Members stevenkesslar Posted October 22 Members Posted October 22 4 hours ago, Suckrates said: It seems to be what America has become, and what Americans want..... A minority in America ...................... I'll add a fact, and a theory. The fact is that Lichtman has been right every time he made a prediction, and he is predicting Harris. You can put an asterisk next to Al Gore. And if the 2024 election hangs on 1000 votes in Pennsylvania, like 2000 did in Florida, well it's possible we could get another version of that. But it is extremely unlikely, even in these crazy days. I'll add Michael Moore as a kind of housewives' tale prediction. He says Kamala will win because of a wall of women. Why believe these two? The key thing about Lichtman's argument is he claims, I think correctly, that as a historian he has figured out something about the structure of US elections. And at the simplest level it boils down to the fact that if the current Administration has done a good enough job, they get a second term. And it's not about whether Trump entertains people at McDonalds, or Harris wins the day on free media. It's about the economy, and getting laws passed, and having a unified party, and other important shit. In other words, we actually do have moral standards, and governance standards, and values actually matter. All this other stuff is noise. So, right or wrong, I am believing that Lichtman is correct yet again.. Moore gives me a kind of "crazy Grandma in the attic who is always right" way of thinking about the same thing. He sensed that there was a big problem in 2016 and Trump was actually inspiring a lot of people at the grassroots in Michigan who Hillary was just not connecting with. He was equally right about 2020 and 2022, which was supposed to be a bad year for Democrats. In fact, women politicians rocked in Michigan in 2022 and won all the big offices - at the worst point in our recent inflation adventure, and despite polls that said otherwise. So everything Lichtman and Moore are saying sounds very plausible. I'll add a third person with awesome political instincts: James Carville. He was crawling out of his skin six months ago about Biden and his chances. Now he is emphatically saying Harris will win. How does he now? He doesn't. But he has pretty good Spidey sense about these things. Including how Americans perceive the economy, stupid. I think it's probably true that Harris has neutralized that issue with most people who are undecided and willing to give her a real hearing. What connects all these dots for me is the level of disgust people feel for Trump, his values, his actions, his past unhinged leadership, and every sick and foul and wrong thing the felon and liar stands for. We have polls telling us this is very real. I just have to listen to my own moderate brothers open their mouths about this guy and I know it is true. So I don't find it hard to believe that somehow the 52 % of Americans who have been saying consistently and increasingly emphatically since 2017 that Trump is a bad leader are going to somehow figure out how to shit can this unhinged menace once and for all. And it will be because of that list of Trump's true sick values I posted above. From "grab 'em by the pussy" to "arrest Nancy Pelosi" while some MAGA nut hammers her husband's brain in, the majority of Americans feel deeply that this is not what America is. And this is not what we want America to be. I think that America is going to win. It always does, in the end. No matter how much bad shit we have to go through to get there. We have a prosecutor who stands for law and order and is a paragon of the American success story. We have a felon who stands for everything bad and corrupt and law breaking and vile about America. Who has no character and many lifelong psychological problems that boil down to ME ME ME. I think this is what MLK was predicting, as well. His dream is coming true. Biden may be old and unpopular. But I think we will learn this is what America wants to be. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted October 22 Members Posted October 22 Carville, being interviewed by Ari Melber yesterday seemed doubtful and VERY concerned.... Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 22 Members Posted October 22 4 hours ago, Suckrates said: Carville, being interviewed by Ari Melber yesterday seemed doubtful and VERY concerned.... Not sure where you got that. This was the most recent interview I've seen where Carville says, "I think she will win." That's pretty clear. He also goes off on your point: what a fascist "lock up Democrats" wannabe Trump is. