£ Sterling in 10yr low v Thai baht

[Guest scottishguy]

From £= 76.07B in Dec 2004, the lowest point (so far) in the past 10 years has been reached in March 2013 with £= 44.3B.

 

This represents more than 40% reduction in the exchange rate over that period.

 

The $US has fallen (high point to low point) around 30% against THB over that period, the allegedly "basket-case" Euro has dipped approx 35% (from Euro= 60B to Euro= 39B currently) - but the star of the show must be the $AUS which has RISEN 50% from its low point of 21B in 2003 to just over 30B and very close to its 10 year high-point.

 

Even allowing for the fact that (apparently) only multi-millionaires post here and on other such fora -  Australian expats ought to be celebrating, EU and USA expats must be concerned, and UK expats are probably wishing they had bought a condo on a higher floor - which would guarantee instant death rather than just permanent disablement.

 

As for tourists - no wonder they are thinking twice if coming from Europe, USA, or UK. Not only are they facing horrendous exchange rates but increased bar and accommodation prices (cannot comment on food - I don't eat between drinks). The only saving grace is that boys are still charging the same prices (more or less) - so you get just as much bang for your baht, just fewer bahts to bang with.

 

 

 

[a447a]

but the star of the show must be the $AUS which has RISEN 50% from its low point of 21B in 2003 to just over 30B and very close to its 10 year high-point.

Yay!!!!

 

But to be honest, I'd still travel to LOS even if it had FALLEN 50%.  So much fun to be had, so little time.

[Guest scottishguy]

Yes, I'm only highlighting exchange rates of course - Cost v Value is a different debate altogether! LOL

[Guest fountainhall]

Sterling's fall has sure been pretty dramatic. And for those travelling here or, probably worse, living here on fixed sterling based pensions, it must be pretty alarming.

 

But there is a problem with comparing rates over a fixed period, in that it can lead to assumptions which may or may not be accurate.

 

With one small exception, I'm sure the facts above are all quite correct. But the Ozzie $ was on a roller coaster between 2002 and 2011. It seems to have started 2003 at around Bt. 21/22 peaking around Bt. 32 in June 2005 before crashing again down to around 21 in November 2008. And although it's now at Bt. 30, it was Bt. 33 last August.

 

Even with sterling, Bt. 76 was its absolute peak in the last 10 years. In 2003 it had been as 'low' as Bt. 64.40! And the descent from Bt. 76 has been relatively steady.

 

If you go back a bit further, though, and take January 1998 as your start point, the falls have been much more spectacular. Then you could get Bt. 56 for US$1 or Bt. 90 for £1. The massive decline is seen when you realise the rates in June 1997 had been around Bt. 25 and Bt. 42 respectively, the dollar rate having been fixed for almost 2 decades. The crash may have been been the culmination of massive speculation by George Soros and his ilk, but the root cause was the result of massive government and business ineptitude. Attempting to protect their own business interests and those of their cronies, all of which had borrowed massive amounts in overseas currencies at interest rates way lower than those in Thailand, the pressure on the fixed rate became wholly unsustainable. The Baht crashed, but only after the government had spent nearly every satang of its foreign exchange reserves to prop it up. 

 

So if you compare June 1997 with March 2013, holders of US$s and £s are technically still better off!!

 

But history is easy to regurgitate. The real question must be what's going to happen in the future. And I haven't the faintest idea!

[NIrishGuy]

Well I'm sure I'm not the only one but whilst not 100% to do with the exchange rate but in some large part to do with it I am now actively looking at going to somewhere other than Thailand for my summer break as it is just getting dearer and dearer to go there at every level.

