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stevenkesslar

Can Democrats Keep The Senate? Could Florida Be In Play?

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I'm starting to wonder whether Democrats can actually keep the Senate?   The "Biden must go" campaign was partly based around Pelosi and the idea that, at the very least, Democrats MUST keep the House as a bulwark against the worst things Trump could do.   The flip side is that now, if I go by the generic Congressional vote, Democrats have at least a 50/50 shot of keeping the House.  But, to get anything done, they will need the Senate.

Manchin's seat is already gone.  So the 50/50 split scenario means Democrats must win in two red state:  Brown in Ohio, Tester in Montana.  That of course assumes that every Democrat in a swing state wins.  But that actually seems like at least a 50/50 chance, too.  They are all leading in the polls, by more than they were when Biden was running and losing in their states.  Now Harris is winning or tied in their states.   So the idea that we have at least 48, and Democrats win every swing state, seems realistic.

The only example of Senators beating the tide, meaning a Republican won in a state that voted for Biden, is Collins in 2020 and Johnson in 2022.  Of course, if you go back to 2018 Brown and Tester did both win in states that Trump won in 2016.  So they have done it before.  Maybe they can do it again.  Right now Brown has a small lead in the polls, and Tester is a few points behind.  I just read one alarming thing is Trump is internally several points behind where he was in 2020 in Ohio.  More than enough to win by, but weaker than 2020.  So native hillbilly venture capitalist JD ain't helping.   

But the other interesting one is Florida.  Harris is now way ahead in polls in Dade County.  It was Hispanics in and around Miami that helped turn Florida into what looks like a red state now.  And there is no getting around the massive surge in Republican registration in the state since 2020.  But it was only six years ago that DeSantis barely won Guv, and Rick Scott barely won his Senate race.

The last three polls show Scott up by +4, +2, and +13.   The +13 poll was from June, from The Tyson Group.  The +2 was also from June, from Florida Atlantic University.  The +4 poll was as recent as July 27, from University of North Florida.  I checked in 2022.  Back then, in October, University of Florida had Rubio at +11, and Florida Atlantic had Rubio at +6.  There was no Tyson Group poll in 2022.   But average the two polls from October 2022 and they suggested Rubio would win by something like 8.5 points.  He won by 8.8 points.  They were accurate.  Right now, if the same two polls are accurate, Scott is only 3 points ahead, with the wind at the Democrats' back and a candidate that always barely wins.

I've grown used to the idea that Florida is a waste of money.  It certainly was in 2022, at least as far as the Senate race went.  But maybe in 2024 that Senate race could be in play.  And if Democrats could beat the odds and pick up a seat, it would be an insurance policy if Tester in particular loses.

Plus, it would be a national symbol that all that magic of both Trump and DeSantis has peaked.

DeSantis has one of the highest governor disapproval ratings, poll finds

 

Those are not awful numbers.  He has 44 % disapproval, but 51 % approval.   It's a lot worse than 2022, when he was riding a wave of bipartisan approval after being seen as doing a good job after the hurricane.  Then he squandered it all on his right wing agenda, which neither Florida nor America wanted.   Which says something in itself.  So it could be another cycle of close but not quite.   But if the momentum keeps building maybe that Senate seat in Florida could be in play???

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For the Latino voters that equate Socialists with the Venezuela and Cuba experiences, 

will the Dems be able to counter the GOP claim that Dems are socialists?   Have the Dems been busy working on that?

Same thing for the flat earthers that hear the GOP refer to Dem candidates as globalists.   Globalists further the conspiracy the earth is round, by exposing children to maps and globes.  I doubt the Dems even know how many flat earthers are our there.  It's a lot.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/kandiss-taylor-globes-anti-flat-earth-brainwashing-1234741082/

Have the Dems realized there is all kinds of work to be done beyond pandering to the women's health issue and how the GOP is weird vs. the Dems are the good guys that really "get it"?

I recall how that kind of strategy didn't work for Hillary Clinton.  

The modern GOP sh!t show helps.  But are the Dems smart enough to pay attention to all the misinformed voters that need an alternate message?

I doubt it.  By now it is probably too late to change minds anyway.

With the time remaining, the Dems need to convince voters to vote.  Seems like they are busy working that big piece.

Will that be enough to keep the Senate Blue?

Hope so.