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted October 22 Members Posted October 22 39 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Not sure where you got that. This was the most recent interview I've seen where Carville says, "I think she will win." That's pretty clear. He also goes off on your point: what a fascist "lock up Democrats" wannabe Trump is. IF people turn out, thats the unknown, whose base is more motivated, and while you would think its Kamala's, I think Trumps henchmen are on a mission to teach Dems a lesson, and be able to laugh and gloat.... IF, IF, IF !!! Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 22 Members Posted October 22 3 hours ago, Suckrates said: IF, IF, IF !!! Quizas, quizas, quizas! Pete1111 1 Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted October 25 Author Posted October 25 On 10/22/2024 at 10:00 AM, stevenkesslar said: Not sure where you got that. This was the most recent interview I've seen where Carville says, "I think she will win." That's pretty clear. He also goes off on your point: what a fascist "lock up Democrats" wannabe Trump is. Vengeance is Trump's air, without it he disappears in a cloud of sulphury smoke. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted October 25 Members Posted October 25 10 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said: Vengeance is Trump's air, without it he disappears in a cloud of sulphury smoke. And its that vengeance thats taking him FAR in this race. If it aint broke, dont fix it. right ? 😬 Quote
EmmetK Posted October 26 Posted October 26 Cackling Kamala's FOX NEWS interview was.... worse than/better than: Her CNN Town Hall with Allison Cooper Dementia Joe Biden's debate performance Tampon Tim's attempt at loading a simple shotgun TRUMP 2024 MAGA Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 26 Members Posted October 26 5 hours ago, EmmetK said: Cackling Kamala's FOX NEWS interview was.... worse than/better than: I don't trust you. You admire a Jew killer admirer. Why? It's sick. Even McConnell calls your Jew killer admirer is despicable. I'd much rather believe Fox News. Polls show voters have more favorable view of Harris than Trump Why do you not get that most Americans don't have a favorable view of your Jew killer admirer? Quote
EmmetK Posted October 26 Posted October 26 15 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: I don't trust you. You admire a Jew killer admirer. Why? It's sick. Even McConnell calls your Jew killer admirer is despicable. I'd much rather believe Fox News. Polls show voters have more favorable view of Harris than Trump Why do you not get that most Americans don't have a favorable view of your Jew killer admirer? Lol... You vlcan repeat the name Hitler as often as you want... calling Trump deranged didn't work, calling him a fascist didn't help, and your Hail Mary with the Hitler reference is not moving the polls one iota. Back to the playbook...Maybe you can get some advice from your loser friend, Socrates hack Alan Lichtman... lol. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 26 Members Posted October 26 1 hour ago, EmmetK said: You vlcan repeat the name Hitler as often as you want... calling Trump deranged didn't work, calling him a fascist didn't help, and your Hail Mary with the Hitler reference is not moving the polls one iota. Why won't you tell us why you back a Jew killer admirer? Trump lost in 2020. Lichtman was right in 2020, and every other time So I have the facts on my side. You're the one backing the Jew killer admirer and loser. I Quote
EmmetK Posted October 26 Posted October 26 39 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Why won't you tell us why you back a Jew killer admirer? Trump lost in 2020. Lichtman was right in 2020, and every other time So I have the facts on my side. You're the one backing the Jew killer admirer and loser. I You can say what you want, and call him what you want. In ten days, the world will be calling him Mr. President-elect! Quote
Moses Posted October 26 Posted October 26 15 minutes ago, EmmetK said: the world will be calling him Mr. President-elect! ...or not 55 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Lichtman was right in 2020, and every other time Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (you may read that everywhere - it is mandatory warning by law) Quote
KeepItReal Posted October 26 Posted October 26 43 minutes ago, Moses said: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (you may read that everywhere - it is mandatory warning by law) True - mandatory for investments. But what @EmmetK is doing is not investing - he is short term speculating. Quote
