Members stevenkesslar Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 Some interesting factoids. Way too early to tell what polls will say about Trump v. Harris once they poll her as the prospective POTUS candidate. But RCP now has aggregated all the horse race polls up to today. And Trump is leading Harris by 1.7 points, compared to 3 points ahead of Biden. That is certainly not bad news for Harris. I can't recall any other Presidential election where we knew in July a candidate would win because they were 1.7 points ahead. And we may know by the end of August whether Kamala will win. Here's the short version of Lichtman's take on this: If you want the longer version here is a one hour special podcast by Lichtman from tonight on YouTube. Now that it is a fait accompli, Lichtman has toned down his rhetoric about how forcing Biden out would be a self-inflicted disaster. What he is focusing on now is that Democrats can avoid defeat by quickly unifying around Harris. Which, I think, is a fait accompli as well. I think there are now something like like 3 or maybe 4 state delegations that have already pledged all their delegates to Kamala at the DNC. What I love about Lichtman is that his rules not only work. They also make common sense, if you want to have a flattering view of democracy. It makes common sense that swing voters will be more attracted to unity and purpose than to chaos and division. I think Democrats know this is not 1968. And the war is not in our party. The war is to beat Trump. As far as the keys go, as Lichtman says in his video Democrats move from being down 2 keys to being down 3. The incumbency key is lost. Assuming Democrats can unify around Harris, and avoid chaos, that means 3 of his 4 undetermined keys would need to fall to predict Democratic defeat after the DNC. Because he does plan to make a prediction after the DNC in August. It sounds like he leans toward two more keys falling (the foreign policy keys) and the other two not falling (third party, social disorder). So if that's 5 keys against Kamala, she wins. It does underscore how important it is that Democrats now have to unify and get this right. The main thing about Lichtman's system is it's very simple: 5 or fewer keys against you, incumbent wins. 6 or more against you, the incumbent party loses. It doesn't matter which keys. That said, I was curious. If I counted it right, there have been 5 elections since The Civil War where the incumbent party ran a candidate who was NOT the incumbent, and who only emerged after a big party food fight. 4 of those 5 lost. There were three examples where the incumbent party ran a candidate who was NOT the incumbent, and who never went through a party food fight. 2 of those 3 won. The three times an incumbent party ran someone who was not an incumbent but was from the same party and who the party was unified around were Bush in 1988 (after Reagan), Hoover in 1928 (after Coolidge) and Gore in 2000 (after Clinton). So that was 2 out of 3 wins. And Lichtman would argue that Gore won, but the election was stolen from him. So this hardly looks like a death sentence for Kamala. The five examples where a party in power ran a non-incumbent after a big party fight were Clinton in 2016, Humphrey in 1968, Stevenson in 1952, Blaine in 1884, and Hayes in 1876. Hayes actually won. So that is 4 out of 5 losers. Or 4 out of 4 losers since 1900, as Lichtman said in the video above. So this idea of welcoming chaos at the DNC that a lot of media talking heads invite, because it would be fun for them, is not a good idea if the goal is to beat Trump. Biden staying on as POTUS raises some interesting possibilities. The thing Lichtman keeps mentioning as a game changer that could turn one or both of his foreign policy keys in Democrats' favor is something like a ceasefire in Gaza with the release of hostages. In theory, Biden is now useless, because he is a lame duck. No one has any reason to listen to him. But if Harris were suddenly tied with Trump in the polls, that would make a difference.. Like if Bibi thought he can't just wait for Trump to save his ass. And if Harris does win, I actually like the idea of Joe sticking around in 2025 as a sort of war ambassador on Ukraine and Israel. He has expertise and relationships on foreign policy that are really unmatched with any living American. And it addresses the fact that he is not demented. He's just old. Biden's role still may not be completely done when Harris wins. I would love to stick a bomb up Bibi's ass and Putin's ass by forcing them to still have to deal with Biden as an elder statesman in 2025, under President Harris. Quote
