Why should Joe Biden stay?

[RockyRoadTravel]

2 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Amongst the stats you posted, the most telling one to me is that 86% of Democrats want Trump to continue as the Republican candidate for President. A majority of Americans may be nervous about Biden's age, but a majority of Americans hate Trump, his incompetence, his hate-spewing name calling and threats of violence.  

Quoting myself here. I made a mistake with the first sentence.  While 86% of Democrats might be fearful for the Constitution and America with a Trump Presidency, 86% of them do not want him as a candidate, one who would energize their base and lead to the Republicans defeating themselves as they did in 2020. 

[stevenkesslar]

4 hours ago, EmmetK said:

The dems are in total disarray. Keep Dementia Joe? Dump Dementia Joe? What to do about Cackles?
Meanwhile, the GOP is more united than ever. Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis all spoke glowingly of Donald Trump.

This election will be a Trump landslide. If you don't believe me, ask Botox Pelosi, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, Pencil-Neck Schiff, Hakeem SEKOU Jeffries, etc.

What did facts do to you?  Did they beat you?  Did they throw you down the stairs?  Why do facts make you feel terror?

The reason we know the election will be a Trump landslide is obvious.  A brand new Ipsos polls shows a tie between Trump and Harris:  44/44.  Is that how we know Trump will win in a landslide?

Quote

• Expanding the ballot, Vice President Kamala Harris also ties with Trump, each earning 44% among registered voters.

Which do you hate more, @EmmetK?   Facts, or Kamala Harris?

I just looked on 538 and in the last week or so I see five national polls that show Harris and Trump in head to heads.  They range from Kamala tied, which is the Ipsos poll above, to Kamala behind 5 points.  If I average them out she is 2 to 3 points behind Trump in polls right now.  About the same as Biden and Trump.  Fun fact:  in 2016, Trump was about the same number of points behind Hillary in July.  Who won the election?  Or is that a fact you don't care about, @EmmetK?  You only like culty facts.  The idea that Trump always wins and is always right is a culty fact, correct?

What's also interesting is that, especially in state polls, there have to be a lot of people who don't know who Kamala Harris is.  Jill Biden once told a story about how one of her college students saw a picture of her with Michelle Obama, and wondered how she knew the First Lady.  The student had no idea that she was the wife of the Vice President.  So I suspect that in some of these polls people have no idea who Kamala Harris is, or what they think about her.

A new state poll of Pennsylvania is a good example.  It shows Trump leading Biden by four (49/45), and Trump leading Harris by seven (47/40).  Well, that's because Kamala cackles, right?

No.  That's because racist idiots like @EmmetK love to kick the shit out of an articulate Black women as a DEI candidate, somehow thinking that will help win "the Black vote".  Even though Kamala has won every race - DA, AG, Senator - she actually contested.  How dumb is that of @EmmetK?  Even Trump is not THAT stupid or racist.  No wonder this guy hates facts.

For anyone who is tolerant of facts, here is what the actual pollster says:

Quote

“In these ballot tests Harris performs below Biden. However, it is important to note that a vice president who is not the party nominee (or presumptive), tested against the other party’s actual nominee, may yield weaker numbers than a ballot test should both be their respective party’s candidate. That said within the smaller demographic subsets, the declines for Harris versus that of Biden, for the most part, were generally small. That suggests that with the mantel of nominee, her numbers could potentially improve.”

I specifically mention Pennsylvania because of the three Rust Belt states Biden or Harris MUST win, Biden polls furthest behind in PA right now.  So what we know based on this poll is that in a race of two knowns, Trump/Biden, this poll says Trump can get up to 49 %.  In a race with a lesser known, Harris, Trump gets up to 47 %.  In other words, we really have no idea what happens if and when Kamala is the nominee, and the focus of intense national scrutiny.  But one thing we do know, for sure, is idiots like @EmmetK won't be able to resist saying dumb and racist things about Black women that will drive Blacks to Kamala.

One other thing we know for sure.  The Pennsylvania Senate race is not even close. Democrat Casey is clobbering Republican McCormick by six points, way more than Trump is clobbering Biden or Kamala in national polls.  So it is one of an almost universal set of data points that shows one person is a drag on the generic Democratic ticket:  Joe Biden.  Baldwin is up 5 in WI, Slotkin is up 5 in MI, Gallego is up 3 in AZ, Rosen is up 5 in NV, Brown is up 5 in OH.  Tester, who was leading in every poll months ago, is now down 1.5 %. 

So it makes it very clear that there is something specific about Joe Biden that makes him run worse than almost every other Democrat.  And now we have heard why with our own ears.  I don't think seeing is believing, in this case.  Most Americans agree both Trump and Biden look too old.  The issue is hearing.  Something has changed in Biden in the last year.  That seems clear.  You can listen to his speeches given in 2022, when Democrats crushed the red wave, and hear the difference.