Moses Posted October 26 Posted October 26 4 hours ago, KeepItReal said: True - mandatory for investments. it isn't about investments, it is about Lichtman... Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 26 Members Posted October 26 51 minutes ago, Moses said: it isn't about investments, it is about Lichtman... Lichtman is the first to admit he gets butterflies in his stomach every time. He is never smug about his own fallability. Genocide Man and his cruel mass murder of men, women, and children in Ukraine will actually be an important factor. We know that Trump is on the side of Genocide Man, and he is willing to throw NATO under the bus. He's made that clear. Harris will fight for international norms, and a coalition against genocide and thuggish authoritarian rule. Lots of Republican women will vote for Harris because they are disgusted by Putin's genocide of women and children. This translates directly into one of Lichtman's foreign policy/was keys, which he says will help Harris win. In effect, Harris will win because so many Americans who would happily vote for a Republican will vote for Harris. Like Liz Cheney. Precisely because Genocide Man is a monster who eats women and children, and they feel this beast has to be stopped. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 26 Members Posted October 26 6 hours ago, EmmetK said: You can say what you want, and call him what you want. In ten days, the world will be calling him Mr. President-elect! Okay, I will. Trump is a Jew killer admirer. His own generals keep saying it, along with the fact that he is a fascist and a threat to American security. The self congratulation about an election Trump has not won, and which is actually as close to tied as you can get, speaks to Trump reality. Which is to say, reality is any lie the fascist wannabe wants it to be. And the cult that likes the authoritarian liar just falls in line. That is what is driving this mistaken cultish theology that Trump won already in 2024, just like he won in 2020. You folks are happy to believe your own bullshit. It was the same with Hitler. You still haven't explained why you support a Jew killer admirer. Please do. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted October 26 Members Posted October 26 46 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: Okay, I will. Trump is a Jew killer admirer. His own generals keep saying it, along with the fact that he is a fascist and a threat to American security. The self congratulation about an election Trump has not won, and which is actually as close to tied as you can get, speaks to Trump reality. Which is to say, reality is any lie the fascist wannabe wants it to be. And the cult that likes the authoritarian liar just falls in line. That is what is driving this mistaken cultish theology that Trump won already in 2024, just like he won in 2020. You folks are happy to believe your own bullshit. It was the same with Hitler. You still haven't explained why you support a Jew killer admirer. Please do. It doesnt matter that Trump supports a killer of women and children, is a racist, misogynist and sex offender, Liar, cheat and fraud, and outright buffoonish clown that has no respect for Democracy or America. Its funny that he claims America is a shithole, garbage can country of corrupt people and government YET, he wants to be President of it. Makes you wonder what the motive really is ? Certainly not to help people because everything he proposes is to make peoples lives WORSE, especially people of color. Now in the last days, as he loses his last brain cells , he has nothing to lose, so he's going "cuckoos nest". but he cant gain any new voters with his old tired message. Only the nut jobs already locked in to Trump will vote, and everyone else will be repelled. And he knows that when he loses, he will just TAKE the win, and his people will believe he won, and hence we embark on another 4 years of chaos and dysfunction. We can only hope for a Congress and Senate win, so if Trump does actually win, WE will still have some power and authority. Otherwise America as we know it will cease to exist, and we will not only have to deal with a corrupt, lawless government, but with MAGA friends, neighbors and family emboldened But destroyed, like EmmetK living in their crazy hateful dystopian bubble of grievance, conspiracy and nostalgia for a time gone long ago. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 27 Members Posted October 27 6 hours ago, Suckrates said: Otherwise America as we know it will cease to exist, and we will not only have to deal with a corrupt, lawless government, but with MAGA friends, neighbors and family emboldened But destroyed, like EmmetK living in their crazy hateful dystopian bubble of grievance, conspiracy and nostalgia for a time gone long ago. If I had to bet everything I own, or my life, I would bet it on Kamala Harris right now. It's not a crazy bet, for sure. Even though deranged Republicans are demonstrating how detached they are from reality, by being sure of a Trump victory. Except for guys like Karl Rove, who knows a few things about reality and winning. He just spent two hours explaining to Mark Halperin why he doesn't have a clue who will win. Harris is leading in the polls. Lichtman, who is always right, says she will win. She is clearly not an unhinged lying despicable felon. And that's just what Mitch McConnell, Liz Cheney, and his own Cabinet Secretaries say about Trump. Why isn't moral worm Mike Johnson denouncing Mitch McConnell for telling a tiny bit of the truth, in private? I would make the bet because I don't think a majority of Americans want the America you outlined above. In fact, even if Trump does win, I don't think the majority of Americans will want the sick, disgraced America they will get. We have seen this movie before, in 2017. Yes, it will be far worse. But it will have a beginning, and an end. For that reason, this might be a good time to recognize there are two reasons Trump might win. Despite the fact that he is an unhinged freak who is clearly getting more deranged every time he opens his lying law breaking mouth. The first and most important reason is simple: inflation. This has happened with leaders all over the world. At least in what I would call "Western" nations. Anyone who presided over COVID + inflation has been turned into toast. Trump was actually the first big example of that, in 2020. I am as certain as one can be that had there been no COVID he would have won in 2020. Merkel lost her mojo. So has Macron, while he is still holding on. Pretty boy Trudeau has lost his touch, and will soon be gone. The leaders who seemed to weather the storm best and remained popular were AMLO and Modi. Why that was so could be an interesting thread in itself. Final thing I'll say on that is AMLO hopefully set the model: step aside, like Biden. AMLO had to for constitutional reasons in Mexico. Let a woman take your place, and win. Rinse, wash, repeat. The Progressive Moment Is Over Four reasons their era has come to an end. That also deserves a thread in itself. I'm a huge fan of Teixeira. From his days of The Emerging Democratic Majority, to his break with left wing college graduates he grew to despise. I think that article probably is symbolic of an important turning point. Democrats have now gotten the memo that some of the shit we have said and done is just deeply unpopular. If Harris loses, it will in part be because she got the memo too late. And she has refused to discuss the memo in public, which probably was not a great decision. (See Clinton, Bill, Sister Souljah moment.) My bet is in the end Harris will win a plurality or majority in the swing states. Forced to choose between Democrats who went too far, and an unhinged felon who has never had political, moral, or legal limits, they'll take the Democrat. We'll see. Either way, right now - when we are absolutely scared shitless - is a very good time to read and reflect on Teixeira. If Harris wins, we are still going to have to adjust and move to the middle. Because a President Harris won't have a winning mandate, or even a legislative majority. If she loses, it will NOT force Democrats - particularly progressives, which I call myself - to swallow some bitter pills. It means the pills will be shoved rudely up our asses, whether we like it or not, by Trump's victory. That essay is fantastic. I will simply cut and paste Teixeira's four main points, all of which are reasons Trump could win: Quote 1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it. Quote 2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it. Quote 3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it. Quote 4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it. Like I said, Teixeira deserves a thread of his own. Each of these points is debatable, or arguably even wrong. Trump presided over one of the worst spikes in murder and illegal guns in US history. Biden and Harris, who embodies the ideal of law and order and has all her life, brought murder rates back down form the bloody, ugly, violent, and sick America the lying felon left them. Oh, and he left Harris cops with lots of broken bones. Talk about social and political disorder that voters hate! So, again, I could debate every one of these points. But if Harris loses, you can sum it up in two words: Pennsylvania, and fracking. So we basically have two choices, maybe. We may have some bitter pills shoved up our asses with a Trump victory, and have no choice. If Harris wins and we do have a choice, I'll opt for swallowing the pills voluntarily. That said, I have hope. Paul Wellstone. I keep going back to him, and will all my life. I bought Teixeira's landmark book when I was at an event in Minnesota at Carleton to honor Wellstone after he died in a plane crash. The Iraq War was raging. We