Aw! The sexist raping lying loser is gonna lose. Who could have seen this coming?

[stevenkesslar]

 

Quote

Several allies of Donald Trump are warning that the former president could lose the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, citing early voting numbers showing high turnout among women.

Quote

As of Thursday evening, nearly 62 million early votes have been cast, with majority cast by women, 54 percent to 44 percent, according to NBC News' tracker, a trend that translates to Pennsylvania too.

 

Aw!  Poor thing!  The sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose!  Aw!  

No red wave.  No blue wave.  A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down.

They don't like him, or want him.  Who knew?

Aw!  Poor things!   The male fascism loving say dumb shit "fuck the bitch" testosterone vote is just so impotent!

Real men don't vote!  They point their guns at Liz Cheney and shoot.  Disloyal bitch!

Who ever would have guessed their ground game sucked?  Just dumb men with lots of testicles saying offensive shit all the time!

How could a dumb fuck fascist wannabe like Trump even see this coming?

 

https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851717440998453751

[Suckrates]

 

We need to stop listening to all these news feeds of "He's gonna lose,  "she's gonna lose". because there is an extraordinary amount of Fake news and false info swirling about Both candidates.

With 10 years of negative news and corrupt action under his belt, Trump is STILL a leading contender with a good chance of winning if White Men have their say....

At this point its not about issues anymore,  it will come down to character and turnout. 

 

[stevenkesslar]

16 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

We need to stop listening to all these news feeds of "He's gonna lose,  "she's gonna lose". because there is an extraordinary amount of Fake news

What may be "fake" is the polls.   Meaning Trump overperformed his poll numbers in 2016 and 2020 - the latter of which was impacted by COVID and Democrats having a weak or non-existent ground game.   Then in 2022 - including in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan - all these Democrats outperformed their polls.  Democratic Governors won supposedly close races by big margins.  I would not rely on how the polls will go this time.

16 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

it will come down to character and turnout. 

 

Exactly.  Both favor Democrats right now.  Those were the two things that filled up Morning Joe today.  1)  Why do we want a President who threatens to kill his political opponents?   2)  Turnout of women is strong, and looks good for Harris.   It's early vote, and past voting patterns have definitely changed post-COVID.  So everybody smart (e.g. Karl Rove)  is saying we don't know for sure.  But I think what is becoming clearer by the day is a wall of women is voting in droves.  And men are not measuring up.

https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1852038704468234747

Quote

Women are voting early, outperforming men. The current MAGA cope is, "Men vote on election days." Not in 2022, they didn't. Especially not YOUNG MEN who listen to podcasts like Joe Rogan. They don't vote. GET THEM TO THIS TIME

Again, nobody knows for sure what this means.  But these are facts, not right wing bullshit. They are scared.  And smart people who know what it takes to win have been saying for months that Trump's ground game is a delusional mess.

I'll keep repeating this, because the growing evidence suggests my instinct is right.  Much of my life experience could be summarized this way:  if you want to win, organize women. While Trump has been flapping his lips about dogs and cats and why women need him to protect them, Harris has been organizing hard.  Trump has organized women against him.  Harris has organized women for her. 

We'll know soon.  But at this point the wave of women can't be changed. And it looks like it will be powerful.

[Suckrates]

[stevenkesslar]

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP

Trump doubles down on violent rhetoric in final stretch

Wonder if these two headlines could possibly be related?

 

[Suckrates]

15 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP

Trump doubles down on violent rhetoric in final stretch

Wonder if these two headlines could possibly be related?

 

 

If he keeps spiraling, by election day we may actually see Hannibal Lecter.   The man is having a breakdown in plain sight. 

