Members stevenkesslar Posted July 23 Members Posted July 23 5 hours ago, EmmetK said: Even better news: Trump approval rating: 45%. Harris approval rating 39%. Trump +6 One of the things I like about @EmmetK is that, since he has no interest in trying to be objective or balanced about facts, he challenges me to think about my facts before I post. So this thing about favorable ratings is quite interesting. And maybe significant given how divided we are, and how close the race is. Check out the difference in the disapproval ratings between Biden, Trump, and Harris. Trump's disapproval, as always, can't really get below 53 % disapproval consistently. Kamala's has been more fluid over the past four years, and since May has been closer to 50 %. That's got to be good news for Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/ I think that chart on Kamala Harris's favorability was never up on 538 before, since she was not the nominee. But there is a very clear break in trends in 2024 between her and Biden. It would be clearest visually if I could overlay the three charts. But you can see it looking at each one individually. Until 2023, the Biden and Harris charts were mostly tracking together, in terms of what direction they were going in. Both had a relatively brief period of net approval before their approval ratings tanked in Summer 2021. Since then both have been underwater. In 2023, both saw their approval ratings decline further. Meanwhile, in 2023 Biden's disapproval rating went slightly up, while Harris's disapproval rating went sideways. In 2024, the two have diverged. Biden's disapproval ratings continued to increase, to a recent all time high of 57 %. Meanwhile, his approval rating also kept declining, to a recent new low of 37 %. Kamala's did the opposite in 2024. Her approval rating increased slightly, and for the last month or so was close to cracking 40 % again. Meanwhile, her disapproval rating has declined slightly, and a few times recently fell just below 50 %. That still means net disapproval. But the trend throughout 2024 is that her numbers are getting gradually better, whereas Biden's have been getting gradually worse. Meanwhile, Trump is now in between the two of them on disapproval. He's at 53.7 % disapproval right now, which is 2.3 % worse than Kamala. That said, his approval rating is slightly better than Kamala's. Trump's lowest disapproval was just around 52 % around February. That makes sense. It was right after he put DeSantis and the primary to bed. But before he became a convicted felon. At no point has his disapproval rating ever fallen below 50 %. So this floor of a 52-53 % disapproval rating, which never goes lower, matches pretty tightly with the fact that he can never get much above 47 % of the vote - either in poll averages, or in two national Presidential elections. My point is that this may be a measure of Biden's specific and unique problems with his age. Back in 2023 I kept thinking as inflation came down and unemployment was at 50 year lows and the stock market hit new highs, Biden's approval ratings would go up. They didn't. And now, with hindsight, it seems obvious that all that stuff people were saying about his age is probably the reason why. Meanwhile, Kamala's disapproval rating actually did go down. Maybe it's a reflection of overall feelings about the Administration. Or it could be that she really hit her stride as the leader on abortion and women's rights. Whatever the reason, even a small difference like 2.3 % in disapproval ratings could have a huge impact on who wins. As long as both candidates have disapproval over 50 %, by definition there have to be "double haters" who disapprove of both, but have to vote for one - if they vote at all. Once Kamala's disapproval rating is below 50 %, that's no longer true. She could get to 50 % of the vote based on people who do approve of her, and people who don't really feel one way or the other, but do disapprove of Trump. Favorability ratings are seen as much stickier than horserace polls. And also more impactful on how people actually vote. It does seem like Trump is stuck with the fact that something like 53 % of voters will always disapprove of him. It is good news that Kamala has been much closer to 50 % disapproval for much of 2024, and at least has the opportunity to further lower her disapproval rating in the next month. Especially now that it's a guarantee that the Chicago DNC will be a unified love fest for Kamala Harris. KeepItReal and Bingo T Dog 1 1 Quote
