Members stevenkesslar Posted 8 hours ago Members Share Posted 8 hours ago 4 hours ago, Suckrates said: It seems to be what America has become, and what Americans want..... A minority in America ...................... I'll add a fact, and a theory. The fact is that Lichtman has been right every time he made a prediction, and he is predicting Harris. You can put an asterisk next to Al Gore. And if the 2024 election hangs on 1000 votes in Pennsylvania, like 2000 did in Florida, well it's possible we could get another version of that. But it is extremely unlikely, even in these crazy days. I'll add Michael Moore as a kind of housewives' tale prediction. He says Kamala will win because of a wall of women. Why believe these two? The key thing about Lichtman's argument is he claims, I think correctly, that as a historian he has figured out something about the structure of US elections. And at the simplest level it boils down to the fact that if the current Administration has done a good enough job, they get a second term. And it's not about whether Trump entertains people at McDonalds, or Harris wins the day on free media. It's about the economy, and getting laws passed, and having a unified party, and other important shit. In other words, we actually do have moral standards, and governance standards, and values actually matter. All this other stuff is noise. So, right or wrong, I am believing that Lichtman is correct yet again.. Moore gives me a kind of "crazy Grandma in the attic who is always right" way of thinking about the same thing. He sensed that there was a big problem in 2016 and Trump was actually inspiring a lot of people at the grassroots in Michigan who Hillary was just not connecting with. He was equally right about 2020 and 2022, which was supposed to be a bad year for Democrats. In fact, women politicians rocked in Michigan in 2022 and won all the big offices - at the worst point in our recent inflation adventure, and despite polls that said otherwise. So everything Lichtman and Moore are saying sounds very plausible. I'll add a third person with awesome political instincts: James Carville. He was crawling out of his skin six months ago about Biden and his chances. Now he is emphatically saying Harris will win. How does he now? He doesn't. But he has pretty good Spidey sense about these things. Including how Americans perceive the economy, stupid. I think it's probably true that Harris has neutralized that issue with most people who are undecided and willing to give her a real hearing. What connects all these dots for me is the level of disgust people feel for Trump, his values, his actions, his past unhinged leadership, and every sick and foul and wrong thing the felon and liar stands for. We have polls telling us this is very real. I just have to listen to my own moderate brothers open their mouths about this guy and I know it is true. So I don't find it hard to believe that somehow the 52 % of Americans who have been saying consistently and increasingly emphatically since 2017 that Trump is a bad leader are going to somehow figure out how to shit can this unhinged menace once and for all. And it will be because of that list of Trump's true sick values I posted above. From "grab 'em by the pussy" to "arrest Nancy Pelosi" while some MAGA nut hammers her husband's brain in, the majority of Americans feel deeply that this is not what America is. And this is not what we want America to be. I think that America is going to win. It always does, in the end. No matter how much bad shit we have to go through to get there. We have a prosecutor who stands for law and order and is a paragon of the American success story. We have a felon who stands for everything bad and corrupt and law breaking and vile about America. Who has no character and many lifelong psychological problems that boil down to ME ME ME. I think this is what MLK was predicting, as well. His dream is coming true. Biden may be old and unpopular. But I think we will learn this is what America wants to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Suckrates Posted 4 hours ago Members Share Posted 4 hours ago Carville, being interviewed by Ari Melber yesterday seemed doubtful and VERY concerned.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