didn't know yet that W. and Cheney would win despite that, in 2004. No one could see Barack Obama coming. The only comforting thing is that I was surrounded by progressive friends who, like me, were mentored my Paul. Including my best friend from college. He ran Paul's Senate campaigns and started Camp Wellstone after Paul died. Just to show how these lives and movements connect and can not be stopped, there was another crazy teacher who knew shit about politics and talked way too fast who showed up at Camp Wellstone one day. His name is Tim Walz. Gun control used to be an even better Democrat slayer than the four issues Teixeira flagged above. Go tell hunters who live in the Iron Range who vote Democratic you're for gun control. Wellstone avoided that one. Well, Tim Walz likes to hunt. So Democrats can and will figure it out. But only if we try. And I hope we don't have to lose to be motivated to do that. Quote
Members Pete1111 Posted October 27 Members Posted October 27 57 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: If I had to bet everything I own, or my life, I would bet it on Kamala Harris right now. It's not a crazy bet, for sure. Even though deranged Republicans are demonstrating how detached they are from reality, by being sure of a Trump victory. Except for guys like Karl Rove, who knows a few things about reality and winning. He just spent two hours explaining to Mark Halperin why he doesn't have a clue who will win. Harris is leading in the polls. Lichtman, who is always right, says she will win. She is clearly not an unhinged lying despicable felon. And that's just what Mitch McConnell, Liz Cheney, and his own Cabinet Secretaries say about Trump. Why isn't moral worm Mike Johnson denouncing Mitch McConnell for telling a tiny bit of the truth, in private? I would make the bet because I don't think a majority of Americans want the America you outlined above. In fact, even if Trump does win, I don't think the majority of Americans will want the sick, disgraced America they will get. We have seen this movie before, in 2017. Yes, it will be far worse. But it will have a beginning, and an end. For that reason, this might be a good time to recognize there are two reasons Trump might win. Despite the fact that he is an unhinged freak who is clearly getting more deranged every time he opens his lying law breaking mouth. The first and most important reason is simple: inflation. This has happened with leaders all over the world. At least in what I would call "Western" nations. Anyone who presided over COVID + inflation has been turned into toast. Trump was actually the first big example of that, in 2020. I am as certain as one can be that had there been no COVID he would have won in 2020. Merkel lost her mojo. So has Macron, while he is still holding on. Pretty boy Trudeau has lost his touch, and will soon be gone. The leaders who seemed to weather the storm best and remained popular were AMLO and Modi. Why that was so could be an interesting thread in itself. Final thing I'll say on that is AMLO hopefully set the model: step aside, like Biden. AMLO had to for constitutional reasons in Mexico. Let a woman take your place, and win. Rinse, wash, repeat. The Progressive Moment Is Over Four reasons their era has come to an end. That also deserves a thread in itself. I'm a huge fan of Teixeira. From his days of The Emerging Democratic Majority, to his break with left wing college graduates he grew to despise. I think that article probably is symbolic of an important turning point. Democrats have now gotten the memo that some of the shit we have said and done is just deeply unpopular. If Harris loses, it will in part be because she got the memo too late. And she has refused to discuss the memo in public, which probably was not a great decision. (See Clinton, Bill, Sister Souljah moment.) My bet is in the end Harris will win a plurality or majority in the swing states. Forced to choose between Democrats who went too far, and an unhinged felon who has never had political, moral, or legal limits, they'll take the Democrat. We'll see. Either way, right now - when we are absolutely scared shitless - is a very good time to read and reflect on Teixeira. If Harris wins, we are still going to have to adjust and move to the middle. Because a President Harris won't have a winning mandate, or even a legislative majority. If she loses, it will NOT force Democrats - particularly progressives, which I call myself - to swallow some bitter pills. It means the pills will be shoved rudely up our asses, whether we like it or not, by Trump's victory. That essay is fantastic. I will simply cut and paste Teixeira's four main points, all of which are reasons Trump could win: Like I said, Teixeira deserves a thread of his own. Each of these