It's Election Day !!!!!!

[Suckrates]

 

But WHO and WHAT  will we be Tomorrow ???   

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

 

But WHO and WHAT  will we be Tomorrow ???   

So you just know I gotta go long on this one.

Here is an interesting psychobabble answer to your question.   If Trump wins,  Mark Halperin has been arguing for months we will have the "biggest mental health crisis" in US history.  It's a serious statement.  He thinks tens of millions of Americans really won't understand how this could happen.  They won't feel they recognize the country they live in.

I disagree with that prognosis. If Trump wins, it will be like 2016 to 2020 on steroids.  There will be enormous Democratic resistance, starting immediately.

I'll make it worse, then better.  I've watched Halperin's 2Way channel regularly for months.  The good thing about it is he has brought both Harris and Trump supporters together to talk in respectful, informative ways every day.  That is why I watch it.  Halperin clearly feels empathy for both sides. 

For Harris supporters like me, he thinks what we miss is that lots of Trump supporters simply think the Left has gone too far.  And lots of Trump supporters deeply feel the Establishment, meaning most institutions and definitely government, is broken and needs to be disrupted.  I don't actually miss that.  I get all that.  Harris is a California liberal who embodies all these fears and is seen as too far Left.  Regardless of who wins, those are real problems we need to fix.  And if Trump wins, that will be why.  So these are things Democrats better pay attention to, even if we win.

What really surprised me is Halperin and his R (Sean Spicer) and D (Dan Turrentine) co-hosts picked who they think will win the House and Senate.  All three agree Republicans will take the House.  All three agreed Republicans will end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats.  The latter really surprised me.  Turrentine is a lifelong moderate Democrat who has worked for Jared Polis, Joe Manchin, Hillary Clinton.  So is he no Sandernista.  But that might give him a clearer and more centrist view of what is really happening.  When I heard that, I immediately thought, "Oh my God!  Am I blind? Am I really missing something?"  Or, all three of them could just be wrong.

So now it gets better.  I do think Harris will win. I've cited Lichtman, who is never wrong.  The stock market has performed exactly like it does in years when the incumbent party wins.  The poll averages have Harris slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, and only 0.3 % behind in Pennsylvania.    So the polls are tied, as well as unreliable.  But there is no bad news for Harris in what I just said.  And Halperin is one of a chorus saying Trump's last few weeks were awful.  He sounded just like the unhinged menace Harris has painted him to be.

So the most interesting thing at the moment is Ann Selzer.  She was the canary in the coal mine in 2016 and 2020. Both times she said the country is more for Trump than the polls are telling us.  Both times she was right. Now she is saying the exact opposite.  Older women in particular are sick of it, and abortion is a huge driver. 

If Selzer is the canary in the coal mine a third time in a row, it means the surprise tonight will be that the polls modeled themselves too much on 2016 and 2020, for fear of underestimating Trump again. And Harris and Democrats will do better than expected.  Selzer's poll shows 2 Democrats in Iowa CD 1 and 3 clobbering their incumbent Republican opponents in what Cook Political Report call toss ups.  So if Selzer is right, as she almost always is (she was wrong about Kerry in 2004, but only by a few points) it is going to be a surprisingly good night for Democrats. Democrats will take the House.  Basically 2022 redux, but slightly better for Democrats.

I watched several interviews yesterday of the data geeks who understand the early vote stuff inside out.  That is the best argument Republicans are making now.  The early vote is a wave of Republicans voting in record numbers.  But the Democratic numbers guys - Tom Bonier, Joe Trippi - say Republicans simply got their core voters to vote early.  They have no turnout machine.  Meanwhile, Democrats have a massive turnout machine.  And we got new voters to vote early.  And women are voting is record numbers, way more than men.  So the Democrats who understand the math best say Elon Musk, who is screaming that MAGA is crushing it,  is an ignorant fool who has no fucking idea what he is talking about.  I definitely buy that.  They predict a red mirage (which we already have in the early vote numbers Musk cites) followed by a blue wave.

If Team Halperin is missing something, it boils down to one word:  resistance.  To Halperin's credit, he wants to play nice and be empathetic to both sides.  In part, I suspect, because his business model depends on it.  What he may be missing, that Selzer is picking up, is deep principled bipartisan resistance.  Kamala Harris PLUS Liz Cheney.  And rage that this whole Trump thing is just NOT okay.  If what Selzer is saying is true, MAGA is about to get flushed down the toilet by America.  And Team Halperin just missed it.  Or, they saw it and discounted it.  Halperin actually had a great interview with Ann Selzer a few days ago.  But he obviously doesn't quite believe her.  Neither, by the way, does Newt Gingrich.  How shocking is THAT, LOL?

