Harris and Whitmer could make a winning ticket

[stevenkesslar]

Opinion: Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer could make a winning ticket for Democrats

Great piece arguing for a Harris/Whitmer ticket.  The author ticks off all my reasons for thinking it makes sense.  In one word:  "Michigan."  In a sentence:

Quote

This would shift the conversation away from a party scrambling in the final months before the election to one that could move the nation forward.

I've been reading lots of articles, mostly by fact-free cultists but also from some Democrats, saying Harris is a shitty debater.

They must not have watched Harris on debate night deftly explaining away Biden's own incoherence.

Granted, in 2020 Mike Pence got the sympathy vote since a fly landed on his head.  😉  Nevertheless three polls says Harris won that debate.  A Morning Consult poll said she won 51/40.   A CNN poll said she won 59/38. 

538 asked a bunch of questions, and found that Kamala's approval rating among viewers of the debate in 2020 increased from 45 % before the debate to 51 % after.  Her disapproval rating went from 40 % before to 41 % after.  Asked whose performance was "very good or somewhat good", 69 % said Harris's performance met that standard and 60 % said Pence's performance did.  Asked how well they did outlining their policies, 62 % said Kamala did "very good or somewhat good" and 44 % said Pence did the same.  More relevant to 2024, only 33 % said Trump's performance was "very good or somewhat good" in the first 2020 Presidential debate.  So much for Kamala being an easy debate target for Trump.

Presidential Historian: Dropping Biden Won't Help Democrats

That's Lichtman yet again in a brand new WSJ piece.  Obviously lots of serious journalists recognize his track record and are asking his opinion.  That headline gets it right.  If you buy his Keys, dropping Biden can not do anything to help Democrats.  But they can do it in a way that also won't hurt Democrats.  Lichtman says again that Biden resigning so that Harris can run as incumbent and be selected without a divisive intraparty brawl keeps the same incumbency key and party contest key safe for Democrats.

Ezra Klein had a piece in the New York Times today praising Jim Clyburn's idea of a so-called "mini-primary" if Biden drops out. I found that interesting, and clever on Clyburn's part.  In my view of the world, Clyburn single-handedly choreographed the election of Biden in 2020 by bringing him back from the dead in South Carolina.  He also pushed Biden to choose Kamala as his Veep.  He is now making it clear that if Biden is not the nominee, he's with Kamala.  I think Pelosi and Clyburn are the wise ones in the room.  If Biden is pushed out, they will likely be among the top Democrats delivering the message in private.  And they will choreograph something that looks competitive to chose his replacement, but is mainly designed to keep the party unified behind Harris and against Trump.  

[RockyRoadTravel]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

Opinion: Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer could make a winning ticket for Democrats

Great piece arguing for a Harris/Whitmer ticket.  The author ticks off all my reasons for thinking it makes sense.  In one word:  "Michigan."  In a sentence:

I've been reading lots of articles, mostly by fact-free cultists but also from some Democrats, saying Harris is a shitty debater.

They must not have watched Harris on debate night deftly explaining away Biden's own incoherence.

Granted, in 2020 Mike Pence got the sympathy vote since a fly landed on his head.  😉  Nevertheless three polls says Harris won that debate.  A Morning Consult poll said she won 51/40.   A CNN poll said she won 59/38. 

538 asked a bunch of questions, and found that Kamala's approval rating among viewers of the debate in 2020 increased from 45 % before the debate to 51 % after.  Her disapproval rating went from 40 % before to 41 % after.  Asked whose performance was "very good or somewhat good", 69 % said Harris's performance met that standard and 60 % said Pence's performance did.  Asked how well they did outlining their policies, 62 % said Kamala did "very good or somewhat good" and 44 % said Pence did the same.  More relevant to 2024, only 33 % said Trump's performance was "very good or somewhat good" in the first 2020 Presidential debate.  So much for Kamala being an easy debate target for Trump.

