Why should Joe Biden stay?

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Riobard said:

Let the opponent’s madness shine and delegate highlighting that persistent get out of jail free insanity to those better equipped. As I said, he cannot convincingly sting. Better that he express sympathetic kindness.

Oddly, some version of that may be happening.  I watched a Pod Save America interview of Jen Psaki yesterday in which she said Biden has never shone in press conferences or interviews.  Put him around people and let him empathize and be Joe.  Psaki says that is what he is good at, and what people love about him.

I would not say the debate highlighted Biden's sympathetic kindness.  It highlighted his decline and confusion.  Regardless, his opponent's madness and lies shone through brilliantly.  It is now clear it did not change the national polls at all.  Biden was a few points behind, and is still a few points behind.  The latest poll on RCP, Marist, shows Biden beating Trump by two points.  People apparently can walk and chew gum at the same time.  They can be shocked at Biden, and still think Trump is a nasty gross old liar who they don't trust or want to return to power.

Also oddly, some version of democracy may be happening.  What is happening on the Republican side is proof of theory that Trump draws in people who like authoritarian leaders.  They have completely circled the wagons around their pathological liar.  That's not working on the Democratic side.  This is proof of theory that democracy is messy. 

That said, it is not a disorganized mess.  If Biden were two years younger, and everything else played out the same, he'd be cruising to victory.  At least according to Lichtman.  He did essentially cruise to victory in 2022.  After the red wave was stopped, people didn't say Biden was old and crazy.  They said he was wise, and got it right.  What's happening now is a complicated but serious discussion about a reality most of America now believes:  Biden's time is running out.  It seems like America is looking at the situation with appropriate alarm, but also sympathetic kindness.

And, one way of the other, there will be a resolution.  Heads it's Biden.  Tails it's Harris. 

Psaki, who knows something about effective communicating, says Kamala is an undervalued and fierce communicator.  I think she is right.  Tell me this woman would not be better than Biden in taking on her opponent's madness in a debate.

Eloquent.  She has both sympathetic kindness, and sting.

[Suckrates]

3 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Oddly, some version of that may be happening.  I watched a Pod Save America interview of Jen Psaki yesterday in which she said Biden has never shone in press conferences or interviews.  Put him around people and let him empathize and be Joe.  Psaki says that is what he is good at, and what people love about him.

I would not say the debate highlighted Biden's sympathetic kindness.  It highlighted his decline and confusion.  Regardless, his opponent's madness and lies shone through brilliantly.  It is now clear it did not change the national polls at all.  Biden was a few points behind, and is still a few points behind.  The latest poll on RCP, Marist, shows Biden beating Trump by two points.  People apparently can walk and chew gum at the same time.  They can be shocked at Biden, and still think Trump is a nasty gross old liar who they don't trust or want to return to power.

Also oddly, some version of democracy may be happening.  What is happening on the Republican side is proof of theory that Trump draws in people who like authoritarian leaders.  They have completely circled the wagons around their pathological liar.  That's not working on the Democratic side.  This is proof of theory that democracy is messy. 

That said, it is not a disorganized mess.  If Biden were two years younger, and everything else played out the same, he'd be cruising to victory.  At least according to Lichtman.  He did essentially cruise to victory in 2022.  After the red wave was stopped, people didn't say Biden was old and crazy.  They said he was wise, and got it right.  What's happening now is a complicated but serious discussion about a reality most of America now believes:  Biden's time is running out.  It seems like America is looking at the situation with appropriate alarm, but also sympathetic kindness.

And, one way of the other, there will be a resolution.  Heads it's Biden.  Tails it's Harris. 

Psaki, who knows something about effective communicating, says Kamala is an undervalued and fierce communicator.  I think she is right.  Tell me this woman would not be better than Biden in taking on her opponent's madness in a debate.

Eloquent.  She has both sympathetic kindness, and sting.

Sis, even under our current circumstances with a lying, dictatorial Trump looming, do you think Americans will elect a Black, female President, instead of an  OLD crazy, white male. ?

[stevenkesslar]

1 minute ago, Suckrates said:

Sis, even under our current circumstances with a lying, dictatorial Trump looming, do you think Americans will elect a Black, female President, instead of an  OLD crazy, white male. ?

In a word, YES.

[Suckrates]

4 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

In a word, YES.

