Japan Radiation: Dangers to the Region

[Moses]

Robert Alvarez states that this can most certainly happen after just several hours exposure to the air. In that event, he says vastly more cesium-137 will be released into the atmosphere than was the case at Chernobyl. And he chillingly adds, "Then all bets are off."

 

Alwarez isn't scientist - he is politician and formerly was on duty as an adviser (up to 1999), now he wants to be popular and earn points on this tragedy.

 

Better look here http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201103170202.html

It is exactly what I had to tell: different type of reactor and different type of fuel.

[Guest fountainhall]

Alwarez isn't scientist - he is politician and formerly was on duty as an adviser (up to 1999), now he wants to be popular and earn points on this tragedy.

Come on, Moses! That is just not true! Alvarez is not a politician. Yes, he was a political adviser to President Clinton - but that is totally different. He is an expert who was asked to serve in an official position to advise on extremely important and delicate nuclear matters. In his biography issued by the Institute of Policy Studies, it says -

 

Robert Alvarez is a Senior Scholar at IPS, where he is currently focused on nuclear disarmament, environmental, and energy policies.

 

Between 1993 and 1999, Mr. Alvarez served as a Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment. While at DOE, he coordinated the effort to enact nuclear worker compensation legislation. In 1994 and 1995, Bob led teams in North Korea to establish control of nuclear weapons materials. He coordinated nuclear material strategic planning for the department and established the department

[Guest fountainhall]

but when the whole truth emerges, there is likely to be a series of errors that compounded this disaster.

Judging from various articles that have been written about the tragedy, there were indeed many errors made. I’ll attempt to summarise the main ones (the three main websites consulted are included at the end).

 

• there is not nearly enough corporate transparency. "Everything is a secret," said Kei Sugaoka, a former nuclear power plant engineer in Japan who now lives in California. In 1989 Sugaoka received an order that horrified him: edit out footage showing cracks in plant steam pipes in video being submitted to regulators. Sugaoka alerted his superiors in the Tokyo Electric Power Co., but nothing happened — for years. He decided to go public in 2000. Three Tepco executives lost their jobs.

 

• the coziness between Japanese regulators and industry.

 

• the decision to build nuclear plants in an earthquake-prone nation like Japan, where land can liquefy during a major temblor. “You're building on a heap of tofu," said Philip White of Tokyo-based Citizens' Nuclear Information Center. In 2006, Japanese professor Katsuhiko Ishibashi resigned from a nuclear power advisory panel, saying that the policy of building in earthquake zones could lead to catastrophe, and that design standards for proofing them against damage were too lax

 

• the Fukushima plant was built in the late sixties to survive a magnitude 8.2 earthquake. Yet a magnitude 9.1 earthquake occurred off Indonesia in December 2004. Did anyone in Japan revise their calculations and make preparations to allow for such a possibility off their coasts?

 

• after the ‘quake, the plant automatically shut down, as it is designed to do. Thereafter the cooling system is designed to carry away the residual heat.

 

• the first set of multiple emergency diesel power generators started. However, the generators were housed in the basement.

 

• the tsunami hit. The sea wall protecting the plant did not crumble as in other areas. However, it had been built to survive 6-meter waves. The tsunami waves were slightly higher. Water rushed in to the plant and disabled the generators.

 

• the final back up is emergency battery power. These worked, but after their life span of 8 hours, they ran out.

 

• the essence of the problem is now a result of water being poured into to the spent fuel rod pools evaporating at a faster rate than it an be applied.

 

What should have been Done?

 

• given the frequency of earthquakes in Japan, greater attention should have ben paid at the outset about possible disasters greater than had existed up to then.

 

• TEPCO and government officials should have continuously upgraded their disaster assumptions and preparations.

 

• back-up power systems should never have been positioned underground. They should have been re-poritioned on higher ground where they would not be affected by tsunami waters.