Presidential Historian: Dropping Biden Won't Help Democrats

That's Lichtman yet again in a brand new WSJ piece.  Obviously lots of serious journalists recognize his track record and are asking his opinion.  That headline gets it right.  If you buy his Keys, dropping Biden can not do anything to help Democrats.  But they can do it in a way that also won't hurt Democrats.  Lichtman says again that Biden resigning so that Harris can run as incumbent and be selected without a divisive intraparty brawl keeps the same incumbency key and party contest key safe for Democrats.

Ezra Klein had a piece in the New York Times today praising Jim Clyburn's idea of a so-called "mini-primary" if Biden drops out. I found that interesting, and clever on Clyburn's part.  In my view of the world, Clyburn single-handedly choreographed the election of Biden in 2020 by bringing him back from the dead in South Carolina.  He also pushed Biden to choose Kamala as his Veep.  He is now making it clear that if Biden is not the nominee, he's with Kamala.  I think Pelosi and Clyburn are the wise ones in the room.  If Biden is pushed out, they will likely be among the top Democrats delivering the message in private.  And they will choreograph something that looks competitive to chose his replacement, but is mainly designed to keep the party unified behind Harris and against Trump.  

If Biden quits and Harris runs as the Presidential candidate. What happens to Gavin Newsom?  Same issue as Trump/Rubio, both Newsom and Harris are from the same state which would cancel California's electoral college votes.  In 2028 does he campaign against a sitting President or wait until 2032 when he's 64.  I've noticed he's been a super fan of Biden's, and I'm thinking there's an element of self-interest there.  

If it's Harris, I'm thinking Harris/Shapiro, representing a "rust belt" state. 

And unrelated to anything, Ezra Klein, such tasty looking lips 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

I've noticed he's been a super fan of Biden's, and I'm thinking there's an element of self-interest there. 

I agree.

I like Newsom.  He's my Guv.  But a Harris/Newsom ticket makes no sense, for a whole bunch of reasons.  I've assumed for years Newsom's actions have been anchored to positioning himself for 2028  [or 2024, had Biden not run].  It's the weird thing about politics.  For him to win in 2028, it probably means Biden or Harris have to lose in 2024.  And if that happens, he'd be a very viable candidate in 2028 I think.  But if Harris is the nominee, and she wins, I can't see Newsom challenging her in 2028 if she sought a second term.  But that is a whole bunch of hypotheticals.

Harris/Shapiro would be a good pick, too.  And if I go by today's polls, PA is a slightly harder win than MI.  That said, I think two women on the ticket would be exciting.  Particularly with old gross grabby hands on the top of the MAGA ballot.

Speaking of cognitive decline, I am schizo on this topic.

The rational part of me thinks Lichtman is right, and running Harris without letting her be the incumbent (meaning Biden does not resign) is just one more possible nail in the Democrats' coffin.  

The emotional part of me feels that Biden/Whitmer would completely change the dynamics of the race, in a positive way, and give Democrats the energy and actual excitement they're lacking.  For sure, she would be better able than Biden to articulate a vision of change and what we need to fight for.

Quote

And unrelated to anything, Ezra Klein, such tasty looking lips 

TMI.  😉

[RockyRoadTravel]

22 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

I agree.

I like Newsom.  He's my Guv.  But a Harris/Newsom ticket makes no sense, for a whole bunch of reasons.  I've assumed for years Newsom's actions have been anchored to positioning himself for 2028  [or 2024, had Biden not run].  It's the weird thing about politics.  For him to win in 2028, it probably means Biden or Harris have to lose in 2024.  And if that happens, he'd be a very viable candidate in 2028 I think.  But if Harris is the nominee, and she wins, I can't see Newsom challenging her in 2028 if she sought a second term.  But that is a whole bunch of hypotheticals.

Harris/Shapiro would be a good pick, too.  And if I go by today's polls, PA is a slightly harder win than MI.  That said, I think two women on the ticket would be exciting.  Particularly with old gross grabby hands on the top of the MAGA ballot.

Speaking of cognitive decline, I am schizo on this topic.

The rational part of me thinks Lichtman is right, and running Harris without letting her be the incumbent (meaning Biden does not resign) is just one more possible nail in the Democrats' coffin.  