points is debatable, or arguably even wrong. Trump presided over one of the worst spikes in murder and illegal guns in US history. Biden and Harris, who embodies the ideal of law and order and has all her life, brought murder rates back down form the bloody, ugly, violent, and sick America the lying felon left them. Oh, and he left Harris cops with lots of broken bones. Talk about social and political disorder that voters hate! So, again, I could debate every one of these points. But if Harris loses, you can sum it up in two words: Pennsylvania, and fracking. So we basically have two choices, maybe. We may have some bitter pills shoved up our asses with a Trump victory, and have no choice. If Harris wins and we do have a choice, I'll opt for swallowing the pills voluntarily. That said, I have hope. Paul Wellstone. I keep going back to him, and will all my life. I bought Teixeira's landmark book when I was at an event in Minnesota at Carleton to honor Wellstone after he died in a plane crash. The Iraq War was raging. We didn't know yet that W. and Cheney would win despite that, in 2004. No one could see Barack Obama coming. The only comforting thing is that I was surrounded by progressive friends who, like me, were mentored my Paul. Including my best friend from college. He ran Paul's Senate campaigns and started Camp Wellstone after Paul died. Just to show how these lives and movements connect and can not be stopped, there was another crazy teacher who knew shit about politics and talked way too fast who showed up at Camp Wellstone one day. His name is Tim Walz. Gun control used to be an even better Democrat slayer than the four issues Teixeira flagged above. Go tell hunters who live in the Iron Range who vote Democratic you're for gun control. Wellstone avoided that one. Well, Tim Walz likes to hunt. So Democrats can and will figure it out. But only if we try. And I hope we don't have to lose to be motivated to do that. Steven I worry how much time you spend with Halperin that you'll end up drinking their koolade. I honestly feel like I need a hot soapy shower after watching them. Sean Spicer? No thank you. That said I admit I'm hooked on watching the anti Trumpers at The Bulwark, a Republican center-right and anti-Trump conservative news and opinion website, and YouTube vlog. I really like their publisher, Sarah Longwell, a clever pundit. She has been working her tail of trying to make a difference. I also like their managing editor Sam Stein who is closer to center, and kinda cute. Here is Sam on the right with Tim Miller a never Trumper Republican that worked for Jeb Bush. Tim has really been losing it, how hypocritical so many Republicans are about Trump. Sam is keeping it together somehow. Tim and Sarah have been outspoken how too many Republicans are not admitting Trump is a dangerous fool that needs to be defeated. According to Sarah, right now Michigan is in the bag for Harris. Another vlogger I follow, David Feldman is convinced Pennsylvania is going for Harris. Still another vlogger and pundit I follow, Simon Rosenberg remains encouraged Harris will win. So although we all feel as exasperated as @Suckrates does that our country is so close to fucking up our democracy, we can't give up. Everybody do whatever you can!! Every day. I am. lookin, stevenkesslar and Bingo T Dog 1 2 Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted October 27 Author Posted October 27 16 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: Why won't you tell us why you back a Jew killer admirer? Trump lost in 2020. Lichtman was right in 2020, and every other time So I have the facts on my side. You're the one backing the Jew killer admirer and loser. I What we know of Trump is that he says he admires Hitler, he says he'd govern as a dictator. Enough about the great incompetent and weak former defeated president though. Harris needs to be talking about the economy every day. Trump was handed a growing economy from Obama, and Trump's incompetence during the pandemic destroyed the economy. As one of his award winning biographers has said about Trump, everything Trump touches dies. Quote
