Biggest winners and losers

[EmmetK]

So many choices, but here are my top 5 in each category:

Winners:

1. President Trump (of course)
2. The Supreme Court (Trump to replace the aging conservatives with young aggressive conservatives and Sotomayor is 70 (with multiple health issues including morbid obesity and Type 1 diabetes), no guarantee she will survive for more years. Trump will cement a conservative court for the next 30 years.
3. Black and Hispanic males. They made the difference in all of the swing states to propel President Trump to victory. They will be rewarded.
4. Benjamin Netanyahu. He will now be unrestrained in dealing with the various terrorists that threaten the existence of Israel.
5a. The American people.
5b. Dementia Joe Biden. Suddenly he doesn't look so bad. He couldn't have possibly fared worse than Cackles.

Losers:

1. Cackling Kamala. Lost an election by 5 million votes to a twice impeached convicted felon.
2. The Hollywood elite. These overpaid pampered prima donnas have no concern about the average American trying to deal with Biden/Harris high prices and open borders.
3. The mainstream media. The fake news did everything they could to put their collective fingers on the scale to tip this election to Cackles. Fortunately it didn't work.
4. The Iranian Ayatollahs. They and their terrorist proxies will now face the full force of the IDF with America's full blessing.
5. Alan Lichtman. America's new "Village Idiot"

TRUMP2024
MAGA

 

 

[EmmetK]

Can we add all Trump-hating members of the Gay Guides Politics forum to the list of Big losers?

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[Moses]

2 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Can we add all Trump-hating members of the Gay Guides Politics forum to the list of Big losers?

You may start from my nickname.

Trump won, but this not make him better. I afraid this will make him even more worse narcist and egoist, more impulsive, more authoritarian. Trump is just one of two worst candidates for Oval room what America got at current election cycle.

[Suckrates]

Just like Fake News,  what supporters BELIEVE doesnt make it true.   Trump hoodwinked these Americans who believed he was a strong man fighting for THEM...   He was fighting for thier VOTE so HE could stay out of jail.    Now that he won, he has no use for them, and everything he has planned will NOT make their lives better.  But they need to go thru the fire to live the Reality.   For the most part Latinos are "immigrants" in Trumps mind, and a group on his ICE hitlist.   They can remember their vote with fondness while ICE is dragging their loved ones out of their home by their ankles..... Then, they can celebrate his "strongman" persona.  🤣

This political movement Trump thinks he built will backfire in every supporters faces, and only then will I be comforted by THEIR pain. 

[EmmetK]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

....Trump hoodwinked these Americans who believed he was a strong man fighting for THEM...  

Once again, you need to be schooled.
Trump is no Rasputin. He has no spell over the American voters. Do you think 81 million Americans (and still counting) are fools?
Trump had a powerful message to America's working class who are sick and tired of seeing this country being invaded by tens of millions of illegals who then were provided with free housing, clothing, medical, education, and other goodies all at the taxpayer's dime. They are sick and tired of being told how to vote and how they must think by the fake news media and Hollywood elitists who don't care that the price of butter, eggs, etc. has gone up 23% during the four years of the Biden/Harris catastrophic term in office.  Americans were tired of being told by the dems that if they oppose DEI or open borders, they are racist. And tired of being told that if they are against men in girls bathrooms or men competing against girls in sports, they are homophobic or transphobic, or some new type of phobic.
Americans were simply fed up with the dems.
Trump will bring the Golden Age to our country. He will make America great again!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[Bingo T Dog]

26 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Once again, you need to be schooled.
Trump is no Rasputin. He has no spell over the American voters. Do you think 81 million Americans (and still counting) are fools?
Trump had a powerful message to America's working class who are sick and tired of seeing this country being invaded by tens of millions of illegals who then were provided with free housing, clothing, medical, education, and other goodies all at the taxpayer's dime. They are sick and tired of being told how to vote and how they must think by the fake news media and Hollywood elitists who don't care that the price of butter, eggs, etc. has gone up 23% during the four years of the Biden/Harris catastrophic term in office.  Americans were tired of being told by the dems that if they oppose DEI or open borders, they are racist. And tired of being told that if they are against men in girls bathrooms or men competing against girls in sports, they are homophobic or transphobic, or some new type of phobic.
Americans were simply fed up with the dems.
Trump will bring the Golden Age to our country. He will make America great again!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

 He has a spell over many!!!!!!!!!  The second photo is a policeman held down while a taser is applied to his neck.  Your proud J6 HOSTAGES.

