Moses Posted October 28 Posted October 28 https://kalshi.com/ https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730131665934 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 8 hours ago, Moses said: https://kalshi.com/ https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730131665934 I mean, they sure got the betting right in 2016, right? 🤪 Have to say, @Moses. I am disappointed in you. I mean, I know you back Genocide Man and what not. But this should be a matter of Russian pride. Quote While attending a dinner party at Caltech in 1981, Allan Lichtman met Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a leading Russian geophysicist. Keilis-Borok was interested in applying his prediction techniques to liberal-democratic political systems. This was not possible for him to do within the Soviet Union, which was a one-party state, and a guest at the party referred him to Lichtman. And the rest is history. Keilis-Borok was also involved in the the Test Ban Treaty, which is how he first learned about US democracy. He is a symbol of why it would be a better world if Americans like Lichtman and Russian like him could just cooperate on peace, prosperity, and progress. When bad old Genocide Man dies, and Genocide World collapses of rot like the Soviet Union did, hopefully we can get back to that. Meanwhile, the system Lichtman and Keilis-Borok developed based on fundamentals has worked every time. But if you wanna lose money betting on Trump, go ahead. Genocide Man sure bet on Trump. It's so sweet that you and Genocide Man can be partners in crime, and lose together. Quote
Moses Posted October 29 Author Posted October 29 6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: Have to say, @Moses. I am disappointed in you. I mean, I know you back Genocide Man and what not. But this should be a matter of Russian pride. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 1 hour ago, Moses said: You come here to back Genocide Man, and explain genocide away. There's no debate I can win about how Genocide Man is scum: moral scum who is turning the Russian Federation into scum and rot. Thanks to his program for the mass annihilation of Russians. And the mass slaughter of innocent women and children in a county Genocide Man says he loves and cherishes. No debate to be had with you. Because you just defend genocide. And you do it consistently. And you are telling ME not to get nasty? And I obviously won the debate that these people betting on Trump are just as smart as all those people saying Hillary was a sure bet in 2016. So all you can do, like Trump, is try to change the subject. And hope no one cares, because they are like Hitler's sheep. Quote
Moses Posted October 29 Author Posted October 29 1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said: And you are telling ME not to get nasty? Dear, it is forum's rule. When you registered on this forum, you checked the box "I have read and agree with the forum rules". A man should keep his promises, this is how adults and responsible individuals act. Are Democrats and Jesuits the same thing? "The end justifies the means"? Steevee... What you will do if Trump will win? EmmetK 1 Quote
EmmetK Posted October 29 Posted October 29 538.com also has President Trump heavily favoured to win: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ TRUMP2024 MAGA Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 18 minutes ago, EmmetK said: 538.com also has President Trump heavily favoured to win: LOL. Heavily favored: 54/46. Silver was right about 2016 for sure. Clinton won. It was Lichtman who was wrong in 2016, when he predicted Hitler admirer Trump would win. 😲 But at least we know Trump admires Puerto Ricans. What a disgusting mess of a human being the despicable felon is. Quote
EmmetK Posted October 29 Posted October 29 3 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: LOL. Heavily favored: 54/46. Silver was right about 2016 for sure. Clinton won. It was Lichtman who was wrong in 2016, when he predicted Hitler admirer Trump would win. 😲 But at least we know Trump admires Puerto Ricans. What a disgusting mess of a human being the despicable felon is. We all see the irony in you, who used phrases like "Jew murderer" and "Jew vermin", and was rightfully suspended in the other site, for your anti-Semitic rant, referring to others as Hitler admirers. You tried to walk it back, say it was taken out of context, but none of that worked! Hitler would be very proud of your verbiage! TRUMP2024 MAGA stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 47 minutes ago, EmmetK said: We all see the irony in you, who used phrases like "Jew murderer" and "Jew vermin", and was rightfully suspended in the other site, for your anti-Semitic rant, referring to others as Hitler admirers. You tried to walk it back, say it was taken out of context, but none of that worked! Hitler would be very proud of your verbiage! TRUMP2024 MAGA And we all don't trust you, and know like Hitler admirer Trump you constantly lie and make shit up. Same deal as when Gen. Kelly, who was Trump's own Chief of Staff, said Trump is a fascist. What does Trump do? Attack Kelly, and lie. Trump just lies, and lies, and lies. Felon, felon, felon. Which is why he will lose. You have learned your lessons well. You, too, are a liar and loser. Woo hoo! So here you are, lying your Hitler admirer admiring ass off and making shit up. I made no anti-Semitic rant, any more than Gen. Kelly said "I am a fascist, and fascism is good." Exactly the opposite. Let's dredge that up, though, since it also explains why racist felon Trump will lose. Seriously, why do you admire racist Hitler admirers? That was about a thread in which one of your conservative partners in hate and cruelty was defending The Birth Of A Nation. And arguing it's no big deal that it is the most racist film of all time. I said the racist tropes in The Birth Of A Nation are just as bad as the anti-Semitic tropes in The Wandering Jew, which is widely considered the most anti-Semitic film of all time. So, like racist lying felon Trump, you lie and defend yourself by attacking. You take what I said out of context and flip it around. Lie, lie, lie. Attack, attack, attack. By the way, wasn't Roy Cohn Jewish? Don't take this out of context. But when God sent us Gay hater and Trump trainer Roy Cohn, he was not sending us his best. 