Autopsies: Different Views On What The Democrats Did Wrong

[stevenkesslar]

I'm starting a thread to post autopsies about what Democrats did wrong.   I'll call this one the "The One Percent Hope" autopsy, for reasons I'll outline below.

I personally believe in the "Someone In The Crowd" theory of how Democrats will fix this problem.  The best example is the post-2012 Mitt Romney autopsy.  Republicans decided they needed to stop telling Latinos to "self-deport."  They needed to find a candidate who was friendlier to Hispanics.  And then came Trump and "Mexican rapists" in 2016.  Despite the fact that he won, Trump did about as shitty as most Republicans usually do among Latinos.  And now it's 2024, and look at where we are.  So maybe the Republicans stumbled on the right guy after all.  He certainly was not the GOP Establishment's first choice.

We'll know the right person comes along - Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump - when it happens.  I cite those four because they all won two terms.  While it will involve policies, it will be more about the person and how he (no such luck for she) resonates with voters.  Trump has clearly taken over the Republican Party.  Like the other three, he is a conviction politician.  As W. said, you may not agree with me.  But at least you know where I stand.

So who better to start an autopsy with than a young, and hot, doctor:  John from Tennessee:

This is typical of Mark Halperin's 2Way.   What I like best about it is that the venue does attract lots of people who voted every which way, or not at all.  They are encouraged and able to talk politely to each other.  I'm pretty sure the venue attracts people who are more centrist than extreme in their views, regardless of which candidate they supported. 

Which leads to the thing I like least about this venue:  it often feels like a celebration of cynicism.  A lot of Halperin's followers don't like either candidate, or either party.  So it often feels like an echo chamber of how bad things suck.  Halperin himself has a big axe to grind with the mainstream media he used to be a star of.  John, earnest and still clinging to hope, fits right in.

The comments on this video (if you go to the YouTube page) are interesting to read.  They are overwhelmingly positive.  A lot of people say John speaks for me.  One says he speaks for "millions" of voters.  Which is probably true, if we are talking about Millennials and Gen Z. 

The two two-term Presidents that I came of age under were Reagan and Clinton.  Both men left office having greatly restored faith in government.   In 1988 and 2000, just under half of Americans felt we could trust the federal government to do the right thing most of the time, compared to about 25 % when both men entered office.  It's been all downhill from there.  As John mentions: 9/11, the Iraq War, the financial crisis and "the Greenspan economy", then the pandemic and inflation.  Rising income inequality and a working class that has at best been stuck for decades.

Unlike Boomers and Gen X, who came of age under Presidents that somehow got people to trust government more, Millennials and Gen Z have always lived in a nation where most people have little or no faith in government.  What's striking to me about almost every Millennials and Zoomer I know is their lack of faith in just about every institution.  Including of course political parties.  The phrase that most resonated for me is "the Greenspan economy".  As in, reward bad Wall Street (or Trump?) behavior, and let them drive the economy over the cliff.  And then bail them out.  That has to be at the top of the list of what broke faith in US government, even above W.'s Iraq War.  And it happened under Obama.

I think the comments accurately reflect how the seeming multitudes of disappointed or pissed young voters hurt Harris.  John is probably not in the group of Zoomers and Millennials who can't afford to buy a home, or struggle to pay for rent or child care.  But the feeling that nothing works, and voting for Harris won't do any good, is a recipe for Trumpism.  Chris Christie speculated in the last weeks of the campaign that Trump was intentionally trying to make everything seem like shit, just to depress turnout among potential Harris supporters.  Why have hope?

John wants to believe in someone like Obama, and once did.  But if we're just going to be cynical, why not vote for somebody like RFK who can't win?  While meanwhile the true believers elect a Wrecking Ball in Chief?  John's up for it, since it at least gives him a 1 % Hope.  Maybe Bobby Kennedy can do some good.  My category for this is that desperate people do desperate things.  Or they just don't vote.

The idea of reluctant Trump supporters having a 1 % Hope actually gives me hope, but in a weird way.  It immediately reminded me of Dick Cheney's One Percent Doctrine.  Meaning if there is a 1 % chance that Iraq has WMD, we have to treat it as a certainty that they have WMD.   That did not end well.  The 1 % Hope among people like John that maybe something good will come out of putting some weird mix of Donald Trump and Bobby Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard together sounds about as far fetched.  I think it has a 99 % chance of not ending well, just like Iraq did.  Trump will fire them if and when they don't do what he wants, most likely.  By 2026, like in 2018, people like John will probably be eager to move on to something, and someone, else.

