Holiday Sunday Numbers Seem Down

[KhorTose]

Since I live in Thailand, I'll also keep an eye on how the scene develops. I do wish, though, that someone would open a nice up-market cocktail-type bar with some well-chosen furnishings, great drinks and perhaps a few 'quality' hosts. A place for Thais and farang to go and have a drink and a chat with friends, maybe an occasional hook up with someone for dinner and whatever thereafter. Clearly costs would be higher, but I do think there is a niche market clientele for this.

 

We have such a place in Chiang Mai called the Glass Onion and it did not have enough customers to be a success. It is now a mixed bar with two Japanese owners, one gay and one straight. Very nicely done, definitely a hi-so feel but few customers in attendance, so I am not sure that is the answer.

 

I have found this whole conversation fascinating and the analysis provided superb.

I do not think you guys have lost anyone, and if more people are not replying it is because you guys are doing so well in expanding the topic. I do not want to jump in as I do not want you to stop, I do wish you would expand more on how the bars might change, especially considering the economics and politics of Thailand which you have left out of the conversation, but appear vital to me.

[Guest fountainhall]

One hour in Japan means precisely that

I only visited a host bar once decades ago, that same Kings of College. The boy I chose was so cute, spoke little English but I agreed 2 hours back at my hotel. Well, with all the travel, this left not much more than 1 hour. The boy, who had been very willing earlier, was less so at the hotel, took an age to shower, and then seemed to fuss over everything that I was constantly checking the clock for the time left. All in all it was a thoroughly depressing and expensive experience. I do believe, though, that these bars have become much more user friendly, provided you have the cash and stick to the rules.

 

Now I find there are so many other ways to find cute guys. Far better to invest just US$30 or so and spend a few hours at the nearby “24” sauna. Lots of students seem to like going there and you often see a long parade of gorgeous full-body eye candy in the showers and hot baths area.

 

I will be back in Tokyo and Kyoto for cherry blossom time and will update information in a report on that visit.

 

Freelance options in China, especially those picked up in parks/streets can be dangerous to life and limb.

In response to z909’s query, the main problem is that countless tens of millions of farm labourers from the countryside have flooded into the richer coastal cities in recent years. If they are able to get work, it is badly paid with long hours. Some see an opportunity to make a quick buck by hustling. These guys speak almost no English and tend not to know how to treat ‘clients’ apart from dropping their pants. Whilst most will be quite courteous, some will be bad apples and easily get angry if there is a misunderstanding over price. Some will bring friends to hang out nearby in case they need help fleecing a customer. So virtually every gay site includes the caveat - AYOR.

 

If you meet a guy in a gay bar or through a recognised website, especially someone who speaks decent English, the risks are negligible. But then the price is also much higher.

 

We have such a place in Chiang Mai called the Glass Onion and it did not have enough customers to be a success.

A gay friend took me there about 3 years ago and I thought it was great. I happen to think that, notwithstanding it not succeeding as a gay venue in Chiang Mai, it could be a big ‘hit’ here in Bangkok. It was classy, comfortable, had cute waiters, a wide variety of drinks and cocktails – even a good pianist who played a nice mix of music. I for one would be a regular!

 

I wonder if anyone talked to the owners about the possibility of opening up in Bangkok?

[Guest lonelywombat]

I only visited a host bar once decades ago, that same Kings of College. The boy I chose was so cute, spoke little English but I agreed 2 hours back at my hotel. Well, with all the travel, this left not much more than 1 hour. The boy, who had been very willing earlier, was less so at the hotel, took an age to shower, and then seemed to fuss over everything that I was constantly checking the clock for the time left. All in all it was a thoroughly depressing and expensive experience. I do believe, though, that these bars have become much more user friendly, provided you have the cash and stick to the rules.

 

Now I find there are so many other ways to find cute guys. Far better to invest just US$30 or so and spend a few hours at the nearby

[macaroni21]

Why is this?

 

I agree with fountainhall's response to this. I myself had what might have been a near miss. Years ago, I picked up a guy from a park. As we walked towards the main street to hail a taxi, we stopped to get a drink from a vendor. The very sweet, smiling guy in the park changed before my eyes. His words to the vendor sounded brusque and coarse, almost barking our orders. A little further on, while we were sipping our drinks amidst a crowded street (we were near a bus stop and metro entrance) someone brushed him on the shoulder as he walked past, causing him to spill his drink slightly on his jacket. Instead of a quick "sorry" like any normal person would say, putting the matter out of his mind, he turned around and hurled abuse at the passer-by. I decided there and then it would be a bad idea to have this guy in my room, and amazed myself with the quickest of thinking. A bus was just then coming to a halt at the bus stop beside me, and while his guy was hurling abuse at the stranger (and was facing away from me) I hopped onto the bus and escaped!