Members lookin Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 3 hours ago, Stable Genius said: Biden just cemented his place as one of the very best presidents of all time. I can imagine how difficult this was but I applaud his courage and integrity. Thank you! In a recent survey conducted by the Presidential Greatness Project, two hundred scholars from multiple disciplines ranked Joe Biden as our fourteenth best President, a couple spots below Bill Clinton and a couple spots ahead of Ronald Reagan. They ranked Abraham Lincoln first and Donald Trump dead last. Isn't it strange that the party that brought us our greatest President of all time is now convinced it can bring back our worst? Of course two hundred Presidential scholars won't hold a candle to the combined wisdom of today's Republican strategists, so it was no doubt silly of me to even raise the question. I'll show myself out. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 Biden dropping out of the race, and Cackles or any other nominee taking his place, has taken a wrecking ball to Trumps campaign of division, hate and deceit, which focused primarily on Bidens age. Now, TRUMP is the OLDEST candidate, and the Dems are refreshed and raring to go. Trumps House of Cards has fallen. Trump insult writers are scrambling to develop a new set of slurs and insults for whomever the new opponent is, BUT if it Cackles, Trump had better get out of the race NOW There is a groudswell of support and money rolling in for HER.....and you cannot underestimate the power of the BLACK community.... Its sad Biden didnt make his decision sooner, to give a new campaign the TIME it needs to build and attach...but if the last 24 hrs is any indication, TRUMP IS FUCKED. I doubt Trump will debate any candidate the Dems pick, since he was only counting on beating up on a frail and disoriented Biden..... not a pit bull Prosecutor or popular state Governor. Campaign heads better start earning their money because now they have a tough job . Now Trump is not the younger of 2 OLD men, he IS the Old man, crazy, incoherent, and his material is STALE. His rallys dont offer any new thoughts just his same old vaudeville schtick..... And then theres P2025, which will be put front and center by the Dems.... If Americans didnt know about it before, THEY WILL NOW.... Stable Genius 1 Quote
EmmetK Posted July 22 Posted July 22 14 hours ago, Suckrates said: It is racist to admire Mammy, Weezy, and Tootie? lol. These were proud, talented black women who brought joy and pleasure to their American audience. Not some DEI hire who giggles at funerals. TRUMP/VANCE MAGA Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 8 minutes ago, EmmetK said: It is racist to admire Mammy, Weezy, and Tootie? lol. These were proud, talented black women who brought joy and pleasure to their American audience. Not some DEI hire who giggles at funerals. You're NOT fooling anyone. You meant the comment to be RACIST, and we took it that way.... It was just another of your WWTD moments.. (What would Trump do ?) And you confirmed your Racism with with response. OWN IT man...... Quote
EmmetK Posted July 22 Posted July 22 4 minutes ago, Suckrates said: You're NOT fooling anyone. You meant the comment to be RACIST, and we took it that way.... It was just another of your WWTD moments.. (What would Trump do ?) And you confirmed your Racism with with response. OWN IT man...... YOU took it that way, because in your mind any criticism of a black person MUST be racist. You see the world in terms of race, gender, etc. In your bizarro universe where up is down and left is right, one cannot criticize a black person, much less a black person, unless they have a different worldview than you like Clarence Thomas and Tim Scott. YOU, SIR ARE THE RACIST! TRUMP/VANCE 2024 MAGA Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 Just now, EmmetK said: YOU took it that way, because in your mind any criticism of a black person MUST be racist. You see the world in terms of race, gender, etc. In your bizarro universe where up is down and left is right, one cannot criticize a black person, much less a black person, unless they have a different worldview than you like Clarence Thomas and Tim Scott. YOU, SIR ARE THE RACIST! ROFL. Anyone on here that isnt RACIST took it that way, because that was what you meant it to be. It is consistent with all the other racist comments you have made in your tenure here. Stop gaslighting, Stop backpeddling. Stand up proud and declare YOU are a Racist, and embrace your tribe. Quote
EmmetK Posted July 22 Posted July 22 14 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: Kamala Harris did not cover up the fact that Joe Biden is old. LOL. Nobody said Kamala covered up the fact that Dementia Joe is old. IT IS A FACT that Vice President Kamala covered up the fact that Dementia Joe was a feeble, senile, incoherent old man. For years, the White House staff, the fake news media, and Biden associates INCLUDING the cackling one lied about Dementia Joe's mental acuity. For years, they tried to hide it from the American public. They severely limited his press conferences, rarely, if ever, allowing him to speak without a script or the Presidential teleprompter Dementia Joe and Cackles met in the White House on a weekly basis. Unless she is a total idiot, SHE KNEW he was losing his cognitive abilities. Yet she lied. She lied. She lied. She lied. She lied again and again and again. For years, she said that Biden is "very bold and vibrant" and is "tireless in terms of working". Cackles claimed Biden "is gonna be fine," and said he "is in good shape, in good health" Here is Vice President Cackles on the George Slopadopolus Sunday show on July 7th, 2 weeks ago LYING again to the American public. TRUMP/VANCE 2024 MAGA RockyRoadTravel 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 "What do you mean that now I am the OLDEST candidate ?" stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 2 minutes ago, EmmetK said: