Biden endorses Harris

[vinapu]

4 hours ago, Suckrates said:

 convicted Felon

that's irrelevant, world's  high  chairs are and always were occupied by people who did their terms in prisons, convicted or not, justly or on trumped -up charges. 

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

 I have tons of friend who are voting for him and love him and adore him. 

Plainly,  you are in wrong crowd

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

The real problem IS that they are dangerous and we cant ignore them.   The bigger the cult becomes, the bigger the problem is. 

+1

exactly, cult is the word and whether we like him or not , need to credit him for creating one. Logic is put aside and emotions are in charge, it's why is hard to comprehend  his phenomena 

[stevenkesslar]

7 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

But, I have tons of friend who are voting for him [Trump] and love him and adore him. I don't get it. It is incomprehensible to me.

I get it. 

What's hurting both Biden and Harris now, and will keep hurting them, is that people have had a rough time the last four years.  And it is about gas prices, grocery prices, the cost of homes.  I think especially for voters who are younger, and lower income, and not White, those have been issues.  Mostly because the less White you are and the less old you are the more likely you are lower income and therefore more vulnerable.  That explains a lot of why Biden has been hurting with Hispanics, Blacks, and young voters.  I'm hoping Kamala can pull them back.  On economic stuff a relatively progressive message works.  Raise taxes on corporations and billionaires.  Use it to lower the cost of insulin and health care.  That works. 

The other thing that is the most bitter pill for progressives like me is a lot of working class voters are fairly culturally conservative.  Which does not mean they oppose same sex marriage.  It means they are worried about immigration, crime, and chaos.

For those of you who are political whores like me, Mark Halperin has this group chat show daily where he brings in this amazingly bipartisan group of political hacks.  Halperin co-wrote Game Change and was the first one out publicly last Friday on saying Biden would resign, as early as Sunday.  He was right.  His sources are amazing.  So that's his 30 minute group chat today, that includes some of the top political consultants past and present in America.  It is a gold mine.

I'll summarize some comments, particularly leaning to what the guy who ran W.'s 2004 campaign says.  Kamala has to moderate, and the left has to let her do it.  I like the main idea being "strength and stability".  You get the first with Trump, which is why he was winning.  Biden was seen as weak, which is why he was losing.  Kamala needs to balance both. 

Just visually, Harris and Mark Kelly standing next to each other would do the trick.  Probably more than a loud mouthed (Jew, Gay, or woman, even though I love hearing Pete and Josh and Gretchen go after Trump).  And Kamala should take on her party a little and surprise everyone.  She has the receipts for being tough on crime.  We had a 30 % murder spike in 2020 under Trump.  We had a 13 % drop in murder and violent crime in 2023 thanks to Biden/Harris.  She needs to talk about that.  With Trump you get strength and chaos and threats to democracy.  With me you get strength and the rule of law.  I'll be tough on crime.  Kelly has the receipts for being tough - and bipartisan - on the border.  That's how they win, I think.

 

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

The other thing that is the most bitter pill for progressives like me is a lot of working class voters are fairly culturally conservative.    It means they are worried about immigration, crime, and chaos.

 

and often they are first or second generation of immigrants themselves

[stevenkesslar]

27 minutes ago, vinapu said:

and often they are first or second generation of immigrants themselves

Yes!  And, it ties directly to things like minimum wage.  

The old Republican thing was "We like immigration because we can get cheap labor (often not White) in the US.  And we like outsourcing because we can get cheap labor by shipping factories overseas." So we now know that didn't work out well for many Americans.  At core, it's about people who want to work being able to get a decent wage and move up the ladder.  That's the American Dream everyone wants.

(Truth in advertising.  I think global capitalism got rid of poverty and hunger for something like 1 billion people, especially in Asia.  So let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater.)

The political malpractice to me is that Trump somehow got away with blaming what were mostly Republican policies, that really took root when W. was President from 2001 to 2009, on Hillary Clinton and Democrats.   We went from over 17 million factory jobs in America in January 2001 to 12.5 million in January 2009. We have 13 million today.  How do you blame that on Bill or Hillary Clinton, or Barack Obama or Joe Biden?  That was what Republicans did on their watch.