[Stable Genius]

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086

[Pete1111]

One optimistic vlogger I follow suggested quite a while ago that Iowa could flip.  Now the Des Moines Register confirms Harris might do it.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4967899-harris-takes-lead-over-trump-in-iowa-poll/

 

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told The Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

 

[Pete1111]

2 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

One optimistic vlogger I follow suggested quite a while ago that Iowa could flip.  Now the Des Moines Register confirms Harris might do it.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4967899-harris-takes-lead-over-trump-in-iowa-poll/

 

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told The Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

 

Full disclosure, I flew into Des Moines Thursday and even though Des Moines is somewhat blue, I am still surprised at the lack of Trump signs around the areas of metro Des Moines I have visited.

Folks at the Bulwark are smiling about Selzer's data.

 

[stevenkesslar]

A few really important parts of this:

Quote

• The [Iowa] poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Quote

That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin. 

This is double bad news for Trump.   He is losing women.   And women are the ones who are most likely to vote.

Quote

In fact, her [Iowa] poll four years ago was a canary in the coal mine that rosier surveys for Democrats across the Midwest wouldn’t hold up when the votes were tallied. And that’s exactly what happened: Biden lost Iowa by 9 points and Ohio by 8 points, despite other polls showing a close race. And his big leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all-but-evaporated when he won those states narrowly.

It's just one poll, but it suggests Harris could actually overperform in some of those Midwest states.

More evidence that the wave of women is growing, and can not be stopped.

[stevenkesslar]

6 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Folks at the Bulwark are smiling about Selzer's data.

Proof of concept, as we discussed.

Sam Stein literally had to tell Tim Miller to take it down from here to here.

Gotta love out happy Gay boy!

[Suckrates]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Proof of concept, as we discussed.

Sam Stein literally had to tell Tim Miller to take it down from here to here.

Gotta love out happy Gay boy!

 

Well, i'll just say this about that,  "REMEMBER HILLARY CLINTON "..... and i'll keep sayin it until the Official Winner is called. 

[stevenkesslar]

5 hours ago, Suckrates said:

 

Well, i'll just say this about that,  "REMEMBER HILLARY CLINTON "..... and i'll keep sayin it until the Official Winner is called. 

Absolutely.

The potential good news here is that if Harris wins Iowa, not only does it put the election in the bag for her.  It throws a curve ball at all the election denialism that is already baked into the cake if it is a close race.  This poll was the canary in the coal mine in 2016.  I remember that well.  It tore into the narrative about Hillary cruising to victory.  This poll tears into the narrative that it is a close race.

There have been concerns raised here that I am drinking Mark Halperin's Kool Aid.  I'm wondering whether Halperin is drinking the Kool Aid.  He recently trashed his media colleagues for buying David Plouffe's assertion that late breaking voters were going to Harris by 10 points or more.  He quoted Chris LaMAGA or whatever his name is in Trump World saying all Harris has now is a losing "bullshit machine."  Halperin has been asserting that Harris's path to victory in the Sunbelt is seemingly closed, perhaps.  While he cities "insiders" on both sides, he mostly sounds like he is a voice for Trumpers these days.   

I'll start a different post on this, because it's both interesting and funny, I think.  Halperin has been going off about how unfair the media has been to Trump recently.  Like how they handled the "shooting Liz Cheney" thing.  Aw. Poor Donald Trump!  Don't ya hate how everybody bullies him?  Then again, there is growing evidence that lots of women don't like male bullies.

Iowa confirms that Independents, especially women Independents, may be breaking for Harris in a huge way - enough to maybe create a shock win.  Here's happy Gay boy Tim Miller talking about the new NYT/Siena poll, which is another established heavy lifter.  They show Harris has a 16 point lead among people deciding in the last few days.  Which explains why Harris leads in North Carolina and Georgia in their poll.   

 

By the way, @Pete1111, we found the secret weapon to tone Tim down.  Daylight savings time!

[Suckrates]

 

Although recent Iowa numbers show optimism, most pundits concur she probably WONT win Iowa.    Everyone is getting just too over-excited with every changing poll report.  Its enough to drive you to the brink, and then over it....  People are encouraged because numbers show Harris surging, BUT (wait for it)  Remember HILLARY...

