Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Will Not Endorse VP Kamala Harris - Trump should step aside, too!

[stevenkesslar]

Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Will Not Endorse VP Kamala Harris

Halperin was driven into exile by Me Too, appropriately.  But now he is back.  And apparently his sources are still good.

I like this a lot.  I don't think a Kamala coronation makes any sense.  I think it's better for her to win the nomination the way Biden himself did in 2020:  without Obama's blessing.  That said, I think it is pretty clear Kamala will win the nomination.  And drive a huge spike in enthusiasm and relief among the Democratic base.

It does completely reset the race.  Who knows what the impact will be?  But, if true, there is now only one smelly disgusting lying felon in the race who can't keep his hands off women's pussies.  Whether it is raping them or taking their rights away.  And that disgusting old lying felon is named Donald Trump.  

Donald Trump is a disgusting old lying raping felon.  Donald Trump should step aside immediately!  America deserves better than having a disgusting old lying raping felon running for POTUS.  A majority of Americans want disgusting old lying raping felon Donald Trump to step aside!

@EmmetK, 57 % of Americans want your disgusting old lying raping felon to step aside.  That includes the majority of Independents.  They want the lying raping felon gone.  Will Donald Trump listen to Americans and withdraw from the race tonight, like the majority of Americans want?

 

[unicorn]

I don't know if she'd accept the nomination, but for Chrissakes, why not nominate the person who has the best chance to defeat Trump?

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-07-10/poll-other-democrats-outperform-biden-in-matchups-against-trump

Doesn't seem that complicated. 

[unicorn]

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/only-michelle-obama-bests-trump-alternative-biden-2024

Can't we all agree that the most important goal is to defeat Trump?

 

[stevenkesslar]

35 minutes ago, unicorn said:

Can't we all agree that the most important goal is to defeat Trump?

Of course we can.  (Well, not @EmmetK, of course.)  And we can also agree defeating Trump has to be based on reality.

Michelle Obama has said repeatedly for years she has absolutely no interest in running for POTUS.

The other reality, as a pollster I cited on another thread wrote, is that these polls that test a horse race between Trump and anyone other than Biden are going to underestimate (name someone else who is much less well known until they actually are well known).  Polls about Trump versus Humpy Dumpty, Little Red Riding Hood, Peter Pan, Goldilocks, and Mary Poppins aren't really based in reality.  Granted, Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Beshear, and Pritzker are real people, not fairy tales.  But I'm pretty sure Humpty Dumpty has far better name recognition than the Governor of Kentucky.

I'm also pretty sure that poll you cited tests name recognition more than anything else.  I'm genuinely curious how many voters who know "Biden" do not know "Harris".  I would bet money there are a lot of Americans who know who Michelle Obama is, but have no idea who Kamala Harris is.  When you get down to Beshear or Pritzker, that's just a given.

The more interesting question that is worthy of debate is, "Can't we all agree that at this moment, in July 2024, a month before the DNC, the only person who can defeat Trump, other than Joe Biden, is Kamala Harris?"

[unicorn]

31 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

...The more interesting question that is worthy of debate is, "Can't we all agree that at this moment, in July 2024, a month before the DNC, the only person who can defeat Trump, other than Joe Biden, is Kamala Harris?"

I doubt that's true. I haven't seen the polling numbers for this person, but I'd guess that Amy Klobuchar would have a better chance, if Michelle Obama refused to step up to the plate. I suspect AK would be happy to run if nominated. 

[RockyRoadTravel]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Will Not Endorse VP Kamala Harris

Halperin was driven into exile by Me Too, appropriately.  But now he is back.  And apparently his sources are still good.

I like this a lot.  I don't think a Kamala coronation makes any sense.  I think it's better for her to win the nomination the way Biden himself did in 2020:  without Obama's blessing.  That said, I think it is pretty clear Kamala will win the nomination.  And drive a huge spike in enthusiasm and relief among the Democratic base.

It does completely reset the race.  Who knows what the impact will be?  But, if true, there is now only one smelly disgusting lying felon in the race who can't keep his hands off women's pussies.  Whether it is raping them or taking their rights away.  And that disgusting old lying felon is named Donald Trump.  

Donald Trump is a disgusting old lying raping felon.  Donald Trump should step aside immediately!  America deserves better than having a disgusting old lying raping felon running for POTUS.  A majority of Americans want disgusting old lying raping felon Donald Trump to step aside!