It made me laugh when Kristen, the Republican, argued that Trump - unlike Democrats - met people who were angry at "corporate elites" where they were at in 2016.  I guess giving tax breaks to billionaires and corporations is the next best thing to Bernie Sanders, huh?  😉  That sure taught corporate elites and Trump donors a lesson in humility!   If this is our 1 % Hope, I just don't think this ends well.

John's lack of hope in Harris also speaks to what is Kamala Harris's fatal flaw.  I've voted for her every time she was on my ballot in California.  If she runs for Governor of California, I'll happily vote for her again.  But I would never accuse her of being Paul Wellstone or Jeff Merkley, two conviction politicians I knew well when they were nobodies.  Both of them managed to win US Senate seats by exuding authenticity long before they ran for anything.  And convincing people they would fight for them.  I don't think Harris has ever had that, or ever will. John certainly did not feel the vibe.

Halperin's 2Way was loaded with voters who did not like Trump, but also did not feel they knew what Harris really stood for.  Or, worse, that she was just a phony.  Which is a shame.  Because she is a great role model.  And she had a bunch of modest but pragmatic policies that would have helped people in lots of small ways.  Which is maybe what Democrats need in an era when we are a country split right down the middle. Had she won, her caution and fluidity might have worked well in a political environment where you win by inches and compromise.  But it seems like it was not an asset in persuading voters.

If this were 1988, and she were running to replace a popular two term President like Bush 41 was, her perceived lack of conviction probably wouldn't matter.  In 2024, when she had to outrace a wall of lava that would have buried Biden alive, I do think it hurt her.   What Democrats need most now is someone like Clinton and Obama with convictions, who can put a new coalition together.  I don't think that person has to be White, or male.  But I think we now know if they ain't convincing to the working class, we ain't gonna be able to win.  

And since I named what I see as Harris's worst quality, I'll end with saying what I am grateful to her for.  I think the money, volunteers, and energy she brought in saved four of five US Senators that could be saved.  Bob Casey was the one close call that didn't make it.  I think Gallego, Rosen, Slotkin, and our lesbian sister Baldwin would have all lost with Biden on the top of the ticket. 

As of right now Democrat Derek Tram has taken a 40 vote lead in one of the few remaining House races, in Orange County.  Has anyone else noticed that this "landslide" is nothing like the Reagan landslides of 1980 and 1984, including in the former heart of Reagan country?  If Tram ekes out a narrow win, it means Democrats will actually gain one House seat from their 2022 performance.  Not the victory I hoped for.  But so much for a Trump landslide.

[Moses]

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I'm starting a thread to post autopsies about what Democrats did wrong.

 

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

And then came Trump

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

or Trump

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

recipe for Trumpism

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

campaign that Trump

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

reluctant Trump supporters

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

elites and Trump donors

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

mix of Donald Trump

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Trump will fire them

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

that Trump

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

who did not like Trump

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

a Trump landslide

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Trump has clearly taken over the Republican Party.

Lemming, this is classic pseudo-democrat behavior: they promise one thing and do another.

"Trump" - 14 times,
"Harris" - 8 times.

Are you sure you does "autopsies about what Democrats did wrong" ?

if so, please start from point #1 : they do wrong person's autopsies - Trump isn't Dem.

Because above is not an autopsy, but a Democrat's cry after the trauma of Trump's victory

[Moses]

What AI thinks about that catastrophe in US:

[Moses]

[Moses]

So, here is real autopsy: 

[Moses]

[Moses]

 

Enough? 

All above - what AI of Chat GPT thinks about current issue.

[stevenkesslar]

7 hours ago, Moses said:

What AI thinks about that catastrophe in US:

Your posts are a bit confusing.

I'm not sure what the word count of "Trump" or "Biden" has to do with anything.   But I agree with you that, right now, an autopsy does and in fact should start with "Democrats' cry after the trauma of Trump's victory."

In terms of "Democrat's cry", I'll briefly restate what I spent paragraphs on in another post.  Black women in particular are hurt, and pissed, and feel betrayed.  So, to quote Democratic stalwart Donna Brazile, I think it is a good time to sit with that.   

I'll add this, which I didn't say in the other post.   Like me, several of my White Gay male friends, who all voted for Harris, have heard the "angry Black woman" thing from friends and family members who voted for Trump.  Meaning they apparently were okay with Trump being a convicted felon, a rapist, a racist, a liar, and a narcissist.   But when they looked at Harris and her "joy vibe" they saw ........................... wait for it .................................. AN ANGRY BLACK WOMAN.   

