stevenkesslar

Lichtman is the first to admit he gets butterflies in his stomach every time. He is never smug about his own fallability. Genocide Man and his cruel mass murder of men, women, and children in Ukraine will actually be an important factor. We know that Trump is on the side of Genocide Man, and he is willing to throw NATO under the bus. He's made that clear. Harris will fight for international norms, and a coalition against genocide and thuggish authoritarian rule. Lots of Republican women will vote for Harris because they are disgusted by Putin's genocide of women and children. This translates directly into one of Lichtman's foreign policy/was keys, which he says will help Harris win. In effect, Harris will win because so many Americans who would happily vote for a Republican will vote for Harris. Like Liz Cheney. Precisely because Genocide Man is a monster who eats women and children, and they feel this beast has to be stopped.

Why won't you tell us why you back a Jew killer admirer? Trump lost in 2020. Lichtman was right in 2020, and every other time So I have the facts on my side. You're the one backing the Jew killer admirer and loser. I

I don't trust you. You admire a Jew killer admirer. Why? It's sick. Even McConnell calls your Jew killer admirer is despicable. I'd much rather believe Fox News. Polls show voters have more favorable view of Harris than Trump Why do you not get that most Americans don't have a favorable view of your Jew killer admirer?

Glad to know you and Trump have being liars in common. Trump tried to change the subject today, too. He had to lie and deny what Kelly said. Just like he has to lie and deny what Pence said, what Esper said, what Milley said, what Bolton said. Trump is all about lying and denying what his own hand picked leaders say. Why? Because of course he can't admit he's a fascist wannabe loser. Because it's why he'll lose again. Why does Trump admire a sick fascist leader who killed 6 million Jews and Gays? Maybe because Hitler didn't have to lie and deny like Trump. He could just be the openly murderous fascist leader who called Jews vermin and slaughtered them, and Gays too. You'd think Trump would denounce Hitler, just like cops denounce Trump. Please explain why Trump admires fascists who slaughter Jews and Gays. Why do you support a leader who admires a Jew killer?

Trump has always had the backs of cops. And their skulls. And arms. And legs. Whatever is easiest to break. TRUMP IS LOVE Police officers injured during Jan. 6th Capitol attack denounce Trump as anti-law enforcement TRUMP IS THE LAW Police officers injured during Jan. 6th Capitol attack denounce Trump as anti-law enforcement TRUMP IS GOD Police officers

Will we have a Holocaust, whether we like it or not? Why does Trump admire a guy who killed millions of Jews and Gays? Although, given that Trump wants generals like Hitler's, you sure got the "whether you like it or not part" right.

Personally, I like Melania. I think you need to be more tolerant. I think you need to give her some time. As far as her Jew killer admiring husband goes, I think he's a loser, personally. People say he's despicable. People says he's a fascist. People say he's a threat to national security. But that's just Republican leaders and his Cabinet Secretaries and Chief of Staff talking. Trump always picks losers and liars, anyway.

It includes cops, too, right? I mean, how can you top the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating? Trump makes America love again! Love transcends even greatness. TRUMP = LOVE When Trump is President, every day will be A Day Of Love TRUMP IS GREATNESS! TRUMP IS LOVE TRUMP IS GOD!

What's the difference?

I think the interesting question is whether the lack of an endorsement helps Harris more than an endorsement? We know that billionaires killed these planned endorsements, Is it because plutocrats who own newspapers want more Trump tax cuts to billionaires? Or because they fear retribution by Trump, or wannabe dictator and Hitler admirer? Still wondering why Trump admires the guy who slaughtered millions of Jews and Gays. I guess that is something for cowardly billionaires to think about, though. It's a perfect example of why and how Trump is unhinged and dangerous, and a real threat to democracy. The only issue is the people who will think about it and read about it are probably against Trump, anyway. But who knows? If they just endorsed Harris, as expected, there would have been no news here. Now the news is that Trump really is a wannabe fascist, and a danger to democracy. Who knew?

Or it could be that Bezos is just scared shitless. All that stuff about locking anyone who opposes Trump up. Maybe this is the part of Jew killer Hitler's awfulness that wannabe Hitler Trump endorses and admires.