@EmmetK, 57 % of Americans want your disgusting old lying raping felon to step aside.  That includes the majority of Independents.  They want the lying raping felon gone.  Will Donald Trump listen to Americans and withdraw from the race tonight, like the majority of Americans want?

 

Being the glass half full kind of person that I am, at least Emmet gives us the Coles notes of the messaging from the MAGA echo chamber with out having to step into their swamp. While not applauded, his efforts to warn us of conspiracies to come can be acknowledged.  

[stevenkesslar]

33 minutes ago, unicorn said:

I doubt that's true. I haven't seen the polling numbers for this person, but I'd guess that Amy Klobuchar would have a better chance, if Michelle Obama refused to step up to the plate. I suspect AK would be happy to run if nominated. 

I like Klo.  She filled Paul Wellstone's seat.  And he was my political mentor.  So she always has a warm spot in my heart.

A Bidenesque story, meaning an old war story that makes me sound old.  At the time Wellstone won his US Senate seat, in 1990, Minnesota was seen as a solid red state, with two Republican Senators who had served for over a decade.  A top Reagan White House political operative who was a lobbyist for GE Capital who I was working with on a $1 billion Community Home Buyers Program at the time told me this:  "Your friend (Paul) has no chance.  (Incumbent Senator) Boschwitz has great constituent services.  No one can touch him."

Professor Paul, and my best best friend from college who ran his campaign, touched Rudy.  They beat him with the kind of fiery populist working class campaign that helped turn the tide of Reaganomics and helped make Minnesota a blue state.  It worked in 1990.  That is what Democrats need to do in 2024.  And it is eminently doable.

15 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

at least Emmet gives us the Coles notes of the messaging from the MAGA echo chamber with out having to step into their swamp. While not applauded, his efforts to warn us of conspiracies to come can be acknowledged.  

Speaking of which, from today's news:

Quote

And on Thursday, the Trump campaign previewed another line of attack against Democrats: That they were engaging in an “attempted coup.”

That's rich coming from Team MAGA.  At least they know what they are talking about when they talk about coups!

But on the topic of coups, we will have to have a reality check about how you toss Biden away, after he won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly.  The thing Kamala Harris has going for her is that people voted for her as the one who would take Biden's place if needed - twice.  Once in 2020, in the general election, and again in the 2024 primary.  That's a philosophical point.  If we didn't elect Kamala to take Biden's place, why did we vote for her?  The much more pragmatic point is there are only two people who can legally run the vast financial and human infrastructure called the Biden/Harris campaign:  Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris.  Harris does not have a campaign team around her, so she would start at a deficit.  But Klo, or anyone else, would start at a massively bigger deficit when we talk about what it takes to win a campaign - money, and a huge GOTV infrastructure.

[RockyRoadTravel]

41 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

I like Klo.  She filled Paul Wellstone's seat.  And he was my political mentor.  So she always has a warm spot in my heart.

A Bidenesque story, meaning an old war story that makes me sound old.  At the time Wellstone won his US Senate seat, in 1990, Minnesota was seen as a solid red state, with two Republican Senators who had served for over a decade.  A top Reagan White House political operative who was a lobbyist for GE Capital who I was working with on a $1 billion Community Home Buyers Program at the time told me this:  "Your friend (Paul) has no chance.  (Incumbent Senator) Boschwitz has great constituent services.  No one can touch him."

Professor Paul, and my best best friend from college who ran his campaign, touched Rudy.  They beat him with the kind of fiery populist working class campaign that helped turn the tide of Reaganomics and helped make Minnesota a blue state.  It worked in 1990.  That is what Democrats need to do in 2024.  And it is eminently doable.

Speaking of which, from today's news:

That's rich coming from Team MAGA.  At least they know what they are talking about when they talk about coups!

But on the topic of coups, we will have to have a reality check about how you toss Biden away, after he won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly.  The thing Kamala Harris has going for her is that people voted for her as the one who would take Biden's place if needed - twice.  Once in 2020, in the general election, and again in the 2024 primary.  That's a philosophical point.  If we didn't elect Kamala to take Biden's place, why did we vote for her?  The much more pragmatic point is there are only two people who can legally run the vast financial and human infrastructure called the Biden/Harris campaign:  Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris.  Harris does not have a campaign team around her, so she would start at a deficit.  But Klo, or anyone else, would start at a massively bigger deficit when we talk about what it takes to win a campaign - money, and a huge GOTV infrastructure.