Moses Posted October 27 Posted October 27 13 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: In effect, Harris will win because so many Americans who would happily vote for a Republican will vote for Harris. Like Liz Cheney. Precisely because Genocide Man is a monster who eats women and children, and they feel this beast has to be stopped. Steve, dear, what you'll wrote here, if Trump will win? Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 27 Members Posted October 27 5 hours ago, Pete1111 said: That said I admit I'm hooked on watching the anti Trumpers at The Bulwark, a Republican center-right and anti-Trump conservative news and opinion website, I love them, too. Tim is a little over the top. But he's Gay. So whadaya gonna do? The one I like the most there is Charlie Sykes. Very thoughtful, and very down to earth. And he reeks of integrity. At best, what we see happening here has been labelled "the new centrism". I think it is true that people are just sick of this shit. And they want to meet in the middle and move beyond it. In some theoretical world, Trump actually would be the perfect agent for a "new centrism". There was a period of time between Nov. 2016 and Jan.2017 when a lot of liberals were worried about that. That Trump, who wrote checks to Harris as a candidate years ago and was kind of a right of center Democrat, would move to the center and build a lasting moderate Republican coalition. By Jan. 2017 I think we knew this guy was a narcissistic dolt, and it was gonna be "American carnage". And that was Trump on a good day By Jan. 2021 we had the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating. If there is a new centrism, it will not be about picking up flag poles and really just showing how much we love cops and the rule of law by smashing their fucking heads open. And do not be confused. It is the fucking cops' fault. This way as a day of love, which they fucked up by carrying guns. And being rude to patriots who just wanted to break their bones. So that is just a no go. If there is a new centrism, these folks like Sykes and Longwell will help build it. Arguably, there already are. 5 hours ago, Pete1111 said: Steven I worry how much time you spend with Halperin that you'll end up drinking their koolade. I honestly feel like I need a hot soapy shower after watching them. Sean Spicer? No thank you. Funny you mention that. The last few days are the first time I have started to doubt Halperin's judgment about this election. And I have a reason why. In the last few days in one of his podcasts he went after John Meacham. John Meacham! Meacham was on Morning Joe going after Trump and fascism and Jan. 6th and protecting democracy. And he was doing it in a very guarded and almost vague Meacham sort of way. Meacham would never say, "He's a fascist." So Halperin couldn't say "Meacham is a hot head." Halperin just played the tape of Meacham being Meacham. And then talked about how maybe this was an example of these anti-Trump people just not getting it, and saying all this apocalyptic bullshit that turns people off. Meacham is no leftist. He is about as centrist as it gets. I'd argue a bit right of center. He has impeccable pedigree when it comes to standards, and values, and being pro-American. So what this particular comparison just made obvious to me is that Halperin really is a deeply cynical man. I think for him it all is a circus. So really, at the end of the day, these lines Meacham is trying to draw about what is fundamentally wrong about Trump don't really matter. He's just another politician. Just like Hitler. Just like Stalin. It's just inflammatory to say Trump or Hitler or Stalin are somehow different. They are just politicians in the circus. Maybe a bit more out there. That's all. If I am at all right, it would suggest that Halperin is missing something. We'll know better after the votes are cast. But the counterpoint is definitely all those folks at The Bulwark. I'll hold up Sykes and Longwell as ones saying, "No." Trump is not just another politician. He is a threat to everything we cherish. Pete1111 1 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 27 Members Posted October 27 5 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said: Harris needs to be talking about the economy every day. Trump was handed a growing economy from Obama, and Trump's incompetence during the pandemic destroyed the economy. As one of his award winning biographers has said about Trump, everything Trump touches dies. This is another one we just won't know until the votes are cast. I do think this involves three dimensional political chess,though. I cited above the Republican pollster Greg Strimple who works for the Cook Political Report who said the following. If you want to watch it yourself, this is from 21:00 to 23:00 in that link. Undecided voters are NOT totally undecided. If they voted for the economy, they have decided they would prefer Trump. The problem is that they do think Trump is unhinged. If they vote based on Trump being unhinged, they will vote against Trump. So he argued Harris lost October and made a "massive strategic error" because she started to focus on the economy instead. which is playing into Trump's hands. Strimple argued she should have continued her lines of attack from the debate: that people want an end to Trump's "insanity". Objectively, it is hard to argue with the fact that she won the debate. And that when she