I'll add Michael Moore one last time.  He speaks for me.  He has been a pretty good canary in the coal mine, too.  He is not even pretending to base his prediction on polls.  He has a deep gut feeling for the working class, and resistance movements.  His Spidey sense tells him we are going to see a wave of women. And it will boil down to RESISTANCE. So I will let him say it in his own moving words below.   The part I am quoting is at 7:00

 

Quote

My heart tells me that we are in for a great and historic moment.   One that should make all of us who care about this country, and love it, very emotional in the sense that we pulled this off.   That we are better than what we've seen ............ We are a good people.   And we are a decent people."  🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍🌈

 

 

Hope Moore and Selzer are again the canaries in the coal mine, who understand the heart of America more than most.

 

[stevenkesslar]

And a BIG shoe drops.

The smartest Democrats who have been most freaked out about the early vote numbers cite one name, and one name only .............. Jon Ralston.   he's the dean of Nevada politics, who like Ann Selzer has gotten it right every time in a state where statewide elections are always close.

Ralston has been beating the drum for weeks that there has been a flood of Republican early votes.   And that looks bad for Democrats.  Like Karl Rove, he says it's very hard to reach conclusions because we just don't know what the new normal of voting is.   But he now says Democrats will catch up.

So the dean of Nevada politics who always gets it right says Kamala Harris and Jacky Rosen will win in Nevada.   If Ralston is right - one last time, like he always is - it's already one strike against Team Halperin.  I like this game.

 

[Suckrates]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

And a BIG shoe drops.

The smartest Democrats who have been most freaked out about the early vote numbers cite one name, and one name only .............. Jon Ralston.   he's the dean of Nevada politics, who like Ann Selzer has gotten it right every time in a state where statewide elections are always close.

Ralston has been beating the drum for weeks that there has been a flood of Republican early votes.   And that looks bad for Democrats.  Like Karl Rove, he says it's very hard to reach conclusions because we just don't know what the new normal of voting is.   But he now says Democrats will catch up.

So the dean of Nevada politics who always gets it right says Kamala Harris and Jacky Rosen will win in Nevada.   If Ralston is right - one last time, like he always is - it's already one strike against Team Halperin.  I like this game.

 

 

Shoes will be dropping ALL day, and you are just grasping for straws that fit you desired outcome.   Turn off your phone and TV, and go to sleep for the next 24 hrs..... When you are awakened, perhaps you'll have your Answer ?   And may the Dem GOD be with us !       

[stevenkesslar]

50 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

go to sleep for the next 24 hrs..

Are you kidding?

I am a total political whore.  This is like the orgy of the century!

[Riobard]

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Are you kidding?

I am a total political whore.  This is like the orgy of the century!

It is expected that your intense surveillance will influence the outcome. 

 

[Moses]

Lemming, I know you'll read this.

I want to say that I even feel sorry for you - you were so confident, and Lichtman let you down. And he couldn't help but let you down - his system is ossified and outdated: it doesn't take into account modern reality - the ability of everyone to communicate with and influence everyone - all these Twitters, TikToks and other global means of direct communication with the world. It didn't take Musk into account.

Everything that I predicted happened: Kamala turned out to be a waste of space, the assassination attempt on Trump gave him the image of a fighter and r-r-revolutionary, "the new Che", criminal prosecutions made Trump a "victim" and rallied supporters around him, who convinced and mobilized the doubters.

[EmmetK]

7 hours ago, Moses said:

Lemming, I know you'll read this.

I want to say that I even feel sorry for you - you were so confident, and Lichtman let you down. And he couldn't help but let you down - his system is ossified and outdated: it doesn't take into account modern reality - the ability of everyone to communicate with and influence everyone - all these Twitters, TikToks and other global means of direct communication with the world. It didn't take Musk into account.

Everything that I predicted happened: Kamala turned out to be a waste of space, the assassination attempt on Trump gave him the image of a fighter and r-r-revolutionary, "the new Che", criminal prosecutions made Trump a "victim" and rallied supporters around him, who convinced and mobilized the doubters.

Lichtman is an idiot. And those promoting here are too.
How are Lichtman's keys doing?  lol.

TRUMP2024
MAGA 

 

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