But the concern is real, and broadly shared.  Whether it's some Black guy whose ancestors were slaves or some Hispanic guy whose parents came from Mexico, they don't like the idea of chaos and low wages.  And they are for higher minimum wages and for higher taxes on corporations and rich people.

The line that resonates really well from what I read is, "Yes.  My parents were immigrants.  But they got in line.  They did it the legal way."  Whether that is actually true or not is irrelevant.  It is how people feel.  And the polls say these moderate swing voters are NOT against immigration, and think some extreme program to deport up to 825,000 innocent undocumented children is going too far.  If Democrats want to win they have to meet these voters where they are at.

[fedssocr]

19 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

This is like an abundance of riches all of a sudden. 

I'm used to two things.  First, feeling zero excitement about Biden, even though I feel like I should feel excited.  Second, feeling like I am suffering from Democratic autism.  Maybe this is cruel to Joe Biden, who I voted for and love.  But I have watched so many interviews lately where I feel like, "Can't ............ you ...................... please ............................ just ............................. finish .................................... the .....................................fucking ......................................sentence."

So the idea of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg running around and dropping clever and witty shit bombs all over the Felon And His Ass Licker is thrilling. Like I want a month of THAT just to catch up from this drought that we have been in, where I had to listen to 90 minutes of Trump's lying ass and then watch JD Vance go lick it!.

I had never actually heard Josh Shapiro, so I went to YouTube to find Josh.  And this felt just the same.  Please put him on a stage and just let this man go off on Trump. 

He actually kind of reminds me of Kamala.  He's got this sense of joy and exuberance.  And he winds it up but you know this sharp verbal shit bomb is coming.  And it does.  

This is such a relief.  Any of these White guy Guvs, or Kelly, or Whitmer, would be good.  By all accounts I've heard Mark Kelly is the boring national hero type.  GI Joe without the hair, and someone people deeply respect.  So maybe he looks good just standing strong and silent next to Kamala. Rather than the loud mouthed Gay from DC or the loud mouthed Jew from Pennsylvania of the loud mouthed woman from Michigan.    I am just happy to be able to hear what needs to be said.     Please, speak!   Every .................... fucking ................. day!

Shapiro was Attorney General of PA just as Harris was AG of California. So that might inform somewhat their similarity in style and substance.

[stevenkesslar]

52 minutes ago, fedssocr said:

Shapiro was Attorney General of PA just as Harris was AG of California. So that might inform somewhat their similarity in style and substance.

It's interesting, and perhaps not a coincidence.  Whitmer already took herself out, and will remain as a campaign co-Chair.  So I would say there is already a short list of Tough White Guys.  And three of them - Shapiro, Cooper, and Beshear - have all been Attorney Generals.  So they are all "rule of law" guys.  A fourth, Mark Kelly, was a slacker.  He was only a Captain in the Navy and an astronaut  😉  Pete was in the military, too.  So he qualifies as a tough White guy.  (Chasten says he's a sweetheart in private, of course.)

Again, it feels like the dam has broken and the words and the passion are now flowing freely.  In 19 minutes Kamala said way more than Trump in 93 minutes about things that people actually care about.  She just needs to brush that up and she has a much better, and shorter, and more inspiring acceptance speech already.

There is a riff in there about "I know Donald Trump's type" that aces the "Felon versus Prosecutor" theme.  But the part that means the most, if Democrats get it right, is this part:

Quote

In this election we know we each face a question about what kind of country we want to live in.  A country of freedom, compassion, and rule of law.  Or a country of chaos, fear, and hate."

Going back to what W.'s 2004 campaign manager said, that you have to start with the theory of the case, I think that's it right there.  Harris has it already.  W's guy used the phrase "strength and stability".  I think "rule of law versus chaos" gets to the same thing.  So whether it is a former AG like Shapiro or Cooper or Beshear, or a GI Joe like Kelly or Buttigieg, I think they are going to be very grounded in this whole riff about the rule of law, and stability, versus the chaos of Trump.

Kamala is right.  When we fight, we win.

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

  And they are for higher minimum wages and for higher taxes on corporations and rich people.