 

The AYOR warnings I had seen were completely validated in my mind.

[macaroni21]

Think: The Cafe Royale Piano Bar - same problem.

 

A gay friend took me there about 3 years ago and I thought it was great. I happen to think that, notwithstanding it not succeeding as a gay venue in Chiang Mai, it could be a big ‘hit’ here in Bangkok. It was classy, comfortable, had cute waiters, a wide variety of drinks and cocktails – even a good pianist who played a nice mix of music. I for one would be a regular!

 

I wonder if anyone talked to the owners about the possibility of opening up in Bangkok?

 

 

I don't think it will work, because of cost and because this is culturally farang, not Thai. For a business to succeed, it must appeal to Thais, otherwise it becomes overly dependent on expats or tourists, and as we know, gay farang tourist traffic is flat or declining, and gay expat numbers alone are never going to be enough.

 

A classy joint (unlike Telephone bar with its fair quotient of sleaze) means a high-rent location, spaciousness (more rent per customer served) costly furnishing and operations (live music). It will need the support of hi-so Thais who are (1) out of the closet, (2) want a romantic atmosphere, and (3) have westernised taste in beverage and music. I suspect they are very few in number.

[Guest fountainhall]

This thread seems to be going off topic like those on GBT. I found the saunas in Japan full of journeymen who slept in open dormitories on stretchers, as the return journey home was far too long to contemplate.

Just one comment on your post before I return to the main topic. If you visit a Japanese sauna in the late evenings, you are almost bound to be hugely disappointed. The subway and trains stop around midnight. So most guys, especially the younger ones, will depart around 9:00pm if not earlier. Thereafter, the guys who are left intend to use the sauna as a cheap hotel rather than for sex. The best times in my experience - especially at the '24s' in Ueno and Shinjuku - are late afternoon and very early evening. The original '24' in Asakusa has been on the go for decades, must now be pretty sleazy and has always been a hangout for much older guys compared to those who patronise the other 2.

 

Back to Bangkok nightlife. There was a discussion on this topic back in February 2010 under the thread title What is a House of Prostitution. I quoted several excerpts from a superb book, Bangkok Found by Alex Kerr. Alex is an award-winning author, speaks several Asian languages fluently (his first major book Lost Japan was written in Japanese and won that country’s highest literary award, the only foreigner to have been so honoured), and is steeped in the culture and history of Thailand where he has lived since 1997 (after 25 years of regular visits). This is a fascinating general interest book, not geared to a gay market. But he does make several keen observations on the nightlife scene.

 

To save readers from checking back - and at the risk of boring some, I will repost one entry I made on 18 February which I believe will contribute further to this discussion.

 

I’d like to add one more rather lengthy quote from Alex Kerr’s Bangkok Found, as I believe its outline of the changing nightlife scene in Bangkok and evidence of why go-go bars and their like are living on borrowed time, will open up other interesting areas for discussion. I have edited out a few sentences to reduce the length and hope I have still maintained the overall sense.

 

I have what I call the ‘Weimar Repubic’ theory of Bangkok. As dramatized in the movie Cabaret, there was a brief moment of sinful freedom in Berlin during the Weimar Republic (1919 – 1933). It was the era of Kurt Weill’s bittersweet music and Christopher Isherwood’s novels and stories. By the mid-1930s the Nazis stamped it out, and eventually all that remained was a legend of ‘Berlin in the 20s’. Those who experienced it spent the rest of their lives telling others of the wild days that were now gone forever.

 

In time, the more outrageous forms that prostitution takes in Bangkok (sex shows, go-go bars with half naked boys or girls with numbers on their panties gyrating on tables) will disappear. For those things, Bangkok stands far out on the scale of what most cities in the world see as acceptable. I don’t believe it will last. Slowly but surely we are seeing a clampdown, and it’s a matter of time before the ‘sinful’ Bangkok we see today fades into legend, just as 1920s Berlin did . . .

 

This doesn’t mean that commercial sex will disappear . . . it does mean that we’re seeing a steady shift in the balance between prostitution and non-commercial venues. . . Meanwhile there’s a new open sexuality among the youth, which also alarms conservative elements in government and society. Back in the 80s and 90s, Rome Club on Silom Soi 4 was one of the few places where young urban professionals hung out. Since then nightlife has exploded into a wide range of venues across town. Youngsters dance the night away at huge discos at RCA or the clubs in the Ratchada area; gays go to Silom Soi 2 or to dozens of venues clustered in entertainment districts around the city . . . Sophisticated venues like Bed Supperclub or the fancy nightclubs on Soi Thonglor attract a well-heeled clientele.

