Is a Trump victory mathematically impossible?

[stevenkesslar]

So here's an interesting tidbit buried on Page 15 of a very long post-debate YouGov poll.

53 % of voters say they would not consider voting for Trump.  47 % say they will consider voting for Trump.

48 % of voters say they would not consider voting for Harris.  52 % say they will consider voting for Harris.

If voters literally had to choose between only two names, Trump or Harris, that pretty much assures Harris will win.  Unless voters are lying, or change their mind.  Trump won in 2016 in large part thanks to all those third party voters, who lowered the ceiling so Trump could win with 47 % of the vote.

In the same poll, here is what YouGov says the horse race looks like:

46 % Harris.   45 % Trump.   6 %  don't know.  2 % other.   1 % won't vote.   So let's take these voters at their word.

On the days this poll was conducted, Sept.10-11, Harris was leading Trump 1.5 % in the RCP average and 2.4 % in the 538 average.  So this poll is not an outlier.  If anything, it slightly underestimates the level of support for Harris.  So I am assuming that if 53 % of voters in this poll say they would not consider voting for Trump, that is reliable.

So the math is simple.  Of the 6 % who are undecided, Trump can get no more than 2 % of them, meaning he wins 47 % of the vote.  That was his ceiling in 2016.  Meanwhile, the other 4 % likely goes to Harris, taking her to 50 % of the vote.  That's slightly less than Biden won in 2020.  Again, people can change their mind.  But if 53 % of voters have ruled out Trump as an option, that pretty much leaves Harris as the other option.  

When Harris was leading by 2.4 % in the 538 polls on Sept. 11, she was carrying Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.   When Harris was leading by 1.5 % in the RCP average on Sept. 11, she was carrying Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.   Pennsylvania was literally tied.   All of these states polls were within the margin of error.  But my point is that if Harris wins nationally by 4 %, all the RCP and 538 averages suggest she would carry all seven swing states, including North Carolina.

The biggest problem with this theory is that there are all these marginal voters who never or rarely vote in midterms but do turn out for Trump.  So maybe the idea that 53 % of the actual electorate will not even consider voting for Trump is just wrong.  But given that he got 47 % of the vote in 2016 and 48 % in 2020, it sounds pretty right to me.  And I would bet money that turnout in 2024 will favor Democrats, compared to 2020.  In 2020 Democrats had weak face to face organizing thanks to COVID, whereas Trump was the incumbent with a well funded turnout army.  In 2024 Harris has loads of money and a massive turnout army.  Trump is weak in everything, including turnout.  They farmed turnout out to outside groups, which I would bet is going to prove to be a mistake.  So what happened with turnout in 2020 has to be viewed as a best case scenario for Trump that is unlikely to repeat in 2024.

I'll throw in one other fascinating Mark Halperin video about a focus group he conducted that I think helps explain why Harris will win.

The point of that focus group to Halperin is that anybody who is willing to listen should be able to understand why a core of voters are undecided between Trump and Harris.  Because they believe both fall short.  The parts of that video that actually involved focus group members runs from 21:00 to 40:00.  It's worth a listen.

In the final segment all eight voters are asked what is the biggest worry they have if each candidate is elected, expressed in a few words.  These two videos last only about one minute each.  I will cite verbatim what they say their biggest worries about Harris and Trump are.

 

Harris:   1)  inexperience,  2)  far left policies,  3) unknown policies   4)  too liberal    5)  too establishment    6)  unproven    7)  far left    8 ) unserious

 

 

Trump:  1)  his ego   2)  his ego on steroids   3)  division    4)  undisciplined    5)  narcissism   6)  no  focus chaos  7)  2020 craziness  and8)  lacks focus

As Halperin noted,  all the Trump worries are about his personality.  Which won't change.

The Harris concerns are all about policy.  She won't be less liberal.  But she is about as liberal as Obama, who was elected in 2008 and 2012.  She is getting better known.  As that happens, so far her favorable ratings are going up.  And she is now net positive favorable in both the TCP and 538 averages.  While most polls say Trump is more trusted on the economy, that is slowly shifting.   A new FT poll shows Harris is more trusted on the economy over Trump, 44/42.

Quote

Voters believe Harris better represents the interests of the middle class by a wide margin (49 per cent to 36 per cent) as well as small businesses (48 per cent to 37 per cent), union members (45 per cent to 35 per cent) and blue-collar workers (43 per cent to 36 per cent). Trump was seen to better represent the interests of large corporations (64 per cent to 20 per cent) and the wealthy (67 per cent to 19 per cent) by even wider margins.

