Low season - who has numbers?

[ChristianPFC]

I can only compare the current situation to January 2010 and August 2009, but there is no denying that this is low season. Plenty of empty tables at Balcony and Telephone. But does anyone have any numbers? Occupation of hotels, number of tourists? Number of drinks sold per night in Boyztown or Sunee or Soi Twilight? Number of boys working in gogo-bars in high season and now? Average time between two offs?

[Gaybutton]

does anyone have any numbers?

I doubt it. I don't know of any kind of agency that keeps such statistics other than hotel occupancy and tourist arrival numbers. However, even when the TAT (Tourism Authority of Thailand) publishes those numbers, I'm very skeptical of the accuracy and honesty. The numbers they publish just don't jive with what anyone can see with their own eyes.

 

You don't need statistics, though, to easily see that numbers are way down. Using just the bars as an example, it wasn't very long ago that you could walk into any bar and find plenty of customers. Lately, however, even in high season you can still walk into a number of bars and find yourself to be the only customer. In some restaurants, where before you were lucky to get in without a reservation, now you see the waiters standing around forlornly hoping at least somebody will come in.

 

I haven't encountered a business of any kind recently that isn't complaining of low customer numbers and low sales. Even the businesses that are getting customers are complaining that people just are not spending the amounts they used to spend. Within the past year I've seen more bars and restaurants close their doors than I can remember ever in Thailand.

 

With the bars, it used to seem as soon as one closed, somebody would snatch it up almost immediately and reopen. These days, however, that doesn't seem to be happening nearly as much. Most bars I see close remain closed or I'm seeing long periods of time go by before anyone invests in reopening them.

 

In short, numbers or not, things are really tough right now, and the high season is still several months away.

 

One thing my group of friends has noticed, though, when it comes to restaurants, the better ones, good quality food, reasonable prices, good service, etc, are still usually quite busy.

[Guest gay_grampa]

I can only compare the current situation to January 2010 and August 2009, but there is no denying that this is low season. Plenty of empty tables at Balcony and Telephone. But does anyone have any numbers? Occupation of hotels, number of tourists? Number of drinks sold per night in Boyztown or Sunee or Soi Twilight? Number of boys working in gogo-bars in high season and now? Average time between two offs?

 

WHAT

I was in Soi 4, Friday night, with 2 friends and it was so crowded we could not get a table at 11pm at either bar you mention.

[Bob]

I don't know of any kind of agency that keeps such statistics other than hotel occupancy and tourist arrival numbers. However, even when the TAT (Tourism Authority of Thailand) publishes those numbers, I'm very skeptical of the accuracy and honesty. The numbers they publish just don't jive with what anyone can see with their own eyes.

 

Agree, TAT's numbers in my experience simply can't be believed. The only numbers occasionaly I see that seem a bit trustworthy are by a local hotel association (they seem to candidly discuss how low the numbers are when you'd think that they might not want to be that candid about it). I remember reading two articles in the same edition of the Chiangmai Mail last year when TAT reported that arrival numbers at the airport were dramatically up for the same month that a Bangkok hotel association was announcing that their numbers were down 17% (a rather huge drop business-wise) for the same month.

 

Based on what I've seen at least in Chiangmai, the tourist numbers have been steadily dropping since about 2004 (with the exception of one 2-3 month period when the Royal Ratchapruek exhibition was first opened). And one hears various reasons for the drop - the tsunami, the bird flu, the swine flu, air polution, the world-wide recession, and now the "political troubles" - but I think they really have no clue about the reasons and are just guessing. I've begun to wonder if all these issues (and other issues, perhaps) are beginning to have a cumulative effect and/or that a lot of travelers have "been there, done that" and are simply tired of what Thailand has to offer. Or maybe other places are doing a better job of promoting tourism. Heck if I know.

 

I've always wondered before about TAT's arrival numbers at the international airport - and whether those include only true foreigners or also include Thai citizens who have travelled abroad. If the latter is included, then it would make more sense to me to see less falang but higher arrivals (given carriers like Air Asia have arisen in the last decade and Thais are beginning to travel more because of the availability and lower cost). Again, I don't know but TAT's numbers have never made much sense to me.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

Last night a group of 6 of us went to Alois. We had a 7pm reservation. We were the only ones there. At about 8pm people starting coming in and there were 3-4 large groups by the time we left. The quality restaurants still do a reasonable business. Their set menu was amuse bouche, starter, soup, choice of chicken, John Dory or a pork dish, dessert and coffee or tea for 550 baht, no service added. Everyone was very satisfied with the food and the service is impeccable.