😉 But Trump, unlike me, actually admires Hitler. He said the Jew Killer did good things. He wants generals that are Nazis, obedient and loyal, like Hitler had. Why are you attacking me for attacking anti-Semitism, while you are praising Jew killer admirer Trump? Despicable racist lying felon Trump ain't got nothing on Goebbels, and he just proved it again. Puerto Rico is garbage. Latino men are raping thugs who just fuck and fuck and fuck and make babies and cum too much. It's gross, racist, vulgar, and insulting. Name a Republican with any morals whatsoever who is not attacking Trump for being a racist moral sewer. Even Mike Johnson, who backs Trump's violent anti-democratic rhetoric, ain't trying to explain away this racist bile. But your lying Jew killer admirer admiring ass will lie and attack me, and say I said Puerto Rico is garbage. When all I am doing is quoting the racist Trump invited to say racist shit at his Hitler-like thug rally. That is what Trump is. A despicable man, just like McConnell said. America does not deserve four more years of Trump's lies, crimes, racism, and hate. Quote
Moses Posted October 29 Author Posted October 29 14 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: you constantly lie and make shit up 14 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: You, too, are a liar and loser. 15 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: So here you are, lying your Hitler admirer admiring ass off and making shit up. 17 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Felon, felon, felon. 17 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Lie, lie, lie. 17 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Attack, attack, attack. Steeeveee... are you ok? Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 1 minute ago, Moses said: Steeeveee... are you ok? Again, tell me how genocide is a good thing? I think genocide is nasty. I think Genocide Man is nasty. I think Genocide World is a nasty place people flee. If Trump had the oligarchy he wants, and you have in Genocide World, you are probably right that people would not be able to say nasty things about Trump. Just like they will be killed if they sat nasty things about Genocide Man. Quote
Moses Posted October 29 Author Posted October 29 Stevie, I showed your posts to my AI and asked how it sees you. It's a graphical AI, so I got pictures back. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members unicorn Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 I find it a bit silly to be "debating" this issue. Sadly, it looks as though Trump will probably win. Smooth talking by a lifelong con-man will probably win over facts. I'm moving some of my assets over from stocks to bonds, since Trump's tariff frenzy will probably cause a downturn in the great economy which Biden has left us with, despite what he inherited. But this is purely a matter of informed speculation, not of opinion, so there doesn't seem to be much sense in arguing. If one actually wants to be productive about it, one could help the campaign. Criticizing someone's predictions seems pointless. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 58 minutes ago, Moses said: Stevie, I showed your posts to my AI and asked how it sees you. It's a graphical AI, so I got pictures back. Quite Stylish ! stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 20 minutes ago, unicorn said: I find it a bit silly to be "debating" this issue. Sadly, it looks as though Trump will probably win. Smooth talking by a lifelong con-man will probably win over facts. I'm moving some of my assets over from stocks to bonds, since Trump's tariff frenzy will probably cause a downturn in the great economy which Biden has left us with, despite what he inherited. But this is purely a matter of informed speculation, not of opinion, so there doesn't seem to be much sense in arguing. If one actually wants to be productive about it, one could help the campaign. Criticizing someone's predictions seems pointless. While I totally agree, it will be what it will be, I am trying to be a bit more optimistic, although my GUT is telling me otherwise. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 29 Members Posted October 29 2 hours ago, unicorn said: I'm moving some of my assets over from stocks to bonds, since Trump's tariff frenzy will probably cause a downturn in the great economy which Biden has left us with, despite what he inherited. But this is purely a matter of informed speculation, not of opinion, so there doesn't seem to be much sense in arguing. If one actually wants to be productive about it, one could help the campaign. Two positive thoughts: Will Rollins, and TMF. I have been donating all Fall to five candidates: Harris, Brown, Tester, Rollins, and Mucarsel-Powell in Florida. I think I misjudged that she had the best chance of pulling off an upset. As I think @Pete1111 pointed out, Dan Osborne probably has the best chance to pull off an upset that could redeem a Tester loss. Rollins is on a roll. Politico just wrote a nice piece on him. Will Rollins was written