My simplistic but true read of US political history is that positive social change often if not always starts in the Black community.   So I have no idea where this is going.  With movements, including MAGA, you never do.  But this is going to be a rough ride for Democrats, but also for everybody in MAGA.   Because at the end of the day, when Black women are saying they are pissed at the White women and Latinos who we thought would protect us from the racist and rapist, what they are saying is they are pissed that the rapist and racist was allowed to win.  Because lots of White women and Latino men said I can accept this.   It's okay. 

So if White men in the MAGA movement somehow think the Black community is all in on MAGA right now, they don't have a fucking clue.  It's more like MAGA is the rapist and racist who got away with it.  And this is who are.  So we have to be clear that America just said, this is who we really are.  We are Trump. Trump is America.

Honestly, I find that a more appealing alternative to W.   So this is bad, for sure, to me.  But it is not as bad as it gets.  We're not having a debate about fake WMD so we can launch a genocide in Iraq.  Putin and Bibi The Baby Killer are the genocidal monsters on the world stage right now.  I'm guessing lots of countries will be relieved if America is so focused on itself that it at least doesn't launch enough Iraq War.  

Meanwhile, I'm going to keep repeating that I see 2024 as a victory for multi-racial democracy.  It makes perfect sense to me that Black women in particular are pissed at Latino men.  But at the end of the day people voted as they damn well pleased.  Which is not what happens in Genocide World.  Democracy is messy.  Democrats now have all kinds of reasons to think about how we appeal more to the Black working class, the Latino working class, and the White working class.   

At the end of the day, Black women who are pissed see Trump as the racist and rapist who never should have won.  So I wouldn't wait for them to run to MAGA for solutions.  And when Trump offers his hog feed of tax cuts for billionaires and cuts the health insurance of Black families, many Black women will say, "You voted for this.  This is what you said you want America to be."

I read all your posts, and it shows both the beauty and stupidity of AI.

Right out of the gate, AI told us that "Kamala Harris received about 68 million votes in 2024."  That's off by only about 6 million votes, and counting.   Oops!

It makes me feel relieved.   I worry that when AI gets smart enough, it will make Genocide Man and his mass slaughter look like a peacenik by comparison.  World War III could be AI against the entire human race.  So it is comforting to know that AI is still basically really stupid.

That said, that's a great list of all kinds of reasons Democrats lost.  I loved reading it.  It makes my posts look brief by comparison.  Thank you!

[Moses]

4 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Your posts are a bit confusing.

I'm not sure what the word count of "Trump" or "Biden" has to do with anything.   But I agree with you that, right now, an autopsy does and in fact should start with "Democrats' cry after the trauma of Trump's victory."

In terms of "Democrat's cry", I'll briefly restate what I spent paragraphs on in another post.  Black women in particular are hurt, and pissed, and feel betrayed.  So, to quote Democrat stalwart Donna Brazile, I think it is a good time to sit with that.   

I'll add this, which I didn't say in the other post.   Like me, several of my White Gay male friends, who all voted for Harris, have heard the "angry Black woman" thing from friends and family members who voted for Trump.  Meaning they apparently were okay with Trump being a convicted felon, a rapist, a racist, a liar, and a narcissist.   But when they looked at Harris and her "joy vibe" they saw ........................... wait for it .................................. AN ANGY BLACK WOMAN.   

My simplistic but true read of US political history is that positive social change often if not always starts in the Black community.   So I have no idea where this is going.  With movements, including MAGA, you never do.  But this is going to be a rough ride, including for everybody in MAGA.   Because at the end of the day, by saying we are pissed at the White women and Latinos who we thought would protect us from the racist and rapist, what many Blacks are saying is they are pissed that the rapist and racist was allowed to win, because White women and Latino men said I can accept this.   It's okay. 

So if White men in the MAGA movement somehow think the Black community is all in on MAGA right now, they don't have a fucking clue.  It's more like MAGA is the rapist and racist who got away with it.  And this is who are.  So we have to be clear that America just said, this is who we really are.  We are Trump. Trump is America.

That said, I read all your posts, and it shows both the beauty and stupidity of AI.

Right out of the gate, AI told us that "Kamala Harris received about 68 million votes in 2024."  That's off by only about 6 million votes, and counting.   Oops!

It makes me feel relieved.   I worry that when AI gets smart enough, it will make Genocide Man and his mass slaughter look like a peacenik by comparison.  World War III could be AI against the entire human race.  So it is comforting to know that AI is still basically really stupid.

