly and repeatedly express pro-Genocide views every time you open your mouth here about Palestinians. Any concern about the tens of thousands women and children killed by Bibi The Baby Killer doesn't count because it is stated by Palestinians (and the UN, and many nations and agencies). The way you personally try hard not to kill Palestinian women and children is to dismiss anything anyone says about them. Including up to half of younger American Jews. You can kill as many Palestinian women and children as you want, in your view. Because they are Palestinian. And if Bibi The Baby Killer killed them, it obviously needed to be done. That's genocide, according to over 1 in 3 younger American Jews. Others call it racism, or apartheid. Which do you think it is? Or do you think up to half of younger American Jews are "Jew-hating"? Anti-Semitic? What are they when they decry your genocidal fever dreams?

Sorry that Secretary Pete has to go. But at least he will replaced by someone who actually seems to stand for something bigger than having sex with children, drugs, and rolling over the Department of Justice. I'm all for Republicans touting family values, including LGBTQ families like Secretary Pete's. It's not a good look when they turn out to be sex traffickers who vote against child tax credits to help working class families. Trump taps former lawmaker and reality TV star for Transportation Duffy has nine chjildren. He ended his Congressional career after four terms because his wife had a difficult pregnancy, with a fetus the doctors could tell had a hole in its heart that would need surgery right after birth. The child, a girl who was born with Downs Syndrome, is fine now. When he gave up his seat Duffy said he loves politics, but he loves his family more. It makes sense to pick a respected House Republican, since so many of the infrastructure projects involve politics in red states and red districts. Hopefully this signals we don't have to have infrastructure wars and CHIPS repeal wars like the Trump 1.0 "kill Obamacare" wars. This is the kind of conservative Republican Administration that would deserve, and easily earn, respect. Not the child sex guy.

Well, you got those two right. 😉 And there is no doubt that Hegseth will drive us back to looking at Gays in the military as suspect. He probably can't bring back Don't Ask Don't Tell. But he'll make women and The Gays feel less welcome. Trump’s Pick For Defense Sec Spent His College Years Crusading Against ‘Glorification of Diversity’ And ‘The Homosexual Lifestyle’ Why do you keep praising people who trash The Gays, @EmmetKruelty? I hope Democrats drop the stuff about his sexual harassment deal, at least as a reason not to confirm him. Unless the woman steps forward and asks to be heard. Right wing Bozo Mollie Hemingway is making an interesting argument about Gaetz. She is saying no one accusing him can be trusted. One is Joel Greenberg, the politician/pimp who was sent off to jail. And is completely untrustworthy, Hemingway says. The other is the woman Greenberg pimped out to Gaetz, allegedly. And she is essentially a "prostitute". Egads! It's not a bad argument. But if Greenberg is a slimebag who is untrustworthy, what does that make his close friend Matt Gaetz? One Florida state legislator described what they both stand for this way: In the case of Gaetz, there is a woman who says Gaetz had sex with her as a child. She has told he story to the ethics committee. She deserves a hearing. I think it is worth talking about why people who voted for Trump to get lower prices are instead going to get lower standards. Including trying to ram through a sex trafficking sleazeball to be the Attorney General. By comparsion, Hegseth seems like a Boy Scout. Or at least he looks like one on TV. Which is obviously what Trump cares about. What I'd like to find out is why a guy who was found unqualified for much lower positions in the Department of Defense by Trump 1.0 in 2016 is now ready to run the massive department? Is that what a stint at Fox News prepares you for? What I learned after helping vet Pete Hegseth for the RNC in 2016 What a shocker!

