Japan Radiation: Dangers to the Region

[Guest fountainhall]

I am due to visit Japan for 9 days in April 1. My friends in Tokyo tell me the city is getting back to normal and there is so far no major concern about any radiation leak getting as far south. According to CNN, the winds over the next couple of days will be from east to west and so will blow any radiation out to sea. It's what happens thereafter that will be the problem. Whilst I love the country, I have a deep suspicion of Japanese officialdom. I wonder just how many people really know what is going on in those damaged Fukushima reactors. And why are the United Nations IAEA experts not on the scene?

 

The question some are now asking is how far from Fukushima would radiation fall if one or more of the reactors blow their stack as happened at Chernobyl. With Chernobyl, the Soviet Union worked hard to cover it all up. The first the world in general was aware of it was when radioactive particles carried in the prevailing winds began falling on Scandinavia and Scotland some days later. From what I read, however, the difference between Fukushima and Chernobyl is that Chernobyl had no containment chamber. As far as we know, there may be a slight rupture in the chamber of Fukushima's reactor 4. The others, we are again told, are still secure.

 

The BBC's website has a useful article about what has gone wrong and why a Chernobyl-type disaster is exceedingly unlikely. Equally, the Japanese plant has a concrete basin under the reactor chamber to catch and hold any molten nuclear fuel. So a 'China Syndrome' scenario is highly unlikely.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12732015

 

Here in Thailand we are pretty much secure from nuclear fallout. The prevailing wind in the north part of the eastern Pacific is from south west to north east. That's why flights from Bangkok to Tokyo at this time of year take about 5 hrs. 40 mins. whereas Tokyo to Bangkok flights into headwinds take 7 hrs. The headwinds are less strong over the summer months, but flights from Tokyo are always longer.

[Moses]

And why are the United Nations IAEA experts not on the scene?

 

Not only USA's but Chinese and Russian experts don't worry - Japanese reactor has not only different construction with Chernobyl's reactor, but different physical type as well.

 

Even if it will blow, radiation will be "short-living" coz of type or fuel. Cloud of radiation cannot reach China or USA or Russia - way will take 2-3 days and at that time radiation in cloud will fall down to low secure level.

[Guest GaySacGuy]

The experts have now been called in...better late than never. IAEA and US Dept. of Energy and security people should arrive in Japan shortly

 

It is too bad that people who are having really big problems are still too proud to ask for help until it is too late. It isn't only Japan. In the 1990 Oakland Hills fire in California, the Oakland Fire Dept. was offered help from Cal Fire in the form of air tankers, helicopters, engines and bull dozers as well as Office of Emergency Services Engines very early during their fire based on reports from lookouts and the weather. There reply was that we will handle this...out Dept. can handle any fire here in our city!! Of course several hours late, they were asking for all kinds of help!! At least they learned their lesson...there is now an instant aid agreement, and aircraft are dispatched on the initial dispatch during specific weather conditions. Hope Japan and the rest of the world can learn to ask for help early!!!!

[Moses]

IAEA and Russians are there few days already

[Guest fountainhall]

IAEA and Russians are there few days already

Not sure where your information came from, Moses, but according to the IAEA website, only yesterday did Japan formally request IAEA assistance

 

Japan Earthquake Update (15 March 2011, 20:35 UTC)

The Japanese government today requested assistance from the IAEA in the areas of environmental monitoring and the effects of radiation on human health, asking for IAEA teams of experts to be sent to Japan to assist local experts. Preparations for these missions are currently under way.

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html

 

So it seems IAEA representatives have still not arrived in Japan. On the other hand, specialists from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and from Russia arrived today.

[kokopelli]

Not only USA's but Chinese and Russian experts don't worry - Japanese reactor has not only different construction with Chernobyl's reactor, but different physical type as well.

 

Even if it will blow, radiation will be "short-living" coz of type or fuel. Cloud of radiation cannot reach China or USA or Russia - way will take 2-3 days and at that time radiation in cloud will fall down to low secure level.