Harris/Shapiro.  Imagine, A Black/South Asian woman and a Jewish man - a segment of the MAGA extremists heads would implode. (I chose implode rather than explode because nature abhors a vacuum.) 

[stevenkesslar]

43 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Harris/Shapiro.  Imagine, A Black/South Asian woman and a Jewish man - a segment of the MAGA extremists heads would implode.

Well, we know she has a thing for Jewish guys, anyway.

Doug isn't even First Gentleman yet, and he is already a class act.

[EmmetK]

 

I know facts are difficult for you to accept.
In the last month, EVERY poll has TRUMP winning. And his lead is even wider in the battleground states.

How many of you losers will I see at the Trump inauguration ball?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

 

As of November 6, 2024, Dementia Joe and Cackles can start a new beginning as a comedy team. Cackles will give the straight line. Dementia Joe will respond with his blank stare and mouth wide open.  Then a pause for 3 seconds and cackles will burst into laughter.
They can have a regular weekly gig with the nasty hens at the VIEW and Morning Joe.

  

[Suckrates]

2 hours ago, EmmetK said:

 

I know facts are difficult for you to accept.
In the last month, EVERY poll has TRUMP winning. And his lead is even wider in the battleground states.

How many of you losers will I see at the Trump inauguration ball?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

 

As of November 6, 2024, Dementia Joe and Cackles can start a new beginning as a comedy team. Cackles will give the straight line. Dementia Joe will respond with his blank stare and mouth wide open.  Then a pause for 3 seconds and cackles will burst into laughter.
They can have a regular weekly gig with the nasty hens at the VIEW and Morning Joe.

  

 

Yeah, uh-huh.   The polls had Hillary winning too !    

[unicorn]

15 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

... a reality check about how you toss Biden away, after he won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly.  The thing Kamala Harris has going for her is that people voted for her...twice...

Talk about needing a reality check. First of all, he only won the 2024 primaries "overwhelmingly" because there was no option. Secondly, the only person who ever "voted" for KH was Biden. Biden won the primary in 2020, and he picked a running mate. Period. You're obviously old enough (63 or 64) to know that the VP isn't elected separately. Thirdly, much new information has come to light since the primaries/caucuses took place (some as long as 6 months ago, i.e. the New Hampshire Primary), that has extreme relevance to the election. For one, it's obvious to everyone that Biden has developed marked cognitive impairment, and, what's worse, is that he lacks awareness of this disability (as is common for those afflicted with dementia). (I will note that Trump also has dementia, though not as bad, and will probably be at Biden's state in 1-2 years, and will be much more dangerous) Perhaps even more importantly, it's now obvious that Biden has almost no chance of winning, perhaps even flipping the Senate if he stays in (obvious to almost everyone except Biden). I don't know if Harris is popular enough to win against Trump, but at least there's a chance. The reality is that Biden staying in the race will lead to disaster for the US (and Biden doesn't seem to care, having said so himself). 

[Suckrates]

I'll say this for the millionth time, THIS ELECTION is NOT about a person....  Its about an AGENDA.   Do we want a Democracy with a team working to give choice and freedom, or do we want a Dictatorship with a deranged and dangerous person, looking to control US, avoid jail, and enrich HIMSELF ?   

[Moses]

3 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

I'll say this for the millionth time, THIS ELECTION is NOT about a person....  Its about an AGENDA.   Do we want a Democracy with a team working to give choice and freedom, or do we want a Dictatorship with a deranged and dangerous person, looking to control US, avoid jail, and enrich HIMSELF ?   

those who need an agenda have already decided - they have joined either the Democrats or the Republicans, but those who are undecided need a person to convince... and the Democrats have no one to offer - all the persons are unconvincing

[stevenkesslar]

23 minutes ago, unicorn said:

Talk about needing a reality check. First of all, he only won the 2024 primaries "overwhelmingly" because there was no option. Secondly, the only person who ever "voted" for KH was Biden. Biden won the primary in 2020, and he picked a running mate. Period. You're obviously old enough (63 or 64) to know that the VP isn't elected separately. Thirdly, much new information has come to light since the primaries/caucuses took place (some as long as 6 months ago, i.e. the New Hampshire Primary), that has extreme relevance to the election. For one, it's obvious to everyone that Biden has developed marked cognitive impairment, and, what's worse, is that he lacks awareness of this disability (as is common for those afflicted with dementia). (I will note that Trump also has dementia, though not as bad, and will probably be at Biden's state in 1-2 years, and will be much more dangerous) Perhaps even more importantly, it's now obvious that Biden has almost no chance of winning, perhaps even flipping the Senate if he stays in (obvious to almost everyone except Biden). I don't know if Harris is popular enough to win against Trump, but at least there's a chance. The reality is that Biden staying in the race will lead to disaster for the US (and Biden doesn't seem to care, having said so himself). 