[EmmetK]

2 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

 He has a spell over many!!!!!!!!!  The second photo is a policeman held down while a taser is applied to his neck.  Your proud J6 HOSTAGES.

Thanks for that pic of true American patriots, who, like the Tea Party revolutionaries in Boston, fought to defend and preserve the ideals of democracy! Please continue to share it on other threads. It gives me a warm feeling.
January 20th, 2025 will be their day of liberation from the tyranny of the Deep State. They will be celebrating, while Looney Liz Cheney will be on suicide watch!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[Bingo T Dog]

15 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Thanks for that pic of true American patriots, who, like the Tea Party revolutionaries in Boston, fought to defend and preserve the ideals of democracy! Please continue to share it on other threads. It gives me a warm feeling.
January 20th, 2025 will be their day of liberation from the tyranny of the Deep State. They will be celebrating, while Looney Liz Cheney will be on suicide watch!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

When they get released they'll be appearing at BUFF DADDYS and SPUNK in NYC.  Be sure to go see them.  Be generous.  DON'T HAGGLE LIKE ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!! 

[Bingo T Dog]

Answer and Explanation: No, no one was killed during the Boston Tea Party. The only damage done was to the chests holding the tea and the tea itself,  AT THE TRUMP INSURRECTION PARTY 9 PEOPLE DIED AND SEVERAL HUNDRED WOUNDED. 

[KYTOP]

 

I am a Centrist, I think your list is fair to a certain extent. Let me add a few, from my viewpoint of course.

Winners: Hopefully the US economy since I do believe that is why most people voted for Trump. Governor Newson of California, Governor Braesher of Kentucky, and others, who can now continue with their plans run for President in 2028, that had been sidetracked with Biden dropping out. Democracy, the people spoke and surprised us all AGAIN. WE the People is to never be underestimated or taken for granted.

Losers: Pelosi, Clooney, Obama and all the other Elite Democrats that stabbed Biden in the back in favor of Harris. Liz Cheney, I hope to never hear from her on anything again. 

As for the January 6th preachers, The MAJORITY of Americans have moved on. That horse is dead, stop beating it , it just won't work. This Election showed that. 

I would like to refer some people to the old Children's Book Henny Penny. The Sky is NOT falling and our democracy is not failing. 

 

[Suckrates]

21 minutes ago, KYTOP said:

 

I am a Centrist, I think your list is fair to a certain extent. Let me add a few, from my viewpoint of course.

Winners: Hopefully the US economy since I do believe that is why most people voted for Trump. Governor Newson of California, Governor Braesher of Kentucky, and others, who can now continue with their plans run for President in 2028, that had been sidetracked with Biden dropping out. Democracy, the people spoke and surprised us all AGAIN. WE the People is to never be underestimated or taken for granted.

Losers: Pelosi, Clooney, Obama and all the other Elite Democrats that stabbed Biden in the back in favor of Harris. Liz Cheney, I hope to never hear from her on anything again. 

As for the January 6th preachers, The MAJORITY of Americans have moved on. That horse is dead, stop beating it , it just won't work. This Election showed that. 

I would like to refer some people to the old Children's Book Henny Penny. The Sky is NOT falling and our democracy is not failing. 

 

 

YET,  give Trump the 2-4 years.... It might be the ONLY thing he WILL accomplish ?  

[EmmetK]

18 minutes ago, KYTOP said:

 

I am a Centrist, I think your list is fair to a certain extent. Let me add a few, from my viewpoint of course.

Winners: Hopefully the US economy since I do believe that is why most people voted for Trump. Governor Newson of California, Governor Braesher of Kentucky, and others, who can now continue with their plans run for President in 2028, that had been sidetracked with Biden dropping out. Democracy, the people spoke and surprised us all AGAIN. WE the People is to never be underestimated or taken for granted.

Losers: Pelosi, Clooney, Obama and all the other Elite Democrats that stabbed Biden in the back in favor of Harris. Liz Cheney, I hope to never hear from her on anything again. 