 

 

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The language of Trumps P2025 is to "eradicate this, eradicate that"....  purge ALL govt workers that arent LOYAL to Trump and replace them with YES men.

What Dems need to do is "eradicate"  ALL GOP sycophants in the House and Senate, the ones unpatriotic and unLOYAL to the Constitution, and replace them with experienced people that Love their country and Love to SERVE it.....  Only then will we be able to get some work done, and perhaps revamp the Corrupt Supreme Court, which will play a major role in whatever administration we get for 2024. 

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5 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Same thing for the flat earthers that hear the GOP refer to Dem candidates as globalists.   Globalists further the conspiracy the earth is round, by exposing children to maps and globes.  I doubt the Dems even know how many flat earthers are our there.  It's a lot.

I'll assume that this is tongue-in-cheek satire about "globalists." 🌏

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7 minutes ago, Marc in Calif said:

I'll assume that this is tongue-in-cheek satire about "globalists." 🌏

I wish it was.

Kari Lake and Lauren Boebert campaigns have both used the "globalists" scare tactic.  I am pretty sure they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for flat earther votes.

The Rolling Stone article is shocking to me how a leading Republican in Georgia aligns with the flat earth crowd.

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6 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

But are the Dems smart enough to pay attention to all the misinformed voters that need an alternate message?

I doubt it.  By now it is probably too late to change minds anyway.

A few points on this, which are part guessing and maybe part wishful thinking.

John Della Volpe, who is considered the scholar of the "youth vote", was on MSNBC or CNN a few days ago on a polling segment.  He commented on how Harris now has about 55 % of voters 18-29.   He commented on how she has work to do, but she should be able to firm that up to 60 %.   Which is what Biden won with that age group in the exit polls in 2020.  He clearly thinks it's doable.  The latest polls show Blacks voting in the high teens for Trump, compared to 12 % in 2020.  So the shift that has already occurred from RFK or undecided to Harris puts Harris in a slight lead, both nationally and in swing states.  If she can in fact solidify and expand and excite that base vote, getting Biden's 2020 numbers would give her a more substantial lead.

And in terms of the persuadable vote, I think it's possible that there will be a big rejection of MAGA at the polls in November.  It depends on Trump, I think.  He should be hammering away at inflation and immigration.  All the weird and deranged stuff he instead babbles about reminds people why they just really want to be free of the lies and division and weird creepy rapey cringe of the felon who loses and loses and loses.

220px-GeoffDuncan2018.jpg

And, yeah, there are some flat earth Republicans.  But that guy surprised me.  He's the former Lieutenant Guv of Georgia, who won by about 3 points in 2018. He chose not to run again in 2022 because of all Trump's lies about the election.  In May 2024 he wrote an article about why he was voting for Biden, and other Republicans should, too.  

And then there is this piece conservative David French just wrote.

Quote

The only real hope for restoring a conservatism that values integrity, demonstrates real compassion and defends our foundational constitutional principles isn’t to try to make the best of Trump, a man who values only himself. If he wins again, it will validate his cruelty and his ideological transformation of the Republican Party. If Harris wins, the West will still stand against Vladimir Putin, and conservative Americans will have a chance to build something decent from the ruins of a party that was once a force for genuine good in American life.

So who knows.   The polls say the MAGA crowd is excited and highly motivated.   But I can hear my Reagan Republican Dad in these conservatives voices.  Like, let's just cut out the cancer now and be rid of it and grow back a party that is healthier and less cruel.  I think part of it is a lot of Republicans, like these two, realize Trump is tying them to a movement that only looks backward.  And mostly loses.

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4 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Kari Lake and Lauren Boebert campaigns have both used the "globalists" scare tactic.  I am pretty sure they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for flat earther votes.

The Rolling Stone article is shocking to me how a leading Republican in Georgia aligns with the flat earth crowd.

So you really think that the world "globalist" in political discourse refers to someone who believe that the earth is round and not flat?

Again, if this is meant as satire, I applaud you! If not, some explanation is in order. 😇

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On 8/13/2024 at 6:52 PM, Mavica said:

Florida will not be in play, for either of the Presidential or U.S. Senate contests.  Nobody really good will run for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat.

That's probably right.   What obviously helps Republicans is they went from having equal registrations with Democrats in 2021 to now having a 1 million registered voter edge.