I don't disagree with anything you said, as far as it goes.

I don't think you understood either of my points about a reality check.

First, tens of millions did vote for Kamala Harris as Vice President.  They did not vote for Mike Johnson, or Nancy Pelosi, or Porky Pig.  They voted for Kamala Harris.  They voted for her in the 2020 election.  They voted for her in the 2024 primary.  If Biden died of a heart attack yesterday, Kamala would be POTUS today.  That is the Constitutional order of things.  Everybody knows that.  

Clever Republicans who want Biden as Trump's opponent are already showing off both their cynicism and fear by saying Democrats are plotting a "coup attempt" against Biden.  Talk about coups!  These anti-democratic cynics should know.  But they do have a point that if we have a Democratic primary and then somehow Gavin Newsom is the nominee, how was that actually democracy?  So there is this basic idea that the Veep takes the place of the POTUS if he can't serve.  That is why we have a Veep.  It does give the process democratic legitimacy.  It is more democratic than, say, Gerald Ford, who was never actually elected as either Veep or POTUS.

A lot of Republicans are saying that if Biden steps aside as nominee, it also means he is not qualified to be POTUS for six more months.  That's debatable.  I think the real concern is whether he can serve four more years.  But mostly based on Lichtman's ideas, which are all over the internet, if the goal is to beat Trump, and Biden is going to step aside as nominee, I think Kamala would have a better shot if she ran as POTUS, not Veep.  Lichtman is saying, correctly I think, that having Kamala run as non-incumbent - especially if it requires a party fight to even get her nominated - is setting up 2016 all over again.  He says Biden should resign and let Kamala take his place, and she'd then be a relative shoo-in as nominee.  I think Lichtman is right.  Nobody thinks a "coronation" is a good idea.  But if Biden resigned and Kamala became POTUS and they vote on it as the DNC, it is likely that Harris would win overwhelmingly.  That would show a united party, much like the Trump/MAGA party is united.

Second reality check I think you missed, which is also a major talking point of anyone actually running national elections.  There would be massive legal and financial problems for any person not named Joe Biden running for POTUS, unless that person is named Kamala Harris.  That is mostly because of money and infrastructure that belongs to the Biden/Harris campaign.  But, in theory, if Gavin Newsom were the nominee, Republicans could challenge even getting his name on state ballots.  They are already threatening to do the same if Harris takes Biden's place.  But they don't have a strong legal case to do so if the name is Harris.  

For both reasons, the reality check is that if Democrats want to beat Trump, and the whole things is about beating Trump, and in fact what actually matters most is beating Trump, there would be so many political, legal, and financial problems picking anyone other than Harris that it would probably just be better to let Biden limp to the finish line and lose.

As far as your ability to diagnose dementia, I'm honestly a bit skeptical.  That has been addressed before by someone else on the board with medical credentials, which i don't have.  But I agree with your non-professional point, which is that the public overwhelmingly thinks Biden - AND TRUMP - are too old.  And majorities of Americans want BOTH old men to step aside.

[Suckrates]

1 minute ago, Moses said:

those who need an agenda have already decided - they have joined either the Democrats or the Republicans, but those who are undecided need a person to convince... and the Democrats have no one to offer - all the persons are unconvincing

I will agree the chaos caused by the Democratic infighting is not helping them, and off putting to voters.   But regardless of WHO ends up at the head of the Dem ticket,  the Agenda will be the same, Freedom and Democracy.    At this point in time, there should be NO UNDECIDED voters,  we know who BOTH men are, and what they stand for and offer.  For Gods sake, they need to just pick a fucking side of how they want to live their lives.   This isnt rocket science.   Its a clear and simple choice

[stevenkesslar]

2 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

I will agree the chaos caused by the Democratic infighting is not helping them, and off putting to voters.

Actually, I'm not sure of that at all.

I think if the election were held today, yes.  Then it would be bad news for Democrats.

There's a glaringly obvious fact.  Way over half of Americans do not want Joe Biden running.  And way over half of Americans do not want Donald Trump running.  Majorities of Independents want BOTH old men to step aside.  In both cases, old age is a major issue.  But in Trump's case, it has more to do with the fact that he is a felon and a liar.