LOL. Nobody said Kamala covered up the fact that Dementia Joe is old. IT IS A FACT that Vice President Kamala covered up the fact that Dementia Joe was a feeble, senile, incoherent old man. For years, the White House staff, the fake news media, and Biden associates INCLUDING the cackling one lied about Dementia Joe's mental acuity. For years, they tried to hide it from the American public. They severely limited his press conferences, rarely, if ever, allowing him to speak without a script or the Presidential teleprompter Dementia Joe and Cackles met in the White House on a weekly basis. Unless she is a total idiot, SHE KNEW he was losing his cognitive abilities. Yet she lied. She lied. She lied. She lied. She lied again and again and again. For years, she said that Biden is "very bold and vibrant" and is "tireless in terms of working". Cackles claimed Biden "is gonna be fine," and said he "is in good shape, in good health" Once again I suggest you look up All the cover ups Trump is guilty of, Covid, Ukraine, Hush Money, Tax Fraud, Insurrection etc etc etc...... Rich that you dont mention any of those, as if they dont exist. Oh I forgot, you belong to the party of "white washing", erasing all your dirty shit so noone talks about it.... Sorry, noone is buying your bullshit anymore. We know you all too well...... And now you are hitting back on Kamala because YOU ARE SCARED..... You may have to put those gold sneakers and Bible on EBAY ? As they say, "you and Trump are DUNZO" Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 5 hours ago, EmmetK said: IT IS A FACT that Vice President Kamala covered up the fact that Dementia Joe was a feeble, senile, incoherent old man. You must be pretty slow. Have you checked yourself for cognitive decline? Because most people figured out that Biden was old on their own. Maybe you need glasses or a hearing aid? When is the lying raping felon going to step aside? 71 % of Americans wanted Biden to step aside because he is too old to serve another four years. He has. 57 % of Americans wanted Trump to step aside because he is too crooked to serve another four years. He has not. When is Trump going to step aside? That is what the majority of Americans want. Or are you saying Kamala will have to prosecute his lying raping criminal ass? Majority of Americans think both Biden and Trump are too old to serve second terms There are polls that say BOTH that Trump is too old to serve four more years, and too crooked to serve for more years. You can't cover THAT up. When is Trump going to listen to voters and step aside for the good of the nation? Quote
Members lookin Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 Personally, I hope Democrats don't pick up the 'too old' cudgel and use it against Trump. It was misguided when used against Biden and I think it's misguided if used against Trump. Not necessary either. Trump's got a lot more wrong with him than the number of candles on his birthday cake. 🎂 Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted July 22 Posted July 22 5 minutes ago, lookin said: Personally, I hope Democrats don't pick up the 'too old' cudgel and use it against Trump. It was misguided when used against Biden and I think it's misguided if used against Trump. Not necessary either. Trump's got a lot more wrong with him than the number of candles on his birthday cake. 🎂 The difference is that Biden has showed he's governed with complete competence over the last four years, and Trump has mentally declined so much that even FOX is afraid to televise his word salad rallies anymore. Sharks and getting electrocuted by an electric boat come to mind about Trump's ravings. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 17 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said: The difference is that Biden has showed he's governed with complete competence over the last four years, and Trump has mentally declined so much that even FOX is afraid to televise his word salad rallies anymore. Sharks and getting electrocuted by an electric boat come to mind about Trump's ravings. Quote
Members lookin Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 17 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said: The difference is that Biden has showed he's governed with complete competence over the last four years, and Trump has mentally declined so much that even FOX is afraid to televise his word salad rallies anymore. Sharks and getting electrocuted by an electric boat come to mind about Trump's ravings. Totally agree about Biden's governing ability and I've never related it to how old he was. Also totally agree about Trump's governing inability. But he was pumping mud four years ago too. And eight years ago. Pick an age and I'll show you a misfire. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 1 hour ago, lookin said: Personally, I hope Democrats don't pick up the 'too old' cudgel and use it against Trump. It was misguided when used against Biden and I think it's misguided if used against Trump. Not necessary either. Trump's got a lot more wrong with him than the number of candles on his birthday cake. 