Why are billionaires who fascist wannabe and Hitler admirer Trump gave trillions in tax cuts to not endorsing Harris? Well, the question just answers itself, doesn't it? 😉 ME ME ME unhinged liar Trump was all about showering tax cuts on billionaires, himself, rich corporate donors, himself, rich conservative donors, and himself, before America fired the greedy lying loser in 2020. Billionaires Are $2.2 Trillion Richer Since 2017 Trump-GOP Tax Law Wow. What a coincidence! Jeff Bezos is number two on the list. He was a massive winner of ME ME ME liar Trump's massive hog feed to the wealthy. Along with all the billionaire donors who put ME ME ME Trump in power. Wonder who number one is? OMG!!!!! What a shocker!!!!!! If ME ME ME power hungry liar Trump cut taxes to help factory workers, why were there more paid factory jobs in America in January 2017 (12.4 million factory jobs), when the wannabe Jew killer took power, than in January 2021, when he was fired (12.2 million factory jobs). Losers: factory workers. Winners: Bezos, Musk, Jew killer admiring Trump. The tax cuts didn't help the factory workers our Jew killer admirer Trump likes to say he is for. But they sure did help Jeff Bezos. Who stopped the paper he owned from endorsing Harris. Just like another billionaire who fed at Trump's fat cat tax cut hog feed: The rich owners of The Washington Post and L.A. Times just capitulated to Trump Amazon's Jeff Bezos and NantHealth's Patrick Soon-Shiong are an argument against billionaires buying newspapers. Several other members of the LA board resigned because their billionaire, tax cut slobbering owner stopped them from speaking out against Jew killer endorsing Trump. Like the Jew killing process Trump apparently admires, sometimes good people can be silenced. Let's see, Amazon saved $1.56 billion in 2018 and $1.86 billion in 2019. Wonder how much Jeff Bezos plowed into his paper, to hire reporters who answer the question: why does fascist wannabe Trump admire Jew killers and mass murderers,anyway? I'm guessing Bezos just looked after himself. What it proves, if anything, is that ME ME ME Trump's tax cuts to billionaires, and the wannabe dictator's drive for power they pay for in return, is what Trump is all about. And it does corrupt and silence billionaires who grew richer from Trump's tax cuts. Even as factory workers who were supposed to benefit lost their jobs. And speaking of endorsements, why is Trump endorsing Hitler and Stalin? What part of killing six million Jews is the part that Jew Killer admirer Trump thinks was doing a good thing? Or is he saying mass murderer Stalin was better? Poor Putin. He sure is no Stalin. But at least Trump panders to him, and wants Putin to win. Hitler vs. Stalin: Who Killed More? What a sick liar! No wonder McConnell calls Trump a despicable human being, and Kelly calls him a fascist. While the slobbering billionaires who Trump gave fortunes to join Mike Johnson in being silent, cowardly moral worms.

I have done this riff several times, so here I go again. I recall very well when Trump was POTUS, and my brother who is a moderate Democrat and I were talking. The context is this is when Trump is doing his daily press conferences. And talking about anal bleaching or lung bleaching or whatever while Fauci is grimacing. But my brother would go off about stuff I won't repeat, verbatim. It involved how somebody with a gun needed to do something. I was a little shocked, and more than a little amused. This is the brother I would call a Bloomberg Democrat. Or a Pritzker Democrat, since he lives in Illinois. Definitely not a Bernie Bros. Definitely somebody who likes being closer to the center than an extreme. So we'll see. But I know for certain my moderate brothers have been radicalized by this asshole. The polls tells us that for every person who adores Trump, or can even just tolerate him, there is at least one person who despises him. Or even wants to see him[ ................................]. As you said: turnout, turnout, turnout! [................................] No, that is not a death threat. I was referring to people who want to see Melania getting Trump off.

Well, I guess I don't see it quite that way. This issue requires bringing in the big guns. I'm going to have to consult with Cher on this one. I'll get back to you and let you know what she says, Sis.

Kamala Harris just said that, citing General Kelly. Why didn't McConnell and Johnson call Harris out for that? Maybe because they agree with General Kelly and her? At least McConnell and Johnson now want to publicly talk about why Trump is a despicable leader who should lose, which usually they only say in private.