Well I hope you are right.  I am packed and ready to jump on the Kamala train if that option comes to pass   

Back in the Primaries, I was routing for either she or  Pete Booty-call..... 

If Kamala gets the nod, do you think she should also pick a female Vice ?   

[stevenkesslar]

29 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

Well I hope you are right.  I am packed and ready to jump on the Kamala train if that option comes to pass   

Back in the Primaries, I was routing for either she or  Pete Booty-call..... 

If Kamala gets the nod, do you think she should also pick a female Vice ?   

I think running Kamala would generate a ton of excitement.  I think running her with Whitmer would be like Clinton/Gore in 1992 and Obama in 2008.  It would symbolize hope and change.  It would light a fire under people who are very turned off right now.  That said, if it is Harris she might want to pick someone like Shapiro for the same reason Obama picked Biden:  balance.

Fun but boring fact.  In 2008 Obama told Tim Kaine that his head was with Biden, but his heart wanted to pick Tim Kaine as Veep instead of Biden.  In some alternative reality, you can argue that Kaine would have run and won in 2020, after Hillary lost in 2016.  And he would now be running for a second term at a relatively young 66.  Or you could also argue that Biden has had to endure more than his fair share of insults and condescension from Team Obama.

Let's talk about Hillary and 2016.

Lichtman predicted in Sept. 2016 that Trump would win.  He argued that any generic Republican would beat the incumbent party, based on his Keys.  He said, if anything, Trump would do a bit worse than a generic Republican.  And he did, losing by 2 million votes and barely squeaking by in the electoral college.  My guess is someone like John Kasich would have won much more decisively in 2016.  So the point is Hillary was doomed.  Not because she's a woman.  But because the cards were dealt against her.  The two specific things she could not control is that she was not the incumbent, and the party was torn in half.  Lots of progressives either didn't vote or voted for Stein.  Which is why she lost narrowly in three key states.

If you buy Lichtman's model, 2024 is different.  Lichtman is saying Biden has two of his 13 keys working against him:  losing the midterms, and being uncharismatic.  He'd have to lose four more.  And in Lichtman's view there are only four in play:  a military failure, a military success, social disorder, and the third party key.  Biden would have to lose all four for Lichtman to predict defeat.  And, again, Lichtman has been right 10 out of 10 times, in advance, since 1984.  The one small blemish being he predicted Gore in 2000, who won the popular vote and lost the electoral college by a handful of votes in one state.

So we can break that down.  The issue about social chaos is the fear that we'd have protests about Genocide Joe and Gaza all Summer.  Ain't happening.  Lichtman turned that social chaos key against the incumbent party only three times in a century:  1932, 1968, 2020  (BLM/George Floyd).  As far as the second key, Biden does not appear likely to have a military defeat (Lichtman already said Afghanistan doesn't count, and Ukraine and Israel are not defeats).  So those two keys are unlikely to turn against Biden.  

Biden will not have a military success.  And the third party key looks like a toss up.  Right now the third party cabal gets about 12 % of the vote in the RCP average. Which is almost exactly the same as the third parties got in July 2016.  By Nov. 2016 that was watered down to 5 %, which is Lichtman's threshold for a serious third party challenge that signals deep discontent with the incumbent party.  So it's questionable whether that key will turn against Democrats.  Especially if Kamala is the nominee, a lot of progressives that would vote for Stein or West will likely flip to Kamala, who they will view as far better than Trump.  But let's just assume any Democrat loses both of these keys.  That's a total of four against any Democrat:  1) losing the midterms, 2) no charismatic candidate, 3) no military success, 4) serious third party challenge.

Lichtman's point now is that if Democrats trash their incumbent and invite a divisive party brawl, that takes away both keys that are their margin of victory, in his prediction system.  It could essentially replay 2016, he fears.  His Plan B is for Biden to resign, let Harris run as President Harris, and get the party unified behind her as the consensus candidate.  Who, by the way, was the candidate Democratic Party primary voters chose to replace Biden if needed.  She is the only candidate not named Biden that Democratic Party primary voters chose overwhelmingly.

Lichtman has not predicted a divisive party brawl if Biden steps aside.  He basically seems to be saying that if Democrats want to fuck it up, this is how history suggests you could fuck it up and hand the election to Trump.  Have a huge party food fight.  But I don't think 2024 is 2016.  We did not have a bitter primary fight between Clinton and Sanders.  Quite the opposite.  Biden and Harris sailed through easily.  The party is very unified around that idea that the horrific piece of shit named Donald Trump can not be returned to power.  