off in 2022. Now, he could help deliver a Democratic majority. In the past few cycles I spread my donations thinner, including a number of SoCal House candidates. Most of whom represent seats that Democrats won in 2018, in a blue wave, but then lost in both 2020 and 2022. This year I just figured I would Go Gay on one toss up House race. He's got a very good chance of winning. TMF is a 3X exchange traded fund based on bond rates. It appears to be at the bottom of a five year bear market. As interest rates come down, it should do well. TLT is similar. But it's a safer bet with less risk and less reward, since it does not have the 3X oomph. If we have a recession, either should do well. If we do not have a recession, and instead the market soars, I still think rates will drift down. So either TMF or TLT will drift up. It's hard to see how they are a bad bet, either way, since both seem to be poised for the end of a bear market. I started dollar cost averaging into TMF at about $50 a few months ago. In September when 10 year rates fell to 3.6 % TMF got up to $64, and I was something like +10 % on paper. Now rates are back up to 4.3 %, and TMF cratered to $47. I actually just bought more of it today at $46. So I am about 10 % down on paper. But as Buffet says, when the price of hamburger goes down, buy more. My geeky stock loving nephew has a theory that TMF will set an even lower low than it has, meaning under $40, because we'll have this big blow off stock top soon. So all the money will flood, for a while, from bonds to stocks. Seems a bit too optimistic to me. But I think bonds makes sense, for sure. And TMF and TLT are cheap right now. But back to our fascist Hitler admiring loser, I am still with Alan Lichtman. Harris is going to win. We know for sure the polls and betting markets have no track record of success, with 2016 being the best example. By the way, even Real Clear Politics now says Harris is leading in Michigan again, by a fraction of a point. Same as Trump is leading in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. By a fraction of a point. So it is a toss up, as Rove and Axelrod both say. Not that they know anything about winning the Presidency, other than 16 consecutive years of winning. There's been a lot of talk about how Harris lost whatever edge she had in favorability ratings in newer polls. But 538 says she is viewed unfavorably by 48 %, compared to 52 % who see Trump unfavorably. Same old same old for Trump. It's possible that a lot of people who view Trump unfavorably, but do NOT view Harris unfavorably, will vote for Trump. And maybe it is a mistake for Harris and surrogates to keep saying "fascist". Beyond doubt, it is better when Trump's unhinged and ugly statements come out of his own mouth. Or those of his Nazi wannabe surrogates at his Hitler wannabe rally. Quote
Members Pete1111 Posted October 30 Members Posted October 30 Rollins could have won in 2022 if Dems got out the vote. Rollins' campaign is trying to change that this time. Vote Blue Everyone vote! stevenkesslar 1 Quote
EmmetK Posted November 6 Posted November 6 On 10/29/2024 at 4:48 PM, stevenkesslar said: Two positive thoughts: Will Rollins, and TMF. I have been donating all Fall to five candidates: Harris, Brown, Tester, Rollins, and Mucarsel-Powell in Florida. I think I misjudged that she had the best chance of pulling off an upset. As I think @Pete1111 pointed out, Dan Osborne probably has the best chance to pull off an upset that could redeem a Tester loss. Harris? Brown? Tester? Rollins? Mucarsel-Powell? Osborne? That's FIVE LOSERS and one who is losing and will likely lose when all the votes have been counted. Congratulations. You're batting 1000 ! Do you get your advice from Allan Lichtman? LOL. ...........................THE VILLAGE IDIOT.................................... TRUMP2024 MAGA Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted November 7 Members Posted November 7 2 hours ago, EmmetK said: Harris? Brown? Tester? Rollins? Mucarsel-Powell? Osborne? That's FIVE LOSERS and one who is losing and will likely lose when all the votes have been counted. Congratulations. You're batting 1000 ! Do you get your advice from Allan Lichtman? LOL. ...........................THE VILLAGE IDIOT.................................... TRUMP2024 MAGA Glad you are modeling the grace that Mark Halperin is hoping Donald Trump exhibits. Which Trump basically did last night, like when he won in 2016. We'll see how long that lasts. Here's two reasons you shouldn't be such a graceless clown. Which means nothing, of course, since you are what you are. Just like Trump. Trump did not win by a 5 million vote landslide, as you stated on another thread. Harris is beating him by about 2 million votes in California, with about half the vote there in. So I'm guessing Trump wins by maybe 3 million votes when it is all counted. And probably just under 50 % of the vote. Which is a very nice symbol of the fact that the country is split in half. Just like the swing states, and the Senate races in them, have flipped back and forth on the edge of a knife for three election cycles in a row. The nice part about Trump winning a clear electoral college and popular vote victory is we don't have to go through four years of lies and psychodrama about a "stolen election". Not that anyone would ever do that. 