 

• the spent fuel rods pools should not have been positioned above the reactors themselves, since their integrity could be compromised if something were to go seriously wrong with the reactors themselves.

 

Even with all of the above, problems with the General Electric Mark 1 reactor (one of the oldest still operating and the type used at Fukushima) were made known 35 years ago by three GE engineers who resigned after becoming increasingly convinced that the nuclear reactor design was “so flawed it could lead to a devastating accident.”

 

"The problems we identified in 1975 were that, in doing the design of the containment, they did not take into account the dynamic loads that could be experienced with a loss of coolant," Dale Bridenbaugh told ABC News in an interview (on March 15th). "The impact loads the containment would receive by this very rapid release of energy could tear the containment apart and create an uncontrolled release."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110317/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_nuclear_scandals

 

http://theenergycollective.com/barrybrook/53461/fukushima-nuclear-accident-simple-and-accurate-explanation

 

http://www.voximate.com/blog/article/1078/fukushima-ask-hard-questions/

[Bob]

I'm a bit puzzled by all the premature wringing of hands about every possible issue involving Japan's nuclear plants, whether radiation will find its way to Nakorn Nowhere, etc. Like all major historical events, a little time and gathering of facts will allow Japan and others a better understanding of what happened here, what not to do in the future, the ability to address any possible wrong-doing, etc.

 

I don't have a clue as to whether what happened here was simply beyond reasonable planning and engineering (a reasonably unexpected act of god), whether it was due to corruption or "coziness" between regulators and the industry, or whatever. Nor, at the moment, does it appear than anybody else knows any of that yet.

 

It would seem to me that, pending some disinterested findings here, that every government with a nuclear plant ought to immediately review whatever is needed to be able to safely shut down a nuclear plant struck by a bomb, tsunami, or whatever.....and perhaps have ready off-site whatever emergency equipment that could be moved to a stricken plant within hours to provide full power and facilities to cool down the cores or fuel rods.

[Guest fountainhall]

Nor, at the moment, does it appear than anybody else knows any of that yet.

With all respect Bob, I don't think you have been reading much. It's perfectly clear even at this early stage that a great deal is known - and much of it is extremely unflattering to those running the Japanese nuclear industry and those with supposed oversight.

 

"Was it beyond reasonable planning?" The answer is quite clearly "No!" Do you seriously believe it is good planning to build a nuclear reactor beside the sea in one of the world's most active earthquake zones? It's well-known that the ground liquefies in major quakes and an off-shore quake will generate a tsunami.

 

I grant that the precise location of the earthquake and the height of the tsunami could not have been pinpointed in advance. But the nuclear industry is one of extreme high risk. It's vital that every single risk is addressed at the outset, a slew of redundancy measures put in place, and then constantly reevaluated over time in the light of new developments elsewhere. Equally, measures to reduce the risks to as near zero as possible require constant review. None of this happened at Fukushima.

 

The

[Guest GaySacGuy]

I would like to narrow down to one major cause of all of this...failure to pump water and maintain cool Temperatures...that is IT.

 

But even to a simple old retired firefighter like myself, it seems pretty simple. The earthquake knock out the power, which caused the reactors to shut down. The tsunami wiped out the diesel generators, and then the batteries went dead---game, set, match!!

 

Now, wouldn't it have been a good idea to immediately call in all available trailer mounted generators from whereever, and to start laying a power line to the plant to restore power??? At the very start..not a week later. If they had gotten power to the pumps before the first explosion (which I believe was on day 3??), then the pumps should have worked fine, and all of this could have been avoided...a very short story over in a couple of weeks.

 

Now even if they get the power back, how much of the system is going to work after all the explosions???

 

One more point of importance...there is Plutonium in the used reactor cores in reactor 3.

 

 

From BBC Asia

 

The Yomiuri Shimbun claims the Japanese government did turn down a US offer of technical help to cool the overheating nuclear reactors, soon after the earthquake. The paper, citing an anonymous senior member of the Democratic Party, said the offer was refused because it was felt to be "premature". Last week Tokyo denied turning down an American offer of help.