As for the January 6th preachers, The MAJORITY of Americans have moved on. That horse is dead, stop beating it , it just won't work. This Election showed that. 

I would like to refer some people to the old Children's Book Henny Penny. The Sky is NOT falling and our democracy is not failing. 

 

As a fellow centrist, I appreciate your comments.

And if the US economy for the next four years will be anything like the stock market gains in the last 3 days, I think there is great reason for optimism.

I'm not sure who the dems hope they would appeal to by trotting out Liz Cheney who is despised by both the left and the right. She didn't help and more than those B-list Hollywood elitists. In fact, they likely hurt far more than they helped.

And President Trump more than anyone is looking to put Jan 6th behind us. That is exactly why he will be pardoning all of the J6 patriots.
As you say, it's time to move on!

Trump2024
MAGA

[Suckrates]

1 minute ago, EmmetK said:

As a fellow centrist, I appreciate your comments.

And if the US economy for the next four years will be anything like the stock market gains in the last 3 days, I think there is great reason for optimism.

I'm not sure who the dems hope they would appeal to by trotting out Liz Cheney who is despised by both the left and the right. She didn't help and more than those B-list Hollywood elitists. In fact, they likely hurt far more than they helped.

And President Trump more than anyone is looking to put Jan 6th behind us. That is exactly why he will be pardoning all of the J6 patriots.
As you say, it's time to move on!

 

 

The stock market is behaving exactly as it should, and has after EVERY election.   It reacts to hopes of optimism.  Wait and see what happens when it faces the reality of TRUMP.  And keep in mind the market was running HIGH even before the election, in BIDENS economy......

Of course Trump to put Jan 6th behind him...  He beat the justice system and avoided jail.   I'm confident in the next 4 years, there will be PLENTY of new reasons to imprison him which will have nothing to do with the "official acts" bullshit.....In or out of office, TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL, even if 51% of Americans dont care about that. 

[Bingo T Dog]

10 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

And President Trump more than anyone is looking to put Jan 6th behind us. That is exactly why he will be pardoning all of the J6 patriots.
As you say, it's time to move on!

Will Trump "move on" from his hatred of the J6 commission and Liz Cheney?  Will Trump destroy his enemy list and "move on"?  

[Bingo T Dog]

Will @EmmetK ever "move on" from his hatred of The View?  Will emmetk ever move on at all?????????????????????????

[EmmetK]

41 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

Will @EmmetK ever "move on" from his hatred of The View?  Will emmetk ever move on at all?????????????????????????

Only when @Bingo T Dog moves on from msn.com....

That means NEVER!   LOL.

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[stevenkesslar]

On 11/7/2024 at 9:56 AM, EmmetK said:

Thanks for that pic of true American patriots, who, like the Tea Party revolutionaries in Boston, fought to defend and preserve the ideals of democracy!

 

You're sick.  Deeply cruel.  You are.  What a mean-spirited jerk. 

You and @Moses belong together.  He comes here to defend genocide and divide people,  You come here to say beating the shit out of a cop defending democracy is patriotism.   That is cruel and sick.   Susie Wiles would be ashamed of having to explain away cruel, sick statements like you make all the time.

What will you guys do this inauguration day?  Kill some cops and call it patriotism?  This is cruel and sick.   You are already over reaching.  At least you are not promoting genocide - yet.   When Trump and Bibi The Baby Killer start levelling Gaza, you'll be the Genocide Clown, no doubt.  Explaining away mass slaughter.

The part of this that feels worst is that Trump got away with being a felon and criminal.  Lots of people, especially Latinos, overlooked that.  As well as his racist and sexist jokes and behavior.  The polls say that loud and clear.  Because they were pissed about inflation and immigration. 

It doesn't change the fact that Trump unleashed his mob on cops at the Capitol.  Or that the Republican Secretary of State in Georgia and his wife were getting MAGA death threats because Trump tried to steal the 2020 election.   Trump won by way less than Biden did in 2020 - maybe about half, when all the votes are counted.  Democrats have grace, and care about democracy.   You say that beating the shit out of cops defending democracy is patriotism.  That is cruel and sick.