The question no one has the answer to right now is this:  will Biden step aside?  I think the chances have grown from maybe 5 % right after the debate to maybe 50 % now.  Even most Democrats want something different, it seems.  Independents sure do.  My guess is if Biden listens to what party leaders are saying and steps aside, the party will unite around Harris quickly and with little dissent from top leaders.  In this scenario it would be better if Biden resigned, I think.  But that is likely a bridge too far.

So my count is that Harris, running as the non-incumbent candidate, would have five keys against her.  Which Lichtman says would predict a Harris victory.  The sixth key that would be the decisive nail in her coffin would be if the party tears itself apart in choosing her.  I just don't think that is going to happen.  Everyone realizes the stakes are too high.  And all these keys make common sense.  Seeing Harris debating Trump would be a breath of fresh air.  Yes, this is a real crisis.  But what it would show, in practice, is that Democrats are capable of dealing with a crisis in their own party by putting forward someone we can all get behind who inspires hope and new ideas.

Bottom line, Lichtman would argue Obama did not win because he is Black.  And Hillary did not lose because she is a woman.  If my scoring is right, Harris would win.  But not because she is a Black woman.

[Suckrates]

                                            

 

                                                                                                                    

[Riobard]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

… even under our current circumstances with a lying, dictatorial Trump looming, do you think Americans will elect a Black, female President, instead of an  OLD crazy, white male. ?

This underscores my point.

Analogy: inimical divorce and child(ren) caught in the middle. You can’t change family structure easily because combative divorce is the endpoint of something idealized that commenced promisingly. But you can shift the political narrative from reductive single-choice figureheads to the notion of solid extended political family, obviating the primacy of figurehead choice. All the possible but uncertain in big win terms figurehead backup shortlist, imbued with a synthesis of positives, is already embedded in a Biden candidacy. 

A strong collective with a now arbitrary incumbent figurehead may be the best compromise, perhaps even just transiently for the upcoming term, because internal post-regicide lack of consensus will persist, merely transferring the focus of deficiencies. Maybe better to stick with Biden’s deficiencies; they are pretty clear, developmental, ambiguous (thus, posing take-side bind) and present a challenge for haters to make up in elaborate fakery.

Trump’s extended political family is uniformly hoodwinked into consensus; unification predicated on insanity is looking pretty relatively good while the other side divides and conquers itself. That said, a strong overall opponent collective offers an appealing option to leadership resting squarely on an iconoclast’s shoulders. Don’t pit a weakly branded individual against an iconoclast. Counter it with a loud coordinated chorus; neither conductor nor choir need to have primacy.

[Riobard]

For debate coaching suggestions. Trump has logorrhoea, strategically or non-volitionally is irrelevant. Biden needs to judiciously command the rules when Trump babbles during Biden’s time. He can do this by simplifying his content to 25% and speaking at half the speed, giving him time and wiggle room to rule the stage dynamics. The content is repetitive and now less important than delivery. If it were me, I’d hold up a yellow card when rudely interrupted if the mods are too stupid and lazy at enforcement. He might add something like: “At a point of inflection in our history when team work is more essential than ever, how do you actively listen to advisers when speaking simultaneously over them? I say this rhetorically in a bid to assure your brief silence”,  or “Good job (where merited), you gave me the courtesy of keeping silent … oh no no no now (upon activating bombastic narcissism) you were doing so well”. 

Drop the drinking disinfectant reference. It’s old and lives in the context of blathering that non-supporters grasp and supporters don’t care about. 

And get Harris to debate-coach Biden, Reversed role plays. And make sure Biden acknowledges her; the idea of pooled resources. “Our two heads are better than one; we realized for this debate a parental-type strategy was called for. We aim, in fact, to convince the least persuaded person in the auditorium that we’re the best fit.”

Teach Biden to demonstrate active listening to Trump through silence, the ground rule, looking at him not away, nodding and a few quizzical mug expressions that convey ‘get him’. Drop the lopsided grin; it’s not mocking enough and suggests amusement without sadness. 

[Riobard]

My worry about Biden’s next debate is that PrEP won’t supplant PEP. 