 

That's Fall 2022.  He seemed fine then.  He does not sound the same today.  Kamala, meanwhile, burns with passion when she speaks.

[JKane]

 

 

 

[EmmetK]

18 hours ago, Suckrates said:

  Most non-MAGA Americans see right thru them.  The fact that it doesnt penetrate you proves the depth and seriousness of your sickness.

Really? Is that why the latest CBS poll has it TRUMP +5.  And the margin is even bigger in the battleground states.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-biden-national-07-18-2024/

MAGA  = Make America Great Again. So you are correct. The majority of Americans want to make America GREAT again. They are fed up with high inflation, high crime, millions of unvetted illegals crossing the border.
This election will be a Trump landslide. Most Americans agree with Trump. The fact that you don't is totally irrelevant. 

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

 

   

 

 

[KeepItReal]

49 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Really? Is that why the latest CBS poll has it TRUMP +5.  And the margin is even bigger in the battleground states.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-biden-national-07-18-2024/

MAGA  = Make America Great Again. So you are correct. The majority of Americans want to make America GREAT again. They are fed up with high inflation, high crime, millions of unvetted illegals crossing the border.
This election will be a Trump landslide. Most Americans agree with Trump. The fact that you don't is totally irrelevant. 

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

 

 

Yup, all that brain power has me reconsidering my vote...

[EmmetK]

.

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

  

[Suckrates]

 

WE endorse Biden.  Do you need more reason to VOTE for him ????

 

 

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

 

WE endorse Biden.  Do you need more reason to VOTE for him ????

 

 

 

Yes, I do need more of a reason - Biden was competent at governing Trump was incompetent.  Four years ago we were fighting over toilet paper - that's the Trump legacy. 

[stevenkesslar]

 

4 hours ago, Suckrates said:

 

WE endorse Biden.  Do you need more reason to VOTE for him ????

 

 

 

 

No.  But I do need a phone number.   😉

 

[stevenkesslar]

9 hours ago, EmmetK said:

 

And there you have it.  

You are against a Black woman because she smiles? 

Or is it that even today, when the Democratic Party is in a big crisis and Biden is politically dead, the polls show Harris and Shapiro as a ticket will beat Trump?  That is how much America rejects the lying felon who wants to unleash Putin power.  And that is right after three weeks that were horrific for Democrats and great for Republicans.  You do realize this is probably as good as it gets, right?

Trump Is Planning for a Landslide Win

And his campaign is all but praying Joe Biden doesn’t drop out.

I think that article is a must read for anyone who wants to understand how Trump could win, and why he will probably lose.  The full article Tim Alberta wrote is in The Atlantic, behind a paywall.  That tells you enough to get the broad idea of what Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita were well on their way to doing.  They need to be taken as seriously as a heart attack, since Wiles did do it to Democrats in Florida (and to Ron DeSantis, for Trump).  And LaCivita did it to John Kerry in 2004. 

You can argue right now Democrats are doing Trump's job for him.  Or you can argue that Wiles and LaCivita are a bit too smart and way too cynical for their own good.  So the campaign they hoped to win through disillusionment and dirt is now completely going to backfire on them.  They want Trump to be the strong alpha male running against a Biden that is old, weak, and feeble.  Instead, they are going to have to defend an old crook and liar against a prosecutor who is particularly gifted at throwing narcissistic lying rapists in prison.  Game on!

I'm going to quote from this extensive interview Ezra Klein did with Tim Alberta, about the core of the Trump 2024 strategy.

Quote

The key contrast in this campaign that the Trump people have been trying to engineer and optimize and operationalize from day one is strength versus weakness. Talking about the Southern border. Talking about the world on fire and Biden misplaying various geopolitical hands. Talking about the economy and inflation.

 

Quote

The Trump people believe, even setting aside the question of Biden’s age and visible decline and some of his fragilities, they believe that in all the focus grouping they do, the polling they do, that the question of Biden being weak, the notion of Biden being weak, is, time and time again, the most effective line of attack on him.

Quote

And you would have to say that in this campaign, the two moments that have done that are the debate and the assassination attempt. And I think what’s most problematic for Biden and his team at this point is that those two moments, both are almost tailor-made to fit the Trump campaign’s key narrative of strength versus weakness.

Quote

And so once you’ve done that work, once you’ve built out this campaign that is, in many ways, quite sophisticated, quite professionalized, especially compared to Trump’s previous two efforts, which were a joke in a lot of ways, once you’ve done that work, the only thing that could ruin your best-laid plans is if that guy who you’ve been preparing to run against suddenly isn’t on the ballot anymore. And it’s caused a bit of a freakout in Trump world over these last couple of weeks.