So what America just saw is a coronation of Trump, who rambled on for 90 minutes like an old demented man who has no ability to regulate his own behavior.  Hopefully Gen Z misses that and just sees some cool video on Tik Tok about how he pumped his first after someone almost killed him.  Welcome to politics, Zoomer edition!

For everyone else, Democrats are being the adults in the room.  You can argue that we should have gotten our shit together sooner.   But especially if the issue is whether to take Grandpa's car keys away, that is always difficult.  I posted Biden's 2022 Philly address on MAGA as a threat to democracy, and NO ONE - not even Fox - was saying the guy making that speech sounded demented.  After the 2022 elections, everyone was actually saying, "Wow!  Biden got it right."  That matters, because that more than anything is what killed the talk about how Biden should not run in 2024.  In retrospect, that WSJ article several months ago has more credibility than it seemed to at the time.  But there's a reason I ignored it.  The only people they quoted were Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy, Biden's political opponents.

So bottom line is if Democrats manage to replace an old man America doesn't want with someone else like Kamala Harris they actually voted for - once in a general election and once in a primary - I don't think that makes Democrats look bad.  I think it makes it look like we listened to voters about something that is sad, but has become obvious.

[Moses]

25 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Hopefully Gen Z misses that and just sees some cool video

I’ve been writing here for 2 years now that the Democrats have scared away the entire generation Z with the very sight of Biden - this generation, in principle, cannot imagine that Biden can correspond to their vision of the future, because he is the very personification of a distant and alien past.

But every time I read from you “Nobody but Biden!”

[stevenkesslar]

5 hours ago, EmmetK said:

I know facts are difficult for you to accept.
In the last month, EVERY poll has TRUMP winning. And his lead is even wider in the battleground states.

I know facts are difficult for you to accept, @EmmetK.

I did manage to watch all 90+ minutes of Trump's demented sounding ramble of a speech.  So I guess I get it.  Facts are bad, aren't they?

It's a fact that MURDER spiked 30 % in 2020 under Trump and he left office as the Murder President.  It's a fact that murder and violent crime fell over 10 % in 2023 under Biden, and seems to be headed down more under Biden.  But the MAGA cult can not talk about this fact.  It is a fact that JD Vance is viciously anti-union, and unions detest him.  And yet somehow Republicans won't talk about all the things JD Vance has done to undercut unionized workers.  Let's not even talk about how Trump 1.0 was all about cutting taxes for billionaires and corporations.

So, yes.  You really don't like facts.  You like felons, and liars.

So you wanted some Harris polling?

What is it about facts that you hate so much?  Is it that you fear losing?  That would make sense.  Under Trump, radical MAGA voters lost in 2018, and 2020, and 2022, and 2023.  So, yeah.  Odds are you will lose in 2024, now that JD Vance was chosen to double down on the radical MAGA message of tax cuts for billionaires and attack democratic elections and support Putin's genocide.

Quote

In Michigan, Harris with Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER as her vice presidential nominee are dead even with Trump and Vance, tied at 46 percent according to the poll.

And in Pennsylvania, a hypothetical ticket with Harris running alongside Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO would run one point ahead of Trump and Vance.

What is it about facts you hate, @EmmetK?  I mean, do you want Trump back so murder rates can spike 30 % again?  What part of Biden reducing violent crime and murder do you not like?  How is this radical bullshit good for America.

I'm pretty sure those poll numbers above underestimate where this is going.  The Democratic Party is in chaos right now.  The Republicans just had a great convention, thanks 100 % to Susie Wiles and 0 % to off message Donald Trump, who is old and off message and is the guy who gave us a 30 % spike in murder.  What is it about blood you guys like?  Is it a testosterone thing?  

Meanwhile, the same PPP poll shows Casey winning by 11 points, and Slotkin winning by 8 points.  So it's pretty clear that people in Pennsylvania and Michigan are for democracy, and plenty willing to vote for Democrats.  So the chaos is worth is it gets voters a candidate they actually WANT to vote for.

What is it about facts that you hate, @EmmetK?  Why would you want to bring back a felon who lies and gave America a 30 % spike in murder?

 

[Moses]

4 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

It's a fact that murder and violent crime fell over 10 % in 2023 under Biden, and seems to be headed down more under Biden.

