Thailand's economy falls into recession

[TotallyOz]

Thailand has fallen into recession after the economy shrank unexpectedly in the second quarter of the year.

 

The 0.3% contraction in gross domestic product between April and June followed a previous fall of 1.7% during the first quarter of 2013.

 

Previously, Thailand had been recording strong economic growth, outpacing other economies in the region, with expansion of more than 6% during 2012.

 

Many analysts had expected this performance to continue.

 

see the full story at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23751846

 

also at:

http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-304085/

[Bob]

I'm guessing, Michael, that the BBC's reporting is really sloppy.  I recognize that growth in GDP in Thailand has dropped over the last year but I'm extremely doubtful the Thai economy is at "recession" levels (which, I think, means that growth dips below flat line or 0%).  The US defines a recession as two quarters in a row of below 0% GDP growth.

 

According to the second article you "urled":  "Thailand's GDP grew 2.8% on year in the second quarter, below expectations of over 3%."  That's no "recession" under anybody's definition of the term.

 

Now, regardless of the above, I'm personally very bearish about the Thai economy over the next few years.  It's built, in my view, on a house of cards and Thailand - both economically and educationally - isn't keeping up with many Southeast Asia nations.  I smell bigtime a property bubble all over Southeast Asia and, if the ol' bubble bursts, it might look a whole lot like 1997 around here. 

[Guest]

The FT reports a "technical recession".  Looks like it might be a bad quater or 2, but overal growth is expected for the whole year.

 

They also report household debt was 55% of gdp in 2009 and has now increased to 80%.