Quote

And as I write in the piece, they are all but praying at this point that Democrats don’t find an alternative because they really believe that if Biden stays on the ballot, they’re going to win the biggest Republican election since Reagan.

 

It's quite easy to see how Biden loses if 2024 is a referendum on Biden's age, as a symbol for all these other things wrong with Democrats - like weakness.  In fact, it's impossible to NOT see how Biden loses if 2024 is a referendum on his age.  He has lost.  His campaign is all but over.  Now that all the leaders of the Democratic Party have spent weeks making the Trump campaign's case, there is no way Biden can continue.  He has to know that, even if he can't say it publicly yet.

The main thing Wiles and LaCivita were smart about is building a campaign around something that is obviously true:  Biden is old.  Biden helped them along simply by making it painfully obvious, first in a debate and then in every time he has appeared in public since.

The fact that I keep coming back to is that every Democrat in every swing state is doing well, apart from Biden.  Every Democratic Senate candidate, in particular, is ahead of their Republican opponent.  And, with the exception of Nevada, which elected a Republican Governor, these are all states - Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, (and Georgia when it comes to Senate races at least) - where Democrats keep winning statewide races.

Republicans obviously think, or at least pretend they think, that if Biden is gone they can just use the same playbook on anyone else.  But, as Alberta argues, they can't.  And they know they can't. 

They can and will go after Harris hard on immigration.  But the main argument they make about immigrants is that they will murder, rape, and eat you.  Which is factually incorrect, since undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes, including violent crimes.  Since they want nothing to do with cops  But forget about facts.  Who is the bad ass that actually prosecuted lots of murderers and rapists?  Kamala Harris, or Donald Trump?

Why won't Republicans admit that murder and violent crime spiked 30 %  under Trump?  Why won't Republicans admit that murder and violent crime dropped over 10 % under Biden and Harris last year?  Why won't Republicans admit their refusal to do anything about assault weapons came within an inch of killing their own candidate for President?

If Republicans want to talk about murder and rape in America, that's a great debate for a Black female prosecutor to engage in.  But she will demand that a felon and rapist and liar like Trump has to at least try to tell the truth once in a while!

Wiles and LaCivita may have turned out to be too cynical for their own good.  They are now the ones who are going to have the tired old lying crook, who is weak on crime and weak on rape and weak on telling the truth and weak on upholding the rule of law, as their weak candidate. 

Even right now, at their best moment, the polls show a ticket led by Harris and Shapiro or Whitmer will beat them.

[RockyRoadTravel]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

And there you have it.  

You are against a Black woman because she smiles? 

Or is it that even today, when the Democratic Party is in a big crisis and Biden is politically dead, the polls show Harris and Shapiro as a ticket will beat Trump?  That is how much America rejects the lying felon who wants to unleash Putin power.  And that is right after three weeks that were horrific for Democrats and great for Republicans.  You do realize this is probably as good as it gets, right?

Trump Is Planning for a Landslide Win

And his campaign is all but praying Joe Biden doesn’t drop out.

I think that article is a must read for anyone who wants to understand how Trump could win, and why he will probably lose.  The full article Tim Alberta wrote is in The Atlantic, behind a paywall.  That tells you enough to get the broad idea of what Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita were well on their way to doing.  They need to be taken as seriously as a heart attack, since Wiles did do it to Democrats in Florida (and to Ron DeSantis, for Trump).  And LaCivita did it to John Kerry in 2004. 

You can argue right now Democrats are doing Trump's job for him.  Or you can argue that Wiles and LaCivita are a bit too smart and way too cynical for their own good.  So the campaign they hoped to win through disillusionment and dirt is now completely going to backfire on them.  They want Trump to be the strong alpha male running against a Biden that is old, weak, and feeble.  Instead, they are going to have to defend an old crook and liar against a prosecutor who is particularly gifted at throwing narcissistic lying rapists in prison.  Game on!

I'm going to quote from this extensive interview Ezra Klein did with Tim Alberta, about the core of the Trump 2024 strategy.

 

 

 

It's quite easy to see how Biden loses if 2024 is a referendum on Biden's age, as a symbol for all these other things wrong with Democrats - like weakness.  In fact, it's impossible to NOT see how Biden loses if 2024 is a referendum on his age.  He has lost.  His campaign is all but over.  Now that all the leaders of the Democratic Party have spent weeks making the Trump campaign's case, there is no way Biden can continue.  He has to know that, even if he can't say it publicly yet.

The main thing Wiles and LaCivita were smart about is building a campaign around something that is obviously true:  Biden is old.  Biden helped them along simply by making it painfully obvious, first in a debate and then in every time he has appeared in public since.