 

As late as the mid-90s, boys and girls rarely held hand in public. Handholding was mostly a boy-boy or girl-girl thing. Outside their homes, people shunned physical contact in general. Now this is all changing, and dance in the discos has a lot to do with it. Politicians and bureaucrats therefore see dance as dangerous and have done their best to restrict it, by granting few licenses, tightening the zoning for entertainment districts, and requiring clubs to close earlier and earlier. Bangkok is already far more restrictive than Singapore or Tokyo when it comes to officially mandated closing times and permitted age limits for entry. Of course, this being Bangkok, the restrictions have plenty of holes in them. Somehow, certain clubs manage to evade the rules and stay open till morning.

Alex Kerr goes on to give other examples, along with the reasons he sees for the changing nightlife scene, most of them cultural and historical. But I’ll leave it to readers to purchase the book to find out more.

[Guest fountainhall]

Think: The Cafe Royale Piano Bar - same problem.

 

I don't think it will work, because of cost and because this is culturally farang, not Thai. For a business to succeed, it must appeal to Thais, otherwise it becomes overly dependent on expats or tourists . . . A classy joint . . . will need the support of hi-so Thais who are (1) out of the closet, (2) want a romantic atmosphere, and (3) have westernised taste in beverage and music. I suspect they are very few in number.

Here we are in disagreement. Of course you are correct that such an establishment could only succeed with the vast majority of clients being Thai. I don't know the Cafe Royal, but it is in Pattaya and I cannot agree the conditions in Pattaya are remotely close to those in Bangkok.

 

Because of my work, I do have to attend occasional social events. I also sometimes go to pop and classical concerts. There I see plenty of Thais, especially rich hi-so younger ones, who are 'out' and happy to be seen by their peer groups as being so. A glance at the society pages in The Tatler or a look in the more expensive restaurants illustrates this clearly. Despite the conservative nature of most Thais, there is quite an acceptance of gay couples in the upper echelons of Thai society. I presume this is because many of the parents will have been educated overseas, and their children likewise.

 

In my experience, these Thai gays usually hang out with straight couples, and so it might be assumed that they would opt not to go to an upper end gay club. Again, I would not agree. If it were indeed classy, if the prices were such that the average punter would not consider visiting, I believe it would work and would also start to attract singles. It would certainly work if it had a celebrity or two as the owner and was thus able to garner a lot of free publicity. It would also attract some farang, especially those who already mix in that society. And eventually it would open up to a larger market. I am so convinced this would work that I would actually be prepared to make a small investment in it. Yes, I know - a fool an his money etc.

[macaroni21]

I do wish you would expand more on how the bars might change, especially considering the economics and politics of Thailand which you have left out of the conversation, but appear vital to me.

 

Your wish is my command

 

SUMMARY

I think economic trends will keep driving up the price of sex. Political trends will bias towards the existing model of doing business and penalise innovation, thus reinforcing the trend of price-rises. Demographic trends will keep driving up the price of sex. The Soi Twilight type of gogo bar has a bleak long-term future. What will survive for longer (but perhaps still not forever) is the Chiang Mai model.

 

ECONOMIC TRENDS

The price of sex like any commodity is determined by supply and demand, but also impacted by income gap. Economically, Thailand is doing OK, with steady growth, healthy investment and in the wake of these two trends, increasing job opportunities for its people. Sex is something that people sell when they have no other realistic work. Even work that pays relatively poorly is preferred by most to selling their bodies. As a new generation of Thais have at least 8 - 10 years' schooling and is able to do some factory work, and as investment into Thailand takes the form of low-to-medium skill manufacturing, there should be a good match between jobs created and available labour. The pool of people with no hope of getting work in the formal sector is likely to stagnate or shrink. Thus supply of new sex workers will stagnate or shrink (see also the section below on demographics).

 

Meanwhile like in so many Asian countries, the income gap is widening. This means the rich can afford to bid more and more for sex. As the domestic price for sex rises, so will the tourist or expat price.

 

POLITICAL TRENDS

The current crisis in Thailand, which a recently launched book explained is part of a continuing conflict that began in 1932, is one that pits royalist forces against democratic ones. I do not see either side winning a clear victory anytime soon. While I will give the democratic forces a small but significant chance of eventual success, I give zero chance to the royalist forces. They will eventually be defeated or overtaken by history and other trends, the only question is how long they can hold out.