[Suckrates]

2 hours ago, Riobard said:

For debate coaching suggestions. Trump has logorrhoea, strategically or non-volitionally is irrelevant. Biden needs to judiciously command the rules when Trump babbles during Biden’s time. He can do this by simplifying his content to 25% and speaking at half the speed, giving him time and wiggle room to rule the stage dynamics. The content is repetitive and now less important than delivery. If it were me, I’d hold up a yellow card when rudely interrupted if the mods are too stupid and lazy at enforcement. He might add something like: “At a point of inflection in our history when team work is more essential than ever, how do you actively listen to advisers when speaking simultaneously over them? I say this rhetorically in a bid to assure your brief silence”,  or “Good job (where merited), you gave me the courtesy of keeping silent … oh no no no now (upon activating bombastic narcissism) you were doing so well”. 

Drop the drinking disinfectant reference. It’s old and lives in the context of blathering that non-supporters grasp and supporters don’t care about. 

And get Harris to debate-coach Biden, Reversed role plays. And make sure Biden acknowledges her; the idea of pooled resources. “Our two heads are better than one; we realized for this debate a parental-type strategy was called for. We aim, in fact, to convince the least persuaded person in the auditorium that we’re the best fit.”

Teach Biden to demonstrate active listening to Trump through silence, the ground rule, looking at him not away, nodding and a few quizzical mug expressions that convey ‘get him’. Drop the lopsided grin; it’s not mocking enough and suggests amusement without sadness. 

Nothing can suppress Bidens one downfall, his AGE...  There is no doubt that onstage he will continue to have gaffs, stumbles and forgetfulness...and honestly, he just appears to be an OLD man....  All the hair dye and makeup just seems to make Trump look and seem more youthful.   Biden can be coached to the teeth,  but Age will always get the best of him,   so Dems need to abandon the "wait and see" approach and make a final, definitive move.  NOW !

[Suckrates]

                                                                      

                                                             

 

                                                             

 

                                                                     

 

                                                                                     

[Riobard]

I’ve had a few encounters in my lifetime with older folks that present terribly simply because age exacerbates flaws that would otherwise be more probably overlooked. My first a Maths teacher with a PhD in senior year high school a half-century ago, my most recent a hunched-over shuffling medical specialist. Neither of them subject to functioning, high functioning in fact evident, in a vacuum. Looks can be deceiving. Even so, a 50% corpse trumps the alternative. 

[JKane]

[Stable Genius]

What an exciting election this would become if Biden gracefully bowed out, released his delegates and pledged to support the new nominee. The DFL convention would be one for the history books. We'd see a wave of new and switched voters. It could very well turn the tide in the presidential race and certainly help immensely down-ballot.

[stevenkesslar]

It seems now almost impossible for Biden to stay in the race.  

There was some recent poll Harry Enten was blabbing about on CNN a few weeks ago showing a majority of Democrats want Biden to stay in the race.  Biden certainly used that to argue this was just about elitists picking on him, not regular Democrats.

But there are now multiple polls, one Ipsos and one the AP/NORC poll above, showing 2 in 3 Democrats want Biden out.  You can't win an election when two-thirds of your own party would prefer not to vote for you!

Schumer apparently told him he should drop out this weekend, according to ABC.  Pelosi seems to be kind of saying, "President Biden is dropping out of the race, and he needs to decide when he is going to decide that."  Politics is a team sport.  And if your team is increasingly making it clear they are  no longer is with you, there's not much Biden can do.

By the way, 51 % of Independents want Trump to drop out,  too.  If Biden does drop out, that becomes an immediate problem for Trump.

[Mavica]

It saddens me to say:  President Biden will not be re-elected.  Vice President Harris ... were she the Presidential candidate ... would not be elected President.

[stevenkesslar]

Pelosi told Biden: You’re dragging down Democrats

Quote

One Pelosi ally said it was possible she would press Biden publicly to give up his spot atop the Democratic ticket.  “The speaker does not want to call on him to resign, but she will do everything in her power to make sure it happens,” this person said, referring to Biden quitting the race.

 

Here's today's pop quiz for politics junkies.

In her entire career, how many life and death political fights has Nancy Pelosi actually lost?

Excuse me.  Oh.  The Divine Miss Graham has something she'd like to say.

[Stable Genius]

Look on the bright side: Now Biden can go for a ride in a completely enclosed SUV, unmasked, with his Secret Service detail just so he can waive at adoring fans.

