Investment tip

[Guest shamahan]

In connection with just starting QE in eurozone euro is sinking. But there is a silver lining here:almost automatically stocks in eurozone will go up. I  never recommend stock market as a form of investment because it totally screwed by central bankers and basically a Ponzi scheme but there are

times where real money can be made. For Canadians (where the rate cut led to immediate drop of looney versus US Dollar and , unfortunately Thai Baht) the situation is much trickier cause their most interesting stocks are in commodities and commodities stink right now. One can make good money on oil volatility but it is risky. Go for German or French stock market.

[kokopelli]

For Canadians (where the rate cut led to immediate drop of looney versus US Dollar and 

At first  I thought that was a typo for money;  but now remember my days of debauchery in Montreal.

[Guest shamahan]

Should it have been loonie? I wrote it in a state of debauchery....

[Guest jomtien]

.

[Guest]

Investment tip:  

1 Only learn from people who know what they are doing. 

2 When someone cannot even assess current data properly, what chance do they have of analysing what lies ahead ?

 

 

Anyway, for anyone who is interested in the subject of investment, here are some links. 

 

http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/rtfiles/cbs/hermes/Buffett1984.pdf

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-cape-crash-but-2014-9?IR=T

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqzcCfUglws

[Guest shamahan]

Investment tip:  

1 Only learn from people who know what they are doing. 

2 When someone cannot even assess current data properly, what chance do they have of analysing what lies ahead ?

 

 

 

Who cannot assess a current data properly? Anyway, instead of worthless generic bullshit in previous post, just buy European stocks. I actually made good money on Japanese QE. And, by the way, Deutsche Bank agrees with my recommendation.

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-23/deutsche-banks-most-cynical-take-draghis-qe-yet-buy-european-stocks-even-though-qe-w

[Guest abang1961]

Just have to add.. revival of the Tom-yum phantom?

 

Investment tips I have none but the act of social graciousness I can share a little.

My late mother always say, "Say 70% of the truth if it hurts the other people".

And she concluded "The truth shall be revealed"..

 

So, I mourn for the demise of social integrity and mutual acceptance.

I long for more consultation rather than face-on confrontation.

And world peace.. play safe too!

[Bob]

Besides the relevance to this forum (really related to gay Thailand?), one probably good investment tip is that people with money to invest probably ought to do a fair amount of research themselves and/or talk to trusted investment advisers prior to committing any significant portion of their assets to any investment scheme.  Rational research, by the by, probably doesn't include reading "investment advice" on internet message boards.  

[Guest]

Who cannot assess a current data properly?

I recall someone who was adamant that 2/3rds of Thais were employed in agriculture.  There was even a follow up post defending this, when it might have made more sense to quietly check recent fact and data.  World bank data shows the true figure is nearer 40%.

 

The best advice in this thread was by Bob in the previous post.

[Guest shamahan]

This is because you do not understand what are you talking about: you picked one number and crying gotcha. First of all you need to count farming households , because on the farm all family (not just adults) involved. Secondly, you need to add seasonal workers (landless peasants) who do not form farming households but their number is several millions in Thailand. Thirdly, you need to add people involved in food processing, fertilizer production etc whose jobs depend on agriculture etc.

If you compare the data here (2009)

 

http://www.agribenchmark.org/fileadmin/Dateiablage/B-Cash-Crop/Conferences/2010/Presentations/Thailand_Isvilanonda.pdf

and the data here

www.baac.or.th/baac_en/content-about.php,

you will see that the number of farming households increased from 5.78 millions in 2009 to around 8 millions now. The truth is that BAAC does not take into consideration all farming households in Thailand.

I am not blaming you: you are not economist but,please, do not pretend that you understand anything regarding agriculture in Thailand.

[Guest shamahan]

This is because you do not understand what are you talking about: you picked one number and crying gotcha. First of all you need to count farming households , because on the farm all family (not just adults) involved. Secondly, you need to add seasonal workers (landless peasants) who do not form farming households but their number is several millions in Thailand. Thirdly, you need to add people involved in food processing, fertilizer production etc whose jobs depend on agriculture etc.

If you compare the data here (2009)

 

http://www.agribenchmark.org/fileadmin/Dateiablage/B-Cash-Crop/Conferences/2010/Presentations/Thailand_Isvilanonda.pdf

and the data here

www.baac.or.th/baac_en/content-about.php,

you will see that the number of farming households increased from 5.78 millions in 2009 to around 8 millions now. The truth is that BAAC does not take into consideration all farming households in Thailand.

I am not blaming you: you are not economist but,please, do not pretend that you understand anything regarding agriculture in Thailand.

http://www.baac.or.th/baac_en/content-about.php

[Guest]

 

 

Two thirds of Thai population is occupied in agriculture.