 

However, the most likely prospect over the next 10 years is a continuation of the current stalemate.

 

This then means the current (corrupt) model of doing business will remain in place, with a privileged class primarily interested in extracting rent by means fair and (mostly) foul. With greed as the driving factor, there is a constant push to increase the price of sex as middlemen of all sorts (from mamasans to Boys in Brown) demand a bigger and bigger cut of the proceeds.

 

Any bar or massage parlour that wants to innovate by changing the service offering, the business model or pricing scheme will be seen as a threat to the existing cosy arrangement.

 

In a polity where there is transparency and rule of law, a businessman can calculate his expected costs should he evolve a new business model. Tax rates, cost inputs, permissible licenses, etc are knowable in advance, while security from the underworld can be assumed. In a scenario like Thailand, these are not knowable in advance, because they are never formalised. The rule of law is grey, the meaning of licences is vague, the cost factors are not quoted in advance as much as they are the outcome of veiled threats made after you have launched your new business model. Such an environment discourages innovation, because you can never pre-calculate whether your innovation results in cost savings or cost/licence/security catastrophe.

 

Hence there is a strong bias for the existing business model (and oligopolistic practices) to continue, with its ingrained indulgence towards greed. It means an inability to respond to external trends such as the rise of the Asian spender, as we have discussed earlier, or to complaints that the bars have lost their fun factor and feel very stale.

 

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

In the 1960s, Thailand's annual population growth was about 3 per cent; the average woman had 5 - 6 children. This produced a bumper crop of young men and women in the 1980s and 1990s. Farmwork for all was unrealistic. There was a significant drift to the cities.

 

By the early 1990s, Thailand's first phase of industrialisation was producing a new urban middle class with the wherewithal to buy sex. The low profile domestic sex industry that had existed for eons, grew till it rivalled the high-profile sex industry that served the US forces during the Vietnam War but was winding down after the war ended. Bars like Tawan, Twilight and Barbeiry opened, at first aimed at the domestic market with its new purchasing power, and sourcing from an expanding supply of farmboys from the large families of the 1960s.

 

The Asian Financial Crisis of 1996/7 wiped out a good chunk of the middle class, but currency devaluation made Thailand very competitive. The tourism boom quickly replaced the disappearing domestic market in Tawan, Twilight, Barbeiry and others.

 

Today however, annual population growth in Thailand is 1 percent or less. "Thailand's highly successful government-sponsored family planning program has resulted in a dramatic decline in population growth from 3.1% in 1960 to less than 1% today." -- Source: State Department and Indexmundi

 

The Total Fertility Rate slipped under 2 births per woman more than 10 years ago and is now 1.65 -- source: Indexmundi. If a TFR is 2.1, it means a population just barely replaces itself from one generation to the next. Under 2.1, a population will age and shrink over the long term. That process has now begun for Thailand.

 

The supply of young men and women is shrinking rapidly. Moreover, economic growth and better education means that what supply there is will have more jobs to look forward too than those born in the 1960s and 1970s. By the laws of supply and demand, this indicates that the price of sex will rise.

 

SCALING DOWN THE SEX BUSINESS

As the supply of young men shrinks, any business that depends on scale becomes vulnerable. By this, I am referring to bars that mount relatively massive shows like Dream Boy. For example, their Big Cock Segment has currently some 18 guys showing off their assets. What if the day comes when you can't even find 18 boys to staff the entire bar?

 

Also, as the cost of labour rises, businesses will try to find ways to save on other costs, and ripe for the knife will be the production costs of these elaborate shows.

 

One model that will seem attractive is the Chiang Mai model where the show consists of solo performers (occasional duo) doing five minutes each, with little by way of costumes or fancy props. Interestingly, it is also the Manila model, and I note that in both Manila and Chiang Mai, the bars aim at the domestic market, which is less volatile and more soundly based than the tourist market. For this reason, I suspect that over the long term, the Dream Boy model will disappear and the Chiang Mai model will predominate. Smaller bars will become the norm.

[Guest fountainhall]

I note that in both Manila and Chiang Mai, the bars aim at the domestic market, which is less volatile and more soundly based than the tourist market.

This is surely the key point in macaroni21’s very perceptive posts. When I think back prior to the economic crisis, I realise the clientele at the main Bangkok bars was certainly mostly Thai, not farang.