 

I think you are kidding yourself, Moses. Unless you are a nuclear engineer or radiation physicist you should reconsider your remarks or give a better rational.

[macaroni21]

There's a news report that PM Kan Naoto was so dissatisfied with Tokyo Electric Power, he convened a panel headed by himself to take charge of the situation. Kan himself is no "take-charge" sort of man by nature and if he too had realised it was a needed move, it could only mean that TEP were making an utter hash of the job left to themselves.

 

Japanese companies, due to their slow, consensual management style, are probably among the worst companies when it comes to dealing with emergency situations that had not been rehearsed. (If preplanned and rehearsed, they are probably great at it.) My suspicion is that TEP

(1) has little information about what was going on inside Fukushima Daiichi;

(2) has no idea about the possible paths the incident can take (therefore poor anticipation of unfolding events)

(3) instinctively issues statements to the PM and public that convey a greater sense of certainty and control than warranted given (1) and (2) above, only to be

(4) surprised by every new turn of events.

 

Admittedly, it is a difficult situation with next to no precedent to learn from, but after five days a pattern has emerged. Assurances one minute. Surprise explosion/leak/radiation the next minute. More assurances, then another surprise. Their credibility is as damaged as the reactors.

[Guest]

You are right to distrust Japanese officials.

They cannot be relied upon to be open and transparent about these issues. I even suspect the no fly zone around the nuclear plant would be more aimed at stopping TV cameras than stopping spreading of radioactive material.

 

As for all the international experts, well many of them do make their living from Nuclear power.

I do however expect the safety situation would be quite clear by the time you travel there. Also, surely media sources would have direct access to geiger counter readings, so if there was major contamination in Tokyo, then it would be difficult to cover up.

 

All this is very unfortunate. Clearly the world requires Nuclear power for security of supply & reduction of CO2 emissions. The total incompetence of TEPCO is likely to result in more coal burning power stations and fewer Nuclear ones.

[Guest fountainhall]

You are right to distrust Japanese officials.

As more information comes out of Japan, it seems that once again officialdom has been paralysed and unable to cope with a rapidly escalating disaster. The Guardian today has some particularly worrying comments from acknowledged experts.

 

The EU's energy chief, Günther Oettinger, told the European parliament the situation was out of control. "We are somewhere between a disaster and a major disaster," he said. "There could be further catastrophic events, which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island." He said it was impossible to "exclude the worst", adding: "There is talk of an apocalypse and I think the word is particularly well chosen" . . .

 

Yuli Andreyev, former head of the agency tasked with cleaning up after Chernobyl, told the Guardian the Japanese had failed to grasp the scale of the disaster. He also said the authorities had to be willing to sacrifice nuclear response workers for the good of the greater public, and should not only be deploying a skeleton staff. "They don't know what to do," he said. "The personnel have been removed and those that remain are stretched."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/16/japan-nuclear-crisis-escalates

 

Most worrying of all, I think, is the appearance of the Emperor on television yesterday. He never appears giving an address on television. Was it merely to encourage the Japanese after they had endured the earthquake and tsunami? Or could it have been to prepare them for much worse news that is to come?

 

That's clearly speculation. But having been relatively optimistic of the outcome up till yesterday, I am now bracing myself for a lot more bad news coming out of Japan. Unless the nuclear issue has been resolved to the satisfaction of international experts by early next week, I will definitely postpone my trip.

[Guest fountainhall]

Now it's getting worse. I will not attempt to summarise the following article from the BBC's website, as it is inevitably complex. Whilst Tokyo Electric Power officials are saying that engineers will soon be able to restore power from the National Grid,

 

which should allow them to re-start water pumps, provided they have not been damaged by the tsunami or the hydrogen explosions . . . US Energy Secretary Steven Chu . . . suggested Fukushima was now more serious than the 1979 Three Mile Island incident in the US - and if contamination does spread outside the immediate area, that will prove to be the case.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12762608

[Moses]

I think you are kidding yourself, Moses. Unless you are a nuclear engineer or radiation physicist you should reconsider your remarks or give a better rational.