Trump is beyond desperate, so who know what Orange rabbit he'll pull out of his hat.   We've already seen him give a microphone a "blowjob", and call for firing squads to Kill Cheney and the Fake Media..... And his base is becoming increasingly ANGRIER......

And then, theres still the GAZA thing that keeps popping up, and the UNpopularity of Biden is still a drag on Harris...Plus lets not minimize the effects of the 3rd Party candidates which are pulling war-angry Voters...

OMG, I cant take it anymore, and dont ask me what i'll do if Orange Pig wins.......

As for Tim Miller, she's a bit over-reactive and dramatic.    And she wears Pearls !    

[stevenkesslar]

39 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

As for Tim Miller, she's a bit over-reactive and dramatic. 

Now be nice.   Here's Tim again, interviewing Ann Selzer.   Please .... no comments about Tim's choice of hair products.

It gets better.  It sounds like two of four Iowa districts may flip from red to blue.   One by a large margin.  Unless her polls are just totally off.

 

My take away is this may be a classic case of "the action is in the reaction."   As Selzer notes, a six week abortion ban dropped in Iowa this Summer.   She thinks that is one factor driving a shift.   It certainly fits with the broader narrative that reaction against abortion bans has been underrated.

This also reminds me of Super Tuesday 2020.  There was really no logical explanation for how Biden's broken down campaign won in states like Minnesota and Massachusetts where he had no campaign, and sitting US Senators were his opponents. But sometimes organic waves just happen.  We'll see soon.

The other interesting question is whether any of this is a canary in the coal mine for other states.   Selzer gives the smart professional answer:  who knows?   This is about Iowa.   

But Texas and Florida are the other two states that come to mind.  Texas had an abortion ban drop in 2022.  Florida's dropped this year.  There's really nothing in either state's polling that suggests some wave of women who are reacting to abortion bans are about to deliver a shock Senate win.  But it would explain why both Senate races seem to be at least a bit closer than they should be.

In 2018 when Beto was hot, the final RCP polling average showed Cruz leading by 6.8 points.  The closest Beto was in any individual poll was 3 points behind.  The final results were Beto lost by 2.6 %, significantly outperforming the polls.  Right now the three most recent polls in Texas all show Cruz 4 points ahead.  It seems nuts to think there will be a blue wave in Texas, kind of like in 2018. Even though it fell short of taking out Cruz.  If anything Texas and Florida have been ground zero for Latinos moving to Trump.

At the very least, this suggests that while there may be long term movement of Latinos to the GOP, or Trump, in Texas and Florida, there are also powerful countertrends in both states.

[Suckrates]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

Now be nice.   Here's Tim again, interviewing Ann Selzer.   Please .... no comments about Tim's choice of hair products.

It gets better.  It sounds like two of four Iowa districts may flip from red to blue.   One by a large margin.  Unless her polls are just totally off.

 

My take away is this may be a classic case of "the action is in the reaction."   As Selzer notes, a six week abortion ban dropped in Iowa this Summer.   She thinks that is one factor driving a shift.   It certainly fits with the broader narrative that reaction against abortion bans has been underrated.

This also reminds me of Super Tuesday 2020.  There was really no logical explanation for how Biden's broken down campaign won in states like Minnesota and Massachusetts where he had no campaign, and sitting US Senators were his opponents. But sometimes organic waves just happen.  We'll see soon.

The other interesting question is whether any of this is a canary in the coal mine for other states.   Selzer gives the smart professional answer:  who knows?   This is about Iowa.   

But Texas and Florida are the other two states that come to mind.  Texas had an abortion ban drop in 2022.  Florida's dropped this year.  There's really nothing in either state's polling that suggests some wave of women who are reacting to abortion bans are about to deliver a shock Senate win.  But it would explain why both Senate races seem to be at least a bit closer than they should be.

