Baht is likely to strengthen to 26 to 27 to the US dollar next year

[TotallyOz]

The baht is likely to strengthen to 26 to 27 to the US dollar next year, University of Thai Chamber of Commerce economic and business forecasting centre director Thanawat Polvichai said on Thursday.

 

Mr Thanawat said the baht could appreciate further because the US and European economies remain fragile.

 

The export sector in 2011 might expand only eight per cent year-on-year, down from the previous projection of 10 to 13 per cent. Crude oil prices could reach US$100 a barrel next year, he said.

 

"I expect next year's GDP growth to be around four per cent, as domestic consumption and tourism will be the main driving force instead of exports.

 

"The Bank of Thailand must intervene to curb the baht's appreciation and use tax measures to prevent speculation, while the government must continue encouraging Thai businesses to invest overseas and helping SMEs that have been affected by the strong baht," Mr Thanawat said.

 

He called on SMEs to quickly adapt to the economic changes by assessing different business risk factors.

 

They needed to use technology to gain access to more information and to understand the market, which is expanding to the regional level.

 

SME operators had to compare their operating costs with their competitors to determine their competitiveness, he said.

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/208124/utcc-stronger-baht-likely-in-2011

[Guest beachlover]

I wonder what the cost of living difference between Western countries like the US and Thailand will be like 10 to 15 years from now... will Thailand still be as easy to afford for Westerners?

[pong]

no

same-same has happened in Japan. (was a bargain-believe it or not-in the 50 ies).

Happened near overnight-well in a few weeks, in many other countries that got new fresh valuta-systems.

But there will always be a new one just getting on this exciting newly opened world of gainging money from starved farang/whitenoses.

[Guest beachlover]

But there will always be a new one just getting on this exciting newly opened world of gainging money from starved farang/whitenoses.

That's a fair point. Cambodia is developing quickly. Not as diverse and bustling as Thailand, but it must be insanely cheap to live there. No alcohol tax either. No cheaper place to enjoy top quality wines and cocktails. Beer is so cheap you probably don't even notice paying for it.

[Guest fountainhall]

After flirting with an exchange rate of 29.5, the Baht is now up again at around 30.7, despite a recent interest rate rise. Are we going to see a further weakening of the Baht, or is a target of 27 or 26 still likely by the end of this year?

[Guest Thor69]

Thailand has always been relatively cheap for foreigners. For many years it was 25 baht to the dollar. We have all been given a gift when the exchange rates were in their 30's and 40's for a long time.

 

When one country loses favor there is another coming along soon.

The draw for me is Thailand because of the ease of living.

[Guest]

I know (some of) my limitations and predicting short term exchange rates is way too uncertain.

 

Equally, some years ago I recognised the pound & dollar were inevitably going to weaken and invested accordingly. What I didn't know was precisely when that would happen.

 

Also, I have no idea what the USD/GBP/THB exchange rate will be in 12 months time.

However, considering the rate at which the US and UK governments are debasing their money, it seems prudent to invest in a variety of international markets.