Trump made them play their own trump card, the strait of hormuz. The only real answer is invasion. Trump's politically in a corner about the war already. Ordering a ground assault and an occupying force would end him. He's an idiot, but I don't think he's that much of an idiot.
So, I don't see Trump getting what he wants at the negotiation table even if the Iranians negotiated in good faith. They're very bad people, but they're not stupid people. For all their suffering, they have defeated us. They have a big chunk of the world's oil and gas hostage.
Whether we withdraw more from the middle east, everybody is looking around for more trustworthy allies than the US. We elected that buffoon twice. They need to prepare for whoever the third will be.