Biden bloodbath

[stevenkesslar]

28 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

@EmmetK I know you like to obsess on individual polls. And maybe you're in the process of posting this one - so sorry if I scooped you.  It's just an individual poll so it might not mean anything - right Emmett?  Individual polls aren't a trend - right Emmett?  Harris leads Trump 44% - 42%. 

 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

I think that may answer your question that you asked in another thread:

Quote

I'm speculating if part of the disapproval ratings of Biden/Harris was representative of unease from both sides of the political spectrum?  And will there be an unexpected bump up in approval rates now that enthusiasm seems to be moving to the Democrats? So far Harris is speaking more directly on campaign issues and what another term in office would work towards 

I'll get to approval ratings in a minute.

In terms of horse race polls, what has been really obvious but not necessarily explicable is that Biden has badly lagged every swing state Democrat running for Senate.  So at some point it seemed like it really does have to be about Joe Biden.  And it's not like down ballot candidates are not blamed for things like inflation or immigration.  So the likely suspect was that it really was about Biden's age.

You pointed to approval ratings.  To repeat what I said in a different post, disapproval ratings may matter as much, or more.  And while Trump has mostly been stuck at no less than 53 % average disapproval for the whole last four years (and before), Harris has been on a downward trajectory this year.  In the last few months she has briefly fallen a tad lower than 50 % disapproval.  So it makes sense in theory at least that she might have an advantage with voters who don't approve of her, but definitely disapprove of Trump.

If there was an artificially low ceiling on Biden, maybe  Harris has now lifted that burden off him.  The RCP average now has Harris 1.7 points behind Trump.  It's really way too early to tell what impact this has on national polls, let alone in battleground states.  But the snap verdict is good for Harris.  That 1.7 average includes a number of polls taken before Sunday.  The one @EmmetK cited from Harris (the pollster) was done last Friday and Saturday, right after the RNC attacks on Harris and Biden but before Biden resigned.

So if you only count the ones that were done at least in part after Biden resigned, I think you have Yahoo at a tie, Morning Consult and Quinnipiac at Trump +2, Reuters at Harris +2, NPR at Trump +1.  So that is +0.6 Trump average over five polls.  If you only count the two that were done fully after Biden's resignation, I think you get Reuters for Harris +2 and NPR for Trump +1.  So Harris actually has the narrowest of leads.

Basically, it is a new race and it appears to be tied in polls nationally.

I keep wanting to mention that Lichtman says all these polls mean nothing.  The exciting thing is that it's now virtually certain that the DNC will be a Chicago love fest that will be a vehicle for messaging what Harris and Democrats want to fight for.  So based on his preview of his guess, Democrats are down 3 keys for certain and 2 more likely.  5 keys down predicts success for Harris and the incumbent party.

Viewed differently, the three times when incumbent parties ran candidates that were not incumbents, but when the party was unified, that candidate won either two or three out of three times.  Hoover won in 1928, Bush won in 1988, and Gore lost (or won) in 2000.  That last is of course what Democrats should worry most about.  The swing states, and the electoral college.

[RockyRoadTravel]

5 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

I think that may answer your question that you asked in another thread:

I'll get to approval ratings in a minute.

In terms of horse race polls, what has been really obvious but not necessarily explicable is that Biden has badly lagged every swing state Democrat running for Senate.  So at some point it seemed like it really does have to be about Joe Biden.  And it's not like down ballot candidates are not blamed for things like inflation or immigration.  So the likely suspect was that it really was about Biden's age.

If there was an artificially low ceiling on Biden, Harris has now lifted that burden off him.  The RCP average now has Harris 1.7 points behind Trump.  It's really way too early to tell what impact this has on national polls, let alone in battleground states.  But the snap verdict is good for Harris.  That 1.7 average includes a number of polls take before Sunday.  The one @EmmetK cited from Harris (the pollster) was done last Friday and Saturday, right after the RNC attacks on Harris and Biden. 

So if you only count the ones that were done at least in part on the 21st or 22nd, you have Yahoo at a tie, Morning Consult and Quinnipiac at Trump +2, Reuters at Harris +2, NPR at Trump +1.  So that is +0.6 Trump average over five polls.  If you only count the two that were done fully after Biden's resignation, I think you get Reuters for Harris +2 and NPR for Trump +1.  So Harris actually has the narrowest of leads.

Basically, it is a new race and it appears to be tied in polls.

I keep wanting to mention that Lichtman says all these polls mean nothing.  The exciting thing is that it's now virtually certain that the DNC will be a Chicago love fest that will be a vehicle for messaging what Harris and Democrats want to fight for.  So based on his preview of his guess, Democrats are down 3 keys for certain and 2 more likely.  5 keys down predicts success for Harris and the incumbent party.

Viewed differently, the three times when incumbent ran candidates that were not incumbents, but when the party was unified, that candidate won either two or three out of three times.  Hoover won in 1928, Bush won in 1988, and Gore lost (or won) in 2000.  That last is probably what Democrats should worry about.  The swing states, and the electoral college.

