Whither the Red Shirts Now?

[Guest fountainhall]

I think many of us had rather assumed that a Pheu Tai victory in the recent election would be virtually a red shirt victory. Yet, I think I am right in saying not one of the new cabinet ministers comes from the red shirt faction, and the leader of the red shirts has been voicing her displeasure over this. An exiled red shirt leader has also come out against recent comments from a new Minister who seems to have suggested that the controversial lese majeste law might even be strengthened under Pheu Thai.

 

Does this mean we are likely to see a resurgence of the red shirt movement? No doubt they will be pleased at the moves to ease Thaksin senior's travel restrictions, and will be ecstatic if he is finally allowed back into the country. But with Thaksin junior saying this is not a priority (do we believe her?), could more clashes with the red shirts be on the cards in the longer term?

[Rogie]

But with Thaksin junior saying this is not a priority (do we believe her?), could more clashes with the red shirts be on the cards in the longer term?

Differences of opinion, certainly, but why would the new government want to further alienate the red shirts to the extent they took to the streets once again? We all know the government have a fine balancing act to implement. If I were to put myself in Miss Yingluck's shoes (well, I've always fancied painting my nails, and I do love shoes) I would concentrate on building up my reputation. Reputation for what? Well, she's got a great headstart, her sex for one. I've not seen her other than in photographs but to me she's a head-turner. But that's neutral, as many as will be susceptible to her 'charms' others will be varying degrees of misogynist. It would be tempting to say any woman who has risen to the top in politics is there for a reason and by extention, a survivor. But had anyone reading this heard of her even a few months ago? I certainly hadn't, so she's there because of who she is, not because she's climbed the slippery pole. Now she's in shark-infested waters she'll have to show her mettle tout de suite. She can ill afford any 'clashes' whether red shirt, yellow shirt, army, border disputes, or whatever. Thailand is going to have its work cut out to restore its reputation, both at home and abroad.

 

BANGKOK, 12 August 2011 (NNT) – ASEAN Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan has encouraged the new government to restore the image of Thailand in the ASEAN and international arenas in order to boost confidence towards the leadership of Thailand.

 

Dr Surin announced that he will seek talks with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra after she has made a policy statement, in order to push forward the role of Thailand in the ASEAN region after Thailand has lost the leadership in the past five to six years due to lack of clear and continuous policies.

 

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255408120009

 

Back to the subject of this topic - the red shirts. Whither goest they? I know not. Much easier to say what the new government need to do or should do to make up lost ground after the Abhisit years, far harder to put yourself inside the mind if a 'red shirt' in order to try and predict their course of action. I would imagine avenues of dialogue will be maintained and the governemnt will do what they can to keep them quiet, but with its room for manoevre so limited, the chances are pretty high the red shirts, or at least a section of them, will take (drastic?) action if they feel their struggles thus far have got them nowhere **

 

(** by which I mean they aren't represented in government. On the other hand they showed up the decadence of the previous administration and that surely helped to ensure its downfall).

[pong]

could be? yes of curse-anythign could be in Thaild.

But just read the daily news on thaivisa a minute ago-the reds want the only real thing any Thai is moved by; NGEUN, THAANG, MONEY, BAHT. Just like fish-or tigers-just thrown them something from time to time (big brother will advise as to how muth and how offen) and they will keep quiet. My cynic attitude is more after how long it will take before those reddies will see that old establishment has been replaced by new establishment-doing exactly the same: corruption, money grabbing, giving the best jobs to their old schoolpals, selling the ministerposts (at least: that is what the rumour mill said about those unlikely men grabbing some posts). And stand up till that.

That lady is only beautiful in the Thai way of seeing things: her skin is white-ish. As all ladies from the north have.

[Guest fountainhall]

Interesting comment, pong. Earlier today, I got my copy of the magazine The Correspondent published bimonthly by the Foreign Correspondent’s Club in Hong Kong, of which I have been a member for 30 years. It has some articles on Thailand and the recent election. One titled “Where does all the money go” attracted my attention. It deals with the loans the government makes to villages and villagers, and what happens to the money. It's interesting because most of the comments are from a village head. The following are extracts:

 

Thaksin galvanised the Thai masses to secure his first landslide win in 2001 partly with his promise to start something called the Village Fund.

 

This was a revolutionary idea, and was the first instance of a policy geared to Prof. Klausner’s new generation in the villages, rural and urban. (Prof. William Klausner teaches at Chula University’s Institute of Security and International Studies. He has lived in Thailand since the 1960s). It allocates Bt. 1 million to each of Thailand’s almost 75,000 villages; individual loans are usually a few thousand baht. One of the most quickly implemented micro-credit programmes in the world, no political party is aiming to end it.