 

Obviously the Pound dropping screws up everything no matter where you're travelling to, but as has already been pointed out when you factor in things like the high drinks prices etc it DOES all start to add up and whilst I am by no means a cheap charlie or a Baht watcher when I'm on holiday I do return after each trip now and after each and every trip now say WHAT ! HOW MUCH !  - and yes the sex is good of course and I do enjoy Thailand but you can also find similar places such as the Philippines etc for much less and the local bars etc could do well to remember that when continually scamming us in so many ways - mind you I doubt they give a shit as western farang are now of course somewhere close to the bottom of the pecking order I would imagine compared to the Asian and Russian market these days when it comes to who they want to keep coming back.  

[Guest scottishguy]

What we know is likely to happen in the short to mid term is that the UK (and I even use the term "UK" advisedly - that could all change within 2 years) will continue to bump along the bottom of a very deep rut - with very low (if any) growth and the economy surviving by a combination of increased government borrowing financing an increased deficit and Bank of England "inventing" funds.

 

The only way the £ could gain significantly against the THB would be if the baht collapsed. IMHO. 

 

NIrish - I agree with you - on my last 2 trips I have bypassed Thailand in favour of Prague and Gran Canaria.

This summer I shall bypass Thailand again, in favour of Berlin.

 

Sure, I can't walk into a go-go bar in those places and choose from 30 boys in their underwear - but:

i)  I'm not a sex maniac (that wore off years ago!)

ii) Out of the 30 in a Pattaya go-go bar there's probably only 2 I "fancy" these days

iii) I can also pay for my flight and a week's  accommodation for the price of just the flight to Thailand.

 

It does make one think.

[NIrishGuy]

well now you see to perhaps TOTALLY contradict what I've just said above over the last few years like you I've covered several of the main the Europeans gay hot spots such as Siteges, Gran Can, Barcelona, Amsterdam etc etc as well as squeezing in SE Asia and around the time of booking I being a creature of habit go through the same stupid ritual of saying NO, I'm going to LOS this time, it's too bloody expensive, I'll just stay "local" i.e. in the E.U  BUT ! then after sitting down and going over the flights to "somewhere" then the (usually gay) hotel and the single room supplement in some places ( or at least the room price being mentally set by the hotels to accommodate more than one person) by the time I've worked all that out a week or so say in Siteges can come to around say £900 all in with no effort - and then I work out the £600 flight to LOS and the "cheap" hotel ( which it isn't anymore) and somehow convince myself that LOS is still better value and think fuck it and book that.  

 

THEN however after deciding to just go to LOS and to hell with it think "but it's so far to fly, a weeks hardly enough, fuck it I'll make it two weeks, then also think well there's no point travelling on a friday and being wrecked for thew weekend when I arrive so plan to leave on the Thursday and return on the Monday / Tuesday so my two weeks becomes two and a half with the added hotel costs of course and THEN you factor in the partying and boy/ drink/ boys drinks costs etc etc and low and behold your "I'll nip away for a cheap week somewhere" has turned into a three week main bloody holiday costing £3 or 4k by the time I've finished without even trying - so I guess it's maybe not the Baht rates fault and more just my own lack of sticking to the original plan ! lol -   But no, bugger it, I'll keep blaming the drop in the pound, that sounds like a MUCH better excuse for me I think :-)    

[Guest scottishguy]

I see you go through the same though processes and "self-justification" as me!!

 

Yes, you're quite right on the figures too - 2 weeks in Thailand now costs me around £4K (180,000B) or more and I don't think that's even being extravagant - I mean, I'm not staying the the Royal Cliff or anything!!

 

Where the exchange rate comes in is when you realise is that your £4K/180,000B in 2013 would have "only" been around £2400 for most of 2004/2005 and that's not even allowing for cheaper prices then - when a Junior Suite could be had for £20 a night!!!

[Guest fountainhall]

I hope maybe more than one reader is now considering South America as a possible alternative. Flight times are not much different from the UK - no idea of cost, though. After Michael has finished his reports on this month's trip around Brazil, I'll add a report on a trip I made a couple of years ago to three other countries (athough my adventures were more scenic than . . . well, Michael's!) 

[Guest]

I heard Brazil is expensive, but Michael is the one to comment on that.  Besides, I prefer Asian boys.