The fact that I keep coming back to is that every Democrat in every swing state is doing well, apart from Biden.  Every Democratic Senate candidate, in particular, is ahead of their Republican opponent.  And, with the exception of Nevada, which elected a Republican Governor, these are all states - Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, (and Georgia when it comes to Senate races at least) - where Democrats keep winning statewide races.

Republicans obviously think, or at least pretend they think, that if Biden is gone they can just use the same playbook on anyone else.  But, as Alberta argues, they can't.  And they know they can't. 

They can and will go after Harris hard on immigration.  But the main argument they make about immigrants is that they will murder, rape, and eat you.  Which is factually incorrect, since undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes, including violent crimes.  Since they want nothing to do with cops  But forget about facts.  Who is the bad ass that actually prosecuted lots of murderers and rapists?  Kamala Harris, or Donald Trump?

Why won't Republicans admit that murder and violent crime spiked 30 %  under Trump?  Why won't Republicans admit that murder and violent crime dropped over 10 % under Biden and Harris last year?  Why won't Republicans admit their refusal to do anything about assault weapons came within an inch of killing their own candidate for President?

If Republicans want to talk about murder and rape in America, that's a great debate for a Black female prosecutor to engage in.  But she will demand that a felon and rapist and liar like Trump has to at least try to tell the truth once in a while!

Wiles and LaCivita may have turned out to be too cynical for their own good.  They are now the ones who are going to have the tired old lying crook, who is weak on crime and weak on rape and weak on telling the truth and weak on upholding the rule of law, as their weak candidate. 

Even right now, at their best moment, the polls show a ticket led by Harris and Shapiro or Whitmer will beat them.

If/when Biden drops out, the next question, in my mind is:  what does Biden do next? 

Does he become a messenger for a specific issue - maybe saving American representative democracy from Trump and MAGA? The threat of a 2nd Trump term is what propelled him into the race in 2020. 

Or does he focus on governing and explaining all that was done to build back from the wreckage left by Trump's incompetence? 

[Suckrates]

Trumps repeated declarations of a Landslide win are nothing more than him and his team laying the groundwork to deny his LOSS in the 2024 election.   Same thing he did in 2020....  He keeps using poll numbers as his evidence of an expected win, and gaslights his rabid followers into believing he was the winner all along.   Lets see what Trumps friends on the Supreme Court do if/when the final decision of certification makes it way to THEM ?   After all, you know Trump KNOWS he has friends on the SC...    And the poll numbers also give his supporters license to do some crazy pushback shit should he lose.    Whatever the case, win or lose it will probably be a bad and messy situation.  The only hope is that the poll numbers turn around before Election day for a Dem candidate. . 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

If/when Biden drops out, the next question, in my mind is:  what does Biden do next? 

Does he become a messenger for a specific issue - maybe saving American representative democracy from Trump and MAGA? The threat of a 2nd Trump term is what propelled him into the race in 2020. 

Or does he focus on governing and explaining all that was done to build back from the wreckage left by Trump's incompetence? 

Until a few days ago, I was not even aware Mark Halperin was still around.  I loved Game Change and all the political reporting Halperin and John Heilemann did together.  Until Halperin got whacked, appropriately, by Me Too. 

Anyway, Halperin sure seems to have kept all his political contacts. So he has both podcast and YouTube group chats posted off his X account that are fascinating inside looks as this tragedy plays out.  Most of what he's putting out there is being confirmed by other sources, like CNN and MSNBC.  Although some of it is speculative.  And some of it is probably being fed to Halperin, as well as others, to try to force Biden's hands.  Jon Meacham quickly rebutted the idea that he is helping Biden write a speech dropping out.

So based off his YouTube tonight, if Halperin is right, two things are clear.

One, Biden will not resign, because he does not want to slink away.  That makes sense for personal reasons, of course.  But if he feels that way, it also helps end the fight and patch things up, I'd guess.  Presumably, he wants to do what you said:   take credit for all his accomplishments, building back from Trump's wreckage.  Which no Democrat disputes.  And he wants to be the outgoing President who looks on as his Democratic successor, Kamala Harris, is sworn in in January.  If that is where he is, or is getting to, in his mind it gives everyone a reason to have to figure out how to end this and create a path out of hell.

Two, there is a consensus that Kamala Harris has to be the nominee.  But even her own people get that it does not make sense to coronate her.  If that is true, it's likely they don't even have a clue what that means - yet.  But it's logical that anyone who understands how campaigns work and money works, and how the base of the party works, would reach this conclusion pretty quickly.  Halperin is already saying that Newsom and Shapiro and Whitmer will not challenge Kamala.  Which also makes sense, since no one wants to get in the way of an organically unified  "Trump must not win" steamroller.  It makes sense that if Biden says he is not the nominee, Biden/Harris delegates who are pledged to that ticket would naturally tend to vote for Kamala.  So it may be like the Democratic primary:  not technically a coronation, but not a real fight.  

