PeterRS

I recall how low stocks fell dramatically by almost 40% a few months back. But they have since recovered a lot of their value. The drop in late 2007 was nearly 50% and it took the market 6 years to recover. We are told that the present economic state of the world is a great deal worse than 2007/8 and we have to look to 1929 for a comparison. So I still cannot understand. If investors are similar to you and putting in only 10% of what they used to invest, who is putting in the rest of the cash to keep the DJ so high? And does not the lesson of history dictate that the market has to collapse very dramatically very soon?s

Sorry Spoon. Soros may have had a hand in the recession but only a small one. By the mid 1990s several Asian countries were vastly overleveraged. Thailand had maintained its currency at the rate of US$1=25 baht for many years. To maintain the rate, it was increasingly forced to raise interest rates. This made borrowings in overseas currencies far more attractive to Thai businesses since they would pay a lot less in interest. The same was true of businesses in other countries, including Malaysia Further north, Japanese banks were in serious long term trouble, a result of their stock market rout in the early part of the decade. From a high of almost 39,000 in January 1990 it had collapsed to 15,000 by July 1995 and was still on the way down. To help their balance sheets, they began withdrawing funds from all over South East Asia by mid-decade. Sensing blood, hedge funds, including one run by Soros, saw the opportunity, moved in and attacked the baht which they perceived to be the weakest currency. The Thai government was able to fend off the first attack. In doing so though it had to spend all its foreign exchange reserves. By the time the hedge funds had regrouped and mounted the second attack on July 1stThailand had no choice but to float the baht. Within one day it fell from 25 to 30 to the US$. It then collapsed. Many businesses with overseas borrowings simply could not repay them and went belly up. The house of Asian cards then came tumbling down. On the other hand, Soros did single-handedly bet against sterling by short selling the currency in the early 1990s and ending up with a £1 billion profits

Didnt he say that during the dot.com bubble when the US economy was really booming? It is now tanking big time.

More than a shame that they did not also honor the second Navy Seal who lost his life as a result of the rescue. Petty Officer 1st class Bayroot Pakbara contracted a blood infection during the rescue. Despite continuing treatment hat infection finally took his life in December last year. https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2019/12/29/thai-seal-dies-of-blood-infection-a-year-after-cave-rescue/

We have been told no tourists are flying in. Yet a quick look at BKK's updated on-line arrival/departure info for yesterday and today shows that there are several passenger international flights - EVA to London, Austrian to Vienna, Qatar, Etihad, Oman Air and Emirates to the Middle East, Emirates also to Auckland, China Airlines 2 or 3 flights to Taipei, JAL to Tokyo and Osaka, KLM to Manila and Amsterdam, Cathay Pacific and TG to Hong Kong and Qantas to Sydney. Who is arriving on these flights? Surely they cant all be business people and high-end tourists.

Can anyone explain to me why in these desperate economic times, way worse than the financial crisis of 2008, the Dow Jones index is close to its record high?

Vietnam has had no deaths and one of the lowest infection rates in the world.

Sorry to say that is only partly correct. Have you seen the short Japanese-made vdo that has been shown several times on CNN? It clearly illustrates that droplets move forward as well as upwards for well about 2 meters.

It is perhaps hard for those of us who read this forum to realise what life is truly like when you live virtually on the breadline earning only just enough to survive. Then your only source of income is taken away overnight Perhaps you have kids and a corrugated roof over your head. You can find ways of feeding them but you have no idea when or if you can start to earn a few thousand baht a month again. The constant worry, fear and then despair has to have an effect on your mental health. Perhaps we should remember the case of the Korean salaryman during the Asian Economic crisis which hit that country very hard. Every morning, he got up, dressed in his suit for work, had a meagre breakfast with his family and went off to work carrying his briefcase. In the evening he returned late, as many Korean workers do. This was the pattern of his life. After many months he killed himself. It was then realised he had been fired from his job when the Crisis started but he could not bear to admit this to his family. Fear of being regarded a failure and the culture of Korean society overcame reason. So every day he left home and just sat on a park bench for more than 12 hours thinking and worrying. As his savings finally vanished, he felt suicide was the only way out.

Throughout the last couple of months, the only people I have seen not wearing masks in Bangkok have been a handful of farang! I have absolutley no problem with scanning the QR code when I enter and exit buildings. If that helps tracing should someone with an infection be detected, why on earth would anyone object to it? In desperate times, surely personal privacy has to take a back seat? Even better than Thailand has been Taiwan where life has been virtually normal throughout the last few months apart from the wearing of masks and use of hand sanitisers. No schools or businesses closed, restaurants and coffee shops open and doing great business, If Taiwan has avoided the desperate problems facing many countries, what about Vietnam? In early March when I was there, by government mandate everyone had to wear masks and hand sanitiser was everywhere. Result? No deaths. Idiots like Johnson, Bolsonaro and Trump who have rejected scientific evidence and the lessons of past pandemics resulting in vast numbers of their populations being condemned to death should be tried for wilful murder.