There are lots of things Harris can do to make herself better known to voters, and assuage their concerns about her policies.   While she is mostly playing it safe and being vague, the polls show evidence she is gradually getting to be better known.   There is little Trump can do to change his personality.  The polls indicate he is making it hard, even for voters who prefer his policies, to vote for such a narcissistic and chaotic asshole.

 

 

[Suckrates]

Gurl, my dear sis, you're TRYING too hard.    Truth is, WE DONT KNOW the outcome till it comes.....

Whats funny though is focus group responses for those that wont vote for Harris is the "shes too this, or too that",    But Trump is TOO everything and he gets a pass, and a final consideration.   People dont seem to be believing that Trump will END Democracy, or they dont understand WHAT Democracy is ?    If supporters of Trump understood Project 2025 and how it will impact them, ALL in a negative way,  there would be no chance they would vote for Trump.   They just dont understand the Project.   But if they Do,  then they either a) dont believe it, or b) they dont Care.....   

However, I am really concerned about YOU.   Your post are getting longer and longer, which much take hours of research.  I am concerned you are not getting enough sleep, or sex.....  Take a brake, Dear, as Moses would say.    It will be What it will be, no matter how long your posts get.   And with 50 days left, PEOPLE HAVE DECIDED, even if they say they havent.   The only thing left to see is if they actually go to the polls to cast their vote, or mail it in.....

[Pete1111]

I was pondering the polls this AM while driving up the 405 and was wondering if their methodologies are sound enough for these modern times of multiple communication choices.  Snap chat.  We chat.  Mobile.  Landline.  FBook.  TikTok.  Email.  

I'm convinced all corporate news and many vloggers will say anything to get us to tune in or click through.  So my trust in the information they present is low.

Without exercising my brain at all, 47% sounds like a potential range that might reach 270 electoral votes.  That said, I hope your logic is correct!  And I hope those polls used a rock solid sampling design.  

Hopefully we won't have a James Comey kind of surprise to scare away voters still making up their mind.   

[Moses]

[Suckrates]

What the Fuck is wrong with The Teamsters.  ?    Being a Teamster member means that you belong to the strongest and most democratic labor union in the world. For more than 100 years the Teamsters Union has been a leader in setting the standard for higher wages, better benefits and improved working conditions for workers throughout the United States and Canada, ALL things that will NOT be achieved with a Trump Presidency,  but more likely with a Harris one.

In all fairness to Teamsters,  they will NOT be endorsing either candidate, yet I cant help but wonder WHY they wouldnt support Harris, if simply to reject Trump ?   

There are too many games being played with these endorsements and this election, but THIS election is not the time to play games or make political points.  Theres a much bigger goal here, which these people just seem to be forgetting.

[Moses]

[RockyRoadTravel]

3 hours ago, Moses said:

Elon Musk.  Haha.  Good one.  We missed you.  Your posts are always good as a short cut for the "line" to be followed in the MAGA echo chamber. Good to see your MAGA half truths haven't made you too despondent.

Here's the quote from Silver from the 17th:  "But the headline is that the bold prediction I made after last week’s debate looks to be coming true: Kamala Harris is moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College."

He said his model was overly negative with Harris's odds because he factored in a convention bounce to deliberately pull down her numbers, but there wasn't much of a convention bounce.  You might not get the full story in the echo chamber, you might only get random factoids that support the pre-determined MAGA party line. 

If you're ever confused again, you could reach out to guys here. A lot of the other posters seem to have access to fuller information than you seem to be able to access in the echo chamber. 

  

[Moses]

 

- Why did the Teamsters change their minds about voting for Harris?

- They met her

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

 

- Why did the Teamsters change their minds about voting for Harris?

- They met her

Geez Louise!  And all this time I was wrong.

I thought if you crossed Murderous Vlad you ended up with a bullet in your head.

But I gotta admit.  I was wrong.

It is a well known fact that Putin is a huge Kamala Harris supporter.  After all, he said so!  And yet @Moses is trashing Harris.  And he is apparently still alive.  WTF?

Maybe Genocide Man is sweeter than I thought.  No reason to think he eats dogs and cats.

Anyhoo,@Moses, not to worry.

Trump is anti-union, Harris is pro-union.  That's why the vast majority of union members support her, 57 to 41..

[Moses]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

Harris is pro-union.

Yeah, it is total true, right? And Teamsters behavior is a proof for you words.

[Moses]

You still don't get it?

I don't care who wins the US election - I don't live in the US and I'm not a US citizen. I come to this section of the forum to laugh at the hysterical, crazy lemmings from the red and blue clans.