 

good luck with extracting that from their idol Trump

[stevenkesslar]

58 minutes ago, vinapu said:

good luck with extracting that from their idol Trump

The Faux Populism of Conservatives for Higher Corporate Tax

Quote

Two nights ago at the National Conservatism Conference, Senator Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) told the audience that Trump’s 2017 cut of the corporate income-tax rate to 21 percent is at the top of the list of economic policy mistakes. I am not sure how the people there responded to the claim, but American Compass’s Oren Cass applauded it.

This is at least somewhat serious.  Especially if you buy the idea that Senators like JD Vance, and Josh Hawley, and Tom Cotton, among others, are at the leading edge of this new conservative workers' populism.  In theory, that actually does involve embracing labor unions and raising taxes on corporations.  Trump sure wants to wear JD Vance as a badge of honor, since he is a liar and cynic and rapist.  In this instance, he is perfectly happy to rape some ideas from "pro-worker" policy wonks like Oren Cass. That said, I think JD will be licking Trump's ass when it comes to those lower corporate tax rates.

Cass was involved in Project 2025, which is an intellectual blueprint for Trump 2.0.  And Project 2025 proposes further lowering corporate taxes from 21 % to 18 %, because corporate tax is "the most damaging tax in the US tax system".  Trump himself has said he wants to lower it to 20 %.  Yet somehow Cass does think that he's helping to steer the Republican ship to some future of conservative workers' populism.

I think Democrats somehow have to figure out how to get at least 50 votes in the US Senate if they don't want this future.  And 52 Senators if you figure that you'll have a few Democrats like Manchin and Sinema who are fully paid for by corporate America.  Then again, and I'm serious, there could be a future in which a President Harris gets a few Republicans like Josh Hawley to go along with higher corporate taxes in a deal for something else, like spending cuts.

For now, she needs to, and will, hammer the shit out of Trump for wanting to extend and further lower his corporate tax cuts.  Trump is one of the few Presidents who left office with fewer factory jobs than he started with.  Even before COVID, from January 2019 to January 2020, the US LOST about 40,000 factory jobs in one year.  So much for how those corporate tax cuts were supposed to help workers by creating a renaissance of manufacturing.

 

[stevenkesslar]

[reader]

I think the motives people have for becoming Trumpsters have little to do with affection for the man himself. There's a minority group of wealthy individuals who are interested solely in a candidate who may be good for their business interests. The second and most dominant group are white, working class Americans who seek instant inclusion in a political movement that satisfies their need for being among like-minded individuals. Acceptance is instantaneous and gives their life renewed purpose.

It's a waste of time for Democrats to try to present candidates that might attract Trumpsters. The Dems need first to excite their base. Without the votes of the base it's impossible for them to win. They also should seek the  dwindling number of undecided voters but the emphasis has to be on the bread and butter democrats. They represent the the population most likely to go to the polls.

If early indicators are correct--and I believe they are--Kamala Harris is the best person to do it. I trust her to select a running mate that will boost her party's appeal.

[Keithambrose]

4 hours ago, reader said:

I think the motives people have for becoming Trumpsters have little to do with affection for the man himself. There's a minority group of wealthy individuals who are interested solely in a candidate who may be good for their business interests. The second and most dominant group are white, working class Americans who seek instant inclusion in a political movement that satisfies their need for being among like-minded individuals. Acceptance is instantaneous and gives their life renewed purpose.

It's a waste of time for Democrats to try to present candidates that might attract Trumpsters. The Dems need first to excite their base. Without the votes of the base it's impossible for them to win. They also should seek the  dwindling number of undecided voters but the emphasis has to be on the bread and butter democrats. They represent the the population most likely to go to the polls.

If early indicators are correct--and I believe they are--Kamala Harris is the best person to do it. I trust her to select a running mate that will boost her party's appeal.

Ii think these are all good points, but I think the 'average American' is still biased against a black, and a woman. Unsurprisingly,  Musk has endorsed Trump, in a gesture of self interest.

[reader]

1 hour ago, Keithambrose said:

Ii think these are all good points, but I think the 'average American' is still biased against a black, and a woman. Unsurprisingly,  Musk has endorsed Trump, in a gesture of self interest.