One Florida politico said that, in effect, shifts Florida from a generic R+2 to an R+10.  If true, that's pretty overwhelming.

That said, what comes up may come down.  DeSantis was definitely on a roll for a while.  As far as I can tell from polls, he peaked after the hurricane, due to bipartisan support for the job he did cleaning up.   But the Florida culture war show that led up to 2024 did not go so well for Ron - either in Florida, or nationally.  So just because COVID and a hurricane led to a period of Republican dominance, I'm not sure I'd assume that is now long lasting.  A lot of it depends on Hispanics, at least some of whom seem to be shifting to Harris.

At the Presidential level, there are four recent Florida polls.  RCP says the average is Trump +6.3 in Florida.   But the two polls in July when Biden was the candidate average Trump +8.5, whereas the two polls with Harris running average Trump +4   The most recent one, just out by Florida Atlantic, says Trump +3.  So it seems to be getting closer.

There's an interesting comparison between two new polls by ActiVote, one of the nation and one of Florida.  In the national vote, Harris leads by 5.  In the Florida vote, Trump leads by 8.   ActiVote spells out how they weighted the voting.  

Here's national:

AD_4nXcGETjL3-AOaM12KWdoH3iV7A1WE_6Xsl95

And here's Florida:

AD_4nXf9PdafCr8FJ04TaZhrJmwzgqL3jyM2IjRD

So in both cases ActiVote says conservatives are stronger than the unweighted sample.  But particularly in Florida they say conservatives just massively outnumber liberals.  Again, if true, that is overwhelming.  Right now ActiVote is saying Harris is doing better than her national average, which is +3, and worse than the Florida average, which as I said above is as low as Trump +3 in one recent poll.   All of this does suggests that the math just ain't gonna work for Democrats in Florida.  But if it close, Democrats could flip back some other seats.

Which leads us back to the Senate.  Rick Scott has never run anything other than a close race, for Guv or Senate.  So maybe the Republican 1 million voter registration edge is his magic bullet.  But I wouldn't rule it out as possible yet.  

In most recent polls, Harris is also doing slightly better than Trump with centrists and Independents.  ActiVote fits with another trend.   When Biden was running, slightly more Democrats were going to vote for Trump than Republicans voting for Biden.  Presumably based on worries about Biden's age.  Now it has flipped.  Trump is losing more of his base to Harris than Harris is to Trump. 

That's what he gets for being a crook and a liar, I guess.  😉

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On 8/15/2024 at 1:16 PM, stevenkesslar said:

That's probably right.   What obviously helps Republicans is they went from having equal registrations with Democrats in 2021 to now having a 1 million registered voter edge.

One Florida politico said that, in effect, shifts Florida from a generic R+2 to an R+10.  If true, that's pretty overwhelming.

That said, what comes up may come down.  DeSantis was definitely on a roll for a while.  As far as I can tell from polls, he peaked after the hurricane, due to bipartisan support for the job he did cleaning up.   But the Florida culture war show that led up to 2024 did not go so well for Ron - either in Florida, or nationally.  So just because COVID and a hurricane led to a period of Republican dominance, I'm not sure I'd assume that is now long lasting.  A lot of it depends on Hispanics, at least some of whom seem to be shifting to Harris.

At the Presidential level, there are four recent Florida polls.  RCP says the average is Trump +6.3 in Florida.   But the two polls in July when Biden was the candidate average Trump +8.5, whereas the two polls with Harris running average Trump +4   The most recent one, just out by Florida Atlantic, says Trump +3.  So it seems to be getting closer.

There's an interesting comparison between two new polls by ActiVote, one of the nation and one of Florida.  In the national vote, Harris leads by 5.  In the Florida vote, Trump leads by 8.   ActiVote spells out how they weighted the voting.  

Here's national:

AD_4nXcGETjL3-AOaM12KWdoH3iV7A1WE_6Xsl95

And here's Florida:

AD_4nXf9PdafCr8FJ04TaZhrJmwzgqL3jyM2IjRD

So in both cases ActiVote says conservatives are stronger than the unweighted sample.  But particularly in Florida they say conservatives just massively outnumber liberals.  Again, if true, that is overwhelming.  Right now ActiVote is saying Harris is doing better than her national average, which is +3, and worse than the Florida average, which as I said above is as low as Trump +3 in one recent poll.   All of this does suggests that the math just ain't gonna work for Democrats in Florida.  But if it close, Democrats could flip back some other seats.