 

It’s also a fact to which most farang visitors – and many farang who post on various chat sites - pay almost zero attention. These guys – and to a lesser extent some farang who live here – seem to think the bars are run purely for their patronage. Nothing could be further from the truth – certainly in Bangkok. And the sooner the farang community understands and accepts this, the less we will see – thankfully – of the constant whines about bar prices, off fees, tips being too high and other moans. (Mind you, value for money must at some point come into the equation, and it is clear that this has not been at the forefront of the bar owners' minds for a considerable time.)

 

There seems to me no reason why Thailand, like most other Asian nations, cannot continue to grow its economy. China’s inexorable growth as the next world superpower is going to drag regional economies up with it, just as Japan’s growth did in the last century. This will happen in Thailand almost irrespective of any political problems the country may go through, falling short of outright revolution. As macaroni21 says, increasing living standards, taken along with a declining population and increasing education standards (although the latter have a long, long way to go), can only mean higher prices. That’s just a fact of economic life.

 

That said, though, I do think the changes will take some considerable time. For any school leaver without much in the way of qualifications and facing the prospect of life in a factory, the quick money he might make in a bar must seem incredibly attractive, no matter how degrading it may seem at first. I know one boy - 19 years old, cute as a button and great fun to be with - who gave up bar work after only six months. He should have been making an easy Bt. 15,000 or more each month. But he gave it up to work night shifts in a chicken processing factory for a wage of Bt. 6,000. Why? Because he wanted a steady, regular income and could stay with his mother instead of renting a room? He then enrolled on gayromeo and takes ‘extra work’ on Sundays to bring his income up to nearer Bt. 12,000. For the time being, he is happy. Like many guys, the money he used to make went on disco nights in Ratchada, a lot of booze and cigarettes, and sleep filled days. Now more goes into the bank. (This obviously opens the door to further discussion about the internet dating sites and the damage they are doing to the bar scene.)

 

Yet, for many young Thais, I still think the lure of work in the gogo bars will remain for a long time to come, provided of course there are bars there to employ them. That is my bigger concern.

[Guest]

There are some very perceptive posts above.

 

I agree that economics will push up the price of gogo bars, particularly when measured in some western currencies.

I don't see this as anything to moan about, rather the customer just needs to ensure he is earning enough to maintain his desired lifestyle.

 

Equally, when a Thai might earn 300 baht for a 10 hour stint in a shop, it must be tempting to work as a money boy to earn an extra 1000 baht now & again.

[Guest]

There are some very perceptive posts above.

 

I agree that economics will push up the price of gogo bars, particularly when measured in some western currencies.

I don't see this as anything to moan about, rather the customer just needs to ensure he is earning enough to maintain his desired lifestyle.

 

Equally, when a Thai might earn 300 baht for a 10 hour stint in a shop, it must be tempting to work as a money boy to earn an extra 1000 baht now & again.

 

As for the Japanese Sauna discussion, the one in Shinjuku is well worth a visit. I still have fond memories of one guy who looked about 18 and spent the whole evening walking about without a towel. Obviously he was concentrating on the other young Japanese guys & not an older gaijin, but what a magnificent sight!

[KhorTose]

Mack and Foutainhall, I feel I should wei both of you. I've hesitated to reply, because I have been so impressed by you insightful and well-thought our responses. However, I think I am going to throw a small monkey wrench into this discussion, as there is one area that I see a vastly different future. If the future I see is true, then most of the statements about the economics, go out the window. Please allow me to start will the pertinent quote from Mack.

 

POLITICAL TRENDS

The current crisis in Thailand, which a recently launched book explained is part of a continuing conflict that began in 1932, is one that pits royalist forces against democratic ones. I do not see either side winning a clear victory anytime soon. While I will give the democratic forces a small but significant chance of eventual success, I give zero chance to the royalist forces. They will eventually be defeated or overtaken by history and other trends, the only question is how long they can hold out.

 

However, the most likely prospect over the next 10 years is a continuation of the current stalemate.

 

I am familiar with the book you refer too, and it is on my reading list. I have read some good synopsis so I know that this is also the conclusion of its author. However, I disagree that the stalemate will continue for another then years.

 

I truly believe that both of you and the author underestimate the scope of the democratic movement in Thailand. Right now the government is trying to buy off the population the same way that they claimed Thaksin was doing; shall we say using the model that China has been so successful with in keeping its population complacent. This model is not the correct model for Thailand as economics, while still an important factor, is not the principal motivating issue behind the democratic movement.. What I see is the real core of this democratic movement is a strong desire to have a real voice in their government, and greater control of their lives. This is not a peasant movement, but a true middle class revolutionary movement. I might point out that most revolutions in the West have always been the middle class first , and then the peasants.