The emotional part of me feels that Biden/Whitmer would completely change the dynamics of the race, in a positive way, and give Democrats the energy and actual excitement they're lacking.  For sure, she would be better able than Biden to articulate a vision of change and what we need to fight for.

 

Typo on names in your last paragraph 

[stevenkesslar]

In terms of reporters, you can have Ezra.   I'd happily take Josh Barro.  But he's already taken.

3 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Typo on names in your last paragraph 

As I said, cognitive decline.  I changed it.

I'm so old that I still have a crush on Dean Cain.  Not in his present incarnation as a right wing Fox News guy, but in his early days as mild-mannered reporter Clark Kent.  In my imagination there are other things CK did not do quite so mildly.  But that would be TMI again.

 

[Pete1111]

I realize Elex Michaelson has aged out for most of you, yet he'll always have my heart for his interview with gubernatorial candidate Caitlyn Jenner.  He asked Caitlyn to outline her budget as governor.  Nothing but crickets.  Her campaign was all cheese whiz.

Here he is with Adam, below.

 

Clyburn is why we have Biden.  I guess Biden is no longer useful to him.  Clyburn's grandson was all in for Buttigieg, last cycle.  I doubt Grandpa Clyburn will swing that way.

 

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

This discussion has deteriorated to posts of hot reporters, I'm not entirely opposed. 

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

This discussion has deteriorated to posts of hot reporters, I'm not entirely opposed. 

Well then, I'll bring it back to Morning Joe.  Handsome in his own way.  But I'd never make a move on him.  No one fucks with Mika.

President Biden Calls MSNBC's "Morning Joe" Monday: "I'm Testing Myself," "It Drives Me Nuts People Talking About This!"

That's the most on message and on fire I have heard Biden in a long time.  I keep going back to 1948 - inflation, unpopular incumbent - as one of for models of this year.  Biden in this interview fully embraces the "Give Em Hell Joe" he needs to be.

I see this as a potential win-win rather than the lose-lose a lot of pundits see.  The age issue has been simmering and then boiling for a few years.  So now it is out in the open.  And everything that can be said is being said.  Biden doesn't look or sound weak and fragile right now.  While it would have been better if this Joe Biden showed up for the debate, it's now on him to prove he can stay this way.  If he can't, we have Kick Ass Kamala as our back up.   

The polls do say something like 2 in 3 Democrats want Biden to stay in.  So he knows he is not wrong in basing his message on the base.  It remains to be seen how Independents view this.  But Biden may be able to do what Trump did in 2023:  take all the incoming, prove he is tough, secure his base, and then try to build out from there.

 

[Pete1111]

The Harris's and Buttigieg's were pals on the campaign trail, so Kamala might be drawn to Pete as her VP.  But a Whitmer/Harris ticket does sound exciting.

Next cycle?  

For now I'm stickin' with Lichtman.

 

 

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

When I see Gavin Newsom campaign - man he could skewer the defeated former President - I can't help think he's campaign for 2028.  

The defeated former President was relatively silent immediately after the debate, letting the press coverage be about Biden's bad night, rather than the constant lies Trump was telling.  No wonder he rose in the polls.

Trump is talking again.  His polls number will likely go down a bit again. Trump does best when he shuts up.  

[RockyRoadTravel]

Karin Jean Pierre has got to go. 

[Suckrates]

6 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Karin Jean Pierre has got to go. 

I was just watching her do the daily press conference and was thinking the SAME thing.  She seems veiled and insincere.   And lately she is getting hostile with reporters for their questions seeking info about Biden etc....  Not a good way to handle things during this volatile time.

 

As for Witmer, she was on The View today, and said she really had no interest in the VP spot.  she is happy and fulfilled as Michigan Governor. 

[stevenkesslar]

On 7/7/2024 at 8:10 PM, RockyRoadTravel said:

If it's Harris, I'm thinking Harris/Shapiro, representing a "rust belt" state. 

You called that one right.

