The Thailand Dream....

[Guest voldemar]

As far as I know, the average American is free to buy & sell shares on most of the major stockmarkets. He can also invest in overseas funds which diversify away from the Dollar. [That's certainly how it is over here in the UK]

 

So if he invests a very large proportion of his portfolio abroad, that would be largely insulated against dollar weakness. So why should he be forced to return home, if his investments maintain their value? Am I missing something here?

 

Obviously it would have been better to build up a diversified portfolio of overseas investments over the last 10 years, or longer.

You presume that Americans will continue to have an economic freedom they have now but it is not obvious at all. You take for granted that owning international shares or currencies or precious metals or offshore banking accounts is got given right but it is not. E.g. citizens of the former Soviet Union were not allowed any of this. In case of US collapse, it will be ugly, very ugly.

[Guest]

You presume that Americans will continue to have an economic freedom they have now but it is not obvious at all. You take for granted that owning international shares or currencies or precious metals or offshore banking accounts is got given right but it is not. E.g. citizens of the former Soviet Union were not allowed any of this. In case of US collapse, it will be ugly, very ugly.

 

That is correct. However, it's not guaranteed that the US will collapse to quite that extent, although it may well get messy.

 

Also, anyone who has invested sufficient money abroad, via overseas brokers and so on may still have the option of permanently leaving the US. Money talks.

[Guest RichLB]

Aren't we becoming a bit hysterical here? While the US may lose some of it's elan, the thought of such a global catastrophe as the world' largest economy actually collapsing is unthinkable. If that should happen (and I see no way it could), the consequences to the rest of the world would result in no safe harbor for anyone.

[Guest LChicago]

Aren't we becoming a bit hysterical here? While the US may lose some of it's elan, the thought of such a global catastrophe as the world' largest economy actually collapsing is unthinkable.

 

The US economy will never collapse. It is in a tremendous amount of pain but it will recover and dominate again.

[Guest voldemar]

Aren't we becoming a bit hysterical here? While the US may lose some of it's elan, the thought of such a global catastrophe as the world' largest economy actually collapsing is unthinkable. If that should happen (and I see no way it could), the consequences to the rest of the world would result in no safe harbor for anyone.

It depends what you mean by collapse. The various scenarios of default are

actively discussed in various economic and investment circles. There is not much difference, say, between Ireland and US in terms of their abilities of meeting debt obligations. Of course, Ireland can be bailed out by EU. Nobody can bail out US but US can print money. The question is how US government will react in case where the threat one form of default or another become realistic. Depending on this reaction, Americans may suffer a lot in terms of loosing their economic freedom. It is not accidental that the number of wealthy Americans relinquishing their US citizenship growing exponentially fast.

Of course, in case of default all capital markets collapse, but the world as we know it will not cease to exist. China will definitely survive and emerge as new superpower or the world plunge in the Third world war...

[Guest beachlover]

The only way for an American to be prepared for a period of next 15=20 years is to be prepared to move back to US and most of current expats will be forced to do that much earlier. Thus, for those people who dream about retirement in Thailand, just do it while you can.

Two things come to mind - (1) just make a truckload of money and you won't have to worry too much about things going belly up.. and (2) buy shares, assets and property overseas in Asia and you'll have a stable base outside the US.

 

You presume that Americans will continue to have an economic freedom they have now but it is not obvious at all. You take for granted that owning international shares or currencies or precious metals or offshore banking accounts is got given right but it is not. E.g. citizens of the former Soviet Union were not allowed any of this. In case of US collapse, it will be ugly, very ugly.

In the unlikely event it collapses, if you own enough assets overseas you won't have to worry about that will you? Just bugger off overseas and forget about what's happening in the States.

 

Also, anyone who has invested sufficient money abroad, via overseas brokers and so on may still have the option of permanently leaving the US. Money talks.