In 2018 when Beto was hot, the final RCP polling average showed Cruz leading by 6.8 points.  The closest Beto was in any individual poll was 3 points behind.  The final results were Beto lost by 2.6 %, significantly outperforming the polls.  Right now the three most recent polls in Texas all show Cruz 4 points ahead.  It seems nuts to think there will be a blue wave in Texas, kind of like in 2018. Even though it fell short of taking out Cruz.  If anything Texas and Florida have been ground zero for Latinos moving to Trump.

At the very least, this suggests that while there may be long term movement of Latinos to the GOP, or Trump, in Texas and Florida, there are also powerful countertrends in both states.

 

Oh Sis, I wish I have a nickel for every time I was lead to believe a guy had a huge cock, and then, when I finally reached into his drawers, I could hardly FIND it...... Polls are made to mislead, although some find them useful, maybe indicate trends, but the proof is always in the puddin,  so dont go flyin your Kamala flag just yet....  And also the fact that people arent always that Honest when polled gives me pause....  You would think this election was a no brainer, a heartless, racist felon dictator vs a sane, credentialed person with morals and humanity.   But up to now it seems that our fractured country, at least a large part of it wants the Dictator.   If I sound calm and rational now, its because the drugs are kickin in   🤪

[EmmetK]

Your prognosticating ability is almost as keen as your pal, Alan Lichtman...... lol!

How's Cackling Kamala? Not cackling much these days?

TRUMP 2024
MAGA .

[Bingo T Dog]

49 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Your prognosticating ability is almost as keen as your pal, Alan Lichtman...... lol!

How's Cackling Kamala? Not cackling much these days?

TRUMP 2024
MAGA .

Is Trump FARTING up a storm in delight and excitement??????????????

[Suckrates]

1 minute ago, Bingo T Dog said:

Is Trump FARTING up a storm in delight and excitement??????????????

Oh Bingo, thats just Trump being Trump. 😏

[EmmetK]

On 11/1/2024 at 3:12 PM, stevenkesslar said:

 

 

Aw!  Poor thing!  The sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose!  Aw!  

No red wave.  No blue wave.  A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down.

They don't like him, or want him.  Who knew?

Aw!  Poor things!   The male fascism loving say dumb shit "fuck the bitch" testosterone vote is just so impotent!

Real men don't vote!  They point their guns at Liz Cheney and shoot.  Disloyal bitch!

Who ever would have guessed their ground game sucked?  Just dumb men with lots of testicles saying offensive shit all the time!

How could a dumb fuck fascist wannabe like Trump even see this coming?

 

https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851717440998453751

"So the sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose"? Really?
"A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down"? Really?
"They don't like him or want him"? Really?
"Their ground game sucked"? Really?
"Just dumb men with lots of testicles saying offensive shit all the time"? Really?

What happened to those waves of women who were gonna vote for Cackles? 
What happened to Trump's lousy ground game?  

The American people, in a landslide, gave President Trump their collective Seal of Approval to follow thru with his agenda to Make America Great Again.

Btw, have you been honing your prognosticating skills from Allan Lichtman, aka The Village Idiot, and his magical keys? LOL!

As the old saying goes: Those who talk (or in your case "write") the most, say the least!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

 

[Bingo T Dog]

2 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

"So the sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose"? Really?
"A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down"? Really?
"They don't like him or want him"? Really?
"Their ground game sucked"? Really?
"Just dumb men with lots of testicles saying offensive shit all the time"? Really?

What happened to those waves of women who were gonna vote for Cackles? 
What happened to Trump's lousy ground game?  

The American people, in a landslide, gave President Trump their collective Seal of Approval to follow thru with his agenda to Make America Great Again.

Btw, have you been honing your prognosticating skills from Allan Lichtman, aka The Village Idiot, and his magical keys? LOL!

As the old saying goes: Those who talk (or in your case "write") the most, say the least!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

 

Are you thinking Trump cheated??????????????????

[EmmetK]

7 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said:

Are you thinking Trump cheated??????????????????