Halperin made lots of other interesting comments based on saying he has known Harris for over a decade.  First, he thinks it would not necessarily be good for her to have to get up to speed both as a new POTUS, and as a new nominee, at the same time.  That has never happened before, to my knowledge.   Ford and LBJ and Truman, to name the last three, had at least a year, not months, to get used to being POTUS first.  He also said she's going to have to be a better Kamala than the one she has been to win, but he sees her capable of doing that.  Not sure what that means, either.  But I took it as mostly a positive from a very hard assed political observer.

A final point he made about Kamala is that she needs to come up with a few new policy proposals that distinguish her from Biden.  Makes sense.  Abortion will be one of her main rallying cries, for sure.  But there are other issues I have heard her speak passionately about.  Crime could actually be one of them.  She has spent the majority of her political career as a successful and respected crime fighter.  That may now be a plus, unlike in 2020 when BLM was rocking.

Biden would also want to be the elder statesman and outgoing leader who stopped Trump once and who will now help stop him again.  Who keeps the nation focused on everything he says (now somewhat incoherently, if we are being honest) about preserving democracy.  But that's a plus to me.  It is a good message for him, even if it is garbled these days.  And he will of course want Harris, not Trump, to win.  Even if he goes to the grave hating Obama and Pelosi and Schumer and knowing it should have been him instead.  Denial is a powerful thing.  😉

I know nothing about Jill Biden.  And maybe it is sexist to blame Joe's problems on his wife.  But if I accept the plausible idea that Joe can't see his own weaknesses and decline, Jill could have helped it getting this far out in public.  And if it keeps going further, it adds to the Republican argument that Biden has to resign now.  Moulton said in an editorial today that his buddy Joe Biden didn't even recognize him recently.  If every POTUS had to quit because he failed to recognize someone, we'd never have a POTUS.  And Trump of course is not held accountable by his party for anything.  But I'm guessing right now Hunter Biden is just being bat shit crazy and Jill Biden, who could be guiding Joe out of his own worst instincts, is instead probably reinforcing them.

One final interesting point about what Halperin said:  Mark Kelley.  That's the name Halperin said is being thrown around a lot as a running mate, especially by Republicans.  I assume he means Never Trump Republicans.  Or maybe he means pro-Trump Republicans who are just willing to be honest about their objective read on what Democrats should do if they want to win.  But it obviously would have a lot of upside in terms of balancing a ticket and also keeping Arizona in play.  And Kelley would be a huge plus talking about what we need to do on immigration.  Although I'd put Shapiro and Whitmer and The Rust Belt first, probably.  That's a problem for down the line.

Lots of ifs, and way too early to tell.  But it looks like Team Pelosi may have once again shown she can pull a political rabbit out of a hat. 

Ironically, Nancy Pelosi is three years older than Biden.  But she is out-organizing the hell out of him!

[Suckrates]

They must also elevate the issue off reforming the Supreme Court that Biden introduced this week.  Its a hot button issue, and a majority of Americans are currently dissatisfied with the majority Corrupt court.   GOP thinks the courts actions are perfectly fine, OF COURSE they would !     Harris as a fierce prosecutor can argue the shit out of this issue, as she does for reproductive freedom.  

When you listened to Bidens RNC speech, the message he pushed is that with him as President, everthing in American will be PERFECT... All people will be rich, working, kids will be well educated, no immigrants, safe communities,  there will be strong medical care and Social Security, and No Wars.   That is just NOT the truth, and that case must be made as all those things relate to a P25 agenda.  In fact the truth is the opposite...  As I've said in earlier posts, it all comes down to the Dems "dissecting" P2025 chapter by chapter and explaining in the simplest terms so even "meemaw" will understand what is being proposed by Trump,  some of which will happen in the earliest stages of his Reign. 

Every Dem MUST........

[Suckrates]

Correction to my previous post..... Second paragraph should read  "When you listened to Bidens Trumps RNC speech.

[RockyRoadTravel]

12 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Until a few days ago, I was not even aware Mark Halperin was still around.  I loved Game Change and all the political reporting Halperin and John Heilemann did together.  Until Halperin got whacked, appropriately, by Me Too. 

Anyway, Halperin sure seems to have kept all his political contacts. So he has both podcast and YouTube group chats posted off his X account that are fascinating inside looks as this tragedy plays out.  Most of what he's putting out there is being confirmed by other sources, like CNN and MSNBC.  Although some of it is speculative.  And some of it is probably being fed to Halperin, as well as others, to try to force Biden's hands.  Jon Meacham quickly rebutted the idea that he is helping Biden write a speech dropping out.

So based off his YouTube tonight, if Halperin is right, two things are clear.