Rather than governing - they leave that to the Supreme Court - the GOP Representatives seem obsessed with creating media events for FOX News to drone on about to avoid mentioning the defeated former President's incompetence and his fraud and rape convictions - by a jury of his peers. Why does Tennessee have so many nutty Republicans elected? 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Rather than governing - they leave that to the Supreme Court - the GOP Representatives seem obsessed with creating media events for FOX News to drone on about to avoid mentioning the defeated former President's incompetence and his fraud and rape convictions - by a jury of his peers. Why does Tennessee have so many nutty Republicans elected? 

This is not Fox News.  But this is my favorite Republican reaction video of the day.  It answers the question:  what happens when smart White guys make dumb White guy arguments?

 

Some smart Republican consultant who used to work for Kevin McCarthy said on Halperin's podcast today that for the next few days Republicans should essentially let 1,000 shit bombs bloom, just to see what kind of shit might stick to Harris.  Makes sense to me.  So here is Tom Cotton, one of their best bomb throwers, making some of their shittiest arguments.

I think it proves that Sean Spicer, who knows a bit about communicating MAGAthink to America, is right.  These arguments about how Harris covered up what everybody knew about Biden's age, or she staged a coup, are just stupid and a waste of time.  Although I love it when Republicans talk about coup.

There is now a poll out that asks the question about Biden resigning.  68 % of voters, including most Democrats and 65 % of Independents, say Biden should "finish out his term as President".  Even 47 % of Republicans say that.  So this is a shit bomb they should stop throwing.  Unless they want the "coup" and "conspiracy of silence" talk to boomerang on them.  When did Donald Trump sexually abuse and commit fraud, and when did you guys know about it?

This does confirm that "San Francisco liberal" and "border czar" and "pro-crime" and "cop killer" are where the attacks will go, from the smart White guys at least.  The dumb old White guys with low mental acuity, like Trump, will go to racism and sexism and "dumb as bricks".

[RockyRoadTravel]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

This is not Fox News.  But this is my favorite Republican reaction video of the day.  It answers the question:  what happens when smart White guys make dumb White guy arguments?The dumb old White guys with low mental acuity, like Trump, will go to racism and sexism and "dumb as bricks".

Trump calling Harris dumb as bricks. Nonsense.  My dream would be to have Harris challenge Trump to appear on Celebrity Jeopardy with her.  Forget the debates, let's have her cream him on US State Capitols, or USA Constitutional Amendments, or Supreme Court Decisions, or USA Allies. 

[stevenkesslar]

37 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Trump calling Harris dumb as bricks. Nonsense.  My dream would be to have Harris challenge Trump to appear on Celebrity Jeopardy with her.  Forget the debates, let's have her cream him on US State Capitols, or USA Constitutional Amendments, or Supreme Court Decisions, or USA Allies. 

And whether he can remember the name of his wife.

 

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

And whether he can remember the name of his wife.

 

 

Please someone have the time and energy to start an on-line petition to have Harris and Trump appear on Celebrity Jeopardy before the election.  Please

Other topics: 10 Commandments, Bible Verses, New Testament/Old Testament 

[unicorn]

On 6/27/2024 at 9:19 PM, EmmetK said:

‘Biden is toast’

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

On 6/27/2024 at 9:19 PM, EmmetK said:

‘Biden is toast’

And here's where we are now.

Quote

The PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., is adding an additional $32 million of ad buys from now until Labor Day, totaling $70 million. The group is focusing its spending — totaling roughly $12 million a week — in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, according to details shared first with POLITICO.

The choice of states is interesting.   Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona were supposed to be in the bag.  Instead, they were supposed to be going after Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. 

Here's the new Emerson swing state poll:

Compare it to this poll, back in APRIL - in other words, when people thought Biden was doing okay and could win.

Harris is doing better right now than Biden was doing in April.

Arizona is her weakest state and immigration is her weakest issue.  Which is why I hope she picks Mark Kelly.  The other thing Kelly can do that I would not underestimate is go after Trump and Vance for being weak and feeble on America's defense.

Arizona and Georgia have more electoral votes combined than Pennsylvania.  Trump lacks the mental acuity to do anything other than lie, rant, and divide.  But Susie and Chris obviously want to block Harris two ways:  stop her in Pennsylvania, and stop her from replacing Pennsylvania with a Sun Belt strategy.

Harris should go for all three states.  There is every reason to think she can win all three.  Gallego is ahead in Arizona.  Casey is ahead in Pennsylvania.  Biden won Georgia, as did Ossoff and Warnock.

 

Trump is toast.

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Arizona is her weakest state and immigration is her weakest issue.  Which is why I hope she picks Mark Kelly.  The other thing Kelly can do that I would not underestimate is go after Trump and Vance for being weak and feeble on America's defense.