I'll think of how cruel and sick you are when I'm having wine in LaJolla with my Trump supporting niece.   She is a conservative who doesn't like the immigration and inflation.   She's a kind person, and I love her.  You represent the cruel wing of the MAGA party.  Congratulations!  You are an embodiment of how and why Trump will probably repulse people very quickly, just like he did from 2017 to 2020. 

Enjoy your cruelty while you can.  If and when Trump unleashes his cruelty, like by deporting the legally American children of "the illegals", the cruelty will repulse the majority of America.  Especially Latino men and women, who oppose the idea.  Savor your cruelty while you can.

And this is not an ad hominem attack. It is cruel and sick to defend beating police to overturn an election Trump lost in 2020 by twice as much as Harris just did in 2024.  Cruel   Sick  YOU!

The part of this election that feels best is that Democrats like me got what we wanted - a vibrant multi-racial liberal democracy.   There is no question Latino men changed the outcome of this election.  There is no question they did it based on their pocketbooks.  Biden and Harris now join almost every Western leader in the world who COVID+inflation got fired.  Including Trump, ironically, who got fired in 2020 because of COVID.

 

So if we want to talk about winners in this election, and not just be cruel sick fucks, can we give a shout out for Latino and Black men?   And let's start by applauding Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi.   

The Republican Party used to the be the White guys who said Blacks can't even vote.  Now one of Trump's pals is Black conservative House member Byron Donalds.  That's change!  When Democrats elected Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi engineered a massive wave of women who rejected Trump in 2018 and brought in Democratic House members of every race and gender, that was change!  And this is not me saying it.  Kevin McCarthy said repeatedly he realized the Republican Party could not survive as a party of old White men.  So he went out and recruited guys like Donalds.  And then McCarthy got fired by his own team.  LOL.  Talks about losers!

So I'm happy to lose this one, to the extent it means we have a more vibrant and fair multi-racial liberal democracy.  Trump has never proven he actually cares about that, with his crimes and cruel sexism and racist jokes and vicious cop beatings.  Let's see whether he can change.  I ain't holding my breath.  But I do know what every Latino in America wants is more tax breaks for billionaires, and a mass deportation of legally American children - or at least their parents!  Cruel. Sick.  

If we want to talk about why Trump won, I encourage everyone to watch the clip above from 34:00 to 40:00.  There is something cool about watching a Black Democrat ask a sitting Black conservative US House member to explain what Trump and MAGA offer Black (or Latino) men.  This is not the America of Strom Thurmond and George Wallace!  It is not the "Make America Sick And Cruel Again" Party!

Donalds is eloquent, and hard not to like.  His answer is great, as far as it goes.  The key line is that lots of Black men remember making money when Trump was POTUS.   And with higher prices and ESPECIALLY higher rent they have been struggling.  Clearly, for Black men who voted for Trump, that trumped their concerns about Trump the racist landlord and Trump and the Central Park Five.  That pretty much says it all, I think.  That said, Donalds gives us a litany of how a growing economy is good for Black men, more US energy production is good for Black men, and higher prices are not good for Black men.  Great!  But isn't this the same "a rising tide lifts all boats" policy that Democrats have repeated for decades, that Black men and women said doesn't really speak to them? Maybe that's why Black men and women voted overwhelmingly for Harris.

There's no question that if the 2028 election is about a red hot economy with low inflation and the lowest poverty among Black and Latino children ever, that's good for whoever runs after Trump.  

Here's the thing.  We cut Black and Latino child poverty in half when Biden and Harris were President.  That's a winner!  Harris's proposal to restore that child tax credit for Black and Latino working class families was wildly popular.  It helped tens of millions of working class families get through a period of high inflation allover the world.  If Democrats want to win Black and Latino votes in 2028, that is exactly what we have to fight like hell for when Trump proposes and wins more tax cuts for himself.  And his billionaire cronies and oil company CEOs. While Donalds says "But, hey, a rising tide lifts all boats."
 

 

This is democracy at work.  I'm lovin' it.  America wins!

Beating cops to steal an election is cruel and sick.  @EmmetK comes here to promote cruelty, sickness, and division.

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, KYTOP said:

Losers: Pelosi, Clooney, Obama and all the other Elite Democrats that stabbed Biden in the back in favor of Harris. Liz Cheney, I hope to never hear from her on anything again. 

Thanks, Alan.