That said, that's a great list of all kinds of reasons Democrats lost.  I loved reading it.  It makes my posts look brief by comparison.  Thank you!

[Moses]

7 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

I'm not sure what the word count of "Trump" or "Biden" has to do with anything.

I will tell you: you are fighting "against Resps" instead of "fighting for Dems". Whole campaign Dems did the same - they spend a lot of time for to advertise Trump instead of advertising own party. And now, after election, they do the same - they discussing Trump more, than own mistakes.

Specially for you new thread:  

 

[stevenkesslar]

12 minutes ago, Moses said:

Again, thanks for making me feel better about how stupid AI is.

It obviously could not pick up that I was citing what lots of Black leaders are saying on the internet.  Which is probably a very watered down version of what is being said in private.   

So it is fair enough to call it a personal attack.  But if AI were a community organizer, it would understand that this is really about coalition politics.  And whether members of the coalition can trust each other, and count on each other.  Or whether one group is going to feel betrayed by the other.  You don't have that in Genocide World.   Putin just kills the people who threaten his power.

Michael Steel, disgruntled former Black Republican, hit the nail on the head when he said that Republicans who are gloating about how the Democratic Party is going to implode better be careful what they wish for.  He referred to MAGA as a "zombie" that is basically the walking dead.  I think he is right.  They may be able to win 49.9 % of the vote, or something like that.  In an election when people were pissed and itching to throw out the incumbent.

I think Steel is right that is the Republican Party stood for something America really wanted, they could have won in a landslide.  Like they did in 1980.   The fact that this is the best they could do in a year that should have been theirs does suggest that the other thing Steel said is correct.  If and when the Democrats get their shit together, taking out MAGA will not be a problem. 

It just got much easier.  Because already the focus has shifted completely to how what Trump is doing does not reflect what America actually wanted.  America did not vote for more chaos.  And yet, here it comes.

 

 

[Moses]

9 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

You don't have that in Genocide World.   Putin just kills the people who threaten his power.

You have no even one clue what's going on here. Because your sources of information are the same sources that told you "Kamala will win, no doubts!", like few months before it they told you "Biden will win, no doubts!".

Now you know how much can you trust them. Or you still blindly trust to them even after such catastrophe?

 

[stevenkesslar]

14 minutes ago, Moses said:

You have no even one clue what's going on here. Because your sources of information are the same sources that told you "Kamala will win, no doubts!", like few months before it they told you "Biden will win, no doubts!".

Now you know how much can you trust them. Or you still blindly trust to them even after such catastrophe?

 

Actually, the polls were quite close all through the election.   And they came closer than in the last few cycles to predicting the result.   The last RCP average was literally a dead tie: 48.6/48.7.   As of now Trump is winning by 1.8 %.  But that will be a bit less when all the votes from California are counted.

I did think Harris would win.  That wasn't based on the polls.  Obviously I was wrong, and your Genocide Pal on the forum is loving it.  I'm hoping he fully enjoys his gloating and cruelty.

And there you go again, trying to deny you are a Genocide Freak, and there is no genocide.

You can tell me.  Are there not North Koreans coming to Russia to fight?  Is that just a lie?   Are there not poor men from poor regions of the rotten and collapsing Federation being sent to Ukraine to be processed into meat because their poor families will make more money than the man could have made in years or decades?   Are these lies?  How many Russians have been processed into meat so that their families could put food on the table?  Tens of thousands?  Hundreds of thousands?  Millions?

The contrast in the US should be quite clear, even to a Genocide Freak like you who knows shit about democracy and comes here to deny genocide.  Some Blacks are pissed at some Latinos because they voted their pocketbook, hoping that electing Trump would somehow make higher prices go away.  I agree with the Blacks who are pissed.  But that is how democracy works. 

Latino men don't have to, or want to, go to Ukraine to be processed into meat so their families can put food on the table.  That only happens in Genocide World. Lucky you!

 

[Moses]

27 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

And there you go again, trying to deny you are a Genocide Freak, and there is no genocide.

You can tell me.  Are there not North Koreans coming to Russia to fight?  Is that just a lie?   Are there not poor men from poor regions of the rotten and collapsing Federation being sent to Ukraine to be processed into meat because their poor families will make more money than the man could have made in years or decades?   Are these lies?  How many Russians have been processed into meat so that their families could put food on the table?  Tens of thousands?  Hundreds of thousands?  Millions?

As I told you already: you have no idea what's going here and continue to repeat mantras from your mass medias to which you blindly trusting.