 

 

I go back and forth on Mark Kelly.  He's kind of a quiet guy, not sure if he's the campaigner that's needed at this moment. He looks good on paper on immigration and his appeal to the Southwest, but, does he look good on the campaign stage?

Do you remember who Hillary Clinton's vice-presidential candidate was? (Of course you do, you're a junkie.)  However, Tim Kaine was a boring candidate, probably boring was a choice that was made, I don't think that's the choice to make this time.  

Chris Cillizza has a short video out today about Biden's historical assessment that touches on the messaging aspect of the Presidency, it mirrored my thoughts on this governing AND campaign essential mix. 

[Stable Genius]

[unicorn]

Well, it's definitely too early to say "Trump is Toast" and ring the victory bells. The vice-presidential pick only affects results in that candidate's home state, so Harris would be wise to pick someone from Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. She'll definitely need at least one of those states. National polls are irrelevant with the electoral college system. What matters is the polls in the swing states, especially the populous ones. 

[Stable Genius]

[Suckrates]

17 minutes ago, Stable Genius said:

Recent photos of Trump show a "perfectly healed" flawless ear with no scar..... Such a sham !   

[Stable Genius]

The Orange Ogre at his 'press conference' today at MAL:

"Nobody died on 1/6"
"She had 1500 people at her rally and I could have had 100,000"
"They want to take away your guns"
"They want to take away your social security"
"Harris' move to candidate is anti-consitutional"

[stevenkesslar]

14 minutes ago, Stable Genius said:

The Orange Ogre at his 'press conference' today at MAL:

"Nobody died on 1/6"
"She had 1500 people at her rally and I could have had 100,000"
"They want to take away your guns"
"They want to take away your social security"
"Harris' move to candidate is anti-consitutional"

Most important thing, which you forgot.

His penis is bigger than hers.  

(And his ego.)

Why am I not surprised that the loser cry baby felon is whining?

Poor little rich rapist.

[Stable Genius]

Bankruptcy, rap sheet, rapist, bone spurs, coward, Project 2025; and it's only the second night of DNC!

I hope he has an ample supply of ketchup

[Marc in Calif]

On 7/26/2024 at 11:22 AM, unicorn said:

The vice-presidential pick only affects results in that candidate's home state, so Harris would be wise to pick someone from Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. 

Oh, how wrong you were about that particular analysis! 

The selection of Governor Tim Walz is actually galvanizing voters around the country. His addition to the ticket will "affect" many more states than just one. 

[unicorn]

12 hours ago, Marc in Calif said:

Oh, how wrong you were about that particular analysis! 

The selection of Governor Tim Walz is actually galvanizing voters around the country. His addition to the ticket will "affect" many more states than just one. 

Admittedly, I haven't read a study or academic treatise which discusses that particular issue. I briefly tried to look this up, and the studies seemed to be behind paywalls. If you have a reference to such a study, I'd be curious to read it. 

[Stable Genius]

[Goober]

On 8/21/2024 at 3:25 AM, Marc in Calif said:

Oh, how wrong you were about that particular analysis! 

The selection of Governor Tim Walz is actually galvanizing voters around the country. His addition to the ticket will "affect" many more states than just one. 

Tim Walz publicly proclaimed his love for his children at the DNC; something the trump children have longed to hear from their father for their entire lives.

[Suckrates]

1 hour ago, Goober said:

Tim Walz publicly proclaimed his love for his children at the DNC; something the trump children have longed to hear from their father for their entire lives.

 

"MY Dad's the GREATEST"....

 

 

"MY Dad's the WORST, a Liar, a Cheat, a Fraud, an Insurrectionist, a Felon, and those are his good qualities "......

[Goober]

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

 

"MY Dad's the GREATEST"....

 

 

"MY Dad's the WORST, a Liar, a Cheat, a Fraud, an Insurrectionist, a Felon, and those are his good qualities "......

Well, in trump's defense, it's reported that he really loves Ivanka's luscious and humongous tatas. And he personally knows for sure they're real. A father's love. It's really quite touching.

[Marc in Calif]

On 8/21/2024 at 12:37 PM, unicorn said:

Admittedly, I haven't read a study or academic treatise which discusses that particular issue. I briefly tried to look this up, and the studies seemed to be behind paywalls. If you have a reference to such a study, I'd be curious to read it. 

Sorry, but no study or academic treatise (!!) is going to tell you what's happening right now.

If you have any awareness at all of what's going on in the country today, you'd know that Governor Tim Walz has won over more than just the state of Minnesota. I believe that he'll add more to the ticket than any of the other VP candidates would have added. 

He certainly performs better than they do in front of audiences. Even Mayor Pete, excellent as he is, can't fire up a crowd like Walz does with policy stuff as well as homegrown folksy stuff. In political-speak, this is gold. And no "academic treatise" is going to prove that with statistics.

[Goober]

It would appear that the old, sometimes confused candidate with the stagnant base, Joe Biden, was actually replaced by another old, often confused candidate with a stagnant base, DonOLD Trump.

[Stable Genius]