I'm referring to Alan Lichtman of course.  His main explanation for why he called this one wrong is that it is historically unprecedented for a party to attack their own nominee.  It makes sense.   Democrats threw Biden under the bus. And then had to say, "But vote for his Vice President."  Who his staff spent three years trashing.  That sure didn't help.

We can argue any counterfactual we want.  But I think it is almost obvious that Biden would have done far worse.  I think Pelosi was smart to stab him in the back, in the interest of her party.  The House as of right now has almost NO change.  The fact that Democrats could still take back the House, or at least basically have a tie, is not an indicator of a landslide against Democrats.  I strongly agree with you that this was mostly about the economy, stupid.  And Biden and Harris were always going to lose an election that was a referendum on inflation.

I disagree with you about January 6th.  I think the polls actually prove it.

This is my interpretation of facts.  Not a fact.  There has been a very clear pattern in these exit polls for 24 years.  People who are better off vote about 2 to 3 for the incumbent party.  People who are worse off vote about 2 to 3 against the incumbent party. People who feel they are the same as four years ago split their vote.  You can see that pattern in 2016.  But it has been the same pattern going back to 2000.   Almost every time people who feel the same as four years ago split their vote.

That pattern changed in 2020.   In 2020 people who felt the same as four years ago voted overwhelmingly against Trump.  I think that is why he lost.   In 2020 almost twice as many people said they were better off than worse off compared to four years ago.   Despite that, Trump lost.  Most people who felt the same as four years ago voted against him.  That had never happened before, going back to 2000.  The one exception was "compassionate conservative" George W. Bush in 2000, who was way better liked than Gore.  So that time Bush won the "same as four years ago" voters by almost 20 points.  That was why W. won a very close race.

My John McCain loving brother, who voted for Trump in 2016 and says he would have voted for Trump in 2020 if he voted on the economy, voted against him in 2020 because he decided Trump was a "megalomaniac."  He voted for Harris in 2024.  He's not going to change his mind.  If Trump does act like a dictator on Day One, as he promised, it will send my moderate Republican brother around the bend.  I hope I am wrong.  But I think Trump is going to alienate people, just like he did from 2017 to 2021.

Why did the normal pattern from 2000 to 2016 change so dramatically in the last two cycles?  Compare how Harris did in 2024 to Clinton in 2016 among people who felt the same financially as four years ago. I think it is because people do see Trump as a liar, a felon, a sexist, a racist, and unhinged.  That's really just a fact.  The polls all say it.  He won by about half of Biden's margin in 2020.  If Trump is smart, he will reach out to these people, and not be a dictator on Day One.  Don't hold your breath.

Why did Harris lose?  I think Never Trump Republican Mike Murphy nailed it a few months ago when he said Harris has a "wall of lava" coming at her. Meaning all the anger and pain about inflation, higher costs, high rent, high mortgage rates.  45 % of voters said they felt worse off financially than four years ago.   You can see above they broke very hard against Harris. That was a wall of lava.  Or, a wall of Latino men who care about their pocketbooks.  She tried hard to outrun it.  But I think Murphy was right.  Would Biden have run faster and smarter? I very much doubt it.

I'd love to see Andy Beshear be the Democratic nominee in 2028.  If Harris were the 2024 nominee, after a primary, and she came out swinging for how the Biden/Harris tax credits cut Latino child poverty in half, she may have won.  If a Latino man like AMLO were the nominee, he would have won.  His party did hold power in Mexico precisely because he did all kinds of stuff to help the Mexican working class, despite COVID.  Beshear has done all kinds of stuff to help Kentucky's working class.  If she had picked him rather than Walz it would have probably helped a little.   But I am glad she didn't, actually. It leaves a wide opening for him in 2028.  That is a debate Democrats are now open to, I think.

By the way, here's another prediction that failed.  Everyone thought that because Democrats did well in 2023 and 2024, before Tuesday - like Beshear winning in Kentucky - it was a good omen.  But maybe the better lesson is that if Democrats want to win, we need to realize that a lot of cultural moderates were turned off by Harris, but would vote for Beshear.

That's going to be a very hard discussion, because it goes to racism. 

I am a California White liberal who voted for Harris every time her name has been on my ballot.  I was really looking forward to her being our first Black female President.  But it is just a fact that immigration drove people nuts, including lots of Democrats.  She said and did all the right things by saying we worked with conservatives on a conservative immigration bill.  But it was too little, too late. 