Yeah, and attempt Trump assassination just confirms it, right. 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

I’ve been writing here for 2 years now that the Democrats have scared away the entire generation Z with the very sight of Biden - this generation, in principle, cannot imagine that Biden can correspond to their vision of the future, because he is the very personification of a distant and alien past.

But every time I read from you “Nobody but Biden!”

You know, unlike @EmmetK, you are actually good at facts.  So you should know that right now I am hardly in "Nobody but Biden" camp.  I hope he resigns, Kamala steps up as POTUS, and she wins in November.  The polls, like the one I just cited above, said that is eminently doable.

The Gen Z. thing is interesting.  I don't think we will know for sure until election day.  (Note to Russians:  US elections are real, and we actually do NOT know the outcome of elections before they happen.)

So there's this idea that Zoomers are turning to Republicans, because they are reacting against Biden.  And there's this separate but related idea that in democracies all over the world, young women are turning left while young men are turning right.  South Korea is a great example, and there are lots of articles about the gender war there.  So maybe it is age.  Or maybe it is a gender gap.  Or maybe it is some of both.

So I'll cite a YouGov poll that shows Trump beating Biden by 5 and Harris by 3 as a few granular examples.

When asked how much they are thinking about the Presidential race, 76 % of voters over 65 years old say a lot.  Only 48 % of voters under 30 do.  And I think the RNC spoke for itself.  If you put some video on Tik Tok that lasts 60 seconds or so with Trump and White guys with muscles doing guy shit, and then have Hulk Hogan rip his shirt off and it is all very cool, and it is awesome, and like wow that guy is fucking tough, and like this is badass fucking testosterone, well I don't know maybe that is how young guys say, "Fuck!  Trump survived a bullet!  I'm in!"

Sadly, these guys are missing out on all the fun stuff.  If they lived in Russia, they could be super lucky and super badass and be sent to Ukraine by Genocide Man to be processed into fertilizer.  So I guess they don't really even know what they are missing, since they maybe see the world through Tik Tok and wrestling.  91 % of voters over 65 say they definitely will vote.  Only 65 % of voters under 30 say they will definitely vote.  I'm pretty sure Black college students who are passionate about Biden/Harris will vote.  I'm pretty sure it's the guys who like Tik Tok and Hulk Hogan and think Trump is badass who are a lot less likely to vote.

Meanwhile, among voters aged over 65, Trump beats Biden 58/41.  Among voters under 30, Biden beats Trump 60/38.  That huge age gap is comparable to 2020, if these polls are right.  

The polls that show a much closer race among Zoomers, including ones that show Trump and Biden are roughly tied among Zoomers, tend to come from certain polling outfits, like a Harris poll done by Mark Penn.  I have no clue why.  It has to have something to do with polling methodology.  He tends to have the most pro-Trump polls.  And I think it may have to do with counting these marginal young voters who are actually the least likely to vote.  I don't know.  But we will all learn when people actually do go vote who got it right and who was way off.  We do know in 2020 that the age gap was huge, and young voters overwhelmingly sided with Biden and Harris.

In the same poll, voters under 30 say they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 62/37 margin  (25 points, compared to +20 points for Biden among voters under 30).  So that suggests that having a younger and more exciting candidate might help Democrats even more with young voters.  But mostly voters under 30 clearly want a Democrat over Trump, if these polls are right.

There's a few other things I will mention that seem to explain what is going on here, but that I don't think anyone knows for sure.

I have cited polls before that show that that the Zoomers who are most pro-Trump are the ones who are the least likely to vote, and most likely to say politics doesn't even matter.  The Zoomers who are most likely to vote are overwhelmingly for Biden/Harris.  So it is a big gamble that these young people who don't vote regularly and think politics sucks and are disaffected will go vote for Trump because he is badass or takes a bullet and survives, or whatever.  Inflation sucks!  That's probably how they feel, it seems, if I just watch Tik Tok and what they like.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaigns speaks for itself, and its deep cynicism.  It hopes to gain power just by selling the idea that, "Yeah, you are disillusioned and things suck and inflation sucks so vote for Trump and JD!!!!!!"

Quote

The second bucket of the low-propensity voters are actually people who have, in the past, voted, but they’ve been reliably Democratic. So here’s where we’re talking about young people, where we’re talking about Black men ages 18 to 34, Latino men, potentially even Latino women to some degree — again, depending on the modeling that they’re looking at.