Agree. If you're aiming to spend the last 20-30 years of your life in Thailand it would be wise to spend 5-10 years building up a portfolio of assets in Asia to ensure you have a stable financial base there. Singapore is a stable place to invest and you can do well with property there if you buy in at the right time.

 

The US economy will never collapse. It is in a tremendous amount of pain but it will recover and dominate again.

I agree it won't go down the toilet completely. There is too much depth in the businesses based in and operating out of the US.

 

However, I don't think it will dominate like it did before again. It will become a more equal global economy with countries and regions like China, India and South-East Asia rising up to match the West in terms of economic strength. We're already seeing China speed ahead with many high-tech industries, which would typically require a great deal of depth in R&D like automotive design/manufacturing, aircraft design/manufacturing, hi-tech manufacturing (think where ALL your electronics are made) and even in online media with the rise of companies like Baidu moving to match Google.

 

So in this respect, I think the days of Westerners finding a very cheap place to retire and live in Asia may be over or less juicy 10, 20 or 30 years from now.

[dapitt]

Depending on this reaction, Americans may suffer a lot in terms of loosing their economic freedom. It is not accidental that the number of wealthy Americans relinquishing their US citizenship growing exponentially fast.

 

Voldemar,

 

I have followed your posting on this subject for some time now, and I've always found your writing compelling. While what you say may alarm some (maybe all of us...at least in the U.S.), I think there is substantial reasoning to regard your dire predictions with respect. You seem to come to your views from a position of insight. With regards to the movement of capitol (out of the U.S.), I understand you to caution that such movement could conceivably be restricted in the future. I would like to know what you would consider to be prudent plans, now, by anyone anticipating relocating permanently to Thailand within the next 3 years. I would be interested to know how you would prepare, knowing what you know now. Thanks!

[Guest]

Voldemar & Beachlover have put some good ideas forward here.

 

Anyhow, if you plan to retire to Thailand within 3 years, ideally you would have been investing in Asian assets for 10 years or so already, so the exchange rate situation would not be a disaster.

 

Assuming you have substantial investments in the $ (or

[PeterRS]

just make a truckload of money and you won't have to worry too much about things going belly up

And how do you propose most people do that? Sure it makes a lot of sense. But the majority of people, including probably the majority of posters, have limited means and are at least in their 40s if not older. I'd love to make a "truckload of money" but have no idea how to do that barring a good run at the tables in Las Vegas.

[Guest beachlover]

Of course if you do move investments to Asia, there's the risk of it looking bad in 6 months time if the USD rallies. However, that's just a scenario and the main advantage is reducing your currency risk over the long term (20 years or so).

Of course. That's why your suggestion of hedging the movement of your funds over a number of years sounds wise.

 

Australia is not a bad place to invest too. Whilst my depth of understanding of the economy is limited, I believe the Australian economy's long term prospects are good for the purposes of investing to retire in Australia.

 

If I were based in the US or Europe, I would consider placing assets in Australia (pending professional advice) to hedge against whatever shit is still to come there.

 

It has been a strong economy with steady growth and no great disasters for a long time. It is stable. It is insulated from other Western economies to a certain extent (as all the recent falls since 2001 have demonstrated). Many wealthy Asians (MANY!) are investing and putting their money here in everything from property to businesses.

 

And of course, Asia is going to buying our Australian resources in great quantities for a long time to come. Resource and commodity exports to Asia are the biggest thing, which separates Australia from the US or European economies. It's why I feel pretty comfortable basing my activities and my investments here for the time being, even though I aim to spend more of my life in Asia in the future.

 

I would love to hear someone more qualified to comment, qualify or disqualify my opinion above.

 

And how do you propose most people do that? Sure it makes a lot of sense. But the majority of people, including probably the majority of posters, have limited means and are at least in their 40s if not older. I'd love to make a "truckload of money" but have no idea how to do that barring a good run at the tables in Las Vegas.

That's too broad a question... Everyone is different. I could say, start a business, work harder, work smarter, change careers, get your act together, charge more for what you do or whatever, but it wouldn't be relevant to everyone.