More generally, what did the ads that ran all over the swing states attack Harris for?  Being a liberal from San Francisco who supported what lots of moderates simply see as an extreme cultural agenda.  That's  a fact. There are plenty of women and Black moderates out there.  Obama managed to navigate around these issues almost flawlessly, even though he is a liberal.  But right now is a very good time to think about why a White guy like Beshear might be a great candidate, if Democrats want to win.

And I gotta say.  If Democrats had fought like hell a few years ago to keep that child tax credit, so Harris could win a primary and campaign on cutting the rate of child poverty among Blacks and Latinos in half, would Latino Dads have voted differently?  Probably.  It was not about Harris.  She was a good pop up candidate with very little time to push back against an economy that left lots of Americans struggling.  Especially Latinos and Blacks and the white working class.  I am proud of the race she ran.

[stevenkesslar]

Since I am on a roll, one more and then I will stop.

In 2006, everyone said home prices never go down.  They were wrong.  In 2010 people said home prices will never go up again.  I bought homes.  In 2008 people said the Republican Party was dead.  In 2010 people said the Democratic Party was dead.  Now people are saying Latinos and Blacks will soon all be Republicans.  Give me a fucking break.

So one report says Harris got 53 % of the Latino vote.  That is slightly worse than Jimmy Carter did, in another inflation election.  Note that in 1980 Reagan did win in a landslide.  Trump won by about half of Biden's winning margin in 2020.  Older White men and women like me did very well in the Biden/Harris years, and our net worth and often incomes soared.  That is why Harris came close to winning despite a working class, disproportionately non-White, that struggled because of inflation.  It also particularly impacted younger voters who rent and want to buy homes.

Is this the new normal?  Probably not.  The two Democrats who did best above were Clinton and Obama running for a second term, who could talk about how they fought for Latinos.  This is despite the fact that Obama was attacked as "Deporter In Chief."  So Democrats need to think about whether child tax credits that help Latino Dads and cut child poverty in half are worth fighting for, I think.  Unless we want to argue that tax cuts for billionaires lift everyone's boat, so let's just make Elon Musk richer.

That's one other piece of evidence that "cultural liberalism" was a problem for Harris.  It definitely did not help with Hispanic Catholics.  I think before Democrats train our rifles on the faces of transgender people, or "the illegals", we need to remember that it really was the economy, stupid.  But I will end by hyperlinking a few of Ruy Teixeira's awesome articles.  He and lefty John Judis, who have been fighting for a liberal working class populism for decades, have nailed this topic.  

The Democrats’ Common Sense Problem

Voters Think They’ve Abandoned It

 

 

 

Election 2024

The Progressive Moment Is Over

Four reasons their era has come to an end.

 

1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it. 

2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.

3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.

4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it.

The two conservative policy ideas that voters said were mostly likely to get them to vote for a candidate were a crackdown on immigration and more domestic production of natural gas and oil.   The two liberal policy ideas that voters said were most likely to get them to vote for a candidate were raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations and restoring the child tax credits.  Anyone who has read Teixeira or his Democratic colleague in crime Stan Greenberg for decades would not be surprised.

 

[KYTOP]

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I disagree with you about January 6th.  I think the polls actually prove it.

Really Steven, why would anyone think that any poll is right after this election?

Was it Mark Twain that said; There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Polls are nothing more than statistics. Mr Twain is laughing from his grave this week.

[KYTOP]

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I'd love to see Andy Beshear be the Democratic nominee in 2028

He thinks he is the modern day Bill Clinton. He has already said he will not be running for McConnell's senate seat  in 2026. He won't confirm the reason, but we that follow Kentucky politics know it is because he expects to be running for President. Just yesterday he was already giving a speech in OHIO. Big bucks attorney John Morgan of Morgan and Morgan Injury Lawyers with his non-stop attorney commercials is ready to throw big bucks to support him.

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, KYTOP said:

 

Quote

I disagree with you about January 6th.  I think the polls actually prove it.

Really Steven, why would anyone think that any poll is right after this election?

Was it Mark Twain that said; There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Polls are nothing more than statistics. Mr Twain is laughing from his grave this week.