[Moses]

fountainhall

here I will stop discussion...

 

For me Alwarez - just clown... with degree in physic I see what he is just panica-maker and politician... I cannot find any proof of his education and any scientist works in libraries. And as per his articles- they are just pseudo-sciens bla-bla-bla...

 

Fact number 1 - reactor in Japan is very different with Chernobyl's. Fact 2 - fuel in tubes is different with Chernobyl. Chernobyl's scenario isn't possible in Japan in any way. No way for Japan's catastrophe to be so dangerous for far countries as it was with Chernobyl (after Chernobyl some forests in Norway are still radioactive).

 

I like facts and don't like panica-makers, esp. if they are politician or journalists who want to earn points on tragedy.

[Guest]

Now, wouldn't it have been a good idea to immediately call in all available trailer mounted generators from whereever, and to start laying a power line to the plant to restore power??? At the very start..not a week later. If they had gotten power to the pumps before the first explosion (which I believe was on day 3??), then the pumps should have worked fine, and all of this could have been avoided...a very short story over in a couple of weeks.

 

I agree completely.

 

Also, building a Nuclear plant virtually at sea level is irresponsible & putting backup generators in the basement is plain stupid.

 

I did hear the UK standards would require the plant to be further from the sea & slightly higher, although I've not seen the detailed specifications to back that up.

[Guest fountainhall]

fountainhall

here I will stop discussion...

I like facts and don't like panica-makers, esp. if they are politician or journalists who want to earn points on tragedy.

Ok - I will also stop this particular discussion as it will clearly get us nowhere. But first I have to stand up for Robert Alvarez whom you dismiss so cavalierly. To suggest that Alvarez is a politician or a journalist - or even a clown - is just plain rubbish, with respect! The man is an expert on nuclear matters who happens to write factually-based articles and has helped keep the USA on its toes about the dangers of nuclear power. Have you served as a President's Adviser on nuclear matters - or been part of an official nuclear delegation to North Korea, Moses?

[Guest fountainhall]

Whilst Fukushima may be no Chernobyl, it's important to remember that Chernobyl will remain a haunting reality for many generations to come. This from The New York Times -

 

CHERNOBYL, Ukraine

[Guest]

The biggest risk to Thailand from Fukushima is a higher percentage of global electricity may be generated from coal, resulting in increased CO2 emissions.

 

Hopefully most countries will still recognise Nuclear power is safe, providing appropriate technology is used, together with well considered plant locations.

[Moses]

But first I have to stand up for Robert Alvarez whom you dismiss so cavalierly. To suggest that Alvarez is a politician or a journalist - or even a clown - is just plain rubbish, with respect! The man is an expert on nuclear matters who happens to write factually-based articles and has helped keep the USA on its toes about the dangers of nuclear power. Have you served as a President's Adviser on nuclear matters - or been part of an official nuclear delegation to North Korea, Moses?

 

fountainhall just check his specializations: he is expert in control on nuclear weapon and materials (means international trading and spreading) but have no idea about processes in reactors (as per his articles). Do you have any proof of his science works in physics? I fairly spend 4 hours and found nothing, as well I found nothing about his graduation.

[Guest fountainhall]

fountainhall just check his specializations: he is expert in control on nuclear weapon and materials (means international trading and spreading) but have no idea about processes in reactors (as per his articles).

I thought you were stopping this discussion! If you are saying someone who has been a Presidential Adviser on nuclear weapons, is on CNN and several other networks as an adviser on what is going on in Japan - if this man does not know what goes on in a nuclear reactor, then I have completely lost your argument. Finish. End of Discussion. You can have the last word if you wish.

[Moses]

fountainhall please leave me to make decision which one my word will be "last", ok? Thank you.

 

For to be presidential adviser in nuclear trading person must be good politic and good economist. For to be presidential adviser in controlling weapon person must be good scout and politic.