[Guest fountainhall]

Agree, TAT's numbers in my experience simply can't be believed.

Having worked as a consultant to one national Tourist Association in the region, I am well aware it employed statisticians to monitor data on a daily basis and then 'process' it in the most government friendly way. With funding for such agencies largely coming from governments, it is hardly surprising. I worked on one project where a senior officer sent data back to the statistics people because he felt the numbers as they stood would cause concern in the relevant government department. I imagine all such associations do the same.

 

Based on what I've seen at least in Chiangmai, the tourist numbers have been steadily dropping since about 2004

With all the new hotels that have opened in Chiang Mai in recent years, occupancy rates must be bordering on the desperate, I'd think. Have many hotels shut up shop?

 

Re airport passenger statistics, how do they 'count' passengers transferring from international to domestic and vice versa? Do they double count, I wonder?

[Guest]

Well, there's been a global economic downturn.

 

Then currency movements have made Thailand significantly more expensive for some of us.

 

Perhaps other countries in SE Asia start taking a share of the tourism market.

 

Also, what casual tourist would book a trip to Thailand a few months back when the red shirts were on the news every day?

[lexusgs]

Well, there's been a global economic downturn.

 

Then currency movements have made Thailand significantly more expensive for some of us.

 

Perhaps other countries in SE Asia start taking a share of the tourism market.

 

Also, what casual tourist would book a trip to Thailand a few months back when the red shirts were on the news every day?

 

Having visited Pattaya for 8 months at the same time of year(low season) over the last three years this low season seems no different from the previous years. Yes, some bars have closed but some deserve it. Customer value is the name of the game nowadays. If you want a busy place try visiting NAB for a few hours over the weekend. Absolutely packed out last night

[pong]

As I remember just having seen airport arrival stats (AOT-probably also the source for TAT) for june: about 108.000, from a 77/78.000 the month before. As throughout the 25+ years I visit LOS, may/june have always been the superlow, the following estimate )also AOT) that nr of visitors arriving would be in the 14/15 million bracket (barring any further unrest, of course), as high season will see higher nrs.

These are simply based on the arrival cards anyone has to fill out, and given off at immigration. Well over 90% of foreign visitors to LOS arrive via swampy. If you change onward to a domestic flight-you also arrive at swampy-for immigration stats. If you change international (and not on AirAsia), then you do not count, as you are in transit.

It was also like 3-5% more as june 2009.

I think it was the news section on thaivisa-but it may well have been some other site I (have to) perused this morning.

My feeling more and more the last 4-5 years are that the % of gays visiting is getting lower, perhaps even in absolute nrs.

[Guest fountainhall]

As I remember just having seen airport arrival stats (AOT-probably also the source for TAT) for june: about 108.000, from a 77/78.000 the month before. As throughout the 25+ years I visit LOS, may/june have always been the superlow, the following estimate )also AOT) that nr of visitors arriving would be in the 14/15 million bracket (barring any further unrest, of course), as high season will see higher nrs.

I really do not understand these numbers. If the AOT or TAT is predicting 14/15 million visitors, that's an average of well over 1 million per month. If two of the months - May and June - totalled (let's round it up to) 200,000, the rest of the year has to average at least 1.15 million per month. Even if January - March had been bumper months, April certainly was not due to the demonstrations and major tour group cancellations. July - September is also low season. So they must be expecting somewhere in the region of 2 million + per month from October onwards if the target is to be met. Impossible, in my view.

[Guest xiandarkthorne]

It's not just the figures from swampy that are taken into account. Don't forget that ther are also land-based routes into LOS.

 

In the south, for example, the immigration checkpoint is normally swamped on weekends (one reason I never enter Hatyai on Friday or Saturday) and quite busy on weekdays, too - Malaysians, Singaporeans, Indonesians, and the odd farang or three, surely add to the numbers.

 

I'd estimate that easily a thousand people enter from the southernmost checkpoint every morning on a week day, and all of them have to fill in the same visitor's pass cards. So these, too, are recorded as 'inbound travellers'.