Johnson, McConnell ask Harris to ‘stop escalating the threat environment’ after Trump fascist remarks Their statement does not mention the former president’s recent rhetoric, in which he’s referred to Harris as a “fascist,” “marxist,” “communist” and “comrade.” McConnell and Johnson are now perpetually proving themselves to be moral worms. They will defend any lie Trump tells. Johnson defended and obfuscated around Trump's violent rhetoric about locking Schiff and Pelosi up. And aiming the US military at the American public - at least the part that does not line up behind Trump, a fascist wannabe. In McConnell's case, you can explain this away because he may be senile, and he is definitely weak. We already know in private that he says Trump is a despicable human being, who threw democracy under the bus with his violent Jubilant Patriotic Cop beating. What is Johnson's excuse for being a moral worm, who should not be House Speaker? Because he dares not speak the truth. You don't have to read past the subheader to know that if McConnell and Johnson were not moral worms, they would have been calling out Trump for being despicable and inflammatory every time he opens his lying mouth. It's not just Harris he called a Marxist. He called Pelosi a Marxist. He called Schiff a Marxist. So if that is "escalating the threat environment", they should be calling out Trump for being despicable, like McConnell says in private, every time the despicable liar opens his lying unhinged mouth in public. But the real issue here is why is General Kelly, Trump's Chief of Staff, calling out Trump as a fascist? And why aren't McConnell and Johnson calling out General Kelly, who said it? For that matter, why aren't they calling out Mike Pence, who has some backbone and would not throw democracy under the bus? Why aren't they calling out Trump's Defense Secretary, who says Trump is a security threat? Or all these generals like Milley who also have been willing to call out Trump for being the despicable leader he is? Is warning the US public what we now call "escalating the threat environment"? Or is that just speaking the truth to the American people, which moral worms like Johnson and McConnell dare not speak? And, by the way, if we want to lower the threat environment, can we please talk about the kind of gun that almost killed Trump, which most voters want to see banned? Or when it comes to actually reducing violence, can we only talk about thoughts and prayers? What losers! What hypocrites! What moral worms! Of course Trump deserves to live. And he deserves to lose. This is why.

Funny. I was just reading an article and thinking of doing another post. And I thought, "Nah .............too much." But you just gave me the perfect reason to quote the guy I was going to quote, Jonathon Martin in a new Politico article. Martin is a smart guy. And he is basically wetting the bed and saying Harris is blowing it. He is not alone. I think he is being illogical. Read that quote three times. Because if you tweek the simple ideas and put them together differently, here is what you get: "A majority of Americans in two previous elections did not think Donald Trump had the character and fitness to serve. So why would we litigate whether Donald Trump has the character and fitness to serve?" Duh! The question answers itself. Because THAT is exactly why voters turn against him. He does not have the character and fitness to serve. What more evidence is required that hammering on his lack of character is what makes him lose? He is unfit to serve. That is the message that wins. This is your point, Sis. This is exactly what Harris and her surrogates and allies of democracy like Gen. Kelly should be hammering away at. And they are. Thank God. I don't have access to the internal polls of these campaigns. But we all have access to people like Plouffe, and Axelrod, and Rove, and a myriad of other R and D pollsters. And I think what they are saying is that undecided voters will elect Trump if they are thinking about the economy and high prices when they vote. They will elect Harris if they are thinking about how Trump is unhinged and his former Chief of Staff just reminded us he is a fascist who gets a hard on for Adolph Hitler and other dictators. That's a pretty simple and clear idea about what might turn undecided voters off. To cloud this a little bit, let's play it another way. Yesterday, in addition to Liz Cheney, Harris blasted Trump for not being willing to support a higher minimum wage, even though he wants to parade around at McDonalds. Minimum wage is a very popular liberal idea. Yet we had not one but two pundits on Halperin's 2Way yesterday saying Harris screwed up. And she needs to have one simple and clear message of the day. So she should STFU about minimum wage, and just focus on her message that lots of Republicans like Cheney think Trump is a menace to democracy. My point is no matter what Harris does, some pundit is going to say she is blowing it. The only thing Lichtman would add is that these pollsters and pundits all give themselves way too much credit. Yes, Susie Wiles may think that putting Trump on camera at McDonalds will make people forget about how he wants to be a dictator, in his own words. And how he wants to arrest Nancy Pelosi and maybe finish the job on her husband, in his own words. And how Mike Johnson lies like a cock sucking little whore to pretend that Donald Trump didn't mean what he obviously meant. Lichtman basically says, "Bullshit. Fuck y'all, y'all. The American people ain't that stupid. When the votes are cast and counted, they will figure it out. They always do." One thing surprised me today. Harris polls, which is Mark Penn, says maybe 4 % of voters are undecided, based on the things I outlined above. Something like that number seems to be thrown around a lot. Yet HarrisX is a different poll and pollster. They just argued today up to 12 % of voters are undecided. So maybe there are shades of undecided. Whatever the number is, I'm now persuaded based on everything I hear that Harris has to be the prosecutor making the closing argument that Trump does not have the character and fitness to serve. That is why he lost every other time. That is why he will lose again. And to tie up one loose end, let's be clear about 2016. It's the one and only time Trump did win the electoral college, or do well enough in an election. Every other time - 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 - Trump or his horrible MAGA ideas or his surrogates - lost. But in 2016 Hillary did not and could not make the argument that this guy has been POTUS, and he is an unhinged menace. She made the argument that this guy grabs pussies, and says bad things about overweight girls. That was necessary, but not sufficient. I think in retrospect what mattered more in 2016 was that the Democratic Party was still divided between Clinton and Sanders. And not unified around the idea that stopping Trump is the only thing that matters. In 2024 there is much more unity around the idea that stopping Trump is the only thing that matters. This is not 2016.