 

I believe your average wage earner needs better career guidance... they need greater foresight and to be more strategic in how they make career decisions, which will place them 4-5 down the track and even more so 10 years down the track. Most people seem to just place it by ear and take it as it comes in very immediate sense. It's terrible. Smarter maneuvering would see them make a greater primary income. I know guys who started on $60k 5 years ago and are still on barely $90k today. I also know guys who started on $30-$40k doing what seemed like shit jobs at the time 5 years ago who are on $400k+ today. It's interesting to see how they made their decisions in terms of which industries and sectors to chase and what kind of work they were drawn to and why.

 

After that, smarter spending decisions and more diligent investing would grow their wealth faster.

 

I decided early on I wanted something analytical, creative, people/relationship oriented, mobile (i.e. not stuck to working in or from one location) and financially lucrative... and was lucky to stumble across the right profession pretty young and was earning upwards of $100/hr from around age 21 onwards (not a prostitute)... but it's still been a tough journey and I'm not a millionaire by book value yet.

 

You remind me of someone, PeterRS...

[PeterRS]

I believe your average wage earner needs better career guidance... they need greater foresight and to be more strategic in how they make career decisions

Tell that to someone who is a dedicated teacher, fireman, nurse or other lowly paid profession with just enough money to raise a family. I'm sure they will be pleased to receive your advice.

 

If Ih ad spare cash, then I might take your advice about investing in Australia. But then I remember the time not so long ago when the Aussie dollar was under 50 to the US dollar. I think the difficulty for most people with cash to invest nowadays is how to create a balanced portfolio that is going to grow over time.

 

If I remind you of someone, I assume it's someone you'e met. I suspect this is extremely unlikely. My crowd of friend don't make anything like $100 per hour, sad to say.

[Guest beachlover]

Tell that to someone who is a dedicated teacher, fireman, nurse or other lowly paid profession with just enough money to raise a family. I'm sure they will be pleased to receive your advice.

Even lower paying professions like teachers, firemen and nurses need to align their desired outcomes and plan their careers with good foresight to land up where they want. Every occupation has different market spaces, niches, progressions and varying rewards. For example, it's possible for a high school teacher to earn 6 figures. Top private schools pay that much.

 

A good teacher with an excellent reputation can open a private tutoring school to tutor one on one or in small groups on English, Maths and other complex but important subjects for kids who need or want a boost. I know a registered nurse who started a nursing agency, which turns over $10 million+ today. She wanted to find a way to expand her income and career. She makes more than her husband (a high paying profession, I won't say what) now.

 

At the end of the day, none of this may be a priority to them, or it might not be enough of a priority for them to pro-actively do enough about it to earn what it is they really want. Or maybe they just don't believe or can conceive it's possible...

 

If Ih ad spare cash, then I might take your advice about investing in Australia. But then I remember the time not so long ago when the Aussie dollar was under 50 to the US dollar. I think the difficulty for most people with cash to invest nowadays is how to create a balanced portfolio that is going to grow over time.

True. That wasn't so long ago. But you have to weigh the need for capital growth with the need to manage currency risks and ensure the currency your investments are held in don't dive against the currencies in the location where the money will be needed. Not much point achieving 15% year on year growth if after 5 years your currency's depreciated 40% against the Thai baht while the Aussie dollar's held up.

 

If I remind you of someone, I assume it's someone you'e met. I suspect this is extremely unlikely. My crowd of friend don't make anything like $100 per hour, sad to say.

I didn't mean someone I'd met in person. Nevermind my jet setting, finger wagging friend. It might have been my imagination.

[PeterRS]

Nevermind my jet setting, finger wagging friend. It might have been my imagination.

 

I'm not sure if the jet setting refers to you or to me. If so, mine is usually of the armchair variety. More of a hobby, I suppose.

[Guest]

Tell that to someone who is a dedicated teacher, fireman, nurse or other lowly paid profession with just enough money to raise a family. I'm sure they will be pleased to receive your advice.