One, Biden will not resign, because he does not want to slink away.  That makes sense for personal reasons, of course.  But if he feels that way, it also helps end the fight and patch things up, I'd guess.  Presumably, he wants to do what you said:   take credit for all his accomplishments, building back from Trump's wreckage.  Which no Democrat disputes.  And he wants to be the outgoing President who looks on as his Democratic successor, Kamala Harris, is sworn in in January.  If that is where he is, or is getting to, in his mind it gives everyone a reason to have to figure out how to end this and create a path out of hell.

Two, there is a consensus that Kamala Harris has to be the nominee.  But even her own people get that it does not make sense to coronate her.  If that is true, it's likely they don't even have a clue what that means - yet.  But it's logical that anyone who understands how campaigns work and money works, and how the base of the party works, would reach this conclusion pretty quickly.  Halperin is already saying that Newsom and Shapiro and Whitmer will not challenge Kamala.  Which also makes sense, since no one wants to get in the way of an organically unified  "Trump must not win" steamroller.  It makes sense that if Biden says he is not the nominee, Biden/Harris delegates who are pledged to that ticket would naturally tend to vote for Kamala.  So it may be like the Democratic primary:  not technically a coronation, but not a real fight.  

Halperin made lots of other interesting comments based on saying he has known Harris for over a decade.  First, he thinks it would not necessarily be good for her to have to get up to speed both as a new POTUS, and as a new nominee, at the same time.  That has never happened before, to my knowledge.   Ford and LBJ and Truman, to name the last three, had at least a year, not months, to get used to being POTUS first.  He also said she's going to have to be a better Kamala than the one she has been to win, but he sees her capable of doing that.  Not sure what that means, either.  But I took it as mostly a positive from a very hard assed political observer.

A final point he made about Kamala is that she needs to come up with a few new policy proposals that distinguish her from Biden.  Makes sense.  Abortion will be one of her main rallying cries, for sure.  But there are other issues I have heard her speak passionately about.  Crime could actually be one of them.  She has spent the majority of her political career as a successful and respected crime fighter.  That may now be a plus, unlike in 2020 when BLM was rocking.

Biden would also want to be the elder statesman and outgoing leader who stopped Trump once and who will now help stop him again.  Who keeps the nation focused on everything he says (now somewhat incoherently, if we are being honest) about preserving democracy.  But that's a plus to me.  It is a good message for him, even if it is garbled these days.  And he will of course want Harris, not Trump, to win.  Even if he goes to the grave hating Obama and Pelosi and Schumer and knowing it should have been him instead.  Denial is a powerful thing.  😉

I know nothing about Jill Biden.  And maybe it is sexist to blame Joe's problems on his wife.  But if I accept the plausible idea that Joe can't see his own weaknesses and decline, Jill could have helped it getting this far out in public.  And if it keeps going further, it adds to the Republican argument that Biden has to resign now.  Moulton said in an editorial today that his buddy Joe Biden didn't even recognize him recently.  If every POTUS had to quit because he failed to recognize someone, we'd never have a POTUS.  And Trump of course is not held accountable by his party for anything.  But I'm guessing right now Hunter Biden is just being bat shit crazy and Jill Biden, who could be guiding Joe out of his own worst instincts, is instead probably reinforcing them.

One final interesting point about what Halperin said:  Mark Kelley.  That's the name Halperin said is being thrown around a lot as a running mate, especially by Republicans.  I assume he means Never Trump Republicans.  Or maybe he means pro-Trump Republicans who are just willing to be honest about their objective read on what Democrats should do if they want to win.  But it obviously would have a lot of upside in terms of balancing a ticket and also keeping Arizona in play.  And Kelley would be a huge plus talking about what we need to do on immigration.  Although I'd put Shapiro and Whitmer and The Rust Belt first, probably.  That's a problem for down the line.

Lots of ifs, and way too early to tell.  But it looks like Team Pelosi may have once again shown she can pull a political rabbit out of a hat. 

Ironically, Nancy Pelosi is three years older than Biden.  But she is out-organizing the hell out of him!

Pelosi was always good at getting under Trump's thin skin.  She transitioned herself out of leadership smoothly. 

[RockyRoadTravel]

Old resentments can emerge at a time of high stress.  There's been some reporting that Biden resented the Democratic leadership backing the historic choice of Hillary, as the first female candidate for president by one of the two major parties, rather then the sitting Vice-president. Is this true?  Who knows, at the time I remember him being quoted that his grief after losing his son Bo to cancer was why he didn't run. Maybe he was reading the room.  

If Joe had run in 2016, he'd likely have beaten Trump. We'd have a 6-3 majority of non-extremists on the Supreme Court. Washington DC might be a State (larger population than Wyoming and Vermont), we wouldn't have all this Trump court drama going on (okay, there would be Trump court drama, people taking The Donald to The Court is a story old as time). 