I thought this was an interesting update. Not so much on Lichtman, but on Democratic Party bed wetting. Cuomo is a reporter, not a politician. But we all know who his Dad was, and his brother is. So he probably is as good a voice as any for the bed wetting Democratic establishment. This shit show interview genuinely surprised me. Cuomo interviews Lichtman a lot. If I had to name one reporter who seems like he actually understands Lichtman's theory, whether that theory is right or wrong, it would be Cuomo. And in this interview Cuomo basically bungles everything. It seems obvious to me that this is just raw fear. Cuomo is hearing all the bed wetting worries about early voting this and "Trump at McDonalds" that and wetting the bed. And in the process he really sounds jumbled and ignorant about why Lichtman has consistently been right, and what his keys actually mean. As Lichtman says, you can make any prediction you want. But if you are going to use my prediction system, which has been right every time, you have to use it based on my definitions. Cuomo is just throwing spaghetti at the wall because he is worried. Lichtman's point remains the same. All this poll bullshit and photo op bullshit like "Trump at McDonalds" is not what people vote on. He says Harris has it in the bag, based on factors that are far more fundamental, like the economy. And there are polls that now say on the economy Harris is trusted more than Trump, especially by women. So Lichtman has never been wrong, and he does not sound crazy. Or like he is wetting the bed. Even if I assume he was wrong, once, in 2000, he was literally wrong by under 1000 votes in one state, Florida. He still argues Black votes were undercounted, and Gore actually won. Even if you dismiss that, the worst you can say is Lichtman was off by under 1000 votes in one state. I think we all know that if this comes down to less than 1000 votes in Pennsylvania, this is going to be a fucking nightmare. May the best lawyer win. And even on that score, I would rather have a tough prosecutor like Harris than Al Gore fighting for me, any day of the week. I watched a fun interview with David Axelrod and Karl Rove yesterday. These two guys are the wizards who got two Presidents elected four times over a period of 16 years. So if anyone knows something about Presidential elections, it is these two. They agree that it is a dead heat, and every one of seven states is up for grabs. While they don't say it quite this cleanly, they also seem to agree with the core message of some of the most pragmatic pollsters I have cited in other posts. If undecided voters break on the economy, and are focused on higher prices when they vote, Trump will probably win. If they are focused on why Trump is unhinged, and is not worthy of being in power again, Trump will probably lose. We just don't know which way undecided voters will go. But I think Lichtman makes sense. He thinks if you understand US history, and what really matters to most people, you can see where this is going. I sure hope he is right again.

Harris on Kelly reports: Trump ‘wants unchecked power’ John Kelly, Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, told The New York Times the former president is “certainly an authoritarian” who “falls into the general definition of fascist.” It's encouraging that every time the sick fascist wannabe says sick and violent stuff, revealing what a prick he really is, there is an equal or stronger force that stands for American values that opposes Trump. So Trump's thug statements about throwing Pelosi and Schiff in jail and further pissing on democracy and the rule of law brought out General Kelly, who knows full well that Trump is a wannabe Friend of Adolph. Of course the sick lying fuck now has to disown Kelly and lie more. He has to argue we should not believe what we hear from conservatives like his former Veep, his former Defense Secretary, his former Chief of Staff, his former National Security Adviser. All of whom say this guy has dictatorial values, and he does not uphold democratic standards of the rule of law. This is exactly why the sick lying ME ME ME dictator wannabe is going to lose.

Quizas, quizas, quizas!

Not sure where you got that. This was the most recent interview I've seen where Carville says, "I think she will win." That's pretty clear. He also goes off on your point: what a fascist "lock up Democrats" wannabe Trump is.