Oh, wait. Only a pathologically narcissistic sociopath would do that.

[unicorn]

From what I've heard, Michelle Obama has the best chance to defeat Trump. Shouldn't they pick whomever has the best chance? I wonder if she'd step up to the plate if asked.

[RockyRoadTravel]

16 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

It seems now almost impossible for Biden to stay in the race.  

There was some recent poll Harry Enten was blabbing about on CNN a few weeks ago showing a majority of Democrats want Biden to stay in the race.  Biden certainly used that to argue this was just about elitists picking on him, not regular Democrats.

But there are now multiple polls, one Ipsos and one the AP/NORC poll above, showing 2 in 3 Democrats want Biden out.  You can't win an election when two-thirds of your own party would prefer not to vote for you!

Schumer apparently told him he should drop out this weekend, according to ABC.  Pelosi seems to be kind of saying, "President Biden is dropping out of the race, and he needs to decide when he is going to decide that."  Politics is a team sport.  And if your team is increasingly making it clear they are  no longer is with you, there's not much Biden can do.

By the way, 51 % of Independents want Trump to drop out,  too.  If Biden does drop out, that becomes an immediate problem for Trump.

Amongst the stats you posted, the most telling one to me is that 86% of Democrats want Trump to continue as the Republican candidate for President. A majority of Americans may be nervous about Biden's age, but a majority of Americans hate Trump, his incompetence, his hate-spewing name calling and threats of violence.  

[EmmetK]

The dems are in total disarray. Keep Dementia Joe? Dump Dementia Joe? What to do about Cackles?
Meanwhile, the GOP is more united than ever. Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis all spoke glowingly of Donald Trump.

This election will be a Trump landslide. If you don't believe me, ask Botox Pelosi, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, Pencil-Neck Schiff, Hakeem SEKOU Jeffries, etc.

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

     

[RockyRoadTravel]

28 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

The dems are in total disarray. Keep Dementia Joe? Dump Dementia Joe? What to do about Cackles?
Meanwhile, the GOP is more united than ever. Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis all spoke glowingly of Donald Trump.

This election will be a Trump landslide. If you don't believe me, ask Botox Pelosi, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, Pencil-Neck Schiff, Hakeem SEKOU Jeffries, etc.

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

     

Six attempts to insult people you don't know.  Is there an MAGA Award for that behavior?  The Excremee

[Suckrates]

16 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

The dems are in total disarray. Keep Dementia Joe? Dump Dementia Joe? What to do about Cackles?
Meanwhile, the GOP is more united than ever. Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis all spoke glowingly of Donald Trump.

This election will be a Trump landslide. If you don't believe me, ask Botox Pelosi, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, Pencil-Neck Schiff, Hakeem SEKOU Jeffries, etc.

TRUMP/VANCE 2024
MAGA

     

Haley, DeSantis ?????      What a friggin joke.   Not a single GOP member gas any credibility .   They are all flip floppin around and adopting positions to support narratives that better their positions.   Haley and DeSantis KNEW Trump would make them toast if they didnt fallen in line.  so they flipped from criticizing Trump to anointing him, just as Vance is doing.   PHONY Assholes.  Most non-MAGA Americans see right thru them.  The fact that it doesnt penetrate you proves the depth and seriousness of your sickness.   And the very fact you keep pushing this narrative that anyone in the GOP is normal or Trustworthy says more about YOU than them.  But you are not dangerous, just a fool...   Americans that dont dress like Trump or wear ear bandages, or dress in red/white/blue clown costumes and stupid hats know the danger of Trump/Vance.

Lets see what derrogative knick-name we can come up with for YOU. other than MAGA Crackpot ? 

[Suckrates]

31 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Amongst the stats you posted, the most telling one to me is that 86% of Democrats want Trump to continue as the Republican candidate for President. A majority of Americans may be nervous about Biden's age, but a majority of Americans hate Trump, his incompetence, his hate-spewing name calling and threats of violence.  

@RockyRoadTravel, I think you misread the poll ?   The 86% is Dems wanting Trump to drop out for a diff candidate. 

[RockyRoadTravel]

5 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

@RockyRoadTravel, I think you misread the poll ?   The 86% is Dems wanting Trump to drop out for a diff candidate. 

You're right. I made a mistake. I've corrected the mistake now. 

I'm doing what the New York Times does, and FOX opinion never does.  Admit a mistake and correcting it.