 

The cost look more sensible if spreading the flight cost over a 4 week stay and paying about 1200 baht for a room. In Europe it's often difficult to get acceptable accommodation for anywhere near to that. 

 

Essentially, Thailand's bubble blew up leading to large falls in their exchange rate in the 1990s.  The UK debt bubble is being patched over with some currency printing, leading to inevitable devaluation of the British Peso.

 

Long term,  just keep investing your pension funds & ISAs overseas to protect against this. 

[kokopelli]

If a pound Sterling is supposed to be a pound of silver and silver is selling at $29 USD/oz then shouldn't it be worth about 840 TB?

[Guest scottishguy]

z909 - extending the length of your Thailand trip to justify the Air Fare is exactly the sort of convoluted thinking that NIrish was talking about   and that I also fall into.

 

OK, you may get reasonable accom for 1200B but if you are paying that for an extra 2 weeks = 16800B to defray the cost of a flight, it becomes a little ridiculous, no?

 

Not to mention food/drinks/boys for those extra 14 days.

[a447a]

But if you want to think of it that way, don't forget that while you are away from home, you are not paying gas, electricity, petrol, food, drink, entertainment, etc.

That might make it a little more palatable. Just a little...

[Guest scottishguy]

Yes, dear - if it pleases you to think so....

 

 

[NIrishGuy]

Ha you've obviously been listening in to my justification meetings here in the office as everytime I debate going away I go through the above "I really shouldn't go it's getting to dear" ritual, only my office manage to agree with me and say I'm right that it is awfully expensive for two weeks away - only for me to then use your logic ( which usually starts with but if I was going out locally it would cost me £50 in taxis alone before I even bought a drink and that's half a night out paid for in sunee ) of course in reality I don't go out in said taxi for 16 nights in a row and I most certainly always spend more than £50 a night - EVERY night so my and your recouping plan doesn't quite work either it seems :-(

[NIrishGuy]

Ha you've obviously been listening in to my justification meetings here in the office as everytime I debate going away I go through the above "I really shouldn't go it's getting to dear" ritual, only my office manage to agree with me and say I'm right that it is awfully expensive for two weeks away - only for me to then use your logic ( which usually starts with but if I was going out locally it would cost me £50 in taxis alone before I even bought a drink and that's half a night out paid for in sunee ) of course in reality I don't go out in said taxi for 16 nights in a row and I most certainly always spend more than £50 a night - EVERY night so my and your recouping plan doesn't quite work either it seems :-(

[Guest]

z909 - extending the length of your Thailand trip to justify the Air Fare is exactly the sort of convoluted thinking that NIrish was talking about   and that I also fall into.

Convoluted? No

 

Of course, Berlin is cheaper as a weekend break.

However, the longer the trip, the more days the flight cost is "amortised" over.

So a 4 week trip in Thailand can be cheaper than a 4 week trip in Europe.

Particularly as hotels and paying for entertainment cost more in Europe.

 

Besides, I prefer Thailand AND it's got a very pleasant climate in the middle of the European winter.

[Guest scottishguy]

Yes, as you say - the longer the length of the trip the less of a factor the Air Fare becomes, I'm not disputing that.

 

All I'm pointing out is that whilst the "daily cost" of the Air Fare decreases when you extend the duration of your stay, the addition of other daily costs (accom, food, drinks,etc) completely wipe out any benefit you may kid yourself that you have "gained".

 

On the accom front - I normally stay at the Mercure in Pattaya. It is not extravagant (I think it's 3 or 4 star)  but I find it good quality and convenient. In August this year (when I'm going to Berlin) their double room rate is 46 Euro - hot deal, pay up front, no cancellation.

 

In Berlin I have already booked a 4 star hotel in the Nollendorfplatz area (right in the centre of the Gay area that I am interested in) for 45 Euros per night - again, prepaid.

