Is Harris too liberal to win? Ask Obama!

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

From what I've read there is more of a Harris ground game than with the Trump campaign.  

Like he has next to no ground game, is what I have read.   

Quote

Trump’s RNC takeover put the kibosh on the committee’s existing GOTV plans for 2024, including much of its support for candidates hoping to give Republicans control of the U.S. Senate next year.

I haven't read much.  But the snapshot I have read is that there is a huge reliance on digital (geez, doesn't Trump own DJT?) and a belief they can micro-target and mobilize voters that way.

This could be a sleeper factor, as you say.  Pelosi recently said she wasn't much impressed with Biden's political operation.  And she would be a good judge.  But most of what I've read for years is under Biden and the DNC's Jaime Harrison there has been a lot of emphasis on building up grassroots party structures and organizing.  In 2022 that was one theory about why Democrats stopped a red wave.  So now in 2024 there are volunteers at the local level crawling out of the woodwork - for Harris.

Now it looks like rich donors will pay outside groups to run much of Trump's ground game.   

Trump’s Ground Game Is No Longer In Our Hearts

Several articles, including this one, state that it is hard to believe that parachuting in paid canvassers at the end for GOTV is going to be a match for Democratic grassroots work that has been building for years.  We'll see.

[Suckrates]

7 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Beyond the polling numbers, I think enthusiasm and the campaign turn out the vote operations are, so far, the sleeper issue in terms of discussions on the election outcomes. Maybe it's just early for that discussion. From what I've read there is more of a Harris ground game than with the Trump campaign.  

Trump isnt interested in campaigning and poll numbers anymore.   ALL the loyal foot soldiers are, ready and in place, cocked and loaded, so when he loses, He's just gonna take the win and claim it was the biggest WIN Eva.......   Havent we seen this show B4 ?      This time, we better be READY ! 

[RockyRoadTravel]

17 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

You made several very important points.

I forgot about what you said about 2020.  Nice that all those fears about not wanting to go talk to people because of COVID are now a distant memory.  

There were a lot of people who complained about how Democrats basically had one hand tied behind their backs in 2020.  One specific memory is Lauren Underwood, one of my favorite US Reps.  I grew up in the Chicago burbs, which were red as could be when I was a kid.  So the idea that Lauren Underwood could win a US House seat in the Chicago burbs was unthinkable.  First it was a push to get Harold Washington elected Mayor of Chicago, then Obama as President, and only then could you get a Black Democrat in the Chicago burbs.  But she almost lost in 2020, unexpectedly.  One of the political consultants who worked with her (and a lot of other Dems) wrote an essay at the time saying Democrats screwed up across the board by suppressing their own turnout, in effect.  I gave money and followed all the SoCal House races in 2020, when Democrats lost several of the seats we picked up in 2018.  Several of those candidates, if I recall right Harley Rouda in particular, blamed the reversal on the Republicans doing strong turnout and Democrats being timid due to COVID.

Anyway, if that was an explanation for 2020, that does not apply in 2024 as you say.

That said, the Trump polling underweight makes complete logical sense.  If the only people who voted were the most likely voters, Harris would win big.  If the only people who voted are the people least likely to vote, Trump would win in a landslide.  He attracts people who thinks politics sucks.  So of course it makes sense that the people who don't vote in midterms but will vote for him - maybe - are going to be a wild card.

I didn't think of it until reading your post.  But in that more sobering article from Sean Trende he does mention that one problem with his model is he is using results from the Washington primary, which have been very predictive in the past.  But, as he says, things can change between the primary and the general.  This year would be a perfect example.  The primary was August 6th, after the Kamala Effect had started.  But Democratic enthusiasm went from lagging all year to now being off the charts.  At least as of right now, it looks like the big shift that started right about then could underestimate how well Democrats will do in November.   That does depend on how much the campaign can create the energy of an unstoppable movement.

And one expert who agrees with you about North Carolina is Ed Rogers, the Republican political consultant.  He said on Halperin's 2Way talks that he doesn't see Harris winning Georgia, but he worries about North Carolina.  He pointed to how the NC Democratic Guv is wildly popular, and the MAGA Republican Guv candidate is not.