I can see how resentment about, what could have been if they'd only believed in me, could color the man's current thinking.  

[Stable Genius]

When you are blinded by your own power, and won’t let go, like Diane Feinstein and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, you bring down those around you. If Biden leaves now, his departure will ultimately be seen as heroic. If he tragically clings to power, he may end up being reviled for enabling the destruction of democracy.

[Suckrates]

Whatever decision Biden ultimately makes has the potential to be the WRONG one.   He's stuck between a rock and a "hard head".....   Will his legacy be that he was "stubborn" and self absorbed,  or that he brought down Democracy.  Its sad after such an illustrious political career, it comes down to this.    Give the guy some Grace at least

[stevenkesslar]

9 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

There's been some reporting that Biden resented the Democratic leadership backing the historic choice of Hillary, as the first female candidate for president by one of the two major parties, rather then the sitting Vice-president. Is this true?

Of course we never know for sure whether what these reporters say based on inside sources is true.  But I have read that so many times - at least dozens - that I assume it is true.    I think I've probably read it maybe a dozen times just in the last week, in the context of what Obama and Pelosi and Schumer are doing now.  In a few contexts.  One, these are the geniuses who decided Hillary should run in 2016.  Two, these are the geniuses who managed to blow the 1994 and 2010 midterms.  Look what I (Biden speaking) did in 2022.  How many dozens of Democrats did I dispatch to the grave?  (Answer:  almost none.)  I'm sure Biden is extremely proud of how Democrats navigated the 2022 midterms on his watch.  Which he should be.

But if any of that is true, it's not the best Joe.  Both Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp, who are both now MSNBC talking heads, said pretty much the same thing on TV the last few days.  This is not an appropriate time for Biden to be angry.  This is a team sport.  And, in a sense, you could say Biden is being asked to take one for the team.  (My words, not theirs, but I think it reflects their main point.)  McCaskill and Heitkamp should know.  I love them both.  They took one for the team when they got buried in Missouri and North Dakota in the 2018 red wave in red states.  They are the kind of red state moderate Democratic Senators we need to nurture and love more of, if we are ever going to have 60 votes in the Senate again.  And they are right that it doesn't help if we lose Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown.  And when all these people with very good political acumen are all saying the same thing - Biden is simply a drag on the ticket - you have to listen.

To be a bit more cynical, what I find even more convincing is this.  When Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita base the entire Trump 2024 campaign on one theme - Biden is weak, old, and feeble - Democrats should listen.  There is no guarantee that switching the candidate they have built an army to defeat will fuck them up.  But I think it will probably fuck them up.  I think suddenly Trump becomes the one who is the old crook and rapist, with a tough prosecutor coming after his sorry lying ass.  That's not my idea.  That's the thing a majority of Americans say about Trump in polls, and have for years.  He is a crook, with no integrity, and he should stand down as the nominee. 

So I think if Biden listens to people - including most Democrats - this will fuck Trump up.  Then Trump is the old raping asshole who the majority of Independents want to stand down.  That's what I mean when I say Biden, who is not senile, is being asked to take one for the team.  And, if the team is right, he's being asked to do this based on the principles he says he most cherishes and wants to defend.

9 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

If Joe had run in 2016, he'd likely have beaten Trump.

So that's the fascinating counterfactual.  And on this one, I am just going to argue Lichtman's Keys are right.  He's been right 10 out of 10 times, by my count.   (Gore in 2000 can be debated.)  And his argument makes perfect common sense.  People vote based on how Presidents and their parties have governed, not based on how well they debate or campaign.  Let alone polls, or stupid ads.  So Lichtman says that Joe Biden or any Democrat non-incumbent would have lost in 2016.  It had nothing to do with Hillary being a woman, or being a Clinton.  But if Obama had been able to run for a third term as an incumbent in 2016, with his party unified behind him, Obama would have won.

If you buy that, which I do, Biden was lucky.  Hillary was the one who took one for the team in 2016.  Since Lichtman says whoever ran in 2016 was going to lose - even running against a sorry loser like Trump.  Lichtman also argues that whoever ran in 2020 was going to beat Trump, who had governed poorly and now had the Keys turned against him.  I buy that, too.  We can't have a redo.  But had we Democrats not chosen Biden, we would not have this problem now.