 

Of course I could find a lesser room in Pattaya cheaper than the Mercure - but my point is that when comparing like with like there can be surprisingly little difference between accom prices in Pattaya and a European Capital City.

 

Now, moving on to drink prices which you mentioned - a 5 Euro/180B beer in a BT gogo bar is considerably dearer than a beer in a rentboy bar in Berlin which might cost 3 Euro. I admit spirits may be slightly dearer at 6 euro for a whisky in Berlin as against 5 euro in some BT go-gos - but their is really very little difference overall.

 

Yes, I could go to beer bars in Sunee and save money - but I can equally go to a small local german bar and drink very reasonably at prices equal to the Sunee beer bar (plus get more than a thimbleful of whisky and a get a decent beer)

 

So, with all due respect, when comparing like with like, I think you may be underestimating the current relative cost of a holiday in Thailand.

 

I'll give you the weather though, and the fact that some of the Thai boys can put on an appearance of being less commercial than their European counterparts !!

[Guest fountainhall]

Continuing the like with like basis, for those who visit the bars and like to take guys off a  few times a week, does that not stack the budget in favour of a longer stay in Thailand?

[Guest thaiworthy]

This is all good and well for the sake of argument as to whether the effective cost is more favorable for longer stays. Unfortunately for many, there can be no longer stays. 2-3 weeks is about an average vacation stay, so it is a moot point, since many people have jobs to return to.

[Guest scottishguy]

Thaiworthy, what's all this about work?

 

You surely know that almost everbody on these boards is a semi-retired, multi-millionaire, business guru, with rugged good looks, all their own teeth and hair,  and a ten inch cock?

[Guest]

In Berlin I have already booked a 4 star hotel in the Nollendorfplatz area (right in the centre of the Gay area that I am interested in) for 45 Euros per night - again, prepaid.

 

Of course I could find a lesser room in Pattaya cheaper than the Mercure - but my point is that when comparing like with like there can be surprisingly little difference between accom prices in Pattaya and a European Capital City.

 

Now, moving on to drink prices which you mentioned - a 5 Euro/180B beer in a BT gogo bar is considerably dearer than a beer in a rentboy bar in Berlin which might cost 3 Euro. I admit spirits may be slightly dearer at 6 euro for a whisky in Berlin as against 5 euro in some BT go-gos - but their is really very little difference overall.

Accommodation

In Bangkok & Pattaya, I can find acceptable hotels for about 1200 baht. In the majority of European cities, I need to spend over 40 Euros to get something comparable. And look a lot harder to find that bargain. Admittedly, exchange rates are narrowing this gap.

Berlin has some nice apartments available via EBAB, so this is a cheaper option than some other European cities.

 

Alcohol

I don't need to drink much in the gogo bars, so the alcohol is not a major expense. Of course, in the Berlin rent boy bars, the beer is much cheaper, but it is possible to sit there for a couple of hours and only see 2 or 3 rather rough looking rent boys. On one recent visit, pickings were so thin that one of the older customers tried chatting me up. Old? He must have been almost blind.

 

Entertainment

If you can find someone to off in Berlin, he's going to want 40 to EIGHTY Euros short time. That's often for less than 1 hour.

 

Of course it's not just cost. I enjoy the experience more in Thailand.

[kokopelli]

Thaiworthy, what's all this about work?

 

You surely know that almost everbody on these boards is a semi-retired, multi-millionaire, business guru, with rugged good looks, all their own teeth and hair,  and a ten inch cock?

I meet one of your parameters; does that count?

[Rogie]

 

 

. . . it is possible to sit there for a couple of hours and only see 2 or 3 rather rough looking rent boys. On one recent visit, pickings were so thin that one of the older customers tried chatting me up. Old? He must have been almost blind.

 

 

 

Our Z rough trade? Never!

[Guest thaiworthy]

I meet one of your parameters; does that count?

 

You have your own teeth and hair? Oh wait, that's two parameters. Then, hair-- I hope!