🎂 I posted this on the thread on Biden in the general beer garden, but I will post it here too. This is Mark Halperin's 30 minute daily morning meeting. It's like cat nip for political whores. Halperin put his ass on the line on Friday going public about how Biden would resign as early as Sunday. Immediately he was accused of pushing "fake news". He now looks like the guy who is either the smartest in the room, or at least has the best sources. And he puts some of these people on camera and lets them speak their wisdom and experience. In that video there's a Republican described as very anti-Democrat who would love to see Kamala mocked, according to Halperin. The guy's point is that if all Kamala does is rehash "Orange Man Bad" and "sexist", it is a tired drone that people heard and rejected in 2016. I think he is right. That said, what has changed since 2016 is Trump is a convicted felon and rapist. 2 in 3 Americans think he has committed serious crimes like trying to overthrow a fair and free election. So we are about to learn how good a prosecutor is, I guess. But I think a lot of this is better left unsaid. The attacks on Biden worked mainly because voters could see him age with their own eyes. So I think it's the same here. It's probably true that when Trump is on a stage with her, he's losing. Even before he opens his mouth. lookin 1 Quote
EmmetK Posted July 22 Posted July 22 Harris Poll: TRUMP 50% Harris 41%. Trump +9 Harris Poll out today, conducted over the weekend: Trump 50%, Harris 41%, undecided 9% (p.33) Trump +9 When undecided were forced to choose: Trump vs Harris: Trump 53%, Harris 47% (p.35) Trump +6 Even better news: Trump approval rating: 45%. Harris approval rating 39%. Trump +6 https://www.harrisx.com/content/hop-july-19-21-2024 You guys keep forgetting that Cackles was the first democrat candidate to drop out of the primary race in 2020. She dropped out before the California primary. She was polling at 1%. There is a reason she was polling at 1%. Trump will defeat Harris by an even bigger margin than he would have beaten Dementia Joe Trump/Vance 2024 MAGA Quote
vinapu Posted July 22 Posted July 22 19 minutes ago, EmmetK said: Trump will defeat Harris by an even bigger margin than he would have beaten Dementia Joe will it be good or bad? Quote
Bingo T Dog Posted July 22 Posted July 22 55 minutes ago, EmmetK said: Harris Poll: TRUMP 50% Harris 41%. Trump +9 Harris Poll out today, conducted over the weekend: Trump 50%, Harris 41%, undecided 9% (p.33) Trump +9 When undecided were forced to choose: Trump vs Harris: Trump 53%, Harris 47% (p.35) Trump +6 Even better news: Trump approval rating: 45%. Harris approval rating 39%. Trump +6 https://www.harrisx.com/content/hop-july-19-21-2024 You guys keep forgetting that Cackles was the first democrat candidate to drop out of the primary race in 2020. She dropped out before the California primary. She was polling at 1%. There is a reason she was polling at 1%. Trump will defeat Harris by an even bigger margin than he would have beaten Dementia Joe Trump/Vance 2024 MAGA Shhhhh, grandpa is sleeping. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 22 Members Posted July 22 54 minutes ago, EmmetK said: Harris Poll: TRUMP 50% Harris 41%. Trump +9 Harris Poll out today, conducted over the weekend: Trump 50%, Harris 41%, undecided 9% (p.33) Trump +9 When undecided were forced to choose: Trump vs Harris: Trump 53%, Harris 47% (p.35) Trump +6 Even better news: Trump approval rating: 45%. Harris approval rating 39%. Trump +6 https://www.harrisx.com/content/hop-july-19-21-2024 You guys keep forgetting that Cackles was the first democrat candidate to drop out of the primary race in 2020. She dropped out before the California primary. She was polling at 1%. There is a reason she was polling at 1%. Trump will defeat Harris by an even bigger margin than he would have beaten Dementia Joe Hang on EmmetK, hang on...I can feel your desperation and fear....But its not over yet, we have 3 months to go with Kamala humiliating Trump at every turn.... Trump hates woman, and especially BLACK woman, Judge Chutkan, Fani Willis, Lettia James, etc.... so imagine one beating his ass at the finish line ? This November, Trump will simply be a FELON....with 3 more cases hanging over his head. Hang on EmmetK, this will hurt alot, but you'll survive. And then you can come back and stump for Donald Trump Jr in 2028 Bingo T Dog and stevenkesslar 1 1 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted July 23 Members Posted July 23 2 hours ago, EmmetK said: You guys keep forgetting that Cackles was the first democrat candidate to drop out of the primary race in 2020. LOL. You keep forgetting Biden and Harris won in 2020. Are you ever going to accept that Trump is a rapist, a felon, and a loser? Oh. And you keep forgetting you lost in 2018. And 2020. And 2022. And 2023. And you will lose in 2024. Poor thing. The one thing I would call a victory on the GOP side is that Kevin McCarthy, who comes from a diverse district in California, said we need to integrate the Republican Party. His approach was very different than Donald Trump publicly disgracing a Black female Republican House member, Mia Love. Who lost in 2018, because she did not "give me love", in Trump's gross old raping lying words. This is why most Americans can't wait to vote against the raping lying felon. Anyway, what did McCarthy do? He found Black and Hispanic conservatives and got them elected. What did the GOP do? They fired McCarthy. And now you are going