A minority in America ...................... I'll add a fact, and a theory. The fact is that Lichtman has been right every time he made a prediction, and he is predicting Harris. You can put an asterisk next to Al Gore. And if the 2024 election hangs on 1000 votes in Pennsylvania, like 2000 did in Florida, well it's possible we could get another version of that. But it is extremely unlikely, even in these crazy days. I'll add Michael Moore as a kind of housewives' tale prediction. He says Kamala will win because of a wall of women. Why believe these two? The key thing about Lichtman's argument is he claims, I think correctly, that as a historian he has figured out something about the structure of US elections. And at the simplest level it boils down to the fact that if the current Administration has done a good enough job, they get a second term. And it's not about whether Trump entertains people at McDonalds, or Harris wins the day on free media. It's about the economy, and getting laws passed, and having a unified party, and other important shit. In other words, we actually do have moral standards, and governance standards, and values actually matter. All this other stuff is noise. So, right or wrong, I am believing that Lichtman is correct yet again.. Moore gives me a kind of "crazy Grandma in the attic who is always right" way of thinking about the same thing. He sensed that there was a big problem in 2016 and Trump was actually inspiring a lot of people at the grassroots in Michigan who Hillary was just not connecting with. He was equally right about 2020 and 2022, which was supposed to be a bad year for Democrats. In fact, women politicians rocked in Michigan in 2022 and won all the big offices - at the worst point in our recent inflation adventure, and despite polls that said otherwise. So everything Lichtman and Moore are saying sounds very plausible. I'll add a third person with awesome political instincts: James Carville. He was crawling out of his skin six months ago about Biden and his chances. Now he is emphatically saying Harris will win. How does he now? He doesn't. But he has pretty good Spidey sense about these things. Including how Americans perceive the economy, stupid. I think it's probably true that Harris has neutralized that issue with most people who are undecided and willing to give her a real hearing. What connects all these dots for me is the level of disgust people feel for Trump, his values, his actions, his past unhinged leadership, and every sick and foul and wrong thing the felon and liar stands for. We have polls telling us this is very real. I just have to listen to my own moderate brothers open their mouths about this guy and I know it is true. So I don't find it hard to believe that somehow the 52 % of Americans who have been saying consistently and increasingly emphatically since 2017 that Trump is a bad leader are going to somehow figure out how to shit can this unhinged menace once and for all. And it will be because of that list of Trump's true sick values I posted above. From "grab 'em by the pussy" to "arrest Nancy Pelosi" while some MAGA nut hammers her husband's brain in, the majority of Americans feel deeply that this is not what America is. And this is not what we want America to be. I think that America is going to win. It always does, in the end. No matter how much bad shit we have to go through to get there. We have a prosecutor who stands for law and order and is a paragon of the American success story. We have a felon who stands for everything bad and corrupt and law breaking and vile about America. Who has no character and many lifelong psychological problems that boil down to ME ME ME. I think this is what MLK was predicting, as well. His dream is coming true. Biden may be old and unpopular. But I think we will learn this is what America wants to be.

THIS IS WHY TRUMP WILL NOT BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT

Sorry, have to vouch for the clown on this. Trump did a great job of cutting taxes for himself and his rich donors. Meanwhile, factory jobs went away. Meanwhile, he blew up the deficit, and will happily do so again. Turn presided over an incredible spike in murders, drug overdoses, and the sale of guns - all related to policies that most Americans want changed. Harris stands for law and order. Trump is a felon. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Trump tried to cut Obamacare and take our health care rights away. Sorry. Ran out of space. But he actually tried it more times than that. John McCain was a hero. Donald Trump is a loser.

He is an unhinged nut with psychological and mental problems. This is not my theory, or what Democrats say. This is what pollsters like Republican Stimple who work for Cook Political Report say about how undecided voters feel, and why they will not commit to Trump. These are well documented objective facts. How is this documented? Simple. MAGA lost in 2018. MAGA lost in 2020. MAGA lost in 2022. MAGA lost in 2023. MAGA has lost several times in 2024. Whenever Trump and MAGA touch someone with a relatively pure MAGA heart, like Kari Lake, it is as if they are saying, "Turn to shit. Turn to shit. Turn to shit." And she does. I mean, what will it take to elect a Republican Senator in Arizona or Georgia again? Duh! You have to get rid of Trump. Just ask McConnell, who knows Trump is a despicable human being. But MAGA would rather have their unhinged nut. Not my problem. So it does suck bad for you, my friend. Trump and DJT will tank at the same time. Double loss. Can't say I didn't warn ya.