I remembered the third thing that makes me positive about a potential re-defeat of the defeated former President.  (The Georgia and North Carolina point was just a filler because I knew I had three points, but couldn't remember the third one.) 

3.  The "who do you want to see controlling Congress" polling numbers have been trending up for the Democrats, with now a 1.7% lead over the Republicans according to 538.  This, to me, indicates a general positive political environment for the Democrats and gives them more of a home game advantage (let's be a little Walz-ey) for Harris and team. 

[stevenkesslar]

34 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

3.  The "who do you want to see controlling Congress" polling numbers have been trending up for the Democrats, with now a 1.7% lead over the Republicans according to 538.  This, to me, indicates a general positive political environment for the Democrats and gives them more of a home game advantage (let's be a little Walz-ey) for Harris and team. 

And that's the issue:  generic Democrats.

Biden was vastly underperforming both generic Democrats, and almost any actual Democrat running for US Senate in a swing state.

So one explanation of what has happened is Harris is now the generic Democrat.  And the good news is that generic Democrats have a slight polling advantage, as you state.  Whether they are some unnamed Democrat, or Kamala Harris.  The danger is that once she is no longer generic, and is instead the radical San Francisco Biden clone, she may lose some of the romance.  And instead be the unpopular [fill in sexist and racist Trump insult of choice].  That is clearly what MAGA wants to do.

It is interesting.  Even the "normie" Republicans on TV - like Scott Jennings on CNN, or GOP pollsters or consultants on Halperin - are basically saying that all this "joy" shit is just NOT the public mood.  They are literally arguing that maybe voters want pessimism and American decline and insults.  It is really fucking weird.

It can work the other way.  Actual Democrats - named Rosen or Gallego or Casey or Baldwin or even Brown - are doing better than Harris in their states.  So she may have opportunity to go up, as well as down.  I think what has happened so far is the likely suspects - youth, Blacks, Browns - have come back to the generic Democrat.  And some Independents, too.  But she clearly knows she has to close the deal with a lot of people in the middle.  

This is more related to something in another thread, but I'll just add it in here.  The polling thing is scary.   I was playing around on 538 and I looked back at their 2020 final poll averages.  Biden was supposed to win Michigan by 7.9%,  Wisconsin by 8.4 %, Pennsylvania by 4.7 % in 2020.  He was also slightly ahead in North Carolina and Florida.  Of course, he won the first three by much smaller margins, and lost the other two. 

The best explanation I have read is that Trump voters are the most politically alienated and least likely to vote.  So they are usually underweighted in polls.  Allan Lichtman argues that the pollsters have now compensated for that and erred the other way.  Which is why the 2022 red wave never happened, for example.  He is correct that, lately, most Democrats actually do as well or better than projected in polls.  But the other factor is that whatever happened in 2022 or 2023 it could be that there are just Trump voters that come out when Trump is on the ballot.

So I don't think anyone knows.  But the good news is if you go by election results, not polls, it is the Democrats who are actually winning most of the statewide races in most of the swing states.  One reason to think Georgia is the hardest one for Harris is that it is the one swing state that still has very solid statewide Republican control, other than for Rev. Batman and his young sidekick Robin.  😉 

[Suckrates]

36 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

It can work the other way.  Actual Democrats - named Rosen or Gallego or Casey or Baldwin or even Brown - are doing better than Harris in their states.  So she may have opportunity to go up, as well as down.  I think what has happened so far is the likely suspects - youth, Blacks, Browns - have come back to the generic Democrat.  And some Independents, too.  But she clearly knows she has to close the deal with a lot of people in the middle.  

 

Yet someone as incompetent and disgusting as Ted Cruz is still leading his race over Mr Dreamy Collin Alred.   Cruz hates his states and its people, and avoids every chance to help them YET, they wont let him go !       WTF is wrong with people....    This party over country shit is really starting to piss me off......    Republicans are DEAD, people.....all thats left behind is MAGA, so now, you are either MAGA or you need to vote Dem in the 2024 race. 