Which leads us back to the Senate.  Rick Scott has never run anything other than a close race, for Guv or Senate.  So maybe the Republican 1 million voter registration edge is his magic bullet.  But I wouldn't rule it out as possible yet.  

In most recent polls, Harris is also doing slightly better than Trump with centrists and Independents.  ActiVote fits with another trend.   When Biden was running, slightly more Democrats were going to vote for Trump than Republicans voting for Biden.  Presumably based on worries about Biden's age.  Now it has flipped.  Trump is losing more of his base to Harris than Harris is to Trump. 

That's what he gets for being a crook and a liar, I guess.  😉

Today's thought.  All the "red" States are in the Missouri/Mississippi drainage basin, the rest of the country is "blue". (The blue exceptions being Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, and red exceptions South Carolina, Florida, Alaska and Maine 2.) 

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1 hour ago, Pete1111 said:

Trump can keep Florida.

 

image.thumb.png.6befd492d06558be63003ceb3e075529.png

There HE sits, hatching his new economics plan, OR insult for Cackles...... His entire campaign team is under there. 

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Trump was live from PA today.

He brought a young Latino man to discuss how bad things are under Venezuelan socialism, and how the education system has been modeled after Cuba.  After his address he repeated the speech in Spanish.

 

Some of the Dems get it, that Latino voters need their focus.  

But, thinking back to the 2020 Dem convention, 

the Party missed a chance to appeal.

IMO they fucked up a chance to win Latino confidence.

 

Let's see what happens next week.

That said, Florida seems out of reach to me. 

Yet I am encouraged that  Steven  K proposes the possibility that voter preference  in Florida might shift.

 

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6 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Trump was live from PA today.

He brought a young Latino man to discuss how bad things are under Venezuelan socialism, and how the education system has been modeled after Cuba.  After his address he repeated the speech in Spanish.

 

Some of the Dems get it, that Latino voters need their focus.  

But, thinking back to the 2020 Dem convention, 

the Party missed a chance to appeal.

IMO they fucked up a chance to win Latino confidence.

 

Let's see what happens next week.

That said, Florida seems out of reach to me. 

Yet I am encouraged that  Steven  K proposes the possibility that voter preference  in Florida might shift.

 

What has Venezuela got to do with anything?  The only candidate proposing a dictatorship is Trump.

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5 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

What has Venezuela got to do with anything?  The only candidate proposing a dictatorship is Trump.

Nothing, but you know Trump.   If he wants to prove that he loves Blacks, he calls Central Casting and asks them to send him over a few assorted Black people, who he then uses as props, putting them in the front rows at his rally.... Bingo bango, " See MY Blacks, The Blacks LOVE Me "....

Same thing with Latinos.....He imports them to his rallys to prove to Americans THEY support him..... I wonder HOW MUCH the Venezuelan guy got paid ?   

Both of these groups are Targets of Trump hate & oppression,  so they generally loathe and reject him and would have to be INSANE to support HIM.   BUT, everyone could use a few extra bucks !        Having these people at his rallys is HIS way of showing their "fealty" to him....   Otherwise the rallys would be an unbroken sea of White. 

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If Tester doesn't win in Montana, how does the Harris campaign convey how completely obstructionist and insane a MAGA Senate is going to be, while sticking to their positive future vibes message? 

It's a criticism I have of the Democrats in Congress, not that I have an answer, it seems to me that they've never really been able to articulate how obstructionist the GOP has been for the last 14 years. In 2010 the Tea Bagging crazies took over the GOP agenda - and created chaos in government to distract from the Supreme Court legislating from the bench, with their life time appointments and their Christian Sharia law outlook.  

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On 8/15/2024 at 1:16 PM, stevenkesslar said:

That's probably right.   What obviously helps Republicans is they went from having equal registrations with Democrats in 2021 to now having a 1 million registered voter edge.

One Florida politico said that, in effect, shifts Florida from a generic R+2 to an R+10.  If true, that's pretty overwhelming.