😲 Congratulations, and enjoy your celebration. For what it's worth, I did send an email to a niece who is all in on MAGA, congratulating her. It was sincere. And the kind of thing I've done a lot in my life. My only hesitation in offering congratulations is that it was inherently also a critique of her, as well. Since she, like most MAGA folk, could never accept the fact that Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020. She of course won't see it that way. You won't see it this way either. But it is kind of funny that when Biden wins 51 % of the vote, and a 7 million vote margin, it's a stolen election. When Trump wins by 3 million votes, it's a landslide. It would actually be very funny. But for the fact that Trump's lies were a threat to democracy, and did result in the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating. I'm hoping Trump just stays focused on his priority, which is delivering tax cuts to himself and his billionaire donors. But if we do get to the stuff about Cheney and guns pointed at her face or Pelosi and arrest, all your grace and warmth will have been for naught. So sad. And thanks for the compliment on my money well spent. Lots of Republicans, including Team Trump analysts and consultants, have been saying that with so many people saying the country and their personal finances are worse off, any other Republican would have won a race like this by five or ten points. A real landslide. They have a point. But for Kamala Harris and all the money and volunteers she brought in, I do think this could have been a lot worse. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted November 7 Members Posted November 7 Isnt it funny and interesting that as soon as Trump realized he had "WON", he stopped claiming the election was rigged and there was rampant election fraud going on ? It was always about the Victory, and never about the Truth. But the snake oil saleman pulled off convincing the clueless bystanders ONCE AGAIN ! stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Moses Posted November 7 Author Posted November 7 6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: And probably just under 50 % of the vote. You live in some parallel reality. Democrats must admit - the elections are lost, lost disastrously. Democrats need to open their eyes, flooded with lies from pro-democracy media, and strictly ask their party leaders - why did you allow this? Why did your egoism outweigh the interests of the party and the country? Why did you betray us? EmmetK and stevenkesslar 1 1 Quote
EmmetK Posted November 7 Posted November 7 2 hours ago, Moses said: You live in some parallel reality. Democrats must admit - the elections are lost, lost disastrously. Democrats need to open their eyes, flooded with lies from pro-democracy media, and strictly ask their party leaders - why did you allow this? Why did your egoism outweigh the interests of the party and the country? Why did you betray us? Indeed! The election results crushed the hearts of the far left, including the Hollywood elites, professional race hustlers, and the fake news media. But also, the realization that Trump's victory is the start of a new Republican coalition of working class people of all races and religions that could very well cement victories for the GOP for many elections to come. The hard left, which includes dem fund raisers and most of the democrat base, will never understand that hard working Americans were sick of Biden's open border policy that flooded our country with unvetted illegals including sex traffickers, drug dealers, murderers rapists, etc. American citizenship is something to be EARNED, not obtained by walking across a border. American voters sat back in horror as they saw their taxes were used to pay to house and feed the Biden/Harris' unvetted 20+ million illegals who were also given free debit cards, phones, day care, etc. Under Trump, they will be repatriated to their home counties. American voters were sick of Biden/Harris and the left trying to impose their culture on us. DEI, Men in girls bathrooms, men in girls locker rooms; biological men competing against girls in sports. Black and Latin males were not buying into the left-wing ideals. They will come home to the GOP. And the country owes a debt of gratitude to President Trump for creating this new multi-racial new coalition that includes a broad swath of common sense working class people. For the far left, there is a silver lining. As the new Trump majority coalition is taking shape, the left should take comfort knowing that although the democrat base is cracking due to its own failures, they will always have the votes of the trans inmates. Remember them? The people that Kamala promised US taxpayer funding for their sex change surgery. How did that promise work out for the left? Maybe Allan Lichtman, aka the Village Idiot, the totally disgraced Karnak of the 21st century, has a key for that answer! TRUMP 2024 MAGA Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted November 8 Members Posted November 8 14 hours ago, Moses said: Democrats need to open their eyes, flooded with lies from pro-democracy media, and strictly ask their party leaders - why did you allow this? Why did your egoism outweigh the interests of the party and the country? Why did you betray us? Yup. By losing an election to Vlad's crony dictator wannabe by about half the number of votes Biden won by in 2020, we are almost as bad as your mass murdering Genocide Man, I guess. Thanks for making me laugh, Genocide Freak! Quote
Moses Posted November 8 Author Posted November 8 Lemming, you still trust to your mass medias? They lied to you and it is clear visible from election's results. They promised to you heaven and you now in the Hell. Quote
Moses Posted November 8 Author Posted November 8 On 10/29/2024 at 4:07 AM, stevenkesslar said: Meanwhile, the system Lichtman and Keilis-Borok developed based on fundamentals has worked every time. But if you wanna lose money betting on Trump, go ahead. On 10/29/2024 at 11:48 PM, stevenkesslar said: I am still with Alan Lichtman How do you feel now? Quote
