Another military coup is unlikely say experts

[reader]

From Pattaya Mail

By Barry Kenyon

Although Thailand has suffered a military coup about every seven years since 1932, experts say the conditions are not right for a putsch right now. Coup historian Barbara Tuchman said, “To put the garment of legitimacy is the first aim of every coup,” but the circumstances are very different from those in 2014 when general Prayut Chan-o-cha cancelled the constitution with considerable public support. For example, the Ministry of Defence regulations have now been amended to allow the prime minister to suspend generals suspected of planning a coup as well as abolishing the military courts against which there was no appeal.

More significantly, the military-supporting civilian “yellow shirts” who organized vast street demonstrations against the civilian administration 10 years ago are no longer a powerful force in Thai politics. At that time, the pretext for military intervention was the attempt in parliament to abandon the criminal charges against exiled Thaksin Shinawatra and allow him to “come home”. Of course Thaksin is now a free man, having received even a pardon from the monarch, and an influential adviser to the ruling Pheu Thai party. The former prime minister two days ago dismissed the possibility of another coup precisely because the ingredients of violence and chaos on the Bangkok streets isn’t present.

These days the military-backed parties in the Thai parliament are much weaker than before. The unelected Senate, with 250 individuals nominated by the Prayut government, has been abolished and its successor body is not empowered to play any part in choosing the prime minister. Former deputy premier general Prawit Wongsuwon heads up the small Palang Pracharath Party, but this has recently split into two feuding parts with about half its members actually joining the civilian Pheu Thai administration. General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who split with general Prawit before last year’s general election, has now retired from active politics to become a member of the Privy Council. The Thai army, with its 1,700 generals, is no longer a unified force in the political arena.

Of course, the advent of yet another ruling military junta cannot be discounted altogether. Suspicion of billionaire tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra remains very significant and he has yet to face a trial on charges of disloyalty to the crown. But the main argument against the likelihood of a coup is the existence of an alternative way of subverting politics: the constitution court. The unelected body of nine judges, created in 1997, has jurisdiction over the constitutionality of parliamentary acts, the appointment and removal of public officials and issues regarding political parties.

This is the body which recently banned the popular Move Forward Party (now renamed People’s Party) and dismissed the prime minister Srettha Thavisin. Many observers now refer to the reality of judicial coups rather than military interventions. There is no need for “warfare” when you have “lawfare”.

 

[Keithambrose]

43 minutes ago, reader said:

From Pattaya Mail

By Barry Kenyon

Although Thailand has suffered a military coup about every seven years since 1932, experts say the conditions are not right for a putsch right now. Coup historian Barbara Tuchman said, “To put the garment of legitimacy is the first aim of every coup,” but the circumstances are very different from those in 2014 when general Prayut Chan-o-cha cancelled the constitution with considerable public support. For example, the Ministry of Defence regulations have now been amended to allow the prime minister to suspend generals suspected of planning a coup as well as abolishing the military courts against which there was no appeal.

More significantly, the military-supporting civilian “yellow shirts” who organized vast street demonstrations against the civilian administration 10 years ago are no longer a powerful force in Thai politics. At that time, the pretext for military intervention was the attempt in parliament to abandon the criminal charges against exiled Thaksin Shinawatra and allow him to “come home”. Of course Thaksin is now a free man, having received even a pardon from the monarch, and an influential adviser to the ruling Pheu Thai party. The former prime minister two days ago dismissed the possibility of another coup precisely because the ingredients of violence and chaos on the Bangkok streets isn’t present.

These days the military-backed parties in the Thai parliament are much weaker than before. The unelected Senate, with 250 individuals nominated by the Prayut government, has been abolished and its successor body is not empowered to play any part in choosing the prime minister. Former deputy premier general Prawit Wongsuwon heads up the small Palang Pracharath Party, but this has recently split into two feuding parts with about half its members actually joining the civilian Pheu Thai administration. General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who split with general Prawit before last year’s general election, has now retired from active politics to become a member of the Privy Council. The Thai army, with its 1,700 generals, is no longer a unified force in the political arena.

Of course, the advent of yet another ruling military junta cannot be discounted altogether. Suspicion of billionaire tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra remains very significant and he has yet to face a trial on charges of disloyalty to the crown. But the main argument against the likelihood of a coup is the existence of an alternative way of subverting politics: the constitution court. The unelected body of nine judges, created in 1997, has jurisdiction over the constitutionality of parliamentary acts, the appointment and removal of public officials and issues regarding political parties.

This is the body which recently banned the popular Move Forward Party (now renamed People’s Party) and dismissed the prime minister Srettha Thavisin. Many observers now refer to the reality of judicial coups rather than military interventions. There is no need for “warfare” when you have “lawfare”.

 

I always find this sort of discussion interesting,  talking about military coups as a way of life! '7 years gone, time for another coup'! The argument  now seems to be that the Constitutional Court,  members installed  by the Army, can be relied upon to do the bidding of the Army, without a coup. We will see. What happens if the Government  tries  to reform the Constitutional Court,  and install neutral judges?

[khaolakguy]

I am not sure that it is correct to say that the members of the Constitutional Court are appointed by the army(at least not directly). 

The mechanics of Thai politics are byzantine to say the least.

"Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive"!

This is an entertaining read for anyone interested in the set up and workings of the Constitutional Court etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand

This is the same court that ruled on gay marriage :

 

Quote

In 2021, the court ruled that Section 1448 of the Civil and Commercial Code interpreting marriages as only between women and men is constitutional. The full text of the ruling says that members of the LGBTQ community cannot reproduce, as it is against nature, and that they are no different from other animals with unusual behaviours or physical characteristics. The text was deemed by some as sexist, politically incorrect and demeaning.

 

 

[Keithambrose]

1 hour ago, khaolakguy said:

I am not sure that it is correct to say that the members of the Constitutional Court are appointed by the army(at least not directly). 

The mechanics of Thai politics are byzantine to say the least.

"Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive"!

This is an entertaining read for anyone interested in the set up and workings of the Constitutional Court etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand

This is the same court that ruled on gay marriage :

 

 

 

I take your point, but I thought that the Army, and now he who cannot be named, control political issues, at least indirectly.  That would mean that the  Court could hand down a liberal decision,  gay marriage, that doesn't affect those in effective power.

[omega]

52 minutes ago, Keithambrose said:

I take your point, but I thought that the Army, and now he who cannot be named, control political issues, at least indirectly.  That would mean that the  Court could hand down a liberal decision,  gay marriage, that doesn't affect those in effective power.

The politics extends into the Army, as well. There are is factionalism there too.

[reader]

4 minutes ago, omega said:

The politics extends into the Army, as well. There are is factionalism there too.

Once read that there are more flag grade officers (generals, admirals) in Thai military than there are in US military. It is indeed a very political environment.

[Keithambrose]

4 hours ago, omega said:

The politics extends into the Army, as well. There are is factionalism there too.

Yes, it was said there was friction between Prayut and Prawit, as Prawit was nominally the senior.  I suspect it depends  on how they cut the cake, or the watches, in the case of Prawit!