 

Anyway: do you have any proof of his graduation or science publication in physic?

[Guest voldemar]

I do not want to participate in blame game and Fountainhall probably makes a lot of valid points. However, from what I gather even in the worst case scenario there is very little danger to people outside 20 miles zone around nuclear plant, let alone Tokyo or

Thailand. Putin just made a statement (based on various data including visit of Russian

experts to Fukushima) that there is no danger to Russian far East. In my view, what is underemphasized in the above discussion is amazing stability of Japanese nuclear plants under absolute disastful circumstances. Even in case of Chernobyl catastrophe the estimated number of overall victims (including those who allegedly died later from radiation-induced deceases) is several thousands. The number of hundreds of thousands to which Fountainhall refers is absolute nonsense. In case of Chernobyl reactor there was a huge explosion and no cover and everything went directly to atmosphere. In Japanese case all three active reactors are encapsulated in thick layer of reinforced cement..

The used rods over reactor 4 even in the worst case scenario of no water coverage can produce a contamination by heavy isotopes which will stay in small vicinity of the power plant...

Let me mention that I was in Kiev just two days after Chernobyl catastrophe and 25 years later still alive and kicking...

 

There are so many real problems we are facing that it is pity to waste so much time on imaginary ones...

[Guest fountainhall]

I do not want to participate in blame game and Fountainhall probably makes a lot of valid points. However, from what I gather even in the worst case scenario there is very little danger to people outside 20 miles zone around nuclear plant, let alone Tokyo

All this arose as a result of question I asked quite a few posts ago -

 

But what if there IS an explosion in the tubs due to the lack of water covering the spent fuel rods? Robert Alvarez states that this can most certainly happen after just several hours exposure to the air. In that event, he says vastly more cesium-137 will be released into the atmosphere than was the case at Chernobyl.

voldemar seems to answer that question. So the containment area will be small, despite the possibility of a lot more cesium being released into the atmosphere. And my trip to Tokyo at the end of next week seems to pose little danger - at least from what we know so far. Thank you.

[Guest voldemar]

So the containment area will be small, despite the possibility of a lot more cesium being released into the atmosphere. And my trip to Tokyo at the end of next week seems to pose little danger - at least from what we know so far. Thank you.

Have a safe trip. Unfortunate thing is that we still have no ability to predict earthquakes (after so may years of research and a lot of money spent).

[Guest hayase]

Fountainhall, may I advise you to postpone your visit to Tokyo for a while unless impossible. Apart from any danger of radioactive mess, Tokyo is now seriously suffering from power shortage and it affects life lines. You have to queue up hours to get on jam packed trains or buses, even taxis you have to wait at least 30 minutes. Sometimes there is no electricity for 3 to 4 hours a day so shops or restaurants are closed, there is no elevators/air-conditioning working during the power cut. Many corporations are shifting their headquarter functions to Osaka temporality. So if you are coming for business, you cannot do business. If you worry about your friends and want to help them, I am afraid to say but you will be a drag on them.

 

BTW I appreciate your concern on this tragedy.

[Guest fountainhall]

Fountainhall, may I advise you to postpone your visit to Tokyo for a while unless impossible.

Many thanks for your concern. I understand the difficulties of life there at present. I lived in the city for 2 years, loved it and know what problems major power outages will bring. But my best friends live there. They both work in good jobs in the city (one for a major US company), have a big apartment slap bang in Roppongi and they have no plans to move out - at present. I plan to stay with them for 5 days and then 3 in Kyoto. I have at most 2 business meetings and these are flexible. So I can handle power blackouts, as long as the shinkansen are running.

 

Besides, I have this great desire to see the cherry blossom once again and am quite happy with long walks between Shinjuku Gyoen Garden and places like the Aoyama Cemetary where I have vivid memories of people camping out in the evening under the blossom (I lived near there in Nishi-Azabu).

 

But if the situation deteriorates, I will certainly rethink.