 

I see two possible futures for this country. One is where the Democrats (For me democrat means red shirts) continue their push to take greater control of the government by trying the voting booth. If that fails, probably because the government has rigged the results, then I see them taking to the streets. If they win, then I do believe the outcome you have predicted will come to pass with greater alacrity as change will be the name of the game. The second and all to real possibly is that if the red shirts take to the streets I see this government being faced with the choice of conceeding power or using force. There is little doubt in my mind that they will choose force. It is now, more then ever before, easy to control a population with force.

 

In the days of the French Revolution 400 unarmed peasants could easily storm a barricade held by musket welding troops. Sadly, that is not true today. In this day and age or rapid fire guns, computers, and cameras make it more then possible to exert absolute control. One has only to look at neighboring Burma where even the religious authority comes under control and gun fire if they get out of line. There are many who would say that Thailand would never take this path as it would definitely lead to economic hardship and financial loss, but I think they seriously underestimate the upperclasses desire to maintain their hold on power. Many of them are already rich, and life living under their Chatra is just as, if not more important, then the economy of Thailand. They know they can still make money investing abroad and let the people suffer, which if anything, would only make them more dependent on them,.

 

I can speculate on what will happen to the tourist and sex industry if this came to pass. Assuming no boycott by individual nations, it might under these circumstances become Thailand's biggest industry. I do not know about others, but to me I would find sex with people who have no other choice to be too distasteful and exploitive by my standards.

[Guest fountainhall]

I have absolutely no new insight I can contribute on Thai politics. I live in Bangkok and so the views I hear are mostly from people who live here. With the country seemingly mired in a rural/urban divide, these inevitably are slanted. As I reported on this Board earlier in the year, though, I did come across one Bangkok taxi driver who was so pro-Thaksin he made him out to be a total saint.

 

I am aware of the elite and their desires and aspirations. I am aware of the yellow shirts and the red shirts. I am aware that funding has been coming in to the red shirts from overseas. I am aware that Thaksin has almost certainly been pulling strings. I am aware that Thaksin, whatever good he has done in the country - and I know for sure he did some good - is a crook who let power go to his head, illegally opened overseas bank accounts, declared doctored assets, and started siphoning off vast sums to aid his family pension funds.

 

All that said, I am equally aware that Thaksin will not go away. There has been much debate of late about the power vacuum at the top of the Pheu Thai party. There was discussion that the Democrats might exploit that seeming lack of leadership by holding a snap election rather than waiting till the end of the year. It now seems that Thaksin's sister has taken the position, and it will no doubt be easier for her to command loyalty than some other party bigwig. The red shirts now have a figure they can rally round.

 

I do know a few people here who would regard themselves as being associated with the cause of the elite. My impression is they are less concerned with who wins the election (if only because they already know what the result will be) than they are with two other fears – instability and the return of a triumphant Thaksin. They know the red shirts have such a majority that they are unlikely to lose an election. They also know that both sides will spend a fortune trying to buy votes. That’s a given. Whoever does win, will then have to become involved not just in increasing job opportunities and wages, and ensuring the growth of tourism, etc. but also in international affairs and keeping the country’s many overseas investors, notably the Japanese and Chinese, reasonably content – in other words, the rhetoric of the last few years will have to give way to the practical business of running a country. That is a non-negotiable issue, it seems to me. They will also have to do that in the knowledge that the head of the army now seems to be more in the elite camp. So they will almost certainly know they will need to have pretty good juggling skills to keep all those eggs in the air and avoid any of them splattering down on the rocky road.

 

I am old enough to remember the fear that gripped many in the UK when Harold Wilson’s Labour Party just scraped through in the election of 1964. For most middle class voters, the only party was the Conservatives. Britain was going to disintegrate, they felt, under a sea of nationalisation and a sinking pound. The pound did indeed sink, a bit, but the fear was soon put to one side. Something tells me that this might well be the outcome here.

 

As the election approaches, if the red shirt movement leaders are clever, they will make some effort to assure the rest of the country that they are not out to trample all over them. They should offer some carrots to prove that their goal is stability. But then there is the thorny question of Thaksin. He remains one of the most polarising figures in Thailand’s history – adored by a majority in the country who quite happily forgive him his sins (don’t I remember reading about someone from a village saying something like “They are all corrupt! Why pick on Thaksin?”) and quite literally loathed by the rest. For the life of me, I cannot understand why the anti-Thaksin lobby has failed to work strenuously to get across the very reasonable point that by lining his own pockets, Thaksin was effectively robbing the country. He was not just Robin Hood. He was Bernie Madoff inside a Robin Hood costume!