 

 

The difference between you and me that I specifically study Thailand and my data is correct. You just visit for couple of weeks Thailand chasing boys. I talk to the people and know what is the real sitiation on the ground.

 

Cutting out all the waffle,  from the link you supplied :     Population in agriculture 37.6 %

 

As I said, only take investment advice from people who know what they are doing.

[Guest shamahan]

Cutting out all the waffle,  from the link you supplied :     Population in agriculture 37.6 %

 

As I said, only take investment advice from people who know what they are doing.

You are not cutting out the waffle, you are lying. Your data from world bank as of 2009 gives around 40 percent of adults working in agriculture. The data provided in the link gives 37.6 percent of population in farming households in 2009. This is compatible.

The data from BACC shows that the number of farming households since then increased by at least 2million. If you take into account other categories of workers that I mentioned, you will get about 2/3 of Thai population who are involved in agriculture

and related areas in Thailand. I would say that you fall below the category of elementary decency. My recommendation: just shut up on the topic you know nothing about.

[Guest shamahan]

 

 

The best advice in this thread was by Bob in the previous post.

I would say that Bob made the best post in the thread. However, when it comes to investment tips who is making money that is what really counts.

[Guest]

Two thirds of Thai population is occupied in agriculture.

You said two thirds, which is 66.7% just in case you struggle with the maths.   

 

Then you said:

The difference between you and me that I specifically study Thailand and my data is correct

 

So how can your 66.7% be correct when a few days later it is 37.6%  ?   

 

No doubt you will again ignore that point & concoct another idiotic response, again based on something I have not said (like in the previous posts).  

 

You can kid yourself, but the readers will not be fooled.

[vinapu]

I would say that Bob made the best post in the thread. However, when it comes to investment tips who is making money that is what really counts.

You may be on something, after all very few professionals predicted collapse of Lehman Brothers  but I know pretty unsophisticated financially  truck driver who sold very well his rental property just before of crash on gut feeling that mortgages are given too freely to all and sundry and this is not a good thing .

[Bob]

Seems somewhat puzzling to me that somebody who's long proclaimed to be an investment guru in the West is now claiming to be a source of expertise about agricultural employment in Thailand.  Perhaps, Shamahan,  it would help all non-believers, including myself, if you might state how it is that you gained your asserted expertise in this area.

 

Be that as it may be, my gut simply tells me that there is no way that 2/3rd's of the Thai population is involved in agriculture.    Checking a few websites...including the World Bank and even the CIA.........they seem to list 38-40% of the employed population as involved in agriculture and that seems a bit more sensical to me.  And note they're talking about a population of those who are employed (i.e., if one included the entire population including the kiddies, grannies, retired, etc.,  the percentage of the entire population involved in agriculture would even be lower).

[Guest abang1961]

As a Mathematics teacher for over 20 years and a major in Statistics, the figures quoted by the various parties may be correct or incorrect depending on which perspective we are looking at.

 

The lower percentage indicates the actual manual labourers involved while the higher percentage includes those who are in para-business such as wholesalers, distributors and factory workers doing the sorting, packing, transporting.  

 

Just like there are about 3.5 million Singapore citizens but more than 5 million people living in Singapore.. The balance may be domestic helper, people on employment, people on medical recovery and tourists.  So to be fair, not 1 figure alone is absolutely accurate and definitive and finally, the onus of the data analysis depends on the data collection/extra-polation process and the objective of the survey.

 

Just like if you peep into the night life in Silom, one is tempted to jump to conclusion that prostitution is the ONLY trade/source of income for many Thais... (of course, there is some truth but it is not absolutely correct)

 

Anyway, no point cross-swording... 

[Guest abang1961]

#18

This is going to be my last post on the topic ..

Reasons: Only I know..

[vinapu]

 

Just like if you peep into the night life in Silom, one is tempted to jump to conclusion that prostitution is the ONLY trade/source of income for many Thais... (of course, there is some truth but it is not absolutely correct)

 

 

Actually I think you are speaking from "in the know" person's point of view.

 

If one is newcomer and is not particularly sharp observer  not looking for night's company may actually pass Silom on both sides without seeing any prostitute soliciting and if will not go deeper in Patpong sois person won't be suspecting of what's going on.

 

The same  goes with Sukhumvit and Nana Plaza and soi Cowboy although one can spot working lady here and there along Sukhumvit  between Nana and Asok stations.

 

This is beauty of Thai night life, it's there but not in your eye. I recall at least 2 situations when I was asked on Silom where Patpong is and those people weren't blind.

[Shonen]

Nothing wrong with advice as long as you understand it's one mans opinion. I agree with Shamahan that Euro stocks will rise. I bought French company Total, maybe too early but I like buying out of favour stocks like oil. Any specific recommendations ?

[Guest]

How about Jupiter European Opportunities Investment Trust?  

 

The 10 year record is very good.   This is not advice, just a suggestion.  DYOR.