 

that what I told about:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

 

sorry, I can't explain beter coz of limits of my english

[Guest fountainhall]

that what I told about

I think the key with that chart is the accompanying description which states that it -

 

shows how weather patterns this week might disperse radiation from a continuous source in Fukushima, Japan.

In other words, it was speculation and not fact, and it only covered the period up to tomorrow. As we know, the winds have indeed been blowing from east to west in recent days, and so it probably would have been pretty accurate - if there had been a major release of radiation, which we are told there has not.

 

Moses, may I suggest that in future you insert websites in posts to avoid any misunderstanding.

[kokopelli]

I am a nuclear power advocate but after this screwup/disaster in Japan it is obvious that the designers did not plan for the worst or even plan at all for such an event.

 

So far there has been no reliable info on the worst case scenario that I am aware of.

[Moses]

fountainhall, you don't understand difference btw Chernobyl's case and now...

 

Chernobyl's variant is not possible now in Japan. In USSR it was explosion of uranium (fuel) in reactor (in fact it was just like a nuke bomb) and heavy long-living isotopes of cesium were distributed on big territory. That why big territory was in trash of radioactive long-living elements and has high level of radiation long time...

 

In Japan situation is absolutely different: even in worst situation there will be NO explosion of fuel.

 

Radiation will be distributed by short-leaving isotopes with life from few seconds and up to few days... It will be still very bad for people who is living around the stations, it will be bad for people who is living in range 50-200 km, but for rest - it will have not too much influence... I cannot be very precise in prognoses, but in general I'm talking now what people who is living not close to station will have dose of radiation which can be comp. with dose of one R-graphy or one-day visit of some caverns or with dose of 4-5 8-hours flights by airplane.

[bkkguy]

You are right to distrust Japanese officials. They cannot be relied upon to be open and transparent about these issues ... Clearly the world requires Nuclear power for security of supply & reduction of CO2 emissions. The total incompetence of TEPCO is likely to result in more coal burning power stations and fewer Nuclear ones.

 

you say we can't trust Japanese officials - so who can we trust? Chinese officials? Indian officials? Thai officials? these countries all need power and where looking to the nuclear option, and is Europe or the US any better?

 

I think the only thing that is clear at the moment is that most if not all countries are still fundamentally unable to implement nuclear power and mange nuclear waste in a safe enough fashion and throwing huge amounts of money at the problem over a long period of time has not really improved the situation!

 

there are other option than nuclear and coal - including reducing demand - and perhaps we should be throwing more money at these options rather than arguing that "Clearly the world requires Nuclear power"

 

bkkguy

[Guest fountainhall]

fountainhall, you don't understand difference btw Chernobyl's case and now...

Moses, please note I did write, "IF one or more of the reactors blow their stack as happened at Chernobyl". I then went on to explain why the situations at Fukushima and Chernobyl are very different. I certainly do not know much about nuclear power and different types of radiation, but I understand that, as we are being told, the problem seems at present not so much with the reactors but with the possible drainage of the water which should surround the spent fuel rods in containment pools. Hence the dumping of water. What happens if that is not successful, I have no idea.

 

you say we can't trust Japanese officials - so who can we trust? Chinese officials? Indian officials? Thai officials? these countries all need power and where looking to the nuclear option, and is Europe or the US any better?

Having lived in Japan, I can say that most countries would be better than Japan in a similar situation! The political culture in Japan is totally unlike elsewhere. It's a merry-go-round where politicians distrust the enormous power of the civil servants and vice versa. Bizarre as it may seem, this usually results in civil servants just not communicating with their political masters, and government departments not communicating with each other. And with the bureaucrats being used to five decades of Liberal Democrats, they are intensely distrustful of the present ruling party which finally took over from the LDs two years ago.

 

It is a part of Japan’s culture going back many centuries that the Japanese people react calmly in times of crisis. It is also a part of the post-war political make-up of the country that the leaders of the government, the bureaucracy and business are distrustful of, and almost totally unable to work with, each other in times of crisis.