 

I thought the red shirts had planned to distance themselves from Thaksin. With his sister heading the main opposition party, that will not now happen. So the fear will remain that a red shirt majority will push through legislation to pardon his crimes, repay his confiscated US$1.4 billion (if that is in fact legally possible), and pave the way for his heroic return. With the possibility of further instability due to an event which we know will inevitably occur sooner rather than later, that could, in my view, be the trigger for much more dangerous times. To me, the antics of a vengeful Thaksin with his proxies in power and the elite running around rudderless does not make for pleasant thinking. In that event, KhorTose’s scenario of the elite making a last grab to get power back could possibly happen. I just don’t think it will.

 

But whoever wins the election and whatever happens thereafter, there will be an effect on the bars. Ah yes! I had almost forgotten the bars! We should not forget that it was Thaksin’s social policies which led to a tightening of bar hours, zoning and other policies which affected the bars. I believe Pheu Thai and its allies would almost certainly continue that process. But then, as Alex Kerr points out in his book, historical and social forces mean that whoever wins are unlikely to be exactly bar friendly.

[macaroni21]

Economics is already irrational enough ("irrational exuberance" remember?) to be accurately predictable, politics is even worse!

 

Khor Tose has sketched the possibility that the royalist forces, in their determination to stay in power, will go to any length to do so, including a Myanmar-like situation, a state of affairs that would bring about a seriously dampening effect on economic health.

 

In my view such an extreme scenario is remote. My reasons for thinking so are as follows: The royalist forces are not monolithic; even now they are a coalition of convenience. Among the chief components of this current coalition, observers have identified: The palace, the army, the business and Bangkok-centred middle class. There's also the Yellow Shirt movement which may turn out to be a joker or wildcard in the pack.

 

The palace may feel that for them it's an all-or-nothing game, but the army and certainly the business middle-class will not think so. The army is primarily an avaricious organisation, interested in safeguarding its opportunities for profiteering (see the second post in this thread on Gay Ting Tong: LINK), and avarice can be safeguarded by making deals with opponents who look like they might win. In any case, the army itself is not united; there are some who believe in a more professional army. Then there are on the periphery the Navy, Air Force and Police who may not see their interests as identical to the Army's. As for the business class, they will not tolerate a regime that sacrifices economic health for political control.

 

Hence, this coalition of convenience may splinter should the palace demand a Myanmar-type solution. The business middle-class, if forced to choose between living under a Burmese-like junta or under a neo-Thaksin government, will choose the latter.

 

Yet so long as this coalition holds together and their handmaiden, the Abhisit government, manages to hold back the Thaksin tide by dangling the same populist carrots as Thai Rak Thai did, the democratic forces (which as Fountainhall has said, aren't all that united either) cannot win decisively either.

 

This is why I think a stalemate-like situation will last for some time until mortality carries away a Dowager, after which it's too hard to predict. Too many variables will by then be at play.

 

What if the Red Shirts really manage to seize power? It depends on how that is done. If it is done through a peaceful, electoral process and the royalist coalition crumbles rather than resists -- notwithstanding the fact that I still see crumbling as unlikely -- then the economic trends (and their effect on the sex industry) will be as I sketched earlier. Politics will not alter its course by much.

 

But if the Red Shirts seize power by more revolutionary means and quickly acquire the hubris of conquerors, then I can imagine a new scenario: One where the new politics will work to suppress the sex industry. Conquerors have a tendency to want to remake the world. If the new regime sees the sex industry as symptomatic of the ancien regime and its feudalistic patronage culture, and the exploitation ("especially of our precious Isaan youth"), moral degradation and corruption that characterised it, a puritanical streak may surface.

 

----

 

A small digression, which readers may or may not think is relevant: Towards the end of Imperial China's Qing Dynasty, the chief power in the palace was not the emperor. There were a series of weak men who were formally the emperors, but real power was in the hands of the Empress Dowager - one of the concubines of a previous emperor. While she was alive, she managed to stay in power despite having to make accommdations with one of the two forces of modernity -- the mercantilistic Western powers intruding into China. She was savage towards the other force of modernity -- the republican movement. This movement had its base of support not in the capital Peking, but in the regions, particularly Southern China. Its leader was exiled but was still effective. Back home, the republican movement raised its own army. Soon after mortality carried the Empress Dowager away, the republican revolution succeeded.

[Bob]

Besides the two scenarios noted by Khun Khortose, I believe there is a third possible scenario.