 

Chuchart Doonyapapassorn, village head in Taai Ban Mai, Samutprakarn province, near Bangkok, says a whole lot of the Village Fund goes to waste. Some people buy fridges, cars, motor-bikes and mobile phones. A few even invest in new business, but many simply gamble it away, “There are some good points with the fund, but not many,” he said.

 

“It’s good for anyone who has a business trade or who has a financial project. But the useless part of it is the people who borrow to spend it to pay back loans. And they spend it wastefully.”

 

Mr. Doonyapapassorn says the fund is called on most heavily at times of the English football FA Cup Final, so people can lay bets. “Some borrow the money for gambling, playing cards, playing the lottery, gambling on football. But most of those who borrow the money are the housewives - they borrow for playing cards and to pay back loans. They borrow from here to pay the loan there, they borrow from somewhere else to pay the loan there, it’s always like this.”

 

The Abhisit government saw the growing addiction to easy money, and was seeking a way to compete with the Thaksin legacy. So it enlisted state banks to buy up expensive debts, and refinance them at much lower rates of interest for repayment. So some Thai villagers simply found a friend to act as a loan shark, and concocted fake debts that the state bank would then buy up.

 

“It’s a nice idea but nowadays the villagers have a lot of sneaky tactics,” said Mr. Doonyapapassorn. “They will make up a loan with someone, they pretend one is the creditor and one is the debtor, so they make up a debt. And then they transfer that debt to the state bank and the state bank advances money to pay the loan shark – but actually for a debt that does not exist,

 

“But the ones who are really in debt, the habit is in their blood. They will be in the red the whole time. They will borrow money their whole life.”

The article then goes on to quote Ammar Siamwalla, a senior economist a the Thailand Development Research Institute, who says that whilst the fund can be useful in that the money stays in the villages, the larger problems are not being tackled.

 

“Politicians know that for the Thai government to increase technological, marketing and human resources is laughable, they haven’t a clue,” he said. “But credit is easy. All you do is dish out money.”

The full article can be seen on this site. Click on the cover cartoon image and then click over to page 28

 

http://www.fcchk.org/fccweb/news.html?id=F8AA6E56D8B211F092B4B73181FF091A

[Rogie]

Whilst refreshing my memory of the origin of the red shirt protests I spotted this article in the Bangkok Post, dated 26 March 2009:

 

Red-shirt protest rally begins

 

"Today we have only one aim: to oust this government," red-shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) leader Jatuporn Prompan declared from a truck armed with huge amplifiers.

 

The protesters left Sanam Luang about 1.30pm, after a brief delay, and began marching to Government House, demanding the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

 

Protest leaders earlier delayed the start, explaining they needed to wait for supporters who went to collect their 2,000-baht gift cheques from the government in the morning.

 

Mr Abhisit was not at Government House. He attended a meeting of the House of Representatives after launching the government's 'save the nation' 2,000 baht gift cheque campaign for low-income earners at City Hall.

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/138659/red-shirt-rally-begins/page-5/

[Guest fountainhall]

Seems like more money may be on the way! Whilst PM Yingkuck has consistently been saying that her brother's return to Thailand is not a matter of priority and that there is absolutely no link between him and the new government, according to the English media today it seems this has not been conveyed to new House Speaker, Somsak Kiatsuranont. He is pushing for a fast change of the Constitution so that it is merged with the old 1997 Constitution. Seems this will enable Thaksin to come back a free man.

 

When questioned, PM Yingluck stated "The charter rewrite will be done to heed the voice of the people." Well, Madame PM, we know that this is therefore a done deal. Yet, she also denied that the amendments would help Thaksin elude his conviction and imprisonment. I wonder how many believe that is even a remote possibility? No doubt when Thaksin Snr. does finally return free and unshackled, he will show his gratitude to the people in the usual way - cash!

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Yingluck-denies-linkage-between-Thaksin-and-govt-30162999.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Ploy-to-bring-back-ThaksIn-30162971.html

 

In the meantime, Thaksin (no link with the government) Snr. will be back in Cambodia on Friday for what the media describe as talks about possible investment in oil projects. I trust he realises that if any member of the new government meets him whilst there, that person will be guilty under Thai law of consorting with a criminal. Interesting!

[TotallyOz]

I find this whole story fascinating. It is what movies are made of. I hope that they do make a movie of this family as I would love to see it.

 

Who didn't expect this to be a done deal this year? Does he have to wait till 2012? What are the odds?

[Guest fountainhall]

I'll make you a little bet that it won't be this year. Yingluck will have to show some pretty fine-tuned political skills to get some worried people on to her side and defang others, people like the present army chief, like Newin Chidchob whose faction defected from the old Thai Rak Thai Party and so enabled the Democrats to gain their majority in the last parliament, to say nothing of the yellow shirt factions - and they are split now.

