reader Posted November 1 Posted November 1 From The Nation / The Straits Times With the US presidential election approaching on Nov 5, US bureau chief Bhagyashree Garekar and The Straits Times’ bureaus in Asia explore the impact on trade and security in the region under a prospective Harris or second Trump administration. Just four days after the 47th American president moves into the White House in 2025, a pair of VIPs from China will begin receiving a stream of excited visitors. The much-awaited debut of the giant pandas on Jan 24 at Washington’s Smithsonian National Zoo, where they are now under quarantine, could hardly be timed better. The furry emblems of China’s soft power have charmed Americanssince the Nixon years, but the bar is higher for the guileless Bao Liand Qing Bao. The relationship between the two great powers has frayed to the point of breakage. And most of their Asian partners, bound to both countries through trade and security, wonder if it is all only downhill from now. Expectations are low, no matter who wins the deadlocked Nov 5 election, but it would seem that Asia cautiously views Vice-President Kamala Harris as the better option. Former president Donald Trump’s second stint could come with massive tariff hikes and another trade war, with severe consequences for China-centric manufacturing networks across Asia. His wish for a weaker US dollar could weaken Southeast Asian exports. And the pressure on Asian nations to choose sides in the China-US rivalry could escalate quickly as Trump prioritises competition with China. Harris may walk further along the more predictable path laid by President Joe Biden. She will likely target sanctions on a select, but growing, number of industries deemed critical to US economic security. Her consultative, multilateral approach will at least feel less abrasive. But neither candidate packs policies that can be viewed as ideal, said Asian and American officials, diplomats, businesses and think-tankers in interviews with The Straits Times. Many would agree with Malaysia’s Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Liew Chin Tong’s assessment that the difference between Ms Harris and Trump is a matter “not of direction, but intensity”. Neither can turn back the clock to a simpler, unipolar world. “Trump will take a far more isolationist and America First approach, but it doesn’t mean Harris will be able to take the world back to 1995 when WTO was formed,” Liew said, referring to the hopes spurred for a reduction of trade barriers and expansion of global trade at the birth of the World Trade Organisation. Continues at https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40042870 floridarob 1 Quote