I suppose you consider a young gay massage boy who has not been able to work for months who has trouble paying off loans and sending money to his family and can not afford PReP will always make a rational decision when faced with your question. I suggest you put yourself in his position before you talk about raw sex.

Ref my post of May 23 above, the sequel to the successful Thai movie Present Perfect is now showing again in Bangkok cinemas. Set in a small resort on Koh Kood, Present Still Perfect corinues the story of the two guys who first met in a resort in Hokkaido and started a short lived relationship. We enjoyed both movies but found the sequel less enjoyable from the film making viewpoint. The three main characters in the original were very well acted and extremely believable. Present Still Perfect still has fine acting from the two boys but the two others seem to be much more Thai movie stereotypes - a ditsy manageress whose hair is almost permanently in large curlers and a cute Japanese boy as a tourist whose role in the film we just could not understand. Still, it is well worth seeing and a good example of a movie based totally on a serious gay theme.

Continuing for a moment on this serious sidetrack, I was in Dick's a few years ago having dinner with several friends. The subject of shingles came up. Three had suffered from shingles and were saying how nasty it was. One said he had had the rash on his forehead. This can be particularly serious as there is a possibility iit can affect the eyes. The next day I popped in to BNH and got the latest shingles vaccine. It was not cheap, about 8000 baht for the doctor consultation and the vaccine. But it was then a new vaccine and i was told it would cover me for at least 10 years. Money well spent. I encourage everyone to have themselves vaccinated.

I would definitely hold off your plans. We assume that some international flights will be permitted to land and take off from Thailand airports from July 1. But we do not yet know which countries will remain on a no fly list. I cannot see flights from countries where covid 19 is still not under control being permitted - but thats a guess. Second, as has been pointed out somewhere I recently read, you will almost certainly need a ton of paperwork including medical insurance up to US$100,000, a letter from the Thai Consulate etc. before you can get on a plane. Then we still have no idea if there will be any quarantine regulations remaining in place. The Prime Minister has made it clear there will be no general opening of tourism. The number of flights permitted to land will be strictly limited.

Agreed. But if you do not like/use condoms and you say you are totally free of STDs, then you must obviously get tested after each and every sexual encounter AND wait for the window for HIV to expire before you have sex again. That is the only way to ensure you are STD free. Do you do that? If you do not, then each and eery time you are always putting your partner at risk while you enjoy your risky behaviour. Oh and by the way, getting tested regularly for all STDs will make quite a hole in your wallet.

I cant help thinking back to the start of the HIV pandemic, SARS and a comparison with covid19. On the surface HIV was the worst virus toe world has seen in our lifetimes. Everyone in the 1980s knew that getting HIV was a death sentence. Thailand had a rapidly increasing rate of victims. Heck, every country had. There was talk that visitors ftom certain countries might be banned from bars because it was assumed they would more likely bring the virus, but that never happened. The bars remained full at the weekends, there were boys galore and the pandemic did not seem to limit anyones enjoyment. The difference then was condoms. It quickly became known that known that HIV was spread through exchange of bodily fluids. Thailand had the "condom king" khun Meechai who had been working for years in the provinces promoting condom use to reduce family sizes. it was not difficult for him to switch tack and promote general condom use. For those who have not heard of him, you may know his famous Cabbages and Condoms restaurant off Suk around Soi 10 or 12. He took the stigma out of condoms. He made fun of them. Bar owners gladly held seminars with their boys to illustrate how they should be used. From what I read, the SARS and covid19 viruses are closely related and very similar. The one crucial difference is that the effects of SARS became noticeable within two days of infection. Tracing contacts was therefore massively easier. The virus was relatively quickly controlled without the need for any vaccine. Sadly the effects of covid19 take about two weeks and many infected are asymptomatic. So how do you protect yourself and others from tiny unseen droplets in the air unless you wear a face condom - ie. a mask. On CNN this morning there is a rather alarming study which illustrates that droplets from one bad cough can actually carry as far as 12 feet which they will reach in about 1 minute following the cough. Wear a standard surgical mask and the risk is greatly lessened, but droplets will still escape and spread from the sides. They help the wearer but are less effective for those around you. The N95 mask which I find very uncomfortable to wear in the heat of Thailand much reduces the risk of the escape of droplets. Covid19 has a much reduced death rate compared to those who suffered from HIV and SARS. But there is another worrying fact. It is now known that quite a number of those who recover can end up with longer term health problems. "Bizarre" is how various experts describe the effects. They just do not yet know how this virus really works or what its long term effects might be. Its all very troubling. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-long-term-severe-effects-covid-19-can-go-months/

You have given plenty of clues and I believe I have two of the words. But the rest escapes me, Obviously i do not read the site often enough and do not know the members. But thanks for an entertaining quiz.