No need to cheat in an election that was basically fair and you have the overwhelming support of the American people.

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[gayinpattaya]

Lol. This didn't age well did it. Libtard wokie tears everywhere. Glorious 

[Suckrates]

10 hours ago, EmmetK said:

No need to cheat in an election that was basically fair and you have the overwhelming support of the American people.

TRUMP2024
MAGA

 

All things are Fair and Fine, as long as Trump wins.....He had to cancel the 2024 insurrection when he learned he Won. 

[EmmetK]

On 11/1/2024 at 3:12 PM, stevenkesslar said:

 

 

Aw!  Poor thing!  The sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose!  Aw!  

I must admit. I have called Kamala many things. But even I never called her a "sexist raping rights removing lying loser"

No red wave.  No blue wave.  A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down.

Now, what happened to that wave of women? 

Aw!  Poor things!   The male fascism loving say dumb shit "fuck the bitch" testosterone vote is just so impotent!

Not as impotent as you would like to think!

Real men don't vote!  They point their guns at Liz Cheney and shoot.  Disloyal bitch!

Actually, real men DO vote.

Who ever would have guessed their ground game sucked?  

Whose ground game sucked? You must mean Cackles, because the GOP ground game catapulted TRUMP to a landslide victory.

How could a dumb fuck fascist wannabe like Trump even see this coming?

See what coming? His landslide victory? Poor dumb fuck fascist wannabe Trump. You can start referring to hm as Mr. President in 2 months.

 

 

 

On 11/1/2024 at 6:14 PM, stevenkesslar said:

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP

One can only imagine the size of Trump's landslide victory if those late deciders broke for him!

 

On 11/2/2024 at 8:57 PM, Pete1111 said:

One optimistic vlogger I follow suggested quite a while ago that Iowa could flip.  Now the Des Moines Register confirms Harris might do it.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4967899-harris-takes-lead-over-trump-in-iowa-poll/

 

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told The Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

Trump won Iowa by 14 points. The only thing that flipped was Ann Selzer's psyche.

 

On 11/3/2024 at 4:17 AM, stevenkesslar said:

A few really important parts of this:

This is double bad news for Trump.   He is losing women.   And women are the ones who are most likely to vote.

More evidence that the wave of women is growing, and can not be stopped.

Double bad news for Trump? Poor Donald. You may want to reconsider.

 

On 11/3/2024 at 12:30 PM, stevenkesslar said:

Aw. Poor Donald Trump!  Don't ya hate how everybody bullies him?  Then again, there is growing evidence that lots of women don't like male bullies.

Enough oof them do to give Trump a landslide victory.

Iowa confirms that Independents, especially women Independents, may be breaking for Harris in a huge way - enough to maybe create a shock win.  

All those independent women in Iowa breaking for Harris? Then how did Trump win Iowa by 14 points?

They show Harris has a 16 point lead among people deciding in the last few days.  Which explains why Harris leads in North Carolina and Georgia in their poll.   

And what explains Trump winning both Iowa and Georgia?  And EVERY other swing state?

 

On 11/3/2024 at 3:10 PM, stevenkesslar said:

It gets better.  It sounds like two of four Iowa districts may flip from red to blue.   One by a large margin.  Unless her polls are just totally off.

Yes. It does get better. All four Iowa House seats stayed RED. 

It certainly fits with the broader narrative that reaction against abortion bans has been underrated.

Actually, as the election results show, the reaction against abortion has been OVERRATED.

But Texas and Florida are the other two states that come to mind.  Texas had an abortion ban drop in 2022.  Florida's dropped this year.  There's really nothing in either state's polling that suggests some wave of women who are reacting to abortion bans are about to deliver a shock Senate win.  But it would explain why both Senate races seem to be at least a bit closer than they should be.

Closer?  Really? Rick Scott won Florida by 13 points. Far more than any poll had predicted. ANd Ted Cruz won Texas by almost 9 points and a million votes. Again, far more than any poll predicted.
.