That said, what comes up may come down.  DeSantis was definitely on a roll for a while.  As far as I can tell from polls, he peaked after the hurricane, due to bipartisan support for the job he did cleaning up.   But the Florida culture war show that led up to 2024 did not go so well for Ron - either in Florida, or nationally.  So just because COVID and a hurricane led to a period of Republican dominance, I'm not sure I'd assume that is now long lasting.  A lot of it depends on Hispanics, at least some of whom seem to be shifting to Harris.

At the Presidential level, there are four recent Florida polls.  RCP says the average is Trump +6.3 in Florida.   But the two polls in July when Biden was the candidate average Trump +8.5, whereas the two polls with Harris running average Trump +4   The most recent one, just out by Florida Atlantic, says Trump +3.  So it seems to be getting closer.

There's an interesting comparison between two new polls by ActiVote, one of the nation and one of Florida.  In the national vote, Harris leads by 5.  In the Florida vote, Trump leads by 8.   ActiVote spells out how they weighted the voting.  

Here's national:

AD_4nXcGETjL3-AOaM12KWdoH3iV7A1WE_6Xsl95

And here's Florida:

AD_4nXf9PdafCr8FJ04TaZhrJmwzgqL3jyM2IjRD

So in both cases ActiVote says conservatives are stronger than the unweighted sample.  But particularly in Florida they say conservatives just massively outnumber liberals.  Again, if true, that is overwhelming.  Right now ActiVote is saying Harris is doing better than her national average, which is +3, and worse than the Florida average, which as I said above is as low as Trump +3 in one recent poll.   All of this does suggests that the math just ain't gonna work for Democrats in Florida.  But if it close, Democrats could flip back some other seats.

Which leads us back to the Senate.  Rick Scott has never run anything other than a close race, for Guv or Senate.  So maybe the Republican 1 million voter registration edge is his magic bullet.  But I wouldn't rule it out as possible yet.  

In most recent polls, Harris is also doing slightly better than Trump with centrists and Independents.  ActiVote fits with another trend.   When Biden was running, slightly more Democrats were going to vote for Trump than Republicans voting for Biden.  Presumably based on worries about Biden's age.  Now it has flipped.  Trump is losing more of his base to Harris than Harris is to Trump. 

That's what he gets for being a crook and a liar, I guess.  😉

Looking back, and the impact of the not working the voter turnout/pandemic campaigning of 2022, that Wisconsin seat that Ron Johnson won by 1% is sure going to come back and bite America in the ass.  

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On 8/18/2024 at 12:18 PM, RockyRoadTravel said:

If Tester doesn't win in Montana, how does the Harris campaign convey how completely obstructionist and insane a MAGA Senate is going to be, while sticking to their positive future vibes message? 

That question was pre-DNC.   So I think we now have a somewhat better answer.   

The correct answer is simply stated, but seemingly impossible to do.  Democrats do not have to convince people in Montana that they are wrong, or racist, or obstructionist, or whatever.  Democrats have to change so that people in Montana actually want to elect them.  Tester knows this, as does Brown.  And they know they face strong headwinds.  Brown and Tester correctly wanted nothing to do with the DNC.

That said, Claire McCaskill - who as the last Democratic Senator from Missouri knows a lot about this - expressed her joy in the fact that during the DNC Democrats took over football, flags, and fun.  And with Trump you have America in decline and raping immigrants.  So hopefully Claire is right and that helps.  Democrats are not all woke radicals who know nothing about Montana.  They are Tim Walz, who believes in gun control.  But who hunts and can kill you with a gun with great precision.  But he just wants to make sure kids trying to learn ain't hungry.  And poor White kids in Montana or Minnesota are not poor.

I think the reason Republicans go to culture war and White Male Identity Issues is they really don't have an economic program that works.  Repeal Obamacare?  Cut taxes for the rich?  There are young White men who like the idea of getting a small tax cut, while corporations get windfalls.  But if Democrats are going to win in Montana, or Missouri, or in Tim Walz's old Minnesota House seat, they have to go back to economic populism.  And distance themselves from woke culture stuff.  That House district birthed Tim Walz, and Paul Wellstone, who was a college professor there and broke a 12 year Republican lock on Minnesota Senate seats.  And they both did it by pushing economic populism and "I'm the little guy for the little guy" relentlessly.  They were both also White men, which probably helped.