[Guest fountainhall]

Not surprisingly, the law has once again been brought into the Thaksin issue. The Democrats are trying to get the new Foreign Minister and Thaksin-ally impeached (this impeachment business is starting to sound like an old LP stuck in a groove!).

 

The move came after Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, confirmed that Tokyo had decided to issue a visa for the ex-premier Thaksin after receiving a request from the Thai government. Mr Yukio was quoted as saying that "the Thai government has taken a policy of not prohibiting former prime minister Thaksin from visiting any country and requested that Japan issue a visa."

 

Nipit Intarasombat, head of the opposition party's legal team, said the foreign minister's press interviews indicate the minister had engaged a policy before the Pheu Thai-led government had delivered its policy statement to parliament. Mr Surapong's actions had breached Section 176 of the constitution, he said . . .

 

Mr Nipit said the party's legal team had drafted an impeachment document and would collect signatures from 125 MPs before submitting it to the Senate on Aug 22. The impeachment bid would be sent to the National Anti-Corruption Commission if it is approved by three-fifths of the Senate, or 90 senators.

 

The Democrats also filed a complaint with Phaya Thai police against Mr Surapong, accusing him of helping Thaksin escape a court detention order.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/252446/democrats-move-to-impeach-surapong

 

Gaining 60% of the Senate votes would seem to be an exercise in futility. But other accusations that “Mr Surapong . . . said on several occasions that the visit of exiled ("no link with the government") Thaksin's visit would benefit Thailand” appears to contradict yet again his boss’s many statements on the issue.

 

In the meantime, it seems there’s an organisation titled “Civil Network against Thaksin’s Corruption Pardon”. This lot has been protesting outside the Japanese Embassy against Tokyo’s decision to issue Thaksin’s special visa.

 

"This group calls on Japanese people who love justice to come out and ask their government for the truth. The money that Thaksin gives to the earthquake and tsunami affected people comes from corruption and he is a fugitive."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/252376/anti-thaksin-protest-outside-japan-embassy

[Guest fountainhall]

The controversy surrounding who actually enabled Thaksin (“no link with the government”) Snr. to visit in Japan continues. Japanese immigration law is quite specific: all foreigners convicted of any crime carryng a sentence of more than one year are prohibited from entering the country. Thaksin of course has a two-year sentence hanging on his shoulders.

 

At first the Thai government seemed to imply that the Japanese themselves had waived the rule. Not so, said the Japanese. The waiver was granted after representations from Thailand. The issue of ‘face’ looms large in Japanese political circles, just as much as it does here in Thailand. So I have no idea who is speaking the truth and who is lying.

 

Last week, the Democratic Party filed a police complaint against Foreign Minister Surapong accusing him of facilitating his old buddy Thaksin’s entry into Japan. But in this country, no charge goes without a counter charge, and consequently Surapong has now lodged a counter-charge against the Democrats whom he accuses of defaming him and giving the police false information. And yet again, a request for dissolution of a party is made to the Election Commission.

 

"The Democrats' action damaged my reputation, since I did not help former prime minister Thaksin visit Japan," Surapong said.

 

"I will lodge a complaint with the Election Commission asking it to dissolve the party for using smear tactics against me."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/08/23/national/Thaksin-enters-Japan-amid-controversy-30163376.html

 

When such petty childishness crops up with such frequency in Thai politics (and no party has a monopoly on this), it often appears that the country languishes in the politics of the kindergarten, not in an assembly of supposedly grown-up individuals. Thai politicians generally present a pretty dreadful example of democracy at work to the young of the country.

 

On another front, though, The Nation yesterday reported that a recent ABAC poll claims to have found that Thaksin’ Snr’s activites allied to the government’s push to amend the charter are two critical issues that could cause the collapse of the government! 52% of those polled “voiced concern that the charter rewrite could lead to political chaos,” whilst 53% opposed the push to amend it. Some even said they were ready to stage a protest!

 

The limited coverage of the poll, 2,193 respondents from 17 selected provinces has a 7% margin of error. Unfortunately it does not seem like a totally random sample to me and so the findings are inevitably suspect.

 

Yet “almost seven in 10 people wanted Thaksin to stop meddling with the government in order to allow Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to exert her leadership.”

 

Of course, PM Yingkuck has consistently claimed she listens to advice from all sides, including her brother. Yet she then makes stupid statements like this one: “My brother knows the prevailing mood of the people, this is why he has never been involved in politics!"

 

And meanwhile, convicted felon (“no link with the government”) Thaksin has now landed in Japan. Long used to acting out the ‘more sinned against that sinning’ role, no doubt he will garnish heaps of praise for what he will donate to the tsunami victims and the country’s reconstruction, whilst inwardly splitting his sides laughing at how he is yet again able to manipulate Thailand’s political and justice systems.