Quote

They think that ultimately, the much more effective way to reach these people is with the narrowly tailored microtargeting approach that Wiles had done so effectively in Florida to reach some of these same nontraditional constituencies and convince them not even so much that the Republican Party is their friend, but that the Democratic Party is their enemy, and to fuel a disillusionment with Democratic politics that they think is already pretty ripe in those areas, in those communities.

That's a very small part of an interview between Ezra Klein and Tim Alberta of The Atlantic, who followed Trump's campaign masterminds and just wrote about their very well thought out plan, based on what Susie Wiles has proven can work in Florida.

That said, it is all built on cynicism, not cement.  They are not saying, "Here is what Republicans and Trump and JD Vance will do for you."  It is all built on just creating disillusionment and cynicism, including about democracy itself.  "Vote for Trump, because voting sucks!  We won't do shit for you.  But the Democrats will give you inflation and war!"  That's not what they are saying, of course.  But it's the basic idea.  Just make people feel Democrats are the problem.

The best specific example of what Wiles did in Florida is turning Latino immigrants into Republicans.  They started a frenzy about how Biden wants to bring the very socialism you escaped in Venezuela or whatever to Florida.  Biden is a socialist!  Harris is a socialist!  It worked great among recent Latino immigrants, who hate socialism.  Now if instead they are working Moms and somebody said Biden was the guy who got you that child tax credit that helped pay for groceries and Republicans took it away, that would be a whole different thing.  So I don't think they are building a foundation on cement.  But as long as the bullshit keeps coming and there is no serious pushback, it works.

Trump is hoping cynicism wins among young low information voters.  That is his whole strategy.  It's more than a little risky.

I don't think Kamala Harris is good news for Trump, especially among young voters.  If Democrats want Zoomers, I think Kamala is maybe the best choice.  She is a Black Asian American woman who can passionately tell you how she will FIGHT for you.  The poll I cited above says she'd beat Trump by 25 points among young voters, compared to 20 points for Biden.  Beyond the polls, she is passionate about the idea that if you are a woman and if you are a minority and if you are vulnerable, what politicians decide absolutely matters.  Whether they will let you get an abortion or help you with your child after she is born absolutely matters.  I will FIGHT for you and that absolutely matters.  How badass is that?

Harris would be an antidote to the foundational strategy of the Trump 2024 campaign, which is cynicism and disillusionment.

[EmmetK]

56 minutes ago, Moses said:

I’ve been writing here for 2 years now that the Democrats have scared away the entire generation Z with the very sight of Biden - this generation, in principle, cannot imagine that Biden can correspond to their vision of the future, because he is the very personification of a distant and alien past.

But every time I read from you “Nobody but Biden!”

@Moses You are correct!

A Pew Research Poll published last week shows that for the first time in its polling history more voters identified or leaned to the Republican party than Democrats (47 to 46). The trend is clearly very favourable for the GOP. For voters under 26, the gap is remarkable. Republicans +30.

"Just four months before the 2024 Presidential Election, young people are moving toward the Republican Party in a big way. Most of the people flocking to this party are below 30. This development is taking place despite its contender Donald Trump being convicted in the hush money case. This has also come at a time when President Joe Biden has come under scathing attack for his dismal performance in the first presidential debate held on June 27. Biden has rejected all calls to step aside and vowed ..

47% of respondents support Republicans

According to the National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), published by Pew Research Center, 47% of respondents said they were Republican or lean Republican. Besides, 46% of the respondents claimed to be Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats, reports 'Newsweek'. Pew Research conducted the research between February 1 and June 10 and contacted 5,626 U.S. adults.

 

Support base shifts

In an opinion poll held after the first presidential debate, the support base was found to have shifted from Joe Biden to Donald Trump in as many as six states, previously dominated by Democrats. In another survey, more than half of the voters, mostly Democrat supporters, said that Biden was too old and weak to be the president for another term."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/pew-research-center-report-young-voters-moving-toward-republican-party-most-of-them-under-30-details-here/articleshow/111669107.cms?from=mdr

 

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

  

 

[Suckrates]

 

A Harris/Trump matchup could be quite interesting....  The Prosecutor vs The Felon......    One has to check their schedule for the debate, and the other has to check with their parole officer. 

[Bingo T Dog]

5 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

@Moses You are correct!

A Pew Research Poll published last week shows that for the first time in its polling history more voters identified or leaned to the Republican party than Democrats (47 to 46). The trend is clearly very favourable for the GOP. For voters under 26, the gap is remarkable. Republicans +30.