This is what Ruy Teixeira keeps saying. Democrats need to push centrism.  Of at least left of center centrism.   And to some degree it was on display at the DNC last week.  That said, what a lot of Republicans said about the DNC is that, if you didn't know better, you'd think 70 % of America is Black women.  There were White men at the DNC, including Tim Walz. But it is probably telling that when many Republican White men see White men are the minority in the room, they find it kind of uncomfortable to simply be the minority.

Here's a fun fact.  Obama came within two points of winning Montana in 2008, which was last won by a Democrat by Clinton in 1992.  How did that happen?  There are a few things that had to be part of it.  First, Obama had to appeal to the farmer/labor prairie populism tradition that is a big part of how Democrats win in places like Montana and Minnesota.  Second, Montana voters couldn't have been that racist if they voted for the Black guy to be the messenger.  In 2008 at least.  So Democrats better figure out what changed since 2008.  By 2012 Obama lost by over 10 points in Montana.  Every other Presidential race in the 21st century Democrats lost by anywhere from 15 to 30 points in Montana.  Montana still likes Tester enough as a messenger - barely enough.  But he is barely holding on. 

I'm pretty sure the problem is NOT economic populism.  I'm pretty sure the problem is culture war, and perceptions of Democratic woke radicalism.  I think what it boils down to is easy to say, almost impossible to do.  Democrats can't enact what they want if they can't elect Senators from Montana or Missouri.  And they won't elect Senators from Montana or Missouri unless or until they convince voters there we want to do things you really want.

 

 

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I donated to Mucarsel-Powell in Florida but that race still seems like the Dems would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win.

 

I contributed multiple times to Tester, Kunce and Allred campaigns.  Montana, Missouri, and Texas.

I don't see how Missouri can equate Kunce with woke radicalism  if they are paying attention. 

Same with Tester and Allred. 

The GOP derailed the Senate border bill.   The GOP candidates are beatable.  Come on Dems!!

 

“Josh Hawley has never had to run for election as the man that he is right now. He’s never had to run as the guy who thinks that in vitro fertilization and contraception or abortion are murder. He’s never had to run after taking away rights of everyday Missourians. He’s never had to run after being exposed for supporting no-fault divorces and thinking people should be trapped in marriages.” 

~Lucas Kunce

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Pete1111 said:

I donated to Mucarsel-Powell in Florida but that race still seems like the Dems would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win.

 

I contributed multiple times to Tester, Kunce and Allred campaigns.  Montana, Missouri, and Texas.

I don't see how Missouri can equate Kunce with woke radicalism  if they are paying attention. 

Same with Tester and Allred. 

The GOP derailed the Senate border bill.   The GOP candidates are beatable.  Come on Dems!!

 

“Josh Hawley has never had to run for election as the man that he is right now. He’s never had to run as the guy who thinks that in vitro fertilization and contraception or abortion are murder. He’s never had to run after taking away rights of everyday Missourians. He’s never had to run after being exposed for supporting no-fault divorces and thinking people should be trapped in marriages.” 

~Lucas Kunce

 

 

I heard this somewhere, sorry I don't remember the source, Hawley is the least popular Senator currently serving in the Senate.  It's a big lift but maybe there's some Cruz factor there to exploit, with having both sides of the aisle hate you.  

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29 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

I heard this somewhere, sorry I don't remember the source, Hawley is the least popular Senator currently serving in the Senate.  It's a big lift but maybe there's some Cruz factor there to exploit, with having both sides of the aisle hate you.  

But its NOT about their peers, its about their constituents, and apparently they have been making bad and wrong choices... Thats how those pussys got their in the first place.

Seeing Hawley fist pumping the insurrection crowd and then running like a the coward he is for his safety when the crowd he encouraged took his cue should seal the deal for his office rejection... and purging the GOP swamp.    But people get used to what they have, and fear what they will get which could make them stick with their BAD choice ? 

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3 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

But its NOT about their peers, its about their constituents, and apparently they have been making bad and wrong choices... Thats how those pussys got their in the first place.

Seeing Hawley fist pumping the insurrection crowd and then running like a the coward he is for his safety when the crowd he encouraged took his cue should seal the deal for his office rejection... and purging the GOP swamp.    But people get used to what they have, and fear what they will get which could make them stick with their BAD choice ? 

There are reasons he's the least popular Senator amongst his constituents currently serving in the Senate. 

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