 

As we're talking about people who want to amass enough cash to do exactly what they like & live where they like, it's quite reasonable to suggest many people WOULD benefit from careers advice.

There will be teachers, firemen, nurses etc who are very happy with their lot & others who want to get a big increase in disposable income.

 

One thing is common, people are free to change their career.

Something I may considering too

 

As for the investment case, yes I would be more comfortable with Australia than Europe. However, if I still think it's wise to diversify part of your portfolio into Asia if you plan to spend time there.

[Guest beachlover]

As we're talking about people who want to amass enough cash to do exactly what they like & live where they like, it's quite reasonable to suggest many people WOULD benefit from careers advice.

True... "Do today what others don't... have tomorrow what others won't!"

 

As for the investment case, yes I would be more comfortable with Australia than Europe. However, if I still think it's wise to diversify part of your portfolio into Asia if you plan to spend time there.

Yeah, I mentioned Australia as it is a stable, Western nation, which may be safer to invest in than Asia and it is outside of the economic messes of the US and Europe. Singapore is also a relatively stable (politically/legally) and well developed country and it is in Asia so a good choice for investment. The country is ramping up its banking and wealth management services to become the Switzerland of Asia.

 

Personally, if I came from Europe/US I would consider investing part in Asia, part in Singapore, part in Australia, pending professional advice.

[Guest axact]

I'm sorry but from what you have written you will probably be one of the many who comes here with a large fortune and leave sometime later disillusioned with a small fortune if any or join one of the many farangs that commit suicide here.

 

Get a reality check, your only interest in Thailand is the availability of sex,(the climate you can match by moving elsewhere in the states) So many westerners who think through their cocks make that mistake, They move a bar boy / girl into their lives who are however you dress it up are prostitutes, they think its true love, I guess it is, you love the body, he loves your money. Would you move in with a prostitute back home ? Why do it here ? You could just be a butterfly, constantly mongering but that attraction soon wears off. Most never even make the effort to learn the language or try to understand the culture.

 

Thailand is a great place to live but is heavily stacked against farangs, many get tired of the scams, the endemic corruption, the Issan mentality, the filth, the crime the endless paperwork, the yearly visa renewal (or 3 monthly if not on a retirement visa).Farangs are not allowed to buy land or property (unless you want a condo), a company must be 51% Thai owned.

 

I am sure that the guys on this forum who have made it work for them could tell you of the countless number who have not.

 

There is a wealth of reading on the internet but unless you holiday here regularly and then live here for 3-6 months you will have no idea if Thailand is really the place for you. Have you considered being so far away from all your friends and family. How easy can you make friends with other expats ? Do not sell your assets at home in case you need an escape route is excellent advice given by these guys on the forum.

 

I hope you take the suggestions offered by the seasoned expats so as you don't make a big mistake enabling all your friends and family saying 'I told you so'

 

To the forum members, I hope I did not come across to negative, I love the country warts and all but I think it takes a particular type of person to be able to live here. I have come across so many moaning or on 'their way home'soured expats who blame the country for all their woes.

 

Forum Mods: Please feel free to delete my post if it's too negative.

[Guest]

That post is well & truly within the rules.

 

1 We're not all starting off from the US. What I do know is the Thai weather in the winter is superior to anything we will find in Europe at that time of year. When we also consider the relaxed friendly culture, the low prices & the nightlife, then Thailand is a truly excellent winter holiday destination.

 

2 Owning businesses & property is a different matter. Why would you even want to bother if Thailand does not permit this? Invest your money in other Asian countries that ARE investor friendly, to escape from the long term downside risks on the $ &

[PeterRS]

At the end of the day, none of this may be a priority to them, or it might not be enough of a priority for them to pro-actively do enough about it to earn what it is they really want. Or maybe they just don't believe or can conceive it's possible...