Poll finds Biden damaged by debate; with Harris and Clinton best positioned to win

Quote

A Democratic ticket led by Harris as the presidential nominee and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate also fared well, besting Trump by two percentage points, 42 percent to 40 percent. But a Harris-led ticket with Whitmer as her VP nominee is 2 percentage points behind Trump, 39 to 41 percent.

Mostly what these polls mean to me is that people tend to turn to fantasy candidates like Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton because they don't know the alternatives - other than Kamala - very well.  So even if Harris/Shapiro wins 42/40 in one poll versus Biden/Harris losing 42/43 to Trump in the same poll, it's all very close.  If this was supposed to be a fatal blow to Biden, the polls don't show it.  And if Harris were to be the nominee I doubt either Whitmer or Shapiro would make a big difference outside their home states.

My read of this is that the only two options in play are Biden remains and we stick a cattle prod up his ass for the next four months, or he resigns and Harris becomes POTUS, which would cement her lead in being the replacement nominee.  Either way, Democrats can unify around an incumbent who was chosen in the 2024 primary.

We'll never know what would have happened had Biden announced he would not run last year.  But in his Conversations series last year, Bill Kristol and A.B. Stoddard speculated that both Nancy Pelosi's resignation as House leader and Biden's decision not to seek re-election would lead to divisive food fights between progressives and moderates.  Never happened.  So the glass half full view of this is that Democrats avoided the kind of ugly fights that could have split the party.  However this gets settled, there is plenty of time tounify around either Biden or Harris.

Meanwhile, it's not clear that all those primary voters who preferred Haley will in fact fall in line behind Trump.  So Republicans have unity problems of their own.  

As far as the polls go, it is now clear that Biden is no worse off than Reagan or Obama were after blowing their first debates.  They all lost a few points, and then gained them back.  For Obama and Reagan, whose flub was also tinged with chatter about dementia, the episode served as a wake up call to a lazy incumbent who was used to not being challenged very much.  Biden is definitely awake now.

There was also lots of chatter last Summer that when Biden should have been flying all over the country rallying the troops and spreading his message, he was hanging out at the beach with Jill wasting time.  It does seem like he kind of wants to have his Presidency and enjoy his retirement, too.  Bad idea.  Arguably, if he does survive this mess, it is better that he get a wake up call during Summer so that he knows he has to work his ass off every day moving forward.  We'll see.

 

[Suckrates]

11 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

You called that one right.

Poll finds Biden damaged by debate; with Harris and Clinton best positioned to win

Mostly what these polls mean to me is that people tend to turn to fantasy candidates like Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton because they don't know the alternatives - other than Kamala - very well.  So even if Harris/Shapiro wins 42/40 in one poll versus Biden/Harris losing 42/43 to Trump in the same poll, it's all very close.  If this was supposed to be a fatal blow to Biden, the polls don't show it.  And if Harris were to be the nominee I doubt either Whitmer or Shapiro would make a big difference outside their home states.

My read of this is that the only two options in play are Biden remains and we stick a cattle prod up his ass for the next four months, or he resigns and Harris becomes POTUS, which would cement her lead in being the replacement nominee.  Either way, Democrats can unify around an incumbent who was chosen in the 2024 primary.

We'll never know what would have happened had Biden announced he would not run last year.  But in his Conversations series last year, Bill Kristol and A.B. Stoddard speculated that both Nancy Pelosi's resignation as House leader and Biden's decision not to seek re-election would lead to divisive food fights between progressives and moderates.  Never happened.  So the glass half full view of this is that Democrats avoided the kind of ugly fights that could have split the party.  However this gets settled, there is plenty of time tounify around either Biden or Harris.

Meanwhile, it's not clear that all those primary voters who preferred Haley will in fact fall in line behind Trump.  So Republicans have unity problems of their own.  

As far as the polls go, it is now clear that Biden is no worse off than Reagan or Obama were after blowing their first debates.  They all lost a few points, and then gained them back.  For Obama and Reagan, whose flub was also tinged with chatter about dementia, the episode served as a wake up call to a lazy incumbent who was used to not being challenged very much.  Biden is definitely awake now.