 

There is an excellent article on this very topic in today’s New York Times - "Dearth of Candor From Japan’s Leadership"

 

The less-than-straight talk is rooted in a conflict-averse culture that avoids direct references to unpleasantness. Until recently, it was standard practice not to tell cancer patients about their diagnoses, ostensibly to protect them from distress. Even Emperor Hirohito, when he spoke to his subjects for the first time to mark Japan’s surrender in World War II, spoke circumspectly, asking Japanese to “endure the unendurable” . . .

 

The close links between politicians and business executives have further complicated the management of the nuclear crisis.

 

Powerful bureaucrats retire to better-paid jobs in the very industries they once oversaw, in a practice known as "amakudari" . . . Postwar Japan flourished under a system in which political leaders left much of the nation’s foreign policy to the United States and domestic affairs to powerful bureaucrats . . . But over the past decade or so, the bureaucrats’ authority has been greatly reduced, and corporations have lost both power and swagger as the economy has floundered . . .

 

(Yet) the only long-serving group within the government is the bureaucracy, which has been, at best, mistrustful of the party . . . “Its not in their DNA to work with anyone other than the Liberal Democrats,” said Noriko Hama, an economist at Daisho University.

 

“The mistrust of the government and Tepco (Tokyo Electric Power Company) was already there before the crisis, and people are even angrier now because of the inaccurate information they are getting,” said Susumu Hirakawa, a professor of psychology at Taisho University.

 

But the absence of a galvanizing voice is also the result of longstanding rivalries between bureaucrats and politicians, and between various ministries that tend to operate as fiefdoms.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17tokyo.html?ref=world

[Guest fountainhall]

Moses, I have just read an article that seems to conflict directly with your view.

 

The benchmark catastrophe amid peacetime nuclear disasters remains the explosion in the fourth reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear power station on April 26, 1986, in the Ukraine . . .

 

In 2009 the New York Academy of Sciences published Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment, a 327-page volume by three scientists, Alexey Yablokov and Vassily and Alexey Nesterenko. It is the definitive study to date.

 

"The calculations suggest that the Chernobyl catastrophe has already killed several hundred thousand human beings in a population of several hundred million that was unfortunate enough to live in territories affected by the fallout". . .

 

Set Fukushima next to Chernobyl and its ongoing lethal aftermath . . . Nuclear expert Robert Alvarez, who advised President Clinton on nuclear matters, writes this week that a single spent fuel rod pool - as at Fukushima - holds more cesium-137 than was deposited by all atmospheric nuclear weapons tests in the northern hemisphere combined, and an explosion in that pool could blast "perhaps three to nine times as much of these materials into the air as was released by the Chernobyl reactor disaster".

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/76471,news-comment,news-politics,alexander-cockburn-another-fukushima-in-america-not-if-but-when,2

 

I then searched for Robert Alvarez' original comments which appear in The Huffington Post. He states -

 

Along with the struggle to cool the reactors is the potential danger from an inability to cool Fukushima's spent nuclear fuel pools. They contain very large concentrations of radioactivity, can catch fire, and are in much more vulnerable buildings. The ponds, typically rectangular basins about 40 feet deep, are made of reinforced concrete walls four to five feet thick lined with stainless steel.

 

The boiling-water reactors at Fukushima -- 40-years-old and designed by General Electric -- have spent fuel pools several stories above ground adjacent to the top of the reactor. The hydrogen explosion may have blown off the roof covering the pool, as it's not under containment. The pool requires water circulation to remove decay heat. If this doesn't happen, the water will evaporate and possibly boil off. If a pool wall or support is compromised, then drainage is a concern. Once the water drops to around 5-6 feet above the assemblies, dose rates could be life-threatening near the reactor building. If significant drainage occurs, after several hours the zirconium cladding around the irradiated uranium could ignite.

 

Then all bets are off.