"Just four months before the 2024 Presidential Election, young people are moving toward the Republican Party in a big way. Most of the people flocking to this party are below 30. This development is taking place despite its contender Donald Trump being convicted in the hush money case. This has also come at a time when President Joe Biden has come under scathing attack for his dismal performance in the first presidential debate held on June 27. Biden has rejected all calls to step aside and vowed ..

47% of respondents support Republicans

According to the National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), published by Pew Research Center, 47% of respondents said they were Republican or lean Republican. Besides, 46% of the respondents claimed to be Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats, reports 'Newsweek'. Pew Research conducted the research between February 1 and June 10 and contacted 5,626 U.S. adults.

 

Support base shifts

In an opinion poll held after the first presidential debate, the support base was found to have shifted from Joe Biden to Donald Trump in as many as six states, previously dominated by Democrats. In another survey, more than half of the voters, mostly Democrat supporters, said that Biden was too old and weak to be the president for another term."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/pew-research-center-report-young-voters-moving-toward-republican-party-most-of-them-under-30-details-here/articleshow/111669107.cms?from=mdr

 

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

  

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

47 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

For voters under 26, the gap is remarkable. Republicans +30.

I guess it makes sense that you cling to facts that seem unlikely.   It is a fact that someone tried to kill Donald Trump.  It is not a fact that Jesus Christ saved Donald Trump so he could have his way with America.  But many MAGA radicals who will overlook Trump's criminal behavior and lies and rape believe Jesus saved Trump so that Trump can have his way with America.  Whatever!

As I just cited above, a new poll that shows Trump beating Harris by 3 points says young people (voters under 30) favor her by 25 points over Trump.  The same young voters (under 30) prefer Biden by 20 points over Trump.  So if Democrats want voters under 30, Biden is good, and Harris is better.  Meanwhile, older voters (over 65) overwhelmingly prefer Trump over either Harris or Biden.  The numbers I just cited are very much in line with what actually happened in the 2020 election.  So who knows?  But it seems unlikely that the results of the 2020 election have now flipped completely, and young voters under 26 overwhelmingly prefer Trump.

I know you hate facts, @EmmetK.  So I assume you have not tried to download the dataset, right?  Pew wants me to register to actually look at the data, and that's not something I generally register with websites to do.

Since you like to jump at any fact or lie that you think supports your argument, you're not much help here.  What I could find that was a little more specific was a Newsweek article that said the actual shift in the NPORS data was from +1 Democrat in 2023 to +2 Republican in 2024.  Given Biden's unpopularity, if that is what the 3 point shift measures, that makes sense.  Like, a year ago Biden and Trump were tied.  Now Trump is up +3.  So that would explain the shift, I guess.  

What we don't have a clue about is why polls say Casey will slay his Republican opponent in Pennsylvania, Slotkin will slay her Republican opponent in Michigan, and yet Biden is losing to Trump in both states.  This seems to be less about Democrats, in general, and more about Biden.

As far as the R+30 thing among voters under 26, the Newsweek article says the following:

1.  It is actually R+26 when "non-responses to gender" are accounted for, whatever that means.

2.  It is actually R+7, according to someone else.

3.  It is actually sample noise, according to some smart guy.

Quote

G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics at ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, wrote on X the results could be caused by "sample noise" but added that there are other explanations.

 

4.  It is actually a huge generational shift, according to the same smart guy, who you desperately want to believe.

5.  It is actually polling selection bias that is throwing off polls, according to the same smart guy, who you desperately don't want to believe.

Whatever.  If you ask me, young voters kicked Trump's ass in 2020 and they seem prepared to do it again.  Biden is absolutely turning young voters off.  Which is why I am sorry to see Joe go, but I think he needs to.  Meanwhile, Democrats have been kicking ass in about every other election in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

I'll add this.  I absolutely believe that there are 19 year old Zoomers who did not vote in 2020, who did not pay any attention to Trump when they were going through puberty, who spend a lot of time on Tik Tok, who are mostly disaffected, and whose view of politics is based on short ranting videos saying Biden sucks because he is for inflation and war.  And Trump kicked the shit out of a bullet no less! 

Biden is a pussy!  Trump is a badass!  I'm in!

If that is your strategy to win, good luck.

I know you want to believe Jesus saved Trump so he could have his way with America.  I simply believe Trump survived, which is a good thing.  The fact that I don't want the gross old lying felon to have his way with America is simply my opinion.  Like Trump, you do not understand the difference, clearly.