Totally controlled by the mass propaganda, they are furiously attacking everything that is a different color. Never before in America has there been such a total split between lemmings. And what's most surprising is that the gay blue lemmings who consider themselves Democrats are even more intolerant of other people's thoughts than the Republican lemmings.

And I don't understand why you are lying to yourselves, because you are not Democrats, you are parasites on the idea of democracy: you are a group of madmen running around the forum and imposing your views. Yes! I mean "imposing", because you have zero tolerance for views that differ from yours.

Remember: your name is parasites on the ideas of democracy.

[Latbear4blk]

3 hours ago, Moses said:

I don't care who wins the US election

[Suckrates]

I am starting to think Moses is on Putins "paid operatives" list, and tasked to spread info favoring Trump in a predominantly LEFT wing media chamber....  The only problem is that noone HERE cares what Moses has to say, and has recognized his "mission" for the start...His recent stunt of presenting an electoral map clearly suggesting a Trump win is not only wrong, since recent polling doesnt coincide, but ups the transparency of his mission HERE.   I hope Moses is cashing those Putin Pay checks quickly ?  

[stevenkesslar]

4 hours ago, Moses said:

Yes! I mean "imposing", because you have zero tolerance for views that differ from yours.

Nice word.  Like conducting a genocide in Ukraine has nothing to do with "imposing" your views on others.

I tend to be overly optimistic about democracy.  You are a cynic who comes here to rationalize murderous authoritarianism and attack ideas you know nothing about.

You're entitled to your Russian pro-Genocide Man opinion.  So go ahead and call me a parasite on democracy.  It's a free country. Ours, I mean.  Not yours.

Genocide Man is a parasite on democracy.  He will kill every Russian before he allows democracy in your failed state.

[stevenkesslar]

14 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Here's the quote from Silver from the 17th:  "But the headline is that the bold prediction I made after last week’s debate looks to be coming true: Kamala Harris is moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College."

I watched Allan Lichtman's podcast a lot in the lead up to his prediction that Harris will win.  The person he despises is Nate Silver, who he refers to as a "clerk".  They got in some public spat years ago because Silver trashed Lichtman's system.

The point Lichtman makes is he puts his ass on the line every four years and actually makes a prediction.  Like now he says Harris will win.  Silver covers his ass by saying there is a 75 % chance Hillary Dumpty will win.  So when Donald Dumpty wins instead, Silver says, "See.  Told ya so.  Trump had a 25 % chance of winning."

The thing I like most about Lichtman, and what makes him unpopular with clerks like Silver, is he actually has sound ideas about why people will win, based on his keys.  People like Silver create the impression that what really matters is the drip drip drip of polls.

[Suckrates]

20 hours ago, Moses said:

What can you say about a despicable, slimy, Racist, bigoted  partisan that disowned his own child for being transgender male to female, and hitches his wagon to a convicted FELON ?    And our own @Moses eagerly buys what he is selling, DISINFORMATION.    You ARE the people you keep company with.     

[Moses]

4 hours ago, Suckrates said:

I am starting

4 hours ago, Suckrates said:

and tasked to spread info favoring Trump

Do you have cognitive problems? At past 6 months I already at least 3 times named here Trump "orange clown" and 'neo-Nazi" and "worst choice" for US.

The problem of blue clan of lemmings - all you don't want to read what other people writing. Yours eyes became red and you all became like zombied corpses and starting to gawk as soon as you read something about you walking dead Biden.

So I repeat specially for you: Trump is disaster for US. And I continue: Biden isn't better. And Kamala is "empty space - placeholder" for Dems. She is brainless and useless as a president for US - besides of ethnicity and gender, president has to have at least some political talents, but Kamala is just American version of British Liz Truss. So she is the same "worst choice" as Trump, but her color isn't red, but is blue.   

[RockyRoadTravel]

6 hours ago, Suckrates said:

I am starting to think Moses is on Putins "paid operatives" list, and tasked to spread info favoring Trump in a predominantly LEFT wing media chamber....  The only problem is that noone HERE cares what Moses has to say, and has recognized his "mission" for the start...His recent stunt of presenting an electoral map clearly suggesting a Trump win is not only wrong, since recent polling doesnt coincide, but ups the transparency of his mission HERE.   I hope Moses is cashing those Putin Pay checks quickly ?  

Paid?  Haha.  Good one 

[Suckrates]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

Do you have cognitive problems? At past 6 months I already at least 3 times named here Trump "orange clown" and 'neo-Nazi" and "worst choice" for US.

The problem of blue clan of lemmings - all you don't want to read what other people writing. Yours eyes became red and you all became like zombied corpses and starting to gawk as soon as you read something about you walking dead Biden.