back to attacking a Black woman because she cackles. You really have no clue, do you, clown? So Harris (the poll, not the next POTUS) is the most pro-GOP of polls. And this poll is very useful because it gives us a baseline. Penn says that the country is +5 Republican now, in his new poll. The 538 average says the country is actually dead even right now, 44.5 to 44.5, on the generic Congressional vote. They include Harris being R + 5 in that average. So it suggests that Harris leans about +5 to Trump, compared to other polls. If true, which I think it is, that means Harris and Trump are actually tied in favorability right now. CNN did an average of polls (pre-Sunday) and found Trump/Harris is too close to call, since Harris does slightly better than Biden. In this Harris poll, including leaners, Trump beats both Biden and Harris by 6 (53/47). That would sound about right, for a poll that is consistently skewed about +5 Republican compared to the average of polls. So it again suggests the race is very close, with Trump having a narrow lead that is not statistically significant. This poll was done BEFORE Sunday, when the race changed. Interestingly, since Harris separates out the field results from Friday and Saturday, Trump was beating Harris +8 (including leaners) on Friday, but only +4 on Saturday. Probably just statistical noise. But, again, this is a poll that consistently skews pretty far to the right. And it was taken the day before everything changed. So in my mind it simply confirms that it is a close and wide open race. A few other things. This poll was taken at the worst possible time for Democrats. Until Sunday, the party was in turmoil and near despair. Meanwhile, Susie and Chris did a hell of a job pulling off a fantastic RNC. With the sad exception that they could not get the lying raping felon to keep his mouth shut or stay on message. Sad! So whatever these numbers are, this is the best possible result for Trump, with a pollster that consistently shows him doing better than most polls. And you can even measure this comparing Harris poll to Harris poll. The prior Harris poll, on July 13-15 (pre-RNC) showed Trump beating Harris by 4, not 6. It showed Trump with 43 % approval and Harris with 40 % approval, a 3 point spread. That compares to the post-RNC 6 point spread (45/39) in approval ratings you cackled about. You like to cackle, don't you? This was all predictable. In 2016 Trump actually got a big but temporary convention bump in the second half of July after the RNC. It was actually the only time in 2016 he led Clinton in the national poll average, by about 1 %. In 2020 he got a very small little bump. Kind of makes sense, since people didn't really learn anything new about why they wanted to fire his ass. Which they did. Here's an interesting question: why did Trump get such a small bump from the 2024 RNC? I'm guessing because the lying raping felon could not keep his mouth shut, or stay on message. What do you think? Speaking of conventions, I think in 24 hours we have settled the question of whether Democrats will unify at their convention, or have a food fight. It is Kamala Harris's party now. Her stepdaughter, who raised money for innocent children being slaughtered in Gaza, will not be outside the convention leading protests against "Genocide Joe". I think that means Lichtman will NOT take the party contest or social unrest key away from Democrats. So in Lichtman terms, that means Democrats now have 3 keys against them, with only 3 more undecided (third party, foreign policy success, foreign policy failure). All three would have to turn against Harris for her to be predicted to lose. Possible. But probably unlikely, since Lichtman says only 2 are leaning against her now. I know you dismiss the fact that he's been right, in advance, every time since 1984. But you never liked facts much, anyway, did you? I'm sorry, poor thing. It's gonna hurt bad when your lying raping felon loses to Queen Cackle, isn't it? Bingo T Dog 1 Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted July 23 Posted July 23 54 minutes ago, Suckrates said: Hang on EmmetK, hang on...I can feel your desperation and fear....But its not over yet, we have 3 months to go with Kamala humiliating Trump at every turn.... Trump hates woman, and especially BLACK woman, Judge Chutkan, Fani Willis, Lettia James, etc.... so imagine one beating his ass at the finish line ? This November, Trump will simply be a FELON....with 3 more cases hanging over his head. Hang on EmmetK, this will hurt alot, but you'll survive. And then you can come back and stump for Donald Trump Jr in 2028 He clasps onto individual polls, like a drag queen clutches her pearls in a lip synch. The drama stevenkesslar and Bingo T Dog 2 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted July 23 Members Posted July 23 2 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said: He clasps onto individual polls, like a drag queen clutches her pearls in a lip synch. The drama Its desperation because he knows the Trump Titanic is going down, but he has to be Strong, like his leader, so he will never admit to it.... He will continue to search for numbers that support his pipe dream of Trump winning..... Its sad really that his whole identity is Trump. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