First, thanks for reading my very long post.   I cited so many polls in it that it should be clear that I read polls, and respect them.  Even when they are wrong, which they often are.

Second, as regards Jan.6th, I'll just cut and paste three:

Quote

• A Washington Post-University of Maryland poll from January said most Americans (55%) believe the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten.
• A CBS News/YouGov survey from the same month found 78% disapprove of the actions of those who forced their way into the Capitol.
• ABC News/Ipsos in August found 52% of Americans think Donald Trump should have been charged with a crime for his connection to the riot.

I'll make an intentionally simplistic and false statement.  For the good of the Democratic Party, the very best thing that could happen is that Trump ignores all that.  If I am being crude and partisan like Trump is, I hope he acts like a dictator on day one.  And starts to arrest political opponents, or just any American who protests.  And encourages MAGA guys with guns to attack cops in blue cities who actually defend Americans' right to protest.  Let's just throw in that he starts rounding up, caging, and deporting the legally American children of "illegals". 

The resistance will make what happened from 2017 to 2021 look like child's play.  That would help Democrats, just like it did in 2018 and 2020.

For the good of the country, I think all this future would be horrible.  I hope Trump does not go there. But he may.  He almost promised to.  And, like I said, this was a simplistic and false statement.  I don't think this is what most Democrats or Independents want.  I do think it is what they fear.

I'm a California liberal who would be happy with either Harris or Beshear.  Ask me who I would rather have as President, and I will say Harris.  Ask me who is more likely to win, and I will say Beshear.  I genuinely admire and respect both of them.  So this is a debate I welcome.

So let me turn this around and ask you a question.   Why did Harris do so much better than Biden, who did so much better than Clinton, among voters who felt they were about the same financially as they were four years ago? 

The answer to that question matters immensely, simply based on math.  Because in 2020 it is why Trump lost.  If 2020 were like any year from 1976 to 2016, and that group split their vote, Trump would have won in 2020.  And not by a small margin.  Conversely, if people who felt the same as they did four years ago voted in 2024 the way they did from 1976 to 2016, Harris would have lost in a real landslide.  Somehow, she managed to win among people whose financial situation was the same as four years ago by 43 points.  That is unprecedented.   Why?

Just to be extremely clear, the exit polls said that in 2024 24 % of voters felt better off, 30 % felt the same, 45 % felt worse off.  Again, my bumper sticker for the whole 2024 election is that 45 % was the "wall of lava" that Harris could not outrun.  Not unlike Romney's 48 %, which is why he lost an election he should have won if it were only about the economy.

 

Unfortunately at some point years ago CNN got rid of their exit polls from many past elections.  So you will have to take my word for it, since I am obviously a poll geek.  As a rule of thumb, from 2000 to 2016, at least 2 in 3 people who felt better off consistently voted for the incumbent party.  At least 2 in 3 people who felt worse off consistently voted against the incumbent party.  And people who said they are the same split their vote.  In many years - How that breaks down in a good or bad economic year largely determines who win.  That is why so many pollsters and pundits focused so heavily on the right track/wrong track question.

This Gallup poll reinforces the point.  The two years in which people who felt worse off vastly outnumbered those who felt better off were 1992 and 2024.  Is it a shocker that the incumbent party lost?

But look at 2020.  Trump should have won in a landslide.  55 % of voters felt better off, even in the depths of COVID lockdowns.  So what explains his loss? 

I think it was all the stuff about unhinged, narcissist, crude, sexist, racist, liar, etc.  Some of this is anecdotal.  My Republican brother who voted for him in 2016 detested him by 2020 and called him a "megalomaniac."  My centrist brother, who I think of as a Bloomberg Democrat, literally kept saying somebody should shoot Trump in 2020.  The two US Senators I knew best were Paul Wellstone and Jeff Merkley.  So I know some pretty far out there liberals.  I am amazed how many moderate people Trump radicalized.  That is my explanation for why so many moderate people who felt they were either better off in 2020, or the same as four years ago, fired him anyway.