changed the topic to her "opportunity economy" the race got closer and she stalled. The flip side is Halperin just had another focus group where everyone said they are tired of hearing this fascism stuff. STFU, Harris. That was their take. Who's right? Maybe both. It is not either/or. I am just repeating my other post. Perceptions of her on the economy have gotten better. There are polls that women think she will be better for the economy than Trump. That said, I personally believe Strimple is correct - or, more pointedly, his polls are correct. That if the thing this election is decided on is the economy, Trump will win. There are just too many people, including Democrats, who feel too sour about the economy. That said, there are polls that say voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who will raise taxes on the rich and spend it on child tax credits for the working class. Here's a 3D chess project for you. Go to your toilet, take a long shit, put the feces in your mouth, and swallow it. And savor and ingest it slowly. Don't be grossed out. Spend a long time eating it. I want you to have a real good taste of what shit tastes like. My point is that if I had to explain why Harris keeps saying something that everyone agrees they don't want to hear, it could be because nobody likes eating shit. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact. One theory is that "unhinged menace" fires up her base. People who believe this is a base strategy tend to think that Harris knows she is losing. So "firing up the base" is really a strategy to lose narrowly, and not take everyone else down with her. The alternative theory is that all these fence sitters who don't want to hear "fascist" still have to hear it, anyway. They may not like hearing it at all, because they are undecided. Why would anyone undecided want to hear, implicitly, "How could you even consider voting for an unhinged fascist?" Will it get them to hold their nose and vote for Harris? Or more likely, just not vote for Trump? I dunno. Check back with me in a few weeks. Another thing being said is that the few remaining undecided voters are tuned out, and hard to reach. And apart from undecided voters, there is this other group of tuned out people, like young men, who usually don't even vote. But might vote for Trump. If you read websites about politics and know anything about child tax credits, like me, you have no fucking clue what moves these voters. Definitely not websites about politics, or the nuances of economic policy. So it does make sense to me that what gets through to these maybe maybe not voters, if anything, is, "The guy is unhinged. He is a hot mess. Don't do it." There is definitely a reason she is doing it, just like Biden did. And Biden did argue, correctly, that everyone who said he was wrong in 2022 was wrong. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted October 27 Members Posted October 27 1 hour ago, Moses said: Steve, dear, what you'll wrote here, if Trump will win? Could we just face facts, please? Everybody on the fucking planet hates Genocide World, and Genocide Man. They just fucking hate him. Read the polls. I mean, Master Xi will keep that tight vice he has on your monster's old useless testicles. And pull the chain attached to it once in a while to show who is boss. Master Xi and Modi will buy cheap shit from Genocide World, for sure. But does it make sense to anyone that the thing that makes Russia's economy great now is that dead Russians are the fuel to economic growth? The US has chips and AI. China has electric cars. Genocide World has killing Russians and sadism. So nobody wants to live in Genocide World, or be ruled by Genocide Man. Certainly Americans don't favor your sadistic monster. That's not a reason Trump will win. Please don't be confused about that. People all over the world will be happy when Genocide World collapses of its own moral, political, and economic dead weight. Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years Those are the experts, who talk about why the rot and decay will cause Genocide World to collapse, just like the Soviet Union did. But what poll have you not read? This is not a toss up. People all over the world despise Genocide World and Genocide Man. Most Americans view Russia as an enemy. As long as Russia's economy is about killing Russians, democracy is stronger and safer. And Russia is literally cannibalizing its own corrupt and rotten nation. That said, beyond doubt, if Trump wins it is a huge strategic win for Genocide Man, even if most Americans despise him. The decades Genocide Man spent cultivating a relationship with a greedy narcissist like Trump will have paid off again, like in 2016. America will be disgraced. Which is one reason I think Trump won't win. Quote