[Guest dale1]

During low season TAKE CARE!! distributes Safer Sex Packs to about 30 bars in Pattayaland, Sunnee Plaza and Jomtien Complex every three weeks ..... in a totally unscientific survey that we have done during the most recent two distributions ...... there have been roughly 300 boys present in the 30 or so bars with about 150 customers ..... most interestingly about 50% of those customers have been in the top five bars ....... leaving the balance 50% for the bottom 25 bars .... as I say, totally unscientific done at random times of the night .... but gives a bit of a sense of the current scene.

[Guest xiandarkthorne]

Which makes me curious why the non-top 5 bars don't try to emulate the more popular ones and get a bit more business. Surely it can't be all that hard?

[firecat69]

Which makes me curious why the non-top 5 bars don't try to emulate the more popular ones and get a bit more business. Surely it can't be all that hard?

 

 

It is not very hard but they are incapable of understanding what is important to the customer or they are just plain stupid. Go down to Walking Street and they can find how to run a GoGo Bar but they would rather go out of business and complain about how hard it is.

 

1. Reasonable level of music

2. Variety of Boys

3. Fast Rotation of Boys

3.Mamasans who say "I don't Know" rather then lie

4. Clean toilets

5. Reasonably priced drink and Special Drink nights etc.

6. Boys who actually smile and do some dancing instead of just standing.

 

Now how hard is that????

 

Feel free to add the things you think are important???

[Guest]

7 Nice selection of guys, all of whom should look and be over 18.

8 No tattoos

9 Tight fitting trunks.

10 A mamasan who gets you your drink, then leaves you alone until further service is requested.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

Although I am not one, there are many guys who like tattoos.

[PattayaMale]

Last week when I was in Panorama BT. There were 4 about 9pm. None at Oscars, 2 at Serene. Saw no one go into either Copa or BBB but I wasn't looking that hard either.

 

Tonight (Sunday July 27, 2010) traffic on both South Pattaya and Second Road towards Central very heavy traffic. I think mostly Thais for the long Buddha holiday.

 

So when we talk about numbers, gay tourists, straight farangs, Bangkok Thais, Russian Tourist, a number may not tell much or at least tell what we (I) really want to know.

 

My main number concern, is where are the type of boys I want to visit.

[Guest fountainhall]

A bomb went of today in front of Big C on Rajadamri. More of this and high season tourist numbers will start plummeting.

 

Bangkok Post : Bomb injures 8 in Bangkok

[Gaybutton]

Although I am not one, there are many guys who like tattoos.

As long as there are already two number 3s, here's another one.

 

3. Piercings. I can do without the boys who have piercings all over the place.

 

I agree with lvdkeyes that many guys like tattoos. Many like the piercings. Many like mustaches, beards, hairy bodies, and whatnot. I think no matter what it is, somebody likes it. Certainly the boy himself likes it.

 

I've gotten to the point that I can handle a few piercings and tattoos, but I really don't like them. But I consider the idea that if these boys can handle being with someone who looks like me, then the least I can do is make a few concessions too, even though I'm the one footing the bill.

[ChristianPFC]

Thank you, dale1, that's what I was looking for! Now the numbers for high season for comparison, please.

[Guest dale1]

Christian ... I am afraid that you will have to wait for high season (if there ever is another one) for those figures ... TAKE CARE!! has only done this survey on the two most recent distributions of Safer Sex Packs (14 June and 6 July) ... however as for popularity resulting in the most customers (the top 5 bars), the same 7-8 bars remain at the top in the high season because, as other posters are saying, they simply know how to do "it" .. and whatever "it" is are the reasons that customers gravitate to those bars on a regular basis.

[Guest Geezer]

However, even when the TAT (Tourism Authority of Thailand) publishes those numbers, I'm very skeptical of the accuracy and honesty. The numbers they publish just don't jive with what anyone can see with their own eyes.

 

The word is jibe.

 

(v.) Informal To be in accord; agree: Your figures jibe with mine.

[Gaybutton]

The word is jibe.

I view that criticism with great contumely . . .

[Guest fountainhall]

I view that criticism with great contumely . . .

. . . perhaps even you refudiate it!

[Bob]

The word is jibe.

 

(v.) Informal To be in accord; agree: Your figures jibe with mine.

 

Actually, using "jive" is consistent with modern American slang (at least as practiced by the younger set). GB is from the "hood" or actually hipper than we know (alternatively, he screwed it up and accidentally got it right.... B) ).