There was also lots of chatter last Summer that when Biden should have been flying all over the country rallying the troops and spreading his message, he was hanging out at the beach with Jill wasting time.  It does seem like he kind of wants to have his Presidency and enjoy his retirement, too.  Bad idea.  Arguably, if he does survive this mess, it is better that he get a wake up call during Summer so that he knows he has to work his ass off every day moving forward.  We'll see.

 

Josh Shapiro doesnt have as wide a reach and Q-score as Witmer.   Afterall she had a miurder plot planned for her.  I would have to look up Shapiros accomplishments. 

[RockyRoadTravel]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

Josh Shapiro doesnt have as wide a reach and Q-score as Witmer.   Afterall she had a miurder plot planned for her.  I would have to look up Shapiros accomplishments. 

Effectively governing in the face of obstructionist Republicans. Just what Washington DC needs. 

[RockyRoadTravel]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

You called that one right.  

I couldn't quite hear what you said.  Could you repeat that? 

[stevenkesslar]

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

You called that one right.

 

41 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

I couldn't quite hear what you said.  Could you repeat that? 

[EmmetK]

Emerson has Whitmer trailing Trump by 10.
The only thing Whitmer would add to a Harris ticket is another nail in the dem coffin and a female without an annoying cackle.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/

TRUMP 2024
MAGA

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

18 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

Stop (don't stop). You're making me blush 

[stevenkesslar]

5 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Emerson has Whitmer trailing Trump by 10.
The only thing Whitmer would add to a Harris ticket is another nail in the dem coffin and a female without an annoying cackle.

Well, I'll give you this.  That is factually correct.  Sometimes you can get the facts right, even if you have zero ability to analyze what they might possibly mean.

What's clear from a series of polls is that lots of people have no idea who Whitmer or Shapiro are.  In a country where the MAGA faithful believe that unemployment is at a 50 year high and the S & P 500 is down for the year, what are we to expect?  It's not reality.  It's a cult.  A lying, cop beating, crime loving, democracy hating cult.  Murder and violent crime were down over 10 % in 2023 under Biden, who reversed Trump's 30 % murder spike in 2020.  But these facts don't matter.  Beating the shit out of cops to stop an election doesn't matter.  It's just a cult.  You'll believe whatever you want.

The main difference between how Biden does against Trump and the other lesser knows in that way more voters are undecided about people they don't know, as the survey you posted but can't intellectually grasp demonstrates.  Biden v. Trump is 46/43, with 11 % undecided.  Biden v Shapiro is 46/38, with 16 % undecided.  The difference is not that Trump does better against Shapiro.  It's that many people have no clue who the Guv Of Pennsylvania is.  Since you have a very troubled relationship with facts, @EmmetK, surely you can empathize.

Here's another fact that matters.  When Emerson pressed undecided voters to say who they are leaning to, the Biden-Trump race is tied 50/50.  So much for Dementia Joe being demented, or politically dead.  Even after a massive Biden fuck up, voters just don't want the stench of Trump.

These latest polls have probably helped slow momentum to Kamala.  In the Emerson poll you cited, Biden does 46/43, but Kamala does 49/43.  A Redfield and Wilton poll shows Biden/Trump 42/43, versus Harris/Trump 37/44.  Meanwhile, Bendix and Amandi  shows Biden v. Trump 42/43, and Harris v. Trump 42/41.   So Harris does either about the same or a little bit worse in horse races against Trump, compared to Biden.  No reason - at least based on polls - to think that switching from Biden to Harris will make some dramatic difference for Democrats, either way. 

Although what's not clear is whether Harris has the same recognition as Biden or Trump.  My guess is there's some voters who have no idea who Kamala Harris is.

[RockyRoadTravel]

10 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Well, I'll give you this.  That is factually correct.  Sometimes you can get the facts right,

Often times my best conversations are with conservatives who recognize a set of facts (and don't just cherry pick ones that support their preconceived bias) and just come to a different conclusion than I do - based on a set of real world facts. I value honest opinion.  Making shit up, as the defeated former President and his minions do daily, undermines representative democracy, civil society and the rule of law.