 

Perhaps someday there is a new monarch who for whatever reason wants to promote his own agenda - which might even be a surprising turn to more true democracy and reduction of rampant corruption. To exercise the power of the crown to move things in that direction, the first sign of that might be to remove the clearly powerful elements (starting with Prem) from the Privy Council and replacing them with people more attuned to where the new monarch wants to lead the country.

 

The military and other elite in control (and who have a vested interest in keeping their power and hands in the till everywhere) might just feel that this is the biggest threat to their positions and thus 1932 happens all over again with essentially a Burmese-styled government. Same result as Khun Khortose suggests but it's not the ballot box or street protests that causes it.

[Guest fountainhall]

I am loathe to be the wet blanket who douses flames, because this discussion has raised so many interesting topics that deserve to be explored further. But I do feel that we are starting to sail too close to a particular wind. I know it's a bit silly to use metaphors when it's perfectly obvious what I really mean to say. But the fact is there are rules, and consequently there are some topics we may refer to in a very general way which could pose difficulties the moment the general becomes more particular and names are named. I am certain Bob and KhorTose may not agree with me, and it may well be that the moderators have no issue with this. But for what it's worth, I suggest we need to return more to generalities.

 

macaroni21s reference to the downfall of the Qing dynasty is interesting, but requires more detailed explanation, I think. Having lived in Hong Kong for much of my professional life (and only incidentally because I had the great pleasure of serving on a committee with that great Chinese actor, Ying Ruo Chen, who played the part of the last Emperor's jailor in Bertolucci's movie), it is a subject I'd like to explore further, and will open a new thread to do so.

[Bob]

I am certain Bob and KhorTose may not agree with me, and it may well be that the moderators have no issue with this. But for what it's worth, I suggest we need to return more to generalities.

 

Unless the mods see a problem, I'm not so sure why any of us should. So far, I think everybody is being reasonably cautious with their language.

 

For not being reasonably cautious with language, you ought to read the Wikileaks cables about what Prem and a couple of his buddies had to say (allegedly). You can't find the full language in any Thai or even asian website but look around and you'll find it. If there's such a thing as lese majeste, those guys sure stepped in it.

[macaroni21]

macaroni21s reference to the downfall of the Qing dynasty is interesting, but requires more detailed explanation

 

You might begin by looking up the wikipedia entry for the Empress Dowager Cixi.

 

It may be totally irrelevant to Thailand, but I think it is always helpful to look at other Asian examples of political contestation and transition.

 

Here was an Empress Dowager who took control of an imperial household and country (through a coup d'

[Guest fountainhall]

For not being reasonably cautious with language, you ought to read the Wikileaks cables about what Prem and a couple of his buddies had to say (allegedly).

I did indeed read them, and more damaging ones about a more prominent personage. But the fact that these can not be mentioned in Thailand indicates to me that it is inadvisable to mention any detail here. Just my view.

[KhorTose]

In my view such an extreme scenario is remote. My reasons for thinking so are as follows: The royalist forces are not monolithic; even now they are a coalition of convenience. Among the chief components of this current coalition, observers have identified: The palace, the army, the business and Bangkok-centred middle class. There's also the Yellow Shirt movement which may turn out to be a joker or wildcard in the pack.

 

The palace may feel that for them it's an all-or-nothing game, but the army and certainly the business middle-class will not think so. The army is primarily an avaricious organisation, interested in safeguarding its opportunities for profiteering (see the second post in this thread on Gay Ting Tong: LINK), and avarice can be safeguarded by making deals with opponents who look like they might win. In any case, the army itself is not united; there are some who believe in a more professional army. Then there are on the periphery the Navy, Air Force and Police who may not see their interests as identical to the Army's. As for the business class, they will not tolerate a regime that sacrifices economic health for political control.

 

While I agree that the government coalition is not cohesive. I disagree that all the players are at an equal level of decision making when it comes to what will be the reaction to the Democratic movement in Thailand. Clearly to me the army and the palace are in the commanding position to decide all by themselves which way the country will go. Once again I cite the Burmese example where many of the military were friends of General Aung San, but did not hesitate to join General Ne Win and later Than Shwe in rejecting losing power to the populace. However, No need to guess as within the next two years we are going to reach a real crisis point and then the answer will probably become very apparent. As for me, I will not invest in the SET index just yet. There are two many other safe bets, and good returns are always predicated on risks.

 

You made a quick discussion of China and the dowager empress. Foutainhall disagrees, but my history says you are correct and I will discuss that issue on his thread,.