I have all but one letter - cannot answer 19 across although I have 2 of the letters. Can we know how many words in the final answer? Surely not all 15 are in one word!

It is named "Present Perfect". This link should give the trailer. There is a sequel titled "Present Still Perfect" that had just opened when cinemas were closed due to covid19. Initial reports indicate it is not nearly as good as the original.

Do you mean they form an anagram? If not, are they in the order in which they appear in your clues or the order on the page? One more question. With the Thai BL movies, is there a number in the squares?

The bars lasted through the early years of the much scarier HIV pandemic. In fact they increased in number. They lasted through three years of the Asian Economic Crisis. They lasted through the 2008 global financial recession. The main difference in recent years has been the replacement of Thai boys with others from neighbouring countries. My view is that in future it will become more difficult for Lao, Cambodian and Vietnamese to return for quite some time after the bars reopen. But like the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s many Thai boys may now be desperate for decent paying work. Maybe they will return to the bars. There are two huge differences between 2020 and the three instances I refer to above. 1. international air travel. IATA has stated it will be 2024 before flights return to their 2019 level. 2. Disposable incomes of millions of possible gay travellers have taken a big hit. If flight prices rise to a point where gay tourists decide they just cannot afford to fly to Thailand, what happens to the demand for the bars over the next year or two? Bars can probably survive a shutdown for a few months. Can they survive a major drop off in customers lasting years?

True. Even with good load factors the profit was probably minimal. I also suspect THAI just did not have spare twin engine aircraft to maintain the US routea. Singapore Airlines had a daily Newark/Singapore non stop for some years but that also used A340s and was cancelled when oil prices started to spike.. It was reinstated last year as a business and premium economy only flight using newer A350 aircraft. I cant imagine a THAI non stop surviving without a decent sized economy section.

I believe the reason for the THAI flights being cancelled was a result of the airline purchasing a fleet of long haul 4 engine gas guzzling Airbus A340s for the US routes. This was just before the extended flight range over water for twin engine jets like the 777s was extended to enable twin engine aircraft to fly these ultra long haul routes. The THAI A340s had an extra large biz class and If I recall correctly load factors wete more than good. Sadly the A340s were the wrong plane at the wrong time, same as the A380 was also several years too late into the market. THAI has tried to offload the A340s without much success. Most airlines just dont want them now.

My guess is that amazon used regular international flights for shipping. If you have the packages sent to a friend in the USA or UK, DHL still ships into and out of Thailand.

Its crystal ball time. Although Thailands domestic carriers can operate from tomorrow, the restrictions including social distancing mean that capacity can only be about 50%. I havent looked at fares but the Bangkok Post reckoned these would rise by 50%. Not surprising. In the USA, the average internal flight now only has 17 passengers. What of international airlines? When will they be allowed to land at DMK and BKK? What will their fares be like? How many will want to travel? Most of the fleets of international airlines have been mothballed and many staff either laid off or taking early retirement. Will passengers from certain countries be banned for longer than others? In Asia, Vietnam and Taiwan appear to have controlled the covid19 virus far better than others. Since all air routes depend on passengers flying in both directions, will flights out of Hanoi and Taipei be safer than the return legs on the same aircraft? Aircraft orders have all but collapsed with Airbus and Boeing both in trouble. Boeing still has a huge mess on its hands with yet more recently discovered 737 Max flaws still unresolved and Boeing itself advising the flight to obtain regulatory approval has been pushed back again. Now it is likely to take place in August. Since this must be the 6th or 10th date given by the manufacturer, the chances of its being delayed again must be high. Southwest has already announced the postponement of its introduction to October 30. Thats not the manufacturers only problem though. It seems that if it cannot deliver aircraft within 12 months of the date in the contract, airlines can cancel orders at no penalty. With the planes receiving such a negative public image, Boeing had orders for 150 of the aircraft cancelled in March alone. How many more customers will cancel? And what will Boeing do if its cash cow is unable to persuade the public that it is in fact safe? Would you fly in the plane? Despite the success of its A320 Neo and A350 aircraft, Airbus is also facing blank order books and is bleeding cash. Then there is the collapse of the price of oil. Since the A320 Neo and the 737 Max were sold on the basis of there being more fuel efficient than existing models, presumably that claim is far less important than it was last year now that oil will make up a much smaller percentage of flight costs. Both aircraft were developed to make single aisle travel across longer distances possible more cheaply. Would I want to take a n 8 hour flight on a single aisle aircraft? Frankly no! Then, will the oil price reduction make 4 engine planes now more efficient? Is there a chance the Airbus A380 could be reprieved? Who would run an airline!