I truly don't know how I'd go about finding an "average" American today. Although there's some degree of racial prejudice in all societies worldwide, I think you'd only find remnants of it in some pockets of the old Confederate states.

Since there are more women than men living in the US today, it would be difficult to find a bias against women in the 'average" American. I know a lot of people and have never detected such a bias.

[Mavica]

7 minutes ago, reader said:

Since there are more women than men living in the US today, it would be difficult to find a bias against women in the 'average" American. I know a lot of people and have never detected such a bias.

Women in the USA vote in greater numbers than Men do.

[floridarob]

23 hours ago, vinapu said:

Plainly,  you are in wrong crowd

Easy explanation....He's originally from the south 😉

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, Keithambrose said:

Musk has endorsed Trump, in a gesture of self interest.

proof that one can be business genius and still idiot

[vinapu]

45 minutes ago, floridarob said:

Easy explanation....He's originally from the south 😉

Oh, the same like Blanche from 'Golden Girls'

[floridarob]

18 minutes ago, vinapu said:

Oh, the same like Blanche from 'Golden Girls'

you have obviously met him 😛

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, floridarob said:

you have obviously met him 😛

no, but neither I met Blanche

[Latbear4blk]

Her speech in Wisconsin was great. The Trumpards must be worried.

[vinapu]

22 minutes ago, Latbear4blk said:

 The Trumpards must be worried.

I bet they are and they should. Now they have their pick who is old, possibly fragile , with doubts sown of how he will perform at end if his demanding term when he will be even older. 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, vinapu said:

I bet they are and they should. Now they have their pick who is old, possibly fragile , with doubts sown of how he will perform at end if his demanding term when he will be even older. 

I have to say, for once I agree with Trump and his hysterical warnings.  

I think he is going to get eaten alive.  😲

 

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

I think he is going to get eaten alive.  😲

 

not a healthy diet

[stevenkesslar]

10 hours ago, Latbear4blk said:

The Trumpards must be worried.

I'm just going to keep posting long and boring content that I find fascinating.

Of the two new polls out that were taken only after the Harris candidacy emerged, Harris is +2 in Reuters and Trump is +1 in NPR.  It will take weeks for this to stabilize.  But the theory that Biden was a drag on the overall Democratic field seems to be initially proving to be true. The generic Congressional vote is R +0.5 so it may be that Harris ends up about where any Democrat that is not old and feeble looking would be.  Meaning about tied as of now.

10 hours ago, Latbear4blk said:

Her speech in Wisconsin was great.

So was Josh. This is Shapiro at a press event today. He would be great.  I love it how he literally rolls up his sleeves.

But I'm sold on Mark Kelly.  I posted this essay already in the politics session.  John Lawrence, who served for years as Nancy Pelosi's Chief of Staff, posted this on his blog.  He has been close friends with Gabby Giffords and says he got close to Kelly in his astronaut days and has stayed close. It's a great argument.

The Case for Kelly

Finally, this YouTube link is to one of two podcasts Mark Halperin did today.  I'm posting it because there is a really good conversation between former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and several others from 23:00 to 45:00 that is thoughtful to watch if you want to know how this can all go very bad for Democrats.

Sometimes when I watch or read Gingrich I think, "Can he really be that far out there, or is he just saying this for Fox News listeners?"  But this suggests he's really that far out there.  He thinks this sets Democrats up for a Nixon-McGovern debacle.  And that once Trump is done with the "San Francisco radical" middle America will decide, to quote, "She is not one of us."  I don't think there was an explicit racial or gender reference even implied by that.  But it oozes through, anyway.  And it is a good question.  What if Kansas (or Michigan) decides this San Francisco Democrat with the weird name is not one of us?

Of course, I don't think Gingrich meant this, but you could also envision this is more like the post-Watergate version of Nixon.  Where America decided the guy was a crook and had to go.

Either way, listening to Gingrich scared the living shit out of me.  And reinforced my feelings that a White guy like Kelly, whose parents were both cops and who exudes the idea of compromise with Republicans, would be a wise choice.  Both to campaign and to govern.  But Shapiro or Cooper or Beshear also all exude "rule of law" and reinforce the California "Kamala The Cop" version of Harris I think we will be learning about soon.

God does this feel better than a week ago!