 

Your suggestions are all obviously possible. But you hit the nail on the head I think in your views on priorities. For most people, making a ton of cash is maybe a dream, but not a priority. In the same way, people concentrate on today rather than tomorrow. Life becomes stuck in a rut, pleasurable or otherwise. Getting out takes a great deal of will power and guts, which I reckon few people have. This is even more true the older one gets when changing professions or training for new ones becomes much more of a gamble.

 

The only career advice I ever received was lousy. Same with much of the investment advice. Now that I am older and hopefully wiser, I see where i made my mistakes. Thankfully they were not too damaging, but I'd still love to summon up the courage to have a crack at the tables in Las Vegas!

[Guest beachlover]

your only interest in Thailand is the availability of sex

That may be true for him, but sex is a powerful motivator.

 

I think for most people who move to Thailand there are lots of other aspects of the country they enjoy.

 

Your words of caution are extremely wise... There are lots of gay guys who move to Thailand and have a great life there, but also plenty of degenerates and miserable people who didn't think things through, acted for the wrong reasons or didn't prioritise right.

 

When we also consider the relaxed friendly culture, the low prices & the nightlife, then Thailand is a truly excellent winter holiday destination.

Totally true... Fascinating culture and charming people. Plus as an Asian, I would really enjoy being around more Asians (and so would, I suppose, those farangs who especially like Asians).

 

All the Thai corruption & opposition to inward investment will effectively be holding the Thai economy back. If there were no such restrictions, the Thai economy would be more successful & going to Thailand on holiday would be MORE expensive. So we don't do too badly out of such policies. That' doesn't mean they are right.

That's a valid point... Just imagine if Thailand was as economically successful as Singapore or Hong Kong!

[Guest beachlover]

Your suggestions are all obviously possible. But you hit the nail on the head I think in your views on priorities. For most people, making a ton of cash is maybe a dream, but not a priority. In the same way, people concentrate on today rather than tomorrow. Life becomes stuck in a rut, pleasurable or otherwise. Getting out takes a great deal of will power and guts, which I reckon few people have. This is even more true the older one gets when changing professions or training for new ones becomes much more of a gamble.

That sums it up well and I can relate to that.

 

I'm still in my twenties so if I f*cked up now, I'd be back on the horse going hard at it again in no time. I'm not overly worried about losing everything I have at this stage. Plus I don't have my own family to support (though I do support some family members to an extent).

 

The only career advice I ever received was lousy.

I think that applies to 99.9% of people. And most of the exceptions I see are people who are already in the right industry and vocation and have a good mentor to better guide their career - but they need career advice to pick that career to get there first!

 

Same with much of the investment advice.

I think that's something you have to read up on plus seek out advice and education on. Most people don't for the same reasons you explain above... their main career and look after friends and family are already such a burden. A financial planner once told me this is a great shame and very foolish because the decisions they make in this area are largely going to determine the quality of life they have 20-30 years ahead.

 

I'd still love to summon up the courage to have a crack at the tables in Las Vegas!

Had an interesting experience a little while back... Couldn't get a seat at the restaurant some time ago. Was advised we would be waiting about two hours. We were near a casino so thought we'd go have a flutter. I had never been to a casino before. Sat down at a blackjack for a while to watch how it worked. Then bought in with $400. Came out an hour later with over $1,000 (almost $1,500 I think). Wooooo! In fact, out of our group of 5, 3 played and all 3 came out ahead.

 

Now, some people would be amazed at the ease at, which this money came and go back for more. But logic tells you on average they take more money than they give. And that these little episodes of "luck" is how they get people hooked. Coming out of there, had I been a less rational man and none the wiser, I would have been convinced playing the blackjack tables was a sure winner. I mean we just kept clocking up the wins... I still haven't experienced losing at a casino.

 

I reckon I could go back and maybe lose the next time and give it up. But what would be more profitable for the casino is if I went back and won the next 6 times in a row, became addicted and kept going back regardless of win/loss. Statistically, they would get their money back off me and more...