So I repeat specially for you: Trump is disaster for US. And I continue: Biden isn't better. And Kamala is "empty space - placeholder" for Dems. She is brainless and useless as a president for US - besides of ethnicity and gender, president has to have at least some political talents, but Kamala is just American version of British Liz Truss. So she is the same "worst choice" as Trump, but her color isn't red, but is blue.   

Her ethnicity and gender offend you ?   Awwwww dear, so sorry.  Although your entire comment is a troubling MESS,  the BIGGEST problem is that you continue to hold a man like Putin in such high regard.   Putin is much, much worse than the reviled Trump, and Both are detestable SCUM.  For you to keep touting Putins virtues and implying that MURDER is a political talent shows that YOU are the lemming,  a SAD brainwashed catastrophe of a MAD ruler.   

[RockyRoadTravel]

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I watched Allan Lichtman's podcast a lot in the lead up to his prediction that Harris will win.  The person he despises is Nate Silver, who he refers to as a "clerk".  They got in some public spat years ago because Silver trashed Lichtman's system.

The point Lichtman makes is he puts his ass on the line every four years and actually makes a prediction.  Like now he says Harris will win.  Silver covers his ass by saying there is a 75 % chance Hillary Dumpty will win.  So when Donald Dumpty wins instead, Silver says, "See.  Told ya so.  Trump had a 25 % chance of winning."

The thing I like most about Lichtman, and what makes him unpopular with clerks like Silver, is he actually has sound ideas about why people will win, based on his keys.  People like Silver create the impression that what really matters is the drip drip drip of polls.

Lichtman's system is feeling a bit dated, or in need of a slight course correction anyway, with the MAGA echo chamber. There are naive people, like @EmmetK who believe the MAGA propaganda that the economy is toast, or believe the defeated former President isn't a weak man.  

[Moses]

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

Her ethnicity and gender

Nope. Why you again moving everything to my personality? It is habits of blue lemmings?  I had hopes what you'll get very clear idea: her nationality and gender are plus for her campaign.

[stevenkesslar]

4 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Lichtman's system is feeling a bit dated, or in need of a slight course correction anyway, with the MAGA echo chamber. There are naive people, like @EmmetK who believe the MAGA propaganda that the economy is toast, or believe the defeated former President isn't a weak man.  

Take that up with him.  He keeps arguing that people say that every four years.   We never had a Black man before.  We never had Twitter before.  We never had women voting before!  But in his mind the fundamentals never change.  

He does get it right every time, pretty much.  He did predict Gore in 2000.  And nay sayers dispute whether he is really predicting the popular vote or the electoral college.  Either way, his system is way more complex and correct than a "clerk" like Silver simply aggregating polls and coming up with models that aren't really very good at all.  In an election like 2000 where it came down to a very small number of votes in one state, I don't think it takes much away from the logic of Lichtman's keys even if you assume he was wrong about Gore.  Same with 2016.  That was not as close because it involved three states, not one.  And Lichtman did predict Trump.  But 2024 may be on the edge of a knife again.  So it definitely makes it harder to predict.

[Pete1111]

On 9/19/2024 at 8:22 AM, stevenkesslar said:

Nice word.  Like conducting a genocide in Ukraine has nothing to do with "imposing" your views on others.

I tend to be overly optimistic about democracy.  You are a cynic who comes here to rationalize murderous authoritarianism and attack ideas you know nothing about.

You're entitled to your Russian pro-Genocide Man opinion.  So go ahead and call me a parasite on democracy.  It's a free country. Ours, I mean.  Not yours.

Genocide Man is a parasite on democracy.  He will kill every Russian before he allows democracy in your failed state.

Pootie-Poo will sacrifice everything before losing.   

His power and untold wealth makes Trump's heart go pitty-pat.

How long until the Kr3ml!n stops fucking around and figures it out?

 

 

But back to the OP, Amy Walter of the Cook Report recommends not worrying too much about polling.  It's not worth it.  Based on history one might see she has a good point.

 

 

[Goober]

If VonShitzInPantz attempts another coup in January 2025, didn't the Supreme Court give Biden authority to carry out his presidential duties to have VonShitzInPantz immediately arrested and "removed"?

[Bingo T Dog]

4 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Pootie-Poo will sacrifice everything before losing.   

His power and untold wealth makes Trump's heart go pitty-pat.

How long until the Kr3ml!n stops fucking around and figures it out?

 

 

But back to the OP, Amy Walter of the Cook Report recommends not worrying too much about polling.  It's not worth it.  Based on history one might see she has a good point.

 

Looks like the purple room has a stripper pole.