[Guest fountainhall]

Let's hope this is not the start of a flood.

 

Public Health Ministry has detected a slight contamination of radioactive iodine (I131) in sweet potato imported from Japan, Public Health Minister Jurin Laksanawisit said Monday.

He said the import lot of the potato had been seized and destroyed.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Slight-radioactive-contamination-detected-in-impor-30151939.html

[Guest fountainhall]

Today American Airlines announced it is cutting 2 of its 6 daily flights to Japan. This reduction follows others like Qantas and Cathay Pacific, and rescheduling on the part of yet more. Lufthansa, for example, will not permit its crews to overnight at Tokyo

[Bob]

Too bad you had to cancel. Hope you don't lose any funds (deposits or whatever) because of it.

 

And it's quite unfortunate for Japan that, besides all the direct effects of the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis, they're also having to deal with a rather severe blow to their economy because tourists aren't showing up, companies are wary of buying Japanese foodstuffs, etc., etc.. They deserve a break one of these days.

[Guest fountainhall]

Thanks Bob. Every cost re Japan will be refunded. Unfortunately, I had prepaid 3 nights in a hotel in Hong Kong on the way back and that's non-refundable. But it's always one of the possible problems when you prepay at a cheaper non-refundable rate. Over the course of a year, I reckon I still gain, even if a few nights have to be cancelled.

 

I also feel really sorry for the people of Japan. Many major events, including top pop concerts and even the Metropolitan Opera which are due to visit Tokyo in the next couple of months are now considering cancelling. So the effect is being felt right through Japanese society and not just the tourism industry.

[Guest fountainhall]

Can this farce get any worse? Last week-end, the radioactivity in the seawater near the Fukushima nuclear plant reached 7.5 million times the legal limit. Now the operator, TEPCO, has asked for Russian aid to help cope with the contaminated mess.

 

Sergei Novikov, a spokesman for the Russia's state-run Rosatom Corporation, told reporters on Monday that Japan has expressed an interest in a floating radioactive waste treatment facility. The Landysh, as the barge is named, was reportedly built with Japanese assistance . . .

 

"The discharge from unit 2 is incredible. This is clearly water contaminated by direct contact with the core fuel, which means it is likely to contain heavier isotopes, such as plutonium," said Shaun Burnie, nuclear adviser to Greenpeace Germany. "The release of long-lived radionuclides will have a severe impact on both public health and coastal economies. The plutonium will persist in coastal sediments effectively for ever."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/05/fukushima-radioactivity-above-legal-limit

 

The obvious question is why it has taken so long for TEPCO to seek such assistance. But then, it has been scandalously slow off the mark in everything is has done since the tsunami. The protests on Tokyo’s streets at the week-end are probably going to increase. More worrying for the entire population, as indeed for other countries in the region, is the long-term effect this disposal of highly radiated water will have on fish stocks. Will eating sushi and sashimi soon be be a lottery, in much the same way as eating the highly poisonous fugu fish once was? Probably not, since there are now specially trained and licensed fugu fish filleters and only a handful of people now die each year! But who's going to risk eating any fish that could bring on cancer?

[Guest]

The obvious question is why it has taken so long for TEPCO to seek such assistance. But then, it has been scandalously slow off the mark in everything is has done since the tsunami.

 

The company is obviously ran by old farts on a slow consensual decision making basis. Totally unable to manage the crisis & too slow at many of the actions they have taken. For any aspect of the problem which they could not nail immediately, they should have been requesting help from all of the major industrial countries.

1 The government should sack the entire board of directors and send them up to do long shifts on hands on repairs inside the plant. They should see at least the same radiation exposure as their workforce.

2 They should appoint an overseas CEO to change the culture of the remaining company. France has a good track record with Nuclear.

3 Also, if the company cannot pay all the compensation required, it should be nationalised without compensation to shareholders. After all, moral hazard is required for a capitalist system to function effectively.