[stevenkesslar]

4 hours ago, Suckrates said:

Yet someone as incompetent and disgusting as Ted Cruz is still leading his race over Mr Dreamy Collin Alred.   Cruz hates his states and its people, and avoids every chance to help them YET, they wont let him go !       WTF is wrong with people....    This party over country shit is really starting to piss me off......    Republicans are DEAD, people.....all thats left behind is MAGA, so now, you are either MAGA or you need to vote Dem in the 2024 race. 

Call me giddy on Kamala.  But I am still holding out a little bit of hope for Florida.  And I am thinking Senate seat.

This much is true.  Texas has been three things, for sure:  One, a red state.  Two, a red state.  Three, a red state.  So, shockingly, nothing has changed!

Florida is now supposedly a red state.  But that boils down to a few good years, in part when DeSantis was popular because of how he handled a natural disaster.  (Andy Beshear did the same in Kentucky.  It does not mean Kentucky is blue).  It is true that it has been a long time since Florida elected a Democratic Guv.  But most statewide elections for most of the last decade have been close.  And Obama won there twice, albeit over a decade ago.   It's also true the Republicans have run up a huge registered voter advantage.  But voters can, and do, change their minds.

Are Republicans losing the culture wars?

So that is a bunch of anecdotes.  But I think you can make the case that the Republican culture war has peaked and is now becoming a liability.  Abortion is Exhibit A.  But Florida is Exhibit B.   "Ron's Glorious Culture War Presidency" never came to pass.  Why?  BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE FUCKING TIRED OF CULTURE WAR.

So things would have to break perfectly for Harris to create a wave so powerful that it swept through Florida and swept out Rick Scott.  But I don't think that is impossible.

Texas is just a completely different thing.  Cruz is a nut.  But he will be a much harder nut to crack.

[RockyRoadTravel]

6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

And that's the issue:  generic Democrats.

This is more related to something in another thread, but I'll just add it in here.  The polling thing is scary.   I was playing around on 538 and I looked back at their 2020 final poll averages.  Biden was supposed to win Michigan by 7.9%,  Wisconsin by 8.4 %, Pennsylvania by 4.7 % in 2020.  He was also slightly ahead in North Carolina and Florida.  Of course, he won the first three by much smaller margins, and lost the other two. 

The best explanation I have read is that Trump voters are the most politically alienated and least likely to vote.  So they are usually underweighted in polls.  Allan Lichtman argues that the pollsters have now compensated for that and erred the other way.  Which is why the 2022 red wave never happened, for example.  He is correct that, lately, most Democrats actually do as well or better than projected in polls.  But the other factor is that whatever happened in 2022 or 2023 it could be that there are just Trump voters that come out when Trump is on the ballot.

So I don't think anyone knows.  But the good news is if you go by election results, not polls, it is the Democrats who are actually winning most of the statewide races in most of the swing states.  One reason to think Georgia is the hardest one for Harris is that it is the one swing state that still has very solid statewide Republican control, other than for Rev. Batman and his young sidekick Robin.  😉 

I think some of the difference from poll numbers and eventual election results is from the Democrats not working the vote and having a pandemic (non) turn out strategy (as I said before). 

I don't think Trump voters have the same embarrassed about talking to pollsters more than they did in 2016, and polls are likely more accurate now. Also, there are more right-wing pollsters in the mix this election cycle - look at the difference between 538 and Real Clear Politics polling averages.  The right leaning Rasmussen refused to clarify their methodology to 538, so 538 dropped them.  

If you look back at the 538 predictions for 2020, they had North Carolina going to Biden, before Georgia would. I think it's the same this year. 

[EmmetK]

[RockyRoadTravel]

41 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Is that going to be the line of group think in the MAGA echo chamber?  Thank you for keeping us up to date.  Appreciated. 

[Suckrates]

3 hours ago, EmmetK said:

As usual, ALL false claims by the King of Liars.....  You all need to educate yourselves on the REAL state of the economy NOW   !     The only going back you guys are doing is "going back to sleep".....