 

On average, spent fuel ponds hold five-to-ten times more long-lived radioactivity than a reactor core. Particularly worrisome is the large amount of cesium-137 in fuel ponds, which contain anywhere from 20 to 50 million curies of this dangerous radioactive isotope. With a half-life of 30 years, cesium-137 gives off highly penetrating radiation and is absorbed in the food chain as if it were potassium.

 

In comparison, the 1986 Chernobyl accident released about 40 percent of the reactor core's 6 million curies.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-alvarez/meltdowns-japan-earthquake_b_835121.html

 

20 to 50 million curies as against 2.4 million curies at Chernobyl? To me, this seems to indicate that the potential danger at Fukushima is in fact vastly greater than at Chernobyl. Am I wrong?

[Moses]

20 to 50 million curies as against 2.4 million curies at Chernobyl? To me, this seems to indicate that the potential danger at Fukushima is in fact vastly greater than at Chernobyl. Am I wrong?

 

it is not so important for other countries how much is inside of reactor if reactor cannot explode and distribute heavy isotopes with long-life...

[Guest fountainhall]

How are you so certain, Moses? I ask because the spent fuel rods are not in the reactors. They are stored in water pools at the top of the reactor buildings. These pools do not have the containment chambers of the main reactors. Since the roofs of some buildings have been blown off, the only thing stopping radiation spewing into the atmosphere is the water around these spent rods. But the fear now is that that water has drained off. That's why they are desperately trying to feed more water into the pools. If they do not achieve that, as Robert Alvarez says, "all bets are off"!

 

In an earlier post, you said, "Radiation will be distributed by short-leaving isotopes with life from few seconds and up to few days." Mr Alvarez says cesium-137 has a "a half-life of 30 years."

 

I just want to know how you are so sure of your facts, when Mr. Alvarez is one of the world's top nuclear experts.

[Moses]

In an earlier post, you said, "Radiation will be distributed by short-leaving isotopes with life from few seconds and up to few days." Mr Alvarez says cesium-137 has a "a half-life of 30 years."

 

I just want to know how you are so sure of your facts, when Mr. Alvarez is one of the world's top nuclear experts.

 

You still not get... cesium - is product of reaction of uranium... if there will be no explosion of fuel (used tubs with uranium in storage) - there will be NO cesium in atmosphere... that what I'm talking about...

 

They wants water to cool used tubs and to cover them by water to make shields against alpha and beta radiation - coz alpha and beta rays are dangerous only at short distance (for example even very strong alpha rays in air will have 2 times low energy in distance only 0.01 m from source of radiation)

 

There will be no cesium, uranium, plutonium and all other heavy isotopes in atmosphere if there will be no explosion of tubs. Rest isotopes like nobles gases and other light short-living isotopes are dangerous only for locals, but for long distance they aren't dangerous cos after few min\hours\days on the way they will become just normal chemical elements

 

I suggest you to look at WIKI about Chernobyl's accident.

 

And one more word about my position: I never mention in this discussion if situation isn't serous for Japan - in worst case they will have very big problems. But for far countries situation is not so serious like it was in Chernobyl's case.

[Guest fountainhall]

if there will be no explosion of fuel (used tubs with uranium in storage) - there will be NO cesium in atmosphere... that what I'm talking about....

OK. But what if there IS an explosion in the tubs due to the lack of water covering the spent fuel rods? Robert Alvarez states that this can most certainly happen after just several hours exposure to the air. In that event, he says vastly more cesium-137 will be released into the atmosphere than was the case at Chernobyl. And he chillingly adds, "Then all bets are off."

[Guest fountainhall]

“Right now this is more prayer than plan”

 

From today’s New York Times: "Radiation Spread Seen; Frantic Repairs Go On"

 

“What you are seeing are desperate efforts — just throwing everything at it in hopes something will work,” said one American official with long nuclear experience who would not speak for attribution. “Right now this is more prayer than plan” . . .

 

After a day in which American and Japanese officials gave radically different assessments of the danger from the nuclear plant, the two governments tried on Thursday to join forces. Experts met in Tokyo to compare notes. The United States, with Japanese permission, began to put the intelligence-collection aircraft over the site, in hopes of gaining a view for Washington as well as its allies in Tokyo that did not rely on the announcements of officials from the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates Fukushima Daiichi.