Thanks for posting that video. It should be clear I read and watch a lot of right-wing media. I am a political junkie, so I at least want to hear what the other side is saying. Cenk is of course left-wing. But he is one person I rarely listen to. I did listen to his debate with Lichtman, in which Lichtman creamed him. So of course Cenk is the kind of guy who wants to gloat, just like @EmmetKruelty does. But even now, he is just dead wrong. He can't trash The Keys without understanding what they say. Even now, Cenk fails to grasp the most basic facts. Cenk's point is that Lichtman was wrong in 2024 because incumbency didn't help Harris. Apparently, Cenk is unaware that Lichtman took the incumbency key away from Harris precisely because she is not the incumbent. So Cenk's argument is misinformed. Lichtman turned the incumbency against Harris. So it could not be a reason Lichtman was wrong in saying she would win. Like he so often is, Cenk is just spreading misinformation, without intending to. He never does his homework. It would be interesting to hear which other keys Cenk things Lichtman should have turned against Harris. But instead Cenk just wants to gloat. I'll admit that I took Lichtman and Selzer seriously. Was I wrong to? I actually don't think I was. They are widely respected experts. Everyone took Selzer seriously this time. And in 2020. And in 2016. Everyone took Lichtman seriously in 2016, when he said Trump was going to win. Including Trump. Do experts have to be right 100 % of the time? No. But this one is a big one. Selzer was smart to be humble and quit while she is mostly ahead. Lichtman is digger his hole deeper. At this point Lichtman is doing something particularly unhelpful. I don't think it is helpful for him to suggest that maybe Latino men voted for Trump because of disinformation. I'd rather argue they voted for Trump because of inflation and their pocketbook. There is no simple one truth. Some Black women are saying, probably correctly, that some Latino men simply would not vote for a Black woman. There's going to be a reckoning around that, somehow. But for most (White) Democrats, I think the best argument now is that we need to take the economic concerns of working class Latino men (and Asian and Black and White working class men) very seriously. I think Democrats got the memo. I still think Lichtman's Keys are fantastic. Mostly, because they compliment American voters, and say we make smart decisions. So in 2024 it makes it possible to say, "You know what? Latino men are not stupid. They are concerned with higher costs, and putting food on the table for their family." I think that is closer to true than saying Latino men are racist or stupid. I will keep insisting that 2024 was actually a victory for multi-racial democracy. 2024 proved that all Americans are free to vote, and free to vote as they damn well please. We may deeply disagree. But that is why it's a democracy. Where I wish Lichtman would go is this: where was his interpretation of his Keys wrong? He is a mere mortal. It would be a better look if, like Selzer, he simple admitted that all humans make mistakes. He is saying that his "party mandate" key is perhaps in part to blame, because we never had a Democratic primary. My own view is that switching in Harris with no primary was one of the smart things Democrats did. I will always believe the polls were right. We would have done far worse if Biden were at the top of the ticket. Most Republican politicos believe that. They thought they would have something like a Reagan 1980 landslide. I think it is logically next to impossible to argue that all the money, joy, energy, and volunteers Harris brought in didn't help. The fact that it was not enough doesn't mean it didn't keep things from being much worse. The key that I think is obviously suspect is his short-term economy/recession key. Lichtman did count that key against Bush 41 in 1992. And what mattered most, of course, was that he was right. Bush 41 did lose in 1992. But Lichtman's very weak argument was that even though the recession ended in 1991, it was not formally declared over until after the election in 1992. As if anyone cares! What Lichtman also argued at the time, on TV, is that everybody still says we're in a recession in polls. Maybe that is what his key should measure. Because that was obviously THE KEY for a lot of working class voters in 2024, who had voted for Biden in 2020 and were pissed off. If you change that key to be against Harris, that would have been 5. Lichtman's system says you need 6 against you to lose. But Gore also had 5 keys against him in 2000, and lost narrowly. The system is based on the idea that Americans make common sense decisions based on important things. It is almost obviously true that in 2000 and 2020 we had close races, and many Americans had some deeply conflicting impulses. In retrospect, I think had Lichtman counted that short-term economy against Harris, he would have a lot less egg on his face today. The reality that I will always believe is that Harris did a much better job than Biden would have, in a race that was always likely to penalize the incumbent party because of the inflationary economy of 2022. And the higher prices and especially higher rent that have not gone away. And, like in 2000, it was actually close. @EmmetKruelty will keep insisting 2020 was stolen, and 2024 was a landslide. But as of now Harris lost by about 4.5 million votes LESS than Trump did in 2020. Trump lost by 7 million votes. Harris lost by 2.5 million, and that number keeps getting smaller. On the electoral side, if 150,000 Trump voters switched to Harris, she could have won all three blue wall states. My guess is 150,000 2024 Trump voters did vote for Biden in 2020, and were punishing him for inflation and immigration. @EmmetKruelty is a fan of simple-minded dogma and cruelty. I still like Lichtman's Keys. At some point I hope he stops his "disinformation" rant and decides maybe his Keys need a tune up.