It was the opposite in 2012.  This Gallup poll used slightly different wording. In 2012 45 % said they were better off.  52 % said they were worse off.  Team Obama knew they had a problem. Their solution was to portray Romney as a fat cat who didn't care about the 48 %.  It worked.  But in 2020 61 % said they were better off, and only 31 % said they were worse off.  2016 to 2020 was mostly the tail end of the economic recovery and stock market boom that started in 2010 or so.  Trump should have won handily with numbers way better than any other incumbent in this century.  Why didn't he?

How would this sound:   Kamala Harris loses to Trump 55 to 43?  Over ten points.  Imagine how bad that would have been.  But if this were 1976, or 1992, or 1996, or 2004, voters who felt the same as four years ago split their vote almost 50/50.  In 2024, Kamala won that group -which was 30 % of the electorate - by a 69/28 margin.  Again, totally unprecedented.  If that group split their vote 50/50, like they did in almost every Presidential election polled before Trump, she would have lost in massive landslide.

Michael Steele said something that was in the ballpark of your point on TV this week, but in a much softer way.  He said Trump voters have obviously stated they are "good with" all this stuff about Trump being unhinged or a fascist or whatever.  I think that is a good phrase.  If I were an elected Democrat I would presume that Trump voters will be "good with" some racist insult. Or some joke about Puerto Ricans being garbage.  Would they be good with Trump arresting Nancy Pelosi, or watching Trump loyalists beat up cops who are defending some other institution that Trump is attacking?  I don't think so.

Trump was tailor made for Saul Alinsky's phrase, "the action is in the reaction."  What I honestly hope he does is moderate.  And try to figure out how to build a right of center working class conservative party.  Sadly, I think Trump is clueless on how to do that.  He didn't even try in his first term. Tax cuts for billionaires?

One person I genuinely like is Susie Wiles.  She claims to be a moderate, which is backed up by the fact she worked on John Huntsman's campaign.  If there is hope for Trump's working class party, it is with people like her.  If Trump is left to his own hatreds and narcissism and cruelty, this will go down the same or worse as his first term.   Beshear, or whoever Democrats nominate, will clean the clock of JD Vance, or whoever tries to replace him.  Beshear in particular excels at just being the nice down to earth guy you want your daughter (or son 😍 ) to marry.

But this is the debate Democrats should be having.  Is 50 % of America (I think that will be close to Trump's final vote total) all in for authoritarianism or fascism or racism or sexism?   Or did they vote for Trump because they felt worse off, and are hoping he just makes the economy work better for them?  I clearly think it's the latter.

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, KYTOP said:

Just yesterday he [Andy Beshear] was already giving a speech in OHIO.  Big bucks attorney John Morgan of Morgan and Morgan Injury Lawyers with his non-stop attorney commercials is ready to throw big bucks to support him.

If you have not watched this interview between Chris Cuomo and Morgan, you should like it.

I  watched it a while back.  But if I call right I think he mentioned Beshear as the kind of Democrat who can win.

Of course, you and Morgan will not see eye to eye on Pelosi.  He adores her, because she is so effective.  Again, I think if Biden were the nominee he would have lost by a much bigger margin.  We know for a fact that Harris raised a ton of money and recruited volunteers that saved the asses of many, many Democrats, compared to how things looked the day before Biden dropped out. Credit Pelosi for that.

Morgan was right.   He calls Pelosi "Little Bo Peep with razors." If you don't believe him, ask Joe Biden. 😨

[KYTOP]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

• A Washington Post-University of Maryland poll from January said most Americans (55%) believe the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten.
• A CBS News/YouGov survey from the same month found 78% disapprove of the actions of those who forced their way into the Capitol.
• ABC News/Ipsos in August found 52% of Americans think Donald Trump should have been charged with a crime for his connection to the riot.

I would not disagree with these polls but what I said is that most of the Country has moved on. What happened has happened, what is going to be done about it has been done. The majority agrees on the blame but have moved on. Beating this dead horse will not make it raise up and win the Kentucky Derby. It was dragged from the track in the Horse Ambulance and ground into the Dog and Cat food your pet ate months ago. If the Democrats do not move on to the People's present needs and concerns they will be left in the rearview mirror. Most People don't give a shit about it anymore, they care about inflation, high interest rates were they can't buy a new car or house. If a convicted felon can solve their problems they don't care what he may have or may not have done.

[KYTOP]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

 He calls Pelosi "Little Bo Peep with razors."

I would agree with that especially when she turns on her own