 

American officials say they suspect that the company has consistently underestimated the risk and moved too slowly to contain the damage . . .

 

So far the officials saw no signs of dropping temperatures. And the Web site of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, made it clear that there were no readings at all from some critical areas . . .

 

Getting the Japanese to accept the American detection equipment was a delicate diplomatic maneuver, which some Japanese officials originally resisted. But as it became clear that conditions at the plant were spinning out of control, and with Japanese officials admitting they had little hard evidence about whether there was water in the cooling pools or breaches in the reactor containment structures, they began to accept more help . . .

 

American officials have also worried that the spent-fuel pool at (the No. 2) reactor has run dry, exposing the rods. Japanese officials, however, have concentrated much of their recent efforts on Reactor No. 3, which has been intermittently releasing radiation from what the authorities believe may be a ruptured containment vessel around the reactor. Temperatures at that reactor’s spent fuel pool are also high.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/asia/18intel.html?_r=1&ref=global-home

[Guest]

OK. But what if there IS an explosion in the tubs due to the lack of water covering the spent fuel rods? Robert Alvarez states that this can most certainly happen after just several hours exposure to the air. In that event, he says vastly more cesium-137 will be released into the atmosphere than was the case at Chernobyl. And he chillingly adds, "Then all bets are off."

It is now 7 days after the earthquake and if an advanced country like Japan cannot get water to some fuel rod storage facilities, something is badly wrong.

Why does it take so long to run a power line 0.6km?

Why do they take so long to ship water cannons up from Tokyo? Why not more of them?

If a few people need to sacrifice themselves for the greater good, why are the TEPCO directors not stepping up to the plate?

Disaster management seems very weak.

 

Also, the information flow is diabolical. People have a right to know what is going on, especially those in Japan.

[Guest fountainhall]

If a few people need to sacrifice themselves for the greater good, why are the TEPCO directors not stepping up to the plate?

Disaster management seems very weak.

Some people have stepped up to the plate, but it's certainly not the Directors of TEPCO. No doubt they will hold a press conference in the fullness of time, resign en masse, bow and apologise for their mistakes. But at least they will still be alive. Just as at Chernobyl, it's a group of dedicated employees sacrificing themselves. As this poignant article points out, it is known that five have already died.

 

'Nuclear Ninja' Suicide Mission To Save Japan

 

A handful of "heroes" working to avert a total meltdown at Japan's crippled nuclear plant have told loved ones not to expect them to return home.

 

The Japanese media have dubbed the elite squad of 180 technicians the "Samurai Warriors" and even the "Nuclear Ninjas" as they try to save their country.

 

One man, having already been exposed to dangerous levels of radiation, told his wife: "Please continue to live well, I cannot be home for a while."

 

While the young daughter of one of the workers wrote on Twitter: "My dad went to the nuclear plant. I have never heard my mother cry so hard." She begged: "Please dad, come back alive."

 

Nuclear experts have said the men are on a suicide mission and that not even their airtight suits can save them from contamination. And if they survive, they will face a lifetime of health problems.

 

But the Fukushima Fifty, named as they are on a rotation of 50 at a time, are working around the clock to stop the plant's reactors from overheating by taking it in turns to cool them with water.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20110318/twl-nuclear-ninja-suicide-mission-to-sav-3fd0ae9.html

 

As to Japan's disaster management being very weak, I think I answered that in an earlier post -

 

It is also a part of the post-war political make-up of the country that the leaders of the government, the bureaucracy and business are distrustful of, and almost totally unable to work with, each other in times of crisis.

[kokopelli]

One thing does seem clear, and that is the technicians and engineers at the damaged nuclear plants have put their lives in jeopardy and most likely have suffered radiation damage. As others have said, why the delays in providing electrical power to the plant? It is easy for us to judge, but when the whole truth emerges, there is likely to be a series of errors that compounded this disaster.