I am a Lichtman fanatic, and have been for many years.  His theory makes sense in practice.  But, more important, I'm a pragmatist who likes to win.  And he has been right every fucking time.  But I do have one philosophical problem with his theory.  If you buy it, he basically argues that what the challenging candidates do and say in campaigns is pretty much irrelevant.  Only one of his keys indirectly deals with that:  challenger charisma.  So he says Obama would have won, anyway.  But it helped in 2008 that Obama could draw in people from the other side.  Just like in 1980 Reagan would have won, anyway.  But it helped that he had charisma and was able to draw in "Reagan Democrats".  But his system definitely suggests Biden's argument is correct.  Forget about debates and polls and what David Axelrod says.  They are overrated.  People will decide based on how Joe Biden governed.  Period.  And right now that bet looks good for Biden.  So the last thing we should do is throw Biden under the bus.

The problem, to me, is his system suggests that what Biden may do in 2025 or 2026 or 2027 or 2028 is irrelevant.  Whether he is sane, or even alive, is irrelevant.  Why even think about it?  And Lichtman may be right.  The closest precedent was 1984, when Reagan was arguably in worse shape than Biden cognitively.  Who cared?  He was the incumbent, running on a good record.  And he won in a landslide.  Lichtman is saying Biden is poised to do the same.  And Democrats may be about to fuck it up, because some rich donor is wetting his pants.

Again, speaking as a Lichtman fanatic, I know how I have squared this circle.  This has to be viewed by Democrats as a bet on the future.  Which is, I would guess, exactly what Team Pelosi is thinking.  And as soon as you say that, it is outside the scope of what Lichtman even claims to be good at. 

And you also have to start with the idea that if 70 % of Americans, including 65 % of Democrats, think Biden is not the right guy, they are probably right.  And the reason they are probably right is not about what Biden did in 2020, or 2022.  Or even how he debates in 2024.  It's about what they see coming down the road for Biden in 2025, and 2026, and 2027, and 2028.  I'm not a doctor.  But when I listen to Biden today, it's hard to think 70 % of Americans are wrong.  

Months ago, Lichtman was saying loudly that Biden was down only 2 of the 6 keys Biden would need to lose to predict his defeat.  So a lot would have to change for Democrats to lose.  Well, it has.  In June, right before the debate, Lichtman said that if nothing else changes, Democrats will probably lose 2 more of his Keys (both the foreign policy Keys) when he makes his final prediction in August.  So if that is where he ends up, with Biden as nominee, he's down 4 keys.  And Biden wins.  Losing the incumbency is key five.  And that seems a given now. If Biden steps aside as nominee, he will not resign.  In fact, the only reason I can see him accepting this in his mind is that he will have to believe he can help Kamala win, and seal Trump's fate.  So that leaves one key:  party unity.  Either Democrats are able to unify and turn this to their advantage under Harris.  Or we basically just nailed our coffin shut.  Bad news:  maybe we are about to die.  Good news: we get to decide our own fate.

I'll add a caveat to what Lichtman says about 2016 that is perhaps THE most important issue for Democrats right now.  Lichtman turned six keys against the Democrats in 2016, and two were that Hillary was not the incumbent, and there was a massive divisive fight among Democrats.  If Kamala is not the incumbent, it recreates that situation.  But I think it is just common sense that right now there is not a food fight between Sandernistas and Clintonians.  Quite the opposite.  The whole point is Democrats are unified against Trump, but they think Biden has lost the ability to lead the fight.  Lichtman himself has said on his podcast that is not at all predetermined that this has to end in a big Democratic brawl.  If Democrats can unify around Kamala, it in fact prevents the fatal sixth key from turning against her in Lichtman's system.

To get off Lichtman, I do see see this as a bet, and a reasonable one, on the future.  Even if Biden/Harris wins, it now seems clear that it's going to be ugly as Biden keeps aging.  Lichtman is probably right, in concept and in practice.  That will only matter at the level of Presidential vote in 2028, when people are judging the last four years.  If 2027 is when Biden can't even complete a sentence, or has a stroke, Democrats can kick the can down the road to 2028 in terms of any price they pay.  Or, if Harris simply takes his place, like many other Presidents have, there may be no price to pay.  But 2 in 3 Democrats would rather just avoid going down that road completely. It's a bet.  But it makes sense to me.

If things go well, Democrats prove to be the adults in the room who listen to 70 % of America, make a change, and try to give Americans what they actually want.  That is not obviously a recipe for failure.  But the thing that Lichtman is saying that makes common sense, and that the soul leaders of my party - like Jim Clyburn - are saying, is that this has to be grounded and presented in unity.  This can't be an ugly food fight.  Michelle Obama does have to show up in Chicago and tell America why she thinks Kamala Harris is the right choice.  And why Donald Trump is the wrong one. 

It's a wise bet to make, I think.  But I can feel for Joe, and how it's a bitter pill for him to swallow.

To end with your simple point, which I of course blew up into a rant,  I think Biden would have lost in 2016.  He was lucky to run in 2020, when he could win.  Now he should focus on what he wants history to say about him, and America.

 

 

 

[Goober]

Mark Kelly 2024